Bob Castellini, the Cincinnati Reds CEO, stated that he expects to spend this offseason at the owner’s meetings earlier this month. That was first reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN on what has turned out to be an already outdated article in which he notes that a return of Sonny Gray could be a good fit – but Gray signed with the rival St. Louis Cardinals a few hours after the article was published.

The current payroll for the 2024 season is sitting around $34,000,000. That leaves a ton of potential wiggle room for “spending”. Now, when Bob Castellini says he expects the team to spend this offseason the question is how much? Is he basically saying that they aren’t going to truly just sit on their hands and add like $10,000,000 to payroll to add small pieces to the current roster? Or is he saying that the team is going to make significant additions in payroll to add to the current roster?

Mark Sheldon of Reds.com reported that the Reds have interest in Tyler Glasnow. He is not a free agent. He is in his final year of his contract with Tampa Bay and he is owed $25,000,000 for the 2024 season. Last season he made 21 starts with a 3.53 ERA, throwing 120.0 innings with 162 strikeouts and just 37 walks. That was the largest workload of his entire career, which began back in 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But it’s not just an issue of money for acquiring Glasnow. Sheldon reports that the Rays are looking to acquire a big league ready starter. While Cincinnati certainly has some of those kinds of guys, just about all of them are also under team control for the next five or six seasons. Making that kind of trade just goes against everything that the Cincinnati Reds have done….. well, forever. While they did give up a whole lot in the Mat Latos deal, he had multiple years of team control left and the team traded from depth in order to get the deal done. You never have enough starting pitching depth.

We’ll have to see how things shake out. The Reds interest in Glasnow does give some hope to the idea that they could add a somewhat high profile free agent. But there’s also far less risk involved in a 1-year contract for $25,000,000 than signing a free agent for $25,000,000 per season since anyone that would get that much would also require multiple seasons at that price. Of course signing someone in free agency also doesn’t require giving up talent to bring in a player like a trade does.

With the Reds young roster and next to no payroll moving forward it could allow them to actually go out and spend $25,000,000 per season on a multi-year contract on a player and still have tons of wiggle room to add more payroll if needed. With the uncertainty of the television contract moving forward it adds an interesting wrinkle. On one hand the club may hesitate to add too much payroll because with a likely lower payout from a future tv deal they could find themselves stretched thin depending on how much payroll they add. The flip side of that is that to increase your revenue without big tv deals you need people to buy tickets and the way you do that is by winning games. And winning games is done by adding good players, which tends to mean spending money.

From a purely business standpoint, there’s risk involved in both situations. If you add payroll and don’t win, it’s bad. But if you don’t add payroll and don’t win, it’s also bad. With more than half of the league likely to be looking for a new television broadcast deal in the next 12 months the financial landscape of the game could take a big turn. It’s going to be interesting to see how teams handle it.

84 Responses

  1. Votto4life

    We will see what “spending” means to Bob. I suspect his idea of spending is not most people’s idea of spending.

    I have been thinking of a possible Glasnow deal. The injuries and limited innings pitch is a concern. Spending money and prospects is also a concern. However, I think Glasnow is likely better than the Reds will do with the remaining free agents.

    The devil is in the details. If the Reds acquire Glasnow and extend him that’s great. If the plan is to give up prospects and turn around and trade Glasnow in four months, then I would prefer the Reds just pay cash only and sign Wacha or the like.

    I think when you weigh the good against the bad. I would lean towards trading for Glasnow, providing the asking price in terms of prospects isn’t too high.

  2. west larry

    The reds are not signing Otani ay 50 million for ten years. Would they consider offering Yamamoto 40 million a year for eight years? That would be a great deal if he wouldn’t mind pitching in a medium sized market.

    • Stock

      Everything I have read are suggesting 7 years and $200 – $225 million for Yamamoto or about $30 million a year.

