The crew at MLB Pipeline put together an All-Rookie team for the 2022 season and the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff was well represented. Two Reds pitchers made the 1st team and two more made the 2nd team.
Nick Lodolo and Alexis Diaz were named to the 1st team. Lodolo was one of the five starting pitchers named to the team. The left-handed starter threw 103.1 innings with a 3.66 ERA (122 ERA+). In his 19 starts he allowed just 90 hits, walked 39 batters (though he did lead the league with 19 hit batters), and he struck out 131. Lodolo finished 5th among starters in fWAR this season behind Spencer Strider, George Kirby, Reid Detmers, and Joe Ryan. He was also 5th in ERA during the season.
Alexis Diaz led all rookie relievers (minimum 40 innings) in ERA this season, edging out Jhoan Duran 1.84 to 1.86 on the year. Diaz pitched in 59 games, going 7-3 with 10 saves. The righty threw 63.2 innings with 33 walks and he struck out 83 batters.
The 2nd team featured two more starting pitchers from the Reds with both Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft being named to the team. Greene posted a 4.44 ERA in 24 starts, really taking big strides in the second half of the season as he began to limit the home runs he allowed while continuing to limit walks and pick up plenty of strikeouts. His 164 strikeouts were second only to Spencer Strider’s 165 among all rookie pitchers in 2022. Greene’s .220 average against was third in baseball among rookie starting pitchers this season (minimum 90 innings).
Graham Ashcraft was having a strong season until he hit the injured list in August. When he returned he struggled over the final two weeks of the year and saw his ERA balloon from 3.97 after 16 starts to 4.89 after 19 starts. Ashcraft, unlike the other three Reds pitchers on the list, doesn’t strike out many hitters. But he also led the rookie crop in baseball in ground ball rate and it wasn’t particularly close. Ashcraft’s 55% ground ball rate was the best among rookies by 9%, topping Nick Lodolo at his 46% rate (this is among all MLB rookie starters, not just Reds).
This is great. Certainly, something to build upon!
Well earned by all of them. Looking forward to seeing some steady growth going forward.
Pretty awesome to have four. The question is how long will they stay on the Reds come pay day. I guess we can enjoy them for a few years until then.
Yeah, sorry but I don’t see the re-signing of rookies FIVE YEARS from now to be the question.
A lot will happen between now and then.
I’d enjoy seeing Diaz receive a few RoY votes.
not unexpected, well deserved. Maybre in 2024, we will have a couple of positional players make the rookie hitting team,
The cornerstones of the next Reds playoff team!
Let’s watch them all in 2023 after a great 2022 season. The sophomore year is often a a little difficult to the most of rookies
It’s obvious the Reds have the makings of an outstanding pitching staff. All that is needed now is the emergence of outstanding offense and defense, hopefully led by EDLC. In addition, a bit of money spent by ownership for a good veteran or two could guarantee a winning team for ML baseball’s oldest franchise.
“…a bit of money spent by ownership for a good veteran or two could guarantee a winning team for ML baseball’s oldest franchise.”
The Reds had the veterans, but decided not to pay them. Instead, they traded them.
The primary owner and his sons are the problem. For 17 seasons they have proven that they are the impediment to “guarantee a winning team.” As long as they are in control, there will be no championship in Cincinnati.
The only thing they can guarantee is that they will protect their profit margins. Bet on it.
Been a fan too long to give up hope for positive ownership change of the Reds.
That’s really cool, Ashcraft might have made 1st team if he didn’t get hurt, he was the most consistent prior to the injuries.
But wouldn’t you really rather have Spencer Strider?
As a 22 year old, he was a big contributor to the Braves regular season record. Of course, they are OUT now.
Sometimes young pitchers are REAL phenoms and look great at 22 or 23, then burn out or have arm troubles, or actually are great and end up in the Hall of Fame.
Don Gullet was the youngest pitcher to win 100 games, then his left shoulder broke and he was done.
Hunter Greene is an amazing talent, and I think he will get better and more consistent in 2023. He is also a pretty smart guy, and learns fast. He seems to have mastered a slider, and that is a killer pitch, combined with his fastball.
Nick Lodolo (except for the bad luck of being a “Nick” and playing for the Reds) looks to have great stuff, and probably had the best “overall year” (well, everybody here already knows that). Can he sustain that kind of work? Will he break down?
Graham Ashcraft throws pretty hard, and induces a lot of ground balls.
