There aren’t enough words in the dictionary to accurately describe how insane it is to watch Elly De La Cruz at times. The Cincinnati Reds top prospect was once described by Fangraphs as a prospect that if he “booms, it could be a boom on par with the one that created the universe”. That was written about him prior to the 2022 season. He went out and was one of the best players in all of minor league baseball that season, winning the Triple Crown among Reds minor league players along the way. This season he began the year on the injured list, but he’s since returned and has been in Triple-A. He’s been on fire for two plus weeks now, but on Tuesday night he was trying to create the universe, and breaking records in the process.
Elly De La Cruz started out his night with a walk in the 1st inning. In the 3rd inning he doubled. That hit came off of a left-handed pitcher, and as a switch hitter it meant that De La Cruz was hitting right handed. The ball came off of his bat with an exit velocity of 118.8 MPH. That’s the hardest hit baseball this season in both Triple-A and Major League Baseball.
Two innings later he came back to the plate. A new pitcher was in the game for Columbus and he was a right-handed pitcher. That flipped Elly De La Cruz around in the batters box. No big deal as he took the 87 MPH slider and hit it 456 feet to center field for a home run. It came off of the bat at 116.6 MPH. No switch hitter has ever had two batted balls in the same game at 116 MPH or higher and only two players have done it in Major League Baseball since we’ve been tracking it (2015). Those two players are Aaron Judge (6 times) and Giancarlo Stanton (2 times).
The next inning De La Cruz got back into the batters box. Another pitcher was on the mound – former Red Phillip Diehl. He’s a lefty in case you had forgotten. Switched around again, the Reds top prospect took a 93 MPH fastball from Diehl and hit it 428 feet to center field for his second homer of the day. It came off of his bat at 117.1 MPH. No player has ever recorded three batted balls of 116 MPH or more in a single game in Major League Baseball (since 2015 when we began to track it). No one has done it in Triple-A this season, either (this is the first year it’s been tracked for all of Triple-A).
But wait, there’s more. Not only has no individual player ever done it, no team has been able to do it in a single game. That’s not the end of it, though. JJ Cooper of Baseball America pointed out that there are 10 MLB teams who have not had two different 117 MPH+ batted balls since 2015. There are six teams who don’t even have one.
The night wasn’t over for De La Cruz after his second homer. Louisville entered the 9th inning trailing 9-6. It had been 9-2 earlier in the game. The game was tied up at 9-9 and the bases were loaded with two outs when it was time for De La Cruz to step into the batters box. He didn’t see a single strike, walked on four pitches, and picked up the game winning walk-off walk.
Whew. What a night.
The season started out rough for Elly De La Cruz. He went 1-21 in his first 21 at-bats with Louisville and he piled up plenty of strikeouts along the way. Since then he’s had 57 plate appearances and he’s hit .377/.421/.811 and cut his strikeout rate down to 24.5% over that stretch.
Whatever they are putting in the water in Louisville, they need to bottle it up and sell it. Between what is happening with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Chuckie Robinson, and TJ Hopkins…. there’s a whole lot of hitting going on.
Looking forward to when the Reds call him up, so Bell can sit him in favor of Newman 😉
Why make me so sad first thing in the morning ?
Because it’s true
Except it’s not true, not even close.
Leading at-bats for the Reds this year, in order:
India
Stephenson
Steer
Friedl
Myers (not young)
Fraley
Barrero
Newman (not young)
Senzel (only below Newman because started year on IL)
Barrero has one more AB than Newman this season. He leads Newman in WAR, RBIs, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. Newman leads Barrero in BA against LH’ers. On advanced metrics, it’s not even close. Barrero’s EV is about 5 higher than Newman and slightly about league average. His Hard Hit % is nearly 14% points higher than Newman and again, above league average. Newman is below league average on both. His defensive runs saved is better than Newman’s. Barrero has been party to 13 DPs, Newman 5. His fielding pct. is slightly lower, having 2 errors vs. 1, but as many here have noted, one of the errors shouldn’t have been called against him. Regardless, metrically, Barrero should start every game at shortstop, with Newman occasionally starting against a LH’er and Newman DH’ing against LH’ers otherwise. There is no justification for Bell starting Newman over Barrero in any circumstance other than injury. To suggest that Bell wouldn’t treat EDLC similarly is naive at best.
