The Cincinnati Reds bullpen blew a lead in the 8th inning as Arizona’s star rookie Corbin Carroll hit a go-ahead 2-run home run off of Alex Young to put the Diamondbacks ahead for good as they held on for a 3-2 win in the first game of the 4-game series.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (67-62) |
2 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks (67-61) |
3 | 10 | 0 |
| W: Castro (6-6) L: Young (4-2) SV: Sewald (28) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Brandon Williamson matched Merrill Kelly inning for inning early on as the two pitchers kept the opposing offenses off of the board. But in the bottom of the 5th inning Arizona put pressure on the Reds lefty with two singles to put runners on the corner with one out. Ketel Marte hit a hard grounder to third and Noelvi Marte came up firing to the plate where Tyler Stephenson tagged out Corbin Carroll to keep the game scoreless. A line out would end the inning.
The next inning saw the Diamondbacks get a leadoff single from Tommy Pham and a 2-out walk from Evan Longoria to threaten one again. After Stephenson made a mound visit to talk with Williamson he came back to pick up a strikeout to end the threat. That would end the day for the lefty as he tossed six shutout innings.
Buck Farmer took over for Cincinnati in the 7th and things didn’t go his way. He walked the leadoff batter, then was hit by a comebacker that went for a single. Ketel Marte then singled into right field to load the bases. Jace Peterson then hit a ball to the wall in right field to bring a run in, but a baserunning mistake led to Gabriel Moreno being thrown out at home and what should have easily been a multi-run double turn into a single that led to an out and just one run. Farmer would get back-to-back flyouts to end the inning and keep it a 1-run ballgame.
Merrill Kelly had thrown seven shutout innings of 1-hit baseball. He returned to the mound for the 8th, but while warming up he appeared to injure himself and exited the game. Kyle Nelson took over after he got time to warm up. Cincinnati sent Nick Senzel to the plate to face the lefty reliever. The move paid off in a big way as Senzel unloaded on a solo home run into the left field corner to tie the game up. Noelvi Marte would pick up a walk with one out and then he would steal second base with two outs to put himself in scoring position for Tyler Stephenson. The steal proved to be huge as Stephenson then lined a single into center and Marte scored easily to give the Reds a 2-1 lead.
Alex Young took over for the Reds to start the bottom of the 8th. He proceeded to walk the first batter of the inning on five pitches. After getting Evan Longoria to fly out, Young faced off against fellow lefty Corbin Carroll and it was the Diamondbacks rookie who won that matchup with a go-ahead 2-run home run.
Trailing by a run to start the 9th inning, the Reds had the middle of their order due up. Elly De La Cruz battled for 10 pitches against Paul Sewald but was rung up looking on a pitch that was clearly outside of the strikezone for the first out of the inning. Spencer Steer followed with a walk, but Nick Senzel would fly out and Christian Encarnacion-Strand struck out to end the game.
Key Moment of the Game
Corbin Carroll’s 2-run home run in the bottom of the 8th inning.
Notes worth noting
The loss by the Reds dropped them out of the third wild card spot and it moved Arizona into that spot.
Brandon Williamson put together the best start of his career on the night, tossing six shutout innings. His ERA in his last 10 starts is 3.00.
The Reds only had three hits in the game and they struck out 16 times.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday August 25th, 9:40pm ET
Hunter Greene (2-5, 4.72 ERA) vs Brandon Pfaadt (0-6, 6.13 ERA)
I Call CES the enigma. followed him a lot this year in Louisville. there were days he looked great and days he looked totally lost. of all the rookies he worries me the most.
CES knows better than that. He’s probably not sleeping very much tonight. Williamson continues to get better and better. Amazing and only one BB.
Simply cannot walk the lead off hitter; especially after you just clawed back into it.
Simply cannot enable their key hitter to have the moment.
Glad at least to see Nick come through – let’s see if he capitalizes on further opportunities; he’s risen to the occasion before but consistency has to be there.
I’ve got pretty good seats for FRI and SAT; looking forward to seeing these guys up close for the first time this year.
Reds bullpen…maybe tired, but then again always has been a weakness of a Reds bullpen to walk too many hitters, A Young was behind in the count on hitters tonight. Had to come in with a strike, and curveball to Corbin Carroll, caught to much of the plate, and ended up being a homerun. De La Cruz got hosed, clearly ball outside. League needs to add called strike 3 as reviewable. Managers should get 3 reviews each game for called strike 3. That will help hold umpires accountable, and you will clearly see how many called strike 3’s are reversed to a ball. Also, old saying again for the millionth time….you have strike 2 on you, any pitch that is CLOSE at all, you have to swing! CES HAS to swing at that strike 3 pitch, it was a fastball..pretty much down the middle. What was his thinking?? Also, Senzel hits left handers okay, cannot hit right handed pitchers all that well. Note to Reds scouting dept. Before drafting players in the first round, especially at #2, make sure they are constant on hitting both right handed pitchers and left handed pitchers equal….balance.
