The Connor Overton experience hasn’t gone well this year. After having an ERA in the spring that was over 15.00 he had struggled in his first two starts of the regular season. The Phillies made it three straight starts of struggles on Friday night, touching Overton up for five runs on five hits and three walks in 3.0 innings and they never looked back as they cruised to an 8-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies (5-9) | 8 | 13 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds (5-8) | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| W: Walker (1-1) L: Overton (0-1) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
It didn’t take long for the Phillies to get on the board. A 1-out single by Trea Turner was followed by an RBI double by Kyle Schwarber that gave Philadelphia a 1-0 lead. Connor Overton then walked Nick Castellanos, but worked around that jam to get out of the inning with just that one run. Philadelphia added to their lead in the 2nd on a long solo home run by Edmundo Sosa.
In the top of the 3rd inning it was the Phillies playing add on once again. Kyle Schwarber walked and scored on a Nick Castellanos double. Then Brandon Marsh tripled before scoring on a sacrifice fly to make it 5-0. Cincinnati would get one of those runs back when Jose Barrero singled and then later scored on an RBI single by Jake Fraley.
When the 4th inning began it was Kevin Herget taking over on the mound for Connor Overton, who exited with an ERA of 11.45 on the season. He would work around a 2-out double by Bryson Stott to keep the Phillies off of the board. Herget tossed a perfect 5th inning, but the 6th inning didn’t get out to a good start as J.T. Realmuto singled and then Herget hit Alec Bohm to lead off the inning. After a fly out, Herget got what he was looking for on a ground ball to Jonathan India, who fielded the ball and fired to Jose Barrero at the bag, but Barrero lost his grip on the ball as he transferred the ball from his glove and the Reds only got one out on the play. That was all for Herget as Reiver Sanmartin came in to face the left-handed Bryson Stott. The move paid off as he flew out to left to end the inning.
Sanmartin returned to the mound for the top of the 7th. The lefty had to work around a walk and a single, but he completed the frame and held the game at 5-1. Spencer Steer remained on course towards the Rookie of the Year award with a walk and a steal to lead off the bottom of the 7th. Jonathan India then picked up a 2-out RBI hit to make it 5-2.
When the 8th began it was Sanmartin back on the mound. He got a ground out to start the inning, but then gave up a single. That led to a pitching change and Fernando Cruz took over, striking out the next two batters to end the inning. Cruz came back out for the 9th and gave up back-to-back singles to start the inning, but then he struck out the next two batters. Unfortunately you need three outs to finish an inning. J.T. Realmuto doubled in a run and then Alec Bohm singled in two more to make it 8-2.
Cincinnati would need a big rally to make a comeback in the 9th inning. They would get one run when Jonathan India hit a sacrifice fly to bring in Nick Senzel, who reached earler in the inning on an error. That wasn’t nearly enough as the Phillies evened up the series at one game a piece.
Key Moment of the Game
The 3rd inning when the Phillies put up three runs and grabbed a 5-0 lead.
Notes Worth Noting
Luke Weaver made his rehab start with Louisville tonight and threw 5.0 innings. He should be ready to come off of the injured list the next time through the rotation.
Spencer Steer now has as many walks as he has strikeouts on the season – 7. He’s hitting .326/.420/.558 in 13 games this year.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
Saturday April 15th, 4:10pm ET
Matt Strahm (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs Graham Ashcraft (1-0, 2.08 ERA)
There has to be a better option than Overton he is killing the pen and constantly putting this team in an early hole. He simply needs to go there has to be someone better in AAA or AA .
Yeah, Weaver
The Louisville Riverbats are 2 -11. Magic 8-ball says (regarding “someone better than Overton”)….ask again later.
Yes, the Reds AAA affiliate, at this moment in time, is pretty bad. And largely due to…get this…pitching. It stinks.
Luke Weaver did finish 5 innings tonight, and gave up 3 runs…to the Toledo Mudhens. Those guys from Toledo are not a reasonable fascimile of the 1927 Yankees.
