Joey Votto homered, doubled, and drove in three runs to help lead the Reds offense. Graham Ashcraft kept his strong stretch of pitching going with six shutout innings. Combine the two things and you got a Cincinnati Reds 9-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday evening that gave the Reds the series win and put them back in 1st place in the National League Central.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (58-49) | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers (59-45) |
0 | 6 | 1 |
| W: Ashcraft (6-7) L: Grove (2-3) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Cincinnati Reds wasted little time on Sunday afternoon getting on the board. Elly De La Cruz led off the game with a single and he scored when TJ Friedl doubled to the wall in center. Matt McLain was then hit by a pitch. Jake Fraley followed up with an RBI single that made it 2-0. Spencer Steer grounded out to third, but it brought in another run that made it 3-0.
In the bottom of the inning Graham Ashcraft ran into some trouble when Freddie Freeman had a 1-out single and then he hit Will Smith to put two runners on. Ashcraft got what he needed, though, getting a grounder from Max Muncy that turned into a double play to end the inning.
Elly De La Cruz added to the Reds lead in the 2nd inning when he hit his 7th homer of the season – a solo blast to right field. In the 3rd inning they’d add on again. Matt McLain led off with his 11th homer of the season to make it 5-0. Jake Fraley picked up his second single of the day and then he’d score when Joey Votto took a cutter in the middle of the plate and hit it 418 feet into the Reds bullpen down the right field line to make it 7-0.
The Dodgers put pressure on Ashcraft again in the bottom of the 4th. Austin Barnes singled to lead off the inning. Chris Taylor would pick up a 1-out single to put two men on, but the Reds righty got back-to-back fly outs to end the inning and keep Los Angeles scoreless.
Two innings later the Reds played add on once again. Will Benson doubled and then came around to score on a 2-out single from TJ Friedl that made it 8-0 as the Dodgers just let Michael Grove take a day for the bullpen to get some additional rest.
Graham Ashcraft returned to the mound for the bottom of the 6th inning and gave up a leadoff single to Freddie Freeman. He worked around that by getting Austin Barnes to follow up with a ground ball double play three pitches later. Max Muncy flew out to end the inning and wrap up the day for the Reds starter.
Derek Law took over for Cincinnati in the bottom of the 7th inning. He made quick work of the frame, striking out two batters and needing just 12 pitches to keep the score 8-0 and send the game into the 8th inning.
The Reds offense would tack on another run in the top of the 9th when Kevin Newman, who led off the inning with a double, scored when Joey Votto doubled into left-center to make it 9-0. Daniel Duarte took over in the bottom of the 9th for Cincinnati and got the job done to seal the shutout, seal the win, and seal the series victory. The win puts the Reds back in 1st place.
Key Moment of the Game
The first inning of the game set the tone. The Reds offense jumped out to a 3-0 lead and then Graham Ashcraft shut them down in the bottom half and Cincinnati never looked back.
Notes Worth Noting
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 1.75 over his last six starts. He’s thrown 36.0 innings in that time frame.
Joey Votto’s home run gives him 351 for his career. That ties him with Dick Allen for 97th most in MLB history.
Elly De La Cruz picked up four hits on the day.
Matt McLain hit his 11th homer of the year and is now hitting .305/.375/.530 on the season in his 65 games since being called up.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Monday July 31st, 8:05pm ET
Andrew Abbott (6-2, 1.90 ERA) vs Marcus Stroman (10-7, 3.51 ERA)
Great win for the Reds today. If the Reds make the post season and McLain continues to hit like this does he have a shot at ROY?
If the Reds win the division I think he has a chance.
Great team effort today.
Go first place Redlegs
It’s probably still Corbin Carroll’s to lose, especially since the DBacks are in the mix this year. But I bet the number two through five vote getters are all Reds.
If Carroll should fall off a cliff though, I think McLain makes the strongest case. Better rate stats than Steer, and less prone to streakiness than Elly.
Don’t forget about Abbott. If he keeps this up he definitely should be ROY Candace and possible some Cy young votes too.
Don’t disagree but Elly gets the biggest press.
Both players have a very similar OPS, but Carroll has the advantage of more playing time, having played all season, plus last year (just barely squeaking under the rookie eligibility limits). Also, Carroll has a lower strikeout rate, more steals, and a higher HR rate.
I think the award was decided back in May or June, and even if Carroll really falls off for the remainder of the year, McLain has to not lose too many votes to ELDC and Abbott.
The Reds have the Dodgers’ number like the Brewers have the Reds’. It’s exciting to see what this team is capable of doing.
I like being in first place by ourselves. Let’s NOT go back. We’ve got momentum going. Let’s keep it. 🙂
These are some good ideas.
+1000
Petal to the metal, especially these next 4 days. Knock the Cubs out of the race before they get all the way into it.
YES
This is what this lineup can do with EDLC and Votto producing. Nice job as an entire team and wow Ashcraft
Would have been really nice if Joey could have had two dingers and a double today… sucked that he caught the 2nd one over the wall but it does look like Joey’s starting to put it together.
I agree. Even last night he had a couple hard hit balls that he didn’t get anything out of. Starting to look a bit more comfortable.
I’d like to go on record as being fine with today’s lineup lol. Great to leave LA with a series and a season win!
Reds also on the plus side of the run differential for the first time in a long time.
Great job, Ashcraft – again. Just when you think the old man is dead… Nice to see the bats come alive before heading to Chi-town.
Zero walks for Ashcraft, only 2Ks. 85 pitches in 6 innings.
That’s when you know he’s on his game and his sinker is getting ground outs.
He said once he only went for a K when absolutely needed it.
Apparently he didn’t need to today.
It sure is a far cry from where he was, and thankfully so.
He had 8 flyouts to 6 groundouts.
P.S. The Braves laid to waste Brewers pitching, but they faced neither Burnes nor Peralta. Good for us.
That Milwaukee series seems like a bad dream right now.
Yes, the agony hath abated.
Being better against the rest of MLB than are the Brewers is already paying off…again.
Brewers just played the Braves….and they’re headed into a soft stretch.
We’ll see if that theory holds up.
I hope so!
Hearing the name Dick Allen evokes what I feel to be the greatest of all White Sox uniforms. The following image takes one to another time…and another culture entirely. Dick Allen was the real deal. https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/12/12/dick-allen-iconic-cover-john-iacono
Dick Allen is a name that lives in eternal infamy for surviving Reds fans old enough to recall the 1964 heartbreak season. Playing for the Phillies, in top of the 8th on October 2, he hit a 2 run triple into the RF bullpen/ corner area which tied the penultimate game of the Reds season at 3 then scored the eventual game winner on a following single.
A win that night would have ensured the Reds no worse than a tie (with the Cardinals) for the NL pennant. Instead, the final day of the season dawned with the Reds and Cards tied for the NL lead. The Reds lost their final game. The Cards won theirs and went on to become World Champions while the 92 win Reds watched from home.
And yes, a certain 15 year old was in attendance at Crosley Field that night and looked on in disbelief.
I believe they lost 10-zip. Billy McCool threw his glove into the dugout and busted the water cooler, flooding the dugout. The Reds had started printing World Series tickets the previous Sunday. I have a sleeve of them on my wall. That year broke my heart, and then of course Fred Hutchinson died a little later 🙁
As tough as the two series with Milwaukee were, the Reds still played .600+ baseball in July.
10H 8ER and 10Ks off the Dodgers pitcher. Don’t see that every day. Reason for concern? Not today.
Gotta believe they had the long game in mind by pulling Ashcraft after 6 today. He was dealing. A peak GA along with Greene and Lodolo would be exciting to see in the playoffs.
