After a 5-1 road trip, the Cincinnati Reds are back home at Great American Ball Park. They will be kicking off a 4-game series with the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. Tonight’s game is an unusual one as it begins at 5:10pm ET and it will be on Apple TV+. You will need a subscription to watch the game, but they reportedly do offer free trials (info from the Reds with sign up links here).
Starting Lineups
Milwaukee Brewers
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Cincinnati Reds
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| Darin Ruf – 1B | Kevin Newman – 1B |
| Owen Miller – 2B | Matt McLain – SS |
| William Contreras – DH | Jonathan India – 2B |
| Christian Yelich – LF | Jake Fraley – RF |
| Brian Anderson – RF | Tyler Stephenson – DH |
| Andruw Monasterio – SS | Nick Senzel – 3B |
| Joey Wiemer – CF | Stuart Fairchild – CF |
| Victor Caratini – C | Will Benson – LF |
| Mike Brosseau – 3B | Luke Maile – C |
| Corbin Burnes – RHP | Brandon Williamson – LHP |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB | K |
| Brandon Williamson | 14.1 | 5.02 | 1.47 | 9 | 12 |
| Corbin Burnes | 63.2 | 3.68 | 1.19 | 24 | 59 |
| Links: Brandon Williamson’s Stats | Corbin Burnes’s Stats |
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Brandon Williamson
After a strong debut in Colorado, Brandon Williamson has run into some struggles the last two times out. Both outings saw him throw 4.1 innings and he’s allowed seven earned runs, walked seven batters, and struck out six in those 8.2 combined innings against the Cubs and Cardinals.
The splits for Brandon Williamson are quite big. Right-handed hitters have hit very well against him this season between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting a .950 OPS with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, while making plenty of contact. Left-handed hitters haven’t been given many chances to face him, but when they have there hasn’t been a lot going on. They have hit .260, but it’s been rather empty with only a few walks and no power.
Splits (AAA & MLB in 2023)
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 174 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 31 | .295 | .402 | .548 |
| LHH | 54 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | .260 | .315 | .340 |
Pitch Usage (AAA & MLB in 2023)
| 4-seam | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 91.8 | 87.4 | 73.8 | 81.6 | 84.1 |
| Usage | 46% | 10% | 11% | 20% | 12% |
Corbin Burnes
After winning the Cy Young award in 2021, Corbin Burnes has taken small steps backwards in each of the last two seasons. Still a very good pitcher, he has been giving up hits, home runs, and walks more frequently, and in particular this year his strikeout rate has fallen off of the map by comparison (12.6 strikeouts per 9-innings in 2021 and just 8.3 this season).
The splits for Burnes are strange. Left-handed hitters walk far more often and strikeout at about the same rate as righties do, but they had an OPS 311 points lower. When lefties make contact they simple aren’t turning it into much of anything. Right-handed hitters, though, they are showing well across the board against Burnes and have an .805 OPS against him this season. Over the previous two years the splits were much closer, with lefties doing a little better – but still quite poor – against Burnes.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 133 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 28 | .275 | .338 | .467 |
| LHH | 132 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 31 | .167 | .258 | .237 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 95.7 | 95.5 | 94.2 | 80.1 | 88.3 | 89.5 |
| Usage | 1% | 8% | 52% | 18% | 9% | 13% |
When and Where
- Game time: 5:10pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Apple TV+
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 90°, sunny, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
Joey Votto to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow
For the second time this year, Joey Votto will be heading to Triple-A Louisville for a rehab assignment. The Reds first baseman will join the Bats on Saturday as he takes another go at getting back into the swing of things after having shoulder surgery last August.
The All-Star voting is underway
If you are into voting for the All-Star game then now is your time to shine. You can vote now. Unfortunately you can’t vote for pitchers, but nothing is stopping you from writing Alexis Diaz in at other positions.
Standings
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Brewers | 29 | 27 | 0.0 | 52.0% |
| Pirates | 28 | 27 | 0.5 | 14.3% |
| Reds | 26 | 30 | 3.0 | 3.3% |
| Cardinals | 25 | 32 | 4.5 | 38.5% |
| Cubs | 24 | 31 | 4.5 | 14.0% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | ||||
Nick Krall still hates us.
