Manager David Bell provided updates on both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo prior to the game with the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday afternoon. Bell told the assembled media that Greene was on track to return “sometime in August” – first reported by Jeremy Rauch of Fox 19. Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer further noted that Lodolo would be later than Greene in his return, but it was possible that he could be back in August. Both pitchers are throwing out in Arizona at this point in time.

What the Cincinnati Reds do between now and then will be interesting. As was reported on Friday afternoon, the club has been calling around the league and inquiring about starting pitchers. With a rotation of Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, and Luke Weaver as things sit right now – the team could use an upgrade.

There’s also the thing about hoping…. the Reds are hoping that things go as expected and both Greene and Lodolo can return. Given that neither is trying to overcome an arm injury, it’s helpful, but you don’t know that they’ll be back until they actually get back. Just look at Tony Santillan as an example for that. He missed the second half of 2022 with a back injury, and that kept him from being ready to start the season on time. But after starting a rehab stint he then suffered from both a knee and hamstring injury that delayed his return another two-and-a-half months.

Bell was not overly specific with when Greene could return within the month of August. There’s a pretty big difference between being able to return the first week in August and the final week of August. It’s probably not the final days of the month given that Lodolo is “behind” Greene’s schedule and it was reported he could potentially be back in August, too – but still, having a little bit closer of a window than “August” would be nice to hear.

80 Responses

  1. Doc

    I still play 2023 as a shakeout or sorting year, not a serious contender kind of year.

    1. Is Abbott going to be a repeat of Ashcraft (five superb outings and then a huge tailspin) or was his last outing an aberration on the radar?

    2. Will Greene and Lodolo be back and be effective?

    3. The youngsters have had back to back very poor offensive games. Is it a bit of reverting to the mean, or just overmatched by dominant pitching performances? How do they handle and bounce back from the adversity?

    Before Krall places his bets, he needs to know what he has over the long cycles in a baseball season. Gaining a rental SP at the expense of top prospects is not worth it for 2023, in my opinion, as long as the Reds are more than 1 SP away, which is what they would be if the above three points all fall unfavorably in the second half.

    • SlippinJimmy

      I agree. I mean if the Reds could’ve (or can) make a sensible trade, then yeah, let’s do it. But as we’re seeing, even a Reds playoff team does not appear capable of getting past Milwaukee. A single SP isn’t going to “make” this team. They need more pieces, and these pieces need time.

      Where did the 6, 7, 8 runs per game go?

    • Bill

      I agree I don’t think they are a serious contender, but could sneak into the playoffs and make some noise. I do think the timeline has been accelerated and next year if they avoid injuries they are a SP away from contender status. I think the 2010 team is a good comparison. They were a good young team but never recovered from facing Roy Halladay in game 1

      The experience of fighting for a playoff spot and even making it in would be huge for the next few years.

  2. Rob

    I do think there seems to be some back sliding toward the mean. I do question whether Friedl is a 310 hitter, Steer is a 285 hitter, India 275, and Votto 260, or whether each is maybe 20-30 points lower. India (and others on the team) are getting beat to death by sliders off the plate. I lack the baseball knowledge to understand why you cant make the adjustment over “weeks”. Hit to right center or move closer to the plate, or whatever.

    This raises the question of whether this team is good enough to be a playoff contender. I however think the answer remains Yes and that we need to shore up the pitching for the last 70 games. Even if we or some other team are 5 games out at the end of July, that is certainly very much still in the race. The alternative of not trying to improve, or just running out young guys the last 2 months is revolting to me. We are there. No guarantees. Make the trades, improve the team, and lets hope we are as good as we think we are after 90 games. There are no real downsides. We have a overflowing pipeline.

    • SlippinJimmy

      Just my personal opinion, but if you’re gonna trade India–even if for a future prospect–I think you might want to do that like 3 or 4 weeks ago, before he destroys his value.

      Despite the HRs, his average is in freefall, and he seems to *frequently* make the last out of games, or make outs in big moments. His future in Cincy appears limited.

      Cut him loose for maximum return asap. His plate production can be replaced.

  3. LDS

    Back in August? I’ll believe it when I see it. Maybe they will be. Will they be effective? Who knows? The key point is the Reds need to quit thinking they’re winning it this year and keep to the rebuild. Don’t trade for anyone that doesn’t have multiple years of control left, or is over 30, or isn’t willing to sign a reasonably team friendly deal for multiple years. That leaves out the White Sox trio. Krall needs to be conservative and safeguard his accumulating prospect capital.

