I guess the headline is a little deceiving because yes, the Cincinnati Reds can make the playoffs. There are eight games left on their schedule and they are currently one game out of the final playoff spot. Before we dive too far into things, let’s take a look at the standings and the playoff odds for the National League Wild Card:
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff % |
| Phillies | 83 | 69 | +4.0 | 99.8% |
| Dbacks | 81 | 72 | +1.5 | 84.9% |
| Cubs | 79 | 73 | 0.0 | 45.8% |
| Marlins | 79 | 74 | 0.5 | 45.5% |
| Reds | 79 | 75 | 1.0 | 21.5% |
| Giants | 76 | 76 | 3.0 | 2.2% |
The top three teams get a wild card spot and will make the playoffs. Philadelphia has a big lead and as such, their playoff odds (via Fangraphs) are about as high as a non-clinched of yet team can have. Arizona’s got to be feeling good about their chances, too. The Cubs, Marlins, and Reds, though, are all bunched up together and are more likely to not make the playoffs than to make the playoffs. San Francisco probably is going to need to win out the rest of the season, and get some help in order to grab a playoff spot.
Cincinnati has the tiebreaker over Chicago if those two teams were to wind up tied at the end of the season. They also hold the tiebreaker over Arizona if the two teams are tied. They do not hold the tiebreaker over the Marlins in a scenario in which those two are tied at the end of the season.
The Reds have today off. On Friday they will open up a 3-game series at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s the final homestand of the season, and perhaps the last chance to see Joey Votto play in Cincinnati, too. After that they’ll have an off day on Monday, play two games in Cleveland against the Guardians, have an off day on Thursday, and then wrap up the regular season with three games against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
All three teams left on the schedule are under .500. Two of the series are on the road – which has been a better result for the Reds this year. Cincinnati doesn’t control their own destiny, but they are close enough that if they end the season going 6-2 or better, then they’ll finish with 85 wins. That likely gets the job done. Anything less than that and things get real iffy, real quick.
The loss on Wednesday looms large. It’s a game that should have been a win, and while there are plenty of wins on the season that probably should have been losses, at this point in the season there’s so little time to make up for those games that it just feels larger.
As for the other clubs in the race, here’s how their schedules look:
Cubs – 1 game vs Pittsburgh, 3 games against Colorado, 3 games against Atlanta, 3 games vs Milwaukee.
Marlins – 3 games vs Milwaukee, 3 games vs New York (Mets), 3 games vs Pittsburgh
Dbacks – 3 games vs New York (Yankees), 2 games vs Chicago (White Sox), 3 games vs Houston
Giants – 7 games vs Los Angeles (Dodgers), 3 games vs San Diego
What’s that? Play-offs don’t talk to me about play-offs. Play-offs? I just hope we can win another game.
If the Reds win 80 games that is way better than my prediction of under 70 wins this year. Progress has happened and we are a much better team than last year. I know many won’t like this, but I would rather we didn’t make the playoffs this year, so that ownership won’t be like owe we don’t need to spend any money, they made it to the playoffs, so we don’t need to add anything and hope for better health. If we miss they can’t say that, and upgrades should be mildly made. Better get a least 1 solid starting pitcher at least. and at least one solid relief pitchers
The rotation didn’t really get to show us what they are going to be because of injury. So lets hope that injury bug stays away next year.
If the owners say they don’t have money to go out and get really good players than they are full of it. Griffey is done being paid for and now Votto should be too. That might be an extra 40 million or so right there that they could use on upgrades. An all young team is not going to have the experience to make it through a whole season and win a World Series.
Late September one game out tie breakers with two teams ahead of us. Make it happen boys
Yesterday can be looked at two different ways. Yes, it was a missed opportunity, but it was also a dodged bullet in that the Cubs and Marlins both lost. Just win baby!!