What’s up with the weird 5:10 start time? I will be drivimg home from work and I can’t get WLW radio here in Central Florida (today or anytime for that matter).
If you pay for the MLB.tv you get audio free. I normally listen to that anyway just to avoid Sadak.
Larkinphillips I wonder if the Reds front office realizes how many people do this to avoid listening to Sadak?
There’s a postgame benefit concert for ALS and I’d imagine the game time is accommodating that.
That was the announcement earlier this week – Zach Brown concert after the game
EDLC may have hurt his chances of being called up for this series by his game last night. Clearly it won’t make a difference long term (in him being called up), but I can see not bringing someone up to the major leagues right after an 0-5 with 5 K’s. That’s a pretty brutal night.
Maybe he’s just getting bored down there and is waiting for the ultimate challenge. lol
The AAA manager joked after thebgame
“We finally found something he cant do. DH”
Going 0 for 5 last night will have absolutely zero impact on when EDLC is called up.
find it odd that the cardinals have a 10x greater chance of making the playoffs than the reds and the cubs have a 4 x greater chance. did they not just watch the reds -cubs series over the weekend
Sounds like ESPN big city bias!
Sounds like Dennis didn’t read who provides the playoff odds!
Reminds me of power rankings that MLB puts out I have literally lost all respect for looking at them when teams sweep teams they should lose to, and they barely move up the standings in a weekly bass I lost interest.
If I was a gambler, I would take the Cards and Cubs too.
I would actually take the brewers. Best pitching and Craig counsel just knows how to manage.
Anxiously waiting for this game to start 🙂 Missing Frield big bat against righty but will make due and kick this series off with a W.
I thought Friedl was fine?
Did I miss an update on his injury Tuesday in Boston to the contrary?
According to the Red’s front office, all the players are fine right before they place them on the IL. It’s been a pattern for a few years now.
Stinks that Friedl isn’t in the lineup tonight. The downgrade from him to Fairchild is huge.
Not denying the Friedl to Fairchild drop off but the net drop off is clear down to Benson, i.e. the Reds are probably weaker at 2 spots, not just one. Hopefully, he will show his big game in Boston was not a one off but given Burnes’ strong reverse splits, Benson has a big task ahead of himself tonight,
Was talking to a Brewers fan buddy of mine and he was saying that Milwaukee’s lineup tonight is pretty crappy compared to normal.
We’re in the nosebleeds at the bargain basement price of $84 each. Don’t care about fireworks or country music, but maybe some of it goes towards Lou Gehrig disease research. I have to disagree with the poor buggar. He was not the luckiest man in the world.
Just curious, can you place wagers from your seats via phone?
Not on mgm for some reason? I have a small bet on Draftkings
Special price for the concert?
That doesn’t make sense @indy. I paid 54$ for section 133 tickets tomorrow night. Maybe like Tom said – because of concert?
Reds playoff odds (3.3%) vs Cards (38.5%) pretty laughable. No one believes in the Reds’ chances. I certainly do. This offense is for real and has more weapons to come this season. All we need is some starting pitching stabilization, and we will be adding a couple weapons there too (Lodolo when back + Abbott).
The Cardinals are overrated in my opinion. I think the Reds are as at least as likely to win the division as the Cubs.
Oh no! One of the announcers says “phenomenal” every third word. I may have to turn the flipping sound off.
You’d make a rude hand gesture at a sound? How dare you.
I read that as “turn to flipping the sound off”
pretty sure I’m dyslexic
I do make rude hand gestures at annoying words, 2920. It’s an affliction but I probably won’t mend my ways at this point.
The Reds now clearly playing the super-2 game with Elly and CES. With Votto back soonish, a team full of infielders and a losing record I think it makes some sense. Or I at least see their thinking.
Our lineup this afternoon is embarrassing.
Rest Steer last night, not today.
Bring up EDLC and CES as soon as possible.