  4. Indy Red Man

    I don’t think a solid reliever would cost much or even Giolito for that matter. There are some options besides nothing or dealing away top prospects. What if they got Giolito and he likes the Reds? They have an exciting young core.

    If they get swept then I might back off, but Milw is obviously not that good and they have to play Atlanta 6, Philly 6, and Miami 7. If they get swept though? Thats 2-8 vs Milwaukee and thats hard to shake off mentally.

    • Daytonnati

      Exactly. The Reds may not be a Big Picture serious contender, but they can certainly win the division this year. Getting to the playoffs as division champ versus a WC is a confidence builder and a benchmark for next year. Baby steps, maybe, but steps, nevertheless.

    • JayTheRed

      Plus, there are 3 more games later this month against the Brewers.

  5. JB WV

    Agree with the sentiment above. The only trade they should make would be position player(s) for young, close to MLB starter, which probably plays better in the off season. The excitement of contending now, for a division title but getting road blocked by Atlanta later, isn’t worth damaging the farm.

    • Indy Red Man

      Baseball is weird though….didn’t Seattle lost 1st round the year they won 109 games or whatever? Just making the playoffs is a valuable experience for a young team! Even if they can’t win the division the other wildcard options are young overachievers like Arizona, SF, Miami, etc that are not much different then the Reds. Its right there for them if they don’t fall off a ledge.

      • JB WV

        Agree, just go with what you’ve got this year and let it play out. If they make the playoffs as just a wild card it isn’t worth making a significant trade right now. Some of the comments above about rookies coming back to earth are spot on to me.

    • MFG

      Agree JB, we seem to be a year or so ahead of schedule. Just stay the course and do not trade away any future stars. We have a full house in the infield now and with more talent in the minors. Senzel, Newman and Cassali seem to be the ones to be moved but do they have value?

    • JayTheRed

      Sorry Atlanta is almost always good. Every single year. You can’t hope they are going to get worse. Not going to happen their leadership over there in Atlanta is just lights out good.

  6. BK

    The Reds website list “early August” as Greene’s expected return. It says he’s throwing off the mound and the next progression will be a rehab assignment.

  7. Stock

    Great post Doc.

    Interesting comment about the offense. Are they really as good as they were in the month prior to Miley shutting them down? Here is my take:

    C: Stephenson is better than he has been YTD and I think better than he was in June.
    1B Steer: I love his approach. I think his .905 OPS in June is realistic. Afterall, his OPS in May was .945. His floor is probably .850 but .900 is realistic.
    1B Votto: The youthful Joey Votto can only last so long. I don’t really expect an OPS of 1 for the season. But I do think .900 is possible if he can stay healthy.
    2B India: I am hoping he will be better than he was in June. The Reds were spectacular in June dispite India not because of India.
    3B EDLC: I think he is actually at his floor for all stats other than BABIP. His OPS in 2024 should be greater than his current .861 OPS. The question is will it be better in the second half. By spending a month on the DL before arriving to Louisville he can probably avoid hitting the rookie wall many hit. I think an OPS between .800 and .850 is realistic and he should be able to continue to keep his current pace.
    SS McLain: I was surprised at the quick rise of McLain this year and his last 9 games have me concerned May and June were just a matter of the league figuring out how to pitch to him. His power seems to have disappeared and he is living on his nice BB%. The McLain of the next 3 months will be critical.
    LF Fraley/Newman: Nothing Fraley has done the last 2+ years has given me any indication he can’t pound RHP. Nothing he has done has convinced me he can hit LHP. Great platoon and the results should continue.
    CF Friedl: Friedl is the most guts and guile player I have seen since Pete Rose. He just does not quit. He is an intelligent baseball player and takes what teams give him. He keeps teams honest because he has incorporated bunting into his game.
    His OPS since moving to leadoff is .408. This should continue just like it did for Rose for 20 years. If Billy Hamilton had Friedl’s intelligence and work ethic he would be a hall of famer. Billy Hamilton never seriously worked on bunting. He should have. He would still be playing right now.
    RF Benson/Senzel: I have been excited about Benson from day one. I am a believer of his performance in AAA in 2022 and his performance in May. Senzel crushes LHP so this is a great platoon.