Indeed it would those three healthy starters would require very little help from that anything but rested bull pen and give those arms enough time to recuperate not to mention what It would do for a kid like Abbott who would go on every 4 or 5 days?
Trade after trade after trade is being announced, but the Reds still can’t seem to find one team willing to make one reasonable deal for one decent player. It’s a giant conspiracy to stop the Reds.
Asking price too high for Krall? Maybe we’re good with what we have? IDK.
I just find it hard to believe there hasn’t been one major league team willing to part with one decent major league pitcher over the past month for a reasonable prospect or combination of prospects. It simply doesn’t make sense that every team behaves so irrationally. If I’m looking to trade a guy and someone offers me a deal that seems fair, I’m taking the deal before my guy gets injured and I wind up stuck with him. (For example, if the Reds had wanted to trade India to a team needing infield help, they probably missed their chance.)
I agree. I think we are not trading because Greene/Lodolo coming back and a couple of possible SP from minors might come up as well. Cost for pitching way to high right now. We will go after FA when we get money to spend over the winter.
It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the prospects other teams want are people Krall doesn’t want to trade. I’m certain he’s trying, but other teams recognize blue-chippers as well as–and likely better than–we do. The price for pitching this year is high. It’s a seller’s market.
The longer we move forward the less it seems that we’re desperate for a trade. Pitching is improving a lot. May need a solid reliever but with Greene and Lodolo returning we’re going to have a full house.
Yes! Finally someone speaking sensibly. We’re fine on the pitching front, save for a reliever (lefty, preferably).
A trade for a solid starter would have made sense several weeks ago, because that guy could have saved the bullpen a lot of innings on Weaver’s days, which would make the whole bullpen stronger right now. At this point it doesn’t make nearly as much sense to go after a starter, but a lefty reliever (and/or a strong righty who’s capable of being a setup guy or a closer when needed) made sense a long time ago when the Reds failed to get Chapman, and it’s made sense every day since then.
@J The strong righty is supposed to be Antone, right? Can we hold off till his return? Totally agree on the lefty.
I’d be really surprised if anyone is counting on Antone.
Agreed! With Ashcraft on point again Abbott and Williamson (who I personally like), and two well-rested arms in Greene and Lodolo, together with (hopefully) Gutierrez, Antone, Santillan, that is a heckuva boost for the ENTIRE pitching staff.
While I agree with those that say that we can’t keep everyone who is wearing a wishbone C on their cap AND all the bluechippers in the farm system …. I would like to see if (as an example) Noelve Marte is better than Spencer Steer, before trading him for a pitcher that we may only have control over for 2023-24.
As far as Cam Collier and the next, next generation….I am not certain how good THAT trade bait is at this point.
I was somewhat excited about the Verlander rumor, but after seeing Scherzer get traded and now the MLB Trade Rumors story about the Mets valuing Verlander much higher than Scherzer, I’m actually hoping to not see a huge blockbuster by the Reds. Especially now that the entire rotation seems to be figuring it out all at the same time. I’m starting to be on the side of at least getting a bullpen arm, but hopefully the starters pitching better and deeper helps the rest of the pen as well.
Sometimes the best deal is no deal?
I hope the Bull has the cojones to say “No deal.” and not feel pressured into making a trade just because.
The Moran, Minor, Pham, Myers acquisitions speak to that concern.
Trading assets is different than acquiring them.
I think the Benson trade looks great, but that was a low risk venture.
The Newman deal was understandable, but more of a wash as it turns out with McLain blossoming so fast.
A lot of pitching stiffs have moved through the system the last two years to suggest he’s fishing around and has finally found a few keepers.
A lefty high leverage closer would be awesome, but that may have to come from a Genie’s bottle.
Dancing with the ones who brought us might be the way forward.
I do feel like he’s going to need to make some kind of deal or order to say he made a deal.
I hope his buying skills improve to the level of his selling skills.
Daytonnati
Could not agree more.
With where the Reds are, and the future. It is better not to overpay.
That’s a version of the old Quaker saying I used to hear as a kid: Sometimes the best thing said is what is not said.
Speculation that Verlander is going to the Dodgers.
Reds run differential is finally positive +3. 1st place again feels good, lets hope EDLC is locking in.
I noted the same. A nice milestone. Anyone know where one can find a RS/RA tracker?
I’d love to see the furthest the Reds have been into the negative this season and how it’s changed.
Also, the Cubs sit at +57 but it seems that they achieved a good mark and have since been reading water.
Brewers blog said they have the 3rd easiest schedule remaining and the Reds have the 10th easiest. Cubs have a marshmallow period coming up in mid- August themselves, but games aren’t decided on paper.
Watched some of the Philly/Pirates series and the Pirates played harder imo. They got down and fought back so you never know
Castellanos and Schwarber WAR numbers are bad. Thats $180 million for 2 outfield guys combined at replacement level WAR numbers.
I remember Castellanos bashing Reds ownership for not spending the money to keep him after he opted out his first contract with the Reds. The Reds made the smart move letting him walk. And it’s a good lesson to the Reds to avoid overpaying free agents. The Mets and Padres are this finding out hard way.
He didn’t bash anyone. He just said he was not offered a contract from the Reds.
He was an All Star this year.
Nobody needs all stars….
….said nobody ever
My understanding–and correct me if I’m wrong–is that Castellanos was offered a contract, probably for the same money he’d agreed to in his original contract before he opted out. When is a contract not a contract? When it has an opt-out clause.
VA, Castellanos was an all-star this year with an OPS+ of 106 (slightly above the average player regardless of position/Joe average for a RFr). The Phillies paid $20MM for average. They paid $20MM for a below average OPS+ of 96 last year. And they’ll pay $20MM per for the next three years.
$40MM for 2 years of average play is a good deal … said no one ever.
@Tom, indeed it is. Many folks here wanted Benintendi last winter for 75M. We could replicate his .713 OPS by just promoting Fairchild right now. But Fairchild can’t even make our team right now. Shows you what a 75M free agent contract will get you. Moustakas, Benintendi, Schwarber, countless others. The grass is not greener in the FA market.
Strength of schedule can be really deceptive. For example, if every game remaining on the Brewers’ schedule were against the Reds, that would be considered an extremely tough schedule because every game would be against a team currently over .500. And yet we all know they’d win about 80% of those game.
Unfortunately that’s true at the moment. But I understand what you’re getting at. Certain teams just match up really well/poorly. The Braves and their fans couldn’t wait to be done with the Reds, but they probably wouldn’t mind playing the Brewers more.
I think “strength-of-schedule” analysis in baseball is horse hockey. They are all Major League teams with 26 Major League players, capable of beating you, especially when you go into the game looking down your nose at the other team.
The A’s swept the Brewers this year.
Show up every day; respect the opponent; play hard; and assume nothing. Or lose instead.
Reds are in first place on July 30
McLain is amazing, Steer is solid , and Elly might be making that adjustment to his next level which no one knows. Ashcraft and Abbott are pitching amazing now. Diaz has 31 saves. Greene is back in 3 weeks.
Reds are for real. See what Krall does. This team is fun.
Hopefully, CES will make the necessary adjustments, too.
Some ugly at-bats today. That’s for sure.
Steer offensively, yes! On defense, not sold! 9 errors so far this season and it seems like his fielding/throwing errors are at the most inopportune time in a game (with 2 outs for example) and have contributed significantly to at least 2 of the Reds recent losses! Yes, everybody makes errors but errors that extend innings and lead to runs affect our thin and overworked pitching staff in particular!
steer has to dh or play first, ces has to dh or play first, Votto has to dh or play first. 2 places in order 3 bats. Next year they can offset that, but, right now, we have to work around it. When Joey is banging, he is obvious choice at first. Steer has been the more consistent hitter, Maybe the reason they kept ces down so long was they are professionals and they fore saw what he was going to have trouble with. Still think CES has bright future.
