The Cincinnati Reds have landed five players on the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects list that was released on Friday. The list was the second top 100(+1) list released in the last two days – with Baseball America releasing their list on Thursday.

The Baseball Prospectus list sees the first Reds prospect show up at #5 overall with Elly De La Cruz. This is the highest rankings for the shortstop so far this offseason. After he burst onto the prospect world in 2021, De La Cruz took it to another level in 2022 when he split his season between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga and hit .304/.359/.586 with 31 doubles, 9 triples, and 28 home runs. He also added 47 stolen bases. His season was good enough for him to win the Triple Crown among the players in the farm system – marking only the third time that’s happened dating back to 1960 (the first year in which there are full records that I have access to), and the other two guys who did so were 29 and 32-years-old – De La Cruz did it while he was 20.

Noelvi Marte showed up on the list next, coming in as baseball’s 29th best prospect. A trade deadline acquisition from the Mariners, Marte hit .279/.371/458 for High-A Everett (Mariners) and High-A Dayton (Cincinnati) with 23 doubles, 19 home runs, and he stole 23 bases. He headed to the Arizona Fall League and struggled to find hits, going 15-71 (.211), but walked nearly as often as he struck out (12 walks, 14 strikeouts) as he got experience at third base after spending his entire career at shortstop up to that point.

Cam Collier, the Reds 1st round pick (18th overall) makes three Cincinnati prospects in the top 50 as he shows up at #49 on the list. Collier graduated high school early and headed off to Chipola Junior College when he should have been a junior in high school. He hit .333/.419/.537 there and was then selected by the Reds in the draft this past summer. He only played in a handful of games following the draft, but hit .370/.514/.630 in 35 plate appearances out in Arizona at the complex with the team’s rookie level affiliate.

Edwin Arroyo, another shortstop who came over at the trade deadline from the Mariners, checks in at #61 on the list. He split time between the Mariners Single-A affiliate Modesto and the Reds Single-A affiliate Daytona during the 2022 season. A good defender up the middle, Arroyo broke out at the plate as an 18-year-old last summer and hit .293/.366/.480 to go along with 25 doubles, 10 triples, and 14 home runs. He also stole 27 bases in 33 attempts.

The last Reds player to make the list is yet another prospect that was acquired in 2022. Connor Phillips made the list at #96. The right-handed pitcher came over in spring training from Seattle in the trade that included Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. In the first half he was dominant with High-A Dayton, posting a 2.95 ERA with 32 walks and 90 strikeouts in 64.0 innings. A promotion to Double-A Chattanooga saw the 21-year-old battle consistency with throwing strikes as he posted a 4.93 ERA with 34 walks and 60 strikeouts in 45.2 innings.

Matt Reynolds accepts outright to Triple-A

On Thursday the Cincinnati Reds outrighted Matt Reynolds to Triple-A Louisville. The infielder had cleared waivers, but he had the choice between accepting his assignment or becoming a free agent. He’s decided to remain with the organization.

23 Responses

  1. Oldtimer

    Reynolds is good, capable MLB caliber INF depth at AAA. Not a star but decent fill-in for injury to a starter.

  2. Fanman

    Exciting prospects that hopefully will be producing at the big league level sooner than later.

  3. LDS

    Obviously, there’s a good deal of subjectivity in these types of lists. Do any of these list creators have a consistently better record of handicapping? In terms of list positions, are there statistics on how frequently a prospect in the top 10 becomes a star vs the 50th or 90th position?

    • Doug Gray

      The problem with almost all of “the lists” is that they are made by different people every few years because the people in charge tend to leave for other jobs. That’s what makes it so tough to compare lists for a long period of time and say “these guys are better” – the people doing the lists for the same publication aren’t the same ones who were doing it 2-3-4-5 years ago. And generally speaking, you probably need a full decade of time to pass from the publication date to have a good feel on the list.

      Take Cam Collier, for example. In six years he’s going to be 23-years-old. How do you realistically look at a list in 6 years and know how valuable he truly is (unless he’s Juan Soto) and compare him to say the guy on the list who in 6 years is going to be 30 and has spent much of those 6 years in the big leagues?

      • LDS

        Guess we need a good AI program. Thanks for the info.

      • RedBB

        What about Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law? I think both have been putting up lists for many years now.

      • Doug Gray

        McDaniel has, but at different places, and at times the list wasn’t just his, but he was sharing the responsibility with others. And then there were also the years in which he didn’t put out a list at all because he was working for Atlanta.

  4. Old-school

    A list the other day had Marte #5 for the Reds. Here he is #29 overall in MLB.
    Jeter Downs and Josiah gray rocketed up these prospect lists simply by changing to a dodger blue uniform. Neither one has moved the needle at the MLB level. I was a huge Senzel and Barrero believer when they were on these lists. Hopefully Barrero bounces back.

    Give Krall credit. Hes acquiring talent. Part of the equation is developing the talent by the organization once the scouting part does their job.

    • David

      I think a lot of these ratings are “pedigree”; ie, where they were drafted, and into what organization, and what kind of “propaganda” each baseball organization can generate to hype their minor leaguers. Because it reflects back on the team’s GM and his staff; more high ranked players and …SEE? they are doing a great job! Sparky Anderson always said the Dodgers sold baloney by the pound, as he lived in Thousand Oaks, California in the off season.

      However, I do think that EDLC is the real deal, and will soon be on the ML team, and will prove himself. Just watching videos of him, and you get why he is just that good.