    In short 6 of the 9 offensive positions should continue as they have in June or potentially better. Friedl may have been a surprise this year but I think he can continue as is also. Votto is uncertain. With health and rest and maybe sitting vs many LHP maybe he can continue to perform. McLain is the big question mark to me.

    • Optimist

      Agree here Stock, and the other advantage they have is that none of these guys are gaping holes in the lineup as we saw all too much in the past few years. Even if some regress, or simply cool off, it’s doubtful they all go into a funk together, and it will remain difficult for opposing teams to pitch around spots in the lineup.

      I’m more concerned with one of them trying to play thru a nagging injury, but they also have more MLB depth in AAA than in years past.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      Newman has played 2 games in LF, none since 2019. Nothing there.

      Bell needs to drop his experiment of making an India a 3 hole or 5 hole hitter. Either put him where most his success has come, leadoff (That can open up the right side for Friedl), or 8 or 9. Or, even bench India for a while. It’s obvious that he’s not right in his head.

      Not that Bell is entirely at fault here. India is the one standing in the batter’s box, with the bat, swinging, getting outs. But, the manager is in charge of putting players in positions to be successful. And. . .

      • Stock

        I have a different view here. Bell has done an incredible job of having these player perform as a team with a team first attitude. This is rare in sports these days and is part of the reason this team is so exciting.

        India is a very important piece of this team first attitude. I think Bell does not want to dent this attitude and therefore has India third in the lineup when he probably should be hitting 9th.

        The beauty of this lineup though is there are no weak links and no players who are just way better than others. Benson bats 9th but he is one of the best players on the team (per the stats).

        The four weakest links in the lineup in my eyes are McLain, India, Votto and Stephenson.
        Stephenson has been pushed back to 7th or 8th in the lineup. But he is a good clutch hitter. Interesting problem.

        Votto may be one of the weaker links in my eyes but he is leading the team in OPS. Not bad for a weak link.

        India has been receiving a lot of heat but if he were creating results similar to his rookie season (.835 OPS) it is safe to say people would be praising him. But compare his underlying stats from the two years:

        K%: Rookie:22.3%, 2023: 19.6%
        Avg Exit Velocity: Rookie: 87.6 mph, 2023: 89.5 mph
        BABIP: Rookie: .326 2023: .279

        He is hitting the ball harder and more often. They will start to drop in for hits.

        McLain is the players should be concerned with. Is he a good fit for the 2 hole? I say yes because he really works the count. Makes a pitcher throw more pitches than they want. This helps the team especially late in games.

        I just think the weak links in this offense are not really weak links. They are just not as good as the other 5 starters.

      • Stock

        As for Newman I should have been more clear. Those are the two offensive players involved in the platoon. Steer is playing LF vs. LHSP. It is a learning process for Steer but he looked pretty good last night.

    • TR

      Elly De La Cruz, at this point in his career, should not bat in the cleanup position. With his blazing speed, he should be in the leadoff position and Friedl, with his ability to lay down a bunt, should hit second. This would maximize the speed of Elly and Friedl and bring them to the plate most often in a game. McLain, also with speed, should bat third with Steer or Encarnacion-Strand hitting cleanup. Wil Benson, also a speedster, should be moved up in the batting order.

      • Daytonnati

        I move him to 3rd, just to know he gets a shot in the first inning every game. I would like to see Friedl, McLain, Elly, Steer

      • Stock

        Let me see if I get this right. Place EDLC in the leadoff to take advantage of his speed. Then bat Friedl 2nd so he can bunt EDLC to second. I don’t understand that logic.

        Conversely you can bat Friedl first since he gets on base more than EDLC. Then use Friedl’s speed so he can steal 2B.

  8. Optimist

    They’re absolutely a playoff contender. As for pennant or WS, there’s the true old cliche that pitching wins short series. Too many ifs remain on that issue, but young pitchers can run hot and cold much more so than veterans.

    Sure, they should go for it right now as far as available trades, but I still think they’ll get more value in relievers than a starter, unless they can find a non-rental starter at a fair price in prospects and MLB roster talent, “fair price” being multiple prospects after the top 15. Don’t move the higher value ones.

