With the season beginning this afternoon it’s time for the crew here at Redleg Nation to give their predictions about the upcoming season.
Record: See Below
I am already on the record that I see the Reds winning 70 games +/- 2 or 3 either way.
Why? Beyond the high ceiling of the top three in the starting rotation and Alexis Diaz at the back end, the pitching simply is lacking in both quality and depth.
I don’t think the Reds lose 100 games like many of the predictions say. It’s hard to lose 100 games. How do I know this? The Reds started the 2022 season 3-21, finished 3-10, and still didn’t lose 100 until the final game. There are a lot of “ifs” with this team to get to 72 wins, but with the talent in the first third of the starting rotation and the talent that likely will be with the team halfway through the season, 2023 is going to more interesting for the Reds than most people think.
On the plus side: Green, Lodolo and Ashcroft– barring injury which will probably happen to at
least one of them. A healthy Stephenson and India. This team will avoid another 3-19 start,
right? I like Benson’s speed and athleticism. Pulling for him to have a good start. Phil will not
insult and belittle Reds fans this year– hopefully.
On the negative side: David Bell is still the manager. Bullpen looks to be very weak. No
reliable fourth or fifth starters. Would Bell go with just a four-man pitching rotation given the rain
outs and . . . no, forget it. Votto and Senzel still out from injuries. Not sold with Reynolds at
shortstop. Big question with Steer at third.
Prediction: The cuts last week were encouraging. No Pham, no Moose this year, fewer
mediocre veterans. Odds on Reds wins are 65.5, I’ll be positive— 68.
I’m choosing to be optimistic. I think the incredibly weak back end of the rotation is going to prevent any kind of truly miraculous performance. But I also think making a dedicated effort to play the young guys is going to yield better results than people think. Also, if you want a bold prediction, I think Jose Barrero is gonna hit 25 homers this year.
I’m not sure that the team is all that much better on paper than the team last year. There’s plenty of upside in the top three of the rotation, but there’s no depth at all beyond that and if something goes wrong there it could go really south. Still, it’s tough to see the team start out 3-22 like last season, and after that poor start the team wasn’t atrocious. The team could start getting help from the minors for the second half, which could add some excitement to a team that probably isn’t going to be competing for a playoff spot this season. I’d expect the second half record to be better than the first half record.
The Full Predictions
|Jim Walker||70-ish wins|
Winning, in the end, may not even matter.
It’s another year lost of team control of our best players. It’s one step closer to the next re-build, post India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft. and, quite possibly a bridge between past, present, and future mediocrity.
Deja Vu all over again.
Follow the Reds minors. It’s the only sustainable thing we have going.
Usually agree with you Dave, but not this time. The 2015 rebuild was botched so badly, we’ve become jaded that all rebuilds will be. This one is different. The trades have been well timed to maximize return that was based on high ceilings rather being ML ready.
They have 45 mil of unproductive payroll this year. It will be almost completely gone next year.
If the front Office does not spend on 2025, we as fans will have legitimate reason to give up. 2024 is not the time to do so.
You, of course, are correct, Greenfield. A momentary lapse of reason!
I’m actively rooting for them to lose now. Preferably, in some comedic fashion. I want to see unforced errors, miscommunication, balks, and brain farts. I want to see no less than fifteen men left on base each game. I want to see foolish attempts to steal bases and missed opportunities to tag up. Most of all, I want to see blown saves. I want to see garbage relievers steal defeat from the jaws of victory.
They should lean into their awfulness. That’ll maximize the entertainment value! Play the game *ironically*. Turn themselves into the baseball version of the old Washington Generals. The Castellinis have already shown that they can’t (won’t?) field a World Series contender. But we still don’t know if they could field a “so bad they’re good” team. No *there’s* some suspense!
i tend to agree. WE could lose 100 games for the next 20 years and the national media won’t say a word. lose 120 games then that would at least gather some national attention and put at least a little pressure on ownership to shape up or ship out.
i am a little less optimistic than the rln writers. i just think we are entering a dark age, not just for the reds but for baseball itself. i think the lower tier teams will continue to struggle to find even serviceable position players to put out there. the law of supply and demand is definitely against the smaller markets right now. i think the level of mediocrity will eventually trickle up to teams like the dodgers and yankees and we will have some form of parity again but this may take years. I really see win totals in the 50s and even 40’s for teams like the reds , royals and marlins in the years to come.