Agree Jeff, but the old rule still applies. With 2 strikes on you, swing if it is close.
That was a ball to Elly but you have to swing at that.
CES needs to sit a game or two.
Our bullpen walks to many hitters especially the lead off hitter.
control issues, tired or afraid to throw strikes?
Wrong. That pitch was unhittable. Down low and outside, what in the world was EDLC going to do with that. It’s a clear ball, and you have to expect the umpire to call balls and strikes with some degree of professionalism. Can’t wait for the ball/strike challenge to arrive. It would be a game changer for the rookies on the Reds who have gotten used to using it this season in AAA.
Big NO to reviewing called 3rd strikes. We already have too many interminable reviews. Either go to some sort of robotic/AI strike zone or leave as is.
As for Strand, he looks desperate to prove himself. Whiffing at every sweeping curve ball. Last night he was awful. But then the Reds hitter as a team were awful. I give Kelly credit. His change up was very good and the Reds couldn’t lay off.
Just don’t think this team is goi g to make the playoffs. They are too young and still learning. I hope I’m wrong. Love to see it. Their SP has certainly come around and if Hunter recaptures his magic from before his injury, they will be very tough.
Ans why does every relievers who comes in the game get behind 2-0 to the first batter? Is that some sort of requirement? A secret agreement with the MLB front office?
It’s driving me nuts. Get ahead of batters. I’ve heard that since I was 6 years old. Seems to work out well when it’s done.
I felt like you did too, until I went to a AAA game a few weeks back. The ball/strike review is so good. I was shocked at how well it works and how fast it works. It’s a no brainer in my book. It gives more credibility to the game as well.
I wish, just once, we could actually find out exactly what’s going through a player’s head when he does something like check his swing to foul off a 3-1 fastball (when the proper approach is to either take a big swing or take the pitch; absolutely no check swings in that situation) and then take strike three down the middle (when the proper approach is to shorten your swing a bit, swing at anything close, and at least try to make some contact). Does he know those things? Does he not care? Does he forget because the situation is too stressful? WHAT is happening in that situation?
Spoken like someone who has never stood in the box against an elite level pitcher. You can tell yourself those things all you want. But making those decisions when it takes a pitch less than .45 seconds to reach the plate is a different story.
Agree 1000%Luke some rln would have you believe playing mlb is a simple sport
Maybe I’m mistaken, but it seems to me that I’ve watched many many many baseball players over the years who would almost never take strike three in that situation. Virtually zero times. (Bear in mind that I’m over 35.)
I also believe I’ve heard many many former players saying things like “guys who play today aren’t ashamed of striking out the way we used to be. It’s nothing to them.”
I also seem to remember major league players being pretty good at hitting sacrifice flies, bunting, moving runners from second to third, etc. (Again, I’m over 35, so I remember the olden days.)
Again, maybe I’m just misremembering my entire life’s experience, but I think I’m not. I think players today don’t approach hitting the way they used to, and it has nothing to do with my imagination or the game suddenly being difficult.
We’re watching a team with double-digit strikeouts almost every day, a leadoff hitter who was routinely striking out twice a day, a guy watching strike three down the middle on a 3-2 count to end a game, and I’m supposed to respond by saying “well, baseball is a hard game.”
Sure.
J, I think it’s a lot different today. Yesterday’s ballplayers also would have k’d a lot, but they didn’t because rarely did they see a fastball harder than 95mph. The game is ridiculously hard today vs years past.
Absolutely. I remember facing a guy that threw 85. I could barely see it, let alone decide to swing.
It’s one thing to expect a professional will do better. It’s another to question if they care because they perform poorly attempting to do one of the hardest things in sports (hit a pitched baseball).
Do you think most players today care whether they know how to bunt or advance a runner from second to third by hitting the ball to the right side? If you’ve been paying any attention, you should know most of them don’t care at all. So, believe it or not, it’s possible for major league players to not care about being good at things that would help their teams win more games. Not knowing how to avoid costly strikeouts is just part of the same big picture. For the most part, they don’t care about strikeouts.
It would make me feel a little better if once in a while I heard a player or manager saying something to the effect that their approach needs to be better. Instead, all I ever hear is that everything is fine, things will improve, and we all just need to trust everyone’s process. And then many of them wind up playing in Japan or AAA or for a different team because this one is tired of them.
Again J, I don’t think you grasp the difference in the game. I would love to watch you stand in the box and try and bunt a 95MPH+ fastball, and then follow with a 82mph slider. Heck today’s fastballs are not only faster but they have way more movement as well. I used to laugh when people implied the answer to the shift was to lay down a bunt or hit the ball opposite way. Yeah, like that was somehow easy to do. Tony Gwynn was the only player in my lifetime that could do that consistently. Most of these guys now days are just trying to hit the ball, and swinging hard gives them a better chance of success for when they do make contact. It’s not accident that even the smaller players are striking out 25 to 30% of the time; the game is HARD.