    Not at all concerned about the “Milw has their number” concern – too many rookies for that to matter – they don’t know better. Besides, Milw has far more issues than the Reds in finishing off this season.

    • Jim Walker

      +500. My concern is that the bullpen is going to implode if they don’t come up with a couple of starting guys who can push into and hopefully through the 6th inning with regularity.

      And yes, they may need to trade a position player off the MLB roster in one of these deals. That’s OK because they have the position depth to cover it ready at AAA. And if such a trade also makes them younger and further from a key guy being eligible for arbitration, it fits right in with Krall’s development from within sustainment scheme.

      As for next year, teams can target window years; but, they cannot determine when they actually will be in a position to contend for the postseason. The Reds chances next year may not be as good as the chance right now even if the 2024 Reds are better than the 2023 Reds.

      • Optimist

        True enough Jim, but I think they’ll be very good next year and a major disappointment if they don’t clearly contend for a wild card. The really odd position is they may well contend for the wild card this season, considering how everyone thought the NL central was awful. The Dodgers should be fine, and the Braves are running away, but everyone else has already, or could falter badly.

      • Daytonnati

        I’m with you, Jim. I think back to the Bengals improbable run two years ago. I think everyone was so overjoyed with finally winning a playoff game that that was enough. But if the family had shored up the OL at some point during the season, I think the Bengals probably win the Super Bowl. The Reds pitching is “their” OL. If they can fix it in the next couple of weeks, who knows?

  9. Steve Schoenbaechler

    Quit playing Chicken Little. Geez. We get shutout, and the sky is simply falling. Like the good teams, the great teams, never get shutout during the season. Please. For a team whose offense is in the top 6 in every important offensive category in the NL, come see me when we drop to 12th or even 10th. Then, there is cause for alarm.

    The concern is pitching. I still don’t like what I hear. Greene August? Is that August 1 or August 31? If the latter, you might as well make the September.

    Then, with Lodolo, if I recall correctly, wasn’t there something that for teams who are in the playoffs, they have to choose players who were on their active roster as of Sept. 1, or something like that, which could leave Lodolo out, which could press us even more to find a starting pitcher just for the playoffs?

    • Optimist

      There won’t be a roster issue with Lodolo at any level of the playoffs – if he’s ready to go, he’ll go. The series are short enough, and with enough off days that they can make do as needed.

      The problem will be if he gets shut down until next season.

      But, yeah, these past 2 games are barely blips – the pitching from here out is the issue. Hard to see an offensive collapse.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Agreed. And, even then, people need to remember exactly what I’m told when Bell does pull a bonehead blunder. . .

        Just imagine where this team was suppose to be at the beginning of the season? Man, just having 3 months of winning baseball again has felt good. And, seeing that our long term future is looking pretty good, I am happy.

        Of course, I hope we can hold out. But, even if we don’t, Lord, I am very happy with how this team has done this year, even with Bell’s boneheads moves.

    • Stock

      Lodolo is on the ML roster. Just on the DL. Since he is on the ML roster he is elgible for the postseason, if healthy.

  10. Jim Walker

    When I saw the “sometime in August” for Greene quote from Bell followed by Lodolo being a little later, my first thought was of Dorothy singing “Somewhere Over the Rainbow” in The Wizard of Oz.

    I hope both guys are back and up to snuff by Labor Day; but, I am not counting on it.

    The Reds need to go out and get a couple of guys to bridge the gap. As the saying goes, a team can never have too much pitching. If they bring guys in and Greene/ Lodolo do make it back this year, the Reds will find a way to use all the effective arms they have.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      I have to agree. Play smart with the players and prospects, don’t want to ruin our future by giving it up. Like you said, just a couple of pitchers to bridge the gap.

      • Brian Rutherford

        Agree also but what will the cost be? I keep thinking of what the Reds got for Tyler Mahle and Tyler Naquin and shudder to think what they might have to give up for Lorenzen or Giolito.

  11. Votto4life

    What are the odds the Reds will be in 1st place and 9 games over .500 at the all star game next season. I say very little.

    The rookies are going to regress, there will be key injuries and the NL Central opponents will likely be much better. To let this opportunity pass by for a future that may never come would be absolutely foolish.

