What a difference a day makes. After Cincinnati took the Cardinals to task with a 17-run victory on Friday night, St. Louis flipped the script and took the Reds to task on Saturday night as they put together three different multi-run innings in a 15-6 drubbing that eliminated Cincinnati from the playoff chase.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (82-79) |
6 | 14 | 1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals (70-91) |
15 | 13 | 0 |
| W: VerHagen (5-1) L: Phillips (1-1) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
If you were a Reds fan watching this game and knew what had to happen, the first inning was nightmare fuel. Connor Phillips, making his fifth start of his big league career, threw 12 pitches without a strike to begin the bottom of the 1st before exiting the game with the bases loaded and no outs. Cincinnati was going to ask their bullpen to threw nine innings in a true must-win game.
Fernando Cruz entered from the bullpen and got ahead of Jordan Walker 0-2, but then a splitter hung at the top of the zone and Walker crushed a 2-run double. Ivan Herrera followed up with a 2-run double of his own. Luken Baker then picked up an RBI double and it was 5-0 at the end of the inning.
After the Reds got two men on in the top of the 2nd they would try what feels like their favorite move of stealing second with the hopes of a throw to the bag before trying to steal home, but Noelvi Marte – who extended his hitting streak to 15 games with a single earlier in the inning – was thrown out at the plate to end the inning.
The Cardinals picked up right where they left off. A single, double, and a 3-run homer from Lars Nootbaar made it 8-0 and ended the day for Fernando Cruz. Buck Farmer entered the game and gave up a double, walk, and then a 2-run double in the inning and before you could think about the implications of the loss it was 10-0.
Ben Lively took over for Cincinnati in the bottom of the third and he gave up a single and an RBI double that made it 11-0. He’d get three straight ground outs after that to get out of the inning. The Reds got on the board in the next half-inning after Noelvi Marte, TJ Friedl, and Elly De La Cruz all singled with two outs in the inning to bring a run around the bases.
In the top of the 5th inning the Reds offense went back to work. Nick Senzel homered to make it 11-2, but that was just the start of things. Spencer Steer doubled, Christian Encarnacion-Strand walked, the Cardinals went to their bullpen and it didn’t matter as Tyler Stephenson and Noelvi Marte both doubled off of Andre Pallante to bring in three more runs and make it 11-5.
Neither team did anything in the 6th, but Cincinnati added to their run column in the 7th when Noelvi Marte crushed a 1-out home run – his 4th hit of the game. A pitching change brought in lefty Matthew Liberatore and he got two straight ground outs to end the inning.
After back-to-back lineouts by the Reds they were able to get two singles in a row from Nick Martini and Spencer Steer in the 8th to start putting pressure on the Cardinals once again. Christian Encarnacion-Strand then walked to load the bases for Cincinnati, but Tyler Stephenson would ground out to strand all three runners as the dreams of a postseason began to fade.
Elly De La Cruz, who made several outstanding defensive plays on Friday night, began the bottom of the 8th with another one on a shallow fly ball into left-center field as he made a running catch over his shoulder while sliding.
What an incredible effort by Elly De La Cruz! ? pic.twitter.com/hTI77bDJcW
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) October 1, 2023
The rest of the inning didn’t go well. Ian Gibaut would give up two singles and a walk while recording one out in the middle before exiting with the bases loaded and giving way to Alexis Diaz. He walked the first two batters he saw before giving up a 2-run single that made it 15-6. The Reds then went to the bullpen once again, calling on Alex Young to try and mercifully end the inning. He did just that, needing two pitches to get a ground out to send the game to the 9th.
Cincinnati needed nine runs in the 9th inning to keep the game going. They saw seven pitches while being retired in order. The loss ends the Reds chances of making the playoffs.
Key Moment of the Game
Connor Phillips 12th consecutive ball thrown to start the game and load the bases. It led to a pitching change with no outs in the 1st inning and set the Cardinals up for a big inning, which was followed by another big inning and they never looked back.
Notes worth noting
Cincinnati used nine pitchers to throw eight innings. Sam Moll and Lucas Sims were the only pitchers to record more than one out and not allow a run.
The pitching staff walked 10 batters and had just three strikeouts.
Noelvi Marte’s 15-game hitting streak is the longest by a Reds rookie since 1946 when Benny Zientara had a 16-game streak. He’s now hitting .318 in 34 games since being called up.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday October 1st, 3:15pm ET
Hunter Greene (4-6, 4.71 ERA) vs Miles Mikolas (8-13, 4.82 ERA)
“The pitching staff walked 10 batters and had just three strikeouts”
That’s just not acceptable.
Agree, but we had a guy with no business starting a meaningful September game out there because we had no other options.
Sad tonight. But this season has been so much fun, and way beyond expectations. Proud of this team, excited for the future. Can’t wait for 2024. Go Reds!
Also, a huge thank you to Doug, all the contributors, and all the fans at RLN. You all make baseball better. Thank you!
“Noelvi Marte’s 15-game hitting streak is the longest by a Reds rookie since 1946 when Benny Zientara had a 16-game streak. He’s now hitting .318 in 34 games since being called up”
He’s the biggest surprise for me. He’s better than he was in AAA.
I’m sure it was tough for Seattle to give up Marte in the Castillo trade.
Agree. Castillo has had a great season this year, but he’s given up nine runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts. Seattle barely missed out on last wild card spot.
Good season. Walking 10 guys to eliminate ourselves from the post season should send the message on what needs to change in the offseason.
The pitching staff just needs to get healthy. Can you imagine having a healthy Lodolo,Ashcraft,Abbott (fresh),Greene in aug. and sept.
Jon – I’m not sure these guys are capable of being healthy. Very few starting pitchers are nowadays. But there are a few they stay relatively healthy year in and year out.
So no 2024 plan should count on the big 3 being healthy. Got to get a couple Veteran starting pitchers in here. 1 by trade 1 by free agency. Let the young guys fight for the last 3 spots and provide depth for the inevitable injuries of the big 3.
No, the pitching staff needs help (outside improvements) if we want to contend next year.
Don’t be fooled. The Reds need to get one minimal, probably 2 good starting pitchers this winter. I would love them to be ace types but as long as they are around a 4.00 or lower ERA guys who can pitch more than 4 innings, prefer 6 innings an outing but can’t be too picky. The free agent class of starters is a little slim this winter. But there are some good choices out there for sure. Also would love to see one more good bullpen piece to add to our group. Raise the bar a little. Payroll should no longer be an issue with Griffey finally off the books and Votto should not be getting 20+ million if they resign him.
Offense wise I feel like we don’t need much at all. Can you all imagine a full year of all these great young players we have had this year.
I think the young pitching staff, especially the bullpen, simply ran out of juice at the end of the season. Krall will need to find a way to have depth in the bullpen both at the MLB level and at AAA. It will take some creativity to find players who can contribute in the majors but will sign minor league deals.
I also would not be opposed to swapping some of the second wave position player talent with some more pitching talent. I wouldn’t trade prospects for rental players but I’d definitely do swaps for similar levels of prospect talent that fills needs.
I think Krall is up for this challenge.
We were close, even with all the injuries, especially to the pitching.
Hope to have Graham, and Nick back. Abbott, ran out of gas, but looked good.