Theberror yesterday was in the first inning. The Reds lost 3-2. No way that error should have decided the game. Reds had 8 innings to overcome the 2 runs caused. Blame the offense for not winning that game, not some booted groundball with no one in in the first inning. Overall, I’ve been happy with Steer’s defense. Made some spectacular plays and has been bounced all over the field and just goes out there and does what he’s asked.
Steer plays alot of positions. It’s hard to get use to one position as a rookie as well as three other ones. He had the error in the first inning. Maybe you should worry more about Benson watching strike three with the bases loaded. That hurt more than a error in the first.
Steer has been a solid, versatile defender. He’s moved all over the field for the team, risking the embarrassment of making errors as he moved. And he moved anyway to help the team. Let’s not bash the guy who’s being flexible to help his team win.
I don’t get the bashing of Steer’s defense.
He’s been great at 1B, solid in LF and 3B. People forget all the great plays he made previously, just because he made an error.
Hey, campers! Alive & Well! In the words of Carl Spackler (Caddy Shack), “I Was Unavoidably Detained! Medical emergency, not me, with a close family member last night that required emergency surgery this morning! Did follow the game on my phone but was obviously distracted!
Great game! Great Win! Great day for the Reds! Back in 1st Place in the NL Central AND the Stupid Cubs finally lost to the hapless Dirty Birds! Speaking of the Cardinals, look like they are having a fire sale!
Let’s finish this 10-game road trip on an up note by putting the Stupid Cubs back in hibernation!
Welcome back Dennis!
Hope to hear from Roger Soon
Hope that medical emergency is turning out well. Glad is wasn’t you that passed out from all the drama. 🙂 Keep your meds stocked. 😉
Yes, I nearly fainted when I saw the final score! Hope we can take that mojo to Chicago!
Hopefully Votto mashes in Wrigley like he almost always does. Would love to see CES start every game in Chicago and get back to not chasing and pressing so much. I predict Votto and CES have big series in Chicago. I remember when I used to feel sorry for the Cubs, that is no longer the case. All of the annoying Cubs fans that come to Cinci have made me love beating the Cubs almost as much as the Cards. We really need to win this series and gain a little separation from the “stupid cubbies”. Big Series, gotta find a way to win it.
Having lived in northern Indiana back in the late 70’s & early 80’s, I will say the Cub fans are loyal but obnoxious! Let’s not give them any quarter or any hope of making the playoff!
Seems quite here. The win is so convincing there’s nothing to discuss? How about Abbott vs Stroman matchup tomorrow? Hope for a pitching duo bit the good guys come out on top.
Numbers from our pen. I think Bell actually manages it pretty well!
Sims = Gave up 3 runs twice in games the Reds won. Up 6-2 Friday and his 3 guys scored. Thats heck of a lot better then giving up 3 when you’re up 6-5. The other time was the 3 solos to Atlanta in the 11-10 win. Subtract those and his era drops to 2.47 and his batting average allowed is a ridiculous .153
Cruz = Allowed 3 to the Dbacks up 9-3. Again no harm no foul. Subtract that and his era since June 12 is 0.90
Gibalt = 0.73 era in July dropping his season era down to 2.96
Young = 1.44 era since May 10
We still need high leverage help in a big way, but those guys are handling a ton of appearances and competing well
Pinpointed another one for you Mr Krall! I know you read this))
Lefty Brooks Raley from the Mets. He’s 35 years old and has a 1.35 era since May. K’d the side today to get the save vs the Nats
I brought him up earlier. Him and Hand from Colorado would look good in cincy.
All of them make me nervous when they come in the game with the Reds holding a lead!
Remember Coco Cordero, Dennis? I’ve been nervous since the Nasty Boys retired.
Just a fun game to watch, including that mop-up mess of a 9th inning. Let’s blow into Chicago with an attitude that says the Stupid Cubs have had their fun and now can return to their previous form.
Watching the fire sale in St. Louis is reminiscent of some old Reds teams where we sold off everything (usually for a bucket of balls and pocket change). I’m still hoping we find a couple fresh arms before the deadline, but if we don’t, we don’t. Nothing any of us can do about that.
There is a part of my soul that enjoys watching the “Greatest Fans On the Planet” have to deal with what we have been tortured with for years. It is most pleasant.
It is surprising to see St. Louis in and out of last place at this point in the season. But Cardinal history has a few periods when they were not competitive. And a couple of their championships in the 1940’s came when many players were in WW II. Now, the retirement of Molina and others calls for a rebuild.
Just an observation about the 1st place Dodgers! In many ways they are similar to the Reds! They are trying to survive until 2 of their key starting pitchers (Buehler & Kershaw) return for the stretch run! Likewise, the Reds are battling for both 1st place in the NL Central or one of the 3 Wild Card spots until Greene & Lodolo return
This year I find the Dodgers offense a bit less threatening without Justin Turner on the team. His hitting often caused games to be out of reach.
If the pitching holds up I would like to see the windfall Cincinnati would get In salary dumps next year in nailing down contracts for some of these young players rather than pay too much for an SP.
If you use Greene’s contract as a template, then you could easily do both. I think Greene gets 1.3M, 3.3M, 6.MM, 8.3M in his 1st 4 years, so even if we signed McLain, Abbott, and EDLC to the same or similar deal, there’s a ton of money available in 24, 25, 26 to sign a FA starter, and back of the pen guy to help Diaz.
Hey Tim agreed 100%
That was a well pitched series by the Redlegs – especially by the starters.
If we can get CES and Stephenson to start hitting the lineup would be even better.
Great Reds’ victory!
Obviously the hitting explosion was awesome.
Ashcraft shutout was awesome.
I also loved in the boxscore under pitching: 0, zero, zip, nada, none BB in three innings of relief.
Now go beat on those Cubs!
Hey MA. Hitting was great but the pitcher Dodgers ran out there was throwing up fat over the middle breaking balls most of the game and when he did Reds hit it.
Let’s see what Fairchild can do upon his return.
Not to be a downer, but I think we’ve seen what we’re going to see from SF:
.245 ba with the occasional pop to inflate his OPs.
Solid D and speed.
A lot of Ks.
I think he needs to play every day to see much better than that.
Another RH hitter off the bench, but the Reds already have Newman and Senzel for that.
I know he’s an RLN favorite who stirs up the Fraley-haters.
If someone goes down then he’s a passable, even worthy sub.
Tuesday trade deadline might shake everything up, but I hope he doesn’t press and makes the most of the opportunity while India is out.
Jumping on a 1st pitch curveball from a position player with a weak fly out wasn’t the best start.
I wish him well. He has a lot of tools, but hasn’t manifest much, however his stats may be parsed by the faithful.
To me Fairchild is like a more complete Phillip Ervin. I used to feel good when I saw Ervin penciled in against a lefty because he got on base and had a little pop. Fairchild has a .385 obp vs lhp and won’t chase a bunch of stuff like we’ve seen Reds do lately. He’s also fast and covers a lot of ground in the OF. Much better baserunner then Senzel. We might see both plus Newman in Wrigley
Prior to this series, it seemed like the Reds just needed a breath of fresh, non-Brewer air. Sure enough, this series was carried by some first-inning magic. It’s almost like the bats themselves couldn’t wait to face some other team — ANY other team.
