It sounds like the Cincinnati Reds front office is already letting the fans know that 2023 isn’t going to be a season in which they plan on trying to compete. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer published a piece this morning with plenty of statements ($$) from Cincinnati Reds general manager Nick Krall. There were plenty of quotes that contradict previous quotes from the same interview.
Krall noted multiple times that the 2022 season was unacceptable. Yet he later says that everyone has to come into spring training and earn their roster spots.
Do you know who doesn’t have to come into a spring training and earn their roster spot? Good players with a track record of being good. Sounds like the plan is to not bring any player like that into the fold.
Later in the piece he’s quoted as saying that “our expectations are always to get to the playoffs, win a World Series”.
That’s nice to say, but when you follow it up with this quote, it kind of means that your expectations are actually just prayers and hopes rather than something you are planning on actually trying to make happen.
“That’s our expectations. That’s what we want to do. I don’t want to do anything less than that. We also have to be realistic about where players are in their growth, and we have to continue to grow them as big-league players and move forward.”
Now, I do think that Nick Krall is being straight with the people here in that we have to be realistic about where players are in their growth. Much of the farm system, one that is well regarded at this point after all of the trades since March, isn’t ready to step into the big leagues. The guys who reached Triple-A this year either have some big question marks about their performance there, or are named Spencer Steer (or in the case of Michael Siani, spent a week there). Double-A Chattanooga had the likes of Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand who put up very good numbers in their time in Double-A, but the other top 25 prospects who were in Double-A this season either didn’t really stand out or outright didn’t perform well for much of their time there.
Which brings us to the question of how can the expectation be to get to the playoffs, win a World Series, if you are already saying that the farm isn’t ready to step up yet but you also aren’t going to be bringing in big leaguers that can actually help you reach your expectation?
If the players in the farm system aren’t ready – fine. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that. Develop them in the minor leagues and when they are ready, then bring them up and see what happens. But until then, go out and get players who ARE ready to play in the big leagues and help you compete.
And if the plan is to simply not actually try to compete right now, then just say that. Or at the very least don’t say the expectation every year is to make the playoffs, win a World Series. That statement does not at all jive with the actions of the last year for this organization. That statement does not jive at all with the other things that were said.
I thought they gave up on 2023 at the end of 2021
The Lost Decade is upon us.
Krall is just like Bell in the sense that they both are willing to lie for their lying owners.
That is likely their main qualification for their respective jobs. Apparently no qualms about coming off as total puppets of the owners who have a 17 year track record of telling the Cincy community some real whoppers!
At least Krall made some decent trades to acquire young talent so I don’t see him as quite the doofus Bell and the owners are.
Either they and Reds brass think all reds fans are absolute dunces or they are just shameless liars. I think a lot of both of both of those going on.
But Krall isn’t lying at all – they’re not going to spend money to compete next year. They’re going to focus on player developing. He’s made that very clear – do not expect a great 2023. He’s saying things none of us want to hear but those aren’t lies.
Reds fans should just not show up at all. These owners have let a World series manager walk, have had 11 below. 500 seasons. Reds fans deserve better and let the franchise move. I get tired of hearing about greats from nearly 50 years ago. You talk about Reds greats the past 20 there are very few and its a reflection of the ownership. Its time for fans to quit being spit on. Hope opening day the crowd is small.
About the best we can hope for next year is not to lose 100 games
And what happens when these young guys make it to the bigs? Are the Reds going to look to move older guys (who may be inline for a healthy raise) to save money like they did this past offseason? I would like to see a writer try to nail down Krall on this question. If you were not willing to spend money then when you were so close last year, how am I supposed to have hope and believe that you will spend money three years from now when a similar scenario possibly presents itself?
It”s typical Reds double speak. This team is not going to compete in 2023, 2024,2025 and beyond. The Reds payroll will lower in 2023 than it is today.
While the Reds will save money when Votto and Moose come off the books, I have no faith the Reds will reinvest that savings into the team. In fact, based on the past two season, they almost assuredly will not.
Doug, thank you for the article. Little Phil’s crew will be posting here soon to tell us why this is a good thing.
They won’t compete next year and the only way they compete after that is if all these prospects bloom and they hit the big leagues running. If they come up and become Senzel and Robert Stephenson then we all need to find better things to do.
Some of us already have
I did that after this year’s 3-22 start. Most productive summer EVER. The Reds don’t deserve my attention.
That is really the big, 64 million dollar question.
When the “big” contracts of Votto and Moustakas come off the payroll, will the Reds spend some money for Free Agents to fill the holes, make a better bullpen, etc.?
Because…if they don’t, that’s a very clear signal that there is no winning future to this franchise (under the present ownership), and that likely when any player becomes too expensive to keep, they get traded for more “prospects”.
I am willing to “wait and see” for a little longer.
But only truly die hard fans will stick around for Pittsburgh Pirates, the Cincinnati edition.
Thats the signal to ALL Reds fans and locals to simply stop watching and going to games…period. Even if your company provides you “free” tickets, don’t go. Completely empty stadium. No way on this earth should opening day sell out. I am actually mildly angry at fans paying big $$$ to the owners for garbage.
Well that just means I won’t be making any trips to Cincinnati to watch them stink up the place if the team isn’t going to invest in the team then I am not going to invest in them as well
Nick Krall is walking blinded on a tightrope with a pit of saltwater crocs lurking beneath him.
He is blinded because he doesn’t know what next his boss(es) is/ are going to tell him next about how much smaller his budget for 2023 will be.
He is walking a tightrope between maintaining his personal credibility by speaking some truth about Reds situation but not so much truth it gets him fired.
Just for fun, what’s the over/ under he would have 100% cleaned house starting with Bell if it had been his decision and his alone? I think at least about 90% yes.
“…he later says that everyone has to come into spring training and earn their roster spots”.
People can always hope this also includes the manager 😉
I see them losing 90 games next year. If that doesn’t get Bell fired then I don’t know what to say. He kept his job this year is because tightwad Bob still owes him money for next year. I bet they don’t give Bell an extension I’m August next year.
For the Reds to lose 90 games next season they would have to show a 10 win improvement.
They lost 100 games this season with Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in the rotation for a good part of the season. I don’t see this team improving by 10 games next season. If anything, they may lose more games than they did this season.
We are entering a new dark age of Red’s baseball. The front office doesn’t even bother to deny it.
Yep
Votto4life- yeah you’re right. If the Reds lose 90, they would have to win 72. That isn’t happening.
The beat writers and radio personalities in this town are ridiculously bad. They never ask real questions or follow ups to comments. Imagine Nick Krall spewing this junk to New York media
For the most part, the beat writers in Cincinnati are just an extension of the Red’s PR Department. That is why I really appreciate the writer’s here in RLN. They are not only top notch writers, but they tell the truth. You can’t ask for more than that.
Agreed
Imagine Brian Cashman operating under the budget constraints that Nick Krall does.
Doug, agree with everything you state! Also, I would like to add (and I have stated this a couple times in posts this past summer) I believe this team will not sign any multi-year FA this off season and stick to 1 year “prove it” deals. Front office is waiting for the Moose and Votto contracts to drop from the books at the end of next season and then sell. The new owner will then be “granted” a fresh slate to build from and not “tied down” with any long term contracts. I am afraid that 2023 may be worse than 2022 unless the injured players return and catch fire (Stephenson, Antone, Sims, Votto, etc) and India bounces back and Steer improves, etc. You do an excellent job and appreciate all of the incites you provide throughout the year.
I think Spencer Steer will continue to improve, with more ML at bats. I think India will bounce back next season and hit 20-25 Hr and bat .270-.280, wherever he plays.
I think Tyler Stephenson will be fine and have a good year.
I don’t think Votto will bounce back…much. Joey is a slow healer, if the past is any guide. Joey will work hard at re-hab, because he is a grinder, but I don’t expect much from him next year.
Antone and Sims? Who knows, really? Antone has had Two TJ surgeries now. The prognosis is not good.
And Moustakas will be himself; out of shape and constantly getting hurt. Taking up a roster spot.
I have little faith that Votto will even be a replacement level platoon bat. Ludwig and Suarez were bad after shoulder issues. Antone and Sims may be done. One playoff loss since the last rebuild is disheartening
I’ll be curious to see who is protected on the 40 man roster, what FA’s are signed and the opening day roster. That will hopefully give me a understanding where they are headed. I love Kyle Farmer but he will be 33 and will be taking away sorting time of players for the 24 team. There is no room for him with India, Steer ,Barrero, Cruz,McLain and Senzel needing playing time. I don’t see any big time Free Agents signed this winter. Another quiet winter.
I agree the Reds will not sign any multi-year deals with free agents. I do think they are gonna have to bring in a veteran starting pitcher on a one-year deal if for no other reason than to provide leadership in the rotation for the youngsters. If they don’t it will be years before this team competes again. Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Cessa is okay, but you just can’t rely on minor leaguers, like Abbott, Stoudt and Williamson to fill in the rest of the rotation. It would be like starting this season all over.
JB, I hope the Reds keep Farmer at least until the trade deadline in ’23. He is the only reliable leader on the team (India and Stephenson could lead too, but they have to stay on the field). I strongly disagree in regard to Senzel and Barrero. Both are wasting roster spots and need to be traded for whatever non-40-man prospects they can get. The outfield is a mess and needs a complete overhaul
I think Barrero only has until Cruz is ready to join the Reds. He better figure it out early next year.