Now, they need a good bullpen. Is that possible?
Ancient Reds’ fans experts say….Maybe.
When the Reds drop $92 mil on Nick or Hunter or Graham, we’ll know they’re serious 🙂
we know they’re serious now: they’re serious about not spending money.
Let’s hope Ashcraft bounces back from those last three horrid starts. His GB rate was a nice counterpoint to the throw as hard as you can and go for strikeouts. I think the prevailing thought by most here was that Lodolo was likely a head of the rest due to age and college experience. This year, Greene can start catching up. Three of the rotation spots are in good shape to start but those last two are likely shaky. Maybe Overton’s 40+ inning in the MLB are real but that’s really optimistic. The rest are a grab bag of maybes and maybe nots. Bob is going to have to spend some money to fill out the rotation.
In normal times, with a normal ownership, when you have 4 all-rookie team players, you add the veterans to go for a championship. That is NOT what this ownership is doing. Instead, they are asking the GM and team to produce 4 more all-rookie team players in the following years and hope that it comes before the young talent becomes arbitration eligible.
This is exactly how MLB should not let any team run an organization. It is anti-competitive. It is the very reason you have labor disputes every 5 years.
In normal years and in normal times, you take 4 all-rookie players and you sign some veterans to win.
I thank the baseball gods that when ATL had its young pitching and stars, they sprinkled in Sid Bream, Terry Pendleton and some other veterans and went for a championship.
CIN brass must have missed that.
Please sell the team to an ownership group committed to winning.
excellent point. we could have easily had co rookie of the year in 2021 with India and Stephenson and 4 pitchers on the all rookie team in 2022 yet we are still in tear down mode. looks like rebuilding mode doesn’t even start until 2024 once Votto and Moose are off the payroll. it is an odd situation
How promising would it have been to have Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle added to that rotation?
I know people are excited about EDLC, but I don’t see much talk on here anymore about Marte. Perhaps, he will turn out to be a fine player. He is going to have to be pretty outstanding for that trade to pay off in the Red’s favor.
Bob Castellini could have extended Castillo and Mahle and the Reds would have one of the most exciting rotations in Baseball right now.
I don’t have much faith that the current ownership will ever step up and do what is necessary to put a winning product on the field.
If we are being completely honest with ourselves, each of us know that three years from now, Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene will likely be pitching somewhere else.
Mahle spent the majority of his Twins 2022 season on the IL and heads to the off-season with serious concerns about his R shoulder.
Yeah, but there is no guarantee Tyler Mahle would have had problems had he stayed with the Reds.
Let’s not pretend it was some incredible foresight by Nick Krall. The Reds didn’t trade Mahle because he was injured, they traded him because they are cheap.
Hunter Greene has already had TJ surgery, but I am still glad he is in the Reds rotation.
C’mon V4L
Mahle got hurt. Thats a fact. Cant live in a hypothetical world and say wow…if the reds kept Mahle and castillo Reds woold have win. We actually have facts on what happened. Mahle got hurt and we got a haul . Thats the truth October 2022. Cant go back to April 2022 and weave a hypothetical narrative. 2022 actually happened and Tyler Mahle couldn’t pitch after august 15th and his future is in question for 2023. Thats the truth now.
Thats the same for Wade Mile and Sonny Gray as well.
Pitchers get hurt.
You are correct, pitchers do get hurt and when you have have quality pitchers you should try to hold on to them.
By the way Old School, Predicting that this team is going to be posed to win n 2024 is the epitome of living in a “hypothetical world”.
Yeah V4L, Mahle was hurt BEFORE the trade. Not some incredible foresight by Krall (keep banging that drum), just reality. Hey, he may very well rebound from his shoulder issues, but it was a problem that landed him on the IL BEFORE the trade.
Krall traded a pitcher who might have lingering shoulder issues for a nice haul.
Does that stick in your craw (Krall)?
i totally agree with you. 2023 could have been a special year for the reds. why did the reds have to go all Tampa Bay Rays this year.? Let’s face it the chances of Marte, Arroyo, Steer, or Encarnacion Amounting to much are slim.
the same caliber players will be available at the trade deadline next year. if the reds did lay an egg and got off to a bad start then sure, trade them. But I am with you. a pitching staff of Mahle, Castillo, Greene, ashcraft, overton could have created some excitement. at least the reds could have been competitive for Joey’s last year. Seems like it was just a way to save some more money. I Feel sorry for us fans and Joey as well
Rednat you are 100% correct Sir!