LDS – …but except for those things why should Barrero be playing instead of Newman? 😀 haha
wkuchad, now why’d you go and short circuit what was shaping up to be a perfectly good Bell rant with some silly things like facts, and stats, smh
Barring someone having an injuring or needing a day off, I would personally never start Newman versus a righty. And I agree with you that I’d play Barrero more than he’s currently playing (though many posters are ready to kick him to the curb).
But none of that negates my post above. All season Bell has been playing our younger players more often than not.
“To suggest that Bell wouldn’t treat EDLC similarly is naive at best.” – There is zero chance this happens. You think Bell would be allowed to potentially sit the top prospect in all of baseball for Newman. Well, your own word of ‘naïve’ is all I can come up with for that.
Except he didn’t @Tampa Red, he offered one piece of context free information. A Bell rant isn’t necessary. Any objective person can read the stitches on this fast ball.
Absolutely @WKUChad, he would. Barrero was the Reds 2021 MiLB Player of the Year with a .300+ batting average, 19 home runs, and a .900+ OPS. That’s top prospect performance. Yes, it’s been derailed by the injury and last year was nothing to write home about. But, without playing daily against all pitchers, we’ll never know if 2021 was a MiLB anomaly or he really is a potential all star. Bell isn’t the guy to shepherd the Reds prospects like EDLC into the MLB. He’s proven that already. So, leave them in Louisville where they play every day. Hopefully, Krall is inclined and allowed to end the Bell/DJ era and build a winning culture and team. It’s not possible under Bell.
“he’s proven that already” – Barrero alone proves nothing. You’re choosing to ignore India, Stephenson, Steer, Friedl, Fraley, and Senzel.
On top of that, despite everything you’re saying, Barrero still has more at-bats than Newman this year.
Barrero seems to be getting handled very carefully. None of us really knows why that is. Lots of other young players are playing. Everything wrong with the Reds is not a Bell “thing” unless that is the lens one chooses to look through. FWIW, Barrero looked lost last year and has at times this year. Perhaps the Reds are trying to bring him along slowly. I’d like to see him playing more; I think we all agree on that point.
Barrero lost? Perhaps, but still outperforming Newman. So what does that say about Newman? And @BK, I would argue that he hasn’t handled Friedl consistently. As for Senzel, he’s hardly young anymore. Trade him while he’s “hot” because I suspect his current performance has a very finite shelf life. Stephenson should be primarily catching and end the 3 catcher stunt. India, I’ll give you that. Steer, a .300+ hitting 3B, has been shifted to 1B and hasn’t adjusted well thus far. With respect to Bell, again ask yourself how you’d like working for a guy that routinely favors folks that aren’t as good at the job as you yourself are. Then you’ll quit believing the “the players love him” BS.
@LDS. Barrero is starting at SS tonight. I think we are in a situation where neither barrero or Newman is viewed by the Reds as the NEXT shortstop and both will be gone by August 1. Im a Barrero guy and believe he should be playing every day. But, if you look at the Reds behavior, he’s sharing time with Newman. Thats insane if the Reds view Barrero as part of their plan.That tells me both are just placeholders and insurance depth at SS. I don’tthink McLain is the next primary SS either. He has 5/6 errors this year at SS. Hes certainly a great plan B.
EDLC is the Reds franchise SS with McLain #2 on the depth chart. It would not surprise me if the Reds are showcasing both Newman and Barrero equally for trades in July. Newman goes to a team needing an insurance policy as the 26th guy to a team that had an injury and Barrero goes to the Royals or A’s or Nationals for a high upside AA pitcher and becomes the next Reds Jose Siri cast off. EDLC and McClain will take both of their spots. It’s just a question of when.
It also would not surprise me if Senzel plays a lot and is similarly traded in July if he continues his good defense and elite hitting against lefty pitchers. As the factoid downloading Sadak said last night, hes in the top 5 in MLB hitting against lefties. If he keeps this up, Reds flip him for more young pitching and the infield is suddenly way lighter in august with barrero, Senzel, and Newman traded. CES takes over at first once the Votto saga plays out. Myers cant be this bad so he gets some GABP specials in June and July and some NL East team adds a righty bat and Krall gets more pitching.
