St. Louis guaranteed themselves a series win on Saturday night with a second straight victory. The Reds will look to avoid a sweep this afternoon. Cincinnati is getting multiple starters back from the injured list with the hopes of picking up a victory against the Cardinals in what is basically a must-win game at this point. First pitch is set for 1:40pm ET.
Starting Lineups
St. Louis Cardinals |
Cincinnati Reds
|
| Lars Nootbaar – CF | Jake Fraley – DH |
| Tommy Edman – 2B | Elly De La Cruz – SS |
| Alec Burleson – 1B | TJ Friedl – CF |
| Nolan Arenado – 3B | Spencer Steer – 3B |
| Tyler O’Neill – LF | Nick Martini – LF |
| Luken Baker – DH | Joey Votto – 1B |
| Jordan Walker – RF | Jonathan India – 2B |
| Andrew Knizner – C | Luke Maile – C |
| Masyn Winn – SS | Will Benson – RF |
| Miles Mikolas – RHP | Hunter Greene – RHP |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB | K |
| Hunter Greene | 85.1 | 4.75 | 1.48 | 40 | 114 |
| Miles Mikolas | 171.0 | 4.63 | 1.32 | 35 | 114 |
| Links: Hunter Greene’s Stats | Miles Mikolas’ Stats |
|||||
Hunter Greene
After missing his last start, Hunter Greene is back and ready to take the mound. On September 30th he pitched against San Francisco and was strong, being charged with an unearned run in 5.1 innings. Greene has only faced the Cardinals once this season, back on June 11th and he struck out nine in 5.1 innings while giving up three runs in a Reds win.
Greene has some reverse splits. He pitches much better against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .203 average and a .696 OPS. Right-handed hitters, though, hit very well against him. They hit for a high average, have a solid walk rate, and hit for a lot of power against him.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 203 | 55 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 52 | .299 | .365 | .571 |
| LHH | 180 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 62 | .203 | .317 | .379 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-seam | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 98.8 | 88.0 | 91.7 |
| Usage | 55% | 39% | 6% |
Miles Mikolas
The Reds have faced Mikolas twice this season. The first time he threw 7.0 shutout innings against them. Two weeks later they scored five runs against him in 6.0 innings as the Reds won. In his last start he held Atlanta to three runs in 6.2 innings – with all three runs coming on solo homers.
The splits aren’t very big against Mikolas, but there is some difference. Lefties are hitting for a bit more power and walking less often. Neither righties or lefties walk all that much against him, and both make a good amount of contact.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 387 | 99 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 60 | .277 | .324 | .417 |
| LHH | 345 | 91 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 54 | .283 | .315 | .457 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-seam | 2-seam | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 93.5 | 92.9 | 76.0 | 86.6 | 84.6 |
| Usage | 24% | 26% | 20% | 24% | 6% |
When and Where
- Game time: 6:40pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv (out of market)
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 77°, cloudy, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
More roster moves
Surely you saw the lineup already that included Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Hunter Greene – all of whom were on the injured list prior to today. The team made room for them by sending Alejo Lopez, Lyon Richardson, and Carson Spiers back to the minors. You can read more about all of the moves here.
Wild Card Standings
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Philadelphia | 78 | 63 | +4.0 | 98.2% |
| Chicago | 76 | 67 | +1.0 | 82.0% |
| Arizona | 75 | 68 | 0.0 | 56.5% |
| Miami | 73 | 69 | 1.5 | 24.8% |
| San Francisco | 72 | 70 | 2.5 | 27.9% |
| Cincinnati | 73 | 71 | 2.5 | 11.1% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | Top 3 Make Playoffs | ||||
Division Standings
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Brewers | 79 | 62 | 0.0 | 99.1% |
| Cubs | 76 | 67 | 4.0 | 82.0% |
| Reds | 73 | 71 | 7.5 | 11.1% |
| Pirates | 66 | 76 | 13.5 | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | 63 | 79 | 16.5 | 0.0% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | ||||
The extended winning streak starts today. It should have started yesterday or even Friday, but starting today still works. It’s a race against the end of the season and the only sure cure for the “we missed out blues” is to win. So the streak starts today.
Buckle up and let’s Kick this WLB Pig!!
Everyone to your house for victory celebration cookout afterwards? 😉
It’s homemade pizza tonight, Melvin.
Tell me more
Cool. We’d better win now. 😀
Maybe the Doug & Mark Pizzeria? D&M Pizzeria?
+10K And no football talk here today I hope.
There is no football on today. I haven’t watched an NFL game (outside of the Stupid Bowl) in years. Only college games for me, so we’re safe … 😛
Same here except what is force fed us when CBS schedules 60 Minutes for its regular time knowing they are going to bleed NFL over until at least 7:30.
Call me a mean old person if you must but I really hope today and the week(s) ahead are about the Reds busting their behinds for a playoff spot and not Joey Votto’s birthday and a following discussion of his status for 2024.
As that one Kenny Rodgers song said, “There’ll be time enough for counting when the dealing (playing) is done.”