The argument that the Reds made a smart move in trading Mahle because he has since became injured is laughable on it’s face.
Tyler Mahle was traded to dump salary pure and simple.
I swear I sometimes think the Reds have their employees join groups like this to spread their propaganda. But of course, that would mean they would have to pay someone to do it, and we all know the Castellinis would never do that.
It is possible they could have been competitive, but that is mostly because the Pirates and Cubs are both currently bad teams also. However the decision was made in 2021 that payroll had to be cut. I don’t feel this is because the Reds are cheap or Bob is greedy. It is really the results of previous poor decisions. The idea that the Reds could go into 2023 and then trade away everyone if it didn’t go well and still get the same return is not realistic. The guys they traded had significantly more value with control beyond 2022. That is the exact same logic that caused the 2014 rebuild to fail. Frazier, Cueto, Chapman and others didn’t bring back the high ceiling guys the Reds needed. They brought back “MLB ready” guys who had little chance of becoming stars. The Reds aren’t going to compete with a bunch of 1 WAR players, they need develop a couple All Star caliber players, sign a couple of free agents, and fill in whatever holes remain with those “MLB ready” players
This ownership will never sign free agents who are difference makers.
First, the Reds will never outbid other teams for key free agents and second, no quality free agent would ever sign here. Nick Castellanos was the most significant free agent the Reds have signed in many years, and he only agreed to sign with the Reds because the team gave him plenty opportunities to opt out.
It’s quite possible the Reds may develop an elite player. If they do so, it will likely be EDLC. But there is a fairly decent chance the players they acquired this past summer, will never become significant contributors at the major league level.
Tyler Stephenson and Jonathon India will likely be moved in 2024 or 2025 at the latest. They soon will be followed by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo.
For whatever reason, ownership has decided they are no longer going to be in the business of signing players to multi-year contracts.
Maybe it’s because Bob Castellini is poor. I tend to think it is because he is cheap. But regardless, the end result is the same.
If it is because ownership doesn’t have the resources to operate a major league team, then they should do the decent thing and sell it. The approach they are taking now is killing Major League Baseball in this market.
Votto4life, I think you will be severely disappointed with any other ownership group as well. There is a very small chance a new owner is going to dump massive amounts of his own money into making the Reds a contender. Someone wealthy enough to afford a MLB team didn’t get there by excessive spending, it was through making a profit. The Reds have to win by making smarter decisions. You pointed out they will never outbid anyone, but that is exactly what they did with Castellanos, Moustakas, and Shogo. Only one of them worked out, and that is what led to the massive cost cutting by the ownership.
Of all the things the ownership deserves criticism for, being cheap is probably at the bottom of the list. At the end of the day it is a business, and at least what is publicly available shows the Reds are turning a very small profit, which gets passed out to a far larger group than just Bob. Blaming the problems on Bob’s bank account is really just a lazy argument. As I have said before you probably need to find another team to support with the expectations you have. The Reds are never going to be massive spenders
Bill, I may or may not be disappointed in a different ownership group, but I am more than willing to take the chance, because I am 100% disappointed with the current owner.
The Castellinis have had 17 years to build a championship team and they have failed miserably.
You say blaming Bob Castellini is a lazy argument. What has been the one constant for the past 17 years? Here is a clue …. It’s Bob Castellini. General Managers, Field Managers, coaching staffs, player development staff and players have all come and gone. Bob Castellini remains in place and the Reds continue to lose.
It is not only about payroll, Cleveland has a smaller payroll and have younger players, yet they make the play-offs.
You have made it quite clear from your posts that you are willing to excuse every poor decision the Castellinis make. if you want to worship Bob and little Phil that’s your right.
What you don’t get to do is to tell me which team I get to follow. I have followed this team for more than a half of a century.
I have survived bad Reds owners before. I’ll survive this one. Anonymous internet guy, whose opinions I don’t value, doesn’t get to change that.
Votto4life, you seem like a very miserable person and I would suggest counseling. You also are trying to start an argument over things I never said. Calling Castellini cheap is a lazy argument. He clearly gets the blame for the current dumpster fire, but it is not because he is cheap and making billions off owning the Reds. I also didn’t tell you to change teams. I suggested another team with deep pockets would make you happy, because the Reds will never be that team. It is clear you will never be happy with the Reds. I worship Castellini? The guy has a huge list of mistakes and short comings, none of which I give him the pass for. What I don’t blame him for is not bankrupting himself so random internet guy whose opinion he doesn’t value wants him to spend all his money.
