Gambling on sports is now legal in the state of Ohio. Love it, hate it, indifferent about it – people can now do it and the Cincinnati Reds ownership is taking full advantage of it, too, closing down The Machine Room late in the season in 2022 to freshen it up and add the BetMGM Sportsbook at Great American Ball Park to the facility – which still serves food and beverages.

While lines and the like are generally set at something close to what the experts believe will happen, they aren’t exactly that. Instead they are set at what the book believes will lead to the right amount of money on both sides of the bet. It’s why you will see lines move if there’s too much action happening on one side – it’s not necessarily that the experts who set the line believe the line is incorrect, but that they need to get some money on the other side to hedge the wager in case it goes in the other direction.

With all of that said, Caesar’s released their over/under for the 2023 Major League Baseball season win totals for all 30 teams. As you can imagine, the total for the Cincinnati Reds is quite low. The sportsbook has the over/under set at 64.5 wins. That’s only higher than the Pittsburgh Pirates (62.5), the Washington Nationals (61.5), and the Oakland Athletics (60.5).

Within the National League Central division the Reds are well behind the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals over/under is set at 89.5 wins and is at the top spot in the division. Milwaukee is next in line and has their over/under at 84.5 wins. The Chicago Cubs are between the good teams in the division and the really bad teams in the division and have their over/under set at 78 wins.

The New York Yankees, New York Mets, Houston Astros, and Los Angeles Dodgers all have their over/under set at 95 wins or higher, with the Dodgers at the top with 98.5.

83 Responses

  1. AMDG

    If the objective of a betting line is to get an equal amount of $$$ on each side, then 64.5 wins seems reasonable.

    I think most Reds fans will take the over, assuming the injuries were a fluke which caused the team to roll our 17 starting pitchers and dozens of different lineups.

    But non-Reds fans will likely see a team who only won 62 games last year, and have lost Castillo, Mahle, Drury & Solano from that roster.

  2. Gonzo Reds

    Under. Like taking candy from a baby. Lost 100 games last year and we’re going to be a lot worse this year than that team was.

    Sell the team Bob!

    • Colorado Red

      Be careful what you ask for, else you might be saying Vegas Reds.
      How about spend money Bob?
      While I do not know the facts, I am sure the Reds have money to spend, but what it in there pockets.

      • BK

        The Red’s sweetheart deal with GABP will keep them in Cincinnati through 2037.

      • JayTheRed

        BK is correct the Reds are not going anywhere until at least 2037. That’s over 14 years my friends.

        Look how much baseball has changed in the last 15 years alone. I mean being a fan you can pretty much enjoy your team from anywhere now.

      • Dean Rock

        How about ” Spend Money Bob”???
        Like on Moose? Akiyama?
        Hiring banker Dick Williams due to his family’s ownership interest set this franchise back 5-plus years.
        Krall was dealt a bad hand.
        I’ve given up on this franchise as long as Castellinis are owners.

        Moderators note: Don’t avoid the swear filter. Find a different word to use.

    • Steve

      A lot worse than last year? I just do not see that…what area of the team got substantially worse??? We had very poor injury luck last year which could certainly happen again…but even if that occurs I just don’t see how this year’s team is “a lot worse”

      • Frankie Tomatoes

        How this team could be worse – they don’t have Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, Brandon Drury, and Tyler Naquin for four months of the year. Tommy Pham was probably as good or better than any of the current outfielders projected to play on the team except the platooning version of Jake Fraley.

      • Tar Heel Red

        I agree with Gonzo that the ’23 Reds will be worse than last year. The question was asked “what area of the team got alot worse?” The answer is the starting rotation. At least last year they had two veteran starters in Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle for half the season to rely on. This year’s team has three second-year starters and little else. Even adding Cessa, Dunn and Overton to the mix only accounts for six starters. The average major league team used 11+ starters last year…the Reds used 16! Where do the other starts come from, and what happens when any one of the starters gets hurt?

      • earmbrister

        Frankie, the Reds didn’t have Castillo for four months last year. He was hurt to start the year and thus his starts only spanned from 05/07 thru 7/27 when he was traded. He provided just 85 IP. Likewise, Mahle only gave the Reds 104 IP of 4.40 ERA pitching between his injuries and his trade.