Agree with @J. Even though it has been 40 odd years since my last baseball season as a 15 year old, I still remember those two rules cited. We would get some guff from the coach for noncompliance because it is a mistake. Examine the 4 SO in 4 AB for CES and I’m sure there will be many other “mistakes.” But, no worries, David Bell has a process and they are playing hard.
The Reds have gotten a lot of good breaks this trip on “timely” injuries to the opposing pitchers and the worst base running play since ??? from the DBacks. Like the Angels before them, they didn’t look too impressive but found a way to win. Still, the record thus far on the coast is at least decent and 16 Ks is not as bad as 18. I’ll probably won’t stay up for tonight’s game. Hope Greene can right the ship but his ball had practically no movement or location last outing. He seemed physically ready but certainly not game ready.
Comparing how quick a major league player has to make up his mind to swing or not swing to palying little league or high-school baseball is laughable
CES gets the Golden Sombrero, four strikeouts in a game.
It happens, but you can’t say it’s good. Maybe he is just over-thinking his AB’s, and has become hesitant to trust his own baseball “instincts”.
It is very frustrating to watch, but guys can lose their confidence in their own hitting ability by being confused about what they are seeing from pitchers. The pitching in the Majors is a lot better than what these guys have seen in the minors.
Control, off – speed pitches, movement, etc. Everything is better. And CES is probably losing sleep over all this, too. The guy has always hit, at every level so far.
Any chance the pen was spent from LA? Neither Farmer nor Young did well tonight, that’s probaby why. On the other hand, two runs on three hits and 16 K’s… Once again, we struggled against a high quality starter. I can’t recall the last time we got to/roughed up an ace. These guys are simply too young and inexperienced at the plate to pull it off. Stephenson and Senzel, two guys with more experience, back this claim. I’m not surprised. Their next three pitchers should be easier targets.
Arizona also struggled against a high quality starter.
True, Doc. We’ve struggled all season is my point. Again – the inexperience of youth.
Just heard the Arizona TV’s call of Elly’s “strikeout.” Not sure who I was listening to (is Bob Brenly still around?), but he said “Oh boy. We’ll take it. That’s one of those sweepers that was never in the strike zone.”
Yup.
So it sounds as though EDLC was right in taking ball 4, but it’s hard to beat the umpires. Mike Maddox is in the HOF because players couldn’t hit balls 6” off the plate that were regularly called strikes, at least for him.
You mean Greg Maddux and yes he got the borderline calls a lot but he was a HOF for much more than that. LOL.
Pretty simple game. Relievers cannot walk people, especially to open an inning. Reds did it twice. Both guys scored.
And too many strikeouts. Work needed on pitch recognition, if that can be done in the Bigs for this, overall, young team.
Why don’t you do a season long analysis of how many walks have been issued by relievers and how many of them scored. Then you could give us a continuing count after each game with data to support your position. Instead, when the Reds walk eight as they did a few nights ago and none of them score there is no mention of how walks haunt, but last night when two are walked and both score it’s the worst thing in baseball. Just combining those two games, one could say that a walk scores less 20% of the time or less. Anecdotal cherry picked evidence is never sufficient to support a position.
Per the 2022 MLB Run Expectancy table/matrix for 2022 (linked below), the RE for an inning when the 1st batter of an inning stepped to the plate was 0.476. If the first batter reached, the RE jumped to 0.865. Even with 1 out or 2 outs and the bases empty, a batter reaching 1st base still nearly doubles or greater the RE for the inning.
Thus putting a man on 1st when the bases are empty on average leads to a worse outcome than keeping the man off the bases. In fact, any time a runner reaches base without an out being recorded, the RE increases.
Walks are totally under a pitcher’s control. If he throws strikes, he cannot walk a hitter. If he walks a hitter, the RE increases. Case closed.
Whenever it was the Reds relievers walked 8 guys, they beat the odds by not allowing any runs. Thursday, the odds came home to roost. Maybe Walks are like free throws in basketball. They don’t decide every game, only the close ones.
Here is the link to the 2022 MLB RE table. It reports the RE for the 24 men on base/outs situations from zero outs and no one base through 2 outs and bases loaded. The numbers are the actual MLB average runs scored in an inning from that men on base/ outs situation.
https://www.pitcherlist.com/adjusting-for-the-current-run-expectancy-matrix/
It’s called a Run Expectancy Matrix and been around for years and years. You should check it out.