    • redfanorbust

      IMO Reds are not the kind of a team (financial resources and/or willingness to spend) that should invest in such a large contract. If the guy turns out to be a bust or has a significant injury(s) a medium (i call us a small) market team has a terrible time for years trying to bouncing back.

  3. SultanofSwaff

    One year of Glasnow at that price point certainly puts a cap on what any team would give up. I suppose TB is looking for a ML ready starter with years of control. The Reds have that in abundance–question is which one would you be willing to trade? For me, Graham Ashcraft plus a prospect outside our top 10 would be my offer. GA’s low strikeout totals are a red flag that has me questioning whether he’ll be anything more than a #4…..and the Reds have plenty of #4’s. What they don’t have is a #1, and to get a highly motivated guy like Glasnow entering his platform year I feel the reward far outweighs the risk.

    By the same token, I’m guessing the Brewers are quietly shopping Corbin Burnes, who will also be entering his final year. He’s every bit Glasnow’s equal and will likely make ~$10mil less. That savings could be used to supplement the bullpen, so it could be the more astute move.

    • SultanofSwaff

      What’s NOT an option is doing nothing!

    • Mark A Verticchio

      I would not trade Ashcraft in that deal. He may be just as effective and Glasnow’s innings, or lack there of, is an issue.

      • Reaganspad

        I agree. No way i am trading Ashcraft

      • TR

        Add me to the ‘Do not trade Ashcraft’ crowd , at this time. He’s coming off a tough season. Patience needed. Ashcraft is a potential solid starter to build around.

      • JayTheRed

        Ashcraft has been really good at times and pretty bad at times too. So best case scenario is maybe a #3 starter in the rotation.

        Hopefully if the Reds keep him he is a little more consistent this year.

      • Reaganspad

        I the scenario you suggested he is a3

        But his stuff is so easy and moves so much. He gets through the mechanical issue he had the guy has #1 stuff.

        Greene and Abbott also flash top of rotation at times but I need to see more

    • Jon

      Is there any chance of Burnes being traded within the division?

    • Doc

      Ashcraft, with multiple years of control remaining, and a top prospect for one year of a $25MM pitcher who hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough to amass more than 120 innings in any of his major league seasons. NO THANKS. Haven’t we given away enough good pitchers for essentially no to minimal return. Look at Glasnow next year when he is a free agent.

      And don’t try to sell me the line that if they trade for him now, they get a draft pick if they make a qualifying offer. I’d take Ashcraft now over any draft pick in the 30s.

      Krall has spent a lot of effort and some very sound trading to acquire the pitchers we have. Give them the time to develop. There was a lot of chatter that the Reds window would be 2024-2026, but long term planning by GM never weres went straight out the window with a tease of a season.

      There is a good psychology study that shows that if you offer a small child a plate with one cookie on it now, and one with two cookies if he waits a fixed period of time, he will always take the one cookie now. Pretty much sounds like the Reds GM never weres; no patience for long term planning.

      • JayTheRed

        Maybe this is a case similar to Sonny Gray where he signs a new extension immediately as part of the trade?

    • Stock

      I agree with the others that Ashcraft is too much for a player who has yet to have a healthy season. Lyon Richardson and a prospect outside the top 20 makes sense to me.

    • redfanorbust

      IMO only way I trade Ashcraft for Glasnow is if it is straight up and Glasnow agrees to an extension.

    • David

      I mentioned this yesterday in another thread, and it got shot down.

      Glasnow is likely “overpaid” by the Rays for what he has done. I think Ashcraft still has a big upside to his career that has not been realized yet. What you see from Glasnow is what you are going to get.

      Also, the Mighty Cardinals are targeting him, too. Well, good luck.

      I thought it was humorous that Sonny Gray said he had “always wanted” to be a Cardinal. And that’s what money can buy….giving lip service to the company line.

      I still kind of like this guy Edwin Rodriguez, but….another lefty starter. Zowie!

