After dropping the afternoon game on Friday the Cincinnati Reds desperately needed to win the nightcap against the Cubs. Chicago held a lead heading into the bottom of the 9th, but Nick Martini hit a long home run to tie the game up and two batters later it was rookie Noelvi Marte picking up a walk-off single to give the Reds a split of the doubleheader.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs (72-63) |
2 | 5 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds (70-67) |
3 | 8 | 0 |
| W: Diaz (7-4) L: Alzolay (2-5) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Lyon Richardson stepped into the big leagues after being called up between games one and two. He ran into trouble early, walking the first two batters of the game before striking out Ian Happ. Then he walked Cody Bellinger to load the bases, but he’s pick up back-to-back strikeouts to avoid any damage. He’d have to work around a walk and a single in the 2nd inning but was able to do that as well. Richardson wasn’t so lucky in the 3rd inning as he gave up a solo homer to Cody Bellinger as the Cubs grabbed a 1-0 lead.
That lead didn’t last very long as the Reds got the run back in the bottom of the frame on back-to-back doubles from Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl. They couldn’t bring Friedl around and settled for one run in the inning.
Richardson would pitch into the 5th inning, retiring the first two batters before a walk of Nico Hoerner. That would end his day and what turned out to be his longest outing of the year at any level. The Reds called in Sam Moll from the bullpen and he saw Hoerner steal second and then score on an Ian Happ single to put the Cubs back in front 2-1.
Neither team got much going from there until the bottom of the 8th when Jake Fraley had a 1-out doule to put himself in scoring position. Harrison Bader came in to pinch run for him and then moved over to third when TJ Friedl laid down what turned out to be a sacrifice bunt, but Bader would be stranded at third when Spencer Steer struck out to end the inning.
With the score still 2-1 the Reds had the middle of their order due up in the bottom of the 9th inning. Elly De La Cruz struck out for the 4th time in the game to start the inning. Nick Martini made up for that by hitting a game tying home run 20 rows into right center. Christian Encarnacion-Strand followed with a single and Stuart Fairchild took over as a pinch runner. That brought Will Benson to the plate. He battled, but struck out on the 7th pitch of the at-bat, but Fairchld stole second base and then took third when the throw went into center. Noelvi Marte was set up to be a hero with the winning run 90 feet away and be a hero he was as he lined a single into center for a walk-off win to give Cincinnati a split of the doubleheader.
Key Moment of the Game
Noelvi Marte’s game winning single, but we’re giving an assist to Nick Martini’s moonshot that tied the game up two batters earlier.
Notes worth noting
Jake Fraley picked up three hits, including two doubles on the night.
Buck Farmer, Ian Gibaut (2 innings), and Alexis Diaz combined for four shutout innings of relief.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Saturday September 2nd, 6:40pm ET
Javier Assad (3-2, 2.96 ERA) vs Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35 ERA)
Reds played a good baseball game and beat a good team. Give Cubs credit…They are good. Fraley and Marte shined. Richardson competed…they found a way, bullpen solid.
Win tomorrow and Reds are back in it. It’s Labor Day…most Folks didnt give Memorial Day a chance
Truth
Maybe Bell should let Fraley bat more vs LH pitching? I just want to see them grow beyond the dead end of lock step platooning and could care less about the personalities involved so long as they do not require the baggage of a platoon partner who is a liability versus the 70% of pitchers who are RH.
I’d like to think the game winning hit by Marte propels this team into something great. Who knows? One thing I do know is that 14 Ks by our hitters and our pitchers giving up six walks every night will not likely get it done. Expect MORE out of your players Mr. Bell.
Like scoring more than three runs to start.
25 games to go, 11-14 would give them a far better mark than I and most of the Reds fan base expected. Unfortunately, a .440 winning percentage is well above what they’ve done in the 2nd half. Can it happen? Sure. Will it happen? I’m not betting on it. I’m not seeing the fire, the drive to make it to the playoffs. They still seem lackluster to me.
