The Cincinnati Reds needed a comeback and extra innings last night, but that’s exactly what they got in a 10-inning victory over the San Diego Padres. The two teams get back at it this afternoon to wrap up their 3-game series where the winner of the contest takes the series. First pitch is set for 4:10pm ET.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
|
San Diego Padres
|
| Jonathan India – DH | Trent Grisham – CF |
| TJ Friedl – CF | Fernando Tatis Jr. – RF |
| Spencer Steer – 1B | Juan Soto – LF |
| Tyler Stephenson – C | Xander Bogaerts – SS |
| Jake Fraley – LF | Matt Carpenter – DH |
| Nick Senzel – 3B | Jake Cronenworth – 1B |
| Stuart Fairchild – RF | Ha-Seong Kim – 3B |
| Kevin Newman – 2B | Rougned Odor – 2B |
| Jose Barrero – SS | Brett Sullivan – C |
| Luis Cessa – RHP | Seth Lugo – RHP |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB | K |
| Luis Cessa | 21.2 | 9.55 | 2.22 | 9 | 9 |
| Seth Lugo | 27.2 | 3.58 | 1.30 | 6 | 26 |
| Links: Luis Cessa’s Stats | Seth Lugo’s Stats |
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Luis Cessa
After getting crushed against Philadelphia on April 16th, Luis Cessa has rebounded a bit and allowed just five runs in his last two starts, covering 9.2 innings with just one walk. He’ll look to keep the walks down again against one of the top lineups in the league.
This season the splits have been bad no matter how you want to look at it. But there’s a significant advantage for left-handed hitters against Cessa this season. They are hitting .413 and they are slugging .761 while walking more than they’ve struck out. Right-handed hitters are hitting .385 and slugging .519. They haven’t homered against him yet. Righties are also walking nearly as often as they are striking out. Cessa, overall, hasn’t struck out hardly anyone this season – he’s currently rocking an 8.1% strikeout rate. That rate is far and away dead last in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 60 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | .385 | .441 | .519 |
| LHH | 51 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | .413 | .451 | .761 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 92.3 | 92.5 | 81.8 | 86.7 |
| Usage | 22% | 17% | 40% | 21% |
Seth Lugo
A free agent signing from this past offseason, Seth Lugo has gone from reliever with the Mets to starter with the Padres. And that transition has gone well so far. He is coming off of his second worst start of the year as he gave up four runs and two homers against the Cubs last week.
The splits this season have been interesting for Seth Lugo. He’s pitched much better against righties than lefties. They have an OPS nearly 200 points lower. But righties are making a lot more contact against him than lefties are – they just haven’t been able to do a whole lot with that contact. Lefties have struck out at a high rate, but when they’ve made contact they’ve been able to turn it into hits at a high rate. Last year his splits were the opposite, as he held lefties to an OPS of .514, while righties had an OPS of .776 against him.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | .246 | .295 | .316 |
| LHH | 57 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | .302 | .351 | .453 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | 2-seam | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 93.7 | 93.6 | 87.2 | 79.2 | 80.6 | 87.5 |
| Usage | 36% | 15% | 6% | 37% | 5% | 2% |
When and Where
- Game time: 4:10pm ET
- Where: Petco Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 63°, cloudy, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
Chase Anderson traded to Tampa Bay
Waking up to see that the Reds made a trade got the blood flowing quickly. Then seeing that it was a trade of 35-year-old Chase Anderson lessened the excitement a little bit. Anderson, who has been in Triple-A this season with Louisville, is joining the Rays organization. As of now the return has not been announced.
Graham Ashcraft is on top
Hey, look who leads the NL in bWAR pic.twitter.com/5OA2QEf9tD
— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) May 3, 2023
Standings
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Pirates | 20 | 10 | 0.0 | 29.9% |
| Brewers | 18 | 11 | 1.5 | 65.6% |
| Cubs | 15 | 14 | 4.5 | 23.1% |
| Reds | 13 | 17 | 7.0 | 0.8% |
| Cardinals | 10 | 20 | 10.0 | 27.6% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | ||||
Doug you have two 2nd basemen listed for the reds.
India is at DH today. At least he was the last I saw posted. On the bWar listing, notice too that DeSciafani made the list and the Cubs appear to have scored with the Bellinger acquisition, over .300, 7 HRs, .973 OPS, and 161 OPS+. The Reds could have afforded him easily.