      • Rob

        The Cardinals will not prove so mighty of foe when the cost part is taken out of the equation. It is going to cost any team $25M plus prospects to bring Glasnow onboard. We certainly can offer more in the way of prospects than the Birds. Advantage Reds ….if we want him bad enough. Same circumstances as last summer. If you want somebody, you outbid the other guy. The objective is to improve the team.

  4. LDS

    One year at $25M with a cost of younger, controllable ML pitchers doesn’t sound like a great deal. There’s no chance the Reds would re-sign him next year at a salary well above $25M, regardless of how effective he was this year. Seems like there are more strategic options available.

  5. Michael Wilson

    I would not want any of our MLB ready pitching involved in a trade for Glasnow. And if I’m correctly interpreting, that’s what the Rays want. Now if we could get Tatis from the Pads I’m open to whatever. He would take us to another level.

  6. Amarillo

    Glasnow in 8 years has never thrown as many starts and only once thrown as many innings as Brandon Williamson last year. For a guy who has only twice in his career thrown more than 90 innings who will make 25MM for 1 year, my highest offer would be like Jose Acuna. I’ll take him in a salary dump, but I’m not giving up anything of value for a guy who cannot be counted upon.

    • Stock

      This is a good offer. TB wants someone ML ready which Acuna is not but I am not sure they can get what they want for Glasnow. If you have a ML ready pitcher why not start him instead of Glasnow?

    • MBS

      Couldn’t they just select Acuna in the Rule 5 draft here in about a week? I agree with you though, I wouldn’t give up a major leaguer, or major league ready player.

      • Amarillo

        They would need to keep Acuna on the ML roster for the whole season if they select him in the Rule 5 draft. A trade means they can leave him down in the minors. He’s minimum a year away from being ML ready.

  7. earmbrister

    The Reds made a major commitment to get and develop young cost controlled pitching. They would be crazy to turn around and trade a top pitching prospect who has 5-6 years of team control for 1 year of just about anyone. Particularly someone who has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season.

    The two top targets for the Reds imo should be Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. They both keep the ball in the ballpark with low walk rates. Both have found their stride in their early 30’s. Lugo is expected to sign for 3 yrs/$42MM and Wacha for 3/$36MM per MLBTR. Just signing one of the two would greatly solidify a young and oft injured rotation. If everyone stays healthy, one of the pitchers with little IP to date (like Lodolo) can work his way back out of the bullpen. If all of the prospects advance and start turning potential into production, the FA vet signed can be moved in a couple of years for more young talent.

    Sign one of the two as a starter and then invest in a quality relief pitcher and/or a power hitting OFr. It should be an easy sell to attract a power hitting FA to GABP.

    • Mario

      earmbrister – definitely agree. Absolutely insane to trade Ashcraft, Williamson, Phillips, Petty, Greene, or Lodolo or any of the AA or AAA pitchers for a guy who is a free agent in 1 year. Bieber isn’t the same guy who won the Cy Young in 2020. Glasnow is injury prone. I would trade a guy like Fraley or Benson or India + a prospect like Acuna for either one or even both. They have $$$ to spend, would much prefer the free agent route – Rodriguez, Martinez, Lugo, Flaherty, Miley, etc still on the market.

    • VegasRed

      I second this! Sign them both and add Lodolo to the bullpen and possibly another of the guys who don’t make the rotation. Add another set up/potential FAcloser.

      Maybe Garver for middle of the order bat, occasional catcher/1B/DH/PH. Roll out the team.

    • brian

      I agree! Lugo and Wacha would fit the reds very well. Underrated pitchers. Not overly injury prone. Keep the ball on the ground. i hope we get these two FAs.

  8. Hotto4Votto

    Hard to figure out how a Glasnow trade works for both sides. Not sure the Reds should be dipping into starting pitching depth for a one year expensive rental with a spotty history of being available. He’d be nice to have as a salary dump for some lower level prospects, but not at the cost of his salary plus a legitimate starter/prospect.

