The Cincinnati Reds offense went off, pounding out 16 hits on the day and were led by two home runs from Jonathan India. Washington couldn’t match the output and the Reds held on for an 8-4 win over the Nationals, picking up their 47th victory of the season.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (47-39) |
8 | 16 | 0 |
| Washington Nationals (34-51) |
4 | 7 | 1 |
| W: Kennedy (1-0) L: Corbin (5-10) SV: Sims (1) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Cincinnati Reds wasted little time in getting ahead of Patrick Corbin and the Nationals on Tuesday morning. Matt McLain doubled and then scored on a single by Jonathan India. Elly De La Cruz followed with a single of his own, and when the thrown went to third to try and get India – and it didn’t – De La Cruz took second. Spencer Steer then hit a pop up into shallow left center where it landed between three Nationals who were all just looking at each other, and India raced home to make it a 2-0 game.
In the top of the 3rd inning the Reds offense got moving again. Elly De La Cruz singled and stole second base – his 10th steal of the season – and then Spencer Steer walked. Nick Senzel drove them both in with a 3-run homer that made it 5-0.
After two hitless innings for Brett Kennedy, the Nationals got a leadoff double from CJ Abrams. He would move up to third on a ground out and then come around to score on a sacrifice fly to put Washington on the board. The Reds got that run back the next half-inning when Jonathan India crushed an 81 MPH slider from Patrick Corbin and sent it 421 feet into the seats in center to make it 6-1.
In the bottom of the 5th inning it was once again CJ Abrams causing problems for Brett Kennedy. Abrams doubled with two outs and then came around to score on a Derek Hill single to cut the Reds lead to 6-2. Cincinnati would get that run back in the top of the 6th inning when Jonathan India led off with a solo home run – his second of the day – against new Nationals reliever Cory Abbott.
Washington started to get rolling against Kennedy again in the bottom of the 6th inning with rain now coming down. Jeimer Candelario walked to lead off the inning and then Dominic Smith singled against a shifted infield. That led to David Bell heading to the mound to make a pitching change and call on Fernando Cruz to enter the game and try to keep the Nationals off the board.
He didn’t. A wild pitch moved both runners up a base and then a single brought in a run to cut the lead for Cincinnati to 7-3. Another single followed, bringing in the 4th run for Washington. Cruz then hit Riley Adams to load the bases and just like that things started to feel real uneasy in the Reds dugout. Cruz buckled down, though, and struck out the next two batters before getting a fly ball to end the inning.
Alex Young took over for Cincinnati to start the bottom of the 7th inning and he made it look easy as he worked through the Nationals 2-3-4 hitters with just 13 pitches in a shutout inning of work. The Reds offense picked up a run in the top of the 8th after Matt McLain walked, moved to second on a ground out, stole third base, and then scored on a sacrifice fly from Elly De La Cruz that made it 8-4. Daniel Duarte took care of things for Cincinnati in the 8th inning, sitting the Nationals down in order with a ground out, pop up in foul territory, and ending things with a strikeout of Riley Adams.
The Reds tried to pad their lead a bit more in the top of the 9th inning. Jake Fraley walked and then stole both second and third base. Matt McLain then drew a 2-out walk to put runners on the corner for Jonathan India. He hit the ball hard, but he hit it right back at the pitcher who snagged it and tossed over to first base to end the threat.
Daniel Duarte came back out for the 9th inning, but he didn’t pick up where he left off. The righty walked the first two hitters he saw before manager David Bell headed to the mound to make a pitching change. Lucas Sims came in out of the bullpen to try and hold onto a 4-run lead. Sims would strike out Lane Thomas to record the first out of the inning. Luis Garcia flew out for the second out of the inning. That left the game up to Jeimer Candelario. Both base runners moved up a base on defensive indifference, but it didn’t matter as Sims picked up a strikeout to end the game.
Key Moment of the Game
Lucas Sims entering the 9th inning with two on and no outs and breezing his way through the lineup without allowing a run to cross the plate.
Notes Worth Noting
Jonathan India picked up his second 2-homer game of the season. On May 27th he hit two bombs against the the Cubs. It was his third 2-home run game of his career – he also accomplished the feat on July 30th of 2021.
Brett Kennedy was credited with the win in his 2023 debut. It was the second win of his career, with the other one coming on August 31st of 2018 when he threw six shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies.
Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer both went 4-4 on the day. That raised the line for De La Cruz on the year to .308/.348/.490, and he now has 10 steals in 25 games. It raised Steer’s line to .292/.381/.505 on the season in his 83 games played.
Elly De La Cruz is the first player age 21 or younger to have two 4-hit games within his first 25 MLB games since Luis Rivas in 2000-01.
He is the first player age 21 or younger with 4 hits on the #4thofJuly since Bobby Doerr (BOS) in 1939. pic.twitter.com/QFScXWfIDW
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 4, 2023
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals
Wednesday July 5th, 7:05pm ET
Graham Ashcraft (3-6, 6.66 ERA) vs Josiah Gray (6-6, 3.30 ERA)
Get India going = check
Get Elly going vs lhp = check
Keep Steer going = check
Not a bad day at all. Bell needs to pull Kennedy after 5 and the big adrenaline rush of qualifying for the win. Probably adrenaline dump after coming back out, but lets see what he can do. Not a big complaint. Lefty exits then Newman needs to exit with him, but otherwise they just kept the train rolling along! Kennedy has surprisingly solid stuff imo!
Good check list! What’s tomorrows check list?
Win
Plus, he did not look intimidated or swallowed by the stage. He could be the long man we are looking for?
Great pickup if Kennedy proves he can repeat this outing. Sp help – can’t have enough of it. Same with RP.
Reds winning on the 4th of July. Doesn’t get any better than that. 🙂 Happy Independence Day everyone! Enjoy your freedoms. 🙂
They are America’s Team after all.
Indeed. A Happy 4th of July to all. Love the #Reds
It does get better than that. The Beers lost.
Fun fun fun. So fun to watch these boys. Loved the Nationals announcers who said that this is the future of baseball. They commented on the Red’s speed….stolen bases, going 1st to 3rd, and the way they play defense. Hopefully Ashcraft will have another good start and the Reds can look to sweep on Thursday
They defense was superb today.
Both Elly and Mclain had two very nice plays.
Senzel had a great catch in the outfield.
The Cardinal teams of the 80s were built around pitching, defense, and speed. It was a winning combo at the time. After the strike of ’94, though, all focus has been on homers, esp. after so many teams went with the shift. But now, no more shift, so the Reds strategy works…even without the starters the Cardinals had in the 80s. Pitching, defense, and timely hitting has always been a winning combo in baseball, but speed certainly helps make up for weaknesses in other areas of the game. Teams slow down as they age, but then the power numbers start to increase, often.
Whitey-ball I remember it well….that 1982 Cardinals team just dominated. Nick Krall has re-discovered that same formula ,years ago it was the “5-tool player” .I think Nicks intention is to build a team of 5 tool players…
West coast guy here. Wow that was an early game.
Maybe you should go downstairs and make yourself some coffee.
I’m sure it was different having breakfast and watching a ballgame.
Seemed like strawberries and cream with Wimbledon. Only different.
East Coast guy here, but I love watching sports from the Pacific time zone.
It sure was. Happy 4th from Oregon, Reds fans!