+50,000
Exactly. Just win, baby, win!! Everything else will fall in place if we do that.
I agree
@JimWalker, I think we all agree with that. It’s just that some of us aren’t willing to bet that will be what we see. Frankly, I don’t think anyone really cares how they finish out the year. They’ve “exceeded expectations” and will hang their hats on that.
That already got HDTBell another three years. Well, that and the fact that he’s cheap and “practically family”.
Yeah, Mark, as I said at the time of the extension, re-signing Bell showed their priority was not building a winning team.
With the season in jeopardy…
Maile started 2 of 3 vs the Cards instead of red hot TySteve.
Because??????
Bell knows things!!
Makes it harder and harder. I don’t get it anymore
And starting from an off day when they could have been sequenced either way then followed by an off day to reset the sequence if they wished.
I was thinking of this last night; and, really believe there is a side of Bell that relishes having Stephenson as a 2nd wave RH bat to sub in on the flip back to an LH reliever after an RH reliever has replaced an LH starting pitcher.
+5,000
Add to that tomorrow off and it’s beyond baffling even for the most ardent supporter of HDTBell. Plus Maile took a beating Friday night.
I still believe what I talk about alot, however as I mentioned gets harder and harder to figure out the thinking.
Me doesn’t know de answer to that.
That’s a rusty first 4 pitches 😮
Great … audio is way out of sync again today. That’s beyond annoying. Perhaps I’ll try video on TV and audio on my laptop.
OK, I’ve got some semblance of “sync” now. The things I’ll do to avoid Sadak and Larkin 😀
No challenge on that? The throw beat him but the tag was late. Bad call by whoever makes the recommendation. Of course, who knows what NY would say.
Was that guy in the white striped polo shirt shown talking to Bell maybe in reference about the word (or lack of it) from the video replay? Because as aggressive as Bell typically is on replays that really was surprising that he passed on that one.
Safe for sure. Martini would’ve gotten him to 3rd too.
I’d prefer Tyler hitting 4 times vs a one or two ab appearance..
Welcome JI!!
Welcome back Jonathan India!!
Yay WB!!
Benson says “hold my beer”
More questionable calls by today’s Chumpire.
Seems like Hunter has to battle through bad defense more often than the other starters.
And he seems to let it get to him mentally…evidenced here by following up with three straight balls and a walk to the next hitter.
Error and a BB … that’s not a good formula for success here in the 4th.
At least one of those was high per the box, but not as high as the garbage last night. So Marmol had better shut it or go take a shower.
That’s what we give up with India at 2nd. Considerably less range than MattyMc or even Steer. Hope it doesn’t come back to bite us. It does run the pitch count up to the point where 5 is probably the limit for Hunter today.
OK … now I can breathe again.
I don’t think Hunter has thrown a single changeup in this game yet. And he’s also not varying the speed on 4 seam and slider much, like he was in the middle of the year (softer early, harder late). He’s not taking many steps forward imo. He’s very limited with his current repertoire and it will almost certainly get him in pitch count trouble, like today, when batters only need to defend two pitches.
He needs to make some adjustments this offseason, for sure.
I was thinking the same thing just before you commented and went through on Gamecast to see. I saw two changeups.
The thing is, during his rehab in Louisville, he was throwing a two seem changeup of some sort that was different than what he threw before he got hurt. Doug even did a piece on it. And he was throwing it with some frequency, maybe just as practice. But he obviously doesn’t have confidence in it at the ML level. Maybe it just needs more work and to go through a spring training with it so there is less pressure when he makes a mistake with it. I guess we won’t know til next year.
Hopefully he comes up with something, because his 4 seam and slider are very effective, just not enough to keep hitters guessing.
At the very least he needs to vary his fastball with a two seamer or sinker or cutter, to go along with his four seamer. It isn’t hard to develop one of those and mix it in here and there.
No Derrick Johnson pupil has ever been pitch efficient. Starter nor bullpen.
If steer doesn’t commit the error it’s a scoreless inning
Who is showing up for pizza tonight? I need a headcount.
And can somebody bring some Nootbaars for dessert?
I am in
Me me me
Greene may have just bought himself the chance to start the 6th. Especially if the boys can back him with a hit parade.
The Reds really need a pitching guru who can work with Greene. The Cards aren’t hitting him at the moment but his pitch count is too high and so are his walks. He could be so much better with good instruction.
See we agree most of the time. LOL
Say it ain’t so, @KevinH
He still a thrower. You are right.
His slider looks pretty good today.
His slider does look good. Throwing it for strikes whether or not they swing even.
India looks like the India that opened the season. Cleared his head and he’s ready to rip the rock again.
Makes you wonder how long he “hid” his injury and how much longer that made his rehab process.
Maile is a #2. Stephenson needs to be playing. Dire straits time for us.
Benson settling back into the the #9 slot.
Will lost his helmet. That’s a first. Lol
Rake time Jake.
Jake’s mistake….. Went for broke when a punch through the IF was good for 2.
+500
Situational hitting.