  9. MBS

    Glasnow is not the guy, or we wouldn’t have heard his name. Krall keeps his trades pretty close to the vest. I also don’t see Krall trading away MLB pitching, or MLB ready pitching.

    • Mario

      MBS – I hope not. A bad trade could ruin this window of contention.

    • RedsMonk65

      I tend to agree. Reds seem to play it awfully close to the vest when considering trades/free agents. The fact that we’re hearing names like Glasnow probably means it’ll be somebody else — if anyone else. I don’t think Krall is going to “trade away the farm” by any means. Free agents likely make more sense than trades for the Reds. But a carefully put together trade package ….? We’ll see.

  10. scotly50

    I just don’t believe anything that comes out of any of the Reds Management staffs mouths.

  11. A.B.

    We’re now linked to Shane Bieber in trade talks (as well as the Cubs) according to mlbtraderumors.

  12. Klugo

    The skepticism over these statements speaks volumes on the relationship between the Reds fanbase and it’s ownership. I think it’s safe to say, the trust is gone. Put up or shut up.

    • Jon

      Exactly. Cardinals’ management said back during the season that they were looking to acquire three SP this offseason. Already done, and probably not finished adding. The Reds’ management and ownership give vague statements, seemingly to avoid any accountability. Are they going to add $80-100 million this winter in payroll for 2024? Or spend $10-15 million and call it a day and say “we tried, but the prices were too great”?

    • Votto4life

      I agree Klugo although I will concede I have never heard the words “We plan to spend” ever come out of Bob Castellini’s mouth.

      The Glasnow trade makes sense to me, from the Reds perspective. They get a quality pitcher and have no long term commitment. If Things don’t work out, they trade him at the deadline and total costs is only around $15 million. It sounds like a typical Reds move. Look like they are doing a lot, but they really aren’t doing a lot.

      I agree it would be stupid for the Reds to trade Ashcraft or any other MLB pitcher for Glasnow. I don’t think any team would offer that for Glasnow. Glasnow will be 31 next summer, so he isn’t all that young. Perhaps, Tampa will hang on to him until the trade deadline, but it would be unlike the Rays to wait and get far less in return.

      I think the Red’s can make the deal with India and a lower level prospect. If not, then yeah walk away.

  13. Mark Moore

    Trust factor with anything BobPhil says is way underwater. We’ll see what transpires when deals are announced.

    Hard pass on mortgaging young pitchers for a 1-year “rental”. It isn’t the $25MM as much as the loss of multiple years of control for me. I’m in the camp that says the WLB Dirty Birds overpaid for Gray. But that’s baseball right now.

    I also think bailing wire and bubble gum and hope won’t get us through the 2024 campaign. Pitching and at least one solid OF’er who hits well against either handed pitcher is still on the Wish List for this fan.

    • Mario

      It really doesn’t matter if Gray or anyone else is overpaid or not. The Reds can afford to overpay Sonny and only have a 3 year commitment and chose not to. I think Rodriguez is the only (realistic for the Reds) left on the free agent market that is comparable to Gray. The rest are several notches below. Snell, Montgomery, Yamamoto are going to get 6-7 year contracts = not at all realistic for this team. Ok maybe Stroman is in Rodriguez’ league although I am not a fan. Heard negative stuff about him and he also has the negative energy of being a Stupid Cub. If the Cubs don’t make him a very competitive offer, that speaks volumes.

  14. Bubba Woo

    I’ll believe it when I see it from Bob and Phil “Born on Third Base and convinced that he hit a triple” Castellini. The one downside to the Reds otherwise fun 2023 season was that they probably made around a 9 figure profit due to the low payroll, which will go right in their pockets. Gray for 3/75 mil would have been a great signing, payroll would STILL be lower than last year, and yet the Castellinis apparently balked. Gray is a proven top of the rotation starter, and the contract ends before you have to start paying the current rookies big money.