I am really off of the apple broadcasts
Will myers per charlie goldsmith has left shoulder injury and quoted houston june 16 is earliest chance to be back
Votto staying close with 2 games in Louisville then 6 columbus then 6 louisville
Looks like both myers and Votto are targeting that june 20 window . I think thats why CES and EDLC aren’t up
Roster crunch big time in 2 weeks
Myers should have about 20 days of rehab in AAA before he comes back…hopefully.
A shoulder injury is never good news for a hitter. They tend to linger.
Perhaps that explains why Myers has been exceptionally bad this year, but also gives us reason to expect he’s never really going to get any better.
Stephenson got the runner over. Good job.
Alright. That’s good baseball. Run scores on a grounder. Good job Senzel.
Reds literally manufacture a run
Absolutely. Can’t beat them with power then beat them with speed.
If this team was serious about winning Fairchild and maybe Benson would not be on the major league roster.
Well if they were serious about winning, with possibly first place on the line this weekend, De La Cruz and CES would be up here right now.
Apple TV putting up expected probability in corner of screen
Fairchild 17 % chance of getting on base and 44% chance of striking out
What does he do? K
Benson K
Good thing Fraley stephenson and Senzel just executed
Senzel 2 nice defensive plays
I am wondering what is going on with Fairchild, he is flat out swinging through a lot of pitches that look like the ones he used to hit very well at both AAA and with the Reds last season.
Hitting is all about seeing the ball well. Maybe that’s his problem right now.
By my off the top of my head reckoning he has K’d 4 of his last 5 PAs.
Well EDLC Kd five times last night so…..
How do you justify Fairchild ahead of EDLC, CES or even Hopkins?.
Pretty sure he’s optionable
Some sort of injury delay?
Yes Ruf the Brewers 1B collided with the barrier chasing a fly foul popup. Looks like he squeezed his upper leg against the barrier as his body rolled into the screening,
Thanks
Matt McLain is human. Little oopsie there on that throw to second. I’ll give him one more then back down he goes. hahaha
So what’s up w steer? I can’t watch the game.
How many more games do the Reds have this year that are on non mlb.tv packages?
Steer rookie of the month
Outstanding
Any idea why Steer is sitting tonight?
You would think coming home to play the divisional leaders in a big 4 game series and coming off of a great road trip…that you would want to put your best team out there tonight to grab the momentum in this important series. So I’m assuming there’s something wrong with Friedl and Steer healthwise?
Great for Steer, now let’s play him and also end the Fairchild nonsense.
Shaping up to be a battle of the bullpens!
I think Jim Walker & I are about the only real Fairchild supporters but I’m wavering. He just had 3 hits in a game at Wrigley, but he just can’t make enough contact. Burnes isn’t bad either obviously. Overall though you just can’t K 150+ times without hitting a bunch of bombs and he hasn’t been doing that
Yeah I’m a Fairchild fan as well but waivering. You can’t tell me that back foot movement ,he has when he swings , doesn’t take power away. He is all upper body when he drops that foot. Not sure how he made it this far with that swing.
I don’t know that I am wavering on Fairchild; but, I don’t feel the energy about him I felt through the 1st game in Boston.
I follow him on Statcast; and, he has had one of the highest rates of +90 mph EVs on the team, with nearly half of them 95mph or greater. All season long he has also maintained (until the last couple of days) a .330-.350 OBP. I figured once warm weather settled in a number of those 95mph plus EVs he was putting up, often for doubles, would start finding their way out of GABP.
But along the way I also noticed his swing and miss rate was climbing. especially versus LH pitching of all things and along with it his K rate.
Based on his sizable AAA background (.889 OPS; 25% K rate in 350+ PAs) and MLB in 2022 (.800 OPS; but 30% K rate in 110 PAs), he seems to be in a funk; and, guys in his situation cannot afford long funks.
Williamson pitching a good game. He needs to be like Weaver and try to give up solo shots. The two run homer and last games three run shot makes his numbers look worse
Was driving into the neighborhood with my dinner and errand stuff when India hit his bomb. Following on Gameday going forward.
Need to chase Burnes soon. Hope MattyMc can keep his streak alive with his next AB.
