St. Louis guaranteed themselves a series win on Saturday night with a second straight victory. The Reds will look to avoid a sweep this afternoon. Cincinnati is getting multiple starters back from the injured list with the hopes of picking up a victory against the Cardinals in what is basically a must-win game at this point. First pitch is set for 1:40pm ET.

Starting Lineups

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Lars Nootbaar – CF Jake Fraley – DH
Tommy Edman – 2B Elly De La Cruz – SS
Alec Burleson – 1B TJ Friedl – CF
Nolan Arenado – 3B Spencer Steer – 3B
Tyler O’Neill – LF Nick Martini – LF
Luken Baker – DH Joey Votto – 1B
Jordan Walker – RF Jonathan India – 2B
Andrew Knizner – C Luke Maile – C
Masyn Winn – SS Will Benson – RF
Miles Mikolas – RHP Hunter Greene – RHP

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB K
Hunter Greene 85.1 4.75 1.48 40 114
Miles Mikolas 171.0 4.63 1.32 35 114
Links:ย Hunter Greene’s Stats | Miles Mikolas’ Stats

Hunter Greene

After missing his last start, Hunter Greene is back and ready to take the mound. On September 30th he pitched against San Francisco and was strong, being charged with an unearned run in 5.1 innings. Greene has only faced the Cardinals once this season, back on June 11th and he struck out nine in 5.1 innings while giving up three runs in a Reds win.

Greene has some reverse splits. He pitches much better against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .203 average and a .696 OPS. Right-handed hitters, though, hit very well against him. They hit for a high average, have a solid walk rate, and hit for a lot of power against him.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
RHH 203 55 19 2 9 17 52 .299 .365 .571
LHH 180 31 8 2 5 23 62 .203 .317 .379

Pitch Usage

4-seam Slider Change
Velo 98.8 88.0 91.7
Usage 55% 39% 6%

Miles Mikolas

The Reds have faced Mikolas twice this season. The first time he threw 7.0 shutout innings against them. Two weeks later they scored five runs against him in 6.0 innings as the Reds won. In his last start he held Atlanta to three runs in 6.2 innings – with all three runs coming on solo homers.

The splits aren’t very big against Mikolas, but there is some difference. Lefties are hitting for a bit more power and walking less often. Neither righties or lefties walk all that much against him, and both make a good amount of contact.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
RHH 387 99 16 2 10 20 60 .277 .324 .417
LHH 345 91 24 1 10 15 54 .283 .315 .457

Pitch Usage

4-seam 2-seam Curve Slider Change
Velo 93.5 92.9 76.0 86.6 84.6
Usage 24% 26% 20% 24% 6%

When and Where

  • Game time: 6:40pm ET
  • Where: Great American Ball Park
  • Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv (out of market)
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 77ยฐ, cloudy, 0% chance of rain

News and Notes

More roster moves

Surely you saw the lineup already that included Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Hunter Greene – all of whom were on the injured list prior to today. The team made room for them by sending Alejo Lopez, Lyon Richardson, and Carson Spiers back to the minors. You can read more about all of the moves here.

Wild Card Standings

Team W L GB Playoff Odds
Philadelphia 78 63 +4.0 98.2%
Chicago 76 67 +1.0 82.0%
Arizona 75 68 0.0 56.5%
Miami 73 69 1.5 24.8%
San Francisco 72 70 2.5 27.9%
Cincinnati 73 71 2.5 11.1%
Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | Top 3 Make Playoffs

Division Standings

Team W L GB Playoff Odds
Brewers 79 62 0.0 99.1%
Cubs 76 67 4.0 82.0%
Reds 73 71 7.5 11.1%
Pirates 66 76 13.5 0.0%
Cardinals 63 79 16.5 0.0%
Playoff Odds via Fangraphs

110 Responses

  1. Mark Moore

    The extended winning streak starts today. It should have started yesterday or even Friday, but starting today still works. It’s a race against the end of the season and the only sure cure for the “we missed out blues” is to win. So the streak starts today.

    Buckle up and let’s Kick this WLB Pig!!

    • Melvin

      Everyone to your house for victory celebration cookout afterwards? ๐Ÿ˜‰

    • Jim Walker

      +10K And no football talk here today I hope.