Jim Walker beat me to it. Great stuff Jim, hope using the correct chart numbers to explain the situation at hand won’t be considered cherry picking as well. LOL
The thing is, I think that pitchers frequently intend to get hitters out with pitches that are not strikes. Maddox certainly did, and Brantley alludes to this frequently when he praises a slider in the dirt as a good pitch. Major league hitters hit strikes pretty well, so the strategy makes sense, but is thwarted when the batter doesn’t swing at the slider in the dirt. I think our young guys are in the process of adjusting to sophisticated pitching–sequencing, speed variation and well-executed breaking stuff. It looks really hard, hitting a baseball pitched by a MLB pitcher, especially when the pitcher can consistently throw pitches that look like strikes until they get to the plate. After all, veterans–even great veterans–fail far more often than they succeed.
Google says, ”
In fact, the leadoff walk scores between 22 and 34 percent of the time, on average, per MLB season.”
🙂
Don’t confuse them with Facts, Jim! The young crowd thinks baseball is a hard game to learn today. That’s why they asked you to figure it out for them. And Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton fastballs were 65 mph, LOL!. Plus, don’t try to protect the plate with 2 strikes. Rose would foul off great pitches with 2 strikes until he got one he liked.
This game was a tough one but you can’t ever expect to win when the offense only produces 3 hits. Seems like there have a been a lot of games like this lately (other than those two games vs. the Angels).
Brandon Williamson is a huge positive. He is pitching with a lot of confidence and it’s fun to watch. Really hoping he’s a part of the rotation for years to come.
Doug you might consider changing the title of this one. Yes, the bullpen blew the lead, but the story is 3 hits and 16 Ks.
yep
The Reds lterally had no bullpen last night although almost get a so precious win. The series is set to be splitted even the Reds could take the remaining 3 games as long as the offense improves and the starters could go long at the most.
Watched 5 innings. Ump is the laziest I’ve ever seen. Bats were slow but maybe that was expected. Marte leadoff double and Benson gets first 2 pitches 90& 91 right down the middle? Kelly’s put away was the change low , but lots of pitches middle of the plate that they did nothing with. Really need 2 there
They were sitting on the change then still couldn’t hit it when it finally came.
With the depth on that changeup they would have needed to sneak up in the batters box a couple of inches. If they were sitting on it, they still swung over it.
His for show heater wasn’t hard enough that moving up in the batters box would have hurt them.
The young also haven’t figured out how to use a hitters count with better discretion and avoid swing at a pitchers pitch.
Alex Young is not a reliable late inning solution
Not even close.
Almost like the team conceded a game to the snakes. Hitters were tired, clearly bullpen needed a night off. Would have been a good game to play all the bench guys. Dusty used to do that.
Shake that one off and go get them tonight. Hope Greene has a good game. The snakes pitcher is prone to big innings.
Great game, like a post-season macht. Williamson and Marte joining the rookies show. Unfortunately, the bullpen couldn’t make it this time, the workload is taking the toll on Farmer (58 G) and Young (57 G).
Number of games not necessarily as important as number of pitches…of course, need to include warm ups in counting pitches. Some of the relief is for a few pitches.
The guys looked flat in the 3.5 innings I watched. But they held the Snakes in check pretty well … until they didn’t.
Problem 1 – CB Buckner as HP Chumpire is terrible. That causes guys to press more.
Problem 2 – Bullpen was already gassed and Young has been so variable. Walk haunted again.
So I’m not at all surprised to find out we didn’t overcome the Snakes. On the other hand, 4-game series are nearly impossible to sweep (the DC trip not withstanding). Back at it tonight and hopefully more settled.
Stop walking the leadoff batters. What am I missing? The most important pitch in the game is Strike One, and our bullpen doesn’t get this. Make the other team beat you by hitting the ball.
And Bucknor’s flourish ringing up EDLC on a pitch that never was in the strike zone just proves how biased many umpires are.
Can’t be long before Mancini and Antone are brought up
Gee, we could use a man like (fill in the blank) again! Sorry that Bell has to overuse the relievers because he must realize that the guys today either don’t have the discipline, stamina, pitching skills, etc. to do what the player of 50 years ago did (and if they had the potential they probably wouldn’t be allowed to show it).
Getting back to “The Man”, he didn’t strike out that many, walked plenty fewer and gave up about one HR every 15 innings while averaging 68 appearances and 112 innings over 8 years. You should know who this is although Clay Carroll would be a good but incorrect guess as his record was just as impressive with that added “long man” role.
Williamson was awesome but a tip of the cap to Kelly. My goodness, one of the best pitching match-ups I’ve seen in a long time. Kelly put on a show.
Back to obvious: you simply can NOT walk the first batter you face. This loss is all on Young. Fell behind three hitters in a row. A recipe for disaster. Drives me nuts!
Kelly was good but more likely the Reds bats just stunk last night.
The way Kelly was pitching Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Shohei Ohtani would’ve all gone 1,2,3. The changeup was UNREAL.
The run Farmer gave up was a first batter walk, too. Losses are rarely one player’s fault. The hitters need to learn to be satisfied with putting the ball in play against a finesse pitcher, too.