6 innings and 2ER’s from Williamson. I’ll take that anyday.
Time for the Crooked Number Parade.
Solid 6 innings tossed by Williamson! Nice!
There is just not enough pop in this lineup without Steer and Friedl.
Suck it up Burnes. It’s not like you are the only pitcher in the league getting screwed by the home plate umpires.
What did Burnes do to warrant that ejection?
Ran his mouth. Not getting the calls from the ump. Join the crowd Corbin.
Despite getting a called strike that was a foot outside.
That is for sure.
Williamson not bad tonight. Pretty good job.
Williamson down to a 4.29 ERA.
Better throw and they had him at 2nd
Need some hits. Two isn’t going to do it.
McLain may need a day off. He looks a little tired to me.
EDLC with RBI single to start game. Advances to third on error by RF and then driven in by CES on grounder 2b. I can’t wait to see those two added to the current Reds lineup.
Would be nice to have them tonight wouldn’t it?
Reds like to play with a short bench.
Sure doing that tonight.
Good inning by Sims. Reds need to score in bottom of 8th and let Diaz do his thing in top of 9th.
Nice bounce back game for Williamson.
The Reds really need new uniforms. Who dreamed up black uniforms for a summer game in a high humidity location?
I guess they’re cool for something different but I doubt the players feel real comfortable in them. Don’t the Reds know that black and red attract heat? It would be better for the players for them to stick with white and gray with trim.
Not a fan of the “Cincy” uniforms. Obviously designed by someone in New York or LA.
That makes little sense.
Angels, Mets, Yanks, Dodgers all have pretty clean, classic uniform designs.
Harry, I have lived in Cincinnati since 1985 and I can count on one hand the number of times I have heard native Cincinnatians use the term “Cincy”
Also, there is nothing else in these uniforms that “connect” the team to the city of Cincinnati. They could have used an outline of the Fountain, the Roebeling bridge or even a flying pig. But these uniforms have nothing that represents the City of Cincinnati.
At the Bats game tonight, De La Cruz rbi single in first inning, right fielder bobbled the ball, maybe goes 5 feet behind him. Elly never breaks stride and slides safely into 3rd. Wow
Just still too many outs in this line up. EDLC and CES could address this problem.
Friedl and Steer would help a lot tonight….but apparently not available. This is a very weak offensive lineup.
Just a poor job by the 4 -5 -6 hitters. Please bring up some better players.
+1000
A walk-off win against the Bernies would be very special.
Amen
Bat Steer for Fairchild, please.
Not having Friedl there really makes me say Stink. Fish. Pot!!!
K-child. It’s been a bad habit of late.
He is who he is. Generally over-matched at this level. With Friedl gimpy, not much we can do about it.
Gonna take some doing by the boys to hold them down in the 10th and get another shot.
Ump has picked a good time to miss two calls
Hold them to one or less .
Right across the knees Rowdy. Man the Brewers are whiners
Deep breaths – focus on this last out and then get to work on the walk-off.
I’m OK with the pitch around of Yellich.
Not sure I’m ok with Cruz coming in though.
I don’t like putting the winning run on third base. I would rather take the leftie/leftie match-up. Regardless, you are not going to win many games when you only get 2 hits.
Cruz has a Jumbo Jet ERA … 7.47
As in Jumbo Diaz?
And … EXHALE 😮
Reds can’t hit today. Lay one down and move him to third. Bring him home with sac Fly.
What a difference a day makes.
Last night Bell stuck with Herget until the game was a lost cause.
Tonight he pulls Young in a similar scenario.
Walk this off before the magic fades.
2 hits all day play small ball and bunt before the pitching magic, or luck, ends.
Burnes Cy young vs Williamson supposedly stinks and reds 2-31 yet tied in the 10 th
Why not just win
This team finds a way
Byrnes is a ridiculous pitcher but a miserable soul in milwaukee
Come work with DJ corbin!!!
Waisted at bat by McLain
Not watching the game but I literally cannot believe that we weren’t bunting with McClain leading off the 10th to get the guy to 3rd with one out to win the game. I literally don’t get it… especially in a game where you’ve got two hits total. What the heck am I missing here?