      Noelvi Marte…well, I guess we shall see. His showing in the Arizona League last fall was no great shakes, and he is, I think, 2 years older than EDLC.

      Funny, they left off Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who I think will be a pretty good ML player. But his fielding so far has been ….shaky.

      Cam Collier is so young, but he is a real specimen, and also pretty driven to succeed. I would not bet against him. I personally think he will rocket up through the Reds farm system and may debut in Cincy when he is 20 or 21. But honestly, I think it is too soon to predict anything about him.

      • 2020ball

        I’m personally very high on Marte, His AZ stats dont matter to me that late in the year and I’m more happy he went to put more work in even though he was worn down from the season. Fringy SS with a potential power bat with patience? Sounds great to me.

        EDLC may strike out a lot when he first breaks in, and if he fixes that issue or avoids it then look out.

        Very high ratings for Collier for as young and inexperienced he is. Still shocked he fell that far, the Reds are very lucky to have him.

      • MBS

        Yes, but the organization the prospect comes up in does have a lot to do with ML success. Some organizations are better at development than others. I think weighing that into rankings makes all the sense in the world.

      • Old-school

        Dodgers sold baloney by the pound?

        God Bless Sparky!!! RIP

      • Redsvol

        your point about CES is a good one. There are concerns about Francisco Alvarez’s defense……didn’t stop him from being ranked as #1 prospect in all of baseball by many. I think Reds got a good one in CES. Anyone who hits 32 home runs in 500 at bats, while maintaining average and OBP, at the higher levels of minor leagues is going to be good. Hopefully he gets some at bats toward the end of 2023 and shows he can take over for Votto.

      • Old Big Ed

        Noelvi Marte is not two years older than Elly De La Cruz. He is 87 days older. Both will be in their “age 21” season this year.

    • RedBB

      There is no question that there is team bias to these lists. As you mentioned a Dodger prospect with the exact same makeup up and stats will always be ranked above the same prospect as a Red. Same thing happens in football recruiting where Alabama or Ohio State commitments automatically get a bump. It’s human nature.

      • Jim Walker

        Except when all is said and done, Bama, Georgia, the Buckeyes, and (usually) Clemson end up at the head of the class at season’s end while the Reds wheels just keep churning mud.

    • Jim Walker

      Give Krall credit…..

      It is easy to be a seller when a person has goods to sell that Krall did, i.e. Gray, Suarez, Winker, Mahle, Castillo, Drury, and even Naquin.

      So many of the guys he got in return are so far down the development line, it will likely (at least) 3-4 years before a real assessment of how he did can be made. By then how many of the likes of Stephenson, India, Greene, Lodolo et al will even be with the Reds? My preference would have been perhaps fewer guys closer to MLB that could have blended with the emerging core in a couple of

  5. 2020ball

    Glad Reynolds is sticking around, he’s excellent depth.

  6. Alex Reds

    I believe this is the highest ranked group of top 100 prospects that the Reds have ever had

    • Doug Gray

      That 2007 group was better rated. Depending on where you looked, the Reds had the #1 prospect in baseball, and three other guys inside the top 50 (Bruce was #1, then Cueto, Bailey, and Votto were in the top 50). Each of those guys were all ranked in the Top 25 at the time by at least one reputable publication.

      • David

        Rating players and ranking them is something of a total guessing game.

        Remember that Geovany Soto was the Rookie of the Year in 2008 in the NL, and Joey Votto was second?
        And looking at his career, that 2008 year was probably about the best year Geovany Soto had. Joey got better.
        Out of this Top 100 ranking, who knows who will actually be a memorable player? It is somewhat hard to fathom how these players will turn out, as one of the biggest mitigating factors is just what happens inside the player’s head, how he learns and matures. Some players are smart and progress, others look great initially but do NOT progress.
        Second…is luck. Luck at not getting injured and having your career ruined (see Nick Senzel for bad luck).

  7. Stock

    I love this ranking. Makes a lot of sense to me and not just because these 5 prospects are my top 5 prospects and in the same order as my top 5.

    EDLC is one of the 5-10 best prospects in baseball. He needs to work on his K% and BB% but other than that he should be ready come April 2024. I love that he is a hard worker and team leader. A year from now he should be the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball.

    Marte was tired in AZ. He is young and will be in AA this summer. He needs to come to camp this year ready to play. There is no doubting his talent.

    I actually think Collier will be better than Marte but have a hard time ranking someone who has only played in AZ ahead of Marte. Allen was awesome in AZ but very normal in full season ball. If he shines in Daytona and Dayton this summer he could be a top 10 prospect next winter. Along with Marte and EDLC the Reds could have 3 players in the top 25.

    Arroyo is 4th on my list also. I don’t think he is as good as he was in the California league but not as bad as he was in Daytona. He will be 19 and in Dayton this year. He too could be a top 25 prospect in baseball next winter though it is probably reasonable to hope for a top 50 ranking.

    I have Phillips as my 5th prospect but thought he and Chase Petty would be in the 100-150 range. I think both Phillips and Petty will be top 100 prospects in 12 months.

    Barring injury or promotion I see at least 6 Reds in next year’s top 100. It also would not surprise me if one or more of Abbott, McLain, Boyle, Hendrick or CES make it.

    I think it is possible though it would surprise me if one of Jorge, Stewart, Allen or Cabrera make it.