    The Reds competitive window opened the day Elly was called up. We have five years to win a championship. After that, this group of rookies move on to greener pastures. Why waste 20% of your competitive window? Only to keep a player in A ball who may never see the major? It’s foolish.

    The same people who are saying “Stick with the plan” are the same ones who kept saying the Reds had enough pitching coming into the season.

    If the Reds don’t go all out to win in 2023, it will be something all of us will look back on with regret.

    • Brian Rutherford

      I understand your comment. What facts are you using to back up the rookies are going to regress? The are many situations where good player get even better as they get used to all of the things that make MLB so much different from the minors.

      The travel, constant press, massive fan engagement and online scrutiny are just a few of the things that are new.

      I’m not saying you are wrong, I just haven’t seen anything from this group that points to regression instead of learning and getting better.

      • Votto4life

        It’s quite common for Rookies to regress. That is why they call it the sophomore jinx. We don’t have to look far for examples. Look at India and Stephenson’s sophomore seasons. Sure, they were injuried, but McClain and Elly are subject to injuries as well.

        If a good rookie season was predictive of a good career, Joe Charboneau would be in the Hall of Fame.

  12. Stock

    What should the Reds do to bridge the gap for Greene and Lodolo? Will a rotation of Ashcraft, Abbott, Lively, Williamson and Weaver get them to the playoffs? As mentioned by Jim Walker above, w

    ill this rotation create a lot of over-worked arms in the bullpen?

    Other questions: Should the Reds pursue a playoff spot in 2023 by trading prospects? If yes how many prospects and what is the quality worth giving up because I think everyone here puts 2025-2030 competitiveness above 2023 competitiveness? Can you make acquisitions in July that will not limit competitiveness in 2025?

    I think the current rotation limits their chance of making the playoffs. I agree with Jim Walker in that this rotation will place a strain on the bullpen also. These are two reasons that if the price is right the Reds should trade for a SP or even two. The next question is what is a good price? Scherzer for Austin Hendrick works for me. Giolito for Marte, CES and Arroyo does not. We need something in between that would provide a fair price.

    • Brian Rutherford

      As shown by whet the Reds got in return for Tyler Mahle last year, I feel like too many teams will think they are still in it and the cost for available arms will be prohibitive.

      I hope I am wrong but I stand in the camp that this year is perfect for finding out what you have now and what might be needed for the future. If they can add pitching through free agency and not sacrifice organizational depth in the minor leagues, I feel they should consider that.

      I would love for them to be serious about trying to sign either of the 2 fantastic SP coming from the Japanese league next season.

    • LDS

      Trading for Giolito makes ZERO sense. Prospect capital, especially top 10 for a 2-3 month rental makes absolutely no sense. There’s little chance the Reds will sign him as an FA. And the Reds are not mentally ready for the post season as the last two games against Milwaukee has demonstrated. It’s just like the playoff series against Atlanta. However, if the Reds are going to make a move, make it now. Waiting for the trade deadline could easily be too late. Personally, lesser/cheaper pitchers make more sense.

      • Brian Rutherford

        100% agree on Giolito as the cost in prospects will just be too high when competing against teams like the Dodgers for his services.

        I’m not ready to say they aren’t mentally ready for the post season just yet. Two bad games again one great pitcher don’t make a trend. Sometimes a guy just has your number. I think about how the Reds have destroyed Adam Wainright over the years including when they were terrible.

        The way they have played so far this year I think they have have ome rope to play with. Just my opinion.

      • Jim Walker

        I agree with making the moves ASAP. The deadline could be too late.

        One way a team gets ready for the stress of the postseason is to be required to play the last couple of months in playoff mode every day just to get in. Recall that wildcard teams coming into the postseason under a full head of steam from tight races to qualify and then blowing through the seeded teams is what led to making it harder for the wildcard teams to advance.

      • LDS

        Agree Jim, but Bell has shown no signs that he knows how to instill that attitude. An organization has to display that mindset from top to bottom and at this point, I’m not seeing it.

      • BK

        This is really the problem for buyers at the trade deadline…sellers know they get the best deal by waiting as they field competing offers. It takes at least two teams to make a deal.

      • Jim Walker

        @LDS, I see some hints that Bell is starting to feel the pressure of the situation and trying to respond.

        He hung tough in that middle game at Milwaukee last week and ended up with a W after all seemed lost early. And he did it in a way that allowed him to keep the team in the game the next day, the 1-0 loss, down to the last out.