The bigger problem is that the Reds have played more games than Chicago & Miami and are 2 games behind the Cubs in the loss column. The Reds make it if they win at least 6, preferably more of the final 8 AND, Milwaukee & Atlanta do the heavy lifting against Chicago and Miami. Milwaukee & Atlanta are already in. Do they rest key players in those series opening the door to Chicago & Miami? The other problem is that the Reds have split the series to date against StL and Cleveland and have 4-6 against Pittsburgh thus far. If I were inclined to bet, I think I’d pick Miami.
I’ve been pondering the Milwaukee and Atlanta postures for the Final week.
The Milwaukee situation seems most interesting to me since they are in a position to play a major role in deciding who they will face in a best of three series in the playoffs. Plus, 2 of the 3 teams vying for the last WC spot are division rivals of the Brewers.
The Brewers’ first priority is almost certainly to set their own pitching rotation to have their 3 best starters ready. Beyond their own starting pitchers being set, they would want to face the team with the starting pitchers most vulnerable to their offense. Finally, how do they feel about facing a division rival versus a nondivision rival?
Last things first, the Brewers are currently 10-10 vs the Cubs on the season and 3-10 versus the Reds. Records aside, the Brewers finish the regular season against the Cubs in Milwaukee. I can’t fathom any team wanting to turn around a day or two later to take on the same team they just finished the season against at the same venue. Then add in the proximity factor of Milwaukee being a short commute for Cubbie fans to flood into whatever Miller Park is now officially called; and, there is just no way the Brewers want the Cubs in the playoffs as their opponent. However, should the Cubs look good for the #2 WC spot, the Brewers might not give a hoot about the last 3 games.
As for the Brewers versus the Marlins this weekend in Miami? I think the Brew Crew will play things straight against the Fish. They beat them 3 of 4 in Milwaukee during the season; and, they won’t want to let the Fish forget that given they could be the Brewers playoff opponent regardless of how these 3 games go.
Now, about the Braves and Cubs (in ATL), I’d guess there is a good chance the Braves play those games straight because they provide a good reality check against a possible playoff team; and following, the Braves then have their final 3 vs the Nats to just get work in ahead of the layoff prior to the second round.
oops brain cramp>>> Brewers 5-5 not 10-10 versus the Cubs to date.
Interesting thoughts, @JimW but I think I still like Miami’s chances better. They are playing better than the Cubs or the Reds right now. The Reds are 10-9 in Sept, the Cubs 8-11, and Miami 12-7.
LDS>>> I guess we will find out if the Marlins have exhausted their supply of smoke and mirrors versus the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies. They dropped 2 of 3 hard fought games against the Metz, so maybe so.
Good synopsis Jim. I can’t imagine the Brewers wanting to face the Cubs. They would love to face the Reds.
Jim, just one more thought on your analysis! The Braves are still battling the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. If that plays into the choice for home field advantage in the later rounds of the NL playoffs, I think the Braves still have that incintive to win against the Cubs!
Yikes. I hope we make it. All things considered I really wish Greene would have finished the game yesterday but life goes on.
Greene seemed to have the momentum. But I guess that’s another nebulous thing like team chemistry.
I will be shocked if we make it. Just too many injuries to our rotation. Hope I’m wrong but losing Ashcraft is huge.
I will also be surprised (very pleasantly) if we make it. We have one starting pitcher we can rely on right now. Just one. And we unfortunately blew his start yesterday. That means surviving three straight games where we have no idea what we’re getting out of a starter. Yesterday hurt.
I am already shocked we are still in a position to make it. Make it or not, these young players are getting valuable experience.
I will be shocked also. Agree the Ashcraft injury is likely the fatal blow.
Sure would have been nice to have had him, Greene and Lodolo for this stretch run. They would have gained valuable playoff-“like” experience. Athletes either crumple under pressure or thrive with it. I think we saw yesterday that Hunter thrives under the experience – good to know!