A couple of guys called showed promise.
Wait till next year, has some meaning finally.
Need to be selective in the FA market, but not pick up retreads again.
Enjoy the off season all.
Maybe we can pick up a pick or two, based on Rookie of the year ballets.
I’m seeing $83 mil payroll this year which ranks 26th. Subtract Votto and Farmer and you’re under $70. They could spend 40 and still be well below the middle. They need to do something!
According to baseball reference they have 15 mil committed to next year which included the7 million buyout of Votto. Senzel, Sims, law, India Stephenson, dunn, young, antone and Fraley are arbitration elgible. The rest are still pretty arbitration minimum players.
There is a ton of money to spend even if they stay cheap and spend this years salary of 83 million. I think it should be expected to be over 100 million and closer to 120 if they want to actually compete for a WS as the fans were told the savings the last two years would go back into the teams competitive window which is clearly open now.
The attendance was the best it’s been in years. this should be evidence that the investment is worth it.
Subtract Moose will be big as well. I hope they bring Farmer back he did a good job eating some innings in a positive was. His 1.16 WHIP is great for a middle inning reliever.
I’d like to see India and Martini back next year. Senzel has to go or his own good. Maybe he can sign with a rebuilding team to get more playing time. I enjoyed Votto, but it’s time for him to start his next career. We need to add a bat that crushes the ball-maybe J T Martinez? And one or two relievers and a good starter please.
Does anyone know Moll’s status? He has been great for the team since acquiring him.
“They could spend 40 and still be well below the middle”
Never going to happen. They will be in the bottom 5 in terms of payroll. Maybe at the bottom
Disagree, which with you does not happen often. I feel like they will be at least the same payroll, but I predict there will be a pump up to maybe 100 million possibly.
Agreed IRM. The table is now set. NO excuses for 100 loss type of teams or mediocrity. I don’t know specifically who is going to be a FA this year but Reds had better get serious about spending some big bucks to shore up this first time in a long time young, promising team.
I’m sad, but this was the most fun season in a decade. Watching these guys develop has been a treat, and I feel good about the direction of the team for the first time in a long time.
Phillips has a ton of talent, but lost the game for the Reds in the first inning. He must be eating himself alive, but he just couldn’t put the ball in the zone.
I did not see the game, but was listening on the radio, and from the play by play, it’s not like he was just missing the zone or the umpire was squeezing him.
So it goes. Maybe they win tomorrow and end on a high note. I ‘m guessing that they flop tomorrow, but that’s just being masochistic.
The Reds need at least ONE solid major league experienced pitcher. I don’t know how they get “him”, as that’s what EVERYBODY wants…to improve their pitching.
Pitching wins games….PERIOD.
If they could lower their team ERA by a run (which is a big jump!), and score more consistently, they could easily get into the mid-90’s in victories. And frankly, I don’t see any of the rest of the teams in the division getting massively better next year, short of acquiring lots of major talent, and that would cost a LOT of money. The Cubs need pitching too (and are the one team in the division which does have LOTS of money). The Brewers need some more offense. The Cardinals need a LOT of pitching and two of their key players (Arenado and Goldschmidt) are not getting younger, and the Pirates….well, they need a lot of everything.
Actually it was lack of hitting that doomed the Reds.
Oh yeah? This is a team that that’s 5th in the NL in Runs, OBP, SLG, and OPS… but it’s hitting that killed them? They were also 6th in BB and 1st in SB. (Of course then we’re also also 1st in CS). Now, they were 9th in AVG so maybe that one stat makes you think hitting killed them but frankly, their offense was the strength.
They consistently rank last in error and fielding percentage and in the 13th-14th in NL range on most pitching stats. So if you said defense and pitching killed them, I’d say you’re right.
@ Tom….Yeah.
They are 18th since August 1st, when the collapse started.
A big chunk of this team just played their first season in the Bigs. They are probably wiped out. And sorry, I have to agree with David, starting pitching is what doomed this team in the 2nd half. They needed to add at least one guy at the deadline.
Okay they were 18th offensively since August 1st. Care to inform us where their starters were ranked since then? Get back to us when you get that little tidbit of info.
It’s certainly been a fun, exhilarating, and sometimes exhausting summer. Thanks, Redlegs for an entertaining season. Let’s hope we build on it next year. Get some pitching, please.
It concerns me that Moose is going to be a free agent next season, and that this organization will be eager to show it’s serious about winning by signing someone to a four-year $72 million deal. And they always prefer guys with ties to the organization…
Lol
That’s funny!
Of course it concerns you? Just curious, what is it that you like about the Reds? Everything they do seems to earn your wrath. Maybe another team that does what you like might be a better option for you. Never mind, that team doesn’t exist.
While the players on the field busted their butts……
The FO was more concerned about the future several years from now than the opportunity at hand.
The manager seemed more concerned with his master plans which the arrival and rise of the rookies made largely irrelevant except to cost young guys playing time.
The pitching coordinator’s preoccupation with fancy breaking pitches over pitchers who could simply pitch by spotting a live fastball around the edges of the zone and throwing a breaking ball off of the fastball led to a pitching staff which walked too many hitters and gave up crucial hits after pitching themselves into hitters’ counts.
I loved the kids but despair for their future as Reds if the management doesn’t address its issues.
Yep
It is not about how many games they won. It is about how many games the same talent and effort could have won if it had been better focused and directed by its leadership.
Yeah I know.
Absolutely.
Maybe someone working on a psychology dissertation will interview everyone associated with this blog and figure out why some of us fall into the “this was a better season than I expected, but could have been even better” camp, while others fall into the “this was a better season than I expected, so I’m very satisfied” camp. I have a feeling that age plays some role. If someone has been socialized in an era when the Reds were “supposed” to lose, this outcome must seem pretty great. But I was socialized during an era when the Reds were “supposed” to win, and I just can’t get too excited about almost making the expanded playoffs after being in first place at the all-star break. I don’t really care what the average age of the players is or how many starting pitchers got hurt. My expectations are that a team with the ability to be in first place at the all-star break has enough ability to make the playoffs, and falling a little bit short of that goal isn’t satisfying to me.
To be honest, the stretch from the middle of May to the All-Star break was maybe the best part of the season the Reds’ team had in them.
Good or great teams have long stretches of really good baseball. Even lousy, last place teams will play well….for a relatively short stretch.
That stretch of “good baseball” by the Reds had us convinced that they had “arrived”.
Well, the had not arrived, as they could not sustain that level of play.
It is sometimes convenient to blame David Bell (and he does some truly exasperating things), but the Reds (and especially their pitching) could not sustain that high level of play. Whether that is Derick Johnson’s fault, or just a lack of talent, I truly can’t tell from here.
This team could have done so much more than it has done in 2023, and a lot of that blame goes to how the pitching performed, especially the starting pitching.
I am not convinced the Reds “Top Men” (ie, the ownership group) will do what is needed in the off-season. So next year could be even more frustrating as we watch mis-management mislead some of the great young talent this team now has.
Most of Joey Votto’s career was wasted playing for some pretty lousy teams (post 2012). And the fault was with Walt Jocketty and the Top Men (and we all know who that is). I hope Nick Krall and his front office team don’t repeat the same mistakes of Jocketty.
