The Reds put the wraps on their 2022 road schedule versus the Cubs today at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Reds have lost 5 consecutive games and 8 of their last 10. Meanwhile the Cubs are trending in the opposite direction with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. A win today would boost the Reds to a final road record of 30-51. A 100 loss season can still be averted with 3 wins in the final 4 games beginning today.
Starting Pitchers
Chase Anderson is scheduled to start for the Reds and Marcus Stroman for the Cubs in a match up of right handers.
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Chase Anderson | 23.0 | 4.70 | 1.09 | 12.0% | 25.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | 132.2 | 3.66 | 1.15 | 6.3% | 20.6% |
| Links: Chase Anderson’s Stats | Marcus Stroman’s Stats |
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Chase Anderson
Today marks Chase Anderson’s seventh start in 8 appearances for the Reds dating back to August 29. It is just me or does it seem like Anderson has been around longer? I guess time slogs along when a team isn’t doing well.
After a disastrous start to his Reds tenure, Anderson has pitched well in his four most recent outings, posting a 2.50 ERA/ 3.12 FIP in 18 innings of work. Over the same stretch Anderson has compiled a K rate of 25% and better than respectable BB rate of 7.4%. His only shortfall has been his inability to get deeper into the games.
Anderson will become a service time free agent at the end of the season. The Reds would probably like to lock him into a minor league deal for 2023 as an organizational depth piece. Another good outing today could help him have the same or better opportunity elsewhere.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10.4 | 25.0 | .195 | .292 | .366 |
| LHH | 44 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13.6 | 25.0 | .167 | .296 | .306 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | Cutter | Curve | Change | Slider | |
| Velo | 92.1 | 90.2 | 77.8 | 83.0 | 83.3 |
| Usage | 38.1% | 17.8% | 8.4% | 28.0% | 7.7% |
Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman makes his 25th start of the season today for the Cubs. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters but neither does he walk many. Let’s see how that strike out rate plays versus the Reds today. Stroman’s handedness splits indicate LH hitters do markedly better against him in both average and slugging. However teams do not appear to overload their lineup with LH hitters against him as he has faced LH hitters in only 4 more plate appearances than RH hitters this season. Perhaps this is because Stroman strikes out a higher percentage and walks a lower percentage of LH hitters?
Stroman mixes a 4 seamer and cut fastball in the low 90’s mph range and works a significant percentage of full sliders in at around 85 mph. This gives him both a movement and velocity differential for hitters to deal with between the cutter and slider as well as forcing the hitter to read between the 4 seam fastball and cutter. He completes his assortment of pitches by mixing in a significant percentage of change up and curves.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 270 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 7.4% | 18.1 | .209 | .278 | .340 |
| LHH | 274 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 5.1% | 22.9 | .260 | .297 | .423 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | Slider | Cutter | Change | Curve | |
| Velo | 92.2 | 85.3 | 90.3 | 87.2 | 82.3 |
| Usage | 48.1% | 25.8 | 11.1% | 11.9% | 3.1% |
Bullpens
REDS
The Reds pen sets up with Alex Diaz fully rested if the Reds can get to him to close the game. Reiver SanMartin and Fernando Cruz are also well rested which figures large given Chase Anderson typically gets an early hook even when he is pitching well. Hunter Strickland is also available.
CUBS
The Cubs have a number of right handers and at least one lefthander looking good to go.
Starting Lineups
| REDS
SP: Chase Anderson |
CUBS
SP: Marcus Stroman |
| 1. T.J. Friedl (RF) 2. Jonathan India (2B) 3. Kyle Farmer (SS) 4. Jake Fraley (DH) 5. Donovan Solano (1B) 6. Stuart Fairchild (LF) 7. Alejo Lopez (3B) 8. Mike Siani (CF) 9. Chuckie Robinson (C) |
1. Zach McKinstry (2B) 2. Willson Contreras (C) 3. Seiya Suzuki (RF) 4. Ian Happ (LF) 5. Nico Hoerner (SS) 6. Franmil Reyes (DH) 7. P.J. Higgins (1B) 8. David Bote (3B) 9. Nelson Velazquez (CF) |
News and Notes
The Reds have played their way into the top four worst records in MLB. They could slip past the Pirates into the top three worst. The only (allegedly) good part of this is that the first six choices in the June 2023 draft will be decided by a weighted lottery. The teams with the 3 worst records all have the same chance of getting the top choice,16.50% each. The percentage for the fourth worst record is 13.25%.
The other side of the coin is all 18 teams not making the playoffs will have at least some miniscule shot at moving up as far as the top pick which means in a worst case scenario the Reds might drop out of the top 6 picks into even as low as 9th or 10th in the drafting order. What’s an tanking team to count on when even a historically bad record doesn’t ensure a top 5 pick?