      • Mark Moore

        There is no football on today. I haven’t watched an NFL game (outside of the Stupid Bowl) in years. Only college games for me, so we’re safe … ๐Ÿ˜›

      • Jim Walker

        Same here except what is force fed us when CBS schedules 60 Minutes for its regular time knowing they are going to bleed NFL over until at least 7:30.

  2. Jim Walker

    Call me a mean old person if you must but I really hope today and the week(s) ahead are about the Reds busting their behinds for a playoff spot and not Joey Votto’s birthday and a following discussion of his status for 2024.

    As that one Kenny Rodgers song said, “There’ll be time enough for counting when the dealing (playing) is done.”

    • Mark Moore

      +50,000

      Exactly. Just win, baby, win!! Everything else will fall in place if we do that.

    • LDS

      @JimWalker, I think we all agree with that. It’s just that some of us aren’t willing to bet that will be what we see. Frankly, I don’t think anyone really cares how they finish out the year. They’ve “exceeded expectations” and will hang their hats on that.

      • Mark Moore

        That already got HDTBell another three years. Well, that and the fact that he’s cheap and “practically family”.

      • LDS

        Yeah, Mark, as I said at the time of the extension, re-signing Bell showed their priority was not building a winning team.

  3. VaRedsFan

    With the season in jeopardy…
    Maile started 2 of 3 vs the Cards instead of red hot TySteve.

    Because??????

    Bell knows things!!

    • Kevin H

      Makes it harder and harder. I don’t get it anymore

    • Jim Walker

      And starting from an off day when they could have been sequenced either way then followed by an off day to reset the sequence if they wished.

      I was thinking of this last night; and, really believe there is a side of Bell that relishes having Stephenson as a 2nd wave RH bat to sub in on the flip back to an LH reliever after an RH reliever has replaced an LH starting pitcher.

    • Mark Moore

      +5,000

      Add to that tomorrow off and it’s beyond baffling even for the most ardent supporter of HDTBell. Plus Maile took a beating Friday night.

      • Kevin H

        I still believe what I talk about alot, however as I mentioned gets harder and harder to figure out the thinking.

    • Melvin

      Me doesn’t know de answer to that.

  4. Mark Moore

    That’s a rusty first 4 pitches ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

  5. Mark Moore

    Great … audio is way out of sync again today. That’s beyond annoying. Perhaps I’ll try video on TV and audio on my laptop.

    • Mark Moore

      OK, I’ve got some semblance of “sync” now. The things I’ll do to avoid Sadak and Larkin ๐Ÿ˜€

  6. Mark Moore

    No challenge on that? The throw beat him but the tag was late. Bad call by whoever makes the recommendation. Of course, who knows what NY would say.

    • Jim Walker

      Was that guy in the white striped polo shirt shown talking to Bell maybe in reference about the word (or lack of it) from the video replay? Because as aggressive as Bell typically is on replays that really was surprising that he passed on that one.

    • Rick

      Safe for sure. Martini would’ve gotten him to 3rd too.

  7. Rick

    I’d prefer Tyler hitting 4 times vs a one or two ab appearance..
    Welcome JI!!

  8. Mark Moore

    More questionable calls by today’s Chumpire.

  9. DW

    Seems like Hunter has to battle through bad defense more often than the other starters.

    • DW

      And he seems to let it get to him mentally…evidenced here by following up with three straight balls and a walk to the next hitter.

  10. Mark Moore

    Error and a BB … that’s not a good formula for success here in the 4th.

  11. Mark Moore

    At least one of those was high per the box, but not as high as the garbage last night. So Marmol had better shut it or go take a shower.

  12. Mark Moore

    That’s what we give up with India at 2nd. Considerably less range than MattyMc or even Steer. Hope it doesn’t come back to bite us. It does run the pitch count up to the point where 5 is probably the limit for Hunter today.

  13. Mark Moore

    OK … now I can breathe again.

  14. AllTheHype

    I don’t think Hunter has thrown a single changeup in this game yet. And he’s also not varying the speed on 4 seam and slider much, like he was in the middle of the year (softer early, harder late). He’s not taking many steps forward imo. He’s very limited with his current repertoire and it will almost certainly get him in pitch count trouble, like today, when batters only need to defend two pitches.