        He has moved India around in the order, dropping him to 5th last night and just as significantly, I think not only moving Fraley to 3rd but also slotting him as the DH instead with Steer in LF. That could be a prequel to the arrival of CES as the trio of McLain, EDLC, and CES worked back to back to back at AAA from the arrival of CES in mid to late April until McLain’s promotion in late May.

        Also, previously Bell had bitten the bullet several times and sat out Stephenson in favor of Steer at DH on days when TS was not catching.

        Bell’s success or lack of it in rising to the occasion could turn out to be the pivot point of whether he returns. So, either way, Krall forcing the situation is a good thing.

  13. Stock

    If the Reds trade for a SP they should do so by considering their long term pitching needs.

    Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott seem set for the next 5 years.

    Hard to not think that Phillips, Lowder and Petty will not be SP at some point but that is 7 pitchers for 5 spots.

    Aguiar, Boyle, Acuna, Ty Floyd, Lyon Richardson, Hunter Parks, Javi Rivera and Chris McElvain are also potential SP. The Reds need to consider this depth of pitching when making trades.

    They also need to protect and not trade their core hitters until the second wave of hitters is ready. They should also try to avoid trading the second wave of hitters.

    1st Wave: Stephenson, Steer, CES, India, McLain, EDLC, Marte, Fraley, Friedl and Benson. This is 10 players for 9 positions. This is a good core for 2024 – 2027

    2nd Wave: Collier, Ricardo Cabrera, Edwin Arroyo, Hector Rodriguez, Carlos Jorge, Leonardo Balcazar, Alfredo Duno, Sal Stewart, Esmith Pineda, Sammy Stafura and Cole Schoenwetter (also Gaeckle if signed). This is a second wave of 11 – 12 hitters. Every position is covered.

    If the Reds can make a trade for a pitcher today and avoid both sets of pitchers and both sets of hitters they consider doing so. Maybe there are players not on these lists that some may think should be added. I would love to hear varying opinions.

    • Votto4life

      Edwin Arroyo is a player the Reds could use to acquire a starting pitcher. Even a rental. Arroyo is talented, but is blocked by young players who are even better. Of Course, no team is going in by to give up a good starting pitcher for Arroyo alone, but he could be the center piece in a trade.

      Prospects either make your team better by playing or by being used as a trade chip. When the Reds started stock piling shortstops it’s was pretty much understood that one’s who were not staring at the big league level would either change positions or be used for trading purposes.

      On the other hand…

      I do like your wave analogy. Perhaps, the Reds will keep Edwin Arroyo knowing there is simply no way they will be keeping Elly long term.

      It would make sense. I can’t see the Reds offering EDLC a half a billion dollars to spend his entire career in Cincinnati. The Reds will need a SS in five years when Elly is playing in LA or NY. Perhaps that is why they won’t trade Arroyo.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Arroyo is too far away to get any kind of MLB ready pitcher.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      Well, you mentioned practically everyone that other teams would want that we have. So, I don’t see where we could make a trade with anyone.

  14. LDS

    Again, move India, Senzel, and Newman for pitching/pitching prospects. McLain should be at 2nd and EDLC at SS. Move Steer to 3rd until such time as Marte proves he can earn the position. Rotate CES/Votto at 1st/DH. And hopefully, Votto mans up and announces his intent to retire at season end.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      Again, you just can’t trade scrubs for shrimp. You would be lucky to get someone equivalent to the 2nd string SS at Dayton for India.

      If you want something, you have to give up something. For example, if you want a pitching prospect, you have to give up someone like Marte or Collier, at minimum.

      If you try to make these prize pieces, then the other team is going to ask, “Then why aren’t you keeping them?”, and back away.

      • LDS

        I’d give up Marte before Collier, but not both.

  15. Stock

    I looked at SP I would not mind the Reds acquiring this month My first group of pitchers included pitchers with 1.5 – 5.5 years of control.

    There are two pitchers I like (assuming Scherzer is out because the ask would be too much). I like Reid Detmers and Justin Steele. I went to the trade simulator and found their worth was Steele (64.2) and Detmers (61.8). Then I want to see what Reds prospects it would take to bring one of these two on board.