I agree that the age of users probably plays a role. Those of us who have been around forever but haven’t seen a playoff series win since 1995 are tired of waiting and hoping for the future that hasn’t ever really come.
Those who are not quite as “advanced” in age are going to likely have more patience to wait around for the future to arrive since they haven’t been waiting for it to happen for nearly three decades.
I think it’s the mature vs. childish camp. Pretty simple really.
David, I agree with most of what you’ve said, but I’m not sure about “they could not sustain that level of play.” The only reason to believe they could not sustain that level of play is that they didn’t sustain it. But not doing something and being unable to do it are two different things. I wasn’t very productive today, but that’s only because I chose to watch lots of sports. My lack of productivity wasn’t because I couldn’t sustain the same productivity I had yesterday. I just didn’t do it.
I believe a team that has enough talent to go 44-36 on the road ought to be able to do better than 38-43 at home, and a team that can win in Houston, Baltimore, and Los Angeles ought to be able to handle Pittsburgh and Washington at home. Even with the starting pitchers dropping like flies, it never seemed to me that this team didn’t have enough talent or enthusiasm to make the playoffs, but it often felt like they’d find a way not to. The players didn’t execute well, Bell didn’t manage well, and the front office didn’t get enough help. But none of that HAD to happen.
Take, as just one easy example: Steer swung at a 2-0 pitch he should have taken. All he had to do was stand there, which he’s certainly capable of doing whenever he chooses to. The fact that he swung at what would likely have been ball three, and the fact that his manager allowed him to do it, is just hard for me to accept. That doesn’t feel like “could not sustain that level of play,” it feels more like “chose not to sustain that level of play.” Perhaps this is just semantics, but to me there’s a difference.
Frankie,
It’s definitely true that “wait til next year” was a lot easier to say when I hadn’t been saying it for 30 consecutive years. I can only imagine what it must be like to be 94 years old and watching the Reds come *that* close to making the playoffs, and seeing all these people saying “but it’s fine, because the team beat everyone’s expectations! And the future is bright!” I would probably want to strangle those people. But I’m still “young” enough to just find them mildly annoying.
I’m not childish Chris. It’s easy for me to see what NK is doing here. I’m surprised so many of those “enlightened” or “seasoned” fans can’t see it or refuse to see it. This is more than a rebuild, it is a rebuild that is also cleaning up at least 20 years of poor decision making by an organization that was mired in short term fixes and puffs of smoke meant to pacify a fan base that believed the front office knew what it was doing.
From the Griffey trade and contract, through the Votto contract, through the trades of 2015-2016, and the free agent “reaches” in 2020, the organization had become bloated and not competitive. Too much kicking the can down the path. Too many press conferences announcing huge unsustainable contracts to 30 year olds who would age-out before said contract did.
I believe he will spend money this Winter. He has to, or he will lose what’s left of the fan base. One good starting pitcher (maybe Sonny or Giolito) on a 4/80 or 4/90 contract with annual opt outs… or one good right handed hitting outfielder with the same 4/80 or 4/90 with op outs, and two reliable additions to the bullpen (Chapman would be nice) is now easily affordable.
This team CAN win the WS in 24. A couple of moves and a couple of breaks, and they can be there. It’s not pie-in-the-sky or “childish”. It’s right there, and so many on the board can’t see it… or refuse to see for some unknown reason.
I can already see the posts on RLN next year when they are winning claiming they knew 24 was the year… when those same guys who complained bitterly about the lack of a trade for a starter in 23 at the deadline. There are a few of us who have said 24 or 25 is the year, for months is not a couple of years, and applauded the front office not giving in the to the childish (I’ll use your term here) demands of a fan base who doesn’t see what they are doing.
Those on RLN want the Reds to win and win big. Myself included. I could see no reason to throw good money after bad, or good prospects in trade for a bad pitcher, in 23. Still can’t. I’m surprised there are guys on here still criticizing the Reds for not making that trade 2 months ago… despite the horrific results ALL the traded starting pitchers made since the end of July.
Let’s all start to rally around the 24 and 25 Reds. This time will be different. That should be something we can all get behind.
David, are you David Bell? Really, how can you sluff off all of mistakes Bell has made-such as leaving Marte out of a lot of games. and using someone twice his age batting a hundred points lower? And the overuse of the bullpen? And batting Benson near the bottom of the order when he is hitting more than most of the guys in the lineup? I could go on and on….and I certainly don’t blame him for that last blowout loss…but he has made many critical mistakes.
“Take, as just one easy example: Steer swung at a 2-0 pitch he should have taken. All he had to do was stand there, which he’s certainly capable of doing whenever he chooses to. The fact that he swung at what would likely have been ball three, and the fact that his manager allowed him to do it, is just hard for me to accept.”
No major league manager is giving one of their team’s best hitters a take sign at 2-0. None.
You have very high expectations of what other people (like MLB players and coaches) should be doing to entertain you and you can be l cruel when that team doesn’t rise to your expectations. So, yeah, call the psychologists.
I’m grateful I’m getting to witness the rebuilding of this once great franchise. And I realize this year’s bumpy ride is part of the rebuild. I don’t want to wish my life away but I am excited about what next year brings.
WKU said.
No major league manager is giving one of their team’s best hitters a take sign at 2-0. None.
Just the teams that play the Reds do….Thus all of the walks by all of their pitchers
wkuchad,
I’m not convinced that “no” managers would tell their players to take a 2-0 pitch in that situation, but even if that’s the case, most managers wouldn’t have to because they’d know their players understood the situation well enough to know they should probably force a new pitcher to throw a strike when their team is down by many runs. Bell is managing ROOKIES who are in a playoff race, and if he’s just trusting them to figure it out on their own, he’s failing. The evidence is that Steer swung at balls that he should have been taking. This isn’t rocket science. When young guys do stuff they shouldn’t do, and they do it time and time and time again, it’s safe to say they aren’t being given proper guidance.
Tom, you’re right, I do have “very high expectations” for guys who getting paid millions of dollars to play baseball for entertainment purposes. I expect them to make smart decisions about baseball and very few dumb ones. So sue me.
“you can be cruel when that team doesn’t rise to your expectations.”
Cruel?! By saying things like “this is a dumb lineup” or “David Bell is bad at this” or “some people seem to be willing to tolerate dumb lineups”? Does that sort of thing come across as “cruel” to you? Can you give me a specific example of a cruel thing I’ve said?
Oops… I meant Bell WAS managing rookies who WERE in a playoff race…
“I think it’s the mature vs. childish camp. Pretty simple really.”
hahaha Really? Is everyone that disagrees with your point of view childish? hahaha
Those have been around awhile realize just how difficult it is for a team to win a championship. A third place team with a .500 record is no where a
The past 30 years have been one continuous rebuild. The folks who have been around that long know that when the team starts to play well and it seems like things are coming together, the front office starts selling off pieces.
David is spot on. They played amazing for about a month and a half. You can blame Bell, pitching, whatever. They were amazing mostly because McLain and Elly literally carried the team, especially Elly. When Elly’s bat went quiet so did the rest of the team.
Maybe someone working on a psychology dissertation will interview everyone associated with this blog and figure out why some of us can’t seem to find some joy in a season, even though it could have been even better. I’m not talking about being satisfied with the final outcome, since the only thing that would be satisfying to some of us is winning the World Series…anything short yet another failure.
