Nate and I got together again to discuss all the insanity surrounding your Cincinnati Reds. First up, we laugh uproariously at the ongoing clown show surrounding COO Phil Castellini, then we get a little optimistic. What’s the best-case scenario for the 2023 Reds? The answer might surprise you!

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27 Responses

  1. LDS

    Best case scenario? New owners who come in and fire nearly everyone in the organization, from Bell to Krall and all the surrounding execs.

    • Votto4life

      I hope to live to see that day. They can take their boot licking supporters with them.

      • LDS

        You and me both. I wish they transcribe these. I don’t have an hr to listen

    • 2020ball

      lol +1

      Wouldnt bother me a bit if this happened, time for a reset.

  2. JayTheRed

    Just want to say not a fan of religious ads before the show started for me.

  3. David

    I tend to sympathize A LITTLE with Nick Krall, as while he is not the most brilliant or best “GM” in baseball, he works for likely one of the worst owners/ownership group.

    Trying his best to make the most out of a pretty bad situation. To paraphrase Phil Castellini, where else is Nick Krall going to go?

    Where have you gone, Jim Bowden? Cincinnati turns its lonely eyes to you….
    Yeah, don’t want him back either.
    And where did Wayne Krivsky end up? I think he last worked for the Twins. And now I think he is out of baseball.

    • TR

      Bowden was a good GM for the offense, but didn’t do much for the Reds pitching.

  4. Oldtimer

    Reds stay reasonably healthy. Votto, India, and Senzel bounce back. Young SP develop into quality MLB starters. Maybe 75 W.

    1960 Reds were 67-87. 1961 Reds were 93-61.

    1971 Reds were 79-83. 1972 Reds were 95-59.

    The 1982 Reds were 61-101. The 1983 Reds (with a similar roster) were 74-88.

    • LDS

      The 72 Reds acquired Morgan & company after the lousy 71 season as well as Tom Hall in a later transaction. So, maybe not a great comp. With respect to the 82 Reds, they dumped McNamara part way through the season and Russ Nixon took over. 1983 was his first full season (and his last). Plus, Esasky and Redus were improvements over Householder. The 61 Reds replaced manager Gabe Paul with Hutchinson, dumped Martin and moved Bell to the bench. Not to mention that Pinson and Robinson were both older and had monster years. The current incarnation of the Reds haven’t made any comparable moves. It’s still the same manager and essentially the same roster. We’re counting on miracles happening and Votto bouncing back to his 2017 or at least 2021 form, and Senzel finally producing like he had been touted back in the prospect days. Frankly, @OT, that sounds like wishful thinking on our part.

      • Oldtimer

        You got a few things off the mark. Hutch became Reds manager in 1959 after Mayo Smith was fired. Smith won 1968 WS with Tigers. Gabe Paul was GM in 1959. He was never Reds manager.

        Billy Martin had OPS+ 74 in 1960. Don Blasingame had OPS+ 53 in 1961.

        Pinson and Robinson had great years previously before 1961. Robinson had OPS+ 169 in 1960 and 164 in 1961. Pinson had OPS+ 129 in 1959 and 131 in 1961.

        Bell (102 G, 262 AB) and Post (99 G, 306 AB) shared OF starting spot in 1961.

        Morgan, Billingham & Geronimo in 1972 were a far cry from those guys in 1975 or 1976. The 1972 Reds were surprisingly good.

        The 1982 and 1983 rosters were similar, not identical. Householder improved in 1983 compared to 1982. Bench played better in 1983 compared to 1982.

        The Reds team OPS+ in 1982 was 84. The Reds team OPS+ in 1983 was 84.

        Look at 2011 and 2012 for another example of major improvement with the same guys overall.

      • LDS

        Could be. I used baseball ref. I don’t remember it first hand.

      • Oldtimer

        I used BR also. But I remember it first hand, too.

        The 2023 Reds won’t be 20 or 25 games (more W) than 2022 team but they could be 10 games (more W) better.