Well, that’s just more Krall bashing here, and frankly….I won’t stand for it! Okay, sitting down now. Let’s bash on!!
Yeah, Bellinger was certainly an option the Reds could have taken. Doing well in Cubbie blue.
Wonder where Henry Ramos, a switch hitter (means he can bet left handed) is today? Probably a much-needed day off.
But Newman gets to play 2nd base today. Oh boy. Gritty veteran presence is oozing out of him. Skip Schumacher, where have you gone?
I thought Bellinger, given his age, was a good target for the Reds. Excellent risk/reward play on a one year w/options style contract. But then I didn’t think even the Castellinis would go into the season with a $70sh million contract, over $40 million of which goes to Moustakas and Votto. Moose is hitting much better in Colorado than he did with the Reds and Votto, well, he’s still not hitting at all. So it goes.
Easy does it.
Moose is hitting .222 w 1 hr and 9 rbi for the Rockies.
OPs < .700
Also, Krall may have gone after Bellinger, but Bellinger wasn’t interested. He was definitely one I would have liked to of seen them pursue for the reasons you mentioned. I was disappointed when they let DeSclafani go. Glad to see him having success.
I’m a rule breaker…. what can I say?
*runs to edit*
Would love to come home 3 games under 500.
Does anyone doubt McClain or EDLC couldn’t duplicate or improve upon Newman’s OPS right now? As the season progresses and these two prospects check that last box for experience, it will increasingly be harder to justify Newman’s presence on the roster.
Hoping against hope Cessa will spin a gem. What a momentum swing if the Reds could come home 3 games under in a division that doesn’t appear to have a clear frontrunner (does anyone believe the Pirates are for real? me neither).
There’ll be teams looking for infield depth including the Seattle parent club who are thin there.
It doesn’t matter if McClain or EDLC could put up better numbers than Newman or any veterans on the big league team.
It’s about player development. McClain has five weeks in AAA. EDLC has even less. The last thing the Reds should do is rush their prospects.
The Reds are not making the play-offs this season and likely not next year either. If they are ever going to make the post season again, they must allow their best prospects time to mature.
Mostly agree with this, but any prospect with good production for 200-250 ABs should see MLB this season. The problem is playing time. Do not call anyone up and sit them. Newman and Myers both should be gone at the deadline – that has been the Reds method for a few years now and it has worked well.
McClain is dominating AAA. Not ready? Rushed prospect? Scoffs. If you love Barrero and Newman, just say so! Now I agree on ELDC. He is in fact not dominating AAA and his strike out rate is sky high. CES is also kicking it but sure if you want to say small sample size, let’s put Steer down for 3 weeks and see if he can duplicate it. I am not a gambler but I would bet $$$ he cannot.
0.8%. Let’s go baby!
Let’s hope today is NOT the day we learn our ABCs! (A)nybody (B)ut (C)essa!
See what I did there/ Clever he is says Yoda!
Thank you Mr Saturday Night
Speaking of Yoda, Star Wars night on Friday. Be there I will.
Fourth-place Reds keeping 3 games over last-place STL Cards and trailing third-place Cubs by 2 and half games.
Sincerely I don’t have big expectations today about Cessa facing this heavy Padres’ lineup but baseball is unpredictable so anything could happen
A pitcher who can’t avoid contact against the Padres? Yeah… I don’t have much faith it’ll turn out well. But as you said….
The fathers are struggling. Maybe they are due a breakout? Nah, I’m guessing a 3-2 game.
3 games ahead of the Cards is the highlight of the season for me so far. Yes, we’d rather it was at the top instead of the bottom. But it is the Reds and they don’t lay claim to last place before the season ends, I’ll be stunned. Barring a surprising surge at the trade deadline and I’m not gullible enough to believe that’s going to happen.
Same. I am also interested to see if the Pirates can hold off the Brewers and Cardinals. I think they have a fair chance. Cards are going to have to pick up 10 games on the Pirates. Of course, it can happen, but I think the Pirates have a good shot of winning the division.
Hope the wind is blowing IN today at Petco Park!
Let’s go Reds
An afternoon of Pig Kicking in store 😀
As others have said, hoping Cessa can keep it in the park and find gloves on our defense.