You act like a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum when you don’t get your way.
Bill, this is a forum to discuss Cincinnati Reds baseball. I express my opinions here.
I’m sorry if it hurts your feelings when someone has an opinion that differs from your own. Not to worry, if the mean old man on the internet upsets you, you can always scroll pass without comment.
Votto4life,
It is amusing that you think you upset me, then tell me to scroll by without comment which is exactly what you could do, but you feel the need for insults as opposed to discussion. Its also amusing that you think only your opinion matters and get angry when someone provides a logical argument against you. You then resort to making up things and trying to belittle the other individuals with opposing points of view.
I will concede your opinion is correct when you can back up with facts that Bob is withholding massive sums of money that he could have invested into the free agent deals you want, without taking a loss. I will again remind you his willingness to spend in the past is exactly what got them into the situation they are in now. The Reds have spent money on a lot of players, Votto, Mesoraco, Suarez, Bailey, Moose, Shogo, Castellanos, Bruce, Phillips, etc. Some of those were really bad decisions. You can blame that on management, ownership, or whoever you want and it would be warranted. However it is not because they refuse to spend. They just refuse to spend at the amounts you want them to, which I will again remind you is not your money and they aren’t taking a financial loss to make you happy
Bill,
I don’t have anything else to add. VegasRed’s comments below pretty much sums you up.
Rednat, with all due respect (and I’m not attacking you) you are far free being 100% correct.
Mahle pitched all of 119 innings last year. Does that presume a “special” 2023?
You failed to include Sonny Gray in your 2023 pitching staff even though he too was traded to save money/gain prospects.
Gray pitched all of 120 innings last year.
Which leaves only Castillo of the departing SP (unless you want to include the 37 IP from Miley). Should a team tinkering with a 100 loss year re-sign a TOR pitcher or should they trade him for a prospect haul? And didn’t Cincy, by all accounts, get a true prospect haul for Castillo?
The Mariners got a 1-1 record from Castillo in the playoffs. What would the Reds have expected from Castillo in the playoffs?
2022: 0-0
2023: 0-0
2024: ???
I’m not interested in “excitement”. I’m interested in WS titles. Krall is doing exactly would he should be doing.
I would mention 2 things;
1) its incredibly positive to have 4 pitchers on any all-rookie team in 1 year. This on top of our 3 good rookies in 2021 (Stephenson, India, and Guitierrez) is even better.
2) In watching this year’s playoff series, our Reds are incredibly far away on the offensive and defensive side of position players from competing for a title, much less the playoffs. We do not play fundamental defense or make enough solid contact to compete with the top teams of MLB. Too many bonehead base running gaffes, balls in the air that should be caught and opposing runners allowed to take extra bases. And in the batters box, our hitters are not nearly enough mentally tough to compete against top pitching and not give away their at bats.
However, our young pitching is very impressive.
Bill must be a friendly acquaintance of the Castellini—
Or at least the type of gullible fan they have been crying poor to who actually buys that nonsense. He’s not alone either, even on this board.
Castellini owner group subscribes to that axiom that a new sucker is born everyday.
+10,000
I was going to come on here and complain about how they should of this or that, but I am too tired. I will just sit back watch the crap they serve up for 23, but I will refuse to give them a dime of my money. Will I pay attention yes. Will I pay to support them….No the ownership doesn’t deserve that.
Don’t hold back, Magnum. Tell us how you really feel … 😀
You would think that there would be more rookies putting up a better ERA than near 5. I know that ERA doesn’t matter in today’s yuppie baseball but it is some kind of base to judge from. These guys do look promising but not so great that they earned an award. Keep in mind that hitting across the board has been horrible. I guess the piney park should also be factored in for our pitches, so maybe they didn’t suck but awards? Maybe there weren’t many rookies that pitched innings? I’m just jaded with baseball these days in general and then the owners of this franchise are the opposite of friend family. They turned myself and my group of friends from diehard to very casual fans. Many in their fan base feel as I do. It’s hard to be possible. Like someone else said, if they do become really good, then what? It takes time to develop and to continue to trade fan favorites while pretending to play poor is old and people see through their BS. Screw bobble head day, give us solid players. Give us one superstar and build around that guy. Bottom hasn’t been that guy for awhile but they extended him after an mvp year when he had like 3 years of control left. That’s a moron business decision that cripples. He got hurt the next year, think he may have been cheaper than right after the mvp? Just stupid. When he was in his prime, they didn’t add the pieces necessary. I use to breathe baseball, it’s not very fun anymore. It’s not popular with people under 30. It’s a dyeing game. Maybe they’ll juice the players or the balls again to help ruin it for traditionalist. They’ve already made the records pointless. That was so fun following records when they were relevant. Stupid things like putting an unearned runner on second base should help things. I hate that I don’t love this game anymore!