I am liking EDLC at the top of the line-up. I know it’s a small sample (and I know he’s streaky), but the early 1-0 lead is a serious tone-setter that Elly can help create — OFTEN.
Go Reds!
Elly has all of the natural skill and speed that you would want at the leadoff. He just needs to learn to be a little more selective, lay off the breaking pitch in the dirt and take some walks. If he would walk more and steal bases every time that he did I guarantee that he will start to see a few more fastballs. I think he will adjust and eventually be the best leadoff man in baseball.
I know it’s a terrible comparison, but I’ve thought of Jose Peraza sometimes since Ella came up.
Remember Peraza had 180+ hits in (I think) his second year with the Reds?
Who has come close to that?
Of course he had ZERO plate discipline and would swing at anything.
Low K rate, but all that hacking produced less and less and less.
Of course the Reds juggled him around position to position even trying him in CF.
Sound familiar?
EDLC and Peraza have little else in common, I know.
But after that one remarkable season, I thought JP was on to a very promising career.
Never learned how to be selective at the plate.
Kind of a minor baseball tragedy, of sorts.
I think Elly is more receptive and self critical to make the adjustments…and has a solid culture around him to help.
Again, not trying to equate EDLC and Peraza at all, just reflecting on that one promising year and the art of self discipline.
A walk for EDLC is the same as a double about 90% of the time!
You are right Harry. A terrible comparison. Why bother? EDLC is the #1 prospect in baseball and while he is striking out a lot he is a hard worker and will figure it out. Peraza was a ranked prospect a couple of years prior to the Reds trading for him. But baseball experts figured out he was not so good and he lost his shine.
EDLC has baseball instincts most dream about, including Peraza. EDLC is 21, Peraza was 24 in the year you refer to. EDLC has power, not so much for Peraza. Peraza had wheels, but not nearly as much as EDLC.
You are placing your entire comparison of the two on playing several positions. EDLC is moving between 3B and SS. In the year of your comparison, Peraza started 152 games. He also started 152 games at SS. He played the field in 4 games he did not start. 3 of the 4 were at SS. The fourth was in RF. For the year he played 1329 innings at SS and 2 in RF. So your comparison of them two in this regard falls short also.
You were right about one thing. A terrible comparison.
God, Harry. I hope I can get that comparison out of my mind.
I remember at one point during the game, it showed Encarnacion-Strand’s face after striking out again. He looked visibly distressed by it. I wonder if he is pushing himself too hard lately? Or maybe he is guessing too much up here on pitches? I am sure he will be a good player, but he really seems to be the type that needs to play everyday, not as part of a rotation/platoon.
He misses fastball and completely whiffs on slider, no wonder he’s distressed. The team is in a pennant race, so it’ll tough for Bell or FO to be patient with him. If this were last year, he would have plenty more time to make adjustments, just like the time given to Barrero. I think he will not play a lot if he’s not improving quickly.
This is why I think we need another bat at the deadline. Someone who has been in the playoffs preferably. I’m thinking Mark Canha.
I said this earlier. I know CES will be a solid hitter. I just think he feels the pressure and is falling into some old bad habits. Some on here said he needs to play everyday. I disagree. In case you haven’t noticed we’re in the middle of a pennant race. I agree with LT, as opposed to last year, now is not the time for him to figure things out in meaningful at bats.
If they do to CES what they did to Barrero it will be criminal.
Welcome to the Bigs, CES. I hope he comes around soon.
Great win and trip to the coast. I have come to the conclusion that bullpens have become as or more important as starters. With Greene and Lodolo coming back for the stretch run. I would like to see the Reds take a run at Bret Sutter, the Moeller kid who used to kill the Reds when he was in Milwaukee. He would probably be fired up to get home and into a pennant race versus the team that traded him.I would assume he would be less expensive, maybe a guy like Rece Hinds and a lesser prospect gets it done..
You are definitely right on the bullpens becoming much more important. With most starters going on average about 5 innings, the staff is really thinned out by the need for strong relievers. The teams that win have the best bullpens nowadays it seems.
I wonder if the league would ever consider something truly whacky: increase the number of roster players to 30. I know.. sounds so nutty. But, you could really make for a more competitive game and probably lead to less injuries, too. The players would love it as well. The owners would probably be the biggest opponents due to salaries, etc.
I see that we have a number of relievers that might return fairly soon from IL. Unfortunately, none of them are lefties. Young can’t do this alone.
Thanks for deleting my post. What’s the point in participating?
for the month of July reds starters have given up 48 earned runs in 131 innings. that is pretty good. I don’t think we need to mortgage the farm for a starter. relief help would be nice for sure. I am hoping Joey is finding his stroke and can be that big bopper in the middle of the line up but I am not convinced he can. it would be nice to get a veteran bat somehow some way
Huge win. Huge series win as well. The next series against the Cubs turned out dangerous. The Reds should look for a split at least. I see the Cubs starting pitching some tough to the Reds since Stroman and Taillon usually throw well against them and Smyly has been dominant but the last two outings vs Cincy was hit consistently. Steele has an oustanding season although hasn’t been good when face the Redlegs…Let’s see what will happen
I agree Rednat. The Reds staff is an interesting evolution. Williamson struggled in June. I don’t know what happened but he was pretty good in July. I don’t know if DJ had any input or what happened but something happened.
What happened to Weaver vs. the Dodgers? Hopefully something happened that may allow him to reach his potential.
Lively has become a good pitcher for the Reds.
Abbott is a stud. What an amazing year.
In an age where you need to average 9+K/9IP Ashcraft is proving to be the exception. Exceptional.
I certainly hope Weaver has figured something out, but I would NOT gamble the rest of the season on him. That gamble also includes Greene and Lodolo. Hoping for the best is not a sound strategy.
Reds Offer Cam Collier, Connor Phllips, and TJ Hopkins for Verlander.
Who says no?
I’d bet the Reds say no on that deal
I’d say no to that deal. Keep the winning window as open as possible.
There is no way the Reds do that deal.
Anybody who has half a brain says no.
I’d say no! Texas got max sherzer and a boatload of money for 1 decent propect – who plays in a league where the hitting stats are always inflated.
Verlander is also a 2+ year commitment. Too much salary to take on into 2025 when some of our dudes are gonna near paid.
I’d prefer a lower tier starter. Rodriguez could probably be had at reasonable cost because he can opt out this off season. I also like the royals lefty reliever.
To quote Jim on the Vicar of Dibley, “No…NoNo…No, NO. NO!”
Verlander contract commitment would be $80-100MM for an aging pitcher. Conner Phillips may well have more MLB wins from this point forward than Verlander.
Phillips is ML ready, and we are playoff ready, it would make no sense to deal him. Take out Phillips, and replace him with Acuna, or Aguiar, and I’d do it.
Two top 100 prospects for a 40 yo who’s going to get almost $100M (assuming he pitches 140 inn next year) in the next 2.5 seasons?
Sign the Mets up for that I’m sure. For the Reds, though, you could minus all three players and they still wouldn’t make the deal, understandably.
I say no to that deal. I think Phillips will be a better pitcher in the majors in 2024 than Verlander. Much better in 2025.
I don’t see how the team could expect to upgrade the starters right now. It appears Ashcraft turned it around a few starts ago, Williamson a couple of starts after that and now perhaps Weaver has increased velocity, movement and command with a willingness to pitch inside every now and again. Besides Hunter coming back in 3 weeks, Lodolo in 4 weeks. Bullpen set to add Antone, Gutierrez in similar fashion provides renewed freshness. Three scheduled off days on August 10, 14 and 17 makes it easy to reduce rotation just before the returning guys are back. I don’t see a lot of urgency to add at all.