    Nick Krall has earned our trust. He got marching orders to slash payroll and somehow wound up with Speer, Marte, CES, McCain, and Abbott (with Petty, Phillips, and Arroyo waiting in AA-AAA). The Castellinis, however, have irrevocably broken that trust over the last 15 years. #StillSellTheTeamBob

    • PTBNL

      Phil “Born on Third Base and convinced that he hit a triple” Castellini

      🙂 :0 😉

      Too funny!

      • Mario

        I’m a fan of the term SoB – as in Son of Bob that the hosts of Locked on Reds mention. But that’s a good one too.

  15. J

    I’m having a little trouble with the math here. Reds would get a player worth about $25 million, and to get that player they’d have to pay $25 million AND a promising young player? This seems like the equivalent of paying at least $50 million for one year of Glasnow. If I’m the Reds and I’m taking on his entire $25 million salary, there’s no way on earth I’m giving up anything else other than maybe a pair of season tickets and an autographed Blandino bat. If some other team wants to give up $25 million and one of their best young pitchers for one year of a guy worth about $25 million, let them.

    • Greenfield Red

      You are correct. This makes no sense.

    • BK

      Agree, I expect the Reds to add pitching not shuffle pitching. For a trade to work WRT Glasgow, the Rays will have to be willing to take an infielder and/or lower-level prospects. The autographed Blandino bat would make a nice sweetener.

  16. RedsMonk65

    (Posted this on yesterday’s thread, but will do so again here since it still applies regarding Glasnow):

    Many valid points concerning caution around a Glasnow deal. There are always going to be pros and cons no matter what direction they take or who they sign/trade for. His injury history concerns me, too, but in all fairness only Ashcraft among Reds pitchers threw for more than 120 innings in 2023. I am more concerned about the prospects that might have to be relinquished. As far as the salary, I would insist on a contract extension (like with Sonny Gray when they traded for him) before agreeing to any deal with the Rays.

    One thought: Would you maybe give up someone like Brandon Williamson (and another lower-level prospect) for Glasnow (with extended contract)? I think I would seriously consider that, especially if the Rays threw in a young outfielder. We’ll see what happens.

    • Mauired

      Works for me. I was pleasantly surprised by Williamson last year but still not sold that he is more than a back of rotation starter. I guess 5 years of that kind of production is ok to give up for one year for a Cy Young contender and possible All Star Game Starting pitcher. Plus you get the extra draft pick if/when he turns down a qualifying offer a year from now. So probably have to throw in a prospect. I happily give up Austin Hendrick or Jay Allen to roll the dice on another pick instead. If Rays insisted on Sal Stewart, Reds would basically be getting a pick they just used on him a year and a half ago and are loaded with young infield talent. It’s definitely a gamble but just one year. And the payoff could be huge. *When healthy, Glasnow is a top 5 MLB Starting pitcher. Like deGrom he’s just rarely healthy.

    • Amarillo

      Brandon Williamson is significantly more valuable than Glasnow. Counting innings in the minors, Williamson threw more innings last year than Glasnow has ever thrown before. Glasnow has only made more than 15 starts once. So you would be trading 6 years of a guy who last year was roughly league average, for half a season of a guy with a career 3.89 ERA, which is very good but hardly top of the rotation caliber.

      I know the extension is a big part of this proposal, but for a guy who is already 30 and has never pitched a full season, that extension doesn’t feel prudent.

      • RedsMonk65

        All valid concerns. I am torn. On one hand, I want to keep all our young pitchers. On other hand, we really need a solid veteran among the rotation (wish we had kept Castillo) and getting one may involve giving up a youngster (though I would obviously not want to part with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, or Abbot).