That’s pretty optimistic @OS. But rationally, the Reds can’t play new prospect every few hundred ABs. What happens if EDLC or McLain is hitting around .200 after a month?
I agree with you LDS. I was supportive of Newman as a backup once a week at SS and 2b and 3b but that hasn’t played out. I think the Reds don’t believe in Barrero but do in McLain and EDLC and will commit to both. They have to clear the blockers first and that wont happen for a few months.
They cut Moose!!! Who saw that coming?
@LDS, Friedl has progressed beyond all expectations–not a good data point. I would love to see Barrero play more and Newman less. I would also like to see him string together a bunch of quality at-bats. I see overall progress, but he clearly regresses at times, too. Barrero developed some pretty bad habits last year and is in a race against multiple high-performing prospects to carve out a long-term role with the Reds. The Red’s approach with other young prospects has been much better.
P.S. I’m not sure Senzel has much trade value right now. I doubt there’s a GM out there willing to buy on two weeks of performance.
And weren’t you, in referencing Friedl’s success, calling advanced stats–hard-hit ball % specifically–a myth? Clever selectiveness, and everybody does it. I’d generally rather see Barrero get more time than Newman, but there isn’t really much of a performance gap and Newman has been relatively productive his last few games. Shouldn’t sit a guy after a good day, right?
@greenmtred, I simply supplied what many here: EV, HH%, etc. I couldn’t bring myself to quote BABIP. Regardless, as I’ve said before, these tell you what happened not what you should try to do. Barrero is outperforming Newman across the board. Simple as that.
LDS: it probably tells you what you should do in the same way batting average or home run totals do, and the more games the stats reflect, the more weight they have. Not for any given game, of course, but over time. Barrero seems to have a higher ceiling than Newman and is outperforming him this season, but they’re both dismal and Newman has played decently in several recent games. Even Barrero’s defense deserted him last night–no errors charged, but two throws dropped and a backhand play that he might have been expected to make.
The news from L’ville bodes well for the Reds. Word is undoubtedly getting around.
Lousiville is pretty loaded. I mean you got Benson who is starting to put it together.
Then you got elly, CES, McLain, Hopkins and Robinson all hitting extremely well.
Pitching is pretty meh…thats why they are losing, I mean I wish stoudi and williamson could put it together, but I think I been hearing williamson has had only 1 or 2 bad starts same with stoudi.
Benson? What is he and his sub .200 BA putting together. This guy is horrible. I doubt he will ever see a Reds uniform again, unless he’s watching them on tv.
Where are the folks that said he needs to start in AA again?
EDLC is another level of talent. Our Louisville sluggers need to get up here soon.
Amazing, especially as a switch hitter and off three different pitchers. EDLC may struggle to adjust in the majors. Same for CES, Matt McLain and TJ Hopkins. Chucky Robinson and Wil Benson have already done so. But the ceiling for all 6 of those guys is clearly high, and for EDLC and perhaps CES, off the charts high. In a season where the Reds aren’t expected to contend for a playoff spot, would you rather have four or five of those six guys, or Kevin Newman, Luke Maile, Wil Myers, Stuart Fairchild, and Henry Ramos? Perhaps Fairchild and Ramos will continue to improve, but I’m pretty sure the other three have maxed out their upside. The more games we see the Reds and the Bats play, the more I say play the kids. McLain, CES, and Robinson now. EDLC soon. Go Reds!
They need to be up here now. Especially CES, McClain and Robinson, though I really don’t know how much more “seasoning” ELDC needs in Triple A at this point. If he only hits 250 at the ML level, he’s one of the best hitters on the team. Cmon Bull, LETS GO!
I’d say caution is still advised on Benson. Doug noted in his overnight Patreon notes that Benson in his last 13 games is hitting just .227 but has an OBP of .460 largely on the strength of a 30% BB rate (and also has a K rate of 30%). What we saw at MLB is that Benson did not hit enough to support the 19% 2022 BB rate from AAA and had an elevated K rate at MLB.