I have been a Reds fan in Portland since Pete Rose appeared at the Pete Ward baseball clinic when I was in little league
I actually prefer watching the Reds in ET versus PT
America’s Team was the Atlanta Braves on the superstation. But this America’s Team is much more fun. Freel does remind me of Brett Butler though and Dale Murphy was a Portland youth
WA State checking in … watched the game, THEN went to the parade.
Who are these guys? An offensive juggernaut. Welcome to the Bigs, Kennedy, and congrats. Thank you again, Lucas Sims!
Another good move by the Red’s GM. Brett Kennedy recently pitched for the Long Island Ducks.
Agreed
Krall had to find some arms after he sold Chase Anderson to the Rays (soon to go to the Rockies) and had some injuries in the rotation.
Kudos to bell today on bullpen use
Running Duarte back out there for the 9th is one of is far in between cases of “I’m at least going to roll the dice and try to push the envelope.” Love that he also had sims ready to go ready to pull the plug quickly when it didn’t look like it would work
Great win. Fantastic fans here. Wonderful trip.
Looks like a beautiful stadium and the OF is huge! Have to eat your Wheaties to hit 3 bombs there
Good job Mark on the two wins you got for us. 🙂
Glad you could get there to represent.
Safe travels back to NC.
Enjoy the rest of the day and the fireworks in our Nations Capital.
You’re undefeated in person, Mark. You may have to sublet a place here for the rest of the summer and work remotely. We’ll see if your culinary skills are a match for Skyline 🙂
Great win today and again can’t say enough about the job Bell and his staff have done.
This team has fun, hustles, bunts, solid defense. Bullpen lights out for most part and starting rotation showing signs
Let’s see if Ashcraft keeps it going tomorrow.
Ashcrafts ERA is 6.66. He needs to get off of that number.
Right. Hopefully, it will go down instead of up.
Superstition is a big part of baseball. It would be extremely difficult for him to pitch again and still have that ERA number.
Glad there is a dot in there.
Nice win, still lol’ing at those pregame comments about the lineup.
I looked at couple of days ago, so this is off memory, in all of MLB Reds are:
7th in runs scored
2nd in stolen bases
3rd in OBP
7th in OPS
11th in slugging
3rd in walks
The most fun Reds team for me since 1990. I’m just enjoying the ride.
I was one of those that didn’t love the lineup, but not because it was somehow the wrong players or order, but just because several righties haven’t done much lately. So of course India had two bombs, and EDLC had more right handed hits today than he’d had all season prior. No complaints there – the Reds are really fun right now!
I’m with you on that Tampa Red. We’ve got some moving parts similar to the 90 team as well. 2 Fun, energetic teams.
The 1999 team was a lot of fun, too. Bad end to that season, though.
Yes it was. That ripped my heart out too.
IMO Senzel 3 run blast is more impactful to the Reds winning this game than India 2 solo shots, just saying.
Totally agree with you LT! Where is the love?
With a competitive roster Bell has been alright. Casey Stengel had quite a few losing seasons before he became a genius. First place on the fourth who would have predicted this just a month or so. Go Reds
I’ll admit it… I wanted Bell GONE! No questions asked! I’ll tell you what though. With a much more talented roster, he has really been able to put some of these guys in a position to succeed. You can see them coming together more and more as they keep on winning. Many of the moves he makes now work out well. They play hard and they play aggressive baseball and I am loving every second of it! This is a really good baseball team. They are getting better and better every day!!! David Bell deserves some credit here. Many teams would have fallen apart with all the injuries etc.
Yes, Bell deserves some major credit. We can still nitpick him for dumb moves though. Being a baseball manager is a thankless job.
Good game by the Reds. So nice that there aren’t several holes in the lineup as in past years. Probably should have been more of a blowout – Stephenson & Senzel left quite a few stranded base runners. But these Reds do like to keep things close.
You can tell who the pros are in the bullpen. Cruz and Duarte just consistently allow baserunners – making things closer than they should be. Kudos to Young and Sims for closing the door. And Kudos to Brett Kennedy. I thought he pitched well for an emergency call-up. Need Santillan and Antone up as soon as possible.
What a huge thing it will be for the Reds when Santillan and Antone get back and obviously, most importantly perform at the top of their capabilities, especially Antone. Amazing and fortunate Reds found Kennedy and plugged him in and gave five.
If Antone is anything like he was 2 years ago it would be huge. His stuff was just filthy, so if he comes back at 75-80% of what he was he will be a huge addition to the bullpen
Santillan was in the dugout today.
He very likely will take the place of Duarte
Or Kennedy
And relying on 2 pitches..
impressive. When we get our starters back him or Lively could be the long man & spot starter.
Great Win
Go reds
Happy 4th folks
Never saw this happening this quick
Offensive juggernaut
Deep bullpen
Need greene and Lodolo healthy soon
I hope Bell continues to bat Steer behind EDLC. Still like the thought of moving EDLC to 3, Steer to 4, and having Fraley/India pull 5/6. India has hit well from the 6 spot throughout his career.
Steer behind EDLC sure worked today. 🙂
I would look to clone the Hunter Greene contract on EDLC, McLain, Steer, and Abbott in the offseason.
Yes…100%
No need to rush such signings: they’ve got to be pleased Lodolo and Ashcroft didn’t sign such contracts when Greene did. But we’ll see how they pitch moving forward and what happens in the off-season. 2nd year blues could be in store for some on your list next season: think of India last season, or Seattle’s Rodriguez and Raleigh this season.
Love the positivity in all the comments above!
This really was a great game to watch. Not too stressful with plenty of action.
I wonder if the starter is sent down or stays up to pitch the last game before the AS break??
Let’s keep it going tomorrow!
If there ever was two situations that define you never know about bull pen guys it was today.Cruz allowed the first 3 hitters to reach and had em loaded with no outs up by 3 and got out of it.Duarte got em in order in the 8th and facing the bottom of the order walked the first two guys in the ninth and was replaced.Now for me Cruz would have been pulled but it worked and Duarte was pulled and it worked and the perfect storm Reds win again.Thats baseball but this team seems to be a team of destiny cause whatever happens they just seem to rise above it and pull out the win.Need a big out they get it.Need a big hit they get it and so on and so on.
That’s why I’ve always said the bullpen money is a crap shoot.
Next two games against Gray and Gore, very good pitchers, but Nats’ defence is atrocious.
Maybe the Reds could swing a trade for former Red Josiah Gray, great arm, that’s a nice ERA he’s sporting there.
Yeah, what would it take? Problem is, they need first a baseman and a couple starters. I could see them interested in Collier to play first.
Yes it is. CJ Abrams may be the worst defensive shortstop I have ever seen!
You remember Suarez at the beginning of 2021 (I think)?
8 games over after being 6 games under just over three weeks ago. Who’d a thunk it?
Going to the game tomorrow. Hope I can do better than that miserable Oriole rain game last week. Hope to give Ashcraft some positive energy. Go Reds!!!
Nice job by Kennedy. Great to see India get going.
India needed this game bad!
I enjoy watching this team. I am keeping hope alive for some pitching help.
Miami 10 Cards 0 7th inning. Cards about to lose their 50th. Kinda like watching a train wreck. You cant not look.
Stick a fork in the Cards . They are done!
Kinda rooting for the brewers a bit to just send the Cubbies off in to sell mode and hopelessness for 2023. Marcus Stroman wants to stay a Cub and sign an extension. Cubs are like….nah…we will trade you. We aint winning this year or next year.
Reds winning window has arrived.
Such a shame about the Cardinals. /s
Yes, I’ve lost sleep. 🙂
Still astonished with Cards fall out, would never envisioned it. I think they underestimated loosing Molina and his leadership skills.