        Naquin also sat on the IL for a good part of last year, as he only had 204 PAs (vs 385 for Drury). Comparing the two year’s rosters:

        2022 Outfield: Pham, Senzel, Naquin, Fraley, Friedl and Aquino.

        2023 Outfield: Myers, Senzel, Fairchild, Fraley, Friedl and others.

        Myers with a career OPS+ of 111 is a big upgrade over Pham who had an OPS+ of 88 last year. And GABP is a much friendlier place to hit. Friedl is a swap of 101 OPSs with Naquin. Fraley is a huge upgrade on OPS+ over Aquino (118 vs 63). We will miss AA’s D.

        2022 Infield: Votto, India, Farmer, Drury and others (read a largely hurt Stephenson and SIX other catchers).

        2023 Infield: Votto, India, Barrero, Steel and others (Newman, Stephenson, Casali, and Maile for starters).

        It can be argued that Newman is as good as Farmer, with Barrero representing a possible upgrade. Newman seems to hit well in GABP, but that might be selective memory on my part (although GABP is certainly a better hitter’s ballpark than PNC). We got 385 PAs of Drury before he was traded. I’d say that a full year of Stephenson, who had an OPS+ of 130 last year, is better than 2/3 of a year of Drury (who had a 128 OPS+ before cooling off in San Diego). And the offense from the second and third string catchers should be much better than that of the SORRY SIX who provided OPS+’s of 81 (Kolovosky, the PB guy) as well as a 38, a 24, a 7, an 11, and a 17 OPS+. Upgrade.

        Overall offense: Solid upgrade.

        2022 SP: Mahle, Castillo, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and others.

        2023 SP: Dunn, Cessa, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and others.

        Much like the discussion of the offense, you have to consider the time spent in a Reds uniform, as you’re only looking to replace 189 IP from Mahle and Castillo.

        How are you replacing those innings? Lodolo only gave the Reds 3.5 months last year. Will he be healthier in 2023? Who knows, but 103 IP seems like a floor, hardly a ceiling. And Lodolo visably grew as a pitcher in his short time in the bigs. Hunter Greene had a 6.01 ERA on 7/4 and 8 starts later (he lost most of August to injury) his ERA stood at 4.44. It seems like he was figuring out how to pitch, not throw. Greene gave us 125 IP. It hardly seems a stretch to expect better pitching, and MANY more innings, from Lodolo, Greene, and Ashcraft (105 IP in ’22). Dunn should be much healthier in 2023 – can he contribute going forward?

        Now we do need to replace Mike Minor’s 98 IP of 6.06 ERA ball. That’s more innings than Castillo’s 85 and just less than Mahle’s 104, BTW. Considering the modest innings pitched by Castillo and Mahle, as well as the (welcomed?) departure of Mike Minor, I’d say that

        the starting pitching in 2022 will be no worse, but probably better in 2023.

        The bullpen returns a young Diaz, and promising pitchers in Farmer, Sanmartin, and Gibaut. Antone and Sims are two legit relievers who should be healthier in 2023 than in 2022. Huh, six decent relievers – looks like the 2023 BP should be much better than 2022.

        Now, I haven’t said a word about any prospect who might break through. Diaz broke through in 2022. Would it be unrealistic to likewise assume ONE prospect breaks through in 2023?

        I’ll concede that the schedule MAY be more difficult.

        In short, we shouldn’t be comparing the 2022 lineup (which didn’t include Castillo to start the season, and certainly didn’t include Castillo, Mahle, Pham, Drury, Naquin to end it) to the full season 2023 lineup. And we will all miss the contributions of Mike Minor, 3M, Hunter Strickland, Chase Anderson, TJ Zeuch, et al.

        In addition, I don’t understand the 55 win predictions, but today’s social media is all about the shock value, despite what the evidence might show us.

        I’m happy to take the over when it’s at 64.5 wins. Put me down for 75 wins, and I’ll be happy watching youngsters, not retreads, getting their innings for our Reds.

      • Doug Gray

        Edited: To add that this was in response to the Castillo/Mahle replacement portion of earmbristers reply
        190 innings of 3.71 ERA baseball is pretty good and that’s what the Reds are going to be replacing with who? We honestly don’t know and that’s a problem, isn’t it? Let’s just chalk it up to a 5.00 ERA given that no one from the options available now are currently good enough to have a spot locked in. That’s 27 extra earned runs. What is that worth? 5 losses?