Not happy with the offense for several weeks now. Pitching has been held together with rubber bands and duct tape. Very proud of the bullpen but now am concerned with the offense in 2024.
Agree about Greene on Wednesday. He put the team on his back. Unfortunately no one else did on either side of the ball
Agreed. Huge indeed! After hearing that I knew we would be very very lucky to make the playoffs. Still there is some hope so I will hold on to that but will not be too bummed out if we don’t make it. Next year is where my real hope and excitement lies after the Reds spend significant money on FA’s to augment our young talented team.
Cincy spending big $$ on FA’s? Color me not confident in the Reds front office 1) spending big money on FA’s or 2) spending it on the right mix of very good to big stats players.
Big Bob will be declaring the season an enormous success and awarding bonuses to each and every Castellani. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.
Good Lord: so much cynicism is one so young….
*Hey Google*
How long does it take to legally change your last name?
Bonus? I’m in. Melvin Castellani…..
naw I CAN’T do it. 😀
+10,000 from Mark Castelanni 😛
“Joey, Bob is your father!” Nick Kenobi Krall
“NO!!!! NO, it can’t be true!” Joey Basewalker Votto
“Search your feelings, Joey. You know it to be true!” Nick Kenobi Krall
“NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!” Joey Basewalker Votto
Hope we do, but we sure better get on the ball! Frankly, the way the team looked last night (and other nights recently) I don’t think we deserve a playoff spot. And if we do make it in, I doubt we last long. Too many injuries, too many flaws. Still, for the sake of all the youngsters on the team, getting a taste of the playoffs, however small, might whet their appetites to improve for next season.
They need that learning curve step with game #163.
I don’t think those exist anymore.
Nope. Tiebreakers. I was wondering today what happens if there is a rainout which cannot be played before the end of the day Sunday (most likely someone getting rained out on Thursday). Does that game get played?
i think of the next 8 games the pirates series will be the toughest. they play us tough and we are only scoring 3 runs a game at home. tough to ask the pitching staff to keep a team from scoring 2 runs or less for 3 games in a row. if we can get 2/3 from pittsburgh i think we could sweep Cleveland and THE CARDINALS on the road where we score more runs. 7-1 finish with any luck should get us in!
I think all of the remaining game are likely to be tough, despite the opponents’ losing records, because they all play the Reds tough and because our starting pitching is in shambles. I do have some hope: Minnesota is a good team with very good pitching, so it may be that our hitters will revive against less formidable staffs. And McClain may be back. He could give us a serious lift. I don’t think these guys will give up, so: a puncher’s chance.
Kind of disappointing that the Reds and Votto didn’t use today’s off day ahead of the final home series to resolve his 2024 contract situation. Make an announcement one way or the other and resolve it.
If Votto’s going to retire, he should have had a proper sendoff this season.
If not, it feels wrong to drag this into early November for the longest-tenured Red.
The front office needs to make a decision and go forward with it.
We still have a legit (but small) chance to make the playoffs. As long as that’s still the case, I hope there’s no announcement/distraction about Votto’s contract (and he’s one of my top two favorite players of all time).
Our path and the tiebreakers are the most favorable but yesterday was bitter. We simply need our best players playing every game the rest of the way. Any news on McLain?
Old School replied to my question yesterday on that subject saying, next Tuesday.
Ask me again after the Stupid Cubs play tonight … 😮
“Can” we get there … certainly have a puncher’s chance.
“Will” we get there … confidence level is low for me at this point, but I’m willing to be surprised.
No reason to not go 6-2 if we hit but we have to hit and haven’t hit consistently for a long time.Got off days so it appears we have 4 starters ready to go but we must hit.Nothing new here cause its been the same way for a long time.
Well, there’s one good reason… starting pitching. We have one reliable arm right now, and we blew his start last night.
Might be a good idea to play our best hottest hitters the rest of the way. Just a thought. 😉
Well, play the hitters that match up best against the opponents’ pitchers.