Brutal
The pitching matchups look very favorable for the Reds the next three games. The guys played their hearts out tonight with a dead-arm bullpen and against a stud starting pitcher. This team looks like they intend to stay in the race. The best part is the young guys are picking up valuable high-pressure experience that you can only get in a pennant race.
I agree with you Pete.
They need to fix the box score. Alex Young should not get the loss. The loss should go to Nick Krall. Zero help at the Deadline for a contending team. David Robertson, Reynaldo Lopez, Kendall Graveman, Pierce Johnson could have helped, but went to other more serious teams. Trevor May likely too.
I find it kind of ironic that the same man to pin the loss on, is the exact same man that brought all this talent in. Wonders never cease. Trust the plan, it has brought us this far.
Both are possible you know. Credit for the young talent and blame for not making a move to encourage the young talent to make the playoffs
Bring up Mancini and Barrero. Move Senzel and Hopkins back down…or Martini or Siani if you want. Simple…
In Hopkins only start he got 2 hits, why wouldn’t the plan be to see what he can do if they actually played him? A strictly pinch hitting role for a rookie callup is not a good plan for success. I’m not a Senzel fan, but that HR last night was huge, weird timing to be calling for his demotion.
It’s not weird timing because we know who Senzel is based on the last 5 years of data. One game and HR changes absolutely nothing.
Heard on the radio that the Reds may have not gotten in until 3am. If that’s true the boys may have been tired.
That’s what I thought. Just plain tired.
Everyone keeps saying bring this guy or bring some other guy up. Maybe we should bring up the AAA hitting coach (Palaez). The guys seem to come from AAA hitting or go back and make adjustments and start hitting.
I’m convinced part of it is the Automatic Ball/ Strike system they are using in AAA. The hitters learn their strike zones. The pitchers lose a huge amount of the advantage of uncertainty about what will or won’t be a called strike when the batters let close pitches go by which cuts down on the chasing. And even though the ump is still calling half the games, the Damocles sword of challenges over their heads gets them dialed in to calling as close as they can to the automatic system.
I posted something very similar the other day Jim. There are way too many at bats that are critically changed because a ball is called a strike in the majors. ellys at bat last night is one that could even be argued may have changed the outcome of the game. Having him on as the leadoff with no outs is a big advantage.
With the hitting coach bring up AAA pitchers to staff our opponents.
3 hits? 16 SOs? To quote Paul Simon: “You know the nearer your destination
The more you’re slip slidin’ away”.
+10000 on Slip Slidin’ Away.
Also “One step ahead of the shoeshine and two steps away from the county line just tryin’ to keep my customers satisfied,”, describes Krall caught between his bosses and trying to actually win to keep the public on his side.
+10000
+1,000 for the use of Paul Simon!
Well, how about
“Sail on silver girl.
Sail on by
Your time has come to shine”
to describe Senzel’s experience last night 😉
Williamson is trending to be a sub 4 ERA guy. That’s nuts! I was writing the guy off early 2023, then he gets called up to the Reds and just keeps improving at the highest level.
Abbott is showing to be at least a 2, with 1 upside. It will be fun if we get to have all 5 The Big 3, and the New 2, starting for significant portions of 24.
I might be out on a limb, but I am looking forward to seeing how Richardson comes into spring training in 2024. He has outstanding stuff, finally got a taste of the bigs, and this will be the first time he has had an off-season to work on his craft rather than trying to get healthy. He could make big steps forward and be an impact next year.
Im with you LP. Im excited to see what Conner Phillips and Richardson can do in 2024. Keep the young pitching train rolling.
Richardson has been impressive this year, it’s clear he’s a MLB quality guy. Hopefully Richardson, and Phillips put some pressure on the 5 presumptive starters this spring. I wouldn’t count out the IL guys either, we got 2 guys with some quality MLB experience that could factor into 24.
Jim Bowden had his Rookie NL standings earlier in the week broken down into pitchers and position players. Abbott was his #1 rookie pitcher in the NL over Senga, Perez, and Miller with Williamson at #5. Amazing the development of (2) very good rookie pitchers with Reds 2 of the top 5 rookie pitchers in the league.
Would love to see his top 5 position player rookies. McLain, Benson, and Steer all in top 5 based on wRC+ according to Fangraphs.
As many as 5 Reds rookies in top 10 overall I’d bet.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=nl&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=2&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&pos=all&team=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&qual=230
@ ATH
He had Carroll #1, McLain #2 Elly #5 and Steer #8
In other words 5/15 best rookies in the NL in 2023 play for the Reds. Benson should crack that list by seasons end if he gets another 200 at bats and continues to put up similar numbers.
Benson not a rookie, right?
@wk, on second look, Benson had 66 days in MLB last year, limit is 45, so looks like he is not a rookie despite him showing on Fangraphs rookie stats list.