So Reds have off day tomorrow and Monday.
I wonder if reds would carry a 5th bench player and one less bullpen arm
Just know that a 4-2 road trip sounds so much better than a 3-3 road trip!
May 3, 1987: Eric Davis slugs a trio of home runs and drives in six to lift the Reds to a 9-6 win over the Phillies at Veterans Stadium
While everyone is fawning over the mighty Padres, the Reds only have 2 more losses than the Friars!
Hmm. Not sure what Freidl was thinking.
What was Friedl doing out there?
TOOTBLAN
Hmm Cessa holding the opponent to a .398 average. I’m thinking that’s not good.
Cessa survived the 1st inning! One (1) down, eight (8) more innings to go!
I would put a lot of money down that Cessa isn’t going nine today or any day.
Cowboy noting that Kim “ain’t Babe Ruth” yet appears that’s how he gets pitched by our guys.
Fraley doing stuff like that really makes me like him. He went a far piece to get there in time.
Once again, we dig a fairly deep hole to start a game. Cowboy commented earlier that the guys know Cessa is coming with a breaking ball and will do THAT when he uses it 3x in a row.
Cessa is just terrible
I think the Cessa experiment needs to come to an end.
Nice job by Senzel and Steer. Nick keeps looking more comfortable over there each time the Handyman inserts him.
When you run weaver and Cessa out there every 2 out of 5 games, you are hoping your 3 young guns are perfect otherwise you are 2 and 3 at best. Meanwhile Newman grounds out to the pitcher.
Abbott coming soon? 🙂
Big bummer to watch Cessa go through this again on the same day we trade Anderson to Tampa
Also just to get all my gripes out in one post, how bad does that Balcazar news suck! Safe to say his 2023 season is done? He was off to a great start and I still hope he moves to Dayton with this same group when he returns
Senzel looks really smooth at 3rd.
Bell is waiting for the Padres to put this game away before taking out Cessa.
He has only given up two runs. Definitely hasn’t looked good but come on
He gave up 7 base runners in 3.1 innings including allowing the first batter to reach every inning. Come on.
Yeah but he battled through and minimized the damage. I understand we have a lot of off days coming up, but it is a very long season; and with starters like Cessa and Weaver the bullpen is bound to be called on for long games many times this season…the more you can preserve the bullpen the better. At least let him go until he gives up another run or reaches a high pitch count.
I think the defense minimized the damage. My beef is not with Cessa but with David Bell. For whatever reason, he is willing to raise the white flag on getaway days, which amounts to a third of a season
We share in that opinion on Bell. But I would have let Cessa go a little longer…until he gave up another run or got to a high pitch count…and I would not have been waiving the white flag. That being said…I should not have put, “come on” at the end of my comment…I understand your point, but I get very tired of Bell having a hair trigger on the starters
Thanks DW. I think we are on the same page.
oops they must have RLN on a tablet or phone in the Reds dugout and read your comment 😉
Fairchild has not taken advantage of the chance he has been given with Myers hurt. That should be an easy decision when Myers comes back. Players not hitting at all right now, Steel, Fairchild, Newman, Barrero and quite honestly Stephenson. All 5 are in the line up today. I know Bell doesn’t have a lot of choices but there are guys in triple A who could not do any worse.
2 weeks ago, Senzel would have been on that list.
Patience. A baseball season is really long. If you demoted players for not hitting for a week, you’d just have a constant shuttle running between AAA and MLB all season.
You can say that but Fairchild, Newman and Barrero have never been high quality hitters.
Last year, Fairchild hit .279 with a .374 OBP with a 140 OPS+. That was in about 100 ABs, so it wasn’t a tiny sample size.
Barrero, likewise, was one of the best hitters for the Reds in the minors before his injury. He hit .303/.380/.919 before his callup in 2021.
But yes, Newman is absolutely useless.
Coming into today’s game, Fairchild had an .875 OPS over the prior 7 days (16PAs). His OBP was .375, SLG .500 and batting average .286. That’s about the same as the amount of time Myers has been out.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=faircst01&year=2023&t=b
Today’s chapter of “Cessa on the Mound” comes to another ugly end. Can Young work multiple innings and hold the Friars down? And then can we find some way to score?