Are we really going to ignore an entire season of ineptness because he had 1 great game?
No, but because the cost of another starter for a couple starts. It would definitely cost too much to get someone better than the current top 4 plus the 2 coming back. I’ll take Weaver for 2 more starts over getting fleeced for the sake of replacing those 2 starts.
If they were up 5 in the division, or 8 in the wildcard, then you could take the chance with 3 more starts by Weaver…but they aren’t. I’d prefer they didn’t leave those things up for chance.
I’m far from convinced that Weaver is viable going forward, but Greene is likely back in 21/2 weeks, so you could look at it this way: how much prospect talent is it worth surrendering to avoid a handful of starts by Weaver? Remember the oddity, too: the Reds frequently win when he pitches horribly.
Well said RedsFuture
But by not trading for a starter, you’re banking on all of the following:
1. Green or Lodolo coming back on time.
2. No other starters getting hurt.
3. No current starters regress and needs replacing.
I don’t want to mortgage the future, but I do want Weaver out of the starting rotation ASAP. Surely we can find some noncontending team’s salary dump.
Dry nice read about how David Bell is thought of in the clubhouse.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/david-bell-put-stamp-cincinnati-232501765.html
There’s some value in the clubhouse that the players like the manager. But just like he is good at recognizing all of the small things the players do, he has to balance that with accountability when they make dumb mental errors…like bad baserunning decisions (not to be confused with being aggressive on the bases), or throwing to the wrong base. Sure, he might whisper something to them, but then it happens again and again with no consequences. I don’t expect him to undress them in public. But benching them for a game or two, shows the team that it will not be tolerated.
You make good points. I wonder if he is taking a different approach with some of these guys because they are so young and just settling in to being in the big leagues. I haven’t seen any lack of effort in the field or on the bases so far which is the most important part for me as a fan.
As you point out, I would hope if errors are made, due to lack of effort or attention to detail, I would hope he keeps them accountable. I hope they keep each other accountable
Great read. Thanks for sharing the article Jim. David Bell earned the respect and confidence of the players. Here’s hoping there is a good amount of success for the team during his tenure. I think this year has proven his worth and he deserved the extension to take this team into the future.
That was great Jim. Thanks for posting.
The Reds don’t need to mortgage the future to “go for it” this season. Put confidence in the guys that got them in this position and, if anything, add reinforcements around the edges of the roster. I can see a need for a SP because Abbott will hit an innings limit and it’s unknown when and how effective Greene and Lodolo may be upon returning. At the same time the cost for rentals needs to be reasonable and not exorbitant. A reliever, especially a LH one, makes a lot of sense.
For me personally, Marte and Phillips are untouchable. Collier is too because I think the Reds would be selling a bit low if they swung a deal with him now. Obviously I’d like to hang onto Arroyo, Petty, and Stewart but could see them moved in the right deal for controllable SP. it’ll be interesting to see what Krall has up his sleeve, but I have gained a good amount of trust in him over the past two years, so if anything is done I trust it’ll be with the future still in mind.
I have full trust in Krall, if we make a deal, great. If we don’t, also great.
My opinion is that we should add if it makes sense to, but I don’t want to give up top prospects if we aren’t going to be a top 2 seed which would only get us a bo3 playoff series.
Especially top pitching prospects since this year is showing us how valuable they can be.
100% agree. The Reds have been fortunate that most of the rookies have performed well. Keeping that pipeline intact will be crucial for the future of the team.
As shown by the injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo this year, you can never have enough pitching.
They will always find places for good players to play.
I would agree also.
They must retain their pitching prospects.
Yes, I remember when the Reds had fewer pitching prospects and offloaded Josiah Gray for Alex Wood/Puig package.
That was not a good long term play. Gray on this rotation would be 3-4 more wins easily.
Twins pitching prospect will pay off for us eventually too.
I agree with MK and JF. In modern baseball a dominant bullpen might be the most important weapon a team can have. I would like to see the Reds add a solid lefty for the Bullpen but I don’t know who that would be. I think they should also think about prepping some of their best young arms for key roles in the BP. In my opinion, pitch limits, both in game and season wide, video in the dugout and all of the metrics that show how ineffective most starters are the third time through a lineup, have devalued starting pitching. I’m not sure what Hunter Greene’s third time through the order metrics are like this year, but going into this year, they were not good. I would love to see the Reds eventually adopt a philosophy of using their top 4 in the rotation as traditional starters, maybe Abbott, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, and then having two starts a week where they employ an opener. In my dream world next year they have the most dominant bullpen in baseball with a rejuvenated Antone pitching the 7th, Greene locking down the 8th, and Diaz as the closer. I know… But y’all can let me dream. I do however believe that small market teams like the Reds need to be creative and adapt to the realities of modern baseball. Invest in the Pen!
Reds didn’t sign Greene to AAV of 9M for 6 years to pitch the 8th. He’s a couple tweaks and a little experience from being a dominant starter.
I haven’t worked it out but off the top of my head, I wonder how your plan would impact wear and tear on the pen. Bullpens all over MLB are pitching lots of innings and showing the strain. Starters average a bit over 5 innings and the hope, I suppose, is that some of our guys–Abbot looks likely for now–could frequently give us six. A couple of bullpen games a week would add innings, wouldn’t it? And, since you couldn’t use the same pitchers day after day, you’d have to assemble and retain a terrific pen, top to bottom. Still, pitching and its application are clearly evolving, so who knows?
No way do I move Greene to the bullpen. Makes zero sense. His ERA this year the third time through the order is 3.71.
If you want a stud for the 8th why not acquire Hader in the offseason.
ATH, I agree. They did not… but my argument is, if he doesn’t learn a third pitch and get better at pitching the third time through the order, is it the best use of his skills? I would love to see him develop an over-hand curveball as a third pitch. So far his changeup has not looked very effective. His two best pitches are too close in speed. He needs an effective change of pace pitch if he is ever going to be a dominant starter. He also needs to stay healthy. I could be wrong but it seems to me that relievers don’t spend as much time on the DL. I’m not sure if stats back up that opinion but it is my perception. I hope he becomes a great starter but in my opinion, his lack of movement on his fastball and the lack of a quality off speed pitch screams bullpen. I think he would be more effective just cutting it loose 3 times a week for an inning or two in high leverage positions. I am very aware that my opinion is not a popular one but I form opinions on what I see, not what I hope.
While I agree he still needs tweaks, I don’t think he needs another breaking pitch (curveball) at all. He is working on tweaking things this year, if you noticed. He now varies the speed on both his 4 seemer and his slider, throwing an 86-87mph slider and a harder 90mph version. He generally throws the softer one earlier in the game, and later he ramps up velo on both his 4 seemer and mixes in the harder slider the third time through. Bailey did this well when he was at his best.
He doesn’t use his changeup as often as he should, mostly because it’s just an average pitch (at best) with little plane movement. But he’s smart and he’ll evolve like Mahle did, and better. He just needs time and experience and more work on the changeup.
I hope you are right. He also needs to stay healthy and learn to consistently pitch deep into games. Varying speeds on his pitches will be a critical development, because like a lot of really hard throwers, his fastball has very little movement. I just think a slow curve may be easier to develop than a changeup. I also think it puts less pressure on his arm.
Who is more valuable to their team right now? Hunter Greene or Devin Williams? I would argue Williams is, especially since he is actually pitching in games right now.
You may be right, Soto. But there is a context: Williams only has value if the pitchers who precede him have kept the game close. Same for traditional closers. I do take your point, though. Making a few assumptions about number of appearances and innings pitched, Williams wouldn’t have many fewer innings per week than Greene.