Q: “What am I missing here?”
A: David Bell
Hadn’t been HBP for a while and now 2x in this game 😛
C’mon Rake … finish this!
For the life of me, I don’t know why you don’t bunt and move the runner to third with less than 2 outs!
This is why you sac bunt. Banging head against wall.
Should have stole last at bat.
UGH
Perfect inning of what not to do.
The Red’s offense just looks terrible at times.
Need more depth. I know a couple of guys in case they’re interested.
Reds have used their 1st and 2nd tier relievers — now who’s going to pitch?
Just bad baseball. Bunt the ghost runner to 3rd then take your chances from there!
Manufactured a run earlier in the game. I can almost defend Bell here knowing that McClain was up and hitting so well. He hit it hard. Could have gone either way on that decision.
You are doing the other team a favor when you don’t sac bunt to win the game in the bottom of the 10th…just plain stupid
Couldn’t agree more…idiot baseball
Got a bad feeling about this
They need to bring up CES as a dh Stephenson simply doesn’t fit the bill. Catch him only and move him down in the order.
Agree totally.
Absolutely. Teams aren’t even treating him serious now. The game on the line and the brewers threw him 4 straight fastballs and struck him out.
+1000. Not done anything this year. Not clutch. No power. Not anything. Injury or not, he’s not getting it done. Can’t even put the ball in play consistently. One could argue Barrero provides as much value. Sad but true. Reds will have a tough time winning this game now. Almost had to walk it off last inning.
As I’ve been saying for 2 months now they need to trade Stephenson soon before he has no trade value. He is a poor catcher defensively and he doesn’t bring much to the table offensively… a big zero… time to move on. I can’t wait to hear why Friedl and Steer are not playing tonight. I hope there’s a legit reason.
Also curious to hear why McClain was not Bunning in the 10th to move the runner to third with one out. Most likely because Bell thought they would just walk Fraley to get Stephenson with a very high probably he would not get the run in from 3rd with one out….sad
Bell overmanaging again by not using his relief pitchers for more than one (1) inning!
Stephenson is killing this offense
At that point Cruz should have come home after knocking it down.
This is what you get when you are trying to win an extra inning game with a relief pitcher with an ERA of 7+
Doesn’t matter. They should have won last inning.
You got to go home on that when he knocked it down. Had the guy easily at home. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD .. BUNT.
Edlc just hit another home run where he thought he flew out. Lol
I guess striking out five times last night didn’t hurt him TOO bad. 🙂
1 run down can work. 2 runs down is problematic.
Didn’t some wise man say 2 hits won’t usually win you the game?
What a great ball game. Great pitching by both teams. Rallies stopped. Overall a good baseball game. Now Reds gotta battle back down two.
You just can’t win games when you only get two hits. Too many easy outs in this line up
Sorry they would have won with two hits. Bunt and a SFly and it’s over. Milwaukee gave them a gift and Bell was polite enough to give it to back.
Yeah, but they didn’t win did they?
Hey JB sorry that sounds more snarky than I intended. I just meant if you get only two hits you are going to lose most of the time. Of course you are right about the failure of not moving the runners over.
The Reds have nothing on the bench for a late game sub now as we are playing a guy short, yet again. This game was poorly managed and poorly played. The Reds lost this one much more than the brewers won this one. Shame as this was a game that could have been a bug win against Burnes.
Seems weird without Hader out there.
Had a chance to beat the Brewers with one of their best pitchers (and former Cy Young winner) on the mound. Too many wasted scoring opportunities (again) and bad decision making in the bottom of the 10th!
Reds not ready to compete yet for many reasons, to many easy outs in the line up, not a deep enough bull pen, refusal to bring up youth and most of all a manger who is a day late and a dollar short.
Wow the negative comments are out. Reds played a good game and bullpen as well. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Bell managed a good game
Kevin I usually agree . But not bunting is not good managing. The win was basically given to them.
