Welcome to the final weekday matinee of the 2023 season at GABP. The Reds need to win the current series finale against the Twins today after dropping last night’s middle game of the set 7-0. ‘Nuf said about that. Today is a new day and another chance to jump right back into the middle of the National League Wild Card chase.
|SP: Bailey Ober||SP: Hunter Greene|
|1. Edouard Julien (DH)
2. Jorge Polanco (2B)
3. Donovan Solano (1B)
4. Max Kepler (RF)
5. Willi Castro (3B)
6. Kyle Farmer (SS)
7. Andrew Stevenson (LF)
8. Christian Vazquez (C)
9. Michael A. Taylor (CF)
|1. Jonathan India (2B)
2. TJ Friedl (CF)
3. Spencer Steer (LF)
4. Jake Fraley (DH)
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)
6. Joey Votto (1B)
7. Noelvi Marte (SS)
8. Will Benson (RF)
9. Luke Maile (C)
Fraley pretty obviously is power limited currently because of his toe injury; but, he does appear to be better than the alternatives. At least he walked twice and had a single last night as opposed to multiple K’s.
|Hunter Greene (R)||97.0||4.45||1.40||30.1%||10.5%|
|Bailey Ober (R)||127.2||3.67||1.13||5.0%||24.4%|
|Links: Hunter Greene’s Stats | Bailey Ober’s Stats
Hunter Greene makes his sixth start since returning to the Reds rotation on August 20. Greene’s last 3 starts have all been strong efforts from which the Reds emerged victorious after he pitched into the 6th inning of each game. He has allowed a grand total of just 3 earned runs across 17 innings of work in these 3 starts The Reds desperately need this level of performance from Greene today.
On the season, Greene has severe reverse splits. Right handed batters have hit him both harder and more frequently. However in his 3 most recent starts he has held the opposition to a BA/OBP/SLG% line of .136/.227/237.
The pitching charts still depict Greene as strictly a 3 pitch pitcher despite the the visual record indicating he is using different mixes of movement and velocity on his pitches than had been observed prior to his most recent IL stay.
28 year old right hander Bailey Ober was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 June draft (#346 overall) and has spent his entire career in the Minnesota organization. Ober made his MLB debut in May of 2021 and has been used exclusively as a starter in 54 prior MLB appearances, 20 in 2021 followed by just 11 in 2022 when he was troubled by a groin injury much of the season. This is Ober’s 24th MLB start of the 2023 today but just his second start since returning to the Twins after being optioned to AAA in late August.
Like Hunter Greene, Ober has a significant reverse slugging split due to having allowed 15 HR to right handed hitters. However his batting average and OBP against splits are virtually handedness neutral.
Ober leads with his fastball (46%) and uses his both his slider and change up around 20% of the time each. He is not a power pitcher as his fastball averages only 91.3MPH. Nonetheless he sports nearly a 25% K rate and walks a miniscule 5% of batters he faces. Reds hitters will need to be patient and not chase his breaking pitches and change up if they hope to succeed against him.
The Reds late inning A team of Alexis Diaz, Ian Gibaut, and Lucas Sims has yet to see action in this series. Alex Young and Derek Law have worked consecutive games. They are probably unavailable. Fernando Cruz and Daniel Duarte threw 25 and 29 pitches respectively on Tuesday. They are doubtful given the short turnaround.
No one for the Twins has worked consecutive nights. Their top backend relievers also have not seen action in the series. However Dallas Keuchel threw 58 pitches in long relief Monday and figures to be out.
News and Notes
The Reds AAA and AA teams are still playing read the latest about them here on our Reds Minor Leagues companion site.
David Bell speaks about Elly De La Cruz’s situation
David Bell on Elly De La Cruz: “It was another opportunity to really get Elly back on track giving him today and tomorrow’s off day. Two full days. He’s doing well. He has handled a lot. He’s handling everything. I do see signs of fatigue, which is very normal. Getting him those…
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) September 20, 2023
Here is the full truncated final sentence above from Bell, “Getting him (EDLC) those two days off is really important even with the importance of today’s game.”
When and Where
- Game time: 12:35pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv (out of market)
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 75°, some clouds, 0% chance of rain
Wild Card Standings
|Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | Top 3 Make Playoffs|
So, What Do You Think???
Might it behoove the Reds to find a way to win today’s game despite come what may in the days ahead? If they do not win it, will come what may even matter? Negative points for saying the Reds have done better than expected in 2023. Triple negative points for use of the word sorting or speculating about 2024 personnel, lineups etc.