People trying to say Bell pulled all the good moves today are showing they simply don’t know baseball.
He had Senzel hit in the 7th, pinch hit Fraley for Casali, the hit Newman, but kept Fraley in the game in the bottom of the inning. He left Benson on the bench.
I did think he did the pitchers much better today.
And you would be wrong Steve, anyway have a great day
Kevin, since you can’t state why, I will take it as you just like blowing hot air.
@Steve, “blowing hot air” why thank you. Unlike you I don’t have to be right. I understand the game just fine and have a working knowledge as well. I don’t have to have a site to come to and prove I know baseball. This is a place to have fun. Not throw insults to make one feel better. So again have a great day
Must be scary to possess so much more baseball knowledge than we commoners who are able to enjoy what the Reds are doing without having to constantly hate on David Bell.
Never said I didn’t enjoy what the Reds were doing, did I? So, not only do you and others apparently enjoy what the Reds are doing, it’s quite apparent that you all like blowing hot air since you can’t tell me where I’m wrong.
Thank you.
Some people just love to be such fanatical fans for Bell. Probably the same people who want Votto DFA’d, showing all FA’s what we would do with FA’s if they don’t perform, thus causing them to sign with someone else.
Must be nice to have access to so much inside info and be so secure in your knowledge.
Bell does the pitchers well almost every day.
I would wonder about that.
Absolutely not.
Even the people in here that aren’t fond of Bell don’t agree with that.
Steve, here’s the rub, if you will: Even on a good day, a holiday in fact, where practically everything goes right for the Reds, you found a reason to complain. That’s what they’re up in arms about. Just sayin’… Have a great 4th!
I was confused by the Newman move but then again I’m not the manager. Maybe it was Votto and Benson’s day off. That’s why I don’t cry all the time about Bells moves. I’m not on the bench or in the dugout.
I think Bell was just getting those 2 role players some extra AB’s based on the score, and keep the bench guy’s invested. Plus, he wanted Senzel’s defense in left, with Steer going to first w/o depleting the bench further. Kept Benson for “just in case” the tables turned.
I’m glad that Diaz got a rest day too.
Just guessing along with Bells methodology regarding the moves. That’s a tricky proposition.
He let Senzel hit with two men on against a righty later as well. Just no reason with both Benson and Votto on the bench. People can continue to delude themselves about Bell.
I’m not a Bell fan boy.
Trying to figure out his rationale on his methodology about why he did or didn’t do & why. Read it again!
There almost certainly was a reason. Actually, strike the “almost.” Basing our judgment on batting averages and splits, it makes little sense, but that is not all of the information that would/could factor into such a decision.
Delusion can and often does work in multiple directions.
I believe that’s 5 nice starting pitcher performances in a row now. Keep it up.
Weaver actually had a good one yesterday, didn’t he!
Padres in free fall. Wacha to the IL. Nelson Cruz DFA.
Id take Cruz at DH 2x a week against lefties and a late inning bench bat every day. I think we will be ok without Newman.
Newman OPS+ 150 vs LHP, 43 yo Cruz OPS+ 80 vs LHP and no positional flexibility. No tanks.
Fair enough. CES then
Newman isnt a lead off hitter or a first baseman. Let’s end this.
If CES comes up, Bell would only start him against LHP with the way the team is constructed. He needs to start full time or not be up, and that’s not going to happen, unfortunately.
Votto’s gonna get righties til he doesn’t, and who knows when that will be.
Not true about CES. He could start every day against lefties, and every game that Stephenson catches, and/or days when Votto gets a breather. In other words, he could start probably about 5 out of every 7 games.
CES needs to be with the Reds because he’s earned it. Make room for the guy. 3 games a week, 4, 5, whatever. 1B, dh, 3B… unless he proves he needs more time and seasoning.
There are so many ways to get CES in the lineup most every day. Please get him up before the Brewers series.
CES’s 3rd base defense % is only 0.895. He’s not playing 3rd up here.
There’s no role for him up here. He’d be part-time. Let him play full-time down there, keep his skills up.
He is way better than that number suggests. In 2022 he made 20 errors in his first 58 games of the season at third base. He’s made 7 in the 43 games he’s played at third since then. His early career struggles weigh heavily on his career fielding percentage.
From what I’ve seen he’s improved a lot. Kind of like a hitter going 1-21 to start out and then killing it after that. Takes awhile for numbers to increase. In the case of CES he hasn’t played a whole lot of 3B so it will take even longer for his fielding numbers to get better. By the way from what I’ve seen he didn’t look too bad in the outfield either.
How is CES doing? I know that he was cooling off, but has that reversed itself?
Trout Hamate fracture…the sellers are lining up.
The Angels have Moniac (hitting over .300) to replace Trout (who’s having an off-season) in center, and they called up Adell, who has 23 homers at AAA and one in the Show, already. They’re deep. They’ll be fine. I doubt they’ll be selling.
Ah, but if they were selling, we could all dream big as in Ohtani as a rental. 😉 😉
I’d settle for Reid Detmers.
No on Ohtani, as the Angels would want a boatload–think of what the Pads gave up for Soto and add some. Reid Detmers–absolutely! What would it take? Collier and Acosta? Just Collier?
Waiting on my train in about an hour. I’d do this trip again. Smaller crowd today. Plenty of Redleg fans in the stands.
Take at least one of the next two then clear our heads for the Bernies.
Take’em one at a time as they come and never count the wins at the table (or some such). 😉
They’ll be time enough for countin…when the winnings done. 😉
On a completely different topic, seeing that Miley is pitching today, I want to know why the Reds gave him away. The Reds would be a better team with him in the rotation and not pitching for their top competitor in the division.
I wanna hear the story.
Money…
M-O-N-E-Y
Following the 2021 season, the Reds held a $10M club only option on Miley for 2022. The sunken cost buyout on the option was $1M.
The Reds put Miley on waivers in hopes of getting him off their books thus avoiding paying the buyout. The Cubs claimed Miley and exercised the option to keep him for 2022 at $10M.
The Brewers subsequently signed Miley as a free agent for the 2023 season ($3.5m) with a $10M mutual option for 2024 ($1M buyout). In addition to the salary and option buyout minimum sunken cost, Miley could also cost the Brewers up to another $1M total in bonuses if he pitches as many as 150 innings in 2023.
Number’s above courtesy of Cot’s Contracts
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/
Jim, thank you for the detailed response. I guess this was all in an effort to trim costs as much as possible.
The thing is, if we kept him, all of those figures balloon over $10 million
But didn’t the Reds turn around and spend (almost) the same $ on Minor?
If I’m not mistaken he was damaged goods. Ended that year with the Reds on a downer? Started with the Cubs injured? I would have to check but I’m not in the mood.
I have the same recollection, JB.
Look at his career stats. His second year with the Reds was maybe his 3rd best at the time. The Reds got the total value of his contract (3 years/$24 mil., I think) out of that second year (he was injured or pitched poorly the first), so they took a chance on someone picking up the last year of his contract ($10 mil.) and were lucky the Cubs did so, as he was injured most of that season (last season). But, yes, the Cubs have been lucky too, as he’s been effective for them. He seems to be getting better with age, which is not something you can count on.
Thanks JMB. He just seemed so effective. That second year. Hurt to see him go, but then again, I’m not the one on the hook to pay him $10m!