      • earmbrister

        Doug, I’d respond by saying that you’re not replacing 190 innings of 3.71 ERA baseball. You’ve already replaced 104 IP of Mahle’s 4.40 ERA ball with full seasons from Greene and Lodolo, and probably at a lower ERA. That leaves the 85 IP by Castillo at a sterling 2.86 ERA. LC had a 4-4 record last year, despite that ERA. Are the Reds going to lose every game, say 0-8, in replacing him? Probably not. Can they expect better results from Mike Minor’s replacement? Probably. If we use your 5.00 ERA replacement value that you cited, the 98 IP that MM provided at a 6.06 ERA with a 4-12 record, should easily be exceeded by MM’s replacement, and make up for the 5 losses that you attribute to Castillo’s replacement.

        And Ashcraft (105 IP last year) will most likely soak up most of the innings lost with Castillo.

        The point is that the Reds have 3 legit starters that should be available throughout the year, unlike in 2022 and unlike in way too many years in the past (see the early 2000s). Those early 2000 rotations were truly awful.

        This is an enjoyable debate, and one that will be moot in 9 months. Looking forward to how it all unfolds.

      • Doug Gray

        I don’t know that we should count on better results from Mike Minor’s replacement. His replacement won’t be the 5.00 ERA guy(s) – at least as it stands now – it’ll be the guys worse than those guys.

        The Reds have 3 legit starters, but they also had 5 at various points last season, too, and they lost 100 games.

      • earmbrister

        Doug, you don’t know that we should count on better results from Mike Minor’s replacement? There was exactly ONE pitcher in all of baseball (Patrick Corbin) last year that had a higher ERA , and more innings pitched, than Mike Minor with his 98 IP. Heck, there was no one else with a worse ERA than Minor that pitched even 75 innings. There were only two additional pitchers with worse ERAs that pitched more than 60 innings.

        The Reds can certainly find a better pitcher than Mike Minor. I’ll roll the dice on his replacement.

        As for “legit starters”, the Reds had ONE pitcher that had 24 games started last year: Hunter Greene (and he missed 1.5 months in the second half of the season before coming back and pitching like the TOR prospect that he is). The rest of the starting staff had 19 games or fewer. I’ll go out on a limb without sweating it and say that at least three of the 2023 starters will easily exceed 19 games. Health will matter, but the Reds are done trading away starting pitching for prospects. They have a strong young core and will only be adding to it.

        The arrow is pointed up, though recent results will color our judgement in the meantime.

      • Gary

        I agree. Team will be improved and will win several more than last year.

      • Tom Diesman

        The Reds rotation is not as bleak as everyone wants to make it out to be. Steamer projects this years rotation to be about 30 ER or 3 Wins better.

        2022 Reds GS ERA
        as Starter 162 4.97

        Steamer Proj 2023 GS ERA
        Nick Lodolo 29 3.65
        Hunter Greene 29 3.96
        Graham Ashcraft 26 4.47
        Justin Dunn 19 6.13
        Luis Cessa 17 5.04
        Connor Overton 11 4.94
        Levi Stoudt 10 5.47
        Brandon Williamson 8 5.35
        Connor Phillips 5 5.35
        Carson Spiers 5 5.77
        Andrew Abbott 3 4.53
        Reds Starters 162 4.65

        IP ER
        2022 Reds 810 447
        2023 Proj Reds 810 418

      • Dean Rock

        Ummmm … We won’t have Castillo or Mahle for half a season. That’s significant.

      • earmbrister

        Dean, we didn’t have Castillo for half of a season last year. His first start was 5/7th and his last 7/27th. He gave us a mere 85 innings (albeit a stellar 85 IP). Mahle only gave us 104 IP of 4.40 ERA ball, due to his trade and his injuries. Somehow we traded him for a good return. He only pitched another 16 innings before he was shut down.

        What we will have is a full season of Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft. Yes, injuries come into play, but of course they come into play, and came into play, with Castillo and Mahle as well.

        Tom, is there any news on Justin Dunn? He put up some good numbers before his shoulder woes brought him down. A 6.13 ERA projection seems extreme, considering Minor’s 6.06; is Dunn not going to be able to get past his shoulder problems/control problems? Can’t seem to find any news on him.