    He needs to make some adjustments this offseason, for sure.

    • DW

      I was thinking the same thing just before you commented and went through on Gamecast to see. I saw two changeups.

      • AllTheHype

        The thing is, during his rehab in Louisville, he was throwing a two seem changeup of some sort that was different than what he threw before he got hurt. Doug even did a piece on it. And he was throwing it with some frequency, maybe just as practice. But he obviously doesn’t have confidence in it at the ML level. Maybe it just needs more work and to go through a spring training with it so there is less pressure when he makes a mistake with it. I guess we won’t know til next year.

        Hopefully he comes up with something, because his 4 seam and slider are very effective, just not enough to keep hitters guessing.

    • DW

      At the very least he needs to vary his fastball with a two seamer or sinker or cutter, to go along with his four seamer. It isn’t hard to develop one of those and mix it in here and there.

    • VaRedsFan

      No Derrick Johnson pupil has ever been pitch efficient. Starter nor bullpen.

  15. Kevin H

    If steer doesn’t commit the error it’s a scoreless inning

  16. Mark Moore

    Who is showing up for pizza tonight? I need a headcount.

    And can somebody bring some Nootbaars for dessert?

  17. Mark Moore

    Greene may have just bought himself the chance to start the 6th. Especially if the boys can back him with a hit parade.

  18. LDS

    The Reds really need a pitching guru who can work with Greene. The Cards aren’t hitting him at the moment but his pitch count is too high and so are his walks. He could be so much better with good instruction.

    • Kevin H

      See we agree most of the time. LOL

    • Rick

      He still a thrower. You are right.
      His slider looks pretty good today.

      • Mark Moore

        His slider does look good. Throwing it for strikes whether or not they swing even.

  19. AllTheHype

    India looks like the India that opened the season. Cleared his head and he’s ready to rip the rock again.

    • Mark Moore

      Makes you wonder how long he “hid” his injury and how much longer that made his rehab process.

  20. Rick

    Maile is a #2. Stephenson needs to be playing. Dire straits time for us.

  21. Harry Stoner

    Benson settling back into the the #9 slot.

  22. Rick

    Will lost his helmet. That’s a first. Lol

    • Jim Walker

      Jake’s mistake….. Went for broke when a punch through the IF was good for 2.

      • Mark Moore

        That’s what CES did the other night in the 9th. Pushed it right through a massive hole.

      • Rick

        For sure Jim.
        Launch angle popup monster got him.

  23. Mark Moore

    Well nuts … thought maybe we’d catch some magic there.

  24. Mark Moore

    If you run Baker’s name together and add in their CF’er you’d get an all Nordic team of Nootbaar and Lukenbaaker … ๐Ÿ˜›

    • Rick

      Hahaha!
      I’m from Lukenbaaker Tx with Waylon Willie & the boys!

  25. Mark Moore

    OK … we get 6 from Hunter. And was that one run earned or unearned due to Steer’s error?

  26. AllTheHype

    Shows you how good Hunter’s 4 seam and Slider are, that he can get thru 6 innings giving up one hit with just those 2 pitches, If only he had another effective pitch they had to think about that he could throw 15-20% of the time, Hunter would be an all star level guy imo.

    I think we’ll see it happen, eventually.

    • Jim Walker

      Greene effectively had 3 pitches today, at least per the Bally graphics. He was throwing one “slider” at 88-91 and the other at 83-85. The action on the two pitches was also much different. I would not be surprised if it turns out one was a cutter and not a true double action slider.

      • AllTheHype

        He was varying the speeds of his slider in the middle of the year as well. Gameday has him in a range from 84 to 89 today. maybe 1 or 2 changeups all game. Just not enough variation there yet but I think he’s smart enough to figure it out eventually.

  27. Jim Walker

    Presuming Greene is done for the day after delivering exactly what the team needed. Yeah his control was a bit off but this was just his 3rd start after a 60 day stint on the IL and 10 days on COVID list following his most recent start.

    • Mark Moore

      Having gone through a round of COVID last year, I can attest to how puny it can make you feel.

  28. Mark Moore

    Friedl and his new belt can walk home from there.

    Nice job all the way around.