The Reds were selling, and going into a rebuild. Miley made a lot of money. Are people forgetting that in 2022 that he only made 8 starts. He’s only made 11 starts this year. A rebuilding team doesn’t need 35-36 yr olds that make a lot of money, and only makes 8 starts one year, and only about half the starts this year.
You just can’t ignore that he’s missed 30+ starts over 1.5 years, and all of a sudden want him back when he’s had a few good starts again.
If Tyler Mahle comes back in 2 years from Tommy John and wins a Cy Young for the Twins, are you going to wonder why they got rid of him too?
Good points. Thanks.
A lot of money?
In a world where dudes are making $40M per season?
Players making $40 million a year exist in a different universe than the one the Reds are in. It’s just not practical. Yes, we could have maybe one or two of those guys but that’s the extent of it. In my opinion, the risk creates is way too great to take. Just one man’s opinion.
I truly believe we have a working model now. To me, it looks like the Tampa theory, but with these large crowds that we’re having at the park, we should be a rich man’s Rays.
Didn’t want to pay the $10 Million option. I remember Doug saying he would riot if the Reds didn’t. I thought I felt an earthquake back then. 🙂
I was surprised when the Reds exposed him on waivers after trying to trade him. That tells you no other MLB team was willing to give up assets and also pay him $10 million last season. Looking at career stats, I didn’t hate the move.
Was looking for Doug’s reply to “a lot of money”, and found it 10 deep in the thread.
IIRC the primary conjectured reason was the financial impact of the COVID season.
Yes, certainly money is important in any decision the Reds make. But also an element of availability- Wade Miley has pitched a total of 93 innings the last 2 years. And he ended the 2021 season hurt. We didn’t get anything back for him but we also wouldn’t have gotten much performance from him either.
Did anyone else feel like the home plate umpire did a pretty decent job today? There were a couple missed calls, but it felt consistent and fair to both sides, which was a refreshing change.
The Bats July 4th lineup just posted. no surprises. CES is still there. Fairchild has not reported. With 6 games to the break, I’m keeping a closer eye on Fairchild than CES.
They are only an IL move away from being able to have him back for the Brewers series this weekend which many (most?) of us thought was in the offing when they recalled him suddenly in the middle of last weekend. Could it depend on the Brewers probable pitchers this weekend???
Burnes is the Brewers probable for Friday. They are listed as TBA for Saturday. Miley is going tonight which would make him possible if not totally probable on Sunday,
I will be stunned if Fairchild doesn’t play a major role for the team in the second half. A right handed hitting outfielder with speed and plays great defense. He is the perfect fit for this team. We’ll see but my guess is we go with two catchers after the ASB. At least I’m hoping so.
The caveat being he must perform well while he is down at AAA.
Fairchild had a mixed bag in his short “week” at Louisville between his prior send down and being recalled last Sunday.
His BA/OBP/SLG/OPS line was .240/.296/.680/.976 (27PA over 5 games) which looks super on its own as he had 6 hits including 3HR and a triple. In addition, he lost a hit on a TOOTBLAN by a base runner which turned a single into a FC. That would have put his BA to .280 and I suspect raised his slugging just enough to get him to 1.000 for his OPS. BUT, his K rate was 40%.
I saw a number of his PAs on MiLBTV. I suspect on his own or per instruction, he was focusing on hitting for power as he was guessing at 2 strikes and getting caught looking.
think the reason K-child is in AAA is that he’s perceived as redundant with Senzel….as we saw today w NS in the OF against a lefty.
I’m not saying I think this is the right move or that you can’t parse SF’s numbers to make it look like a bad move.
I just don’t see the Reds optioning Senzel. His ability to play IF also likely tips the scales.
Barring injury, I don’t see K-child back up for awhile.
But of course we’re talking about Senzel…..and injury.
Friedl and Fraley both have been hurt, too.
Maybe some of the roster clearing trades will happen, but that’s wishful thinking.
Fairchild isn’t a hole in the lineup, but his AAA K rate recividism isn’t endearing. Nor is his BA.
He can field and run and some occasional pop.
Having Senzel and Fairchild (and Newman and 3 catchers) obviously won’t fit.
So release a catcher and then bring up CES or Fairchild? With Senzel (and Benson) still in the way, that’s a no-brainer.
As hitters, Fairchild is well above both Senzel and Newman using wRC+ which bakes in power, walks and batting average:
Fairchild: 98
Newman: 83
Senzel: 81
He’s a better outfielder than Senzel. He’s a better baserunner than both Senzel and Newman. In short, if there is an injury to a starter, Fairchild should get the playing time.
So, why did the Reds keep Senzel and Newman? The team doesn’t need the defensive versatility they provide, but admittedly it’s still useful. They were kept because they have far superior splits against LHP that fit the team’s needs better while everyone is healthy. OPS vs. LHP:
Senzel: 1.016
Newman: .924
Fairchild: .785
It’s a bit ironic, and a sign of just how good the Red’s lineup currently is that the most well-rounded bench option is at AAA. Since none of these players will start on most days, keeping the best platoon partners was the right call.
One more thing, Fairchild is the best trade chip of the three, too. As a league average player, he would start in about half of the leagues outfields everyday. Newman and Senzel are well-below average starters if they have to play daily.
@Harry> I believe the Senzel/ Fairchild debate goes to the core of what the team’s roster philosophy.
Senzel’s advantage is that he can play infield, and at least this season has a clear OPS edge versus LH pitching (although someone other than myself has posted stats here that indicate on a career basis the two guys are essentially even in this area).
Fairchild is clearly the better OF at all 3 of the spots. He is quicker toward the ball, takes better routes, cuts balls off to save bases, and plays balls better off the wall. He is also the better all around offensive player given his overall OPS/neutral handedness splits and the effectiveness of his baserunning, an area where Senzel has been prone to TOOTBLANS and alternately not consistently advancing when an additional base is there for the taking.
To date, Senzel has gotten the nod because the Reds philosophy has favored platoon play and positional flexibility. That’s the organization’s choice of philosophy; and, Senzel fits it better.
I propose here time and again that I think this is not the best philosophy given the handedness neutral talent that has come on board this season, i.e. McLain, Steer, EDLC, the emergence of Freidl, maybe Benson, to` join India and Stephenson along with CES in the wings but; I am not the PoBO, GM, or field manager. 😉
However, over the last several weeks, could the philosophy be evolving in a different direction, possibly due to the growth of handedness neutral personnel I cited previously?
Before Fairchild was optioned in late June, appearances were that he had become the 1st choice to backup Freidl in CF. In his abbreviated 2 game stint this week, twice Fairchild was the choice ahead of Senzel (and Newman) to pinch hit versus a LH pitcher in leverage situations. He reached base both times ironically without putting the ball in play. One of these appearances extended the inning paving the way for a game winning HR.
Time will tell.
@BK, I agree. But my underlying point is that the Reds team is so good and so deeply populated now with handedness neutral guys that it doesn’t need the baggage of carrying a couple of platoon guys (which defines the bench because it requires 2 players for every spot platooned) and would be better served by having one of the platoon limited LH hitters as their LH bench bat for high leverage situations and stronger all around players in the other 3 spots.
And their best trade chip is a platoon limited LH hitter with a high OPS vs RH pitching. The presence of McLain, Steer, EDLC, Stephenson, India and CES in the wings along with the emergence of Freidl as not needing to be platooned makes this guy’s limited scope skill redundant to the Reds yet very valuable to a team lacking the stockpile of other players who hit RH pitching like the Reds crew does.