Everybody seems lackluster when they’re not hitting. Pitching hasn’t been that bad. They’ve completed, but too many guys hitting a wall combined with key injuries. Same guys for Milw and the Cubs show up every day
@IRM, the problem is that this pattern seems to play out year after year. That is a systemic problem.
The Reds are playing 6+ rookies every night.The cubs and brewers are not.Thats the difference.
@Jon and last year when they collapsed? It’s not just that the rookies are playing, it’s that they, for the most part, aren’t developing.
I would not call last year a collapse. To be a collapse you have to have played decently throughout the year. We lost 100 games. Last year was a management decision.
In 2021 our top players were Suarez, India, Votto, Castellanos, Farmer and Winker. Those players did seem to run out of gas. And I think that may have played into decisions being made to not commit long term to many of them.
This team has/had 7 rookies playing the field and basically 3/5 of the starting rotation. Also, the bullpen is entirely different than last year minus the closer. So this is a very different team.
Doesn’t mean we are a playoff team – or a consistent team, but development has been impressive this year.
Steer, Benson and McClain and Abbot aren’t developing? For that matter, CES and, in particular, Marte haven’t been up for long and, as Jim points out, EDLC, despite his gaudy strike-out numbers, is still producing, albeit streakily, and it could be reasonably argued that his current travails are part of his development process.
I’ve seen this type of comment often here from various posters:
“I’m not seeing the fire, the drive to make it to the playoffs. They still seem lackluster to me.“
It’s hard to reconcile that thinking with this fact:
The Reds lead all of MLB in come from behind wins.
Very good point. I think many fans confuse overmatched with lacking fire. There are just going to be nights when rookie hitters are overmatched by MLB starting pitchers. Heck, there are nights when Mike Trout is going to be overmatched by certain MLB pitchers.
You gotta love these Redlegs… for some reason they love 9th inning comebacks, so don’t count them out until the last out. With Abbott and Williamson up to pitch the next two games, I like our chances. Fraley is back and rakin’. Let’s score some runs !
“Let’s score some runs” is right, Andrew. The remainder of the season depends on offensive improvement.
I am a little worried about Diaz. His fastball was sitting at 96 or 97 mph early in the season and now most of his fastballs seem to sit at 92 or 93. It is forcing him to throw more breaking p itches and that has led to more walks.
That’s what I see, too.
He’s as gassed as any of our other over used relivers. It’s the consequence of not having a decent rotation that can cover innings. I’m sure Bell would like to protect his arm more, but we’re in a playoff chase, and have zero other good options in closing situation.
Not that tired arms is reversible but this was visible to many of us in July. Yet we didn’t add any starter length at the deadline and continued pitching our 4 inning studs Weaver, Kennedy, Richardson, Greene, et al 3-4 weeks into August. I agree Diaz looks less sharp but some of this could have been addressed. Betting the farm on Lodolo, Abbott, and Greene in September doesn’t seem like the right decision to me……especially with no foreseeable depth at Louisville with Stoudt and Phillips getting lit up and Richardson just returning from TJ. Roster enlargement and off days will provide some relief but we will still need some regular 6 inning starts or we will be going even deeper at Louisville in a pennant race. What a plan.
Hats off to management for some good organizational depth acquisitions over the last couple years. Even with injuries, there are a number of AA/AAA guys who are respectable fill-ins who can flash like Martini is now. Also, considering the low payroll, the Reds have gotten some good bullpen performance, roughly equivalent to teams like the Rays and Cubs. I think Raisel Iglesias makes almost double the Reds whole bullpen.
Didn’t the Reds introduce Raisel to the Big Leagues ? His greatness was touted, but we didn’t see it. I think the Reds can hit him.
Someone tell EDLC to go take a sauna. It will change his mental outlook, and just may help his swing. I know it works for me.
Season salvaged… for now. I agree with Melvin: 3 runs and 14 strikeouts won’t continue to cut it. Richardson, though shaky at times, did his job well.
Nothing is salvaged with this one win. We need to reduce these Cubs in two more games.