      • Tom Diesman

        I’ve not heard any updates on Dunn’s injury status. Hopefully he will overcome his shoulder woes and be good to go for this season. It will be something to keep and eye out for once Spring Training begins.

    • Linkster

      Agreed! But, he would only sell to one of the dozen+ minority owners of the Reds, who are all Cincy businessmen who are as tight as Bob is.

  3. Colorado Red

    I think Under.
    It is close, Would think the win total is from 60 – 65, so I am slightly under.
    Hope we see a lot from the young guys, and can hope for better things starting in 2024.

    • Tar Heel Red

      I agree with under, but unlike others I don’t see it being anywhere close to 64 wins. In fact I would say with how the rotation stands right now (understand this could/should change) the win total in ’23 will be far less. My guess is a record of 55-107. Even if Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft all start 30 games (which none have ever done) that is 90 games. That leaves 72 starts unaccounted for. From whom do these starts come from?

      • earmbrister

        Greene had 24 starts last year, but only 1 in August (8/1) and then was hurt until mid September. Ashcraft, Mahle, and Lodolo only had 19 each. Castillo only had 14, which gives you 95. Where did we get those starts from last year?

        Mike Minor had 19 starts: it shouldn’t be that hard to replace his “production”. Cessa had 10 starts. Can we expect more if he begins the season as a starter? Probably. Dunn spent the first 2/3 of the season on the IL. Can Dunn give us more than 7 starts in 2023 and provide better production than Mike Minor? Probably. Overton got hurt after providing 6 surprisingly good starts. Will he be healthier? Probably.

        Injuries will happen. But the starting 6 today are definitely better than the starters last August and September. Castillo is the one big loss, but it is a loss of only 14 starts.

        With the pitching that the Reds DO HAVE, there is no way they only win 55 games IMHO. If you want to talk about a lack of pitching, go back and look at the rosters for the early 2000s. We had Aaron Harang and not much else.

      • David

        @earmbrister
        I like your reasoning, optimism and view. I think you could be right about a lot of this, but most people that comment on this here blog have been downright insulted and feel abused at the attitude and results from the Management & Ownership of the Reds (Castellini’s, etc). They are “mad” at the Reds. And they are looking at reasons to trash what is happening and will happen in the 2023 season.
        Having said all that, the season could go into the dumper if 2 of the 3 of Ashcraft, Lodolo and Greene get hurt and don’t pitch much. Pitching is the cause of winning in baseball. Without pitching, you lose. Which explains a lot of the losing lately. Largely, regardless of how weak people might think the line-up is (potentially), if the pitching is good, wins will come. If the Reds actually had done something significant (and only time will tell) about their bullpen, that would add a lot of confidence in a better 2023 season.

      • earmbrister

        Hey David, thank you. It’s just my opinion and as they say, we all have one.

        I’m not here to defend the ownership of the Reds. They are downright clueless when it comes to interacting with Reds fans.

        However, I’m also not hung up with recent results. Were we all satisfied as fans when the Reds made the 2020 playoffs, only to go scoreless in two games vs the Braves? I wasn’t. Did we feel like we were just a couple of players away from seriously contending?

        I loved watching Luis Castillo pitch for the Reds. Yet even with his great pitching, he was 4-4 for the Reds in 2022. Castillo, by himself, or even with Gray, Mahle, Castellanos, and Winker, wasn’t going to lead us to the promised land: a World Series title. Rather than pretend that the last rebuild had any chance of success, I preferred some near term pain for the promise of long term gain. For the most part, Krall has done a very good job of filling the prospect bin to the rim. Now it’s a matter of showing just a little more patience to see the plan through to its conclusion.

        Seldom have the Reds had such a young and promising pitching rotation. THREE rookie starting pitchers that can be considered amongst the top 100 pitchers in all of baseball. That’s been a real rarity for this franchise. When did we ever have a raft of top SS prospects, not just one or two, working their way through the minors at the same time? The starting pitching is largely in place (with more on the way), and the position players are coming on fast.

        As I have trumpeted all off season, the time to spend money in free agency is not now: it’s in the next two offseasons. The holes in the roster will change and those that don’t will become more apparent and more urgent down the road. Right now, let the youngsters play. There are nearly a dozen prospects that I am excited to see in the next couple of years. Yes, they won’t all pan out, but it’s a deep well that the team is drawing upon.