For me, unless he slugs at .500 (currently he is at .328 at AAA), this is just more of the same and not a step forward.
https://www.redsminorleagues.com/2023/05/10/cincinnati-reds-minor-league-game-review-may-9-2023/
+1000000 Jim!
The walks disappeared in ST and in his early season time with the Reds. I would say he’s taken a big step forward, but I agree he has a few more steps to go before he gets more time on the big stage. His May numbers (10 games) are 280/538/600. From my perspective, the K-rate is still too high, but his slugging appears to be coming around.
Like with so many of these players, even the ones that are “on fire,” the sample size at this point is pretty small. More consistent players deliver more value than players that ride the sine wave of high peaks and deep valleys.
@BK, Benson’s walks disappeared when ST got to the stage where legitimate MLB and top 4A pitchers were all he was seeing; and, continued on through his tenure with the Reds during the regular season.
It doesn’t matter how good someone’s eye and plate discipline are if they can’t put the ball in play effectively or foul pitches off until the pitcher throws them 4 balls. Sadly, this is where Benson seems to be when he faces top drawer pitching.
Perhaps, he did draw three walks today, two came against the opposing pitcher (#35 on MLB’s prospect list) befuddled most of the Louisville Sluggers. He hit rock bottom about two weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how well he can sustain his May surge.
I don’t know whats going on at AAA? Catcher is batting 8th and hitting .425…no big deal. I found Louisville games on Fan Duel. Just go Over when Abbott isn’t pitching. Its not rocket science.
2024, 13 Position Players!
McLain .339 BA 1.139 OPS
Friedl .325 BA .866 OPS
India .307 BA .862 OPS
EDLC .284 BA .929 OPS
CES .371 BA 1.142 OPS
Marte .276 BA .829 OPS
Fraley .236 BA .691 OPS
Stephenson .254 BA .669 OPS
Steer .252 BA .762 OPS
Robinson .425 BA 1.083 OPS
Barrero .226 BA .623 OPS
Senzel .268 BA .748 OPS
Hopkins .320 BA .989 OPS
I think Marte will arrive in 2024, but likely not on Opening Day. I like how you broke down the positions players (nine starters/four on the bench). As of now, I see Senzel in that top nine. I see Fraley platooning and the catchers rotating in a more traditional manner next year. That leaves seven players getting daily playing time and using the DH to keep those seven rested.
I hope you’re right about Senzel, I’m just trying not to get too excited about what he’s done recently. For now I’d put him in the leadoff, and move India to the 3 hole so India can get some RBI’s.
Fraley will probably always be a platoon, he’s not a complete hitter. He does come up with clutch hits on a fairly routine basis.
Senzel has a lot to prove this year. In his last plate appearance last night, he had two consecutive center-cut 95 mph fastballs from a RHP and didn’t barrel either. He’s excellent defensively at 3B and okay in CF and 2B. He also has good speed. He needs to show he can hit RHP. If so, he’ll earn regular time. If not, he’s a decent bench player that can hold the weak side of a platoon.
Is there a way to watch this mornings game without actually being g there?
If you have MLBtv, the minor league games are included. You can purchase MiLBtv separately if you don’t want to pay for MLBtv, though.
Update: The Bats game is the free game of the day today. You can watch it here – https://www.milb.com/live-stream-games – or on the MLB app like you would any MLBtv games.
MILBtv is cheap too. Well worth it.
If we can get some W’s for Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft, the rebuild looks great. Tons of talent at AAA. Not only that, but the players seem to gel together too.
I think it’s a safe bet that the Reds intend to contend in 2024. At some point this season, Abbott, McLain, CES, and De La Cruz will all be called up and begin gaining ML experience. With Abbott, that will give the Reds four talented, young (inexperienced) starters. Position player-wise next year, the veterans will only have three years of playing time and no postseason experience.
Which brings me to my question… Do you guys see the Reds acquiring at least one proven veteran starting pitcher and one position player this winter to supplement the young core? I’m not talking about a Wil Myers or Mike Minor. Rather, players that have postseason experience and leadership experience that can still play at an All-Star level. The Scott Rolen type of acquisition. The Reds have a nearly blank slate as far as payroll, and have prospects to trade from as well.