        Still, I would seriously consider a trade for Glasnow — IF all the right pieces were in place, as stated above. No matter what happens, we will not be getting a valuable player for nothing or close to nothing. There will be a cost and/or risk for anyone. That’s just how it goes. Question is: Is the cost/risk worth it?

        In this case, though, it’s probably all moot. Since it’s been mentioned in the “rumor mill” that the Reds are interested in Glasnow and Bieber, then I doubt either will be coming to Cincinnati. A lot of smokescreens/feelers being put out there right now in order to obtain leverage. Whatever happens, I really don’t think Krall is going to part with much of the future for an injury-prone rental. That’s not going to happen.

      • Amarillo

        @RedsMonk65

        I’d love to have him also. I just think we are undervaluing our own players. We need to get better somehow, and it would be a bigger improvement if we can get guys without having to also remove players from the ML roster to do so.

        Your last point is exactly my thought as well. The moment I hear a rumor about the Reds, I generally assume there is zero chance of it happening, ha.

  17. BK

    In addition to Doug’s article, several have mentioned uncertainty associated with the Red’s regional sports network (RSN) contract. Frankly, I don’t see a lot of risk for the Reds, long or short-term.

    Near-term … reports have stated that the Reds RSN agreement with Bally Sports Network is separate from the larger bankruptcy proceeding as the Reds have an ownership stake associated with their contract. So, cashflows for 2024 should be unaffected.

    Long term … even if DSG dissolves its agreement with the Reds (a likely outcome), the Reds will get another RSN contract. While growing cord-cutting will likely negatively impact new RSN contracts, increases in MLB.TV subscriptions, Apple TV, etc., will make up for the difference. The problem isn’t that viewership, but how people get access to MLB games has changed.

    Lastly, the biggest issue with Diamond Sports Group/Sinclair is the enormous amount of debt they used to finance the acquisition of their RSN portfolio. In other words, they filed for bankruptcy because they struggled when their RSN portfolio could not generate sufficient cash flow to pay their contracts AND service the enormous debt.

    Implications. The Reds can absolutely afford to take on at least one sizeable contract. However, I think they will be very selective. While they certainly should have the sufficient cashflow to take on multiple free agent contracts over the next two years, they will want to avoid taking on ones that could impact their ability to retain the strong core of young players they’ve assembled. Moreover, they should want to keep some flexibility to plug holes in the future.

    One final note, according to Sportrac, the Red’s payroll sits at $42.4M due to buyouts/retained salaries from prior contracts. Their estimate does not include $3.5M of deferred salary owed to Ken Griffey, Jr.

    • Stock

      I think the Reds would be better off if their contract was dropped. They would be open to having teams bid on TV rights and this should be one of the most exciting teams in baseball over the next 5-10 years. Quite a bargaining chip for a new contract.

      • BK

        The bottom-line is I don’t think the RSN contract is weighing heavily on the Red’s Ownership team.

      • BK

        I think Stock means that having a good team (we know they pulled in great ratings in 2023) is good leverage with negotiating a new RSN deal if the joint venture with Bally evaporates.

  18. Jim Walker

    Nick Krall talked big at the deadline about having money and being a player, did nothing then offered excuses and subsequently doubled down on them after the season.

    Now BigBob is singing the same tune.

    In the meantime, Sonny Gray ends up in StLouis with the Reds being pegged as in the mix down to the end. At his introduction presser, Gray said he had the Cards as #1 on his list because “losing is not OK in StLouis”. Look around at where Sonny has been, add in the fact the Reds were trying hard to land him, and; it seems clear Gray was saying he’d seen enough of the Reds organization he wanted no part of them now.

    I’ll be a believer once they finally close a deal for impact pitching.

    • Mario

      St Louis offered the most $$$. I wouldn’t take that comment as a knock on the Reds. He went to the playoffs with the Reds in 2020 and in contention in 2021. I think he signs here if the $$$ were the same. St Louis is in trouble if Lynn, Goldschmidt, and Arenado don’t bounce back. If they get Yamamoto, then I think their offense could stink and they are still going to run away with the Central.