@Jim, the problem with trading Fraley is that he’s tremendously good against RHP, like All-star good, AND the Reds have the perfect complement to him in Senzel.
Fraley vs. RHP: .926
Senzel vs. LHP: 1.016
Why on earth would we worry about that kind of production? Only ten players in all of MLB have enough PA to qualify and an OPS over .900. Trading Fraley would create a big void in the lineup, but I agree another team would jump at the chance to acquire him.
Fairchild and Senzel, indeed, have closer career numbers. However, Senzel’s numbers have been affected by injury, and we’re far enough into the season that the more recent data should take precedence.
Lastly, the Reds have not made a philosophical change moving away from the platoon. Instead, their personnel no longer require employing platoons at most positions. Steer, McLain, EDLC, Friedl, India, and likely Benson can play every day and generate better production than would occur in a platoon. Fraley and Votto are exceptions, thus, the Reds carry Senzel and Newman who are ideal complements.
@Jim, I’d hold off on trading Fraley until we had a solid back up plan. Dunn seems like a possibility, but he’s just getting his 1st taste of AA ball. This time next year, if he continues to develop, maybe we could part with Fraley.
I really like Fraley, like I really liked Winker, but I’d also like more complete players on the roster.
I agree with MBS, but let’s not underestimate just how good the player has to be to achieve the ideal. The Reds have one player with an OPS over .900 right now–McLain. The dynamic duo of Fraley and Senzel are flawed individually, but elite in a platoon.
BK – very well detailed, and as you suggest, Newman represents the RHH complement to the LHP challenged Votto. If only Votto would get going against RHP, as he well should at some point, we’d have a similar level of platoon production at 1B as we have in the OF with Fraley/Senzel.
And whatever combo starts the game, whether it be Fraley and Votto -or- Senzel and Newman, the bench will have the perfect PH complement of the other two for later in the game.
This has been a huge component of the Reds’ success and has also been managed very well by Bell.
The Reds have 47 wins on July 4th. In 2022, on the same date they had won just 28 games and made 47 wins on August 20th…Yikes…
The next games of this series could be the most difficult since Nats will count on Joshia Gray and McKenzie Gore as starters. It is interesting what Ashcraft can do after the pretty good previous outing against Padres, hopefully it was not only an exception…
Cubs blow 2 run lead in the 9th.
Tie game
Stupid Cubs. lol
They’ve got two on and no outs in the top of the 10th.
Didn’t score. Brewers in the 10th with a runner on of course.
So the Cubs were up 6-0 yesterday and 6-3 going to the bottom of the 7th and lost and today they were up 4-0 in the 5th and 6-2 going to the bottom of the 8th and are going to lose again. Cubs had bad luck top 10th, they had first and second nobody out and hit a line drive double play right at ss. I was just looking at the batting averages for the Milwaukee Brewers and man their lineup is pretty weak to score as many runs as they’ve been scoring. Their top 3 batting averages in todays lineup were .284, .282,.252. I saw Jesse Winkers batting .203 with a .296 slugging, which is horrific and he is their DH
No score after 10.
Cubs win.
Brewers thrown out 3 times in extras.
Twice at home.
That was wild! In the bottom of the 10th, after a regular flyout, the batter hits a single to LF (Happ). Happ throws the runner out at the plate (2 outs). The batter tries to stretch the single into a double, thrown out by the catcher, three outs.
In the bottom of the 11th, the runner moves to 3rd on a FC. Flyout to shallow-mid LF (Happ) (2 outs). The runner is tagging up, gets thrown out at the plate.
Twice, the Cubs get called for 3 outs off 2 batters! Wild!
You must say, “Cubs win!” Harry Carey style. Unspoken rule.
Cubs over Brewers 7-6 in 11 innings.
Cool. In first all by ourselves.
Not only that. Looking at wildcard run
1 gb dodgers
1 g ahead philies, mil and sf (who have lost the last 3 )
Cubs, win! ! Cubs Win! Cubs Win!
Brewers. Looooose!!!! Reds in First! Reds in First!
Checking all the teams around us, so WC, also, just in case something does happen.
We are a game ahead of the Brewers, Phillies, and Giants, a game behind the Dodgers (they still have to play today).
Boy, Miami is winning the WC nice. And, what gets me is, they aren’t even doing it with Alcantara having a Cy Young year.
Let’s not forget Reds already won the series to Miami, another good team
I forgot that we already won the series in Miami! Nice!
SF is coming back to Earth as they really don’t have much. I think LA wins the NL West eventually. Arizona & SF lost today, but Philly won at Tampa. If the Reds can’t win the division then it seems to me like the wildcards would come down to the Reds, Miami, Arizona, and Philly. Of course someone like SD or the Mets could get red hot, but they’d have alot of work to do.
In reality the Reds have the most talent and should win the division. I can’t see Milw making any big moves since they’re so flawed and the Reds are mostly in wait-n-see mode themselves.
You coming around to that bandwagon , Indy?
Without a doubt. They got so hot they couldn’t even lose when Weaver pitched. It could still go south, but the division is so weak
After watching Kennedy’s post game interview, I can’t help but wonder whether somebody whispered in his ear that he might only make one start. He didn’t seem disappointed regardless. Its actually kind of a neat baseball story I think. He’s been on quite a ride. If Santillan comes up in his place, I’m sure the relievers will appreciate a fresh arm too. If the Reds don’t see Kennedy pitch another game, I suppose that would be a sign the other Reds pitchers were performing well. I’m talking out my you know what, but I sometimes think the batting order the Reds use is designed to ambush and get early runs to help out the starting pitching. I think Kennedy and Weaver really benefited from the offensive support. As effective with his location as Kennedy was today, I have to wonder whether he might be more exposed over time should a team have more video to get ready on. How many games do the Reds need from more starters before Green and Lodolo return?
I can understand if Kennedy gets only 1 opportunity after today’s performance. But, for there to be a second, there has to be a first. He got in the FO’s minds for “possible future use”.
good thing is, I understand he still has options left. So when they remove him from the active roster they have ability to simply option him instead of designating him for assignment and potentially losing him. He’s only 28 years old.
Rest of the league is also desperate for starting pitching innings. Toronto hasn’t had a 5th starter for 5 weeks. We simply have to patch together a starting rotation together until mid-August and Kennedy might help us do that.
For people to try to understand what we have in prospects, we have SS with “expected arrival dates of” 2023 (Elly), 2024 (Marte), 2025 (Arroyo), and 2026 (Cabrera in the Rookie League).
Now, people have talked about not moving people around and not trading our future. Given that, why do we need 4 SS’s in 2026?
There’s probably reasons that are more compelling than others, but for me, I like the idea of trading position players for position players. I think pitching is too quirky and unreliable to bank on. I think if the Reds feel like they can improve on position players through trade, they should. The thing about shortstops though is they are what I would consider typically more versatile athletes generally. At those young ages, they sometimes grow into different body shapes more conducive to other positions. I think the idea of trying to get pitching this season could be tricky unless they take a huge money dump contract and are willing to pay actual dollars for talent. I’m not sure I would do it, but I think the only way the Reds could get something that would help them this year is if they knew that Lodolo or Green were going to be injured for longer than August, traded one of them to a team that was tanking with expensive starters that knew he would be worth the risk in the coming years. I’m not sure who is a fit. I think the Mets might be an interesting match for that…but I don’t know if I would do it.
I think it was oversight, but we also have McLain.
But the answer is possibly because Elly might be a third baseman, McLain might move to 2nd, Marte is probably an outfielder and Arroyo is thought to be the best shortstop of the bunch.
