Cincinnati will be looking to pick up a series win on Thursday after taking two of the first three games in their series against St. Louis. The Cardinals will be hoping to salvage a series split on the day. Whichever team comes out ahead will avoid falling into last place in the National League Central division all by themselves. Today’s first pitch is set for 12:35pm ET.

Starting Lineups

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Lars Nootbaar – CF TJ Friedl – CF
Nolan Gorman – DH Matt McLain – SS
Brendan Donovan – 3B Jonathan India – 2B
Paul DeJong – SS Jake Fraley – LF
Alec Burleson – 1B Tyler Stephenson – DH
Juan Yepez – LF Spencer Steer – 1B
Tommy Edman – 2B Nick Senzel – 3B
Andrew Knizner – C Stuart Fairchild – RF
Oscar Mercado – RF Luke Maile – C
Miles Mikolas – RHP Luke Weaver – RHP

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB K
Luke Weaver 31.2 6.54 1.52 8 31
Miles Mikolas 54.2 4.77 1.48 14 43
Links: Luke Weaver’s Stats | Miles Mikolas’ Stats

Luke Weaver

In five of his six starts this season Luke Weaver has allowed four or more earned runs. He hasn’t walked many batters, but he’s given up a lot of hits and a boatload of home runs.

His splits are interesting. Weaver has walked almost no right-handed hitters and he’s struck out plenty of them, but they are crushing the ball when they do make contact – hitting .347 with a .667 slugging percentage. Strangely, left-handed hitters are making tons of contact against him, but they are hitting just .250. They aren’t hitting for as much power against him as righties are, but they are doing a good amount of damage when they do get hits.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
RHH 79 26 6 0 6 3 21 .347 .380 .667
LHH 61 14 4 0 3 5 10 .250 .312 .482

Pitch Usage

4-seam 2-Seam Cutter Curve Change
Velo 93.9 93.6 86.4 82.1 85.9
Usage 45% 1% 15% 14% 25%

Miles Mikolas

In his first five starts of the season Miles Mikolas allowed 41 hits and 21 earned runs in 25.1 innings (7.46 ERA). Since then he’s made five more starts and posted an ERA of 2.45 and given up just two home runs in 29.1 innings.

Both lefties and righties have hit well against Mikolas this season, but lefties have hit him better. They are making less contact, but doing a bit more damage when they do make contact as evidenced by a .314 average and a .500 slugging percentage against him. Left-handed hitters have also walked nearly twice as often. Right-handed hitters aren’t drawing many walks, but they are hitting .287 against him and showing solid power against him.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
RHH 131 35 3 1 5 5 22 .287 .328 .451
LHH 114 32 10 0 3 9 21 .314 .363 .500

Pitch Usage

4-Seam 2-Seam Slider Curve Change
Velo 93.5 92.7 86.6 86.1 76.3
Usage 25% 27% 25% 20% 4%

When and Where

  • Game time: 12:35pm ET
  • Where: Great American Ball Park
  • Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 64°, partly cloudy, 0% chance of rain

News and Notes

Connor Overton has Tommy John surgery

Earlier this week it was announced that Connor Overton would undergo surgery on his elbow, but it was not specified exactly what kind of surgery he was going to have, only that it *may* end his season. Well today we found out that he underwent Tommy John surgery – first reported by Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer – and will definitely be out for the rest of the year.

Standings

Team W L GB Playoff Odds
Brewers 27 22 0.0 64.1%
Pirates 25 24 2.0 11.2%
Cubs 22 26 4.5 19.1%
Cardinals 22 29 6.0 39.8%
Reds 21 28 6.0 1.2%
Playoff Odds via Fangraphs

76 Responses

  1. rednat

    probably our strongest lineup from an offensive perspective

    • greenmtred

      It does look good, but a team with a player named NootBaar may have a psychic advantage that even the absence of Goldschmidt and Arrenado won’t dampen. Go Reds!

  2. Dennis Westrick

    Neither Goldschmidt or Arenado starting for the Dirty Birds today so there is Hope!

    • greenmtred

      So other teams use a getaway day lineup? But I see that Bell is up to his old tricks: Newman isn’t in the lineup after two multi-hit games. Foe shame. For shame.