        IMO, the last money spent on building a club should be spent on the bullpen. The results from individual relievers are generally too inconsistent to rely on/invest in. And the pitching prospects that don’t pan out as starters may well prove to be effective relievers down the road.

        Yeah, I’m optimistic, maybe overly so. But it sure beats being miserable (and I’ve been fan for over 50 years). I’m not going to let the recent past ruin my view and my enjoyment of the future.

        Go Reds!!!

  4. Redsvol

    Over, but not by much. Just so many injuries last year and we ran out of starting pitchers and bullpen was atrocious until July.

    The youth will make some mistakes but they will also win some games because they play hard and fast.

  5. CFD3000

    Over. But I’m not happy about the growing prevalence of sports betting. There’s no stopping this steamroller though, so I just hope it’s driving interest in the actual games. I’ve said for a long time that sports is by far the best reality show on TV. I’ve got the 2023 Reds at 73-89. But predictions are hard, especially about the future.

    • 2020ball

      I’ve said that for a long time too, the biggest and most succesful reality TV shows in history.

  6. SultanofSwaff

    Gimme the over. Again, the Reds had DOUBLE the games lost to injury as the median and they won 62. Virtually impossible to be that snake bit again.

    • Jim Walker

      unfortunately, I think just like in the “real” financial markets a couple of decades ago, the money for the operators looks to be in the derivatives.

  7. Jimbo44CN

    And Pete is not in the Hall of Fame. Wow, we have come a long way.

    • Frankie Tomatoes

      Pete shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame.

      Employees of teams still can’t bet on games.

      • tim

        he should be in the hall of fame, but banned from the game itself. what harm does his presence in the hall cause?

      • Frankie Tomatoes

        I’d argue that the harm would be that it tells people that the rules don’t actually apply.

        Pete’s all over the Hall of Fame. He just doesn’t have a plaque.

        But also the guy is a scumbag.

      • David

        Vote him in after he dies.

        Pete would figure and angle on getting into the Hall of Fame. Probably make his autograph stuff more valuable.
        I watched Pete play his entire career, and he was a great player.

        But he is really a lousy person. He’s a liar, and hurt a lot of people that thought they were his friends and were loyal to Pete; Tommy Helms and Joe Nuxhall, to name two. Johnny Bench was possibly the earliest person to realize that Pete was a jerk, in partnership in the ill-fated Bench-Rose (Rose-Bench?) Lincoln Mercury car dealership. He tried to screw Johnny over, and Johnny knew it. He never trusted Pete after that. Bench never defends Rose, either. Pete wasn’t always like this, but his huge ego and hunger for money and attention did this to him.

      • earmbrister

        Frankie and David: totally agree that Rose should not be in the HOF, at least until after his death. The betting rule was posted in every dugout.

        Unfortunately, sports betting has exploded and the team owners have gobbled up as much of that money as possible. If I have to see one more commercial imploring me to “win so and so’s money” (Terry Bradshaw etc. etc.) and will barf.

      • 2020ball

        No to Rose in the hall, 100%. Anyone who doesnt think his betting affected how he managed is insane. Plus he had plenty of chances to get into better graces and he blew them all.

  8. MBS

    I like the over, it’s really rare to lose so many. The assumed opening day roster is better that 64.5 W’s, and this team is also going to be adding high level prospect throughout the year.

  9. LDS

    Without significant roster improvements, e.g., more pitching and outfield improvements, the under looks tempting. Over depends on too many lucky breaks, like a productive Votto, last year’s DL pitchers matching their earlier production, far fewer injuries, etc. And of course, there’s still the Bell factor. So right now, the under looks good. Hopefully, it won’t by opening day. As for selling the team, moving to Vegas? I don’t see either happening. And even if the Castellinis sell, the new owners would be wise to capitalize on dormant Reds market in the area. There’s two million plus fans that would be thrilled to show up for games if there was anything going on besides bobble heads.

  10. Mark Moore

    I’m really thinking I take the over, but not by much. I think we avoid a 100-loss season for many of the reasons stated in the other comments (like the insane amount of injuries we saw). But I seriously doubt we win 70 or more.