There will be no bigger disappointment in Reds history if EDLC doesn’t cut way down on his K rate. Eerily similar to Barrero. Let’s hope he gets past this soon.
LOL
“EDLC will be ‘fine’.”
Right?
I think as Elly De La Cruz facility with English improves his approach to hitting in the Bigs will also improve. For now, major league pitching seems to have his number especially when he has two strikes.
Are we sure Elly isn’t the second coming of AA?
Seriously though, something has to be said about this Reds team and their ability to pull out a win when they need it most. They have been doing it all season and did it again last night. I don’t think they are going to make the playoffs, but it really is impressive (IMO) that they have been able to hang around this long. Our dudes consistently play until the final out and there is something to be said for that.
Who cares if EDLC is the 2nd coming of AA in K’s as long as he plays the defense he has, creates havoc on the bases as he has, and about 10% of his PAs result in extra base hits? At his current rate, in a qualifying season (minimum of 502 PA), he would have 20 doubles, 9 triples, and 20 HR.
This said, dropping him in the batting order might be a good thing.
Also he has yet to reach the age of 22; and AA was several years older before he got his extended MLB look. Let’s give EDLC until 25 as long as he produces at least as well as he has to date, regardless of K rate.
Good points, Jim. Elly also had a better MiLB career than did AA, I believe.
GreenMtRed>> You are correct that the only real clearly stand out MiLB numbers for AA were in 2019.
AA was non tendered by the Reds following the 2018 season when he was first called up to MLB and had 1 PA in 1MLB game appearance. He was then immediately signed to a minor league deal by the Reds and put together his age 25 incredible season in 2019 starting as a nonroster player in AAA and ending up with his explosive MLB run in August.
Another interesting sidelight in his story is that Aquino did not appear in an AAA game until after his very brief MLB debut in 2018 when he was called up from Class AA. In fact, his 1st AAA appearance was in 2019.
And 40 SB Jim which converts singles to doubles…..and a couple doubles to triples.
Huge win and we will continue to play meaningful baseball in September. Who would of thought? Scott Barlow just released from KC. Maybe he can help us out this month. Hopkins sent down finally. Good to see Farley. Is India done for the year.Votto??
Thats Joe Barlow of the Royals…not Scott Barlow. Scott was traded to the Padres.
Thanks for clarifying
Good, competitive game 2. Fraley doesn’t get enough credit. Bullpen getting back to being very consistent. Maybe they can hang in for another month – they will all be over 65 appearances when it’s over, which is crazy.
Worried about this covid outbreak. This has the potential of causing 2 starters to be skipped in next 7 days – further taxing the bullpen and pushing non-starters to start just when we need iur best on the mound.
Richardson did well though. Hopefully Kennedy and Spiers can give us 1 decent start. And hopefully Renfro and Bader can start to help. Need that MLB pennant chase experience.
The Reds don’t score more than 4 runs since a week ago (6 games) going 2-4 in that strech…
I think it’s time to Bell should move EDLC down in the lineup because he’s not helping at #3 or #4 spot at all… The problem is Steer fell in a slump right now but maybe an order of Friedl, Steer, Fraley, Martini and trying Renfroe as 5th could get better results i don’t know, just try something different
With some background in statistics and probability, I am somewhat dumfounded by the POFF calculated by Fangraphs. Their “10,000 simulations machine” comes up with the following rounded percentages for the Cubs, Giants, DBacks, and Reds (74, 60, 44, 14). Baseball Ref and their 1,000 simulation machine with 90% confidence level (relative to what interval?) yields quite different numbers especially for the Giants and Reds (79, 46, 40, 29).
Now, the Reds are only 1 game back of the Giants and Dbacks (but 2 in the loss column). Baseball Ref basically give the Reds about 14 points from the Giants percentage (less emphasis on Pythagorean?) The reversion to the mean or 30 day change is hard to factor in as the Reds and Giants have lessened their playoff percentage by more than anyone except San Diego.