  19. kypodman

    Is there a filter in place for preventing anyone from saying a certain former Red’s pitchers name who in the past year played in Korea? I have used this particular players name in my past couple of posts and they posts were removed. I would like to know a reason why.

    • Stock

      I got the same thing Kypodman. Seems TB is a 4 letter word

    • Doug Gray

      Yes. And it will remain in place and don’t try to get around it.

      And to be clear – they weren’t removed. They never got posted in the first place. They automatically went to moderation and no one but the person who posts the comments ever sees them.

      • Melvin

        Perhaps Big Bob has a wad of one’s in his pocket and he’s ready to use them. 🙂

      • Doug Gray

        God I hope he’s wearing JNCO’s

      • kypodman

        And why is that? Did he ever do anything illegal? He was cleared of all charges and proven that his accuser set him up. He will pitch again at the MLB level, why not with the Reds. What does the Reds have to lose?

      • Doug Gray

        Because I set the rules for commenting here. That’s why. If you don’t like it you can go post somewhere else. This is the end of the discussion and I will delete all subsequent comments on this topic.

  20. Nick in NKY

    Agree with most of the comments here. I’m taking Glasnow for a prospect at his current contract, maybe a little more for a 2 year extension, but still not a current MLB starting pitcher. In the contract extension hypothetical, maybe Connor Phillips and a 10-20 prospect.

    Alternatively, Glasnow plus another salary dump and maybe you get him for next to nothing in terms of prospect cost.

  21. Redgoggles

    If we are modeling our organization after TB, I’m thinking it’s pretty doubtful we will be trading with them.

    Seeing the long-term economical value of youth, I think the clear move is to sign free agents (even if you have to overpay p/year to get them here – cost of losing culture) or trade for overpriced folks which shouldn’t cost as much in prospect capital.

    You could get somewhere if you package India and take on a Glasnow type contract.

    So no more Latos style deals.

  22. LarkinPhillips

    From a business standpoint, if you are going to be looking to negotiate a new TV Deal in the next 12 months, wouldn’t it make more sense to invest in the team and add a few players which hopefully results in winning. It would give the team more leverage to negotiate the deal if they had stars on the team and winning, especially if it looks like our “winning window” is just beginning.

  23. old-school

    I like the idea of getting a high AAV pitcher and the Guardians have a long track record of trading pitching for the future. I like Glasnow as an option too but in both Biebers case and the Rays, the devil is in the details. IMO, it makes zero sense to trade a young major leaguer ( Ashcraft/Williamson) as you are robbing Peter to pay Paul plus you lose years of a potential above average SP.

    I guess I would ask Doug or any other reds minors gurus how far away Chase Petty is from being a major league starter or if the Reds would use him in the bullpen at the MLB level anytime soon. He never pitched more than 4 innings, had some arm issues which delayed his 2023 start and is just 20. He would seem to be years away from cracking the rotation as a 25 start 150 inning a year guy. The other promising pitcher with an injury history and a lack of innings mileage is Lyon Richardson. I would think Richardson could help as a spot starter or long man out of the bullpen this year, but that’s it. Those would be the two pitching prospects I would be willing to part with if the right deal came along for a game changing SP.

  24. redfanorbust

    IMO no Glasnow trade unless he agrees to an extension. Aprox 4-6 years of control of a young SP is not worth one year of a oft injured potential ace.

    • BK

      Take a look at the Reds top prospects over at Redsminorleagues.com. They have six starters among the top 25, including a some very high ceiling pitchers, who may all start at AA or higher. Given the injury history for both Beiber and Glasnow, extensions are not likely in the Reds best interest.

    • BK

      I am pretty sure everyone, including the Reds FO, agree that trading from our Major League starting pitchers would be a terrible exchange.