    Funny they are pessimistic on the Stupid Cubs and still think the Pie-Rats are below us. Then again, that’s why we play the games as opposed to just run them through the statistical models like we did in 2020, right?

    • David

      I think the Cubs will be slightly better, but they did lose Contreras (to the Cardinals!!) and still have a lot of holes to fill.
      The Pirates….they could be somewhat better or be about the same. As might be the Reds. This season (2023) could still be memorable for the Reds if they earnestly start bringing up the young guys throughout the season. That might make it interesting.

  11. Oldtimer

    I think Over. Total closer to 70 than 60.

    • magi210

      I agree here. Between the injuries and the team blowing up after the trade deadline, it was a confluence of bad mojo.

  12. Melvin

    With the new schedule going into effect next year along with the “David Bell Factor” it’s impossible to tell. Anywhere between 50 & 70 wins would be my guess. That’s narrowing it down isn’t it? 🙂

    • Jim Walker

      The hottest Reds line they could get going would probably be whether Bell makes it through the season parlayed to how many games he will be the manager. 😉

      • David

        As long as Management is paying David Bell, he will be manager. Unless the season actually turns into a true car wreck (which I don’t think it will), Bell is manager until his contract runs out.
        The roster has a lot of holes and problems, but that doesn’t excuse a lot of bad decisions and poor leadership from Bell, as many here observe to be the case.

      • TR

        Bell will be the Red’s manager until new controlling ownership takes over at the end of this season.

      • 2020ball

        I think his seat is hotter than people around here think

  13. Rednat

    looking at the schedule I think we have about 100 “winnable” games against teams in our weight class. we would have to win 65 % of those to go over which may be a tall task. I am taking the under

    • CFD3000

      Rednat – so you’ve already got 62 games that the Reds can’t possibly win? If they do win 65% of those 100 “winnable” games, and just 1/4 of the rest that’s a .500 season. I guess that’s why they play them on the field… I’m still strong on “Over”.

      • Rednat

        i don’t see us beating teams like the dodgers, cardinals,braves, phillies, mets, Yankees, Redsox at all. maybe we swipe a few games but no more than that. i think the talent disparity is that large in baseball right now. especially when it comes to the position players. the league is made up of haves and have nots and the reds are definitely in the have nots category

  14. LuciusRuber

    young pitching staff, shallow bench, inevitable injuries, aging superstar, and negligent owners-I’ll take the under hoping to be wrong

  15. IndyRedsFan

    Definitely taking the over. They’ll win 70 minimum.

  16. west larry

    I’ll take the over. somewhere between 69-72,

  17. Linkster

    I’m a life-long Reds fan and optimist. But, the Reds will be hard pressed to not lose 100 again. Too many young players, terrible defense, no offensive players that place fear, weak bullpen (again) and probably the worst manager in the game. Sorry, taking the Under on this one.

  18. KG

    Over. And I’m not talking about betting on the number of games won or lost. I mean “Over”, as in “I’m completely over Reds ownership not caring about trying to win with their baseball team.” Disgusting.

  19. TR

    I know nothing about the over/under’s and am not interested. I’ll stick with the Fl. lotto and wait for the Reds to play the games.

  20. JB

    I’ll go with the under but I’ll be cheering them on to prove me wrong. I hope they win 90 despite the buffoons in the front office.

  21. catcard202

    Take the over…Reds are likely a 70 win team…More if EDLC & Marte get called up after the deadline.

  22. jay johnson

    over by 10 atleast.
    Im also of the mind that senzel will turn his game around and hit close to .300 with 15-20 bangers.
    Even with our ridiculous manager steering it ,the pen looks much improved.He will figure out a way to lose double digit games that should be wins but we will still be over.
    One can dream cant they.

  23. Larry Baker

    Hard to know the win numbers based on the current talent. If some of the long-shot free agent minor league players make the team and help win a few games are factors none of us know today. If this happens, Reds management will trade them. Hard to know how the younger minor league players will do when called up. With the current setup, it’s really hard to see many wins. The current Reds are lucky to be called a major league team.

  24. SOQ

    This discussion makes me sad. 64.5 Wins? Why bother?