Sounds like Cleveland is entertains offers for Aaron Civale. The Reds should be in those discussions.
*entertaining
He’s probably the type of guy the Reds would be interested in. Not a hard thrower but all his pitches rate better than average. Induces a lot of weak contact, not a high K guy. And he’s controlled a couple more years.
Reds match up with Cleveland, on paper. But I bet they will be, or have been, asking for Marte, CES, or Steer as headliner. It would take something of that quality as a headliner for Civale, for sure.
Has anyone told Bull Krall that tomorrow is the trade deadline? Seriously, this trade season has been pretty lame across all of MLB. I am hoping for a wild next 24 hours for the league. However, I would prefer the Reds only add a couple relievers at most as the asking price for teams seems way too high and I don’t see a reason to empty the farm for a best of 3 series.
I expect that Krall is working the phones (metaphorically). It does take two to tango.
It’s been lame because of the expanded playoffs and the close wild-card races, especially in the NL. There are very few selling teams; all of them are selling because they are losing; and they are losing because they have bad players and/or bad contracts. The Mets had to eat $35 million to get rid of Max Scherzer. There was not a Luis Castillo to be had this season.
And at the last week or so, two potential sellers — the Padres and the Cubs — surged and appear now not to be selling. The Padres may still ditch Snell and/or Hader, but the asking price has gone way up.
There is nothing on the market to make it exciting.
Did you read what Aaron Civale just went for. A 238 hitting AAA player. What is the Comp to that? Fairchild? If you are going into this trade deadline not willing to deal players like Fairchild, Barerro, Hopkins, or Lopez, then you are not real interested in making a deal to improve the team. Any one of these guys would have got Chapman or Robertson. It is truly unfortunate that Krall is not willing to improve this team for guys that are not integral to 2024 plans.
The comp is CES or better, because the Rays guy was #37 in MLB and #31 at Fangraphs.
Hitting Wrigley tonight for the first time. Any recommendations? Beyond bringing back the W of course.
Enjoy — great ballpark!
Keep firmly in mind that we come not to praise the wretched cubbies but to bury them (metaphorically). I don’t capitalize cubs because it’s the diminutive of Bear.
Exactly
Greenmtred, throwing the ball like well today, to say the least.
I’ve found that Cubs fans at Wrigley are not nearly as annoying as the ones who show up at GABP. That isn’t really saying much, though.
Get to the park a couple of hours before the game and enjoy the neighborhood and atmosphere around the park.
Have a great time Wrigley is a great place to watch a game. Remember, Babe Ruth once played there.
Soto, it seems to me is your arguement is based on several wrong assumptions.
1. Relievers get hurt. Don’t fool yourself.
2. Since Greene has only two pitches he is effective only the first and second time through the order and gets lit up the third time through the order. You make this assumption without doing any research, which is lazy.
3. You somehow believe that having your most talented pitcher throw 3 innings a week is better than him throwing 6 or 7 because of your 3rd time through the order assumption. Hence you make an assumption on an assumption. Not a good thing.
Here is some research on the second assumption.
From Aug 1 of 2022 – October 3 of 2022 (inclusive) Green threw 7 innings where he faced at least one batter for the third time.
If you combine these 7 innings with the 17 in 2023 you get 24 inning with an ERA of 2.625 and a WHIP of 1.042.
This tells me his stuff is good enough to play the third time through the lineup right now. The hope is he will learn and improve but even these stats scream SP to me.
Thanks for nailing it AllTheHype.
Stock, Of course RPs get hurt. I just said it seems like starters are more prone to injury. Not sure if it’s true. As I stated, my assumptions on the third time through the order were based on his career stats through last year which I looked up. They were not good. My biggest “assumption” is based on the fact that almost all of the great starting pitchers that I have seen in my life had more than two quality pitches or had a dramatic difference in speed with their off-speed pitch. They also stayed healthy and most had better movement on their fastball than Greene does. Like I said, I hope he becomes a great starter. I’m just very sceptical and think his skill set leans more toward a quality reliever than that of a starter. Obviously, the Reds agree with you. I just happened to think that you are both wrong. That being said, I am rooting for him to prove me wrong. I sincerely hope that he does.
I love baseball analytics. I enjoy parsing all of the publicly available data. However, sometimes good details skew the big picture. Hunter Greene has made 14 starts with an ERA+ of 120–20 percent better than the league average, and his FIP indicates he’s pitched even better. All 30 teams would employ Hunter Greene as a starter, and I don’t see any staff that he wouldn’t start in the first three games of a playoff series. While you’ve pointed out some areas of his game that could improve, a better conclusion would be that he should continue to start because he’s got the potential to be a true “ace” once he masters a third pitch (likely a change-up).
Now BK, your argument seems more logical to me than Stock’s. Stock, I usually agree with you. I trust your research. I will say that he has shown improvement this year. I guess the biggest part of my argument is that the value of a starter just doesn’t seem to be what it used to be. I also think one of the most important traits of a starter is availability.
BK and Stock, I also agree that Greene has the potential to be a Starting Ace someday, but I think he could be a dominant BP arm right now, maybe one of the best. I also remember the excitement that Chapman brought to the stadium 4 nights a week. To me it would be much more exciting and possibly more valuable to use Greene 3 or 4 times a week compared to 6 innings, once a week. Shoot, the Reds win games with Weaver starting.
@Soto. Chapman seemed to relish the closer role. Greene seems to relish the starting role. Also, Chapman has always struggled with control, which would have always worked against him as a starter. Lastly, the Reds needed a closer when Chapman was sent to the pen; that’s not a need today, although the Reds would benefit greatly by adding a quality arm toward the back of the pen.
I agree Greene needs to be more available–he’s not helping the team from Arizona doing midseason core work. I’m glad that neither Greene’s injury nor Lodolo’s injury involves their arms. Good discussion!
left handed relievers on teams that are selling: brent suter, brad hand, sam moll, tyler holton, brooks raley, chasen shreve, angel perdomo, ryan yarborough. one of these is essential, not another starter. how hard could it be to land one?
Yes – this is the necessary move – some of those are better than others, but all should be affordable (i.e. low level prospect, AAAA star), and most would be useful right now, if not next season.
Absolutely
Don’t know for sure if anyone on here has mentioned LHRP Brent Suter Colorado is free agent after this season. I have no idea if he is up for being traded or what Colorado needs but sounds like a good fit for the Reds this year if the trade stars align.
yes b. suter was mentioned, with 7 or 8 other lefthanders that might be available. See post by Tim just a few ahead of your post.
Given that the Braves are a tier above everyone and the Brewers are our nemesis, what options Reds FO are looking at? To contend for WS or just win NL pennant, FO needs to make big trades for pitching and hitting. They probably won’t do that. Making small trades to give the team a better chance to make the playoffs but won’t advance far in the playoffs, is more likely the option. But with pitching help on the way if the players like Greene and a few relievers come off injury list, this team is good enough to make playoffs, unless contending teams like Brewers, Cubs, giants, Phillies make big trades. I wouldn’t be surprised if FO decides to sit out of this trading season.
just because someone comes off the IL doesn’t mean they will be good especially right after coming off the IL.
And just because a player is received in a trade doesn’t mean that they will perform well. See Mahle, Tyler.
Absolutely correct. But the same goes for a prospect. Maybe even more of a crap shoot. You make a trade with the aim of improving the team based on the data as you know. No guarantees.
wow. mlb rumors has the reds listed as one of the clubs interested in Verlander, but dodgers and astros are the frontrunners for his services.