I would not mind seeing Johnny Cueto back in a Reds uniform. That is my choice for Veteran Starting pitcher.
I think the Reds are somewhere between a crossroads and quagmire. We have traded away a lot of talent (Luis, Mahle, Sonny, Wink, Nick, Geno, Tucker, etc.) for youth/prospects (Steer, Dunn, Fraley, Williamson, Marte, Arroyo, Stoudt, etc.). Some are near term and some are a year plus away. Combined with our own near term youth (Barerro, McLain, Greene, Diaz, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Friedl, etc.) that is our 2023 team. The quagmire part is we saw this version of the team in August and September, without a few injured players, and it wasn’t pretty at all. The crossroads part is it going to get a whole lot better with youth development and fewer injuries?? I suspose there is a reasonable case to be made that the big 3 could win 5-6 more games each with some bullpen and offensive help.But gosh where is this offense supposedly going to come from? I don’t see the Winks, Genos, and Nicks in this new lineup.who all is going to hit their 80-90 HRs and 250 rbis? And the elephant in the room question, what if Speer, Barerro, Fraley, Senzel, etc. don’t bop HRs but hit 220 again? We got this youth and gave away a bunch to acquire it. How many free agents are we going to have to acquire to fix it in 2024?
Doubt we see any additions, but we might see some extensions. Greene and Lodolo came up too soon to overlap with the prime of EDLC and Marte. Spend your $ this offseason extending those 2 for 8-10 years, make a real plan to be competitive 2024-2030.
I wish, but I don’t see any extensions at this point…if they wouldn’t extend Castillo even when they were ‘spending money’ I don’t see it happening now.
Nothing here suggests they won’t try to sign a few pieces to the club. An outfielder, backup catcher, and a starting pitcher are the only 3 spots I would look to add.
40 man spots are going to be hard to give up if you look to add much more than that and the last thing the reds need to do right now is try to buy their way out of the rebuild like they did in 2020. Add a couple guys that could help open the window sooner and let your very young core along with your farm system mature into the team you envisioned at the trade deadline
A healthy roster of the following looks fine to me. With normal improvements from the young players and no freak injuries taking out an all star catcher they could be next years version of this seasons orioles
C – Stephenson
1B – Votto
2B – India
SS – Barrero
3B – Steer
LF – FA signing
CF – Friedl
RF – Fraley
DH – Farmer
B – backup catcher
B – Senzel
B – Moustakas
B – Fairchild
De la Cruz up by mid season whether it’s at SS or in the OF.
Pitching staff of
Lodolo
Greene
Ashcraft
FA signing
Cessa/Dunn/Stoudt/Williamson/Overton
Diaz
Antone
Sims
Santillan
Sanmartin
Farmer
Moreta
Hoffman
Your every day lineup has Tyler Stephenson, a good platoon hitter in Fraley, and a bunch of guys who were below-average or worse in 2022 or entirely unproven rookies.
That doesn’t look fine to me. That looks like a roster that’s going to lose 85-95 games.
Basically the same team that ended the year. Can’t ask 25 players to have career years. Bench is weak and injuries happen and some will be on IL for parts of the year. Dark days ahead.
If I were Hunter Greene and woke up on the west coast (or wherever) to this news, I think I call my agent and say find a way to get me out of there NOW! then roll over and dream Krall didn’t really say the things he did.
Well I have them signing a FA outfielder so your comment is already off but Friedl had an .888 OPS after he was called back up to start august. I’m also banking on our RoY India having a better year than his injury plagued sophomore season. Including the 2 you mentioned that’s over half the lineup.
It leaves Votto, Steer, Barrero, and Farmer in the everyday lineup. Votto is 1B until he’s done, Steer + Barrero need everyday ABs (if Barrero keeps up as is then De La Cruz/McLain should be called up), and Farmer. Farmer is the only one in that group I’d say the reds should look to upgrade from.
Yep
For once I agree with Doug. This roster would be no better, and possibly worse than ’22. Unreliable bats like Barrero and Senzel (who I expect to be gone via trade or non-tender), washed up veterans like Votto and Moustakas. I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see Antone being counted on for much. Two-time TJ arms rarely succeed. Hoffman likely to be non-tendered and Buck Farmer is a free agent who, if I were him, will look for greener pastures.
Its not Hunter Greene who should have second thoughts…its Stephenson and India.
Another member of TeamPhil,
BDH if that roster looks fine to you, then you are going to be really happy with this team moving forward.
You don’t just go from a complete tear down to playoffs in 1/2 a season.
Next year Votto rides off into the sunset and it won’t be coming off the bench. Stephenson is an all star caliber catcher, India when healthy has proven to be very productive, and Farmer (LHP) + Fraley (RHP) are very good platoon hitters in the lineup. After that, sure it’s a bunch of youth, but why are we already wanting to take at bats from them when it’s who we’re hoping grows into the next core? The one large hole that wouldn’t block a young player where they can go out and get a proven player is in the outfield and that’s what I suggested in my post. If they do add a top/middle of the order bat there then I don’t see why they can’t play .500 ball give or take next year
V4L, I don’t really care for the Team Phil stuff. It is possible to be optimistic on the Reds future without standing in full support of ownership and agreeing that David Bell belongs here but seeing little value in firing him for 2023.
I think we ALL would like the Reds to win the World Series and may have different views on how to get there.
There is no need for name calling.
Fine? Did you watch this year’s team??
I agree with a lot of this and the 40 man is going to be tight unless they start giving up on a few young guys. I would look to move on from Senzel, Moose and Farmer as well. And they need to either move India back to 3B or find a trade partner that is willing to give up a starting caliber OF for him. He’s a liability at 2B.
Barrero would have a very short leash that might not extend out from spring training.
That roster will lose 105.
What !!! You’re not looking forward to that worst Reds team ever tag!
Its not Greene who should have second thoughts, its Stephenson and India.
I think Barrero may have blown his chance…
I am ok with him being the bench defensive player that can play CF or SS.
He has been given some pretty decent opportunities and really not shown he can hit at the Major League level.
The 1960 Reds won 67 games. The 1961 Reds won 93 games.
The 1971 Reds won 79 games. The 1972 Reds won 95 games.
The 1990 Reds were a whole lot better than the 1989 Reds.
The 2012 Reds were a whole better than the 2011 Reds.
Even the 1983 Reds were better than the 1982 Reds.
The 2023 Reds can be better (85 to 90 L) than the 2022 Reds.
Too early to give up now. If Krall and Bell don’t put a better Reds team on the field in 2023, both should get booted mid season.
The question in my mind is who is going to do the booting in mid-season if the current managing ownership stays the same?
+1000
1989 Reds were a bit of down year as everything went wrong including the whole thing with Pete. They finished every year 2nd in the west 85-88.
Same thing in ’71 – they had injuries galore including Bench being sick for most of the season.
They just don’t have enough talent and until they get better at developing players year after year – it’s going to be doldrums.
Instead of hiring free agents, they should be trying to hire people away from the Rays or another club that seems to be able to able to draft and develop players.
Yes, there were reasons for the 1971 and 1989 poor seasons. There were reasons for the 2022 debacle. Lots of trades of MLB talent for MiLB prospects. And lots of injuries.
The difference between the 1960, 1971, 1982, 1989 and 2011 vs. the 2022 Reds is that this was a complete tear down. They have no players left who can compete in 2023. Assuming the Reds don’t dive deep in the FA pool this winter they will be lucky to win 60 games next year.
Agree Stock But they may win a lot in 24 or 25 and beyond
I agree but I would not give up on 2023 altogether. Win 10 to 15 more games in 2023 (would be a success).
The Reds in 2023 will not have 1/3 of the talent that the 1961, 1972, 1990, or 2010 teams had. I remember all those teams very well.
“We’re going to come into (2023) in a similar place that we are right now.”, I thought this quote by Krall said it all. That suggests minimal changes to the roster. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. Certainly, sticking with Bell suggests minimal changes and an inclination to utility type players.
Neither Krall nor Bell is MLB caliber GM to manager.
Truer words have never be spoken.
Krall did an excellent job executing the trades this season. I don’t see how you can say that.
Just because it didn’t produced wins to this years team doesn’t mean he was bad.
VaRedsFan I agree. Did any executive in baseball do a better job in June, July, and August than Nick Krall? I doubt it.
Heck, Cashman’s refusal to pay the price for Castillo may cost him his job with the Yankees. The New York Yankees
The trades by Krall look good so far (on paper) but W and L are done on the field. He is not MLB caliber GM.
Oldtimer: Did any executive do a better job this summer than Krall? Who?
The Reds lost 100 games. Krall built the team that lost 100 games. About 25 other GMs did a better job than Krall did. He is simply not MLB caliber.
That’s not what I asked. Did any e!ecutive do a better job this summer… specifically June, July, and August.
Additionally you can be certain the roster in April was most assuredly dictated by ownership… not Krall. You know that.
Your critisizm of NC is 6nfounded and you know that too.
unfounded
Yes. Many other GMs won more games than they lost in the summer of 2022. Minor leaguers are just that.