      • Votto4life

        Yeah, I don’t see the Reds trading ML Ready or near ready pitching for one year of a bounce back candidate. India (who I am not sure I would include either) and a lower tiered prospect maybe, but trading pitching for pitching, while also taking on salary, just doesn’t make sense.

        I also don’t think the Reds see Bieber and Glasnow as the same pitcher. The $12.5 million difference in salary may not matter to us, but I can promise you, it matters to the Reds.

  25. Votto4life

    It would be nice if the Reds would just sign a top tier pitching free agent. Then you have them for multiple years to serve as an anchor to the rotation. Sonny Gray was the perfect target.

    Now, they are in a position where they will likely have to give up talent in return for a pitcher who will only be with the Reds for a single season.

    I can’t imagine either Bieber or Glasnow will be thrilled pitching their FA agent year at GABP.

    Regardless, the Reds need more pitching. If they go with what they have now, they will be wasting another year of their window.

  26. donny

    I would have no problems trading Brandon Williamson, Lyon Richardson, Connor Phillips, Jonathan India, Christian Roa as starting pitchers and then India. With Petty and Lowder not to far away.
    -Brandon Williamson, because i think he’s the wink link of all the reds well known starting pitchers.
    -Lyon Richardson, has good stuff, but to me he’s behind the rest of the pitchers. He was a SP in the past so the reds could trade him as both sp and rp type.
    -Connor Phillips, because i am not sold he will be a SP in the future.
    -Jonathan India, because of the circumstances.
    -Christian Roa, because i like the other pitchers better. Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott, Lowder, Petty. and perhaps Floyd.
    I can see the reds trading these guys.

    With that being said, do we need an ace depends on what we give up on one-year control. I think the reds could get both of those guys Glasnow and Bieber with those guys a mentioned. Maybe throw in Julian Aguiar as well. Then after the year get 2 draft pics after qualifying offer of the two.

    With that being said, the problem with signing guys like Lugo or Wacha is that they want around 3- year deals. That would push some of our promising pitchers back. Guys like Lowder and Petty.

    With that being said, I would have no problem with going after Glasnow or Bieber or both, but i would prefer to Sign a guy like Lugo or Wacha then maybe trade them after a year or two. Then after signing one of those guys use those trade pieces that i mentioned and go after Luis Robert the center fielder from the white Sox. I would include TJ Friedl and India in that deal to get it done. With those two being the headliner. Robert is nice upgrade over Friedl with more speed and power and better defender.
    This is what i am thinking.

    • donny

      So, in other words i would sign Lugo or Wacha and go after Luis Robert.

    • JayTheRed

      If we are going to trade for starting pitching go after Cease from the White Sox.

    • Rob

      I also think one to two 1-2 year contract starting pitchers fit best with our young ,high potential starting pitching. Even Gray at 3 years seems like too much to me. If we could get the right guy -175 innings and 13 wins for each of the next 2 years – I would trade a couple of our younger not quite ready prospects. With our abundance of prospects, I am willing to risk “losing” a trade to significant improve this team in 2024-2025. Same with Robert, and Bellinger.

  27. Mike

    If you can afford Glasnow, you can afford Yamamoto. Get it done, Bob

    • JayTheRed

      Wouldn’t that be a shocker for the baseball world! haha.. highly doubt it but could you see everyone’s faces if it happened.

  28. TR

    If the Reds have the money, which they apparently do, then go after a young, under age 30 pitcher like Dylan Cease of the White Sox. To get to the top, the Reds need to give up something good to get a needed starting pitcher without, so far, an injury history.

    • Jeremiah

      I agree, Dylan Cease would be the guy for me too. Bieber, Glasnow, if you look at their numbers haven’t pitched a ton of innings. The Reds to build a World Series type of team probably aren’t going to do it with big Free Agent Signings especially in pitching, but trading some of their coveted prospects for a Dylan Cease or other really good young player or outfielder (such as Luis Robert).