I look at a guy like Nick Castellanos. good player, career batting average of .275. Not bad, but 20mil/year? common!
how can the reds really compete
I agree with you wholeheartedly, Rednat. I have predicted a record of 58-104 this season and I see no reason to deviate from that. And I agree with your assessment of small market vs. big market teams too. That is the way the CBA was set up and, quite frankly, under the current commissioner, I believe that is how MLB wants it to be.
I see the opposite. With the new rule changes, small market teams have a better shot to compete. No longer do you have to stack a lineup with power bats to win games. Speed and defense are once again premiums as are base hits. Playing small ball to win is back on the table. This allows teams like the Reds to piece together rosters that can compete. This will be the opposite of a dark age. It will bring back the glory of baseball.
I predicted 78-84 a few weeks ago, and I’m sticking with it.
I really have no idea at all. lol If their win totals are in the:
50s – I’ll not be surprised at all.
60s – About what I thought.
70s – I little better than I thought
80s – Wow. A good deal better than I thought.
90s – SHOCKED (Will buy David Bell dinner if he’ll let me)
How’s that for sticking my neck out and going out on a limb with my prediction. lol 🙂
mmmm, why not….
I’m fine with being (maybe) the only one to predict a winning record 🙂
Nick Krall has done a good job with what he’s had to work with. I’m glad to have made it to another Opening Day in my favorite big/small town of Cincinnati. The goal is to win. It will be what it will be.
John Ring: “Not sold with Reynolds at shortstop.”??
Am I missing something?
That confused me, it seemed forced in. He’s a fine defender and good injury depth, not the worst guy to have on your bench, but I dont think he’s making the team.
Same thought. I’ve seen exactly zero discussion on giving Reynolds substantial (if any) time at SS
I think he meant Newman.
That was my guess, but with Bell, I’m still feeling flinchy.
Did Siri mix up Reynolds and Barrero? Or Reynolds and Newman?
My number matches that of Ashley. My prediction was reinforced by an ESPN projection that says: ” A good season for the Reds would be one in which they don’t lose 90 games.” They might come close but falter at the end as this team has always done recently. My hope is that we see if the presumed everyday/platoon “starters” are tenable beyond this year. Should be an entertaining season, Krall’s moves have been positive. Whether David Bell can follow through remains to be seen. Not often mentioned but the rule changes seem to be working very well, 2 1/2 hours and more run “creation” is what this game needed.
Hope does spring eternal in March, but I’ll still predict 82 Ws. The big question in my mind is not talent, but durability. Will the Reds have a better team on the IL than on the field. And what was wrong last year? Assembling fragile players? Overreactive or incompetent medical staff? Leadership? The water in the clubhouse?
It seems like this has been mentioned that last spring’s trades as soon as the lockout ended messed with the team psyche and they really didn’t play as a team until a month or two into the season. Hence the horrible start. The players seem very optimistic this spring but the lack of a 5th starter might mean doom as in 90-100 losses doom. My prediction is 68-94 due to the likelihood of one of the Big 3 missing significant time on the IL. With overall good team health and a solid 5th starter, I could see 75 wins. The young players are going to have their ups and downs.
This team should be much more talented than last year’s team with the additions of a healthy Barrero, Benson, and a more experienced Big 3 pitching.
I actually don’t think the bullpen will be as bad as some are expecting.
Jake Fraley seems to have figured something out last year that looks to have carried into this year.
There are some big concerns about the #4 and #5 starters, but I think Cessa can hold his own. Overton, well… Hope for the best.
On paper, this is slightly worse than a .500 team, maybe about 79 wins. That said, David Bell is still the manager, and he’s good for about 4-8 losses each year in games that should have been won. With a better manager, this team could probably crack .500, but alas.
74-88 is my best guess.
“David Bell is still the manager, and he’s good for about 4-8 losses each year in games that should have been won. With a better manager, this team could probably crack .500, but alas.”
I’m glad someone is putting this in writing.