        The 2022 Reds were snakebite with injuries. Some players had off years.

  5. Klugo

    People really need to just start booing Phil any and every time he starts to talk.

  6. Bdh

    Best case scenario could be similar to last years orioles team.

    Friedl – takes over in CF and continues his strong play from mid August through the end of last season (.888 OPS (6 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR) k% < 20%)

    Fraley – has a full season of the 118 OPS+ ball he played last year and is more active on the bases. Could easily be better than a 20/10 guy

    Myers – benefits from a more hitter friendly park and plays like his did in the 2nd half of the 2022 season. Still dealt at the deadline similar to how the Orioles traded Mancini even though they were in the hunt.

    Steer – takes the next step in his development. Not quite Drury from last season but close.

    Barrero/Newman – If Barrero figures it out then perfect but if not Newman can still be a .260 – .270 hitter at the bottom of the lineup while playing good defense

    India – healthy and rebounds to a season like his RoY campaign.

    Votto – A healthy Votto maintains the 60 XBH pace he was on last year before the shoulder pain became too much.

    Casali/Maile – the 2nd biggest reason for optimism without thinking best case scenario. This duo is much much better than any catcher the reds had after Stephenson went down last year.

    Stephenson – his bat will be in close to 100 more games this season. He’s the best hitter on the team so the importance of this cannot be understated

    Bench/rookies – Senzel stays healthy and regains some pop. 1-2 of the rookies we’ll see (De La Cruz, McClain, CES, McGary, Siani, Hopkins) make impressive debuts locking themselves into future reds teams

    Rotation – Lodolo + Greene both prove to be top of the rotation starters. Ashcraft doesn’t tire out at the end of the season and at least 1 rookie claims a spot in the rotation for the next half decade

    Bullpen – the relievers returning from injury all come back solid giving the reds 5-6 solid arms to turn to from the 7th inning on (Diaz, Antone, Sims, Santillan, Farmer, Sanmartin)

    Coaching – Bell is not renewed for the 2024 season and the young exciting reds teams that we will watch in the mid-late 2020s will have a new skipper

    • LDS

      Ok, @BDH, you’re more optimistic than @OT. That’s a true black swan prediction.

      • Bdh

        Supposed to be “best case” correct?

        Why would anyone look for negatives on their best case scenarios?

    • DataDumpster

      The Bull did make some good low cost moves to fill in the most obvious holes and the @Bdh analysis shows that there is very good “potential” on this team. However, the best case scenario would probably be about half of these outcomes actually occurring. Also strongly believe in the baseball 60,42,60 theory and actual 2-3 sigma outcomes not repeating 99% of the time so that leads me to a 67 to 75 win season for the team. Lots of individual stories to follow for 2023 may bring some interest but putting my hopes in your “coaching” best case happening.

      • LDS

        @DD, you got me there, 60,42,60 theory?

      • DataDumpster

        In a very long season like baseball, 98% of the outcomes for all teams will include at least 60 wins and 60 losses so that only about 42 games separate the best to the worst. In such cases, manager decisions, clutch hitting, or any other exceptional plays will have an outsized impact on the final record. Thusly, the best 5 or 10 players are paid an obscene amount of money relative to the very good players and so on.

      • LDS

        Interesting theory. I assume there’s research to support this? Regardless, if so, it shows how poorly the Reds actually performed last year.

      • Jim Walker

        The 60/42/60 theory essentially bears out Sparky Anderson’s theory of 50 years ago. He always said a team will win a third of its games and lose a third of its games regardless of what a manager does (or doesn’t do) and the manager’s job is to put the team in the best position to win as many games as possible of the remaining third. David Bell and many other current managers should take note that Sparky’s corollary was the best thing for the manager to do was often to stay out of the way once the game started

      • Still a Red

        JW…kinda flies in the face of the modern stat-heavy decision-making many on this site clamored for.

      • LDS

        Analytics and a lousy manager – what a combo.

    • TR

      May the last paragraph prediction come true.

      • TR

        Referring to the long comment from Bdh.