      • LDS

        RH pitcher. The more interesting thing is that Myers isn’t in the line-up today either. Some undisclosed injury or story. The Reds aren’t known for benching highly paid non-performers.

      • greenmtred

        Myers, per Reds website, “has some things going on,” but is available. Maybe what’s going on is that he isn’t hitting his weight and this game could be a momentum shifter. He is an interesting case–hitting something like 60 points below his career average, and his career is something like 11 seasons.

      • Jim t

        @LDS was reported that he had a minor injury.
        Really confused by Meyers. His history suggest he should not be playing so badly.

      • LDS

        Thanks. No question he should be hitting better. He has a rather lengthy injury record. Maybe they’ve caught up with him.

  3. SlippinJimmy

    I’m happy to eat my words: Stephenson played well last night. Hopefully he can keep it up.

    Hopefully the Reds can finish off this series, despite whatever may lie in wait for them from “The Manager To Be (UN)Named Later™”

  4. TJ

    I don’t watch too many games, but I get to watch the Reds play the cards. Besides Senzel looking uncomfortable in left field, the overall defense looked good the last couple of nights. The cards always seemed to capitalize on a walk and a play not made by the Reds, but that hasn’t played out. The other thing, I used to read all the comments and see how everyone hated Red’s third base coaches….getting Reds thrown out at home too much or not sending them home enough. House must be doing a pretty good job

  5. Dennis Westrick

    “Luke, I am your Father”! But seriously, Mr. Weaver, give us 5 good innings today and let the bullpen do the rest!

  6. David

    Interesting that Fairchild starts in RF, and Wil Myers is not starting.

    Friedl leading off and Jon India batting 3rd?

    If the Reds beat the Cardinals today, and take two out of three this weekend in Chicago against the Cubs, I think they could be in 3rd place in the division.

    Interesting that the “odds makers” give the Cardinals a 39.8% chance of winning the division/ wildcard and getting to the playoffs with their frankly crappy starting pitching.

  7. Mark Moore

    Would love to send these Dirty Birds and the 70s PStache starter out of town missing feathers.

    Time to shoot down some Angry Birds and Kick some Piggies!

    • Dennis Westrick

      Put salt on their tails and buckshot in the bird feed!

  8. Kevin H

    I still say Bell and Johnson did a great job with bullpen last two games.

  9. Mario

    Hope Myers on the bench on a semi permanent basis. He may be worst player in the league this year. He is no star but I did not foresee that.

    • Kevin H

      His career stats show he isn’t all that bad, however this year has been by far very disappointing to say the least.

      Someone said let Fraley and Senzel platoon in lf and De La Cruz come up to play third. If that means DFA Myers go for it!!

  10. Mark Moore

    Weaver’s first 3 have been very efficient and effective. Would love to see that continue for about 6 innings. Of course, we need to back him with Crooked Numbers.

  11. old-school

    weaver 45 pitches in 4 innings. More of this.

    • Melvin

      If we could get our starters to get through six innings with the lead consistently it would make a big difference wouldn’t it?

  12. Melvin

    56 through 5. Can’t complain about the pitching so far for sure.

    • Mark Moore

      P-Stache is pretty much matching him.

  13. Mark Moore

    71 pitches through 6 is “cruising” just like Thrall said.

    Now let’s back him, boys!

  14. Mark Moore

    That, folks is the “run and hit” variety of a “hit and run”. Successfully set up for RoY to break the spell.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      It’s beautiful when it works. 🙂

  15. Mark Moore

    That stinks. Let’s see if Rake can come through here.

  16. Mark Moore

    Stink.Fish.Pot!!! 😮

    Let them off the hook.

  17. Melvin

    Well THAT was disappointing. 1st and 3rd with nobody out and didn’t score.

  18. Tom Mitsoff

    NICE play by Fairchild! Took away extra bases.

  19. Tom Mitsoff

    Time to get someone up in the bullpen. Two straight well-hit balls.

  20. Mark A Verticchio

    That was really nicely done be Maile.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Yep, huge play. That means bottom of the lineup for St. Louis in the eighth, and then hopefully Diaz for the heart of the order in the ninth.

  21. Beaufort Red

    I’ve said, go to two catchers and Maile should be #2.

    • Votto4life

      Yeah I have no idea what is the advantage of carrying three catchers, especially when one can’t hit a lick. Wasted roster spot.