I wish these models were more transparent about the factors used. As it sits, I cannot comprehend the Fangraphs model only giving the Reds a 14% chance. My “0 simulation model” which could be made a lot more transparent but not statistically sound would settle on a 25% chance for the Reds but also cite the risk of a slightly more likely scenario where the team fails to win 80 games and David Bell still doesn’t have any concerns. The Reds have lost their last series to every team on this list (and two against Milwaukee). Even with a split of the last two games here, they are still in decent contention with at least the West Coast teams. Hard to believe a 83 win season (13-12 going in) could make the playoffs but I wouldn’t bet against it.
@DD, but would you bet on them going 13-12? I wouldn’t.
No, I wouldn’t bet on it for the Reds but that is due to factors such as the manager and past history of slow finishes which is probably not reflected in any of the models.
Love it or hate it, the MLB playoff situation is now much more like the NHL (and I’d presume NBA, although I don’t follow it). In this last month the “playoff bar” is going to move up and down with the teams above and below it changing frequently.
The Reds are the first team below the NL bar and just 1 game arrears of being above the bar where there is a two way tie for the final spot between the Giants and DBacks.
Looking back over their shoulder, the Reds lead the Marlins by just one game with the Padres another 6.5 games behind.
Thus, realistically, there are 4 teams playing for the final spot plus the possibility that the Cubs whom lead the final spot by 2 games could fall back into the scrum making it 5 teams for 2 spots.
However, the Reds path and task are relatively simple to visualize. Barring a miracle run by the Padres, the Reds will be in the playoffs if they 1) Stay ahead of the Marlins 2) Pass the Giants and 3) Tie or pass DBacks.
To accomplish all three requirements, the Reds must play 2 games better than the Giants, 1 game better than the DBacks, and even with the Marlins the rest of the way. It doesn’t matter where or how these numbers fall into place. If they do, the Reds will be in.
Justin Dunn is done for the year, such as it was. Shoulder surgery. Who didn’t see that coming? And why did it take so long to get there?
They need to just cut their losses and let him go.
Just speculation here but probably because his better chance of ever pitching in MLB again was if he could successfully rehab without the surgery. Notice that Bell said there was no projected timeline for his return. I think that says it all without saying it directly.
Fraley with his 3 hits as the DH last night is huge. 1 his bat has been missed, 2 he’s going to be the DH for the rest of the season.
We really need a DH that’s a DH. Not everyone can hit without playing the field. This month long experiment should give us an indicator if Fraley could be our guy.
If Fraley is the DH the OF situation for 24 opens up a bit, and it will be easier to promote guys like Dunn, Hurtubise, or Hinds into the mix.
I have no problem with additional promotions but personally, I think we need more of a mix of youth and solid hitting vets. I compare ourselves to the Cubs rebuild, and while I won’t concede it is better, I like the presence of Swanson, Bellinger, and Happ in the middle of the lineup. Doesn’t make me right but just my preference for a model. And no I don’t put India, Stephenson, and Fraley in the same category of these guys. None of 3 Cubiies are huge money guys either. I think they all are like $15-20M guys. Might offer a little more leadership and protection against prolonged offensive downturns. Not saying they are better. Just like the model better than 5-6 rookies.
It is a better model, and I’d like to see them spend money on FA’s.
Last offseason I wanted them to get Bell, Benintendi, a back up C, a legit Starter for the rotation, and Jansen to help Diaz at the back end of the pen.
All we got was the back up C, and our team is fizzling out. Who’d have guessed it?
I do think they will spend money this offseason, but it’s probably not going to be as much as we want, and it will probably be targeted on pitching.
Swanson signed a 7 year 177 mil deal and will earn 26 mil next year.Bellinger has a mutual option for 12 mil next year with a 5.5 mil buyout and you know where that may end up or better yet Boras knows where that may end up.Happ played on a one year deal worth 11 mll.Who knows what happens this year but if all return next year then Cubs may have 60 mil or more in 3 players.Now maybe they can pay that and maybe they will.