Wow J, Steer swings at a 2-0 pitch which he shouldn’t have because, (when we see it afterwards on the screen that)+ it was ball and it was Bell’s fault???
And, so what I’m hearing you say is because the Reds were able to beat really good teams 2 out of 3 games, demonstrated they had the talent to beat not so good teams 2 out of 3. But you know, I can par 2 or 3 hard holes on the golf course…and triple bogey the easiest…and my handicap is too embarrassing to mention. And I’m not playing against someone else, just me and the golf ball. I’m just not good enough (yet) to par more holes than I bogey. I’ve been playing the game for years and years and running out of time to get better. At least our Reds are just starting out.
Disagree
I was at the game and my friend and I spoke about Steer’s at at bat. We didn’t think he was thrown a strike. We talked about knowing what’s going on in the game. If I remember correctly there was a new pitcher brought in and threw two pitches that weren’t close. Why not make him throw a strike? He didn’t. It looked like he swung at three bad pitches. How can you blame that on David Bell? I would find it hard to believe that players, coaches, manager all talk about those situations. Steer wanted to make something happen, but didn’t make good choices.
I’m hoping India brought Phillips in the middle of the clubhouse and said some important things:
We let you down. We expected a lot out of a 22 year old and you came through for us. We didn’t pitch well after you exited and we left too many men on base. We didn’t get that big hit when we needed and we let you down.
I’m hoping something like that was done to help the kid out. I was thinking this was an easy win considering how he looked in his last start.
I am so glad management didn’t trade for a two month rental pitcher.
Anyone who disagrees with me willing to propose the trade that should’ve happened? What pitcher should the Reds acquired and what do you believe they should have given up?
If there were moves that would have made the Reds world series contenders I would have said go for it. I’m not make a trade(s) to maybe make the playoffs and mortgaging the Reds future.
Nice post TR.
I’ll add that it might not be Bell’s fault that Steer swung, but it’s his fault if he doesn’t remedy it. And there’s plenty of evidence that he doesn’t….because it keeps happening.
Teams that beat us usually just let us beat ourselves by being willing to take walks from our pitchers.
“I am so glad management didn’t trade for a two month rental pitcher.”
Maybe I’m mistaken, but I don’t think too many people were begging for the team to trade for a two month rental pitcher unless it could be done without giving up any major prospects. I know a lot of us were begging for a guy who’d be under team control for at least one more year, recognizing the fact that the Reds will probably want to (or at least should want to) add a proven starter for 2024 one way or another. Those who wanted a rental were mostly suggesting the Reds could part with some of their lesser prospects, Senzel, India, etc. I don’t recall anyone suggesting the Reds should give up three of their top five prospects for a rental.
“Anyone who disagrees with me willing to propose the trade that should’ve happened?”
This kind of question seems to assume what a lot of people assume, which is that the only guys available via trade were the handful of names we were hearing about. I would assume there were probably other guys that COULD have been traded for if the Reds had aggressively sought those guys and offered up the right package of players. I’m not going to waste my time combing through all the major league rosters looking at every #3-#5 starter and trying to guess which one could be have been acquired for the right price. I just find it hard to believe that NO team in MLB would have been willing to part with ANY decent starting pitcher without expecting some incredibly unreasonable return. When you’re sitting on guys like Barrero, Arroyo, Phillips, Collier, Hinds, Stewart, Jorge, etc., not to mention some major leaguers or fringe major leaguers you should be perfectly happy to throw in, it’s just impossible to believe that NO reasonable trade could possibly exist.
I simply don’t buy that the Reds did everything possible to make that happen starting from the time when it seemed obvious that the Reds were going to be in the playoff mix but were still throwing Weaver out there every five days — which was WAY before the trade deadline. I think they waited until very close to the deadline to start getting serious, because they didn’t really believe this team was going to be as good as it turned out to be, and almost certainly missed out on some potential trades that could have been made a few weeks earlier when they weren’t being serious enough about it. Every time Weaver took the mound I’d complain that they still hadn’t managed to find even a legitimate #4 or #5 pitcher to take his place. I don’t believe they were trying. If you have evidence that they were trying, please share.
Great post TJ. I completely agree with you. I love Steer, but I was so frustrated watching his AB. I couldn’t believe he was swinging at the crap given to him starting with the 1st pitch. I also agree regarding the trades. I personally only wanted Clevinger, but was guarded on that too based on his personal life. We did make one trade that brought us an excellent reliever, and we still see guys complaining about what we gave up. I’ve come to realize that the organization can do no right with many in here.
And yes J, people in here were going crazy wanting a trade. Heck, we had people offering up CES even. So yes, you are clearly mistaken.
Jimminy Xmas,
J, you just don’t know what efforts Krall made to get some pitching help at the trade deadline. You are outside looking in and all you saw was nothing happened…but you cannot know why. Maybe no one wanted Barreo, Lopez, Senzel, Fairchild or any of our other fringe players. Maybe they were only interested in Marte who hadn’t come up yet. Maybe they had no desire to part with players that they themselves might be ready to call up (which is what we wanted, right, to bring them up ASAP to help out).
“The FO was more concerned about the future several years from now than the opportunity at hand.”
I think I have a bit rosier of an outlook than you @Jim. I agree that they sacrificed this year for the next several years. I agree it was a mistake, and I wish they signed FA’s in the offseason, but even more importantly traded for pitching help before the trade deadline.
That said, our team is getting pretty stacked. Currently we have 6 infielders for 4 spots. We have 3 starting quality OF’s in the OF currently. We have 3 more OF prospects that destroyed AA this year. 1, 2, or 3 of them will likely be a factor on the team in 24. The roster is going to be “Bell proof” as many like to say on RLN.
“The pitching coordinator’s preoccupation with fancy breaking pitches over pitchers who could simply pitch by spotting a live fastball around the edges of the zone and throwing a breaking ball off of the fastball led to a pitching staff which walked too many hitters and gave up crucial hits after pitching themselves into hitters’ counts.”
I don’t think we have a problem there either. I counted 51 starts by guys who either were not ready for the MLB, Phillips, Richardson, Spiers, and Stoudt, or guys who’s shouldn’t be in the MLB Weaver, Kennedy, Overton, and Lively. Add in a few bullpen games, and we had 1/3 (54) of our games being pitched by suboptimal pitchers. We still won over 1/2 of our games. If we cut down the starts by suboptimal pitching to 1/6, that would likely result in 50% more wins in those 26 starts, or 14 more W’s. Even if I’m being a bit generous, we should win 25% of those starts, or 7 more W’s. Now we’re a 89 – 96 win team.
We have 5 guys who if healthy are good MLB pitchers, and guys like Phillips, and Richardson look to be near ready. We need to sign a FA starter, or two to sure up the rotational depth. Let Phillips, and Richardson continue to develop in AAA, and we’ll also have AA packed with pitching. Lowder, Petty, Aguiar, and Acuna should all be there, and 1 or more of them might be helpful in 24, but multiple of them will most assuredly be ready in 25.
I’m super geeked for the next several years, we should see a lot of playoff baseball.
And a final +33,279 for you with that summary. Close isn’t enough and we are hungry as fans for a post-season run.