Brian, you make some really good points. I am angry at what baseball has become. I am also furious at the Castellinis for ruining this team. I followed baseball 24/7 365 days a year for most of my life. The game was a very important part of my life and the Reds meant so much to me for the past 50 years.
I haven’t watched an inning of the post season. I only attended three Reds games this past summer, normally I attend 20-25 games with at least a couple of road trips thrown in there.
I have no plans to attend any games in 2023.
I guess I should have read before posting. Puney park… Fan Friendly… Votto, not bottom. Auto correct isn’t correct.
The Reds need left handed hitting. Interview from C Trent last week saying Winker is having a hard time being away from his daughter who lives in Cincinnati. A Seattle beat writer obliterated Winker today questioning his work ethic and tired act and suggesting he was absent from the team because everyone was sick of him and Seattle needs to get rid of him. So much so, the GM had to intervene and defuse the drama and said Winker had a knee procedure and thats why he was gone.
Hes a $ 7 mil elite lefty hitter in 2022. Bring him back and trade for him with a #25-30 prospect and give him a first baseman mitt and a DH tag and a year to build his brand back up. Maybe the Reds get him to DH beyond 2023 on the cheap. As C Trent says, Da Wink can hit.
I’m for it if Jesse is free of whatever injury he’s had. Winker is a natural hitter and time at 1st. base and DH makes sense.
I’d love to have Jesse winter back at 8$ million in 2023. But there are 2 likely problems;
1) seattles going to want something good in return
2) Reds don’t want to spend 8$ million for a 1 year player.
Perhaps meet in the middle? Send them Matt McLain and they pick up half of Jesse’s 2023 salary?
That’s a fairly stiff price given Winker’s current contract.
I don’t hold out a huge amount of hope for McLain to be a top shelf MLB hitter, but the Reds are pretty well stocked with MOR middle infielders.
They might be able to go a bit cheaper…send Dunn back to the Mariners.
Each team assumes a bit of risk: risky shoulder vs risky neck.
Sounds like Winker has a neck / cervical disk issue, too.
Maybe the same surgery that Peyton Manning had.
I suffered through a such an issue. Excruciating nerve pain the elbow and fingertips.
Didn’t have that fusion surgery though.
I hope he gets through it.
You can say the Reds didn’t know Winker, Mahle, Sonny, and others would get hurt in 2022, but the odds say they will as they get close to 30. Everybody says the Reds could have signed Castillo for 5/108. They did that with Homer. How did that turn out?
The Reds really haven’t had a unified strategy for winning in the Castellini era. The mlb ready returns in 15 and 16 were a stupid idea. The timing was more stupid. Free agency rarely works out for the team.
The Reds are finally on the right track The timing of the recent trades maximized the return of young high end talent. The draft and international signings appear to be top notch. They should draft high in 23 and they have at least 1 really good intl youngster next year
As long as they fill the pipeline and keep filling it, they have a chance to win the WS in a few years for several years.
They have got to cut down strikeouts in the minors and cut down walks by pitchers.
There is little need to sign expensive contracts for guys near 30.
The most important thing is to stick with this strategy.. not change in a year or two.
I believe the Castellinis want to win. I think they got a lot of expensive bad advice from Jocketty and Williams.
And 1 more thing. The experts say the Votto contract has more than paid for itself as if this is a model for how to do it. I say no way. While he has been relatively healthy during this contract, there are several really bad years in the 2nd half of it, and the Reds have won exactly 2 playoff games during his career. You can say that is a recipe for success all you want. I’ll take a hard pass on that contract 9 years ago when it was signed. Same with Griffey, Homer, Cueto (after he was traded), and all the rest of the high priced 30 year olds. Even the “team friendly” contracts of Mesaroco and Suarez are heaping piles of dung.
Well, I was onboard with most of your first post, then I read your reply to yourself.
I can’t believe the Reds or literally any other team in MLB wouldn’t redo the Votto contract if they had a chance.