Jake Fraley career as a DH, 127 PA, .296/.394/.519, .912 OPS
Good info. Anything on handedness? It looks to me like he ought to get some more looks vs LH pitching, at least not be an automatic sub out unless the LH pitcher has vicious splits vs all LH hitters.
That cool, It also got me looking at the guys.
Stephenson is batting .200 over 259 AB’s as a C in 23, as a DH/1B/PH he’s batting .309 over 168 AB’s. The vast majority of those AB’s 145 were as a DH.
Votto was terrible as a DH, CES’s time is too short to read anything into, except his numbers are fairly similar playing 1B as DH, with a slight edge to the DH.
Elly and ECS can learn a lot from Martini how to hit slider. The tying Hr was off a slider and Martini went down low to get it. Young players swing high and miss slider because it slides down. I watched his HR over and over again and it’s just a beautiful swing.
And Martini stroked the pitch versus unloading on it from the heels.
I’ve seen Marte’s game-winner a few times and still can’t believe they threw him that pitch with an 0-0 count, the winning run at third, and two empty bases. They have to know he really wants to swing, and he’s the same guy who earlier struck out on a pitch that was so far low and outside the catcher could barely get a glove on it. Don’t you want to try to get him to chase a few pitches in that situation? It’s refreshing to see other teams do incredibly stupid things once in a while.
Check out Gameday. The Marte game winner pitch was virtually the same locale as the pitch Fairchild caught heck for chasing in game 1 when he popped out with RISP.
Gameday says the Fairchild pitch was a 90.5mph (hanging) sinker and the Marte pitch was an 86.6 mph (hanging) slider.
The difference at least in these 2 PAs? One guy had the timing and strength to drive the pitch back up the middle. The other guy missed it just enough to pop it up instead. Games and careers are defined by such things.
Very good analysis. Jim, would the swing itself have anything to do with it? What I’m getting at it looked like Marte was going with the pitch. I didn’t go back and look at Fairchild but basically was he pulling off the ball? At this point, Eli doesn’t do anything but pull off the ball every swing looks like he’s shooting for the fences. It be nice at least with two strikes he would just focus on hitting the ball where it’s pitched and let the chips fall where they may. I do think he’ll eventually figure it out but I’m hoping someone is working with him on it. Otherwise, theoretically he could turn into another Aristides Aquino.
The pitch to Fairchild registered as a sinker. Sinkers often feature arm side run in addition to the downward movement, The pitcher was LH which would make arm side run be away from a RH hitter.
My semi-educated guess would be he hit the ball further toward the end of the bat than he would have wanted to and probably too low on the ball also and it popped straight up with a slight angle to the 1B side.
Marte’s hit was actually pulled to the 3B side of the pitcher from where it was struck by the bat.
As I said above, games and careers are decided by tenths of inches and thousandths of seconds when the ball and bat meet.
I have a feeling the glow of the very positive reviews given Elly when he came up in June by almost everyone has kept Red’s management (especially D. Bell and the Hitting Coach) from talking to him about the numerous strikeouts in the last month or so. This must be dealt with because this young man is an incredible talent.
And pitchers, even excellent pitchers, don’t always throw the pitch precisely where they intended.
Also, it may have been that he didn’t have his best control and threw a get me over pitch to get ahead. Thankfully, Marte jumped all over it. I guess they call that an ambush!
The catcher gave him a target that was in the low/outside portion of the strike zone. He then dropped his glove to the ground as the pitch was being delivered, but I assume the intended target was the spot where he’d opened his glove and not the dirt. I think the pitch might have been a couple inches higher than it was supposed to be, and maybe it didn’t “slide” as much as it was supposed to, but it was quite close to where the catcher had just flashed a target. I absolutely believe the pitch was supposed to be either a strike or just barely off the plate. If it was supposed to be a foot off the plate and a few inches low, which is where it should have been, he probably shouldn’t be pitching in the majors.