Maybe analytics didn’t call for it. But it would have nice if the manager, the pitching coach, the catcher, the team leader or somebody would have called time and went out to settle down the rookie pitcher. Say after he went 2-0 on the second batter. I mean where was the leadership.
R-E-S-P-E-C-T!
When is the last time we saw a Reds player pitched around with the Reds trailing by 5 runs and 2 outs in their 8th inning? As sure as I am typing this, the Cardinals pitched around CES with 2 men on base and loaded the bases to face Tyler Stephenson rather than risk CES running into one for a 3 run jack to make the game 11-9.
Gee, maybe if the Reds had pitched around Bryan Reynolds last week with 2 men on in the 6th when they led 9-3???? Do you suppose?
How do you know what they were trying to do? 3 pitches…change up, low in strike zone, swing and miss. 2nd change up even lower, try to entice to swing again outside of strike zone. 3rd pitch sinker in the zone. How do you know Al Young wasn’t trying to keep that pitch outside of zone or on edge. Of course, they could have just walked him automatically or throw 4 pitches way out of zone and risk a WP. Next up, #3 batter, not dissimilar hitter. Young was already getting hit pretty good.
I’ve seen Reds pitch around others…e.g. Goldschmidt.
I think we all have a tendency to look back with 20-20 vision to see where things could have been done differently, perhaps with a different outcome.
Reds will likely carry 7-8 OF on their 40MR entering Spring Training. These are easy choices: Benson, Fraley, Friedl, Steer. CIN is certain to add Rece Hinds too. That’s 5. I’m counting Steer as an OF even though he can play IF too. That’s sort of how CIN handled Senzel – whom I look to get traded or non-tendered. Fairchild is out of options which means he’ll get waived. I would expect Hopkins to serve as the new version of Fairchild. That is 6. That leaves room for 1-2 more OF’s.
Barrero could move to OF in terms of the 40MR, but I think he gets dealt too. If CIN retains India (I think he gets dealt) then De La Cruz could shift to the OF, but I think it is too early to start talking about moving De La Cruz out of the IF.
This points to CIN signing a RH-hitting platoon type OF and perhaps another OF with options. Probably not anyone huge.
I’m hopeful that CIN looks hard at defensive metrics. The defense needs to help disguise the pitching. The OF had (-12) DRS in 2023. That needs to improve. Fraley was the opposite of good in the OF, so finding someone that can platoon with him and replace him late in games for defense should help the team. Bell needs to quit playing him in RF too.
Maybe a spot is left open for someone to win out of Spring Training. That is always fun and we’ve had good luck with that over the years.
Thoughts?
Could you imagine our lineup with Rhys Hoskins? I’m not sure who’s go where and a lot of guys hate DHing but they’d score a ton. At first glance CES hit better at DH then 1B so he becomes our JD Martinez.
Then get a mid level starter and a high leverage reliever. That shouldn’t push them that much financially. Definitely cheaper then the Castellanos/Moose/Sonny era.
Really? Haven’t we had enough of these rental types? Moose, Myers, Renfroe, Castellanos, et al et al. We have a fine 1st baseman in CES, we can figure out the DH Thing. Whether or not Joey is back is another.
Michael, You are forgetting two players for the outfield rotation – Jacob Hurtubis and Blake Dunn. I think the Reds sending Hurtubise to the AFL is a reflection of the Reds wanting to see what he can do against more “elite” competition. He can hit, steal bases and play a good center field. He will I think replace Fairchild as that late inning pinch runner going forward. I also think Dunn will get a shot at making the big club – if he stays healthy. I imagine HInds starts the year at AAA along with Dunn waiting for the first sign of struggle or injury.
I like Hurtubise but don’t the Reds have until next Nov to protect him? If so, I bet they keep him off the 40MR but call him up during the season when someone moves to the DL60.
Is Dunn the same (they don’t have to protect until 2024)?
If Blake Dunn continues to advance in his development as he has so far, he will probably stand out in Spring Training and I would think have a very good chance to be an outfield starter next season. Only time will tell. The only struggles that I have seen from him were the last week of the season when he just seemed like he was burned out. He hasn’t played that much baseball in the previous two years. I think we could have something very, very special here.
Quite a while ago I pointed out that I thought CES was the best pure hitter on the team and in the organization. I still hold to that. But I believe Blake Dunn could be the best pure baseball player that the system has the offer. Those who had the opportunity to watch him this season had to be mighty impressed, both in the talent and effort exhibited. I need to go back and study it but it appeared that he gained strength each succeeding month.
What a great season and Kudos to Bell and his staff for putting these players in a position to succeed. I do hope a change in style happens, as I question Bell alot, however understand I don’t have all the information the manager and coaches have. Yes, that is a real thing.
Reds having three winning season’s under Bell seems to be been diminished, however next season will tell the tale as this team should be in contention for the world series if they bring in bullpen help and starting pitching. As we saw this season you don’t address your pitching you faulter. That isn’t Bell’s fault that is a organization issue.
Kevin – love your optimism as it provides some balance. Yes there are organizational challenges, but I think we can all agree there were decisions within more than a couple of games by HDTBell that had an impact. All it would have taken is a couple more wins. Those are on our Dugout Leadership Team which is headed by the Field Manager (the one with the 3-year extension handed to him on a nepotism-plated platter mid-season).
1 winning season was covid shortened. The other two both featured August and September collapses with “easy” schedules. This 3 winning season stuff sounds good on the surface but there is more to that story.
Exactly Lark. We can’t just gloss over the fact that his teams had 2 epic late season collapses.
Yes. A couple of games over .500 could have easily been a couple of games under .500 which would be NO winning seasons. Not exactly something to get excited about no matter what Big Bob & Son want us to believe.
Bringing it back #GetThePitching2
Just an opinion but I truly believe that if the Reds had a man in long relief they would be in the playoffs today. The bullpen was just wore out. I don’t think management was negligent in any manner as far as trades and so forth. The one trade they made was quite enough as they sacrificed a guy who has major talent and potential. This move ma backfire greatly and the usual suspects will be howling at the Moon. But we needed a relief pitcher and we got one. I’m sure we’d all like to think if they would just trade Austin Hendrick for a top-notch starting pitcher all would be well. That wish unfortunately is not based on reality.
What an unexpected, surprising season. The Reds are back and loaded with potential. It should be an interesting off season with emphasis on strengthening starting pitching and developing a top bullpen. Only four and a half months to spring training.
They got as far as they could with such a limited, even non-existent at times, starting rotation. Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott and Williamson is a good start for next season, with Philips and Lowder in the wings, but yet at least one more experienced pitcher will be needed.
The position players active roster for next season should be about the same: Stephenson, catcher, CES, India, McLain, EDLC, Marte, Steer, Fraley, Friedl, Benson, Senzel, OF. Only questions are if they’ll tender Senzel and if India will be traded. I believe they’ll both stick around.
Due to the hot streak in middle of season I would know say not making the playoffs is a big disappointment.. Arizona and the Marlins, both who looked dead at different points of season in August and September made playoffs. While Reds front office sat on hands during trade deadline, Kim Ng was aggressive and Arizona made key moves to help them. Reds acquired a marginal LH middle reliever and in that deal gave up a starting pitching prospect they should have never considered trading in Boyle.. while Phillips was unable to find strike zone last night Boyle was throwing up a quality start….