Less ‘managing’ wouldn’t have averted the debacle of 2022 but likely would have eased the pain considerably.
The season of unsupported assertions presented as facts.
Yes, I read it on the internet, therefore it must be true!
So would better players
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Well, the future is the Undiscovered Country. But….we will all be living there sooner than you think. 🙂
I think the Reds can win 74-78 games.
The roster on August 1, 2023 will be somewhat different than the one on April 1, 2023.
I think the Reds have five guys that can (maybe) crack 20 HR, and post around an 0.800 OPS.
Fraley, India, Stephenson, Myers and Steer.
Benson is a big unknown. He could be good, real good. Or could really struggle hitting. Friedl will play a lot all over the outfield, a solid guy, if not spectacular.
Barrero is another big variable; he could be real good or flop again like last year. Last year, Kyle Farmer hit 0.255 and hit 14 HR as the shortstop. If Barrero did that well, people would likely be ecstatic.
I think it will not be more than a month before the Starting Rotation gets changed again, so I am not terribly pessimistic about that.
The biggest variable is, of course, pitching. Will Lodolo, Ashcraft and Greene take all their turns this season, or will one (or more) of them get hurt and miss a lot of turns? Lotsa questions about how good the bull pen is. How many games will they blow open? How many will they hold and save?
I have no idea what you nice folks are talking about. Conner Overton is going to be our all star representative and get 20 wins and over 200 innings. Ok… seriously…my prediction…Reds figure out how to get a bit more pitching this year at some point. The Reds will be better on the bases. They will be better in the field. If Votto comes back healthy enough, the home run totals for the Reds won’t be completely embarrassing. Need another guy to step up in the bullpen and pitch better than anyone expects.
Yes, Overton will win 20 games. Also, Greene will be credited with a perfect game on opening day when 27 consecutive Pirates are ruled out for batting out of order.
I thought it was after 27 batters thrown out at first after strike three in the dirt?….
27 consecutive batter timer violations
My prediction, thr Reds are a much more interesting team to watch, especially after July. Wins don’t matter this year but probably around 72.
By July we will know which young players are seizing the moment and which can’t. EDLC, CES, Matt McLain, Connor Phillips and Andrew Abbott could all be up. Jonathan India could be traded for a nice Dodger corner outfield prospect and a high upside reliever.
Im praying for health of the team so we stay on track for 2024/2025 competitiveness.
I think its going to happen, India comes back strong and is traded, or is injured. I wouldn’t be mad though if you want this organization to suceed you need to trade at the HIGHEST value. Look, see if barrero works out, India can get replaced by McLain in a heart beat. If india can net us 2 good prospects I will be happy. Or More…
This team will have to trade, they have one more year of India before they probably need to think about trading him.
I look to 1983 for my guess. The Reds were 61-101 in 1982 then 74-88 in 1983 with only minor changes to the team.
So I’ll guess 72 or 73 W (about 10 more W) in 2023.
My prediction for this year is the most exciting season in the last 10 years. The Reds will at least be fun to watch. As long as the young players get the opportunity to play I will be satisfied for the first time in many years to be a Reds fan.
83-79. I can’t force myself to pick against them. I think this is the year they surprise us. I think this team will steal a ton of bases and play great defense and finally, finally, stop running from base to base and run aggressively taking the extra base. I see the big three winning 15 a piece and I think Cessa can get double figures. 5th starter is a question mark. Steer hits 20 homers and has a good year. India bounces back and Fraley has a career year. Stephenson is an all-star along with India and Lodolo. Freidl gets 15 homers and 25 steals. Barrero gets 18 homers and silences his Reds critics. Last but not least the bullpen surprises everybody and comes in at the end of the season in the top 10. The Reds fans fall in love with this team and start calling them the 1999 Reds and get into the playoffs on a play – in game against – The Mets.
The BP will blow a ton of games. Diaz will be trade at the deadline (big mistake) for a haul.
The Bally situation is hanging over there heads.