  22. Tom Mitsoff

    I would argue that today’s lineup is the best Bell can put on the field, balancing both offensive and defensive needs, with who is available on the current roster.

  23. Kevin H

    Wow a called strike on Fairchild a foot outside

  24. Votto4life

    This will be a tough one to lose

  25. Mark Moore

    the missed opportunities are looming VERY large now. Freakin’ HUGE large.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Yep, the first and third with nobody out that resulted in zero runs is huge.

  26. Edgar Ramos

    Typical of big game. Come out flat offensively. But we can come back

  27. VaRedsFan

    Our pitchers seem to fall asleep in holding runners on. The free stolen bases they allow have come back to haunt them many times.

  28. docproc

    Did anyone else notice that the batter blocked Maile’s throw to Sims to try to nab the runner at the plate? It wasn’t intentional, but he was out of the batter’s box and he definitely altered Maile’s throw.

  29. Kevin H

    Wow a ball called their to India. A clear strike

  30. VaRedsFan

    India with a 2nd chance to be the “RBI guy” see if he can come through here.
    I’d rather have him leading off FWIW

  31. LDS

    Busenitz in to put the game out of reach.

    • LDS

      Wow, he got through the inning. Can the Reds score?

  32. LDS

    Steer and Fairchild deliver – now what?

    • Harry Stoner

      Three 85mph sliders and three swings and misses.

      • GPod

        could he not have used a pinch hitter there?

      • LDS

        @GPod, yes, he could have. But all he had was Casali, Newman, Barrero, and Myers. Newman can’t hit RH’ers, Casali & Myers can’t hit anyone this year. Barrero has a higher average against RH’ers than Maile, but Bell isn’t going to ever do that. So Maile.

      • Harry Stoner

        Having a left hand hitter on the bench would help.

        I think that was some of the appeal of bringing up Ramos, but that is moot now.

        Fraley, Stephenson, Senzel a combined 0-12 today.
        That’s not going to get you there.

    • LDS

      Not much it seems. Kind of an embarrassing follow up to yesterday’s game. Probably should have pulled Sims when it was clear he was losing it. Oh well, the Reds are solidly in last place now. The Cubs this weekend could really be the clincher.

  33. Melvin

    Too bad. Great starting pitching today.

  34. DataDumpster

    1) The Cardinals unbelievably are looking pretty bad. Arenado and Goldscmidt are looking ragged after the Card’s hot streak. Not surprised they were benched. Poor hitting and pitching round out the lackluster…
    2) The Red’s starting pitching by the “nobodies” has been very good. Weaver was outstanding today. The hitting support was not. All used up yesterday perhaps.
    3) Yes, the umps at home plate have been noticeably bad. I wonder how many umpires fell sick or otherwise chose to shut it down after Covid. Lots of AAA quality guys quickly promoted. Unavoidable circumstance. If the robo ump is better, it would be there already.

    This game just ended. A split is fine given the circumstances, both teams pretty much deserve this outcome.

  35. Mark A Verticchio

    21 and 29 isn’t awful but it could be better. I still think they could use EDLC and CES to add some pop to this offense. Would love to win 2 of 3 in Chicago but it won’t be easy. The problem is the team can’t win 10 of 12 or something like that to actually get back in the race.

  36. Kevin H

    Good ball game and great pitching.

    Reds had chances, just couldn’t come through.

  37. Dennis Westrick

    Another one (1) run loss! I think that makes 12 for the season! Absolutely have to score with runners on the corners and NO outs! Fundamental baseball gentlemen! Don’t need a HR in those situations, just a sac fly or a “seeing eye” single or even an infield single!

    • Kevin H

      Games like these happen. Some days it goes your way, some days it doesn’t.

      • Melvin

        “Games like these happen. Some days it goes your way, some days it doesn’t.”

        Can I write that down and use it? 😉

    • Dennis Westrick

      Correction! Thirteen (13) one-run losses by my count! Win half of those we are a 500 club!

  38. Optimist

    I haven’t seen it, but was the Friedl out at the plate a TOOTBLAN?

    • Tom Mitsoff

      No, not at all. He was running from third on a groundball and the fielder elected to throw home.

      • Optimist

        Thanks – sounds like it was simply a reaction play – good to be aggressive.