It would be nice, but I’ve almost given up entirely on the idea that the Reds’ preseason projected starters will all be healthy for any period of time. If four of them are available to begin the season and three of them pitch most of the season, that would be a pleasant surprise. The key, I’m afraid, is having a #6 and #7 guy who isn’t Weaver-ish.
I don’t think we will have a Weaver type as the #7 guy. AA, HG, NL, GA, BW as the 1 – 5, with Richardson, Philips, Stoudt, Guttierez, and Dunn to be the 6 – 10. AA is likely to have Lowder, Aguiar, Petty, and Acuna. I’m guessing the Weaver types that might come in will be on a minor league deal, but won’t be used unless they impress in AAA 1st.
I think they took baby steps this year by signing a bad pitcher to a $2 million deal instead of trading for a bad pitcher who was owed $10 million. Hopefully next year they take it to the next level and just not offer any major league contracts to bad pitchers.
Even though I’m optimistic about next year’s pitching, I won’t mind if they find a way to add a proven (but NOT bad) starter or two. If they wind up with more than five healthy starters, someone can shift to the bullpen, which is obviously an area where the team needs some help. But the least of my concerns will be winding up with too many healthy dependable starters. I feel like this team could have 10 potential starters heading into training camp and still wind up having to scramble to find a reasonable fifth starter when the season begins.
Two bright take aways:
Williamson continues to impress, and
Senzel enhances his trade value a wee bit.
Strasburg retiring. Another exhibit A for why the Reds shouldn’t mortgage anything for expensive pitchers. Washington has gotten 31 innings for a 7 year $245MM deal. That would set the Reds back at least 7 years.
Senzel is making 1.95M with an arbitration raise due next year. He is definitely a non-tender with basically zero trade value. Any interested team will wait for him to be non tendered and sign him for a lesser ML contract than he was due, if he even gets a ML guarantee at all.
Meanwhile the starter we just released without even trying him in relief threw two innings of shutout, five strikeout baseball for Seattle Wednesday. We could have used those two innings last night.
Which current bullpen guy are sending away to make room for Weaver? And who are you booting off the 40 man roster?
I would have like to see the Dream Weaver given a BP shot.
Reds were juggling the 40 and 26 rosters.
Weaver flashed some good pitch sequences, so you know he’s capable, but made next to zero progress over the season.
Comp his season w that of Williamson and hopefully Richardson, though.
Maybe starting wasn’t the right role||
Maybe pitching was not the right role.
When they were committed to keeping him on the roster, I would certainly have preferred to see him in the bullpen rather than running him out to start every five days. But at this point it would make no sense to give him a role on this roster. He would be replacing someone with a lower ERA, with absolutely no reason to assume he’s suddenly going to be better than that guy. He was a relief pitcher last year and his ERA was almost identical to what it was as a starter this year. He’s pitched two good innings before in his career, and he’ll probably do it again. He did it for the Reds a few times. It doesn’t mean he’s actually good.
Cody.. Reed (?) came to mind a few times watching Weaver pitch.
He’d string an impressive sequence together and the you had no idea where the ball was going.
He’d give up a hit or two and come unglued.
Seemed to lack that “mental toughness”, whatever that is.
The Reds couldn’t seem to help Reed any more than they could Weaver.
Reed did better in Florida but had some oddball injuries.
Plenty of time for Weaver to straighten himself out in his career if he puts his head to it and has the right coaching / managing.
Or he could lumber along.
They needed the roster room, besides.
I’m not missing him.
He was Krall’s big winter move along with Myers.
Neither panned out.
Along with Pham and Minor casts a little shade on the Bull’s dealing.
I put the asset selling for prospects in a different column with high marks for the Bull.
Acquisitions have been far more mixed.
Now Senzel is back.
Sure is a lot of squabbling and bickering on the site today. Give it a rest gents? On to the next game?
As long as everyone stays civil about things and doesn’t get personal. a little bit of crankiness after a loss like Thursday night might not be a bad thing. Hopefully, the Reds manager, coaches, and players are feeling *at least* as cranky as some folks around here.
Jim – exactly right. I’m sure this is where some of us come to vent. It’s generally healthy, I think. Keeps us from venting in our normal lives.
I can’t say that I’ve seen much evidence that Bell & company care about the outcome of games. And the Castellinis certainly don’t – butts in the seats, cheap players, and generous inflow to their coffers.
I agree Jim. Let’s face it. A lot of the “squabbling and bickering” that goes on is what, according to Doug, “keeps the lights on”. 🙂
Yes, we are all Reds fans. Hoping for the best today and the future. GO REDS!
What’s wrong with debating Reds stuff on a Reds blog? For example: a couple people took exception regarding something I wrote, and we ”bickered” a bit, and it didn’t bother me at all. I doubt it bothered them either. Why does this sort of thing bother you? Everyone always has to agree and be pleasant after a horrible performance by this offense?