(Do not think they real money last year (GAAP can be confusing)
Maybe next year
I am fairly optimistic about this team. However, there are an awful lot of IF’s that will have to happen. First, 3/5 of the rotation could be great. John Ring who is this AshcrOft? I cannot find his minor league numbers….lol. When guys who will be in the pen get healthy, the bullpen could at least be servicable. I think the lineup showed during the spring they can score runs. We’ll see if that holds up over the 162. If India, Votto (when he returns) and Stephenson can stay healthy. IF Barrero has truly found his swing. IF Rake Fraley can rake, IF Steer can NOT be a train wreck at third….I can go on and on. I think this team could finish 74-78 wins IF a lot of things go the Reds way. I fear though 68 wins will be their ceiling
My prediction is that they will be more fun to watch.
This is probably the safest and hopefully most correct prediction I have seen here because much of 2022 was as boring as I can recall a Reds season ever being for me, 😉
I’m guessing anywhere between 68 to 72 wins this season. Losing so many guys last year to FA and trades did not help the mood in the clubhouse. No more 3-23 starts please!
I’m with the 70’s crowd … 75 +/- 2
Looking for a moderately strong start against the Pie-Rats and the Stupid Cubs.
85-77. Talented, youthful energy pervades and Phillips or Williamson blossoms and create a strong fourth starter. India and Stephenson stay healthy and are All Stars. Myers hits like Drury did last year. EDLC rakes at AAA and is called up in late May and electrifies an already enthusiastic team. I won’t mention the bullpen. Go Reds!!
I think these 2023 Reds likely are gonna blow many games because his bullpen inconsistencies and they have no offensive tools at the moment to face the elite starting pitching of other clubs (Scherzer, Fried, Alcantara, Burnes, Wheeler and so on), but all of this is theorical right now. The defensive is a little bit improved this year perhaps excepting the 3B. I hope to see the calling up of top prospects at the second half so it will be very interesting in how they will help the team.
The health of the three musketeers (Greene, Lodolo & Ashcraft and still looking for D’artagnan ) is so precious and hopefully they will stay this way. I agree with Ashley the Reds having about a 72-90 record this season but I´d like it to be better as Doug predict 76-86.
I have been anxiously awaiting Opening Day here in Central PA! Optimistically, I think they can win 75 games. Although, everything would have to go right to get there. I predict a fun/interesting season watching the young guys and will be satisfied with their progression and 70 wins. Let’s Play Ball!!!
72-90. They will be more competitive.
I predict there will be no trades at the deadline ( Myers et al) as Krall and Bell and ownership will say they are focused on building a winning culture and winning as many games as possible.
April is huge. A 15-14 start would go a long way. Gotta avoid the 11-18 start.
If things go sideways, injuries and/or underperformance from the pitching staff will be the reason.
83-79, 3rd place. Don’t let last year’s debacle color your view of this team of high floor players. With normal health (remember, we had DOUBLE the median games missed last year) it’s almost impossible to see them laying an egg. Other fearless predictions:
–We’ll send a minimum of 3 players to the ASG: Stephenson, Diaz, and one of our big 3.
–guys who will pop 20 HRs or more: Steer, Benson, India, Barrero.
–4+ WAR: Greene, Barrero, Lodolo, Stephenson.
–2.5+ WAR: Steer, Friedl, Fraley, Myers, Benson, Ashcraft.
Team MVP: Greene. This guy is a generational talent.
Gold glove finalist–Barrero.
Top 10 Cy Young voting: Greene.
Minor leaguer of the year: Edwin Arroyo.
The big three won like 19 games last year and there was a ton of injuries. If the big three could possibly double their victories …. with some help from the pen …. , I could this thing hitting 75-80 wins. But there are some missing pieces holding this team back. Power, 5th starter, and uncertain pen. We may not have anyone with 25 HRs and we play at GABP! Dreaming about the addition of a power hitting OF and a 5th starter who goes 10-12 with 175 innings. I don’t know about the second half being better. Might depend on the first half.
When you subtract last year’s horrendous start the winning % for the rest of the year would come out to 69 wins for the year. With that said now you are looking at three young pitcher that have a year under their belt. Plus Bell did not use Diaz in the closer role for half the year. Look out if they get off to a good start as winning is contagious and a confidence builder especially with younger players. Having our Catcher, 2B and hopefully Votto healthy I see no reason not to expect 75 to 80 win season.