Here is a link with draft standings and percents. You can scroll to the bottom of the linked page for the basic framework and rules about the draft lottery.
When Where and Weather
Game time: 2:20 Eastern Time
Where: Wrigley Field North Side Chicago
Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLBTV
Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
Forecast: 63°, Sunny, Wind NNE 12mph, 2% chance of rain
I don’t care much for the new draft rules, but it is what it is. The CBA, rather than increasing competition and eliminating tanking, appears to have done just the opposite. Oh well, by this time next week, this will all be over. Then we fans can all give in to the usual offseason, unbridled optimism, just certain that next year’s team will actually win some games. And like Charlie Brown, playing football with Lucy, we’re doomed to failure.
I am not familiar with the NBA but in the NHL they only draw for the #1 and #2 slots and no team can be dropped over 1 slot from their “natural” position based on record and tie breakers. So, I was surprised that 6 slots would go in the draft and there was no guaranteed floor for the worst records other than the lottery odds. But then hockey is somewhat more like NFL/ NBA where a top pick can make a huge instant impact in in his first year or NLT his 2nd or 3rd.
I’d like to see MLB put in weighting with even more bite. Put the first 3 teams missing the playoffs into a pool with the 3 worst records in a lottery only for the top 2 picks then do picks 3-6 with the weighting as it is now with the remaining 16 teams after the first two have been awarded.
I’d give the 3 teams closest to making the playoffs half the chances of the 3 worst records of getting the #1 or #2 pick in that limited lottery.
Just copy the NFL’s model, you don’t have to reinvent the wheel. This lotto system is stupid and won’t fix tanking.
The Reds are not tanking for higher draft picks, they are tanking because their owner is one of the cheapest owners in Sports.
GABP homer, meet Wrigley single
I agree Jim. If the #1 pick in the MLB draft is a high school player it could take 4-6 years before they make an impact. Tanking in baseball is not the same as tanking in the other major sports league. Even if the player is a high quality college player, it still could take 2-3 years before they can be an impact player at the ML level. Baseball players are also no sure thing in the top end of the draft like the other sports. I just don’t get the lottery in baseball. Chalk this up as a “Manfred”.
By shrinking the minors, i think MLB is discouraging drafting high schoolers; let the colleges or lower pro leagues do the costly, risky, and time consuming player dev and be more like football, I suppose.
I think the flaw with the anti tank rules is that they presume owners are acting in good faith when it was abundantly clear during these last CBA negotiations that they already don’t.
BY design or just by happenstance, I think MLB is headed toward a development system which looks a lot like the North American hockey development system.
The MLB draft has been contracted.
The rookie leagues with direct team to MLB team affiliations have been replaced by leagues affiliated with (and presumably financially supported in part by) MLB but the individual teams in them are not directly affiliated with MLB teams.
These leagues accommodate undrafted players, many of whom would have previously been drafted to fill out the rookie league ranks.
Next up to be reorganized are Class A, A+ and possibly AA. They will probably contract the draft again (but not as severely) and merge all of Class A/A+ into single level. At this point we would probably start to see some drafted players assigned on an individual basis onto teams into the affiliated leagues despite the teams not being affiiated with a specific MLB team. The MLB teams would simply pay for the placement of these specific players onto those teams. The question is whether Class AA would also be included in such a merger.
At least we lead the league in hitting opposition batters
I gave Anderson a big benefit of the doubt in the preview and here he is set up for major trouble in B1!!!
On the bright side, Happ didn’t homer 😮
I’m really stretching here, friends
And on the other hand, Solano misplayed a gimme out
Stopped a full foot short. I get it’s not an easy play with the fence coming up, but …
Listened to several Reds interviews over the last few days including Cowboy, Bobby Nightengale, David Bell pregame today and a interview with Nick Krall by Jim Day.
Cowboy upset with the defense and wants more pitching.
Nightengale implied there’s no major FA acquisitions coming this winter. Thats not to say there wont be FA added, just nothing earth shattering.
Bell admitted times were tough and “we’ve” talked about that.
Krall was the interesting interview. He acknowledged a 40 man crunch is coming and the first few weeks of the off-season will be dedicated to getting that 40 man. Jim Day asked is this a busy time of year as I know you’ve had lots of meetings. Krall said yes and we are evaluating players AND coaches and said they had meetings with coaches in Pittsburgh.
There is going to be a lot of players let go.
I think Zinter has already been informed he’s not coming back.
There is no FA cavalry coming. 2023 is going to be a tough year again.
Per BBRef’s version of 40 man rosters and IL lists, the Reds have 7 pitchers on the 60 day IL; and I wouldn’t bet on any of them except Santillan specifically to make it back onto the 40 man.
All of the other six probably won’t be dropped but more than half could. Question is which ones. We don’t have particulars about their progress or longer term prognosis.
