Today we’re kicking off one of my favorite series of the offseason. If Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine taught us anything it’s that everyone loves the long ball. Ok, maybe that wasn’t the exact takeaway from those two guys, but long home runs have been something people have talked about for over a hundred years. Only in the last decade or so, though, have we truly been able to measure their distance with *some* accuracy. Thanks to ball tracking in the big leagues we can compare 1-to-1 how far a baseball went. Every Monday for the next few months we’re going to be counting down the 10 longest home runs hit by the Cincinnati Reds in 2022.
The 10th longest home run of the season in 2022 by a Red was on August 29th by Stuart Fairchild. The home run came in the 5th inning when Fairchild crushed the first pitch of the at-bat into the bleachers at Great American Ball Park off of St. Louis Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas.
The Video
The Metrics Behind The Blast
An 89.8 MPH slider hanging in the middle of the plate usually isn’t a good recipe for a pitcher and Stuart Fairchild made Miles Mikolas pay, sending it out at 108 MPH for a solo home run.
Distance Metrics
Distance: 431 Feet
Reds Ranks: 10th
Major League Baseball Rank: 450th (tie)
Stuart Fairchild Rank: 2
Other Metrics
Launch Angle: 28°
Exit Velocity: 107.6 MPH
Reds Exit Velocity Rank (home runs only): 14th (out of 156)
MLB Exit Velocity Rank (home runs only): 1072nd (out of 5214)
The Story Behind The Blast
Miles Mikolas was cruising along when the bottom of the 5th inning began and the St. Louis Cardinals were up 8-0. TJ Friedl led off the inning with a home run to put Cincinnati on the board. After a ground out from Nick Senzel it was time for Stuart Fairchild to step up to the plate and he hit the second homer of the inning to make it an 8-2 game. Two batters later Chuckie Robinson hit his 1st home run of his career to make it 8-4. That was as close as things got on the night as the Cardinals pulled away for a 13-4 victory.
You can follow along the entire series here
Where that ball landed, you would think it would be longer
Fairchild’s 2nd ranked HR. So, he has two of the top ten? Not bad for a guy that looks like a teenager. Actually, I wished I’d looked that young as a teenager. I’d like to see him stick vs. Fraley or Friedl – better left/right balance.
You’d actually take a lower OPS from a guy because he’s more balanced? why?
Because the roster isn’t big enough for a platoon strategy at multiple positions. And Fairchild likely has upside. Fraley, for example, has never hit
LH’ers, unlikely to start now, more or less a poor man’s version of Winker. And Bell tends to focus more on handedness than splits, leading to missed opportunities. Therefore, I prefer an everyday player with balanced splits.
Sure, who wouldn’t want a more balanced player? But I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for the Reds to pony up for one on their budget. What’s wrong with a guy putting up a .800+ OPS in 400 PAs from the left side for a few years until someone better develops from the farm? Gives you 200 PAs to see if Senzel or Gilliam or someone else might develop. Unless they acquire someone else between now and Spring Training Fraley, Fairchild, and Friedl would be three primary OFs next season.
These balanced players youre talking about dont exist, or arent available because theyre all stars. So it sounds to me like you simply prefer another flawed player that can sorta hit the lefties you face in 1/3 of your games and is mediocre in the other 2/3. GL with your AAA club I guess. Why not utilize all those players to their strengths? It isn’t that difficult.
And I dont give a rats behind what Bell will do, I’m asking you what you would do.
LDS’s argument has validity but when building a team on the cheap, like the Reds appear to be doing, players have to be able to play multiple positions to increase the team’s ability to platoon. I thought the Athletics got by on this sort of platooning for as long as Billy Beane has been there (?). Platoon players don’t play enough to get the stats that earn big contracts.
Give the “teenager” a lot of credit, he has built some serious forearms and legs (and has decent skill) to go along with his rather youthful appearance. That being said, he, along with most of the outfielders are missing a few tools to be long term effective starters. He is amongst a group of 6-7 OFs who will try again to show that they are MLB players just like last year.
If the owners commit to any spending this year, I would like them to obtain one decent MLB CF so that less time is wasted the wannabees.
The WS Braves entirely rebuilt all three of their OF positions with 1 or 2 WAR low cost guys because of injuries, and the manager got good performance from all three. I suppose we don’t have that capability (or desire) on behalf of the Reds. I guess I’m not listening but please don’t tell me that not even one 2 year contract will be offered before opening day.
What is Fairchild missing to be an effective long term MLB starter?
He finished with a seasonal MLB OPS of .800/ OPS+ of 116. He is balanced from both sides of the plate. With the Reds his OPS/OPS+ was .897/141.
Agreed the sample sizes are still small; but, his MLB performance is not an outlier from what he has done in about 1 season (combined) worth of PAs at the AAA level.
His overall K rate (30.9%) (offset somewhat by his BB rate of 7.3%). Given his .346 OBP, the K rate is not really a concern. Looking at his time with the Reds, these improve to 25% and 7.4% (.374 OBP).
Fairchild is fast. From memory, he had a speed burst on the bases which topped Aquino for fastest recorded by a Reds player all season.
He is effective defensively at getting to balls and completing plays. His arm is at least adequate.
Super star? No. Solid everyday OF? Why not.