And sure, call up Weaver. He might be better than Overton.
Once more..into the breech, dear friends.
Funny, during the off-season, so many here were commenting about how fun it would be watching Louisville play this season. It just goes to show you, Baseball is unpredictable.
Will probably be a lot more fun when EDLC and CES start playing. 🙂
And Louisville had Nick Senzel and Joey Votto most of those games.
Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo. Oh never mind
“Luke Weaver made his rehab start with Louisville tonight and threw 5.0 innings. He should be ready to come off of the injured list the next time through the rotation.”
Seems like they’d just have about have to replace Overton with Weaver whenever it’s feasible. Let’s keep track of Abbott. Sounds like he could eventually become part of a “Big Four”. 🙂 Fantastic Four?
I’d love Abbott to join the other 3, his left hand, and speed change would make a nice change of pace between Greene and Ashcraft.
Lodolo, Greene, Abbott, Ashcraft, that would keep a team from getting into a rhythm. Still need a 5th even if Abbott makes it to the Reds this year. I have no faith the Weaver, Cessa, Overton, Lively, Williamson, or Stoudt can do an adequate job.
“Fab Four”.
Was the point of moving Overton into the 3rd sport in the rotation to break up the short outing by Overton and Cessa? This bullpen can’t handle this kind of overuse. Cessa just needs a mediocre performance to stick in the rotation. Overton seems overmatched out there.
Steer is looking good, he maybe getting some confidence with his regular reps at 3B. If Barrero keeps it up, our lineup is going to start looking long to opposing teams.
Year after year of having half a team or worse. Sell the team, Bob. My adult children have never seen a truly good Reds team.
The Reds being bad in 22 and 23 was baked in by poor decisions made as much as 2 decades ago. The Reds kicked the can down the path by deferring part of Griffey Jr’s contract to a point where he is still making millions in 23. Even if you loved the Votto contract, which I did not, it was always going to end badly. Shogo last year, and 3M last year and this year are financial disasters. Wade Miley, whatever his terms were, was a financial disaster. The trades made in 2015 were poorly timed and concentrated on major league ready talent rather than high end talent.
Most of that falls away after 23. The continued addition from last summer’s great trades really good recent drafts is already being felt and will only get better.
Think about this, if the going rate of one WAR is about $8 million, and you allow for about 10 wins improvement from last year because the young guys are maturing, the Reds would have had to spend another $144 million to get to 90 wins just this year.
I think with what they have and what is coming from the system, they are organically at about 80 wins next year. That means the $80 million in additional payroll needed next year to get to 90 wins will be cut in half by all the dead money falling off.
With more than $43 million coming off in 24, it is feasible, and I think it is a standard the Castillini’s should be held to. The payroll would be about $120 million and they could be a tough team for years to come.
Personally, of all the position players in the minors, I believe Collier and Arroyo may be generational players… HOF types. My opinion.
I believe this is ownership’s plan.
Wade Miley was fine for the Reds in 2020 and their most consistent pitcher in 2021. They paid nothing to get rid of him- they gave him to the Cubs on waivers.
And wade spent most of the season on the IL.
Not worth the 10 mil he made last year. It was a good move.
(These are rare with Cheap Bob as the owner)
With the Bally BK, do not expect much next year.
It is a positive, in my view, that Greenfield Red feels present ownership has a plan for the Reds, which I hope is centered on winning.
This is a great post.
At least Vosler has answered the “who goes to Louisville for Votto” question with no doubt.
It’s strange . Vosler leads the Reds in home runs! How many other teams will send down to AAA their best home run producer? Zero.
Tonight’s game was nothing but a mess. Overton has no business being in the rotation and he continues to destroy the bullpen. Cruz’s pitching blew the game out of reach for the Reds in the ninth. Vosler, despite his timely first week heroics, is not a Major Leaguer. Senzel is only two games into his 2023 season, but it’s do-or-die time for him and his Reds career.