I like a bit of back, and forth, sometimes it helps me confirm my position, and other time alter it. There’s a lot of knowledgeable fans on this site with their own takes.
Yeah, no 2 fans are equal. Differing opinions, thoughts etc is what fandom is all about.
I actually enjoy everyone that post here excluding low blowing a fellow poster,i do my share of venting.
My wife isn’t much of a sports fan, and rarely understands my frustrations.
Exactly right JIm, J, and MBS. This is a place a lot of us come to debate/bicker/vent. I am sure most of our wives are very happy we are talking to each other on here rather than complaining to our wives.
Also, the crankiness is probably as much due to the loss as the west coast swing and late games causing a lack of sleep for us east coasters.
@LarkinPhillips, mostly true, but there’s still that hairy eyeball and the “what, baseball again?” statement that comes out during dinner from time to time.
I’ve really been impressed by our 2 lefty rookies that are gaining big league experience, and learning what it’ll take for endurance and conditioning for long MLB seasons. They’ll have a leg up on both Hunter & Nick in that specific regard that should not be overlooked.
I look for Williamson to get more accomplished in his usage with that changeup predominately against righthand batters even though he handles them pretty well now and going forward.
I look forward to seeing how the young guys improve by the latter portion of spring training 2024 as they are utilizing their complete arsenal by then.
Richardson was impressive once he settled down and likely tired abit on Wednesday.
We need a strike throwing power arm that can miss bats for an 8th inning guy in 2024.
And, a long reliever or possibly 2, but I doubt that Bell would relish utilizing them in that regard.
I think Richardson could be an option for either role. Currently he is being stretched out in 4 inning stints as a starter as recovery from arm injury. However, next year he will be 24 before spring training and yet to break 125 innings in a year and with the given current practice of innings caps, likely 2 more years to “stretch” him out. Instead, he could be the power arm for the 8th or the 2-3 inning long guy and be able to help next year from seasons start. The reds bullpen next year will need some young guys as the current set of primary relievers will all be 30+ with exception of closer Diaz.
I am not for him or Phillips becoming the power arm in the 8th. Personally, I like Duarte if he takes another step forward filling that role next year. But IF we HAD to make a starter a late inning power arm guy, I would use Phillips over Richardson. Phillips is more of a two pitch power guy where as Richardson is known to have 3-4 quality offerings that he just needs to master locating and should be able to do with more time to work on them. He is 24, but he missed a year due to covid and over a year for TJ surgery.
The Cardinals have worked guys in that way. It’s not a bad model based on their success. It also allows them to mature and build confidence and aren’t awestruck when they are moved in to a starters role.
Petty might be a candidate for that type usage but that wouldn’t materialize for a couple of years.
LP has mentioned Duarte for that.and I’d like to see more of him for evaluation.
The way I understand it the biggest reason that Phillips hasn’t been called up yet to at least fill in is because of the roster crunch and him not being on the 40 man roster. Lodolo is most likely not coming back. Why not give that roster spot that we were going to give Lodolo to Phillips? He can remain a starter in the long run but help as a reliever in a pennant race this year.
A year or so ago, I made a comment that Williamson would likely surpass Lodolo as a primary left handed starter, because Nick Lodolo seemed injury prone.
I was kind of roundly criticized (by Doug Gray, no less) as Williamson was still struggling in the minors and Nick Lodolo was establishing himself as a Major League starter.
This may yet come to pass. Nick Lodolo has this stress fracture in his leg, and is likely done for 2023. Williamson is really progressing, and you have to give Derick Johnson (or somebody !!!) on the coaching staff for bringing him along.
If Nick Lodolo (unlucky to be named Nick and play for the Reds) continues to have these cray-cray injuries, I could see Williamson surpassing him…NEXT YEAR (2024), if he also stays injury free.
I think Andrew Abbott is now suffering some arm fatigue. Looking at the velocity, etc on “gameday”, he appears to have lost a few MPH on his fastball (during his last start against the Angels on Tuesday).
We can’t spare a starter, but maybe he has enough innings on his arm now this year (Minors plus Majors), and should get a rest. I guess we will see how he does on Sunday against the D-backs. Maybe he bounces back and throws really well. We also have to realize that a pitcher doesn’t always have his best stuff when he takes every turn. I don’t know where the Reds would be this year without Abbott. He has been the best pitcher for the Reds this year….period.
Good call on Brandon, David.
Abbott’s going to be really good for us, and he has appeared tired since that 113 pitch outing(I endorsed that btw).
If we hadn’t been so strapped for starters missing 2 starts may have helped in that regard.
As a fellow lefty, I loved to watch Lodolo since we have this natural side-to-side kind of crooked arm motion that can be very effective in pitching. Of course this comes with some unusual body mechanics, off balance tendencies, and hard landings to name a few challenges for the lower legs.