Hard to take it any way other than how you read it. Anyone who is up for arbitration is probably not tendered if they haven’t capitulated to a contract on team favorable terms by the tender date. Anyone who is a free agent is free to walk. etc
Jim that’s why I’m curious to see how the off season goes. Who is protected on the 40 and who is not signed/ signed as free agents. I think we all will get a better understanding of where they are going. Hopefully.
Lots of utility players and probably a lot of platooning…How many of this years playoff teams utilize that model?
Krall says the 2022 season was “unacceptable.”
In reality, it was very much acceptable to the ownership and front office. How could they have expected anything better than a hundred losses after gutting the roster to the extreme extent that they did?
Nick Krall says 2022 was unacceptable in one breath and then says don’t expect any changes.
Yes, that does seem more than a bit….contradictory. Krall is likely pretty conflicted on….what to do.
There are no public plans for going after any quality free agents that could right the ship.
Some of the free agents signed in the Spring of 2022 helped a lot.
Brandon Drury, obviously.
Donovan Solano, when he was finally able to play.
Ditto Connor Overton.
Others, not so much. The bullpen, as we know it now, is still kind of a mess.
The outfield does not look strong at all, from an offensive viewpoint, going into 2023.
If Votto is not ready out of Spring Training, who plays first?
I know that some of these things will have to be answered in Spring Training, but Krall is, as Jim Walker said, walking a tightrope between reality and the directives of the ownership.
Drury may want to resign with the Reds. His stats here were considerably better than with San Diego.
That trade may have made Drury cheap enough that the Reds would bring him back in 2023.
About the outfield> From the All Star break to the end of the season 3 OF guys posted OPS numbers of .888 or higher with 99 or more PAs each.
All three posted OPS+ for the season of >100, 2 of them in the 115-120 range. One of them needs a RH platoon partner.
Other than that just send those guys out every day until they prove they can’t do the job or someone coming through the system is making serious noise he could do better.
The team has too many problems to create one that isn’t one for now.
I have no hope of the Reds competing in 2023. They have to continue in full rebuild for two years to compete in 2025.
That’s unrealistic, they won’t compete until there is a massive change like a salary cap, or they get bought by Jeff Bezos. They have half of the money to spend as the Yankees and most of the money they have they waste on long term contracts that are under water after 1-2 years.
Mr. Gray: I was new to this internet site this year. I enjoyed your articles and the comments of the Reds fans on this site. It helped make this season a better one for me. Go Reds!
I have the same last name as he does and I AGREE. Doug Gray does a great job on RLN. It’s one of my first Go To websites every morning.
As much as I think Krall is overmatched by his situation, he is young enough to likely know his reputation is being formed right now.
If he imagines getting another GM job after his tenure in Cincinnati, he’s going to have to show some results. Trading for shiny prospects is one thing, getting them to perform at MLB level and win is quite another.
His cred is riding on the ‘potential’ of the Young Turks, but he’s likely wise enough to know that isn’t bankable for long.
I think his double-talk is intended for a wide audience, local and national.
I also foresee him making some last minute panic acquisitions again this offseason as the reality of the projected lineups such as seen in this thread dawn on him.
Someone here brought up: KFarmer batting 3rd and Fraley cleanup is pretty surreal.
Stephenson is coming back from a very serious injury to a complex part of a player’s anatomy. Banking on him to return to potential AS form is as unknown as Antone or Sims coming back.
We’ll see another expensive Pham and another inning nibbling Minor brought in to try and placate fans “that something is being done now!”
Krall is caught between the Castellinis (who have no plan other than to cut $$) and Bell (who has no clue) and fans who could probably suffer through another down year on the way to something better if they were offered something besides double talk.
But that’s nearly an impossible position for anyone to navigate without having a large set of eggs and a stiff spine. That’s not Krall.
Ultimately the Castellini plan has to be to cash out. Everything they do (as opposed to easy public talk) points in that direction. Are they waiting for Big Bob’s rainbow trip? Perhaps one or more of the other four or five teams said to be for sale to move and thus set the market? Or maybe some other personal or business situation we know nothing of?
Agree with TS. However, the Xrays shown on Twitter seemed to indicate a clean break of the clavicle with no damage to moving parts of the shoulder joint itself. Given his age, he will probably be back in full force at some point but it could be deep into 2023 or even longer.
It’s Krall’s job to acquire the shiny new prospects. It’s the coaches job to develop them. We know he acquired highly talented guys. You are right though, he will be judged on how well they pan out
Back of the napkin budget if you bring back Farmer at $5 mil and cessa at 2 mil and the other young guys at minimum is mid$70’s? Is that about right on the math? The article also said ownership told Krall to cut budget the last 2 years and said it could be lower than that this year? Whats Krall to do if Ownership says you’re budget is $80 mil and Moose and Votto take up $42 and no vets x arb 3 cheapies and minimum young guys? If ownership gave KRall a $135 mil budget, they could win 85 games and still NOT compromise the plan in 2024/25.
I lobbied before signing guys for 2-3 years as a bridge could be doable.
1.) 2 year SP at 12mil/ year AAV- Tyler Anderson estimated in that range
2.) 2 year good back vet catcher at 8 mil AAV-Christian Vazquez fits that mold
3.) 3 year OF FA at 10-12 AAV( Joc Pederson or similar)
4.) 2 bullpen guys for 2 years each( many options if you allocate 10 mil/year for 2 guys)
5.) trade a prospect for a young controlled bullpen arm( AJ PuK Oakland who is arb eligible and Oakland wont want to pay him
Those moves would at least target areas of need and wouldn’t cost a ton and dovetail into the 2025 plan as well.
But ownership has told Krall cut budget more . Not sure what the guy is supposed to do.
Do the song and dance routine in Bobby N’s article and keep his Curriculum Vitae current 😉
Is that a one-year contract for Farmer?
If so, plunking down that kind of money may not be a bad move.
Bite the bullet for 2023 instead of Phamming or Minoring away your budet.
Multi-year contract? No way.
He’ll just get in the way of further development of the Young Turks.
Farmer has a big arbitration number coming for the Reds., He made ~3.4 mil this year and the Reds will have to decide to non-tender him and let him go or tender him and be on the hook for probably $5 mil or so. I thought they might let him go and take that money and put it elsewhere. They might just non tender him and pocket the money. The 2 quotes from Krall that were telling.
“we will be a lot younger next year, just not maybe at the beginning of the year.”
“we will look a lot like 2022 starting 2023.”
That sounds like maybe Moose and Farmer come back as place holders but are gone mid-summer when player development/sorting occurs.
It might be me, but 5 million doesn’t sound like a lot to me for a MLB starter.
I like your plan, but I doubt they go that direction.
I got a stamp if you want to mail it to Krall.
As I see it, convincing free agent talent to come to this hot mess will be a big problem. Who wants to play in front of a nearly empty stadium for a front office not committed to winning?
Exactly. The answer is not many. It will be, and should be, the equivalent to the 2022 free agents. Pham, Minor, Drury, Reynolds, etc. Sell them off at the deadline.
Joe Henry, precisely. The Reds had to grossly overpay Moose to sign here. They had to offer Castellanos multiple buy out options to intice him to sign here. Those signings came when the team was fairly decent. Good luck convincing any significant free agent to sign here, now or in the future.
The only free agents who would do that would be maybe, guys who are coming off down years or were injured last year and need to prove something. Krall will be shopping again at the flea market while other teams who have owners who care will be shopping early to get rosters set for next season.
Plan on no top-notch players coming anytime soon.
What the Reds should do this winter:
1. Sign Andrew Benintendi or Ketel Marte. Both are relatively cheap signings in todays structure. The intent would be these players could be traded at the deadline for more prospects if the right deal comes along.
2. If you don’t sign either player in 1. then sign a cheap OF to a 1 or two year contract (Adam Duval, Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin) and trade them in July for whatever you can get.
3. Sign Tyler Stephenson and Hunter Greene to five year contracts with a couple of team options. Do this even if the contracts are not team friendly.
4. Try to sign India and Lodolo to team friendly 5 year contracts with a couple of team options.
5. Teach Jose Barrero how to his a breaking ball.
If the Reds can not sign India this winter they should trade him in July if the can get a prospect haul slightly better than what they got for Castillo.
India isn’t going to draw that kind of water.
Castillo was the prize of the 2022 trading deadline crop.
India is a .260 hitting 2nd baseman coming off an injury ridden season.
I wouldn’t even think of offering Stephenson an extension until he’s fully comeback from his injury.
“Devin Mesoraco”.
I would sign both, Ty and India.
Mez’s injuries was chronic. Ty’s aren’t.
Start a nucleus to build the next team around.
I think Greene and Lodolo extensions could wait until after year 2.
I agree VA.
Ty Steve and India are legit mLb players and young. At some point you have to define who are the leaders out of this morass. The big 6 would appear to be India,Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, and possibly Diaz.
Thats your nucleus. Braves dont have a problem defining who they are going forward.
Agree with HS, no way India draws a haul like Castillo. IMO, a draw more like Mahle or Gray would be the most we’d see, IMO.
I think you can extend Stephenson and India through their arb years and perhaps a bit more. It’d be a solid investment in the future AND a good signal from ownership they are serious. Similarly, follow that by extending Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft after the second years.