Many times, trades happen with teams with no rumored connection.
Looks as though the Reds have the 4th best W-L percentage in the NL, and only five AL teams have a high winning percentage. One would not expect that if one believed the bell is doing a terrible job comments , they needed one to two quality starters, they need a power bat, the lineup is all wrong and players are horribly mismatched for where they should be hitting, a closer is needed, the BP needs at least two relievers, and those are the only ones that come to mind off the top of head 4 hours after being in La La land for periodontal surgery.
I know that deadline deals are largely overrated, maybe they seldom even make a difference. Still, I will be disappointed if Nick Krall doesn’t do something to support this team who has overcome a lot this season to be in the middle of a pennant race.
It’s easy to trade established players for prospects, he has done quite well at that, but a great GM finds ways to help the team when they have a chance to win.
Maybe we will learn tomorrow that the Reds have acquired a solid start and a couple of bullpen arms.
My fear though is we will hear that the Reds were really close on some big names but the cost was just too high. In other words, re-lease the same memo they released in 2021.
I hope I am wrong. These players deserve better.
I have read too that the Reds are not willing to part with players in order to get a starting pitcher or even a reliever.
If Krall does absolutely nothing to help the pitching, I will be highly disappointed, and will lose a little respect for the guy. Like you said he needs to know how to go both ways. Prospects especially those in AA or lower should be traded especially if they are infielders.
Please Krall don’t sit there and tell me oh we tried and had some good talks, but nothing materialized that we felt was a good trade. You can find a decent reliever for not too expensive of cost.
Really getting nervous about being disappointed in this year’s trade deadline. Come on Krall get a Haul.
It’s the last day of July, and the Reds have seven of their starting position players with a .782 OPS or higher. All of these except Votto (.791 OPS) have years of team control left.
McLain now has a .905 OPS with 266 at bats (small sample size no longer applies). That’s pretty incredible. He’s doing it with a healthy combo of both getting on base and slugging.
Steer doesn’t always get the respect that he deserves. Current OPS of .811 with 378 at bats (second on the team, with third place not close to him). And he’s done that while playing 1B, 2B, 3B, and outfield. He’s the team MVP for the first half of the season.
What a fun offense to watch? Next year, I hope we’re all saying the same thing about our young starting pitchers.
Aaron Civale going from CLE to TB. A good hitting AAA first baseman going back to CLE.
Civale is potentially a really good mid-rotation get for the Rays, and even has 2 more years of team control after this season (years 2 and 3 of arbitration).
Is that not a price the Reds could or would match, for Civale? That seems fairly modest to me…
This is so disappointing. Looks to be the same oh Reds.
The first basemen the Rays gave up is hitting .238 with 11 home runs in AAA.
You can’t look at just one year of a players numbers without checking in on why he is having those numbers. Do we know if he is injured? Trying a new approach? New coach? I understand your frustration though with nothing getting done on the trade front… yet.
It would be the equivalent of trading CES for him. No thanks.
This is what I am talking about. Quit being nervous and get some relievers at least. We have plenty of Infield prospects that would be just as good or better in trade. I feel like we could have even beat some of the other reliever trades I have seen go down so far. We may be seeing Krall’s Flaw. He is good at getting prospects but when he has extra of them, he won’t pull the trigger.
Maybe the team really isn’t giving him extended purse strings/budget? He seems to be the kind of ‘team player’ who wouldn’t diss the hand that feeds him.
So, the comp for this trade would be CES for Civale. Civale is having a career-best year, but doesn’t have a good track record for availability. So, it really comes down to whether the Reds think they are better off with 6+ years of CES or 2+ years of Civale.
6+ years of CES. I would have been very disappointed if we made that trade.
I agree, Civale almost seems assured to regress back to a middle or back of the rotation starter. Just not the long term fit we need.
At the risk of being obvious, it’s very probable that Cleveland would have given a list of players they would have have considered an ample return for Civale. We don’t know whom we would have had to give up, so I’m not assuming that Krall has made a mistake. He’s done very well so far and we wouldn’t be where we are without him.
Civale’s K-rate has dropped from 9.1/IP in 2022 to 6.8 this year, and his BB rate is up .6 from last year. Not good trends, and Cleveland is second to none at developing pitching. Cleveland’s wanting to trade him, in itself, gives me pause about Civale.
Would you guys be willing to part with CES and more? Because the Rays guys was top 40 in MLB according to MLB and Fangraphs. CES is 85.
In his prime (28), controllable pitcher thru 2025, Civale has now left the building and going to Tampa for the #37 overall prospect.
Wow…would have liked to land him.
Marte is 16 from this list
Arroyo is 27
Collier is 54
I would have pulled the trigger on Arroyo.
Tampa set the market.
The Reds have the prospects to get a deal done for controllable pitching.
Now it’s time to act!
The time to act was a month ago so they didn’t need to keep using the bullpen to pitch most of the innings Weaver was supposed to be pitching, but now would also be a good time to act.
J – did you see trades happening a month ago, other than Chapman? No, because the market was overpriced then due to a very small number of teams with players available. Said teams shoot for the moon early, until the market materializes close to the deadline. It happens the same way every year. Teams don’t lower their prices til the last week.
ATH,
What’s your evidence that the prices are “too high” or that teams “lower their prices” as the deadlines approach? As I recall, the Reds waited until basically the last minute last year to trade most of the guys they were hoping to trade, and actually did quite well in those trades. Krall is now considered a genius for the trades he was able to pull at the deadline, and he was a SELLER. With Mahle, for example, they got the Twins’ #7, #18, and and #23 prospects. That was in exchange for a guy who was only signed for one more year and had an ERA of 4.40. Of course we know in hindsight that the Reds won the trade by a million miles, but even at the time it looked like the Twins were pretty desperate and gave up more than they probably should. If the Reds make that kind of deal today — give up those three types of prospects for a guy with a 4.40 ERA and just one year remaining on his contract — I’m going to be disappointed in Krall. I’d say “Seriously? You couldn’t have gotten that same deal a month ago?”
By contrast, the one example we have an actual deal that happened a month ago in real life was Chapman, and that looked like a good deal for the buyer.
I know all the buyers will say they “can’t find a good deal” when they don’t make trades a month before the deadline, but an even more likely scenario is that they just don’t feel any pressure to make deals because the deadline is still a month off and they want to be more certain they’re actually going to be buyers that year. After all, they don’t want to be stuck with someone’s $6 million salary and then at the trade deadline discover they’re basically out of the race.
If you’re afraid to make a deal because you’re afraid you’ll be stuck with a salary you won’t want to pay, what are you going to say when you explain it to the fans? Are you going to say “there was a reasonable deal offered to us, and it would have improved the team, but we didn’t want to get stuck with the salary if things don’t pan out for us, so we passed.” Of course not. You’re going to say “there aren’t any good deals now. The prices are all too high.”
Don’t believe the PR. Deals could have been made.
J – Evidence – Just reading respective GM comments starting a month before the deadline, this year and every year. They all pretty much say there is a premium if you want to buy early, due in large part to limited supply. And then look at when trades occur, not early that’s for sure. It’s always the last week, because most teams won’t commit to buying or selling until real close to the deadline. Look at the Cubs – everyone had them pegged as a seller – now they look like a buyer. Lots of analysts had the Padres selling – nope. Red Sox maybe selling – nope. Guardians – toeing the line.
ATH,
Ever notice it’s only the potential buyers who say the prices are too high? The sellers never say “my asking price is really high because the deadline is so far off.” Or “I expected to get more for X, but the prices got so low as the deadline approached, I had to just take whatever I could get.” We only hear about these alleged unreasonably high prices from the GMs who could be buyers a month before the deadline but don’t make deals.