And then THAT happens … I hate to Clete on a day game, but I’m thinking there is some daily news in my future. Plus, I’m warming up one of the grills to fix some chicken breasts and peppers.
Brett Sullivan killing the Reds today.
Young should be saved for high leverage and/or late inning situations…not the 4th inning, down by two, with a runner on first.
Yeah I’m a little surprised by that.
Kind of sad, but Cessa actually lowered his ERA today. Young gave up another HR though.
Cessa may have some value as a reliever, but he is not the answer to the starting rotation question.
That we can agree on
Ben Lively with another good outing today for Louisville now 4 and 0 with a 2.33 era on the season.
As polarizing as the Newman Barrero day to day is…. This isnt going away any time soon
McLain will stay in AAA
Newman and Barrero will continue to share time
I do believe the master plan is McLain will be a Reds middle infielder at some point this season, but not as soon as many folks want.
Newman is 1-2 and hasn’t hit the ball pass the picture yet. Lol
Pitcher
2023 is the 1st taste of AAA for both McLain and CES. Neither is on the 40 man roster yet.
Barring some major injury imperative, I suspect they have 6 weeks and up to 2 months before being called up
Barrera is playing mostly SS. Against LH’ers he on occasion will move to CF to get another RH hitter in lineup. Newman is a utility man. Neither are performing well.
Breathe Sadak.
Been on the road for the last hour! WLW doesn’t reach down to Central Florida! Apparently Cessa couldn’t cease with the walks!
What was the exit velocity on Senzels liner?
98.7
Reds have had some pretty rotten luck today. They’ve smoked two line drives, one was caught by the pitcher, the other caught by the 3rd baseman.
If either of those had gone for hits, the game could be very different right now.
Woulda, shoulda, coulda! The Reds have wasted numerous scoring opportunities in many games this season due to lack of plate discipline, poor baserunning, etc.,!
Wow, their LHHs are smacking around our LHPs. Who knew it was possible for a lefty to hit a lefty?
David Bell says:
“Fake News!”
Inconceivable
Chicken and peppers are grilled and resting. Nightly routine for my wife and I is starting. Time for me to officially call Clete.
May or may not be on Friday. Not thrilled at having to deal with yet another app/platform for a game. We’ll see if I can get it on a free trial via my Roku account.
Later, friends.
Enjoy
Reds are entering the look to trade deadline …, look to to AAA… look to the draft… look to 2024 part of the season
Made it to early May!
Starting pitching ends the season on May 3rd.
Reds Killer Soto strikes again! Will they ever learn?
One of those games again. Decent amount of hits but not able to string anything together
Another walk (to Tatis, Jr.) prior to Soto’s bases clearing double! Imagine that! Why not challenge Tatis, Jr. with 2 outs? Tatis, Jr. has been back from his 80 game suspension for using PEDs how long? 2 weeks?
Winning a game other then when one of the top 3 starters is pitching will be basically impossible this year….but the Reds are not going to hardly win any game when your scoring 1 maybe 2 runs….this offense is hard to watch
Please, no more Cessa, Weaver or Sanmartin…
+10,000
Why is Fairchild on a MLB roster ?
Man, our bullpen is gonna be spent by June 1st. We are going to need at least 3 new relievers – where will we get them?
They must replace Cessa and Weaver ASAP!
Obvious to us, why not the Reds management?
Let’s face it folks! Baseball is as much a cerebral game as it is physical! Unfortunately, there are not a lot of neurons firing in the Reds dugout!
Reds had 8 hits but only scored 1 run! The Padres had 2 more hits (10) but managed to score 7 runs! New math?
Finally, only fitting that Newman make the last out of the game! On the bright side, the Reds did manage a split on this west coast road trip! Something they haven’t done a lot in the past!
Board the plane, fly back to Cincy and get prepared to play the White Sox. Facing another old Cardinal nemesis, Lance Lynn, in the first game!
Someone had to make the final out of the game. But it being Newman is somewhat poetic. Just not much on the bench for a pinch hit. Had Newman gotten on, would Bell have stuck with Barerro? It would clarify his thinking considerably to have seen that scenario play out.
You said Bell and “thinking” in the same post! Stop it!
Seriously, the good thing about baseball is there is no need to dwell on the last game no matter how bad it was!
Move forward and start a new winning streak on Friday!
The Reds should call up Abbott. He turns 24 years old on June 1.