Play the hottest hitters. A good idea, but can handiness be avoided?
Handiness of the hitters is the most important thing – David “Jack Handy” Bell.
So, let’s be handy!
Play the hitters who are obviously seeing the ball the best. That’s your best chance for success.
So CES, Marte, Steer, Stephenson and Friedl, must start every game, and McLain come Tuesday. Benson vs righties. If Fraley hasn’t found his groove by Tuesday, he shouldn’t be the automatic DH vs righties and knock one of the young guys from starting once McLain returns. Marte and CES need be starting the final 8 games & MM once activated.
I know this won’t be the case for obvious reasons.
It would be fitting that they make the playoffs with a last minute surge. It’s been their MO all year. I counted them out (for the season and in individual games) so many times but they continued to hold and come back. They consistently surprised me all year long, which has been a blast. Here’s hoping they have a playoff push surprise left in them. Abbott, Williamson and Phillips have all shown they can be nails on any given night. Mighty Matty Mac will be back soon. Steer will get the game winning RBI that clinches our spot in the playoffs. If there’s still hope, then it’s still fun. Go Reds!
Among many others, the Reds have certainly missed ‘mister steady eddy’, Matt McLain.
Reds have had so many injuries this year. Losing Ashcraft and Matty McBang was a a killer blow for the stretch run
Reds website says McClain has taken BP with the team and may play a couple rehab games. That I wouldn’t understand. With 8 games left, I would hope he would come straight back instead of wasting two or three games in Louisville.
So he doesn’t end up like Votto the first time he tried to rehab or Fraley right now who took a 2 game rehab (.250 OPS) but declared himself ready then after 3 games (or so) at MLB has hit a wall.
So what if that happens? The end of the season is 8 games away. He would be rehabbing for 25-37.5% of the remaining season. If he has a Votto moment in Louisville, season’s over for him. If he has a Votto moment in Cincy, season’s over for him. Looks like the same outcome to me. Surely he knows how he is feeling, and his injury was not a surgical one with a prolonged rehab.
I’m thinking it relies on his defensive range. The oblique injury would have impacted his ability to bend and twist while fielding as well. If he can do that, I think he’ll get his swing back rather quickly. But if he really isn’t healed, the risk is a much bigger injury. Obliques are tricky business.
That would be idiotic. But also typical Reds kind of decisions. Matt could roll out bed in the middle of December and probably go 2 for 4.
Besides the help required to the Reds can make the playoffs, it is crucial to sweep Pirates because, first, create a necessary momentum, second, let to likely gain some ground heading into last week, and third, improve their intra-division record before facing Cardinals and thinking in a tie with Marlins. After sweeping Pirates, they could split with Guardians and go to STL to see what they can do….
The problem I see is that these 3 teams have been tough to beat by the Reds recently so the chance to go 6-2 is hard. If they can’t sweep Pirates but win the series then they have to win both against Guardians or sweep Cardinals , that thing being a really challenge to make it… I hope the kids buckle up in this 8 games remaining
For a team with a winning percentage just better than .500 for the season, winning 3 of 3 is a big task, as is winning 6 of 8. I think that if they win-tie-win these three series, even if short of playoffs, it will have been a commendable run to close out the season, especially considering the state of the pitching staff.
Love to see that reds are only one game out of the playoffs with only single digit games to go. I think the Braves and Brewers may rest some players, but most of the regulars will be out there. I have to think that Milwaukee wants to do everything to sweep the Cubs and face the Reds as the last wild card team if possible. Getting to playoffs will be really tough unless they win 6 of 8. Every team has been streaky. Hopefully the Reds have one winning streak left.
Love to see that reds are only one game out of the playoffs with only single digit games to go. I think the Braves and Brewers may rest some players, but most of the regulars will be out there. I have to think that Milwaukee wants to do everything to sweep the Cubs and face the Reds as the last wild card team if possible. Getting to playoffs will be really tough unless they win 6 of 8. Every team has been streaky. Hopefully the Reds have one winning streak left.