I know nobody agrees with me on this, but I stand by my statement. In 5 of the 1st 9 years of this contract, he has not lived up to the cost. Next year will likely be 6 out of 10. In his career the team is hundreds of games below .500 and is 2-9 in the playoffs.
I want the Reds to win the World Series. They have come nowhere close to that at any point in his career. Not even a sniff.
Yeah Greenfield, I also was onboard with most of your first post and also jumped ship when you started ripping the Votto contract. The Reds made out like bandits on that contract, and your math on the benefit vs the cost is WAY suspect.
You want to find out why the Reds didn’t win a WS in the last decade? Look elsewhere, because JV worked his tail off to be the best player he could be, while remaining truly loyal to Cincy.
You say “I know nobody agrees with me on this” while never pausing to question why. “Nobody” agrees with you, because it’s a mistaken notion.
Not trying to be confrontational Earmbrister, and I generally agree with much of what you have to say, but I don’t undetstand how the Reds made out so good here.
In 3 of the 9 years of the contract, JV’s individual numbers are very good and the individual numbers line up pretty well with the contract. He was paid like a top tier player and he performer like a top tier player. Then there are two years in the middle (one in the .280s and one in the .260s). I give him top tier credit for one of the two. That leaves 4 years that are statistically bad to terrible. He had good years before the contract for sure, but I stand by my statement even if I stand alone. 5 of the first 9 years are not good. And, it does not look good for next year at all. That is not “made out like a bandit” success to me.
And, when 1 guy out of 26 (less than 4% of the roster) accounts for well over 10% of your payroll, his contributions are more significant to the success or failure of the team than the other 25. The Reds are 2-9 in the playoffs in his career (his playoff OPS is .563 by the way) and the Reds are hundreds of games below .500 in his career in the regulat season. Again, not good at all.
I have tried to make the case that both individually as well as a team, this contract is far from a success for the Reds.
I’m not being a jerk, but please tell me where I am wrong. Give me facts not Just, he’s a great guy and loves the Reds. If that were the case, he would have said he wants to help the team in any way he can in his last year rather than saying he plans to play 1st and bat 3rd next year. All the numbers say I am correct.
Peace.
I need to correct 1 thing I said. The Reds are 140 games below .500 in JV’s career. I said they were hundreds of games below .500. That fact does not change my opinion. It’s still bad. And as stated, the cost of his contract was way more than the average “cost per man” on the roster.
And, I’ll also point out, my opposition is based upon the last nine years and the upcoming 10th year of this contract. There were 5+ amazing years before the contract. They are not part of this discussion.
Winker needs minor knee surgery followed by pretty major neck surgery for the bulging disc. Winker is getting a little more than eight million in 2023, then he is a free agent. What if the reds roll the dice and offer to trade one of the shortstops acquired in the Castillo trade for Winker if Seattle pays all but a million of Winkers Salery. The reds could then go slow with Winker and let him learn a little first base when Votto needs a Day off, and dh him alternating with Votto and Moose if the reds keep him. I would rather turn the moose loose in spring training.
The kicking the can down the road comments are not correct. Signing Bailey for $100M has nothing to do with Castillo and an $100M investment therein. Or the Braves must be really really stupid for signing Acuna, Olson,Riley, Albies, and Harris for 5-10 year deals. In 2 years, they won’t win 65 games because they overvalued all these guys. And nobody will want to trade for them. Gosh, the Braves need to read Reds Nation and Homer Bailey.
The Reds wouldn’t pay Castillo his due. But Seattle did and the Braves, Yanks, and Phils would have if they obtained him. And the Yanks who made a strong offer for his services including Peraza, are looking smart or lucky. They still have their 3-4 prospects and they are still in the hunt.
When the time comes to pay these guys the best you can do is to make an educated guess. No guarantees. You are wrong if you cut them lose and they pitch great somewhere else. You are wrong if you sign them and they get injured or falloff the cliff. Bigger market teams can absorb the mistakes more easily no doubt. But you do the best you can. And if isn’t any good, you are replaced or should be. There are some exams upcoming in 2023 including Dunn, Fraley, Williamson, Steer, Barerro, etc. Some of them better shine.
Rob… way more long term contracts for guys 30 and up turn out to be terrible for team than are ever successes. Homer’s is just one example. The chances of a guy who throws 98 mph dozens of times a game not breaking down in his early 30s are slim. Sure there are exceptions, but the odds are not good.