  29. Mark Moore

    Well, well, well … that kick-back made the triple for the Grey Goose

  30. Roger Garrett

    Fifth run is a big one right here.So what does Bell do?

    • Mark Moore

      Probably the right call to PR Bader there.

  31. Mark Moore

    I just noticed this is another slow-moving game today. But we’re winning, so that’s a good thing.

  32. Mark Moore

    Again the Chumpire sitting right on the sight line and blows the call. At least India ended up on first.

  33. Mark Moore

    So as much as I like the Bader PR, why isn’t TySteve the PH here when we’ve got them down and our foot on their throat?

  34. Mark Moore

    This OF defensive alignment is one good thing about the Bader PR. Those three aren’t going to let much get past them unless it goes over the fence.

  35. Mark Moore

    Easy inning for Farmer. So of course he won’t come back out for the 8th. Because “the book” says he can’t.

    • Mark Moore

      I’d run him out there on a moderately short leash. Then I’d look to get Antone some work to close this one out.

  36. Kevin H

    I am curious how many teams do this rightly/lefty pitch hitting. Depending on the pitcher

    • Mark Moore

      I’m sure somebody could look it up, but I’d about guarantee it doesn’t happen nearly as much outside of HDTBell’s world.

      There are exceptions, of course. Guys like Joey don’t often get yanked for a PH’er.

  37. LDS

    Just checking back in and see the Reds are up 5-1. That’s good. Unfortunately, I see little Davy has resorted to his L/R substitution strategy. Let’s see if he does it to Votto on his birthday.

    • Mark Moore

      Little bit … he can’t resist it, you know.

  38. Mark Moore

    I guess his arm wasn’t that hurt after all ๐Ÿ˜€

  39. LDS

    Well imagine that, Friedl hit a HR against a LH’er. Hey, Tinker, did you see that?

  40. Mark Moore

    We get TJ here which means we’ll get Diaz for the 9th so “he can get some work in”.

    Write it down. Unless somebody wants to bet against me … ๐Ÿ˜›

  41. Mark Moore

    Presuming we can go on a solid run and get that WC spot, and if the Stupid Cubs don’t implode … raise your hand if you had the Bernies, the Stupid Cubs, and our Queen City Redlegs all playing in October … ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

  42. Mark Moore

    Nice inning from TJ. And I loved that 2nd pitch after the one that almost cut him a new navel.

  43. Mark Moore

    Happy Birthday to Joey in his last AB today.

    • Mark Moore

      That’s the 3rd element of the in-game parlay from the pre-game. India got his bases and Hunter got his K’s. Just needed a Joey Bang.

      Somebody needs to go to the Bally booth and help clean up Sadak’s … uh … stuff. I’m sure he lost it in a HUGE way on that one.

      • Rick

        Think he spilled his Martini down his leg!

    • Jim Walker

      I’m stubborn and set in my ways. Can’t wish JV a happy birthday until the Reds successfully record these final 3 outs. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      • Mark Moore

        You are allowed, sir.

        And I’m OK with him being in the Jim Day interview, but Benson should also be there today. And maybe Greene.

  44. Mark Moore

    Benson is a machine today. Triple short of the cycle.

  45. Mark Moore

    Burnes and the Bernies trying for the no-no against the Evil Empire. But they haven’t scored yet.

  46. Mark Moore

    Let’s see if Diaz can cruise through the 9th given there is zero pressure on him. Y’all knew he would pitch the 9th.

  47. DW

    Seems ridiculous to throw Diaz here. I know guys like to stay on a pitching schedule, but can’t he just throw a quick and light bullpen or something? Put in Law, Duarte, or Shreve there.

  48. RedsGettingBetter

    1-hitter , Greene & the bullpen outstanding… The renewed offense , got the job done today… Keep fighting in the Comerica next week… Go Reds!

  49. DW

    Great to get a win. Great to see Hunter throw well. He is more than a thrower. And he is a starter. He just has a little more work to do to get consistent.

  50. Doc

    74 wins and counting.
    1-0 in Votto and Indiaโ€™s return.
    September 10 and not mathematically eliminated yet.
    By the way, none of the Reds walks allowed scored, in part because none of the hitters following a walk left the yard. Lack of HR allowed matters!