+1000
The last two games pretty much sum up the season as a whole. There is a ton of potential, anyone who is watching can see it. But way too much inconsistency. Considering this team didn’t even have a real starting rotation for most of the season, they did pretty well.
Now the question is how much will they do to help the pitching staff? How much should they do? When you think about potential SP for next season, there are already more than 5 guys in house who are part of that conversation. But how much can they count on Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft heading into next season? I still have high hopes for all of them, but I don’t see how the Reds can go into 2024 with those guys penciled in as the top 3 if they are serious about winning. From a health and performance standpoint, there is just no track record and you really don’t know what you’re going to get.
Well, the season is almost complete I watched all but a handful of games this year. I’ve watched nearly all the minor league games that were available on milb.tv. Last year I quit following the Reds in May and haven’t followed a full season in quite a while. I even bugged out the 21 season when the team fell apart. These are exciting times to be a Reds fan. The organization is bustling with talent and has a direction.
A month ago I posted about how young and inexperienced these players were and that it would take some time but now they all have at least one year of experience under their belt. They also have added benefit of being through a pennant chase down to the last couple games of the season. It’s going to be a long off season of anticipation but 2024 can be pure magic.
I bet all of us could use some good news today. Well I have some for you, Angel Hernandez has been sacked and will no longer be able to work major league baseball games. How about that fellows!
Ugh!!! Hoodwinked on X by an outfit called faxsports. Sorry, please ignore the previous post.
The Astros were in a must win weekend and look at what they did…beat the DBacks 2-1, 1-0. Now that’s impressive. Really good teams win those must win low scoring, close games. Reds will be ok next season but they will have to score 8-9 runs. We don’t have a 1-0, 2-1 team.
Actually we don’t have a 3-2 park
Once Krall did not pick up Clevinger, this end was inevitable.
F.Cruz and Farmer cannot be on the team next season!
Marte looked solid, mature in spring training, and he had a good one. I’m not surprised by his success. EDLC didn’t look ready in the spring, didn’t have a good one, but made it up faster, and struggled greatly, after initial success.
Disagree on Cruz. He was just overworked late. He had some really long stretches of success this year
Agree. Cruz and Phillips were both put into poor situations Saturday. If Cruz was going to be the first man in from the pen anyway, why wasn’t used as an opener, a role he had performed, so the kid could watch from the sidelines and get into the flow of things?
Cruz was just way overused he’s fine as a middle innings guy. Remember how badly Wandy Peralata was overused when he was a Red and crashed hard? Now he is a very solid lefty with the Yankees. Same thing with multiple relievers Diaz, Gibault, Farmer, Cruz.
Win/win here for the Reds. Trade India to Boston for Nick Pavetta or 3 team deal. His 4.04 is solid, but his numbers are outstanding. Opposing batting average of .203. He might be the kind of guy that matures late like Charlie Morton. We don’t have the stacks to compete for Snell, Sonny, or Jordan Montgomery. Have to be realistic
NO NO NO
For so many reasons. KEEP India
Where would he play exactly? Marte, Elly, McLain, and CES is your infield.
You have better DHs too. He’s gotta go
That’s what completely overused BP looks like. They crashed hard last night as well as the Pirates debacle. Hopefully Krall got the message and signs 1 or 2 Veteran Starters
We could try to buy low on Dylan Cease. I trust Krall will do something helpful. The Mike Minor types were just to cover whatever 162×6 is. He knew the team wasn’t going to be competitive
I hope he learned his lesson, cuz he didn’t get it done at the Trade Deadline and that cost us the playoffs this year.
@RedBB…You keep saying that without ever saying who they should have got. You can’t even say now…after the fact.
@VARedsFanI’ve said it many times. Lynn, Lorenzen and Giolito werre all upgrades over Spiers/Phillips no matter how bad their ERA’s were. Bad is always better than worse. Anything is better than 3-4 inning starts with a 9+ERA
Phillips was good until yesterday.
Lynn had a worse ERA than Weaver pre deadline
Giolito was so bad that he had to be DFA’d by the team that traded for him.
@VARedsFan All 3 of those guys I mentioned were better than Spiers and Phillips sorry. Phillips had 1 good game and still ended up with an overall 6.97 ERA. He only pitched past 5.0 innings once in 5 starts and averaged just 4 innings per start.
Lance Lynn had a 4.63 ERA post trade and averaged almost 6 innings a start. What does his pre-trade ERA have to do with anything? Lynn was significantly better than Phillips and Spiers. There’s simply no way to spin it.
Giolito’s DFA had nothing to do with performance it was to clear salary (Angels DFA’d six players many of which were very good and claimed ie Lopez 2.77ERA and Moore 2.66ERA). The Angels were very close to the luxury tax cap and tried to dump salary to get below it (look it up if you don’t believe me). His ERA was bad after the deadline and was 6.79 (on par with Phillips) but he still averaged 5.1 Innings per start which is well above Phillips.
So explain to me why Phillips was better than Giolito with a slightly worse ERA and less innings per start? Do you enjoy overworking your BP? Do you think Giolito could have possibly pitched any worse than Phillips yesterday?
So Red, you were willing to give prospects up for pure crap starters? Really? Tough to even argue with you based on what you have told us.
@Red…Yes…I’d rather give Phillips a shot over those crap pitchers.
Because that’s why you’d acquire a guy…pre deadline form.
DJ isn’t the Dodgers pitching coach…
+1000
Two more random points then it’s on to the 1st place Indianapolis Colts.
1. Put up a wall in RF and take out a few rows. Triples off that wall would give the Reds a home field advantage vs teams with average speed
2. Williamson gave up no HRs to lefties. Pretty impressive. He’s your 2nd lefty/swing man. Go get a veteran starter and high leverage co-closer.
Lucky You. It is the Buckeyes bye week; and, the Blue Jackets regular season is still 11 days away. At least the CBJ fall training camp is hitting full swing with a lot of activity and gossip to follow day to day. Hope we are both still around to exchange thoughts here next season. Later 🙂
Oh, and I agree there has to be some solution for the RF situation at GGABP short of rebuilding the entire RF seating area Infrastructure.
Indy Red Man, I like how you think. I made the suggestion to Doug about the wall earlier. We have the speed to take advantage of that. I fact I don’t remember a year when the Reds hit as many triples as a team. You also have a player in Hurtubise , who I hope makes the team, who has good speed, and makes contact. I think he would be perfect for a fourth outfielder. Agree on Williamson, or any other pitcher who can be a swing /lefty man. I think part of the Reds problem this year is they had nobody to really fill that role – and you see what it did to the bullpen.
I feel like Williamson makes a nice 4th or 5th starter. But If we go out and get starting pitching then move him as a swing guy.
I’ve been in the “Build the Wall” camp also.
See Camden Yards.
The Orioles pitching and bullpen have been a catalyst to their revival.
I’d like to see the wall moved back maybe 5 rows. Does not need to be extreme..
I think Doug said something to the effect that the architecture of the stadium may not allow that unless you just move home plate and the rest of the field back a few feet.
NO. Williamson is a great young pitcher who I can only hope the Reds will rely on next season. Plus, he appears to stay healthy. We have a great young team of talent, but guys still want to go blow money for veterans.