    Simulator trade: Steele (64.2) for Marte(22), CES (15.1), Jorge (7.8), Cabrera (7.0), Stewart (7.0) and Rodriguez (6.7). In a word: NO. Similar for Detmers NO.

    • Reds67

      Steele would be under team control until 27. Should a starting trade piece for him be another pitcher like Lodolo. Steele’s value is 64.2 while Lodolo’s is 29.1 a difference of 35.1. The next part of this trade is a little more tricky, Suzuki has a negative value of -17.4 and is owed 20m per year thru 2026. He has been a disappointment for the Cubs but I wonder how his bat would play in GABP. The Reds would still need to add player(s), Fraley would be the logical choice at 14.4. The net would still be 3.2 in Reds favor.

  16. Indy Red Man

    Somebody on RLN has mentioned lefty JP Sears with Oakland several times? I’ve haven’t seen him pitch, but he’s got a 3.18 era since May.
    He’s cheap and he’s 27.5 so he’s not exactly a young prospect either.
    Why not? Converting Williamson into a reliever for the rest of this season gives Bell alot more flexibility too. Bottom line is continuing to run Weaver out there is an insult to the players battling for the postseason and the fans that pay their salaries

    • Indy Red Man

      Also have my boy “All-Star” Michael Lorenzen. Can you believe he’s had 8 starts with 1 earnie or less? He’s been bombed in several others but the same is true with Ashcraft. Weaver can’t even get out the 1st without multiple runs.

      • Melvin

        Yeah. You never know with David Bell. It could mean Greene back on August 30th and Lodolo the 31st. 🙂

  17. Stock

    Second I looked at SP who will be FA in October: I like Stroman, Giolito and Snell.

    Potential trades:

    Giolito (10.6) for Allen (5.7), Confidan (3.0) and Almonte (2.5)
    Snell (8.6) for Allen and Confidan
    Stroman (6.4) for Allen and Quintana (1.2)

    I would do any of these three.

    Should the Reds double up?

    Giolito for Allen, Confidan and Siani (2.5) and
    Snell for Williamson (5.5) and Almonte


    Giolito for Allen, Confidan and Siani (2.5) and
    Stroman for Williamson (5.5) and Quintana


    Snell (8.6) for Allen and Confidan
    Stroman for Williamson (5.5) and Quintana

    I would do either of these trades either singly or doubled up. You can replace Quintana with Rece Hinds (1.5) if you feel Quintana is over rated on the simulator.

    • Indy Red Man

      SD has invested so much in this group that they’d have to really s the bed by August 1 to deal Snell imo. They are 6 back of the last wildcard which is alot, but talent wise they could do it easily. Idk? I trust Krall to make it happen

      • Stock

        I agree Indy. The next 2 weeks will determine if SD is in or out.

    • MBS

      The interesting thing you didn’t mention is that if Snell is “on the market” it would stand to reason that Hader would be also, since both are FA’s.

      That’s the 1, 2 combo that would have the biggest impact for this club imo. Our bullpen would have 2 Ace’s, and our rotation would have the veteran presence leading it.

      • Stock

        I agree MBS. I went to the trade simulator once you made your suggestion and Hader has a trade value of 2.9. This is too low but assuming it is correct then:

        Snell 8.6 and Hader (2.9) for Williamson, Allen and Siani.

        I would love this trade. First it really strengthens the team for the last 2 months.

        Second, it sends a message to the players: you have earned the right to be all in and the players will consider this when signing long term contracts.

        Third it involves zero players in the four cores I mentioned above.

      • Reds67

        It will be curious to see when teams think they are out of the race.
        A SD combination of Snell/Hader is interesting, I would also be interested in a Red Sox combination of James Paxton/ Kenley Jensen. The simulator has Snell(8.6)/Hader (2.9) valued at 11.5 and Paxton(7.6)/ Jensen(-1.6) at 6. Those number seem low but Jensen is the only one under contract after 23 (16m 24).

  18. Stock

    One more possibility. The Guardians need offense. The Reds need pitching.

    Guardians have Bieber, Quantrill, Bibee, Civale, McKenzie and Williams all ahead of Allen. Espino is only in AA but is a player worth pursuing.

    Logan Allen (13.1) and Daniel Espino (14.8) for CES (15.1), Carlos Jorge (7.8) and Jay Allen (5.7)

    I think Cleveland would need a little more but per the trade simulator it is fair.