You can say that again
Sorry friends, I had an error that kept popping up and didn’t think my excellent opinions were getting thru. Go Reds!!!
If we’re still kicking when we visit St. Loser and the WLB Dirty Birds, they won’t have Contreras available. He’s on the IL.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/cardinals-to-place-willson-contreras-on-injured-list.html
Redskiller = Contreras
I’m hoping for the best. This is the sprint. Predicting baseball is a fool’s errand
The Reds don’t need to go 6-2. If they win tomorrow and the other three teams lose then the Reds are essentially tied for a play-off spot.
The Reds just need to play two games better than two of the competitors over the next 10 days. It’s not impossible or actually even far fetched. The Reds stand a good chance.
Not a Bell fan and hate the 3 year extension. Offense is anemic. Pitching running on fumes. Is it entirely inconceivable Reds finish on a 10 game losing streak given 2021 and this year’s second half?
Nevertheless I will be in attendance at GABP tomorrow.
Go Redlegs!
I won’t believe the reds are done unless mathematically eliminated because I remember 1999…..Reds were up by 2 games on the Mets (in the wildcard race) with only 3 games left (it looked good for the Reds) ……and if anyone wants to remember what happened: Mets swept the Pirates and the Reds lost 2 out of 3 to the Brewers and then the Reds lost to the Mets in the 1-game playoff
Pirates 2-0. Both unearned as Swanson booted an easy 6-3 unassisted dp. Cubs are feeling it! ESPN has the Reds at 20%, but I’d say more like 10%. We’re 3 back of Arizona in the loss column and 2 with Chicago and they have Colorado coming in for 3. Reds most likely need atleast 6-2
Let’s go Pie-Rats!!!
3-0 After 6 🙂
Watching this cubs/pirates game…..all i know is these 3 games against the pirates this weekend will not be easy by any stretch
Merryweather throws 100, but would rather give up rockets on off speed. Maybe the Cubs will really choke? We’d still have to beat Miami.
Right now the Pirates are playing much better than the Reds, 8-4 in the 9th, we can only hope that changes starting tomorrow. They are hitting well and the Reds just are not scoring runs.
The Reds are about to be 1/2 game behind the two teams immediately ahead of them – Cubs and Marlins. And they have by far the easiest remaining schedule of any of the catchable teams ahead of them, at least on paper. Of course they can make the playoffs, and it’s right there in front of them. Six of the remaining eight starts will go to Greene, Abbott, and the recently impressive Connor Phillips, and Brandon Williamson should get the other two and he’s at least capable of pitching well. The bullpen should be fairly rested with multiple off days. It comes down to the offense, and perhaps how effectively Bell uses EDLC. It may make more sense for him to start in the bench and enter each game as a pinch runner for Votto, Fraley, Maile or Stephenson than to just start. Time to get creative in these crucial games. But it’s very doable.
And even if they don’t get in, how much fun is it that this Reds team that so many thought might lose 100 games again, and almost certainly at least 90, are very much in a playoff hunt with 8 games left? I’m loving this in 2023, and can’t wait to see what happens in 2024 with healthy starting pitching (fingers crossed). Go Reds!
Cubs homer. 8-6 bottom 9th. Cubs
I mean Pirates winning.
Bell did a good job tonight.
Now thats funny J
Nice compliment. I’m proud of you. 🙂
I always try to give the man credit whenever it’s due.
‘Spose he was watching and taking notes about he Pirates?
I hope so. And I hope he noticed they had their best five hitters hitting in the top five spots. Someday I’d love to see the Reds try that.
A lot of last place teams over the years have done what you suggest, J. Strategy is only as good as the players implementing it.
Outcomes of games don’t determine if a strategy is good or bad. If a team wins some games when it starts all its worst players, this doesn’t mean a good strategy is to start all your worst players. Bell’s bad strategy doesn’t cause the Reds to lose every game. It does probably cause them to lose a few.