I agree you bunt, however no guarantees the bunt is successful. If the ball falls as McLain hit it hard we would have a better discussion. Lol
IF he would have bunted all the naysayers would have been crucifying him for giving away outs. Managers get no breaks, 2nd guessers always correct, that is why they get big bucks, I guess.
You sac bunt…to win the game…. period
It’s just a ball game. No biggie
Casali keeps us alive with a double!!!
I didn’t think that ball would ever get down.
Night, all
Ball four called a strike on Steer. I literally hate umpires.
Spencer Steer should have walked, yet again a ball that was clearly a ball called a strike.
Oh well…
So I see Steer was available… but Bell just thought tonight’s opening game of a huge series would be a great time to sit him with Friedl also sitting… and just go with that
explosive batting order he put out there…wow. 1st game of a 4 game is huge…almost impossible to win the series now
Ball 4 on steer called strike 2. Umpire has been all over the place today. Came up just a tad short. This roster is still 3-4 players away from really competing,but they are a fun team to watch.
And get rid of Bell
Ironic isn’t it! If Cruz holds the fort in the top of the 11th, Reds win! Tomorrow’s and Sunday’s game take on greater importance if the Reds want to cut into the Brewer’s lead.
Tough one to swallow. Just couldn’t get a timely hit.
Cruz has now given up runs in 10 of his 14 appearances this year. His ERA of 7 is actually better than you would expect from how bad he has been this year.
It happens guys and gals. This division is still up for grabs and Reds are very much in this. Baseball is fun again in June!!
Bell is still the manager.
3 hits in 11 innings. Team 1-17 risp.
Hate to be the Cassandra, but if Reds get one win out of the series, it’s a huge success.
Kevin: The negative comments are because with the score tied in the bottom of the 10th when you only have 2 hits you bunt. You have to know the situation and that is not Bell’s strong suit.
Yep… amazing.
I disagree with all due respect Mark. Bell knows the situations and how manage. We critique him to death and it gets old. Does he make odd decisions, yes, however he is doing a good job. He has his team playing well and they never give up.
Sometimes I feel we as fans (self included) want perfection and that just doesn’t happen.
“Bell knows the situations and how to manage.”
An amazing statement in the face of what really transpires.
He knows how to manage because he’s the manager.
Because he ‘manages’ it is evident that he knows the situations.
Bell is the George Costanza of MLB.
Steer gets a strike call on ball 4 in the 11th. Bell squanders a golden opportunity in the 10th. And on the day the Reds are 1-16 with runners in scoring position. And a whopping 3 hits overall. I don’t know whether to think this was a huge missed opportunity, or the Reds were lucky to even be anywhere close in this game. A frustrating night, but how frustrating will all depend on the next three games. Take 2 of 3? Moving on. Lose 2 or 3? A huge step backwards.
I’m probably in the minority but I’m ready to trade Stephenson somewhere. Bad defensive catcher, no power, non-competitive at bats. The other two catchers are far superior defensively and right now are maybe better offensively. Am I wrong?
I’m not too optimistic about the rest of the weekend. It’s starting to be like other spans of good play over the last couple – everyone gets pumped up and the Reds proceed to crash and burn, killing the illusion of competitiveness. Anything less than a split is a bad outcome and obviously they now need 2 of 3.
Kevin: I just don’t understand you Bell supporters, bottom line the team is 26 and 31, if they were in 4 of the 6 divisions they would be a lot further back. I don’t know about you but while 26 and 31 isn’t as bad a expected but it’s not good enough to nake Bell out to be the answer as a manager.
Honestly it gets tiresome to read the comments from some fans. I mean it is easy for fans to manage from the couch or chair. I have been vocal this year about Bell’s decisions, however in reality he has the inside scoop on who is available, who can bunt and who can’t, I mean he is a mlb manager. We are fans.
I just don’t understand the fans who act like it’s so easy to manage. When in fact it’s the players who play, pitch, field
Having managed several decades in Fortune 500 companies, I absolutely agree that management is not easy. And yes, sometimes we know things that aren’t public knowledge. But, all too often, a manager’s failure are simply that – HIS failure. Either by virtue of experience, education, or personality, some individuals simply aren’t cut out for management. Bell is one of those people.