On the bright side, Herget took over for Overton and kept the Phillies off the scoreboard. India, Steer, and Friedl continue to hit. The lack of power from Stephenson concerns me a bit, but it’s still early.
Attendance was pathetic for a Friday night game with beautiful weather against the defending NL Champions. (Around 17,000). Can’t blame fans for staying home with the garbage product ownership puts on the field. Even the Fireworks Friday promotion seemed shorter than normal- didn’t it used to be well over twenty minutes? Tonight’s show was only fifteen. Maybe it’s just me being nitpicky because I’m in a bad mood, but even the music selection for the fireworks show was terrible. In the past each show has had a theme. I remember in previous years themes such as Hispanic heritage night, Jimmy Buffet night, Disney night, etc. Tonight’s theme wasn’t announced, but it seemed to be a bunch of random contemporary female pop music singers thrown together.
Senzel looking overmatched at the plate again. You have to wonder if the tail wagged the dog here—that he was given the latitude to declare himself fit to play with the big club….because to a man, the brass all seemed eager to get him back up asap when there didn’t seem to be a need given how well the offense has been clicking.
Why not roll the dice with Abbott like the Cardinals did with Walker? He looked polished in ST and it’s carried over to the season—he’s legit. The bar has been set so low by Overton and Cessa it seems implausible Abbott couldn’t outperform.
Well one of the weaknesses for this offense is a lack of good RH bat off the bench or versus lefties. Senzel can fill that role but he needs to start producing. I’m willing to give it a few weeks to see.
Don’t they have Fairchild for this role?
I dont see a need to rush Abbott after a few good games, would much rather he went to AAA to build innings first. Let the process play out, the organizations FINALLY developed a few good pitching prospects, why not keep him on the same path they were?
Why do people think Senzel is given favorable treatment because he was a 1st round pick. Does anyone have inside information to confirm this? Know Nick personally?
And I remember people were saying bring up Williamson last season or have him in starting rotation this season. No reason to rush Abbot.
Heck Volser was the next “Votto ” at start of season now some want him gone. Let the season unfold and maybe come June 1st re visit this discussion.
This isn’t directed at you, just a general observation I see on here at times. I myself am guilty of as well. Lol
As of mid-April, Friedl, Fraley and Myers should be the top 3 OF.
But when Myers or Fraley aren’t in the OF, they need a 3rd OF.
Benson was given that opportunity and failed.
And it would seem that either Fairchild or Hopkins should be given that chance, but the Reds have predictably opted to go with Senzel instead.
If it’s any consolation, Senzel’s track record shows he is likely to be hurt before too long. And then Fairchild or Hopkins may get their chance.
Sad some want people to get injured to push their agenda.
Beaufort Red, why do you want somebody to get hurt?
Just recognize some players have a tendency to get hurt, but geesh, don’t wish the injuries on anybody…
Senzel should have had a longer rehab. He wasn’t hitting yet in AAA and has had a long layoff without much build back time. It may not have made a difference but I don’t think he’s been put in the best position.
Pretty sure David Bell has a a hundo on Senzel for MLB comeback player of the year at MGM. Only possible explanation…
As for Andrew Abbott, I looked at a similar comp in AA domination in old friend Tyler Mahle.
Mahle pitched in AA 2nd half of 2016 and then started 2017 in AA Pensacola again as well. He was the Southern League player of the month in April, threw a perfect game and made the Southern League All Star team. He was promoted to AAA in June and made 10 starts with an ERA under 3 and went 7 innings in 7/10 starts before being promoted to MLB to make his debut in August.
I would let Abbott continue his AA dominance and learn to polish things and go deep in games. The Mahle time frame seems about right if he keeps his current trajectory. The Big 4 in August would be nice to see.
This is a good comp old school. I personally think Abbott would get hit hard at major league level. In watching video He doesn’t hit his spots like a major league pitcher should and he leaves the ball up in zone often. He needs more work.