My one specific is I’d like to see Romine back up Tyler next year and continue to work with the young starters.
Mesoraco’s injuries were anything but chronic if any medical jive from a baseball message board might tender otherwise.
The guy had a whole string of injuries from shoulder to foot.
Coin toss maybe by Reds. Mesoraco over Grandal.
Tough call. Came up tails.
Folks here are whistling past the graveyard with Stephenson’s injury.
Stephenson was out how often last year?
And so far, how’s that so different than Mesoraco?
I’m not trying to be a downer I this. I love to watch him hit.
I’ve come back from a broken clavicle.
As David Bowie said, it ain’t easy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xKKlTMDqX0
I hope I’m back here by next June eating my words.
Bob Castellini is no longer in the business of signing multi-year contracts. He won’t do it for free agents or players coming up through the Reds system. India and Stephenson will be traded in 2024, if not before.
India’s trade value next July depends upon his performance in the first half of 2023. If he performs as he did in the 2nd half of his rookie year he can absolutely demand a Castillo return since he has 3.5 years of control to Castillo’s 1.5.
Kudos Harry for the Ziggy reference!
Teaching a player to hit a breaking ball is not as easy as it sounds, especially the late break. When the pitch is coming in at your chin and then crosses the plate in the strike zone at the last second, that is tough for any major league hitter. Sometimes guys are never able to make that adjustment, hence the difference between MLB and MiLB players
What the Reds should do with their Farm:
Let the young studs play together at the positions they are projected to be playing in Cincinnati in 2025.
Chattanooga to open the season
C: Vellojin
1B: CES
2B: McLain
3B: Marte
SS: De La Cruz
OF: Cerda, Hinds, Hurtubise
SP: Roa, Boyle, Abbott, Phillips and Benschoter
I understand that several of these players are ready for AAA. But what is the rush. Let them play together, win together and bond. This team should dominate AA.
In late May promote those ready to Louisville. My guess is 8 – 12 will be able to move up and play alongside McGarry, Siani, Williamson and Stoudt. Once promoted this team should dominate AAA.
In September promote 2 – 6 of the Louisville players to Cincinnati with the thought that they open 2024 in the majors.
The 2024 opening day MI should be McLain at 2B and De La Cruz at SS.
Stock.
One, I’d book a stay for a couple weeks in Chattanooga for, say, late May/early June next year with that team.
Two, as for projecting a replacement for India, this is almost an academic exercise and presumes McLain will be an improvement over him, especially given team control.
While I do not think India will be a perennial All Star, I can see him having an All Star season or two. I’m not there with the same assessment of McLain (yet). I also see McLain as a more likely candidate to move to CF.
If India, McLain, and EDLC are each > than Steer, Barrero, and CES, sure, MCLain to 2B, EDLC to SS, and India to 3B.
All in all, this (predicting the lead candidates for the 2024 infield) is an endless exercise. We shall see.
I don’t think I’d start EDLC in AA.
MLB Barrero (SS)
AAA EDLC (SS:CF) McLain (2B:SS)
AA Marte (SS:3B) Torres (2B:SS)
A+ Arroyo (SS)
A Balcazar (SS) Jorge (2B:SS)
ACL Cabrera (SS)
That would be my setup for the top SS’s starting in 23
What I am most concerned with is the possibility of trying to develop young players at the big league level who aren’t ready. Any prospect who makes the big leagues should earn it by performing at an excellent level at Louisville. Rushing players to the bigs is a good way to crush their spirits. I hope I’m not reading too much into this.
Your not! It is a concern of mine as well.
Jose Iglesias had a good year for Colorado on a one-year, $5-million contract. I’d bring him in here at right around that amount and tell him, “Jose, you are our starting shortstop until one of our shortstop prospects at Louisville makes it beyond doubt that he is ready to be called up, due to his performance. If and when that happens, your role will become utility infielder and mentor for the young players.” I don’t know why that wouldn’t be a way to approach the season for about half of the starting positions on the team. Signing Iglesias would allow Farmer to move to platoon starter at many positions against lefties.
Tom, if Farmer is signed in the $5 million range, he’ll be starting nearly every game, as will Moustakas and Votto. Signing Iglesias further complicates matters. Unless Krall man’s up, next year will not be much different than this.
LDS, who did Farmer block from playing?
As soon as Barrero and Steer were brought up, both started almost every game. India and Stephenson started almost every game when healthy. Farmer didn’t play the outfield, so he didn’t block anyone there. No infielders that spent significant time on the bench are projected or expected to ever start for the Reds.
At this point, I agree he’s a decent bench bat and utility player who should probably only start against lefty pitchers. But it really doesn’t matter if he starts if he’s not blocking a prospect.
@Wkuchad, again you misrepresent my statements. Farmer as a platoon player against LH’ers is one thing. Starting every day is another. Adding Iglesias would give Bell 4 guys that would start every game unless injured: Iglesias, Farmer, Votto, and Moustakas. That’s not a winning lineup or defense.
LDS, I don’t agree entirely. Moose was on the bench plenty this year….even when healthy.
Agree 100%.
LDS 100% agree. DB cannot help himself
I share your concern Tom but I dont think anyone believes Siani/EDLC/McLain/CES/or even Williamson wont be in AAA. Krall said they will be younger next year, maybe not as much early on. As Doug mentioned, Spencer Steer is the only player who played a half season in AAA with 70+ games in 300 at bats and did well with an .835 OPS and 15 HR. I dont know why they brought up Barrero when he was struggling at AAA to hit. All that did is create more questions than answers.
I think you’re right-on in terms of who will be (or at least, should be) starting the year at Louisville. Barrero needs to, as well. What he showed, at least at-bat, merits no consideration for a major league roster spot, at least at the outset of the season.
+1000. If there are guys making major position switches it probably would make sense to start them back where they finished 2022 so they wouldn’t be facing a higher level of pitching at the same time they are tying to learn a new position.
I’ve been around long enough that I watched an outfield of Paul Householder, Eddie Milner and Duane Walker in 1982 (the only other Reds team to lose 100-plus games) after Dick Wagner dismantled the Big Red Machine team. None of those guys could hit enough to become regular starters. It’s eerily similar to the young outfield of this current team.
Hey now…Eddie Milner had the 3rd highest OPS on that team behind Cedeno and Driessen. He was tied with Bench and higher than Concepcion and Oester and played good D and could steal you a base. Duane Walker and Householder??? Yikes. For accuracy, the worst OF on that team was none other than the bean-brawler Bucco himself Clint Hurdle. Thanks Tom. I have a headache now.
Ha! Back in the late 80s sometime (can’t recall just when) we had order some stuff…can’t even remember what it was..from Mexico City. The box came stuffed with local newspapers for padding. I pulled them out to look at (I speak Spanish) and got to the sports page and there was a big photo of Paul Householder scoring for the local Mexican League team, Los Diablos Rojos. So he did make it with the Reds / Rojos….sort of.
If I’m not mistaken in my Reds history the opening day starting outfield in 1982 was Clint Hurdle in LF, Ceazar Cedeno in CF, and Paul Householder in RF. None of these had good years. Hurdle and Householder were pretty bad. The guys they replaced? It was George Foster in LF, Dave Collins in CF, and Ken Griffey in RF.
@Melvin — you are almost assuredly correct on the Opening Day lineup. But Hurdle was gone before long, and Cedeno was playing on a bad leg for much or all of the year. I haven’t gone back to confirm this, but my memory tells me that Householder, Milner and Walker got a great deal of, if not the majority of, the OF playing time in ’82 and maybe even ’83.
Tom – Don’t forget Gary Redus.
Milner, Householder, and Walker were much better in 1983 than 1982. Milner went on to a nice MLB career.
Cedeno started in CF in 1982. Milner in LF and Householder in RF. Walker off the bench.
AAA should be either a brief stop for a top prospect, or skipped altogether. It is a level designed for holding replacement level players for when/if the big league club needs them. It is not a development level, nor should it be seen as such. Top prospects should fly past AAA, if they even stop there at all.
So if I was Nick Krall and wanted a future somewhere in baseball. I would go out and hire the best minor league coaches with a history of developing players. Cost there wouldn’t be a factor, because Return on Investment is critical to his future as a GM and to the Reds. He invested in some top prospects (trades) and good draft picks so now is the time to find and get the best coaches out there. This is the area that I’m most concern with at this moment in time. These players have to succeed! I expect the 2023 Reds team will add to the roster but with more Reynolds, Pham, Naquin types. If Bob, Nick and crew have more cost cutting, especially in minor league development and most of these players don’t become solid mlb players, the rebuild will be for nothing and more years of finishing at the bottom.
+1000 on the 1st sentence!
Could not agree more with this post. Spend available funds were they will make the most difference. To me it’s not washed up free agents, it’s in player development personnel whether it be coaching or otherwise. It is imperative to the future of this team and to give one hope.
Thanks Pete! IMO-Bob is not going to give Nick Krall millions to go shopping for expensive free agents, 5 to 10 million – maybe. If that’s the case, good luck shopping! Hiring better player development personnel isn’t going to cost the team that much more but could make a huge difference in a few years.
The most talented coaches in the world can’t turn average players into great players. Maybe hire some magicians instead.