I’d ask others to comment on this, but I think the consensus is developing that Marte will not be a SS. It may actually be good news, since the rap on him from early days in the Seattle system was that he was just advanced for his age, but not likely to develop once he hit the high minors. Well, apparently he’s now being thought of as a power hitting 3b/corner OF type with plenty of bat and the same arm. The others are still very much still the standard SS types but farther behind in possibly moving with offensive skill to another position.
Because the perceived need is pitching and:
1. Trades rarely happen until just prior to the trade deadline
2. Trade deadline is usually a seller’s market for pitchers
3. We have multiple starters expected back in August
4. We’ll have Lively in a matter of days
5. Santillan should join the bullpen soon, too
In short, we have a good bit of organic opportunities to improve the team’s weakness. I’m not against trading prospects, but we should not overpay at the deadline just to look like we’re trying.
The best move the team can make now is to drop a catcher and call up CES. Adding him to the lineup can allow Bell to schedule off-days for the starters and keep everyone fresh for a pennant race.
Happy Independence Day everyone! I’m tremendously thankful to live in the USA!!!
“The best move the team can make now is to drop a catcher and call up CES. Adding him to the lineup can allow Bell to schedule off-days for the starters and keep everyone fresh for a pennant race.”
I concur.
“Happy Independence Day everyone! I’m tremendously thankful to live in the USA!!!”
I’m with you buddy. I bleed red, white, and blue.
“God has given hope a name – America”
What Nick Krall has done in the past 24 months should be a model for all of baseball. He procured an immense amount of high end young talent, albeit much of it currently at SS, but they will be moved. But’s it not just the group you list. There are more. Many more (Acosta, Collier, Stewart, Hector, Phillips, Petty, Agiar, and more). All the way down in age to Duno and the new kid from Korea. Not to mention this week’s draft.
As the current group of rookies (ELDC. Steer, McClain, Abbott and others) approach 30, there will be no need to sign them to expensive and likely unproductive long term contracts. In fact, they become trade bait a la Castillo and Mahle last year. And the net result is a bunch more high end really young talent to cycle through the system to the majors. This is how the Reds, and any team really can become perpetual contenders without a bloated $300 million dollar payroll and the bloated uncaring players that come with it (Manny Machado and others like him).
Most teams and fan bases don’t have the patience to go through the losing that is required at the beginning of such a set-up. The Reds and their fans have already weathered the hard part.
Think how awesome it will be in 24 or 25 (or 26 or 27 for that matter) when the Reds with their $120 or so million dollar payroll, with a fast, young, hungry roster cut down the Yankees and their $250 million dollar payroll full of uncaring players in the Series. It could happen. It should happen. Absolutely have to the stick the plan.
Do not trade any of this high end young talent it 23.
In Hamilton’s case, the move to outfield was successful; he became one of the best centerfielders in baseball.
So, from what I gather, still there is no need to “stick the course”. That, if the prospects are blocked at the major league level, then change their positions.
The only thing I specify from there is. . .just how injured was Hamilton when we tried to make an OF out of him? Just how injured was Senzel when we tried to make an OF out of him? How did Alonso work in the OF?
IF we are going to have prospects change positions, they should be starting now or very soon. As in, the SS’s I mentioned above, possibly 2 if not 3 of them should be working on a different position. Just not “SS to 3rd” or “SS to 2nd” but “SS to OF”, “SS to 1st”, or even “SS to C” and “SS to P”. Why? It would help each the transition to the new position before they get to the majors. And, two, if they never really learn the position, get too injured learning the position, etc., they will, in fact, become true tradebait.
I have said before, 2 purposes for prospects: 1) replace the major leaguers, and 2) tradebait. If they aren’t going to replace the major leaguers in front of them, change their positions so that they can possibly replace a different major leaguer. If that isn’t working, then we have tradebait.
But, “keeping with the plan”, and “don’t trade our future”, sorry, I just don’t see the concern.
It would be nice if pennant contending teams could arrive on schedule. The 1989 Reds were supposed to be pretty good, after four consecutive 2nd place finishes in the West. And they were, until just about all the starters got hurt. They finished last.
Of course, most of this team was intact for 1990, and won the World Series. And then they faltered for a couple of years. The 1994 team was pretty good, and then the strike ended the season. And the 1995 team came pretty close to going to the World Series again, but the Braves stopped them in the NLCS.
So yeah, it looks like this 2023 team is getting pretty good, pretty fast. Starting pitching is obviously the weakness.
Should they trade young (minor league) talent for a solid starter, when July 30th rolls around, and some teams finally become sellers?
It is one possible outcome.
David, I disagree 100% about trading young talent for a solid starter. Please see my post just above your’s. The Reds are on an impressive path. Let’s leave them there rather than diminishing it at all by trading away any of this young talent.
I only indicated that it was one possible outcome. The Reds are in a pennant race NOW, regardless of the “plan”. What is, honestly, the status of the Reds’ starting rotation?
Graham Ashcraft’s outing tomorrow will tell a lot. Has he turned the corner or will the Nationals score a lot of runs? Can he give the Reds six good innings? If the bullpen collapses in July from overuse, then we fall back to 3rd or 4th place. And all these games that are half pitched by the BP cannot continue. In all honesty, right now, Andrew Abbott is by far the Reds best and most reliable pitcher. A rookie left hander that started the season in AA ball. Nick Lodolo is supposed to be back…”soon”. And I still am wondering what limbo Connor Phillips is in right now.
Your post actually provoked me into thinking that pennant seasons don’t always run on schedule. It’s great to speculate about the future, but the future is just that, out there somewhere. And sure, the Reds traded Josiah Gray as a minor leaguer, and he’s now the Nationals best starter, which the Reds face tomorrow.
Gred, agree completely. And what is the definition of a solid starter when almost every team needs one. And how about cost? Any starter who is any good at all will cost a fortune in prospects or cash. No Thanks
If I read “stick to the plan” one more time I’m going to lose my mind.
1 The plan in your head isn’t the Reds plan, it’s just your perception of what the Reds intend to do.
2 Even if you were able to read the minds of the FO, good plans have contingencies for unexpected good, and bad surprises.
The only thing I know is a bunch of people are going to be disappointed by the trade deadline. I’m just not sure if it’s going to be the dreamers, or the hoarders. Count me into the dreamers camp.
Well said. Dream on. I’m with you.
The “hoarders” are just saying not to trade CES/Marte for a rental. If there is a trade to be made that isn’t purposefully getting fleeced then go ahead and make it.
Doesn’t take these two for what the Reds need for this year. They have redundant pieces on the MLB roster that can be bundled with prospects on down the food chain. The Reds did not get a top prospect for the rentals they moved at the deadline last year; and rentals would do for the Reds this year.
Mahle and Castillo were not rentals because they were also under control for this year (2023). Same with Gray, Suarez and Winker traded earlier in 2022.
Old friend Michael L<orenzen has been suggested as someone who would shore up the Reds rotation for a playoff run. He will be a free agent at the end of the season and would cost the Reds about $3m in salary after the deadline and should not cost a top prosect to obtain
@Jim I’d be fine with a Michael Lorenzon type. My opinion is 2 fold. Due to how our rotation is currently constructed, 2 guys with 4.5 ERAs would improve our team more than 1 guy with a 3 ERA. Also, most of our best prospects don’t make sense to trade. There is the major league ready/already on the team and contributing group that make our team weaker this year if traded: Elly, McLain, Williamson, Abbott, Marte, CES, Phillips; and there is the 20 years old in A ball and under that would be a sell low group: Arroyo, Petty, Collier, Jorge, Rodriguez, Cabrera, Duno, Balcazar.