What seems to determine whether a strategy is good or not is your opinion? I had thought that baseball was a sport and played to determine a winner and a loser. But now I see that it may be a graduate philosophy seminar. A team cannot play just its “best” players every game during a long season–Sparky didn’t come close to doing this with the BRM–and the best players will change somewhat depending upon who the opposing pitcher is and, no, I’m not just talking about simple handedness splits. I do take your point, but I think that there is a lot involved in which players have the best chance of succeeding on any given day.
Most decisions I think it’s impossible to say what the best choice is, which is why I don’t criticize 99.99% of Bell’s decisions. However, I would assume there are choices we can all agree make more sense than others. Choosing Renfroe to hit third was a decision that made sense to almost nobody at the time, and the fact that he was cut the next day to make room for Fairchild reinforces how little sense it made. There was no stat, no trend, no anything that would have indicated Renfroe was the best #3 hitter that day. I don’t care if he struck out four times or hit two home runs — it simply didn’t make sense based on all the available information at the time. And that makes it a bad strategy.
Cubs lose
Cubs have to get right back at it tomorrow 2:20 while Colorado was off. Who knows? Maybe Pittsburgh is a little flat? Mets beat Arizona and Miami in a series, but were a little flat with us. Have to get clutch hits and play better defense.
The Reds have the advantage of being a team that nobody really has any good reasons to hate, so opponents may be a little flat.
I think that over the last dozen or so years, the Pirates and the Reds have had one of the most bitter and angry rivalries. Who can forget the beanball wars that took place when Clint Hurdle managed the Pirates?
Brandon Phillips, on his way to maybe an MVP season in 2012, and getting “beaned” on his left arm, and his hitting tailed off for months.
Yeah, there is still a lot of bad blood between the Reds and Pirates.
And despite the Reds being ‘way ahead of the Cardinals, the Cardinals, their organization and their fans still look down on the Reds.
I wouldn’t count on the Pirates being flat; but; who knows? If they are flying out of O’Hare, they may still be on the tarmac in Chicago at 9AM Friday morning. 😉
I think don’t sweat the loss column from here on. Just watch the win Column. If the Reds have as many as the Cubs, they are in a winning position over them because of definitely holding the tiebreaker over the Cubs.
The opposite is true for Marlins vs Reds. If the Fish have as many wins as the Reds, they are in a winning position because they have the tiebreaker at least for now (it is intradivisional play because Reds and Marlins are 3-3 vs each other). Poor Cubs….. Fish also have the settled tiebreaker on them.
Yeah….poor Cubs 😀
I detect a note of sarcasm there.
Poor Cubs? They’re just like little teddy bears!
For me, wins are currently more telling than losses because the games in hand situations will not be resolved until after the games of next Thursday, Sept 26.
From Doug’s Minor League post:
“Jose Barrero homered for the second straight game. He’s now homered in four of the last five games. The game in the middle there in which he didn’t homer was the day he went 4-4 with two doubles.”
Talk about a hot bat. We might be able to use one of them thare thangs. 😉
Trade Stu for him. Or Senzel. But somebody will be going down in place of Matt’s return.
Trade out Senzel & Stu for Matt & Jose.
I hope the Reds mentality is NOT that they are “holding” a spot for McLain (or Bader for that matter) to avoid multiple moves in the last week of the season but from what we’ve seen of the org processes in the past, this cannot be discounted.
David Bell is not big on hot bats near as much as matchups especially handedness unfortunately. Barrero will probably stay right where he is.
It’s up to our own Reds, mostly. It’s an 8 game season from here(that’s how I would present it to my team in an upbeat informal presentation). Every pitch, at bat, base running etc, Too the pitchers; every pitch is very important, first pitch strikes, trust your stuff, every count, every runner, shake off bad Umpiring calls. Ingrain that I’m better than every player that you’ll face, on offense and defense.