Good luck Shopping! Can’t have a team of Free Agents so if theses minor league players attained in trades and by the draft don’t become solid major league players what is the point of the rebuild? The Reds minor league coaches at all levels need an up grade- IMO
HONESTLY I would rather see old cheap veteran rentals than young players that either aren’t ready or don’t have a future in the big leagues. I just don’t think at this point Aquino, Fraley, Fairchild, Sianni, Friedl, Senzel, Steer, Barrero are major league quality players at this point. maybe I am wrong but I just don’t see it.
maybe the new batch of prospects will be better but for now I would personally rather see the old grisly vets in the field. at least they have had some experience with winning
I would like to see
Votto- 1b
India- 2b
Farmer- ss
Moustakis- 3b
Stephenson -c
Solano- dh
then maybe 3 rental outfielders- Duvall, maybe bring back Pham and Naquin.
then with the young pitching if everyone stays healthy maybe you could finish close to .500.
I just don’t think we are ready for a “youth movement” quite yet. are “youth” just aren’t very good hitters
That IF defense would be horrible. probably worse than this year’s
What? Your hope is for a ceiling of .500 baseball?
Aim higher my dude.
Fighting for the 8th playoff spot (and failing like last year) doesn’t interest me one bit.
Make Reds Great Again.
Exactly, the only thing worse than seeing a team be horrible with youth is for it to be old.
Bringing David Bell back may prove to be an opportunity lost. I hope not but that’s my inclination.
Seriously? Losing a 100 games is better? Sniffing the playoffs is much better than being the laughingstock of MLB.
Frustrating to say the least. But nothing unexpected given how the FO treats the fanbase (or more accurately ignores us).
Who ends up protected on the 40 is the first “tell”. 3M’s position is a bellwether for me. If they choose to protect him fully knowing they will get nearly ZERO VALUE from what they owe him, that speaks volumes. It also means other shuffling has to happen to protect some of the best young players.
I just want to see better baseball and less injuries in 2023. My expectations are already pretty low and it’s only this forum and the rest of y’all that keep me anything close to sane.
That’s my perspective. It would take major capture of lightening in a bottle to make a significant impact. We all know what the odds of that are given what we’ve seen.
I am thankful this is a friendly blog site with no language allowed. In my head saying one thing.
On here my comment is whatever Nick lol…
Humble suggestion: have a guest post by a blogger or fan for another team and have him/ her suggest what to do with the players and prospects. They wouldn’t have the emotional attachment to certain folks, hopefully have a more objective take. Maybe someone who writes for an AL team, maybe one that has recently finished a rebuild? Just an idea.
Geno Suarez with a 1st inning rbi double in the RF corner. He had about zero of those in his last 2 pull-happy years with the Reds. Just letting guys do their own thing or our coaches can’t get thru to these guys?
His second hit was to RF as well. Like the old Geno.
He has probably finally recovered from his injury he had when he was with the Reds is my guess.
Doug said: And if the plan is to simply not actually try to compete right now, then just say that. Or at the very least don’t say the expectation every year is to make the playoffs, win a World Series.
A year ago, the Orioles lost 110 games. They were on the verge of making the playoffs this year. They didn’t add big time free agents.
So yes, he can say that.
IMO – the answer to the question posed in the title is Yes.
The plan is clearly to build the core of this team through the farm system.
I expect their approach to FA this offseason – where they will sign veterans who get passed over in the early part of FA to supplement the roster.
But I don’t expect urgent intervention to win just in ’23.
Like it or not – I expect a path like this…
2023 – 65 – 75 wins (positive regression in injury luck but a step back in SP
2024 – 75-85 wins – if things break right a young team that could compete for a playoff spot – ala the 22 Orioles. Payroll frees up – better short term FA to supplement the young guys.
2025 – 2027 – 85-95 wins – a nice run with hard decisions again looming financially as the young core approaches Arb and then FA
If they stick to this plan I will be happy with having a good window.
I follwo the NBA as well, if you commit to a rebuild, you need to stick to the plan.
Get as much overlap from your players prime years as possible.
and 85-96 in 25, 26, 27
Oops – ignore the last sentence…crappy editing!
Yes! A plan has been put in place. Stick to it. No need to go out and try to build a team thru free agency. Add free agents when on the cusp of competing.
The Reds have shown that they will spend money when a window is opening.
Cardinals just imploded in the 9th.
It’s glorious!
In front of the hometown crowd no less 😀
+100000
Epic post season meltdown.
Just watched the top of the 9th. Stupendous collapse by the WLB’s. Now let’s see if Philly can get just one more out.
Phillies just made post-season history with most runs in last inning to win a game. Stinks it had to come against the cards tho and Molina made the last out as the tying run.
Bwahahahahaha!!
That makes my day.
Cardinal implosion in the 9th.
Robby Thompson.. he has done wonders
For phillies
I don’t have an Enquirer sub, so I can’t read the whole article, but I didn’t see a quote that said they were cutting back payroll. I read it as guys like Barrero, Steer, and Siani will be given every chance to stay on the team in 23. Unless there was another quote that contradicts this, I’m still of the belief that they spend 110M in 23. To be clear that is probably a 70 something winning team, not a WS bound team.
@ MBS. No direct quotes from Krall on payroll. Bobby Nightengale wrote this though in the article and obviously given off the record notes but not quotes.
“Bob Castellini’s ownership group mandated a lower payroll for the last 2 off-seasons and it’ll likely drop even further this winter.”
They did have deferred money from Griffey still and Castellanos and dead money from Akiyama and Moose still to come plus Votto and Moose buyouts at $11 million this time next year.
Maybe Krall is tired of having one arm tied behind his back with awful contracts. Arroyo got a ton as well.
Thanks @old, I read that quote as an observation and projection by Bobby, not an organizational inside scoop. If it is indeed true, we are looking at a long year. The highlights will just be youth developing, and not a whole lot of winning. I am excited to see the arrival of EDLC, and McGarry at some point, and probably CES, and maybe McLain a bit later in 23. Even if these young players pan out over the next few years, this team will still need to spend real money to be a real winner.
@mbs
I agree completely
Not happening in 2023 though but they cant really win unless Bob opens the floodgates and thats a long shot even if he did at best
Im glad krall is sticking with the rebuild. A year from now though payroll better align with winning once the bad contracts are gone
A lot of people on here seem to think they shouldn’t spend money this year because they won’t be good enough. I don’t believe Bob will reinvest that saved money into future payroll. I like sticking to the rebuild, but he really should supplement the roster with all funds available.
Doug,
Maybe you know, has Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, and or Jeff Brantley expressed a interest in coaching?
Yes, a few of my favorite players lol.
Just from listening to him in the booth, I’m not sure I’d want Larkin.
I think Larkin would be a complete disaster. I am not sure why everyone wants him.
I believe Eric The Red has already been a “special instructor”. I seriously doubt Cowboy wants to put up with the politics, especially after this year. I used to want Larkin but now … not so much.
Good Lord no. How about raiding Tampa and Atlanta systems for coaching etc. Franchises with a history of winning! The problem has been I think it’s promoting from within it’s almost incestuous and really needs to stop.
Meanwhile, Luis has the Blue Jays eating out of his hand.
Castillo pitching to contact…only 2 K’s
What a concept!!!
As I say that, he K’s the side in the 7th. Looked like he emptied the tank there. He might be done.
At least he’s getting to experience something that he never would with the Reds, not to mention a nice raise.
Watching the Dirty Birds pull a Red (rabbit) out of the hat and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just made my day!
I smiled lol
I fully expect the Reds to be marginal at best next year. They’re not going anywhere.
2024 is when they’d better have a plan to win. No more Votto & Moose contracts & I would hope a new Manager with tons of $$$ to spend.
I want an owner who has enough money to pay players! I’m so sick of owners who buy this team and barely make just a little more than the payroll they dish out every year.
The Seattle Redlegs look promising. Suarez 2-4 2 RBI and Castillo 7.3 innings 0 R today
My guess is that the Reds would have to overpay for any sort of multiyear deal for a free agent heading into 2023. I mean, what player with any MLB talent would willingly sign up for what the Reds have become for multiple years? I can’t see anyone doing that unless they were coming off of a disappointing year/injury and even then only wanting a one year contract in order to quickly move on to greener pastures. Sad days for Reds fans, that’s for sure.
I’ve grown to appreciate the Reds Front Office’s deep and unwavering commitment to creating complete and total apathy. They didn’t even wait a day after this miserable to season to make sure I knew not to even bother next year. Chef’s kiss.
I think the biggest missed point is MONEY. That’s what it’s all about in the end. You can say the GM sucks or the manager sucks or this player sucks, but in the end it is about how much money the owners want to make. “Bob Castellini’s ownership group mandated a lower payroll”. I think that the minority owners want some more return on investment too. That’s where the “must align our payroll to our resources” comes into play. It’s not about the players, the fans, Cincinnati or anything else but the MONEY and greed.
That’s an easy argument to make as a fan. It’s not your money being spent. If course it is about money and the owners, which is more than just Castellini expect a return on their investment. Calling it greed is unfair. At least from what is publicly available they aren’t making a huge profit. You can’t expect a business owner to lose money because it makes the customers feel better.