After Marte, the Reds had Renfroe and Bader due up, and no lefties remaining on the bench, so they really shouldn’t have been too worried about Marte walking if he suddenly became selective. They should absolutely positively not started him off with anything close to the strike zone, that’s for sure. It was a terrible pitch, and I think it was a poor decision more than a physical error.
It is possible, after all, that Reds pitchers are not the only ones in major league baseball who sometimes make terrible decisions.
Exactly. Those angles and timing and location work both ways.
I’m not faulting your insights into pitching strategy, J, but I think you’d be very hard-pressed to find any pitcher, ever, who didn’t miss his spot from time to time. I don’t know that that was what happened in this case.
I was able to tune in for the very end. I dropped the audio in the first game after we dug a hole “too deep”. I watched just a little bit during dinner of the second game. That 9th inning was a treat. The kind of mix we needed showing power, speed, and good plate discipline. Marte getting the walk-off feather in his cap was icing on the cake.
Focus on tonight and let’s let some more air out of the Stupid Cubs!!
I see the line up. Man, Bell needs to get Elly out of the 4th spot for a change. TJ, Steer, Fraley, Martini, CES, then Elly for a couple games, just see how it goes, for the fun of it if anything.
Martini and Renfro in…benson out against the righty.
I suppose Benson and martini sharing 4th OF spot against righties.
Fraley with the toe is the DH against righties.
Glad we improved the OF against lefties with Senzel and Hopkins now outta the mix but an everyday mostly swap out is Bell’s fantasy.
Righty pitcher its friedl Benson,martini,Renfro rotation
Lefty pitcher its Renfro/Bader/Fairchild.
We need McLain and India back for lineup sanity. This roster is now the everyday 2. Steer and Elly. Cant have continuity or rhythm or an offensive identity rotating pieces inning to inning and game to game based on handedness.
With EDLC fitted with at least his 2nd, maybe 3rd, recent golden sombrero and looking at his stats over the last 30 games, seeing Bell continue to hit him 3rd or 4th remains super weird, even for Bell.
I realize McLain, Votto and India are all out, but none of them are really #4 options.
EDLC simply isn’t making contact enough for this to make any sense.
I realize “Bell knows things” so maybe he knows why a guy with a sub .300 OB and striking out 40% of the time is the man for cleanup.
I know Bell has his quirky, mysterious or bizarre logics for decisions, or sometimes no logic at all.
Anyone willing to venture a possible, not even plausible, rationale?
I’ve heard him say many times that he believes moving guys around the lineup is disorienting to the players. To be quite frank I believe this is projection.
Managers do not make a lot of difference in the larger scheme of things but David Bell is obviously on the extreme end of this. If they gave a WAR rating for managers, I would give him a -6.0. A manager like Terry Francona I’d give a 5.0 that is an 11 game difference.
Yeah, the “managers don’t make much difference” argument is based on the assumption that managers won’t make too many irrational decisions, and their few irrational decisions won’t be particularly harmful, so the net effect is negligible because all managers will end up doing basically the same things over the course of a season. Bell seems like he’s really pushing the limits of this theory.
What’s extra weird about Bell claiming it’s harmful to move guys around in the lineup is that he’s seen lots of guys go into terrible slumps despite remaining in basically the same spot all year, and the one guy he’s actually been willing to move all over the lineup is Steer, whose stats are pretty consistent no matter where he hits.
Terry Francona has had a season where his team lost 97 games and another when they lost 94.
@gmr…I think Sparky lost 100 at some point.
@GMR excellent so in my formula, Francona saved his team 5 additional losses so 97 becomes 102 and 94 becomes 99 if we compare with a Wins Above Replacement counterpart who is rated 0.0. ?
Honestly, my sense of Bell’s “process” is that he gets an idea into his head (which may simply be based on a hunch rather than data or logic), and from that point forward he will rarely, if ever, question that decision until it consistently hasn’t worked for a long long LONG time. I think his brain has a weird glitch. He knows he’ll never have to justify it to anyone because the local media won’t press him on things that make no sense, so he doesn’t ever have to rethink it if he doesn’t feel like it, and he doesn’t feel like it.