But he is progressing nicely. The jump to AAA LOuisville will tell a lot. He seems to be the only pitching priority in the upper levels that is consistent and keeps his team in the game. Stoudt, Williamson and Phillips often struggle to get thru 5th innings. Big need at MLB team, they will never have a better chance of cracking an MLB rotation. Seize the day young pitchers!
I agree with most of that, except he pitched 20 of 25 games in AA last season. I’d give him 3 more in AA to make a “full season” of AA, then promote him to AAA. After that it’s always a question of who can answer the bell when it’s rung.
Overton not being very good was predictable. Either he’s not fully returned to health or he’s just not ML material. It’s a disservice to have him out there when the Reds have been largely competitive otherwise. I guess we’ll get to see soon enough if Weaver is any better.
I hope Brandon Williamson or Stoudt or Conner Phillips has a big 2023 season in the upper minors and blows the door down in making the starting rotation, but right now it’s hard to see them making that next step anytime soon in being a starting pitcher on a contending NL Central champion team. You can squint and see Abbott in the rotation in 2024.
Looking to next year the Reds are going to have to find an established starting pitcher on the FA market as a stabilizing force if they want to win the NL Central in 2024. Jameson Taillon was signed by the Cubs as a FA at 4/68 this off-season age 31 and career WAR 14. Old Friend Tyler mahle is pushing career WAR 10 right now with a full season to go and turns 29 in September .
If Mahle finishes 2023 healthy , why not bring him back as a mid rotation starter in the 4/60 type FA range to give the rotation a boost. ITs obviously a year away but SP is everything and a starting rotation if healthy of Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft/Mahle/Abbott is credible.
For that matter, they need a lefty hitter and DH. Josh bell got 2/33 for the Guardians. Jesse Winker will be 30, crushes righty pitching and loves Cincinnati. Bring him back at 2/28 as a lefty DH and bench bat. That would address 2 big holes with not much money and catching depth and bullpen could then be made whole to construct a playoff caliber roster.
India/Barrero/Steer/McClain/EDLC/Fraley/Friedl/Stephenson core 8
Winker platoon DH and bench bat
Acquire solid catcher
Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft/Mahle/Abbott
Bullpen- Fix it with Free agents and internal young arms who fall out of the SP mix.
This 2023 team is devoid of SP4/SP5 and a bullpen not to mention a Catching partner for TS and first base.
@old school LMBO. I woke up this AM thinking along the same lines as you. Evidence is my post right below yours. Have a great day my friend.
Where is Christian Encarnacion-Strand in your plans?
1b/DH. I had him as part of the core, but EDLC must have stolen all of my available consonants in my bandwidth so I forgot to include him.
Good post, old-school. Good thoughts.
Maybe even Sonny Gray if he can stay healthy this season. Have to wonder if he’d be interested in returning on a two-year deal.
Another reunion deal. You can be nostalgic all you want, but it ain’t going to happen. Gray will only want to go somewhere where he has a shot to win.
See how annoying that is?
Gray also has a connection with Derek Johnson from his days at Vanderbilt. So there’s that as well.
I think you missed the point, I think Gray could come back if pursued. My point was you were trolling more than disagreeing.
I’m not a big fan of bringing back former Reds. Let me ask you this, you’d spend 29M a year to get Winker and Mahle back. What if you could spend 16M more and get a pitcher that will be in the hunt for a cy young, and a L handed all star bat, would it be worth it? Shohei Ohtani 7/45M. That’s 2 big problems solved. I do that in a heart beat, but It’s just a dream, he won’t come here, and we won’t spend the money on him.
Ohtani, Lodolo, Greene, Abbott, Ashcraft
2B India
DH Othani
C Stephenson
LF Fraley
1B CES
RF EDLC
3B Steer
CF Friedl
SS (Barrero or McLain)
Spend 4/18M on Hader, and we’d still be under 100M
Hader, Diaz, Young, Santillan, SanMartin, Cruz
Now we could actually be a contender.