I think some of these prices go up as the deadline nears. As noted below, the trades today seem wildly inconsistent, with some seeming like good deals for buyers and others good deals for sellers. I’m sure the same would have been true for trades a month ago, but the GMs didn’t feel any pressure to do them. It’s always easier to do nothing than something.
>VaRedsFan…I agree with you. I would have gladly traded either Arroyo or Collier/Stewart for a chance to add a very good major league starting pitcher with two years of club control left. I mean, think about it…where are those players going to go in Cincinnati? Barring a catastrophic injury Arroyo or Collier/Stewart (trade one, keep the other) have little to no future with the parent club. Trading one of these players would NOT mortgage the teams future. Frustrating to say the least.
Disagree – frustrating is to say the most. To say the least, this is a good deal to pass on. All lower level MiLB players have a huge future on the Reds. There’s very rarely such a thing as being blocked – the Reds worst recent example is Suarez blocking India and Senzel – was that a good or bad thing?
Arroyo, Collier and Stewart are years away from being MLB ready, and if sooner, that means they push somebody else out of the way.
I might trade Arroyo for Civale, which seems the best comparison, but probably not.
Greenmtred’s comment above is correct – Krall likely had the required list and said no – no problem with that.
Their better move is for LHRP, and those will cost much less in any event.
I hope you guys realize that Arroyo in his age 19 season is playing at High-A, or a level higher than Elly De La Cruz reached in his age 19 season. Arroyo also has much better K and BB rates than EDLC had at that age at a lower level.
Arroyo started out slowly this season as one of the very youngest guys in the Midwest League, but had an OPS in June of .862 and in July of .833. He does not have EDLC’s offensive ceiling (virtually nobody does), but he is also thought to have the best shortstop glove in the entire system.
I’d rather have Arroyo’s future than that of Civale, whose strikeout rate has fallen from 9.1 last year to 6.8 this year. If Cleveland is ditching a pitcher, buyer beware.
Arroyo is probably the trade bait the Reds are dangling. He is the best defensive ranked SS, but not anywhere near as good offensively as Marte. I would NOT trade Collier. First off, they will be trading low on him because of his numbers (yet we know he is one of the youngest players in the league he is currently playing). He has too much potential unless he is a key cog in getting back a young, controllable ace type. Who knows? Or the Reds just won’t do anything major. I would like to see them get a couple relievers (lefty and stud righty).
The Reds are now in the final stages of considering the pros and cons of seriously thinking about whether to get serious about possibly looking at a few trade options. But still no sense of urgency because it’s still the middle of the day.
It’s too late now. The Reds had their chances to acquire a starter but passed. Yonny Chorinos could have been chosen off waivers, costing the Reds nothing in return. Aaron Civale was traded for what is the equivilent of Arroyo or Stewart, but again the Reds did nothing. I suppose the plan now is to wait for Greene to return mid/late August and hope the team is still in contention. I fear we will not have Lodolo back at all this season, unless for a start or two in mid September.
Bingo
It’s possible that Cleveland wanted the guy they got, isn’t it? For all we know, the Reds offered Arroyo. It takes two to tango.
I’m not sure this team needs to make a move. Has anyone looked at our starting pitching since the All Star break. It’s been outstanding. It seems to me it’s going to carry us into August when we get one if not two of our best starters back. Tough to blame the Reds for not making knee-jerk decisions. Right now there is no reason to move out of the rotation, anyone but Weaver, and we have at least two guys that are gonna be back in less than a month.
I’d bust up our pipeline a little bit and/or throw-in India for Lane Thomas and Kyle Finnegan. Probably have to trade Freidl in the off season or something, but Thomas is really maturing plus 2 more years of control
I don’t think you’re getting Thomas (3.0 bWAR) and Finnegan (0.9 bWAR) for India (0.9 bWAR).
India + prospects. I didn’t write it very well.
Thomas has a 1.027 ops lifetime in GABP. Watching that series in DC, it seemed like their OF is twice the size of ours
I would be surprised if India interested them though. They are not gaining much time in the swap of a 2 year guy for a 3 year guy. I would bet they will mostly want 5 yrs of control + for any guys going their way, just based on how far they are from competing.
I wonder how much value Jonathon India even has any more. He is a poor defensive second basemen and hasn’t hit for awhile now. I don’t see him being a center piece of any trade.
I’m curious where you guys think we will be at this time tomorrow?
A. The Reds acquire a front line Starting Pitcher
B. The Reds acquire a couple of solid relievers
C. The Reds make multiple trades that will have a significant impact on the Reds play off hopes
D. The Reds make no trades, but report they were very close to making a trade, but the asking price was just too high.
D. And I’m okay with that. Would prefer a B scenario with just one reliever who is a clear upgrade.
A and C are going to be too high a price for what seems to be a bonus season of the playoff window that should be open for a few more years at least.
Lorenzen still out there …
I see the Reds window being about four years, counting this one. That being the case, I sure wouldn’t waste 25% of that window,
depending on a couple of guys who are hurt more often than not.
I know a lot of folks here think the Reds have a larger window, but when all of this years rookies become arb eligible, the Reds are likely to go back into rebuild mode. If Elly becomes the player we all hope he will become, he will likely command a salary of a few hundred million dollars. The Reds won’t pay that, nor should they I guess.
I will go with option D, V4L. I am starting to wonder if the Reds just see there is no reason to trade for starting pitchers. They will be getting Greene back in August followed up by Lodolo. I wonder if it would make sense to slide Lodolo into a lefty relief role to end the season. This would put less strain on him and then he could build up again during the offseason. I also see option D as being a choice if Krall is under restrictions we don’t know about. REMEMBER who owns the team? He wants to cut salaries. Why would a cheapskate suddenly change?
D seems the most likely to me, but neither A nor B would surprise me. Another option–that the Reds get one relief pitcher seems possible as well.
D, all the way
I’m guessing ‘B’.
The best bats are gone (I wanted Mark Canha) and the price of starting pitching is probably just too high. But it could always drop at 5:45 pm!
B or D; one LHP reliever would help a lot. I see a 5- to 6-year window opening and longer if the team doesn’t sell off assets at a discounted valuation trying to turn a top 10 MLB team into a top 1 or 2 team by acquiring a mid/backend-rotation starter to cover about 3-4 weeks of the season. I just see a lot of advantages there. It would take a trade for both Snell and Hader to make this team a lot better and I doubt the Padres plan to make either available unless they are truly overwhelmed.
I’ll add an Option E – the Reds may well trade some of the bench players, from the big league roster or at AAA. They will need the 40-man roster space soon and can net a few more low A/rookie prospects if they move now without weakening their roster.
Brewers just lost Jake Cousins trying to pass waivers removing him from their 40 man.
So they are probably swinging another trade. If they add a decent bat, then I hope the Reds can match with a decent bullpen arm, at least.
They acquired Mark Canha from the Mets
Cubs acquire Jeimer Candelario
Man the prospect prices on these trades seems all over the place. A first baseman struggling in AAA nets Aaron Civale who still has 2 years of control left. But Mark Canha who is essentially a 2 month rental requires a young pitcher doing very well in AA.
One would think there would be some sense in the value applied to years of control remaining.
Now that every other team contending for the playoffs has made at least one deal to improve their chances, the Reds are almost ready to get serious about thinking very hard about the distinct possibility of perhaps doing something. But it’s still light outside, so there’s no urgency yet. Can’t be too hasty about these things.
They still have a day. No rush. There will be tons of players to trade for them, right?