Personally id focus on extensions first, but supplementing the rotation should be a huge priority this offseason first and foremost. Gotta be smart with acquiring pitchers though, im not against shorter deals.
The biggest thing holding them back though is a player has to want to come here, any big FA will be expensive.
With the expanded playoffs it’s not at all difficult to “contend” for a wild card spot. They could even do so this season if they would spend or deal at the deadline. They do look to contend for the division title next season, but it will take more than just the MiLBers arriving. Another Castellanos like deal might do it, but they’ll need additional pitching of some sort. I suspect they’ll still look to the 2025 season to make a serious FA signing or trade of prospects for a very good/all-star level player.
2024 is the season we see how far all the internal development takes the team.
The one and only worry I have about EDLC, is that, as some others have noted, he has a LONG swing. Well, he also has tremendous bat speed.
One of the things he will have to do to adapt to the Majors, where almost all the pitchers have better stuff and control than even in AAA, is perhaps to shorten his swing with 2 strikes.
This guy, indeed, has almost “off the charts” talent. I hope the Reds see fit to promote him sooner rather than later.
1) McClain, like …RIGHT NOW! Jose Barrero seems to be in some immense David Bell dog house, and is not playing. Send him back to AAA, and bring up McClain, and sit down Newman.
2) CES, as soon as possible. I think he is ready now. DH/1st base
3) TJ Hopkins; he is a little older than EDLC, and maturity -wise, is ready
4) Chuck Robinson; drop Maile and Casali, and make Chuck the number 1.5 catcher. He and Stephenson can trade days.
And of course, Elly De La Cruz. He is, indeed, something else.
@David, why do you think he’d sit Newman for McLain?
McLain with another HR today! What does he have to do to get called up 11HRs’ .344 BA?
He turned around a 99 mph fastball. No cheapie!
yep, and the pitcher is a lefty with better numbers than our Mr. Abbott. Crazy numbers from Gavin Williams, 0.73 ERA 0.73 WHIP. Last season this guy had a 1.96 ERA, and .095 WHIP. This guy looks like he’s going to be a good MLB pitcher.
HEs former first round pick and Guardians #2 overall prospect. Probably some offensive struggles for the bats today against a stud. Guardians know how to draft and develop pitching. Love to see the Reds get the top college pitcher in the draft at #7
Wow. What to do with all of these guys. I have no idea what the Reds are planning to do. One thing for sure they can’t afford to mess it up.
I read C. Trent Rosecrans’ recent article about (maybe) why the top prospects aren’t being called up. He said that McLain is considered to be a better prospect (defensively) as a second baseman, rather than shortstop. If that’s true, then it would be a disservice to all involved to bring him up and play him at shortstop. When you bring him up, you put him in his best defensive position to give him a chance to succeed. The issue, of course, is that is where Jonathan India plays — and not exactly at a stellar level at all times. So perhaps there are discussions underway about when and how to address that situation. India is basically the team’s best player at the moment, so you don’t just move him off his position without some conversation about what comes next for him.
And what would come next is not so simple for India. His college position was third base, but Nick Senzel has earned that spot with his defense and hitting (at least so far). That leaves probably DH and outfield for India.
My question is why hasn’t this potential move been addressed yet? Why hasn’t India been moved to LF in the late innings of blowout games (like this past Sunday)? Get his feet wet in a lower pressure situation. It’s not like the Reds’ management hasn’t seen this situation coming for the better part of a year now. They had no problem switching positions with Senzel, Suarez, and now Stephenson.
India has not played OF as a pro or collegiate athlete. So, no one should be surprised that the Reds haven’t moved in that direction. We’ll hear that India is taking flyballs before games long before he’s put out there in a blowout. Bottom line: there’s zero evidence that anyone who works with the players daily thinks it’s a good idea.
If 3B comes down to India or Senzel, that will be a very easy choice for the Reds. First, Senzel has played OF and can do so at a Major League level. Second, Senzel has not shown he can sustain Major League-level performance. Third, Senzel is likely behind Steer in the pecking order right now and Steer has logged time in the OF–both players need to show they deserve to be Major League starters. Lastly, India is playing at an all-star level right now–that’s the kind of player teams build around.