  25. Michael

    I despise gambling but I would take the over in a friendly chat. Injuries could kill them particularly in the starting rotation but I think India and Votto bounce back, some of the rookies provide a solid contribution, the bullpen becomes somewhat of a strength and the big 3 win about 40 games between them. I would have enjoyed seeing Cueto back on the team but I am not hugely concerned about depth barring major injuries.

  26. JayTheRed

    Honestly with the rule changes how are any predictions very accurate. Nobody knows how no shifts, pitch clocks and rules about batters having to be in the box are going to change the game. No one knows how many times pitchers are going to accidently throw over too many times. I think we might see several balks early in the season.

    I know this is not going to be a winning team, but I feel like if we can get some good health back from the guys we lost last year, maybe we win 70 maybe. Until the first month of the season is over and we know if Antone and several other injured players from last season are able to produce decently, I don’t know what we have.

  27. REDSMAN

    Wow! This is a fascinating thread. But to imagine the Reds going over 64.5 wins? After last years result? That is pure lunacy! This team has only 3 ‘legitimate’ starters…maybe. In an era when most of the top teams are turning to six man rotations!

    I know several posters asked the question last year at the deadline after Castillo and Mahle departed… “Who’s going to fill the innings they had been throwing?” Are we any closer to an answer? No, and in fact there seems to be no urgency in filling those holes. Overton, Dunn, Williamson, Herget, Lively etc? You have to be kidding me! These are NOT good answers to the above question! In the meantime Cueto and other real possibilities, sign with the Marlins and their ilk. This organization doesn’t give a flying crap if they only win 60, 50 or even worse.

    Anyone that truly believes this team may win 64, 65 or more games…Stop drinking the Kool-aid! And about all those nagging injuries, with guys like Moustakis and cohorts, and thinking this year will not be the same; Hasn’t anyone observed that bad teams always have malingerers on their rosters? Nobody really likes playing 162 games for a team that is just as likely to get a beat down as actually competing day in, day out. Will that be any different this year?

    And for all the names being thrown out there as ‘saviors’ of the team…let’s see how many actually prove to live up to their so called potential. EDLC aside, you are putting way too much hope in the Spencer Steers of the world and/or guys like Senzel, or even Marte.

    No, this team is unlikely to turn the ship around and be competitive in ‘23, ‘24 or anytime soon unless the Castellini’s loose their grip on their control of said team and sell to someone else who truly is interested in WINNING! 15, 16 or however many years it has been since Bob promised he would bring a winner to town is more than enough time to prove otherwise.

    Again, Stop drinking the Kool-aid!

    • 2020ball

      Being positive about your favorite team by taking the over on **64**!@!! wins is drinking the kool-aid? Not sure what youre talking about, would way rather have an optimistic outlook and fail at that than what you’re suggesting.

  28. VegasRed

    Hilarious thread about a pathetic team!

    But this also shows why I believe if reds’ owners tried to compete even a little bit, the fans would show up. Sigh.

  29. Jim t

    Guys I’m taking the over. I like the front of our rotation and the possibility of an improved bull pen with the return of some of our injured.

    Couple that with a healthy season from India and Stephenson and a step forward from our prospects and I see us winning at least 70 games.

    Still have a long way to go but I see our record improving from last year.

    • Chris Holbert

      If ifs and buts were candy and nuts….

    • Rod Andrews

      I agree with you. Just not having the overwhelming injury situation of last year should get us to 70 wins. I think our rotation is going to be even better than we imagine. We’re on the right track.

  30. citizen54

    Over. ZiPS has the Reds at about 21 WAR so you add that to 47 and get 68 wins.

    And Steamer has Lodolo, Green and Ashcraft, as a group, projected to be better than Castilo, Gray and Mahle, as a group, in 2023.

    • Old Big Ed

      Is 47 the number of wins that a team of all replacement guys would theoretically win?

      I calculate the team bWAR last year to be 17.7, which would compute to 64-65 wins last year, or pretty close to the actual result.

      • citizen54

        Yes, the Bref formula is

        wins = bWAR + (.294 * # of games).

  31. Dean Rock

    Let’s stop all the useless rhetoric. Our Team MVP last season was Kyle freaking Farmer. Nuff said.

  32. Dean Rock

    Sorry to be Debbie Dow er, but there is nothing about this franchise I find exciting or fun to discuss.
    Wake me next year when EDLC is in Cincy.