The Reds put the wraps on their 2022 road schedule versus the Cubs today at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Reds have lost 5 consecutive games and 8 of their last 10. Meanwhile the Cubs are trending in the opposite direction with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. A win today would boost the Reds to a final road record of 30-51. A 100 loss season can still be averted with 3 wins in the final 4 games beginning today.
Chase Anderson is scheduled to start for the Reds and Marcus Stroman for the Cubs in a match up of right handers.
|Links: Chase Anderson’s Stats | Marcus Stroman’s Stats
Today marks Chase Anderson’s seventh start in 8 appearances for the Reds dating back to August 29. It is just me or does it seem like Anderson has been around longer? I guess time slogs along when a team isn’t doing well.
After a disastrous start to his Reds tenure, Anderson has pitched well in his four most recent outings, posting a 2.50 ERA/ 3.12 FIP in 18 innings of work. Over the same stretch Anderson has compiled a K rate of 25% and better than respectable BB rate of 7.4%. His only shortfall has been his inability to get deeper into the games.
Anderson will become a service time free agent at the end of the season. The Reds would probably like to lock him into a minor league deal for 2023 as an organizational depth piece. Another good outing today could help him have the same or better opportunity elsewhere.
Marcus Stroman makes his 25th start of the season today for the Cubs. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters but neither does he walk many. Let’s see how that strike out rate plays versus the Reds today. Stroman’s handedness splits indicate LH hitters do markedly better against him in both average and slugging. However teams do not appear to overload their lineup with LH hitters against him as he has faced LH hitters in only 4 more plate appearances than RH hitters this season. Perhaps this is because Stroman strikes out a higher percentage and walks a lower percentage of LH hitters?
Stroman mixes a 4 seamer and cut fastball in the low 90’s mph range and works a significant percentage of full sliders in at around 85 mph. This gives him both a movement and velocity differential for hitters to deal with between the cutter and slider as well as forcing the hitter to read between the 4 seam fastball and cutter. He completes his assortment of pitches by mixing in a significant percentage of change up and curves.
The Reds pen sets up with Alex Diaz fully rested if the Reds can get to him to close the game. Reiver SanMartin and Fernando Cruz are also well rested which figures large given Chase Anderson typically gets an early hook even when he is pitching well. Hunter Strickland is also available.
The Cubs have a number of right handers and at least one lefthander looking good to go.
SP: Chase Anderson
SP: Marcus Stroman
|1. T.J. Friedl (RF)
2. Jonathan India (2B)
3. Kyle Farmer (SS)
4. Jake Fraley (DH)
5. Donovan Solano (1B)
6. Stuart Fairchild (LF)
7. Alejo Lopez (3B)
8. Mike Siani (CF)
9. Chuckie Robinson (C)
|1. Zach McKinstry (2B)
2. Willson Contreras (C)
3. Seiya Suzuki (RF)
4. Ian Happ (LF)
5. Nico Hoerner (SS)
6. Franmil Reyes (DH)
7. P.J. Higgins (1B)
8. David Bote (3B)
9. Nelson Velazquez (CF)
News and Notes
The Reds have played their way into the top four worst records in MLB. They could slip past the Pirates into the top three worst. The only (allegedly) good part of this is that the first six choices in the June 2023 draft will be decided by a weighted lottery. The teams with the 3 worst records all have the same chance of getting the top choice,16.50% each. The percentage for the fourth worst record is 13.25%.
The other side of the coin is all 18 teams not making the playoffs will have at least some miniscule shot at moving up as far as the top pick which means in a worst case scenario the Reds might drop out of the top 6 picks into even as low as 9th or 10th in the drafting order. What’s an tanking team to count on when even a historically bad record doesn’t ensure a top 5 pick?
Here is a link with draft standings and percents. You can scroll to the bottom of the linked page for the basic framework and rules about the draft lottery.
When Where and Weather
Game time: 2:20 Eastern Time
Where: Wrigley Field North Side Chicago
Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLBTV
Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
Forecast: 63°, Sunny, Wind NNE 12mph, 2% chance of rain