    • BK

      Espino hasn’t pitched yet this year due to shoulder issues. Bieber just went on the IL, so he is likely out, too. Logan Allen is a possibility, but I suspect the Guardians will need him now that Bieber is hurt.

      • Stock

        I agree. I did not know Bieber was hurt.

  19. Kevin Patrick

    I wonder whether the Reds might be forced to trade Stephenson. I don’t think we have seen the best from him yet, and I also think his value is probably lower than it should be. Yet, of all the pieces the Reds have that I think they could live without the most…a catcher would be that thing…at least this year. I’m curious what he could bring back.

  20. Votto4life

    Shane Bieber was placed on the IL today with inflammation in his right shoulder. Have to think that crosses him off the Red’s shopping list.

    • Optimist

      For this season, absolutely. However, he’d be an interesting gamble for next season. A good salary coming to him thru arbitration, and the risk of injury delay, but unless the performance falls off a cliff, the extra 8-10m in salary is the difference between him and a Weaver/Minor 1 year deal.

      If they could take the salary off of Cleveland’s books and just give a lower level prospect or a AAAA pitcher from the Bats, they should do so.

      I’d expect the Yankees to get there first.

    • Melvin

      How was Gettysburg by the way? 🙂

      • Melvin

        Great. I’m glad for you. It’s an amazing place. 🙂

  21. Stock

    Back in 1975 and 1976 the Reds had a great offense and good starting pitching. But Sparky received the nickname Captain Hook because he started to use the bullpen in a way never done before. Captain Hook created a new era for baseball.

    In 1990 the Reds took it a step further. They won the World Series on the backs of the Nasty Boys (Myers, Dibble, Charlton). The Reds introduced a new era again. A deep and dominant bullpen can win the WS even if the rest of the team is not as strong.

    Kansas City took note and in 2015 they won a world series on the back of Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis.,

    Now teams seem to go to their bullpen in the 4th or 5th inning.

    With this idea in mind I present the following two trades:

    1. SD Blake Snell (8.6) and Josh Hader (2.9) for Carlos Jorge (7.8), Ariel Almonte (2.5) and Mike Siani (2.5).

    2. CWS Lucas Giolito (10.6) and Liam Hendricks (-4.3) for Jay Allen (5.7), Yerlin Confidan (3.0) and Nick Quintana (1.2)

    Hendricks is a risk. He had cancer and is on the DL right now with elbow inflamation. He is however, throwing again. He has a $15 million option for 2024 with a $15 million buyout.

    Assuming Hendricks is healthy a back end of the bullpen of Diaz, Hader and Hendricks would be fantastic.

    These four added to the current team would make for a pretty special team and quite possibly make them the favorite to win the WS in 2023.

    They send a message to the current players that they want to win. This makes it easier to sign players long term.

    One or two of these four may love the enthusiam of this team and sign a team friendly contract.

    And the only core prospect they lose is Jorge.

    • Hanawi

      I don’t think there is any way that combination would even get Snell from SD, much less Snell and Hader. Almonte and Siani having almost as much trade value as Hader would make me disregard that as having any value immediately.

      I wouldn’t give up Jorge, but I would give up some combination of Arroyo, Dunn, Hopkins, or Barrero for a starter.

    • Reds67

      I’ve always like Hendricks, but his contract might be a big risk. The Red Sox James Paxton and Kenley Jensen might be a cheaper option. Also while the bullpen can be improved we should remember that while the present 8 man bullpen is overworked they do have a 8.9 WAR on the season which is a great number. You should also remember that your trades are bringing in 4 new members to a 13 man group and you are trading none away. I’m not for sure about options but the Reds might have to cut just to get down to 13.

      Another pitcher that interest me is Drew Smyly Cubs. He is owed 8.5m in 24 and 10m in 25(2.5m buyout.) but that should lower his trade cost. He also might have enough value in those years to justify that contract.

  22. ptaylor2112

    Amir Garrett was just placed on waivers. He’s had control problems of late.

  23. JayTheRed

    Please stop dreaming about getting a pitcher that has a few years before free agency without giving up something top 10 prospect wise because it will never happen.

    If the Reds want a good starting pitcher with team control that has been good so far, it’s going to cost you something good in return.