Teams like the Cardinals and Indians show a small market team can succeed, so the ownership is not without blame, but I don’t think greed is the problem. Poor decisions are the problem
Yep, maybe greed is giving them too much credit. Call it what it is, incompetence. They haven’t put a winner on the field; and, they can’t convince would be fans and followers they have a plan they can follow through to do so in a reasonable time frame.
True, so true. Like the old axiom, follow the money.
To be fair, the focus of 2023 should not be on competing. It should be on letting the kids play and finding out who can hack it and who can’t.
That said, I still expect the Reds to have a better record in 2023 than they did in 2022. The Big 3 of Lodolo, Greene, and Ashcraft will be older and more experienced, and should be ready to collectively take the next step forward. Plus, a ton of injured pitching talent will be returning.
At some point in 2023, I want to see a starting lineup like this:
CF EDLC
2B India
C Stephenson
3B Encarnacion-Strand
LF Fraley
RF Fairchild
SS Barrero
1B Votto
DH Moose
The Reds desperately need to address the issue of Votto having no successor at 1B. But still, I’d much rather see this lineup out there every day than some journeymen like Tommy Pham out there eating up ABs. This lineup probably isn’t good enough to win in 2023, but they will be gaining valuable experience and showing the Reds what the Votto/Moose money needs to be spent on to compete in 2024.
Oh, and I want to see Steer get some more ABs too.
Pre 22 there was no successor at 1B. Now we have McGarry in AAA, and CES in AA, and either could become the future 1B.
The reds will not be signing any players to multi year contracts. The young players in the farm system and those who finished the year with the reds will be given every opportunity to succeed. A assessment will be made after 2023 when Moose and Votto are off the books to determine if through player development they are a signing or two a way from competing. This is a REBUILD. They will not be contending next year or 2024. The players they obtained need to step forward and they need the opportunity to do that.
If you intend to watch the team next year focus on the big 3 in the pitching staff taking a step forward, hope Barrera can turn it around at SS, TS and India build on their starts and the kids in minor leagues develop. Lots of moving pieces in the process but signing FA’s is not part of the process at this time. The youngsters need playing time. For me it will be interesting to see which players step up. If the reds do spend money My opinion is it will be to buy FA years away from young players who are showing some success.
While I have enjoyed watching Votto play, any at bat he gets is a wasted opportunity for a young player. Same as Farmer and Moose. If we are rebuilding commit to it. Do Joey a favor while in what looks like the end of his very good career trade him or grant him his release to sign with a contender. Moose should be let go and Farmer as well. Farmer may have some value that he can cash in on with another team. He is standing in the way of the rebuild here. Farmer has been a nice player and has exceeded my expectations from when he was obtained and under different circumstances I would love to keep him a red but he is not essential for the reds to be successful longterm.
Exactly JimT. Fans of rebuilding teams need to focus on something besides win-loss record. You’ll want to slit your wrist if you do.
Absolutely. I don’t mind this rebuild. This is why I’m interested only in who is on the 40 man, who gets signed in off season and who is on opening day roster. Get rid of the old guys and let the youngsters develop. If they lose a 100 with the young guys playing and developing then so be it. I’m more interested in watching them play and getting better than watching Mike Minor play. Patience. Great post Jim t. Best one of the day.
Votto isn’t going anywhere.
Thanks Bobby Boy for nothing you get what you pay for. Bringing back lapdog Bell will really but butts in the seats. Sell the team Bob and leave. You did not bring championship baseball back to Cincinnati you brought back garbage. Attendance will keep going down and interest in the Reds will be an afterthought. Thanks Bob your miserable organization
I’m not sure why it is rather shattering news that the Reds won’t be very good for a few years. Go back and look at won-loss records for teams like the Astros, mariners, Rays and Padres a decade ago.
When teams commit to rebuilds, it’s not realistic to think in terms of win-loss record. It’s about getting as many prospects as possible and giving them opportunity and development.
Now I’m not sure Bell is up to the task but I think we have to at least give DJ more time as overall pitching coordinator. He just got the gig last year.
Now we need to adjust our hitting development and, in my opinion, our winning development in the minors. It is a skill that also needs development.
Get ready for some bad won-loss records. Be content with seeing some new young players make the big leagues and hope they figure out how to grow into an above average major league player in 2 to 3 years. No one should expect playoffs until then.
Agreed. Astros losses from 2011-14 (106,107,111,92)
Astros wins from 2017-19 2021-2022 (101,103,107,95,106)
They need to be really bad for more than a year to pull off this strategy
The Reds are not committed to any re-build. They are committed to slashing payroll. There is a difference.
When commenters here suggest that The Castellinis and Nick Krall have some sort of master plan to be a build a championship, I just laugh.
Exactly, with Krall apparently suggesting further payroll cuts, the Reds aren’t resting on their laurels, they are going for the worst team in baseball. And they are close already.
one can easily be displeased with the plan, but the trades this year suggest that there is one. instead of trading for mediocre and cheap major league guys they traded for excellent prospects. yes; ownership is cheap and, yes, the rebuild may fail for lack of willingness to acquire a good free agent or two or three to augment the young guys, but the plan is clearly a rebuild.
I would agree with @greenmtred, if not for the fact that Krall is signaling additional payroll cuts according to reports. Short of Votto & Moose, that will be hard to do. Could be dumping Farmer, letting Solano go, etc. Bu, the rebuild, at this moment, sounds more like a continuation of the salary dump.
Full speed ahead with a rebuild. The Reds will compete in 2025. I am confident of it. I do like Krall as the GM at this point. I would have fired Bell, but it does not change my opinion that better things are coming.
Agree. When a team does a severe payroll dump, that put’s them into a default position of looking like a rebuild. What the Reds do in the next several years will indicate whether they have a coherent plan they are following.
that’s right, Jim: the next few years will be telling. i think, as i said, that the acquisition of so much young talent indicates that it’s a rebuild. whether it is successful or not is what will be determined.
Why are so many of you down on Kyle Farmer? He has been the only bright spot other than the rookie pitchers for 2 years now.
He plays everyday, is consistant, (while not elite), both at the plate, and wherever you put him on defense.
I would say he is the MVP of the 2022 team.
Age primarily and if it would make sense, Bell will not bench him for younger players.
Age, cost, below average utility man, used by Bell as an elite starter. Is he blocking anyone? Maybe only Moose at this point. But he’s not part of the future, any more than Moose or Votto. Votto deserves his farewell tour. He doesn’t deserve to play every day. And Moose? He deserves to be DFA’d and to take his chances on the open market.
Farmer is very good versus LH pitching and not very good vs RH pitching. Unfortunately for the Reds and him, ~70% of pitchers are RH; and, his overall offense grades out at 90% of league average as an everyday player.
His defensive range and performance at SS have clearly deteriorated. At 3B, he appears to lack the quick twitch response to batted balls required to be effective.
Farmer could be useful as a platoon partner for Fraley (LF) or Votto (1B). However, will the Reds want to pay the estimated $5M arbitration influenced salary for him?
Let the prospects develop in minors, I am fine with signing a few cheap solid veterans coming off a bad year to 1 yr deals and hoping they have a good solid first half then trade them for at least a low level “lottery ticket” prospects.
Also am actually expecting a minor bounce back ( .750 to .800 OPS) from Votto for his final year
Joekr, You are absolutely correct. It amazes me that people want to let Farmer go and play a guy who strikes out (get this) 46% of his at bats. Kyle is a decent MLB player. The problem is, he is not supposed to be your best player.
More follow up from Krall with Charlie Goldschmidt.Its worth a read.
1.) they will not rush young players regardless of need at the MLB level. He cited EDLC and only playing 2 months above A ball. He did suggest the AAA team will be good but they won’t bring up players unless they are ready.
2.) He cited advanced metrics and outs above average amongst others saying improvement has to come internally with better hitting, base-running and infield defense. Those are things Reds can control and Reds finished near the bottom in all 3 and that has to improve.
3.) Nick Senzel is to be determined as an OF or utility Infielder
4.) India will bat lead off but sounds like no one is guaranteed anything and there will be competition for playing time. He wants improvement from India,Senzel,Barrero,Steer, and Fraley, noting Fraley had a solid year. Moose will compete too for those infield spots. Sigh….
5.) He said by the end of next season the Reds roster will be much younger and that’s the recipe for sustainable success with developing players from the minors to the big leagues.
6.) there’s no direct quotes but Goldschmidt said Stephenson will be the catcher next but could move to 1b or DH down the road.
Good stuff. Can/ will Krall hold the line if PhilC turns up the heat for EDLC et al to put butts in seats as attendance falters watching a 4A team?
Rather obvious that he will not. One would think he’d work harder to produce a competitive team, unload non-performers, e.g., Moose, dump Bell & DJ, etc. and establish some credibility in the business. Otherwise, where does he go when the Reds gig ends, which it will?
Translation: Expect to lose 90-100 games again this year. Expect a lower payroll. And don’t expect that to change for the foreseeable future.
Other cities our size with teams are competitive, so the “small market” BS just doesn’t wash with me. Look no farther than the WLB’s. Or the Guardians who are looking to punch their tickets to the next round today. It’s about the mindset of the ownership from where I sit. Old Marge was a wretched person, but she wanted to win.