Its been a very long time since I have heard the term “stress factor” (that lasts for several months) but that’s the name of the game in baseball sometimes so you put in the work while others get opportunity for replacements. After all, this is a competition.
(The engineer apologizes post haste for the awkward sentence construction.)
I like the idea of a power arm in the bullpen groomed to throw multiple innings. Lorenzen did that for a bit as did Antone. With starters only getting 15 or 16 outs, you need a good power arm who can come in a close game and get 5 or 6 outs+ to shorten the game. With Richardson injury history and lack of innings mileage, that might be a good role for him in 2024 to build him up and use him strategically.
Lorenzen excelled in that role for a time.
Richardson has that gas, and you make a good point of building up his workload in that type of role.
didn’t get a great look at Carrol’s Homer. but was that a ball that EDLC could have snagged? i still think he could be a great, great right fielder if given the chance. he could steal a lot of homers out there, and throw out a lot of base runners
Ball was 15-20 feet over Benson’s head.
So you’re saying 50-50 chance Elly gets to it?
To DataDumpster:
I specialize in poor sentence construction. Lol
I really enjoyed watching the healthy Lodolo pitch, and I’m looking forward to his healthy return. I hope that they shut him down until 2024 if that’s what is best for him. I understand him getting a 2nd opinion, and I’m assuming an independent one.
That’s a lot of torque, weight transfer that ends up on his legs, and on an inclined landing. And a tall guy to boot.
Hey, on the engineering side, after a successful career in the mining industry, I was a professional recruiter that predominantly specialized in recruiting mechanical engineers for manufacturing. I recruited the companies that I discreetly worked with. It was all confidential with both parties.
Same lineup as last night except Maile catching hitting 9th.
Why is Martini batting 5th? Bell just has to interject himself with his left – right match ups. Play the best players man.
Martini hitting 5th and doesn’t have a hit in the majors this year.
Benson hitting .277/.377/.867 batting 8th. smh
Makes no sense. Stack your best talent, bottom order the rest.
On another post of yours, I too would like to see C. Phillips get a look.
Bell has inside information that tells him this lineup will work tonight.
Bell, simply does not have a feel for the game. His inability to consistently make up a descent lineup tells you he is marginal to substandard manager. Therefore, we are behind before the first pitch is delivered. We certainly have nothing to look forward to in his three year extension boondoggle. He’s managerial record is under .500 ever since the disastrous decision.
He’s the #60 MLB Field Manager
Still holding that #60 for ya? 🙂
Out of 59. Lol
He’s dropped from 30 to 50 to 60 since the first of August. All out of 30 … 😛
Surprised he’s holding #60 so long for you. 😉
I’m trying to be a little more positive about Bell and the Reds. It’s hard at times, but I can’t control any of it anyway(as far as what Bell does or how the Reds perform)! I used to feel Managers are overrated in their effect on the game…it’s hard to tell. I think Dave Roberts in LA is not really that great, and Dusty Baker, I think it took incredible talent for them both to win it all. But no one’s winning championships with the A’s talent (Mark Kotsay I think is the manager) either.
As frustrating as the Reds can be at times, look at the Yankees, Mets, Padres, Cards, and what they are feeling as fans, and organizations. Big time money and big time disappointments. So we should be a little more appreciative of the Reds over .500 season I think. I’m as guilty as anyone being negative at times.
The thing about being a fan of one of those other teams is that those organizations won’t just shrug at disappointing seasons and say “oh well.” They’ll fire managers and coaches, go get better players, etc. The media will ask tough questions and expect answers. It makes disappointment a lot easier to tolerate when you have reason to believe next year won’t just be more of the same, because you know the team feels some pressure to win every year. We don’t feel that about the Reds. So, when there’s actually a chance to win something and the team collapses, I think it’s worse than being a fan of a team like the Cardinals or Mets and thinking “terrible year, but at least I know there will be big changes next year. My team won’t stand for this.”
It’s a good thing the Reds stood pat with their pitching (save one minor move) at the trade deadline, because apparently they thought they were just that good already. The pitching staff has been held together with bubble gum and spit instead. Krall seemed so close to actually making this a “serious” contender but the trade deadline inactivity was a Fail. Lord knows we needed to horde 5 prospect shortstops and all the other prospects in a loaded farm system. Krall just got gun-shy and choked on the trigger – or just couldn’t effectively negotiate a winning trade (other GM’s were able to) – and the Reds have paid for it in a merely middling 2’nd half. And all these rookies being called up don’t seem seasoned for a significant deep playoff run. Could still snag a wild card though. Serious playoff progress would have necessitated some better starting AND relief pitching. Even betting on the green Greene and Lodolo coming back and then being postseason aces was somewhat suspect. They actually have a rather small record of consistent accomplishment so far in their young careers. promising? Yes. But that’s a fur piece from what would likely have been needed to progress deeper into the playoffs even if we get there.