I’m pretty okay trading anyone outside of those 2 groups, which should still be able to get the 4.5 era pitchers that would be helpful. Yet, seemingly all people post are “Trade India for pitching” or “Trade for Bieber/Cease/whoever” neither of which make sense for where our team is.
@MBS, Krall has articulated that the “plan” is to build a team from the farm system. He’s also publicly stated that they wanted to become more athletic–better base runners and better on defense–areas they found the team lacking in 2021. While that is a pretty broad “plan” and some here may intimate details of his plans that have not been publicly stated, he has absolutely laid out the franchise’s strategy.
@BK “We’ve got to make sure we’re doing everything we possibly can to draft, sign and acquire quality players and continue to put players in that pipeline. Those are the players that will get to the big leagues. They’ll be the players used in trades, in the big leagues and who are going to do everything they need to do to get us to the postseason.”
This is his direct quote in the Enquire article 3/12/22 where he discusses peaks and valleys. I’d link it, but every time I try to link anything it gets moderated.
So it’s not that you’re, or the other people are wrong about him wanting to build up the pipeline. The problem is some people here on the RLN only lock in on the parts of his statements that reflect what they want, and then tell everyone else that they’re wrong because it doesn’t lineup with their desires.
Also yes 100% to the “become more athletic–better base runners and better on defense” sentiment. It’s why I think India is trade bait, as well as maybe CES. I do think trading India is a smart move, but I really want CES in the middle of our lineup.
Absolutely!
Hoarders…lol. Potential just means you haven’t done anything yet.
I can see both sides, but I think the “hoarders” are worrying about nothing because the Reds are not going to make a big splash this season. I can almost guarantee that. Its too pricey and alot of our kids are so young they’re not even sure what they have yet. At the same time, I will be disappointed if Krall does nothing. We need a backup closer thats atleast as good as Sims and lefty is preferable….or atleast great splits vs lefties. They could use a 4th-5th starter type thats better then Weaver/Williamson/Kennedy/Lively grouping. It shouldn’t be that expensive to add some help and the Reds players & fans deserve that. You shouldn’t have to score 7+ runs most of the time to win
8 games above 500 and in first place after 86 games played.
Doug any chance you could post the season predictions thread we did before the season started. It would be fun to see how wrong we all were.
Pretty amazing, isn’t it? Nobody but NOBODY had us winning this much and actually contending (let alone LEADING) in the NLC. We knew it was a weak division, but … WOW!!! 😮
I’m still in recovery mode after my DC trip. I’ll need to head for the UK yet today and catch the rest of this series.
@mark yep this team has exceeded all our expectations to this point.
Even the gambling sites were offering a very low win total to beat.
I think the Reds were at 67.5 wins with the sportsbooks
I said 70 wins ± a couple. Part of me wanted to go for 75± with the same range. However, I let myself be talked down by the thoughts of several folks whose opinions I value very much were saying.
This said, my reasons for wanting to go higher have not been why the Reds appear to be a lock to end up better. 😉
It was 65.5 and I took the over. But, I was predicting 70-74 wins, not a winning record. Reds doing a nice job of sending a message to the Cards that their season is over so start selling. David Ross got tossed yesterday and not all is well on the North side of Chicago either. Might as well win another series today. Go Reds.
I thought the team would finish close to last year’s 62 wins. I also felt the team could potentially have as few as 55 wins.
My major concern was the starting pitching, I thought it was foolish to depend on three young pitchers, none of whom had pitched more than 120 innings.
I thought the offense would be improved, but mostly because it was so bad last season.
I figured it would be at least 2025 before this team was ready to compete. Happy I was wrong.
I think I was 65-97. Glad to be wrong
I took them on New Year’s Eve to win the division at 100-1. I was skeptical of the Cardinals’ pitching and the Brewers’ bats, and liked how much faster and more athletic the Reds promised to be.
The Reds’ rotation has some issues, but at least we’re not trotting out Adam Wainwright out there every 5 days. It must be a delicate situation to DFA a loyal veteran like that, but the player has to have some self-respect, too.
I remember predicting a .500 season and 3rd place behind St. Louis and Milwakee.
I don’t know what I predicted, but it was nothing close to what’s going on now. This year was my best case scenario for 2024.
I thought our bullpen would be atrocious again. Very glad I was wrong.
I was a 70+ win guy primarily on the basis of the maturity of the big 3. I projected 35 wins and 450 innings amongst the 3 of them. If we didn’t get that, we might not get 70! Wrong! Now there lies the concern of Year 3. We will be past the infancy/development phase and into the results phase. Do we have Johnny Cueto and Don Gullett or do we have Homer Bailey and Tyler Mahle? One group achieves well above 500 and are obvious #1 and #2, The other group struggles to get close to 500 and are closer to #4s. I also could see the Ws significantly changing with our recent offensive prowess. But the question remains valid on who these guys really are and will be over the next year or two.
Whats not to like with the Reds.Still get to question Bell and ask why no CES yet and is Krall going to add any pitching and the Reds still finding a way to win.Don’t get any better.Krall has just done a great job of flipping the roster from older slower at or below league average players to younger faster at or above league average players.Rule changes and the pitch clock were made for this team to thrive in and they are doing just that.Fastest team in the league and probably are one of the youngest especially the position players.Roster built for the long haul.Next question and maybe the most important one is will Bob spend money to fill in the holes.After cutting ties with Moose and Myers with 20 + mil owed one would think so but we shall see.Great time to be a Reds fan.
Personally, I would like to see the money being spent with long term contracts for the young core of this team. I don’t think I need to name names, but we know who they are.
Our biggest need for next year is a very solid starting pitcher.
After that, yes extensions. After that, a bullpen piece or two.
That seems to be the Braves’ model.
Hey RG. Your statement will Bob spend money to fill the holes I agree 100%. Have stated many times on posts that it’s key for this team to become a true contender, that and some luck on health. I know we will not spend Mets money but we better spend enough to get a couple of good #3#4 SP’s and depending on how our bullpen shakes out some help there as well. I would think why we would not make any
significant trades this year is because we can keep our young talent and go after free agents next year.
If the Reds are following the Tampa model, they will move both Jonathon India and Tyler Stephenson soon. I can’t imagine them doing it while in a Pennant race, but I can see them doing it this winter.
I hope you are wrong. Really really don’t have any young catching prospects coming up soon. I do think Chuckie Robinson deserves a chance and he’ll probably get it when injuries occur but he is certainly not young however, I believe he is a prospect.
The difference between the Reds and Tampa is it looks like the Reds will be able to draw large crowds to their games. Tampa, no matter how good they are doesn’t seem to be able to do so. Thus the Reds should have more capital to work with.
I am not saying I want it to happen. Many here have wanted the Rays model and that is what they would do.
Although, I don’t want the Reds to trade. India and Stephenson, I also don’t want the Reds to sign them to long extensions. Stephenson currently is only catching 1/3 of their games and the Reds are doing just fine.
The value of extending India might be more psychological, than performance base. I think it would send a sign to the team,and fans as well, is that the Reds intend on holding this group together and contending for a very long time. Also, I think the risk of any extensions for either of these guys going south, and not being able to be recaptured through trade in the future is minimal at best.