All most of us can hope for in 2023 is that they don’t rush the young prospects and “ruin them” in some feeble attempt to up the attendance figure. Only winning makes that happen.
Also, this isn’t Miami who bought/inherited a team. This is Cincinnati who essentially “birthed” a team right at the start of things. Our blessed “C-Suite” is either oblivious to that fact or they just don’t care. I suspect it’s the latter.
Sell the team, Bob!
Strong statement Mark. I thank you and concur right down the line.
I calls ’em as I sees ’em.
Seriously, when I walk mornings and evenings, I have some time to think about this stuff. This is as good a place as any to let it fly.
The two year pandemic was tough for all ML teams, especially the Reds. A team that had competed until the last month of 2021 was broken up because of the need to shed salary. Now the Reds are into a year or two hiatus to wait for young talent to mature and there’s no guarantee that that will produce a winner down the road. The current managing ownership, the Castellini’s, do not seem to have the money to augment, especially offensively, the young talent now in the farm system. So we’re in another rebuild. I think the inability to keep Castellano, an offensive leader the Red’s have long needed, is the key to this deflating season along with a poor bullpen. Until managing ownership is fiscally strengthened, the Reds will have a tough time to compete.
I respect your opinion and agree the past couple of years have been challenging for multiple reasons (pandemic included). I’m just saying I’m not buying the “small market” BS anymore from our “C-Suite”. Other teams in similar markets consistently perform better and the apparent attitude of their FO’s seems to be bent toward winning. If the C’s just can’t see a way to do that, they should sell the team. Period.
As for Nick C … he was walking regardless. We offered him a significant raise and he turned it down (qualifying offer).
Cleveland, younger and cheaper than the Reds, advances to next round. Small market is a canard. They can afford to compete. Either they don’t want to or they don’t know how.
Probably it will never be possible for our favorite team, a much smaller city and metro than Philadelphia or other ‘big’ city/metros, to out-bid for an offensive leader like Nick C. was last year. I felt like Nick was comfortable playing for the Reds and he was an all-star for the first time. So be it; it’s in the past. The reality, ofcourse, in pro sports is that money talks.
Cleveland also has a much better field manager in Terry Francona, and a much better coaching staff. Francona is frankly one of the best managers in baseball. He connects with his players and they both like him and respect him. Some years ago, my BiL was doing bus driving in Cincy, and drove the bus from the hotel to GABP carrying the Indians (now the Guardians…how absurd). He remarked what a great bunch of guys they were, very friendly and happy group. My BiL also play minor league baseball a long time ago.
I would also estimate that their system (front office to lowest minor league team) has a better overall concept in rating their young players, and teaching or preparing them to play in the majors.
The Reds organization overall seems disorganized and not consistent or systematic in how they do things.
@MM, remember the QO was administrative. They weren’t really interested in retaining Castellanos. They talked to neither his agent nor Cadtellanos. The Reds could easily have afforded him. They didn’t want to.
Good managing is underrated.
good managing is hard to quantify, and the perception of it is heavily influenced by the quality of the players.
Scott Boras’ on the record quotes after Castellanos signed with Philles very much put into question the narrative that Castellanos would not have returned to the Reds.
Boras was quoted in “The Athletic” giving high marks to Nick Krall for how he handled the situation. Boras also said he left phone messages for Bob Castellini indicating he and Castellanos were very interested in talking about NC coming back to the Reds and never heard back either way from Bob C.
It isn’t too much of a leap to infer from these comments that Krall and Boras/ Castellanos were close or even in tentative agreement on at least an amount and possible framework but Krall could not get his ownership on board.
As tough as it sounds, if this team can’t get better production from the current roster, this could be a long 2023 and 2024. Don’t know the owner’s intentions, but it’s not wise to spend big when virtually every one of the 8 spots is in serious contention among borderline MLB wannabees.
On an unrelated note, the Rays-Cleveland game has now exceeded the Red’s futility record by going scoreless into the 14th. Extremely boring game, nothing like the David Bell delayed double steal with two outs to liven up the action.
Good to see the Guardians move forward to face the Yanks. Some teams should be studying how Cleveland is doing it with the youngest team in the majors.
At least part of it has to be the mindset and approach of the ownership. They are consistently toward the top of their division, they trade away players who will break the bank, and their market isn’t much different.
All just my opinion and observation, but I’m not alone on that point here or elsewhere.
Go, Go, Guardians!!
Oscar Gonzalez rookie wins it
Reds need to hire Guardians asst hitting coach who mentored Gonzalez. He said power will come. Learn to hit first. Victor Rodriguez mentored Gonzalez on how to hit first and trust his power. It worked.
Guardians being compared toRoyals 2014-15 with putthe ball in play, defense, speed, and bullpen. Guardians dont have power but neither did the Royals till the post-season. Guardians did the same .
OS….The blueprint is there on how to compete without spending.
1. Great Bullpen (The most important ingredient to me)
2. Contact hitting. (low strikeouts)
3. Defense and speed.
4. Competent manager (I really wanted Francona to replace Dusty)
Mariners trying to cap off a miracle comeback win tonight.
Signed, Sealed, Delivered!!
Happy for the boys to get a chance to go deeper into October. Hope The Fonz gets healed up and is able to play.
What a game!
Super happy for the Mariners (and Mariner fans). That’s been a long-suffering fan base as well.
Reds will face a lot tougher schedule next season with the new more balanced schedule going into effect in 2023. Won’t get the Pirates for 19 games.
The Reds are a rudderless ship that is held hostage by a Castellini/Williams ownership group that wants to count nickels instead of winning games. They have made a once proud franchise one of the laughingstock organizations in all of professional sports…
Very sad, there is no future with this ownership group best we can do is to Boycott the ballpark, send plane fly overs embarrassing the organization and continuing to burn Reds items outside the ballpark…
yes this is a great point. you go to an nba type schedule you will get nba type win totals. the Houston Rockets would have won 40 games if they were in baseball and the orlando magic would have won 42. i do think you will see win totals really dwindle for our reds and other basement dwellers very quickly. the ’62 mets may be off the hook in the coming years
Phillies were not happy with their manager, so they fired Girardi. The team takes off, and has now advanced in the playoffs.
Accountability.
I call it a managemnet shakeup. Just what didn’t happen with the Reds in May 2022 after the dismal start. Winning, incontrast to Philly, not a priority.
Or even before May of 2022, in September of 2021 when Bell was extended in the midst of a collapse from odds a month earlier strongly favoring the Reds to make the postseason.
How many other players, coaches and support people have to lose their jobs before the spotlight illuminates David Bell?
end of an era for St. louis. Gives me hope that the reds will be competitive again one day. they may never be as good as they were in the 70’s or even 90’s but they will one day be able to compete in the division. there is no one to replace guys like Puljos and Molina. as more and more of the aging stars retire there will be a “reset” in mlb. Just doesn’t seem like the young position players coming up have very good hit tools. Just look at our young prospects this year. basically overmatched by even average pitching. I really think we are headed into an extreme “dead ball” era. may not be fun baseball but I think the reds will at least be able to compete again one day
I would bet everything I own that the Cardinals will be in the playoffs before the Reds.
Rednat, I have no idea how much you follow baseball. I hope you love and enjoy it like I do. But let me ease your troubled mind a little. E Jimanez, A Gimenex, Joan Moncada, O Gonzalex, L Arraez, Adley Rutchman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, A Kirk, G Moreno, Dante Bichette, Vlad G, W Franco R Devers, O Peraza, J Pena, Y Alvarez, K Tucker. That is about 5 minutes of looking at only AL teams. No Soto, Tatis Harris jr, Acuna etc. If you only pay attention to the Reds, I unserstand your angst. But, you really need to stop and smell the scent of roses on all of these young stars.
Admittedly I don’t follow baseball as much any more and I don’t understand the advanced stats. All I know is the league batting average this year was .243. Nobody had double digits in triples.only 6 players had 30 stolen bases this year. Team offenses are in decline and getting worse. If that continues it will help teams like the reds in a weird way
IF…the Reds (or some mythical thinking person in their organization) recognizes these facts and actually thinks about changing the way that they play.
There might be a larger, meta – type reason these things you noticed are happening.
Pitchers throwing harder (all up and down the staff) causing lower, overall batting averages, better defenses (more batted-balls-in-play fielded), and the emphasis on hitting Home runs (bat angle, launch angle, the rest of this). All these guys upper-cutting does not always lead to consistent contact.
Players are “bigger” now, and while a guy can have good outfield speed, stealing bases requires a lot of “twitch” reflex sprinting speed.
Even though the league batting average is .243, and the other things you mentioned are also true, Runs per game are actually higher than at any point in the 60s through the 80s. The only times in history that runs per game were higher than they are now is before World War 2, and during the steroid era. So while batting averages are down, scoring is up. When they ban the shift next year, we could have all time records in runs scored.
The Reds are always looking at the future. Success is always just around the corner. The FO that says losing is unacceptable does all it can to guarantee losing. That’s because ownership believes it’s easier and cheaper to lose. There’s no plan to improve and even if miraculously this franchise were to stumble upon some good players they would be traded away. That’s the Reds way.
What would there be to look forward to if tomorrow ever really arrived? 😉
I understand the frustration, but you are conveniently leaving out 2010-12 where the extended many of their stars and traded for others. When that run ended they failed miserably at rebuilding because they held onto players.
