You have made it to the final series of 2022, Reds fans.

The Cincinnati Reds (60-99) are on the verge of their first 100-loss season in 40 years. The Reds would need a sweep against the Chicago Cubs (73-86) to avoid it. The two teams switch from Wrigley Field in Chicago to the beautiful Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati tonight at 6:40 PM.

The Cubs are playing their best baseball of the year by far, as they are 11-1 in their last 12 games. Meanwhile, the Reds have lost 6 straight games, and they are 4-19 in their last 23 games.

Starting Pitchers


Hunter Greene will look to finish off his rookie campaign strong. He really turned his season around after his first 10 starts:

First 10 starts: 6.19 ERA, 6.07 FIP, 12.0 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 2.8 HR/9
Last 13 starts: 3.64 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 11.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

Greene has been even more impressive recently. Over his last 4 starts, he has a 0.78 ERA and 1.77 FIP in 23.0 IP with 37 K, 6 BB and just 1 HR allowed.

Greene has struggled in 2 starts against the Cubs this season with an 8.00 ERA, but he has yet to face them in the 2nd half.


You might remember Hayden Wesneski from when he threw 5.0 scoreless innings in relief of Wade Miley against the Reds in his MLB debut. The Cubs #12 ranked prospect (MLB Pipeline) has been incredible for the Cubs in his September call-up. The Cubs acquired Wesneski from the Yankees at the trade deadline for reliever Scott Effross. The trade is looking very good for the Cubs so far. Let’s hope the Reds can at least spoil the end of his season tonight.

Starting Lineups

Jake Fraley is hitting .288/.376/.534 with 5 home runs in September/October.


Seiya Suzuki is hitting .333/.403/.583 with a 177 wRC+ in 67 PA in September/October.

2023 MLB Draft Positioning

The Reds are currently tied with the Pirates for the third worst record in MLB. For the 2023 draft, MLB will be implementing a draft lottery to determine the order. The Reds would have the highest odds should they fall into the worst three records in MLB. The Reds do however “lose” the tie-breaker to the Pirates because the Reds had a better record in 2021. The Pirates finish off the season with three games at home against the Cardinals, who have nothing left to play for. The Reds are guaranteed to finish with either the 3rd or 4th worst record in MLB.

-How the odds work explained by Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline.

Tankathon current MLB Draft Lottery Odds

Conclusion

Tonight will be the last time to watch Hunter Greene pitch for the Reds this season. It’s been a tough season and a brutal September for our beloved Redlegs, but I encourage you tonight to just sit back, relax and watch Hunter go to work. Greene is a big part of the bright future that is coming for the Cincinnati Reds. Let’s hope he can finish off his incredible end of the season with a big start tonight. Go Reds!

49 Responses

  1. Bet on Red

    wait they litterally turned around and played the same game in cinci

  2. VaRedsFan

    3 man booth with Welsh added tonight.

  3. VaRedsFan

    Greene on pace to strike out 27.

  4. Jim Walker

    Off to a great start here (NOT). Spectrum will only stream local over the air channels on both PC and iPad. Bally app plays the intro commercials then chokes!

      • Jim Walker

        Wondering what your Bally channels are now? My Bally is 29 and the 309 and 310 on the next tier.

        I have family in Wilmington and for several their channels except for the locals were the same as mine in subsurban Dayton but now they are different. More with Cincy I think.

  5. Old-school

    Friedl has 250 plate appearances and is hitting .237 with an OBP of .311. Thats not lead off hitter material. Maybe a 9 hole hitter or bench guy.

    If you re going to construct the next Reds team, TJ Friedl might be on that roster, but not as a lead off hitter or starting CF.

    Fraley against righties is hitting .277/.363./.514/.877

    That guy against a righty needs to be in 1/2 hole with India against a righty. Fraley is a very good hitter against righties. WRC+ 138.

    Reds have their left fielder and top of the order hitter against a righty.

    • Harry Stoner

      In Bell’s mind: Fast + CF = leadoff hitter.

      Analytics only matter when he wants them to matter.

      Whether they matter or not.

      Otherwise, he’ll stick with whatever old baseball truism that sticks in his mind.

      • Harry Stoner

        DB has had Altuve to help break him of bad habits for the last few years.

        When the Asterisks had George Springer in CF that was a no-brainer.
        Even though he was not too fast.

    • RED THUNDER

      Friedl batted mostly in the 9 hole at Louisville this year.

  6. Harry Stoner

    Greene is definitely letting it rip.

    I hope he can start getting the slider to work for him.

    A killer start would be a great way to wrap up his rookie season.

    Reds might score a run and let him win 1-0.

  7. Jim Walker

    Aquino can’t even buy a break just trying to block a ball over the IF when he is fooled. Too strong and it hangs for the CF

  8. Jim Walker

    If it weren’t for Barrero being even worse at the plate, would we be worrying that Steer isn’t ready for prime time?
    OPS/OPS+ .676/76 in 96 PAs. OBP at .313

    • Old-school

      Steer had a great 2022 year in the minors and is ready for MLB. Hes a top 100 MLB prospect and part of trading away Tyler Mahle and sacrificing 2023 for the long term. India struggled after 100-125 at bats too. Steer needs a full season. Reds gave that and more to Hamilton, Suarez, Peraza etc.

      Steer and Fraley are going to be front and center with opportunity in 2023 with regular playing time. And with that,,,,barrero gets a walk.