Also, hitters watch your base coaches for take/hit/steal/specialty signs. Keep your guys loose, but be sure to instill confidence and what’s at stake. Ans as their Manager, fist bump good plays when a fundamental play is well executed as a player returns to the dugout such as: sac fly, moving runner over, etc. This keeps the guys excited, they feel special, makes the final 8 games more meaningful and could yield dividends and remove redundancy of the previous 154 games.
Yep. Every game is a must win game. What that definition is for David Bell he’d better pull it out of wherever he’s got it. hahaha 🙂
That’s for sure Melvin! If he read my proclamation he’d trash it. Lol
That would work for a young team. It’s an urgency message, focus, and importance of our 8 game do or die season. Are you a contender or pretender non written but inferred within. Let’s get it done, one pitch at a time.
Go Redlegs!
Pirates over Cubs 8-6 and late arrival into Cncy. Reds are reasonably rested. It’s crunch time with Abbott on the mound.
Weaver is starting against the d backs today. Come on Weaver, you owe the reds one!
Isn’t it amazing how down on their luck starting pitchers can always seem to find work elsewhere but the Reds have to rob the cradle and overtax their already extended bullpen to find guys who can (hopefully) keep the team in a game for 4-5 innings.
Yes it is Jim. We’ve seemingly turned over every rock in every independent league this year. Dylan Axelrod where we’re you(kidding).
I hope that next year we do not have to use more than 8 starters due to short injury stints.
I’d like to see us convert Richardson into a late inning reliever for 2024. Need a guy with gas to miss bats.
How many ” come on Luke you can do this” texts did Weaver get this this morning?
Probably not enough for him to carry the day, The Reds hopes probably are squarely in the hands of the Brewers this weekend in Miami and next weekend (if the Reds are still alive) in Milwaukee vs the Cubs.
Yankees are 6-4 last 10 and Houston is tough if they’re playing for anything. Arizona goes 4-5 and we do 6-2 then we tie. Not that likely imo
If we do 6-2 then Cubs have to go 7-2 to pass us. Miami would have to do 6-3. We really need to win and Milw to clean up like previously posted
Takeaway: I figured losing the rubber match to the Twins to be pivotal bc it was Hunter’s start, it preceded an off day where others could gain ground, etc.
The play of the Reds competition has largely negated that and the Reds maintained the same breathing room.
Can’t count on that again. Pirates played spoiler to the Cubs and now they’ll want to do it to us!
Last game and the game with Miami where Ashcraft held them down and the bullpen blew. Otherwise we’d have the tiebreaker on them too. I’d like our chances better if we were still within half game of the Cubs on Monday morning, but that’s going to be rough.
The entire 1st week /9 days of August is the one stretch of games that brought the Reds to this brink of elimination with a 2-8 record. 2 more wins there would have them almost certainly in the playoffs and close to a catbird’s seat for the #2 WC and a home series in the first round.
1-3 vs Cubs at Wrigley
0-3 vs Nats at GABP
1-2 vs Marlins at GABP
Losses to Cubs were the 2 double digit debacles.
Game 1 of Nats Series> Lost a lead with 2 outs in the 8th on a 2 run HR after 2 out and nobody on and lost the game on a 10th inning melt down by Diaz and never really in games 2 and 3 (7-3 and 6-3 losses).
Game 2 of Marlins series in T7 with 2 outs and nobody on Farmer allows a HBP. Sims comes on and allows a run HR to erase a Reds 2-1 lead and set the final 3-2 margin.
Game 3 of the Marlins series> Reds lead 4-1 going into T8 and allow 3 runs. With 2 out and a man on 1st, Moll replaces Gibaut and allows a single and 3 run HR to first 2 batters he faces to tie the game. Marlins get a 1st batter, 1st pitch solo homer off Diaz to start the 9th and win 5-4