Some meaningful baseball to be played yet today. Our game will be for “pride” especially if the Stupid Cubs lose so we tie them for 2nd place in the NLC.
Astros and Snakes still playing hard for position. Phish win and I think they get to skip tomorrow as not necessary to determine playoff position.
Yes, I saw overnight that MLB officially announced the suspended game will not be completed. That’s for sure. If I understood the resolution correctly, the Fish get the #5 seed if they win or both they and the DBacks lose. If Dbacks win and Fish lose, they get the #5.
Odds are good that Ross is out in Chicago despite being extended just last year. The Reds should follow suit. The team went 23-30 in the last two months, and despite that the team drew two million plus fans. The fanbase deserves better. And it’s clear from the owner’s priorities that rewarding the insiders trumps fielding a good team. There’s a lot of work to be done in the off season. let’s see what actually happens. If they bring back Dennis Johnson, for example, that’s a sign they haven’t learned a thing from this season’s pitching debacle. The young position players are a good core, but it’s time to move on from Votto, Senzel, and several others. The Reds need everyday players, not a handful of platoon players that opposing managers use to game Bell, successfully in most cases. And BTW, the winner of today’s same is the season series winner. Where would the Reds be today had they played better against the two worse teams in the division?
Where would the Reds be today had they played better against the two worse teams in the division?
{sarcasm font on} And of course playing down to the competition is not an issue a manager and coaching staff can address via mental preparation in advance. {sarcasm font off}
The Reds Pitching Coordinator is Derek Johnson; and, I agree it is sending a terrible message if he is back in 2024 running the day to day pitching of the MLB team.
Agree Jim.
I’d like to see them throw some money at the Dodgers pitching coach.
@VA>> Thinking back to Dusty Bakers departure following a 90 win season in 2013, if Johnson is not brought back who knows where that might lead?
For those who weren’t following the Reds a decade ago or who have forgotten, Dusty was told he had to replace his hitting coach or leave. He “chose” to leave.
Is Carson Kelly a good fit for our #2 catcher? I liked the way ATL used Murphy and D’Arnaud. Kelly offers a good defensive package.
I’d like to see Chuck Robinson get a shot. He’s a veteran catcher albeit mostly in the minors, a good defender and had a great year with the bat. That being said I think the Reds likely re-sign Maile as he played well down the stretch. Prol $2M or so
Chuckie deserved a call-up this year and it did not happen. Guessing he is a minor league free agent right after the World Series.
There are 3 former Reds starters that we should consider going after. Sonny Gray, Lorenzen and Miley. Gray would be priority #1 but is a little dangerous given his injury history. Guessing $20-$23M for him. Lorenzen around $12+M but think he would want multiple years. Think Miley could be had for a $10-12M 1 year contract with an option. I would go after Gray and Miley for $30-$35M which is pretty much what we have coming off the books with Votto and Moutsuckus including their buyouts.
Just for fun a 4th former Reds Starter we could go after would be Mahle. He’s coming off TJ surgery in May but these days an Internal Brace can accelerate the rehab not sure what type he had though. Guessing he would be pretty cheap though on a 1 or 2 year deal.
Lorenzen is an interesting possibility. If he hasn’t lost his legs or hitting eye, he could be a de facto 14th position player on the days he wasn’t pitching. Bell should love that.
Nothing like having another RH bat that can (or could in the past) run into a fastball to come off the bench when the opposition has flipped from a LH pitcher to a RH pitcher then back to LHP after the Reds flipped their bench.
Miley might be good for about 10 starts. They already have 3 lefty starters.
Here is hoping they go after much better pitchers than you mentioned.
Sonny Gray 2.79ERA and 5.4bWAR and will get Cy Young votes. Miley 3.14ERA and 2.5bWAR, Lorenzon 4.20 ERA, a no-hitter and a 2.0 bWAR. Who are these better pitcher you want to go after? And who’s going to pay them?
Name me one better starting pitcher than Sonny Gray other than Snell on the free agent market…..go ahead. And don’t say Ohtani cuz he isn’t even gonna pitch next year and the Reds would laugh at any suggestion they would even consider paying him fair market value.
I agree with Greenfield Red about the “childish” comment. I am old enough to have experienced the 1961 pennant winners and the Big Red Machine. There is a great foundation this year that performed at a high level for such a large number of young players. The progress before the All Star break was bot to be sustained over a full season and it has been proven that any holding steady at the trade deadline was the right move for this club. Look at the records of the pitchers they would have given up prospects for. There may be some regression in 2024 as these things go but I think the overall future of this team is very bright if they stay the course of development from within.
I think there’s widespread agreement (imagine that!) among posters here that the Reds need at least one and perhaps two solid starting pitchers to couple with the ones we may already have (not knowing of course who is going to healthy and effective). Others may have suggested this approach before, but I’d like to see the Reds look to Asia for at least one of those slots, given the relative success of guys like Mikolas (for the Cards), Martinez (the Padres), and Kelly (the Dbacks) in signing guys who went to Japan, Korea, or Taiwan for a few years to sort of hone their craft. Nick Martinez is exactly the sort of pitcher the Reds could have used this year–a guy able to start or relieve, and comfortable giving three or four innings of relief when circumstances require. It’s possible he’ll even be available, given that the Padres say they want to cut costs. But my more general point is that I think the Reds might be better off scouring the international market for a pitcher or two this off-season. Wherever they look, we could sure use some effective innings eaters like Harang and Arroyo in their primes (both, incidentally, guys the Reds got in trade when they were not worth all that much.
Asia should be interesting for pitching. Traditionally Asian pitchers pan out at a higher rate than hitters. At least as far as I know. US pitchers that go to Asia and have success also seem to be pretty decent when they return…ie Mikolas, Nick Martinez.
How soon will the Reds start dumping the deadwood?
I’ve not seen an official off season calendar yet; but, teams not in the playoffs can start cleaning house pretty much immediately.
Players under team control for 2024 who are not under contract for 2024, i.e. prearbitration and arbitration eligible players, can be announced as official nontenders any time after the end of the regular season. Players who are non tendered become immediate MLB free agents.
Since the contract tender deadline is not until late November, teams typically hold off officially making nontender declarations until then in hopes of trading a player and in the case of arbitration eligible players, signing them at a reduced rate to their projected arbitration salary.
The call date for 2024 contract options is timed to fall at the end of the World Series unless otherwise specified by an individual’s contract. However similar to nontender calls, a team (or player) can announce an option decision earlier.
Free agency for all eligible players not under contract for 2024 also begins at the end of the World Series. However current teams maintain exclusive negotiating rights with their pending free agents up to the official opening of free agency.
@J…..that’s a lot of assuming. Who’s to say the Reds didn’t do their due diligence in looking for pitching?
I assume that what they had to give up in prospects wasn’t worth the return. Besides Snell, Verlander, and Scherzer there were no real game changers. Scherzer ended up hurt. Verlander and Snell can’t go deep into games. Reds would not have spent the draft capital and the money to get Verlander and Scherzer. Reds need to get one possibly two starters. Williamson and Phillips need to hone their skills in AAA.
I keep reading that the failure in this season was Krall’s inability to secure some pitching at the deadline. In my opinion, I have to believe they looked at many different options and none were appealing and none put the Reds over the top.