We can dream all we want, but that ain’t happening. If Ohtani was going to be a Red, it would have been when he first came to the U.S. after 2017 when Dick Williams pushed to sign him. Now Ohtani simply wants to win and all logic points to him signing a record-breaking contract with the Mets. I would guess a ten-year deal.
“but It’s just a dream, he won’t come here, and we won’t spend the money on him.”
I don’t disagree that it’s a dream. I would say the Reds are in a position to offer the most money to him. We got about 13M on the books next year. The Mets already have like a 350M payroll. There has to be a limit that their owner is willing to spend.
While I know this may not be popular to say but I am happy with how this season is playing out. While I know it’s early there are some positives. First let me start by saying I never expected the reds to be playoff contenders this year. With Moose gone and Votto injured we have 45 mil in dead payroll. Contending wasn’t a reality.
What I expected from the team was development. I believe that is happening. Steer, Barrera, Freidl, along with young team controlled players in India and Stephenson are playing regularly and producing. In the starting rotation Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are getting regular starts and doing well. In the pen Diaz is young and doing very well. Those players I consider building blocks for the future which I hope begins next year with some more help from the minors. We have acquired a lot of talent in trades and drafting. ( EDLC, CES, Abbott, Williamson) We also will have payroll to invest with the shedding of Moose and Votto.
Everyone of the young players on the major league roster are getting regular playing time and all are performing well. The down size is a couple of our next wave from the minors are injured and have not begun their season.
If things continue on the course that they are on we will need bull pen help, two starting pitchers and a couple of outfielders. Hopefully most will come from our minors, the pen will be a mix of what we have with some injured returning and one or two developing this year in the minors. A free agent relief arm is also possible. The outfielders could come from some minor leaguers changing positions or with the shedding of 45 mil in payroll a free agent. We also have the ability with a good farm system to trade some prospects to fill a need.
I hope the team stays the course it is on this year, DEVELOPMENT!!! There is know reason not to. To this point it has. Each player I listed above as part of our core has started the season very well. Hope they continue. If they do adding a few pieces is also possible.
There is one more thing I would like to add to the season’s to do list. A adequate goodbye tour for our HOF first baseman should be a must. Joey has been loyal and professional his whole career. A proper send off is a must.
Good post @ Jim T.
Ive said it before and probably many more times. This will be a fun yet frustrating year, seeing the youth develop while watching the gaping holes cost the team wins at the same time.
It is so refreshing to read a reasonable assessment, and a positive one at that, on this site. Thank you, Jim t.
I agree, Doc. And we got two–two!–clear and cogent posts in a row. Thanks, Old-school and Jim t. Talking about baseball can be fun.
And wade spent most of the season on the IL.
Not worth the 10 mil he made last year. It was a good move.
(These are rare with Cheap Bob as the owner)
With the Bally BK, do not expect much next year.
Trying to win a game with this pitching staff is like eating Oreos while brushing your teeth.
I really enjoy the analytical and positive observations for a change. My only question to everyone is why isn’t McLain ever mentioned in future plans? I was at spring training and saw a solid baseball player.
And an article on “The Athletic” recently featured Votto praising him and basically saying he reminded him of Cozart, but more athletic.
Considering the mlb.tv package, however it says reds could be blacked out as I live in northwest Ohio. Anyone have experience with games being blacked out having the mlb package
VPN will often work to get around the blackout. I “go to Canada” whenever Washington or Baltimore are involved.
I not picking on anyone who does what they have to do to get around the stupidity of the blackout when they are paying for a premium service.
However wouldn’t life make more sense if they just canned the blackout and used the available modern technology to track who watched what and divvied up revenue to account for that?
Looks like I picked the right game to miss due to travel and other stuff. Listened to just a little and checked Gameday. Just brutal!