That’s what CES did the other night in the 9th. Pushed it right through a massive hole.
For sure Jim.
Launch angle popup monster got him.
Well nuts … thought maybe we’d catch some magic there.
If you run Baker’s name together and add in their CF’er you’d get an all Nordic team of Nootbaar and Lukenbaaker … 😛
Hahaha!
I’m from Lukenbaaker Tx with Waylon Willie & the boys!
OK … we get 6 from Hunter. And was that one run earned or unearned due to Steer’s error?
Unearned
Shows you how good Hunter’s 4 seam and Slider are, that he can get thru 6 innings giving up one hit with just those 2 pitches, If only he had another effective pitch they had to think about that he could throw 15-20% of the time, Hunter would be an all star level guy imo.
I think we’ll see it happen, eventually.
Greene effectively had 3 pitches today, at least per the Bally graphics. He was throwing one “slider” at 88-91 and the other at 83-85. The action on the two pitches was also much different. I would not be surprised if it turns out one was a cutter and not a true double action slider.
He was varying the speeds of his slider in the middle of the year as well. Gameday has him in a range from 84 to 89 today. maybe 1 or 2 changeups all game. Just not enough variation there yet but I think he’s smart enough to figure it out eventually.
Presuming Greene is done for the day after delivering exactly what the team needed. Yeah his control was a bit off but this was just his 3rd start after a 60 day stint on the IL and 10 days on COVID list following his most recent start.
Having gone through a round of COVID last year, I can attest to how puny it can make you feel.
Friedl and his new belt can walk home from there.
Nice job all the way around.
Well, well, well … that kick-back made the triple for the Grey Goose
Fifth run is a big one right here.So what does Bell do?
Probably the right call to PR Bader there.
I just noticed this is another slow-moving game today. But we’re winning, so that’s a good thing.
Again the Chumpire sitting right on the sight line and blows the call. At least India ended up on first.
So as much as I like the Bader PR, why isn’t TySteve the PH here when we’ve got them down and our foot on their throat?
This OF defensive alignment is one good thing about the Bader PR. Those three aren’t going to let much get past them unless it goes over the fence.
Easy inning for Farmer. So of course he won’t come back out for the 8th. Because “the book” says he can’t.
I’d run him out there on a moderately short leash. Then I’d look to get Antone some work to close this one out.
I am curious how many teams do this rightly/lefty pitch hitting. Depending on the pitcher
I’m sure somebody could look it up, but I’d about guarantee it doesn’t happen nearly as much outside of HDTBell’s world.
There are exceptions, of course. Guys like Joey don’t often get yanked for a PH’er.
Just checking back in and see the Reds are up 5-1. That’s good. Unfortunately, I see little Davy has resorted to his L/R substitution strategy. Let’s see if he does it to Votto on his birthday.
Little bit … he can’t resist it, you know.
I guess his arm wasn’t that hurt after all 😀
Well imagine that, Friedl hit a HR against a LH’er. Hey, Tinker, did you see that?
We get TJ here which means we’ll get Diaz for the 9th so “he can get some work in”.
Write it down. Unless somebody wants to bet against me … 😛
Hahaha
U called it!!!
Presuming we can go on a solid run and get that WC spot, and if the Stupid Cubs don’t implode … raise your hand if you had the Bernies, the Stupid Cubs, and our Queen City Redlegs all playing in October … 😮
Nice inning from TJ. And I loved that 2nd pitch after the one that almost cut him a new navel.
Happy Birthday JV!
Happy Birthday to Joey in his last AB today.
That’s the 3rd element of the in-game parlay from the pre-game. India got his bases and Hunter got his K’s. Just needed a Joey Bang.
Somebody needs to go to the Bally booth and help clean up Sadak’s … uh … stuff. I’m sure he lost it in a HUGE way on that one.
Think he spilled his Martini down his leg!
I’m stubborn and set in my ways. Can’t wish JV a happy birthday until the Reds successfully record these final 3 outs. 😉
You are allowed, sir.
And I’m OK with him being in the Jim Day interview, but Benson should also be there today. And maybe Greene.
Happy Birthday Joey V.
Yay Will.
Benson is a machine today. Triple short of the cycle.
Burnes and the Bernies trying for the no-no against the Evil Empire. But they haven’t scored yet.
Let’s see if Diaz can cruise through the 9th given there is zero pressure on him. Y’all knew he would pitch the 9th.
Seems ridiculous to throw Diaz here. I know guys like to stay on a pitching schedule, but can’t he just throw a quick and light bullpen or something? Put in Law, Duarte, or Shreve there.
1-hitter , Greene & the bullpen outstanding… The renewed offense , got the job done today… Keep fighting in the Comerica next week… Go Reds!
Great to get a win. Great to see Hunter throw well. He is more than a thrower. And he is a starter. He just has a little more work to do to get consistent.
74 wins and counting.
1-0 in Votto and India’s return.
September 10 and not mathematically eliminated yet.
By the way, none of the Reds walks allowed scored, in part because none of the hitters following a walk left the yard. Lack of HR allowed matters!