Other teams in the playoff hunt made significant trades. The Reds didn’t. Either all the other GMs are insane and Krall is the only sane one, or the the Reds didn’t really want to make a deal. Which do you think it is?
Also, what evidence is there that the Reds were trying to make a trade a month before the deadline? There weren’t any rumors that I’m aware of. I heard Krall say he worked very hard to make a deal the morning of the trade deadline. Never heard him say one word suggesting he’d been working hard for weeks to get a deal done. I don’t think he was.
J……other teams made significant trades? I looked at the deadline deals. The Reds weren’t going to get Scherzer or Verlander. I looked at Montgomery going to Texas. Texas didn’t give up much, but would the cards deal in their own division without trying to get a haul? Lorenzen, didn’t want him. He threw a no hitter which was great, but was largely ineffective. The Reds picked up Moll who was fantastic for them.
Cubs did nothing. Brewers picked up Santana and Canha who have been good for them. Miami picked up Berger and Josh Bell.
I really like the Renfroe pick up. I thought he was going to do well. I wasn’t crazy about Bader.
There were no rumors about Krall looking at making moves months before the deadline so that makes it true. What do GMs do all year long? They look to improve their team.
TJ,
The Cubs traded for Candelario, who was considered one of the best available bats.
You’re getting very hung up on how all the traded players performed after they were traded. My argument isn’t that the Reds absolutely should have landed one the pitchers who moved at the deadline because that would have been made all the difference. My argument is that I’m confident they could have landed *someone* if they’d been actively searching a few weeks before the deadline, but I don’t think they were actively doing anything of the sort. I simply don’t buy the argument that not a single GM in all of MLB would have been willing to accept a reasonable trade for a #4 or #5 starter if a reasonable offer had been made. It just defies logic. If you know you’re going to be looking for prospects, and you’ve got an okay-ish starter who’s probably not in your long-term plans, why not make a deal when Krall asks about that guy? Chapman was traded long before the trade deadline, the price wasn’t absurd, and from all we’ve heard the Reds weren’t seriously involved. It supports my belief that the Reds didn’t get serious about trying to make a trade until the deadline was close, and at that point they were in competition with everyone else for a handful of a pitchers.
I think he said he was looking to bring in some pitching help before that…but was not willing to sacrifice the longer term. I can’t believe that someone who was willing to trade Suarez, Winker during spring training and Castello, and Mahle, Farmer at last year’s deadline wasn’t willing to pull the trigger this trade deadline. I’m willing to think he couldn’t find a deal worth doing. I feel like you and others would have been satisfied with anything.
A significant deal for the Reds it turns out was anyone who could pitch 3 + innings a couple of times a week to save their bullpen from meltdowns like in the loss to the Pirates 13-12 after leading 9-1 in the 6th inning or the mess Saturday with the Cards.
Given what went down, it really didn’t matter how well they did, only that they could at least stumble through 9-12 outs because the Reds offense covered a lot of poor performances by the patchwork thrown together; but, that patchwork finished the job of melting down the bullpen guys used in it.
It was apparent to anyone who could count and took the time to do so that the Reds did not have enough arms unless 2 or more guys came back from injury (if wishes were horses beggars would ride until the guys were actually on an MLB mound). And that’s not allowing for additional injuries (Ashcraft) or someone running out of gas (Abbott).
Should have traded EDLC for Lorenzen, given thier relative post-All Star performances.
The lineup is out and it’s clear that Bell isn’t partial to winning.
So am I correct that the Reds and Votto will likely not make any announcements regarding his future until the conclusion of the World Series in November? It will certainly be the first major decision the front office makes.
The team could announce the option decision ahead of then if it chose to. Votto could also unilaterally announce his retirement but why should he forfeit the $7m buyout?
Also, an extension agreement could be announced at any time. Or,, technically, if Votto waived his no trade rights, he could be traded ahead of the option call (to Toronto?); and, his new team could accept the option or reach an extension deal with him,
I bet the over (8.5) in the Reds game today. Mikolas has not been good especially lately. Greene is prone to give up a homer or two.
..or 3 or 4 or 5. I’d have to check what phase of the moon is tonight before giving you my answer on Greene. His starts couldn’t be more bi-polar. Hoping for Hunter Jeckyll and not Hunter Hyde today.
I hope today is the end of the Fairchild experiment, he simply isn’t a mlb caliber player.
How is he not MLB caliber for a 4th or 5th OF? He was 0.4 bWAR in 213 AB’s (0.5fWAR), has speed and plays good D. He has a 1.0 career bWAR/fWAR in 325 career AB’s. I’m not saying he’s better than or should block Blake Dunn and Hurtubise whom I am both big on but Fairchild is pretty much the definition of a solid MLB 4th/5th OFer.
If he shouldn’t block Dunn or Hurtubise, where is there room for him?
Well….Dunn is still in AA. He’ll start the year in AAA I would assume. Hurtubise is a LHB and his splits show he isn’t great vs LHP (.678 OPS vs LHP) so he’s not blocking him either technically. We still need RH bats in this lineup next year.
One last plug for Stu here. Agree he is 4th OF material. Look at his output when he has gotten consistent playing time versus being an RH hitting pawn in Bell’s rigid platoon system. If he gets 15-20 PAs a week vs all pitching he will be league average offensively. That’s 4th OF playing time on a team not based on handedness.
At least Senzel, bless his heart, finally found a role he is good at in Bell’s system more power to him.
Just do not see how India and Senzel and Fraley fit in next season. Infield should be set with CES, Marte, EDLC, and MM. They should be on field 90% of the time.
The OF is where one or two power bats should be added. Having stated that I think Friedl and Benson and Steer should be the starters with Dunn and Hurtubise in the wings.
Would love to see Joey become a coach but his playing career should be over.
So multiple additions are needed in the BP and at least two starters. Not an easy task but doable
These kinds of analyses always sound good on paper, but then when we get to the actual season, we find out that at least one of those guys is out indefinitely to begin the season, and another one of them suddenly can’t hit anything, and all of a sudden we’re saying “uh-oh, wish we still had India, Senzel and Fraley…”
I’m not saying the Reds shouldn’t be open to trading any or all of those “extra” players, but I also think it’s a huge mistake to just say “well, our starting 9 will be these 9 guys, so we don’t need India, Senzel, or Fraley…” Having to rely on promising minor leaguers as your fallback plan isn’t always going to work out so great. Hopkins has some really impressive AAA numbers this year, and the Reds ended up with Bader and Renfroe because Hopkins was so awful.
I’m guessing they non-tender Senzel. No point paying him $3+M as a RHB platoon with Dunn waiting in the wings who crushes LHP (1.216 OPS). I kinda agree about India but I wouldn’t give him away either. Need to get a controllable 4th/5th SP for him at least or a top100 prospect. Fraley might be expendable too as Hurtubise is a LHB that destroys RHP (.500OBP and 1.031OPS) , although he has very little power even with his career high 7 HR’s this year and just 11 doubles. Anyone know how Hurtubise’s D is? I’m guessing its at least better than Fraley’s
I wish I had your confidence though with Marte and EDLC. Marte has been great but the sample size is so small and EDLC was close to being sent down to AAA if the season wasn’t almost over.