90 Wins and competing for Div title. Top 3 will contend for best top 3 in baseball. Solid performers at every spot, and bullpen will be good.
Well, the season hasn’t even started yet, so this may be as good as it gets. Reds finished a flat, five hundred, 81 and 81. Joey Votto announces his retirement before the All-Star break as his shoulder just won’t heal properly.
If the Reds get off to a poor start, and the team looks flat, Bell gets the hook by All-Star break. This is Nick Krall’s team now to do as he wishes within the limits of a very tight budget.
Regardless of the team’s record this season, the future looks very exciting at the very least.
Excited for this season though. I enjoy watching young players develop…Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Barrero, Stephenson, India, Steer, Friedl, Fraley, Benson, Diaz…potential to see McLain, EDLC, CES, McGarry, Siani, Stoudt, Williamson…also interested to see how Senzel does with his potentially last chance…Votto is a big X-Factor. I think Cruz will have a great year covering the 7th or 8th inning, which has been a huge issue for years.
So sad to know Kevin Newman is not starting on opening day. He is better than Jose Barrero
I don’t see 70 wins without a lot of luck, some nice breakouts, and a couple of additions. The pitching staff overall is thin, some potential, but not a lot beyond the four mentioned above. A big breakout by Barrero would be a plus. Otherwise, a steady diet of Newman would ensue. Similarly, a big move by Steer, Benson, any or all of the 3Fs, and India, Stephenson, and Myers producing as they are capable would move the team up in wins significantly. But that’s a lot of black swans to be discovered and doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome.
79 – 83, The kids are alright
The 26 man wasn’t as exciting as I hoped, looks like it’s Vosler and Fairchild
Reds keep it simple and go with Fairchild as 26th guy.
Makes a lot of sense. Lefty in Rich hill tomorrow
Also Vosler and DFA Solak
Lineup is in. Bell getting every LH bat in the lineup, including Vosler at 1B
Man if I was a manager I’d love playing games with these other managers that stack their lineup. I’d most likely do what some have already done by changing my starter after maybe one or two pitches even. lol Being unpredictable is good strategy. Stacking a lineup can backfire real fast.
My prediction is the Reds don’t let Phil Castillini give a pre game interview to the media before the start of the first game
Actually lol’d at this. My family and I were actually discussing the odds of this the other day
+300 they don’t let him neat a microphone
+1200 they don’t let him near the stadium
+7500 they’ve secretly brought back Thom and he personally does the interview with Phil
Hahaha!!! That might be a safe bet although I don’t know how they could stop him if he really wanted to. He’d find a way.
You all are way too high. 65 wins and that may even be too high.
72-90. This Opening Day roster is underrated imo, they could push for 80 wins if healthy… but there’s no pitching depth at all so the Reds are also the best value bet to finish dead last in the NL. If anything goes wrong with our three young aces, look out below. This offense can’t carry a AAA rotation.
Offense ends up 12th best in the NL, pitching/defense 8th. The kids are all right and we’re all wildly optimistic heading into 2024. Bullpen will start strong but finish weak, worn down from pitching a gazillion innings in games not started by Hunter/Nick/Graham. Votto turns back the clock one last time.
74-88. Lodolo has a sub 3.50 ERA and FIP. Greene a 3.75 ERA and FIP. Votto has a decent year. Steer with about 2 WAR. Stehenson has a bounce back year and plays more than 120 games.
My prediction is right with DW, 73-89… The lineup doesn’t look too bad. The weak spots are the bullpen, 4-5 starters and David Bell.
I’m going with Jason and Doug … they win more than 75, but less than 80 games.
Redleg nation staff are think are wearing rose colored glasses.
I think the most wins this team has a chance at is 70 and that is if they are lucky. Realistically I am in the 62 to 65 range for wins. Biggest reason we have to play a lot more better teams than we normally do overall in the season.
I think the Reds are going to outperform the expections of the national “experts” and get to 78 wins. In years past they have had no depth They get an injury and there really was nothing on the shelf to replace that part. This year they have some depth…in the minors. And I expect if an extended injury happens they have some really good players in the minors they can bring up to fill that hole. That was not available to them last year when they basically had a revolving door of stiffs.
Looks like Tom forgot to give his prediction.