Up until now there has not seemed to be an actual plan. Now it seems to me there is a plan, which is trade away everyone who can return more than a bag of balls, stock up on prospects, and hope some of them work out. Once that sorting is complete there should be money for free agents and maybe even excess prospects who can be traded for gaps in the lineup. It still might result in failure, but it is a plan
Bill, that is the plan you want to see. It is not a plan that has been articulated but Nick Krall or anyone else at the Red’s front office.
If you want to know what the plan is look at their actions. They have traded everyone who has a contract north of $5 Million dollars.
They were competing last season and instead of adding players to help that team win, they traded their starting third basemen, left fielder and their entire pitching staff. Why in the world do you believe if they get close again, they would add players??
I have no clue what your point is. I stated the plan was trade away everyone they could. Your argument is that I am wrong because the plan is to trade anyone who makes more than $5 million. They have been very clear what the plan is. Minus putting out a press release stating they are tanking, they have made the plan clear. They aren’t going to officially say that unless they want a complaint filed by the player’s association
You can say they were competing the season before, but they still failed to make the playoffs. That team was going to be minus Castellanos and a year older. Bob wasn’t giving them anymore money to improve the team.
No one is happy that the team is a dumpster fire, but what they were doing wasn’t working. Now you are upset they are doing something different.
So, then you acknowledge the Reds have not articulated a plan? Yet, are quite clear they will continue to cut salary. Wonder why they haven’t mention a plan for winning that you seem to have privy to?
You don’t have to go by what the front office says , go by what it has done. What have they done in the past two years to show you they have a plan? They have done nothing but slash payroll.
The Reds made the play-offs in 2020 and would have made the play-offs in 2021, had they not traded their closer and failed to acquire a real shortstop. If they were close in 2021 and failed to add players needed to get them over the top, why do you think they will in 2024, 2025 or whenever your little fantasy kicks in?
The Reds count on folks like you to fill their coffers, while fielding a 100 lost team. Good luck with Team Phil, you’re going to need it.
Have you considered counseling? You seem to have some serious anger issues and I am worried about you. This isn’t that serious, some millionaires losing baseball games shouldn’t impact your life. If it does I suggest you look at the Dodgers or the Yankees. You would be much happier and not so stressed out. I think it would drastically improve your quality of life
Red’s managing ownership did make some good moves during the period 2010-2012. But, after losing to the Giants in the 2012 playoffs it was evident the aging Scott Rollen was not the right handed hitter the Reds needed, and this offensive deficency continued until Nick Castellanos arrived in 2020 and he led the offense in 2021. The offer, which was a good one, to Castellanos, I believe, was in the original contract. But, the Reds made a poor to non-existent further effort to resign him and the dismal season is a result of disbanding the offensive core plus two mature good pitchers of a potentially competitive team.
The last ten years takes away anything the Reds did in 2010-2012. And there is no plan for success moving forward. This same discussion will be taking place this time next year. And the year after that. And the next year.
Two lower-seeded teams move on in just 2 games played (though that marathon game was a killer). Cleveland’s Guardrails do what they do with what they have at home in the Jake and move on. I’d love to see the Friars and Metropolitans bash each other to smithereens for about 20 innings today.
Fun to casually follow this first round and watch some top-flight ball in packed parks. Makes me dream of a time when we’ll see that again …
Plus, I’m glad to see the Cardinals out of the playoffs.
Yes and no on the Cards crashing and burning for me.
Part of me wanted to see a deep run by them because I thought it was something to possibly turn the heat up on the Reds ownership.
And yet, Jim, the lesson that can be learned is that even nailing down your division and getting to play the first round at home doesn’t count for squat. The WLB’s ran into the buzzsaw that is the Phillies. The same Phillies who spent like a drunken sailor and had to course correct by canning one of the highest profile managers. They dealt with injuries and under-performing stars. Yet, they are moving on to the next round.
Even if the WLB’s won it all, our illustrious “C-Suite” wouldn’t learn any of their lessons. As I stated earlier, it’s an attitude that wants to win … it’s committed to winning. We don’t have it under the current regime.
I’m all for any heat that can be directed toward Red’s managing ownership that gets them into winning mode. Maybe the Brewers can get that done.
The Reds owe two players way past their primes $54m between 2022 salaries and 2023 buyouts. This team has the worst attendance in 40 years of the franchise. It’s a team that needs fans to show up but Phil C killed that chance in opening day. They have a massive amount of salary tied up with two players who likely won’t contribute next year (this isn’t a knock on Votto – totally get his contract – Moose, however…). They don’t have attendance revenue. Nick Krall has made it clear they will spend money based on the assumption fans are not returning to the stands. All the eggs are in the player development basket. Going for it in 2020 and getting hit with a pandemic has killed this team. It might be a long time before the team recovers.
I’m surprised the Red’s drew almost 1million 400 thousand to GABP this past season. The fanbase is there. It has to be revitalized from the top down.
Yep, if you build it, they will come (Field of Dreams). Remember, nightmares are dreams too. Castellini wants the old model: if you come, we will build it. For the last 17 years, that appears to be disingenuous, at best. Hey, but where you going to go?
Folks are just waiting for a winner to give them a reason to hop into their cars and come rolling in on i75 as they did as kids, now with their kids and grandkids.
I think a nice fit to the CIN 2023 bullpen is free agent Matt Strahm. Decent skills and he won’t break the bank.
The mix would then include Antone, Diaz, Sanmartin, Santillan, Cruz, Kuhnel, Moreta, Sims, Overton, Farmer and Law and maybe Dowdy.
Yep, if you build it, they will come (Field of Dreams). Remember, nightmares are dreams too. Castellini wants the old model: if you come, we will build it. For the last 17 years, that appears to be disingenuous, at best. Hey, but where you going to go?
Yes, if you build it, they will come (Field of Dreams). Remember, nightmares are dreams too. Castellini wants the old model: if you come, we will build it. For the last 17 years, that appears to be disingenuous, at best. Hey, but where you going to go?
We really need edit capability. Or we need to stop screwing up as frequently as a Reds baserunner. One of the two.
The only serviceable SP to look at this off season (outside of a trade) is Johnny Cueto. This allows Williamson to work on his control at AAA. It gives time for Stoudt to prove if he is an SP or an RP. Unless we have any other injuries to our SP’s, the rest of the signings should consist of minor league contracts with invites to ST. Rotation at the MLB level would consist of Cueto, Greene, Ashcraft, Lodolo and Cessa in no particular order. Dunn, Williamson and Stoudt could slot at AAA. Assuming Overton transitions to the bullpen to address his injuries. Cueto or Cessa gets pushed by Williamson at some point. Phillips and Roa knocking on the door while Boyle likely transitions to the pen at some point.
Cueto is 37 by ST. He had a decent year last year. How cheap do you think he’ll be? More than Bob is willing to spend?
There is a story comparing him to Greinke and CIN cannot afford Greinke-type dollars, so Cueto’s agent would have to be realistic.
Johnny Cueto could stabilize the Reds young starting pitching and the struggling bullpen.
A very nice free agent acquisition for CIN is Wil Myers. He can play RF and 1B. He can also help an anemic offense. If you get him for a 1-2 year deal with a team friendly option in Year 2-3, you buy time for Rece Hinds. I would not expect Myers to cost that much.
Nice affordable free agent acquisitions for this winter:
Cueto
Strahm
Casali
Myers
Could probably use one more OF.
Two of those are likely not affordable, and it’s possible none are.
Agree completely, and on the flip…why would these guys want to sign in Cincinnati?
Probably more fruitful to look at impending non tenders of other teams, they are younger and likely to sign for cheap; rebuild their career at GABP. How about Victor Robles for example?
Cueto is the likeliest simply due to age – he’ll take the highest bidder and he has a connection here. That said, would the Reds be the highest bidder (hint – no)?
Casali perhaps, but if he’s lost in the shuffle in Seattle, and his value has decreased quite a bit recently – aging catchers not usually a good idea.
The other two – too $$$ and as MadMike notes – why?
@optimist> But if the Reds are going to return an old friend as back up catcher, please let it be Casali instead of Barnhart. The top Reds pitchers of the last several years, apart from Miley, all seemed to work better with Casali,specifically talking Bauer, Gray and Castillo here.
This said, probably best to bring back neither. Barnhart was a total mess with the Tigers. Casali has dropped off and will be 34 years old on 2023 which is very old for a catcher.
To help the bullpen I see Chapman could be available. LOL
Must have forgotten to set his alarm clock! What a head case 🙂
No chance the Reds will spend to compete for 2023 as they still owe Votto and Moustakas tons of $$$ nest year. Might as well accept this fact and that the target date for being competitive is 2024 at the earliest. $54M is owed to both of them combined in 2023 including 2024 buyouts which are pretty much guaranteed to be exercised.
Kudos to the Friars for sending the Metros to their offseason. I think they have a better chance at topping the Trolley Dodgers, frankly.
Oh, and for those who still wistfully pine for the days of Aroldis Chapman (I still say he’s a major headcase) … this little gem from MLBTR:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/aroldis-chapman-to-be-left-off-yankees-alds-roster-after-skipping-team-workout.html
Jibe