In my view Senzel hasn’t earned anything yet. He’s doing much better but has a long way to prove he’s THE third baseman. Even if he does one has to ask how long before an injury?
If India truly wants to be the “leader” of this team, tell him he’s the next Pete Rose and the team needs him to move to LF so they can put the best team on the field and he can’t say no without burning himself
@DHud, why are you confident that India moving to the outfield would improve the team?
@BK granted, IMO:
1) I think reds are short 1 x OF
2) scouting reports seem to be McClain is better defensively than India
3) India’s defense at 2B already seems marginal
Moving India to LF gets both into lineup and potentially solidified outfield of India-Friedl-Fraley(and a RH PLT if you’re into that)
@BK I also acknowledge I am not a scout/coach/or front office for this team
I don’t have in depth report and eyes on the experience seeing these guys play or talking to them to know personalities. There are also probably a dozen other viable directions this team could go
Just as a fan who follows this team a lot, if I were GM for a day or starting a franchise in MLB 23 The Show, that’s the route I take to put my best 9 on the field
@DHud, I’m with you on getting the best nine into the lineup. McLain, Senzel, Steer, Friedl, and Fraley have all played outfield. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steer start playing outfield when a viable 1B (Votto or CES) is on the roster. I see ample versatility among the current and emerging players to allow the best nine to play daily. However, it may be the offseason before we get a better feel for where players will land defensively.
@BK maybe. Would be a much less “public” move of anyone off a position
As far as names you mentioned, I just don’t see the athleticism from Steer to play OF. Could he handle it, probably (I mean Adam Dunn did for years, yeah?). But I just see better options. And could be simple correlation, but moving Senzel back to 3B seems to have saved his career. If I’m the reds I ride that as long as I can
Since the calendar flipped to May, Benson has also been on a hot streak.
His stats:
.292 BA, .514 OBP, .625 SLG, 1.139 OPS
He’s actually been hitting much better for the last 3 weeks or so, but has really turned it on in the last 10 days. Maybe he’ll get another chance later this season.
I wonder if anyone has been watching Benson’s AB’s, has he shortened his swing? Maybe he’s just not pressing anymore, his BB went up almost immediately after he was sent down to AAA.
Like I have said for a long time, De La Cruz is going to be a superstar. I am a critical thinker, and I honestly think the Reds will have a team that can go to the World Series in a few years, if the owners will add the additional needed players. Of course. this means they will have to spend some money, so I know there an element of wishful thinking on my part.
Who in their right mind would be driving to a game at GABP from the north and not keep right on going to Louisville? The entertainment value down there is unbelievably higher.
I live just outside of Louisville, and I still drive up to see the Reds for most of my baseball games during the year.
I really enjoy Great American Ballpark and everything the Reds have done to make games enjoyable. The food is substantially better that Bats games (this is not even close). Unlike the Bats, you can bring in soft coolers full of snacks and non-alcoholic drinks to Reds games. I have three teenagers, and that alone has saved me a ton over the years. Every concession line and even the playground has TVs set up so you don’t miss any part of the game. They do a great job there.
Product ON the field is more important, but both teams have been entertaining so far this year.
During my brief stay in Cincinnati, the teams were perhaps even worse than current, but the cheap “Top 3 (or was it 6?) Row” tickets and the food kept us coming to Riverfront.
Brats and Metts were the staples.
Do they still sell those at GASP?
I thought I read somewhere that mettwurst was totally a Cincinnati thing.
I’ve never found them elsewhere.
Occasionally, I’ll turn up some bratwurst down here in Central Texas which always reminds me of Riverfront.
@ harry, I think they have Metts, but Im such a brat guy, I never deviate. I got Big Red Smokies way back when but the Brats,sauerkraut and mustard have been a staple. I skip the peppers and onions which you can add…But Brats are outstanding….just dont order before the game because they need to sit on the grill a few innings…
Reds game experience is great.
Sounds like the Louisville Bats hitting coach needs to be promoted too