If Stephenson returns to pre-2023 form, look out, can you imagine the fire power of the line up at that point? I truly believe he is a keeper, and would love to see him is it extended as well as India.
Stephenson is who I want to sign to an extension (if reasonable). We are stacked with infielders, but I never want to experience the catching situation we endured last year.
I was thinking about our Starters that we do have.
Lodolo FA 2028
Ashcraft FA 2029
Greene FA 2030
Phillips FA 2031, if he comes up 2 months into next season.
Abbott FA 2030, 2 year extension? 2032
How nice would that be? I like the idea of not having to replace 40% or 60% of a rotation in any season.
I wouldn’t mind them trying to extend guys through about age 32. They shouldn’t have to extend later than that going forward.
I also think this off season could be amazing for the Reds They will free up more than 40 mil that can improve the roster as needed. I can envision a big bat or a big starter signing here. How about 3/100 with annual opt outs for the right guy?
Still have another 20 mil for bullpen help. Win the Series in 24.
Hey GR. Not sure we will need a big bat esp after CES comes up but agree with your post. Extend key players and get above average FA SP/RP.
Who is the “big bat” you have in mind, and where would they play?
C13J, I have no idea who the big bat would be other than him being an outfielder. Maybe a big pitcher would be the way to go, but again, I have no idea who will be available. The point is, they will have the money to get what they need.
I also believe Cincy will not have to overpay any more. Free agents want the money, but they also want to win. The Reds have vaulted themselves right into preferred status in just 3 months. Guys will want to be part of it. Reds Fever if you will.
Let’s no pencil in a starter without a successful start above AA into a 6 year starter lol
I THINK OVERALL THIS WAS EDLC best game. even better than the cycle game. he played really good defense, intelligent, aggressive baserunning to go along with the 4 hits and SF. the more games like this the better for getting rid of my Billy Hamilton and Aquino memories
Solid post, EDLC did seem like a more patient hitter, and that might just be the key for him against LHP, he was able to work with what the pitcher was giving him, and got 4 Hits. Good game indeed.
It does look like Tyler Stephenson is turning the corner after his injury-riddled 2022 season that culminated in surgery.
last 7 games: .409/.500/.682/1.182
Last 15 games: .321/.390/.509/.899
Last 30 games: .283/.347/.462/.809
That’s the TS we all know and love. Love to see the Reds call up CES at the AS break and find a role for Casali not on the 26 man. Greene, Lodolo, and Antone are all re-habbing out in Arizona. Pay him well and send him out there as a pitching whisperer.
Trade or DFA Newman and bring up Fairchild. Those 2 moves really strengthen the 26 man roster. CES adds a big power righty bat and Fairchild strengthens the OF defense and increases team speed even more. Newman really has no role going forward.
Casali is already being paid $2.5m this year with a $750K buyout against a $2.5m mutual option for 2024; so, that’s $3.25 guaranteed into his bank account for this season even if they release him. Get him through waivers to settle the 2023 deal and then agree on a juicy personal services deal thru 2024 to keep him around (and keep David Bell on his toes because Casali might be his replacement in waiting).
Jim I have to disagree. Naming Curt Casali as manager would be a terrible idea. I would hate for the Reds to give this team to someone who has never managed before.
If they move on from David Bell (which I think is unlikely) they should hire a manager who has a track record of success (e.g. Lou Pinella, Davey Johnson, Jack McKeon and Dusty Baker)
I didnt realize Jim it was that much, but $2.5 mil salary 2023 plus 750K buyout 2024 plus a 250K assignment bonus( if Reds trade him)
Casali has said he wants to move into a FO role and I wonder if he is planning on playing in 2024 or not. If he’s happy with this team and planning on retiring, I wonder if they could give him his assignment bonus to Arizona and semi-retire. Not to launch a pro-Bell or anti-Bell internet war, but I think barring something dramatic, Bell will be re-signed as manager for 2024+. I m not saying yes or no to that, just think that’s going to happen.
That doesn’t mean Casali couldn’t also have role with the reds in coaching or asst to Krall.
Jim, I think you’re on target that Casali could be the manager in waiting. As stated previously, I think D. Bell will be extended and that will continue as long as the magic with this young team goes on. In the meantime, Casali could be appointed an assistant to the GM or other position to get management experience. At the appropriate time D. Bell could then be given a position in the front office and Casali becomes manager.
I am with you on Newman and I am on record as saying he would play a lot when they acquired him but it was at short over Barrero.That ship sailed with the arrival of Little Mac and EDLC but he still starts against lefties and often pinch hits against them but he isn’t a DH or a first base man so why not CES or Fairchild for the reasons you listed.I never bought into the fact he was being shopped because well he is what the back of his card says he is after what 6 years in the big leagues.He is just a cheaper version minus the power of Kyle Farmer and thats not a bad thing cause he is till getting a lot of time with the Twins.Reds have better younger and cheaper options IMO then Newman.
This may have already been posted by someone, but if not it’s good news.
Nick Krall said, that there’s no innings limit on Abbott based on last year’s work load plus what he did at UVA. Said that they won’t be shutting him down. Awesome news!
That’s very surprising, but good news! When/where did he say this?
MLB network!
Talking with Ensminger. I think it was Ensminger
I was wow!
The Reds official site.
I love it!
Amazing
Yessss@
That ? Was supposed to be(!)
My breathing treatments makes m e a shaky mess!
On the official Reds site.
I’m not so sure it’s great news. It could mean the Reds are willing to risk Abbott’s arm because they don’t want to add to the payroll this summer.
I have zero inside knowledge, but I can’t believe there’s any way that’s true.
Probably not, but this is Bob Castellini we are talking about.
Agree. They wouldn’t risk a long-term asset in Abbott if they didn’t think that he is up for it. DJ has had to have given input on that. Also about Abbott’s future.
Abbott has thrown 118 innings the past 2 years and is not a high velocity max effort guy. With the AS break coming up and Kennedy looking good, why not go with a 6 man staff for a few weeks to lengthen things out as Greene and Lodolo need another month +. Ashcraft, Williamson, Abbott, Weaver, Lively, Kennedy. Might save the bullpen too for August.
I could see that. We have to see Rhett a few more times with his limited pitches. I liked the way he used the quadrants, and got swings on the fringes.
A 6 man rotation means 1 less bullpen arm which equals more innings for the remaining bullpen pieces. If you want to save bullpen innings per reliever, you need longer starts or more relievers. I personally think we are getting carried away with Kennedy’s performance. It was 5 innings and 4 runs. 7.20 ERA. Not saying he doesn’t deserve another start but at best it was mediocre. An excellent bullpen performance colored the waters significantly.
Reds need to figure out a way to get to August and hope SP innings come from somewhere….a trade or return of Greene and Lodolo or both and some magic. Kennedy isnt Dan Straily( or maybe he could be) but having 6 pitchers with length is an asset to eat innings. Somewhere a long the way, someone is going to have to be available to be both a SP and long man to eat innings. Kennedy or Weaver or Lively fit that description. Duarte proved yesterday he s got 1 inning and 15 pitches and thats it. I give Bell credit for letting Kennedy go out in the 6th and he was gassed. Bell brought in Cruz and he peed down his leg walking guys and letting the Nats back in the game and creating the false impression that Kennedy had a bad start because of a 7.2 ERA. Bell easily could have pulled Kennedy after 5 and brought Cruz in to start the inning but he was trying to save the bullpen. Sometimes the bullpen hurts the bullpen. Kennedy may be a 1 hit wonder but he pitched great.