      • Jim Walker

        And 2 of the 3 (Hamilton and Peraza) never came around offensively.

        Steer’s 2022 AAA was a notch below Barrero’s 2021 AAA (OPS comp>Steer .836vs Barrero .986); and, look what’s happening with him now.

        Not saying give up on Steer. Am saying maybe he needs AAA time to start next year

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Agreed, Jim. I don’t see the bat from Steer that makes him a sure thing. Like you, I’m not giving up on him — everyone needs to adjust to the bigs. But ideally, he starts next year at Louisville, hammers Class AAA pitching and earns a recall to the bigs.

      • Jim Walker

        @Tom> This also touches on why I have been so insistent about Fairchild and finding out his potential. He is a guy who, yes, got jacked around by three organizations over the last year before landing back with the Reds. But during all that and then with the Reds at AAA he put up consistent offensive AAA numbers for what amounts to a season worth of PAs across 2 years (.889 OPS/123 wRC+).

        Now with 102PAs in MLB for 2022 here he sits at .780 OPS with a 116 wRC+. With the Reds in 2022 (89 PAs) he is at .881 OPS/142 wRC+. And this is on the heels of an 0 for 16 slide he appears to be breaking out of in his last 2 games.

        Yes. the sample size is still small; but. here is a guy who showed consistency with 4 teams across 2 leagues in 2 seasons at AAA stepping up in MLB and performing at a level his AAA body of work appears to suggest he might. Play him and see what happens.

      • Old-school

        Steer is a top 100 MLB prospect who dominated the minors in 2022 and found power. I can quote his stats in AA/AAA but suffice it to say the MLB prospect talent eval people elevated him to top 100 prospect status because he dominated the upper minors. Fraley is 40% above MLB average against righty pitchers.

        Krall is the GM. These 2 guys are headliners in 2 of the biggest reds trades since the horrific dodgers Bailey trade. They are going to play regularly and rightly so.

    • RED THUNDER

      Yes! But we have to give him a chance and hope he runs with it. Reds need players from somewhere. lol

  9. Jim Walker

    And we just saw the growth in Greene in that 3rd inning. The leadoff man did a good job of hitting to get a double off a pretty decent pitcher’s pitch. Instead of being flustered as in the past, Greene turned up the focus and blew through the next 3 guys,

    • VaRedsFan

      I’m sure he has, but I’m not sure I’ve seen Greene get too flustered…even in his bad games.

      • Jim Walker

        He tended to overthrow and simultaneously try to be too fine in those situations which I read as frustration.

  10. Old-school

    Reds manufacture a run? That cant be.
    Barrero walks. Steals 2b. Friedl chopper for infield hit and Cubs pitcher pressured and makes the error. More of this.

  11. Old-school

    Friedl looks like a bad hamstring.

    • VaRedsFan

      No good time for that, but especially with 3 games left

  12. Daytonnati

    Barrero probably goes 9 for 15 this series and raises everyone’s expectations … again.

    • Harry Stoner

      Greene very impressive since his trip to the IL.
      Working his way through more problems.
      He’s always had poise, but now he’s backing it up with smart pitching in tight spots.

      This is a very promising start to finish up his rookie year.

      Bravo.

  13. Old-school

    I would pull Greene here after 5
    75 pitches. Strong start but watching Freidl with what looks like a bad hamstring…shut Greene down. Nothing to gain .

  14. Mark Moore

    Greene definitely dominant in his last outing this season. And we finally backed him a little bit. I was watching during dinner and an errand mostly with the sound off.

    A win tonight for Greene would feel pretty good.

  15. Harry Stoner

    The Ghost of Schottzie still haunts the Cincinnati riverfront:
    “You muuuuuussssst walk the first batter you face! Ha ha ha ha ha!”

  16. Harry Stoner

    Rough night for Spencer Steer.

      • Harry Stoner

        He won’t be lonely.

        Plenty of company there.

  17. Mark Moore

    Just seems to me we’ve seen more broken bats this season than in prior years. If that’s the case, I’m wondering why? If I recall, there was some switching to maple bats away from ash and hickory a while back that resulted in more getting broken. Not sure if that still plays into it or not.

    3 more outs and we finally squeak out a win.

  18. Harry Stoner

    The Cincinnati riverfront is haunted.

    There is no other way to explain it.

    Or else it’s just ‘tradition’…..

    • Mark Moore

      The obligatory BB or HBP absolutely haunt us.

  19. Mark Moore

    Diaz showing just a bit of rust here. Can’t let this one slip away.

    • Harry Stoner

      I’ve got a bad feeling about this.

  20. VaRedsFan

    Throw the slider….can’t command the fastball….flying open

  21. VaRedsFan

    Pirates tied it up in the 8th…..
    Let’s go Pitt!. We need every percentage point (ping pong ball) we can get

  22. Bet on Red

    even game winning double plays are messed up lol at least that is a win

  23. Mark Moore

    Wow … score that one 4-6-3-6 double play.

    Larkin calling out Barrero for what looks like a growing habit of leaving 2nd early on the turn.

    • Harry Stoner

      Heads up play by Solano to bail Barrero out.

      Cost the Reds the shutout, though.

      Jose has some work ahead of him if he’s looking to hold on to his job.

  24. Harry Stoner

    Hunter Greene with the well-deserved win.

    Diaz with the “save”.