My guess would be that they will probably keep only one catcher in addition to Stephenson on the 40 man as a placeholder. This guy could go later in the off season as opportunities present to get somebody better. So there are 3 more opened spots by my count.
Antone is back and completed his fall rehab and threw the final time this week and will resume throwing in January. I think Antone will be on the 40 and Reds depending on Santillan and Sims as well for next years bullpen per Nightengale.
With regards to Nick Krall: I think he wants to have a future in baseball, as someone in the Top Management of a team. I think that therefore, he is honestly trying to make the best of a bad situation, regarding the ownership of the Reds.
He won’t be here forever, and won’t be with the Reds forever.
Other teams might look at him (resume) as someone who was shrewd with the kind of Ownership directives he has been given. He can do as told, and make the best of a frankly, bad situation.
The hundred losses are all on the Ownership. This is the team and budget they wanted. There is frankly no excuse for this, and tanking is just about what they have done.
Yes, there is some very good potential talent in the Minors. Whether all or some of these players emerge to be good or great ML players is yet to be seen.
The losing is hard to take. What is harder is looking at how poorly the team is managed, as directed by Ownership.
I don’t know about the upcoming talent being so great. We have about exhausted our near term prospects and the results of these last 2 months have been really ugly. And some of these guys were pretty highly ranked. Barerro, Santillan, Aquino,Okey, etc. No qualms about the pitchers ….except they may better get some offense sooner rather than later. Kyle Wright just won 20 games and he is Greene’s peer in the draft. (No offense to Hunter but just noting the striking difference in production.). I think there may be somebody there to replace Luis, Tyler, and Sonny but what about the loss production of Nick, Geno, Wink, and Naquin. That is about 100 HRs and 320 rbis. That has to be addressed. And if the answers don’t seem evident, then doesn’t that have to come via free agency? Don’t the last 2 months validate that isn’t coming from Louisville?
can we just like cancel the rest of the season
+1,000,000
This is death by a thousand paper cuts plus lemon juice
Reds are going out like they came in this season. Cincinnati deserves so much better than this
Number 99 locked and loaded
Well … Chase had nothing today. We’ll see what Cruz can do with this colossal pile of you-know-what.
Yikes, looks like it’ll take a sweep in Cincinnati to avoid the 100 losses. A hundred losses make a statement about the organization from top to the bottom. Now we’ll see if Krall is up to the job. If not, be like Mattingly and walk away from an organization committed to losing.
So who can come in and lead? @LDS says a better manager can win with this roster “paraphrasing ” others say it’s all David bell, others say upper management.
So, I ask who can lead this team in 2023. And can we as fans be patient
I don’t have a name, but the Reds need a serious baseball guy with a short fuse that’ll kick butt & take names. Not a guy that continues to excuse every lousy play this team makes. Truthfully, it seems Bell is more likely to sit you down following a 4-hit game than one in which the player makes a series of fundamental errors, e.g., bad baserunning, throwing to the wrong base, etc. But get used to it. Next year will likely be more of the same.
Agree
I think they need somebody who can tell a player when they aren’t cutting it and demand more of the player (in the clubhouse or locker room). But I think with a potentially young team coming, what would be counter productive is a guy with a short fuse, ready to yell at players (in public) for screwing up. Maybe you’re thinking of Lou Pinella or somebody like Billy Martin.
A manager can be really tough on guys not being their best, without being a screamer. Sometimes very quiet anger is harder to take than somebody who yells at the player in public. I don’t think (very often, I don’ think!) that yelling at pro-athletes works that well. I know it is bad for coaching kids.
And maybe I am totally mis-interpreting what you mean. But I do agree that a manager who doesn’t call out bad playing is not a good manager. But maybe they should do it in the manager’s office or in the locker room.
A manager can have a short fuse without screaming at the players or trashing them in pubic. So, no not a Billy Martin. But it’s equally bad for the manager to continuously dismiss lousy performance with inane comments in interviews.
Not endorsing for the position but I realy like Jeff Brantley’s temperment. He isn’t hiding his discust with the shoddy play. He doesn’t need to raise his voice to let you know he’s not happy.
Probably doesn’t matter the Reds won’t be relevant without new ownership and they’re making too much money to sell
Yep
And they’ll likely waste a lot of minor league talent. So, it goes. Bob & company will get theirs.
something we agree on 😉
Patience would come if we saw tangible improvement. That will be a tough hill to climb if we have the current ownership group in place as they’ve made their position very clear.
I’m in the camp that says a better manager and coaching team could squeeze more wins out of the roster, especially if we found that elusive “accountability” none of us as fans observe even if it is there. That won’t equal a winning club, but it will send a message.
Culling the dead wood and catching some magic with the young roster will help, but there still won’t be a division title in the future without a whole lot of luck and stellar health. Maybe a wild card spot, but that’s a fringe iffy thing as well.
That’s my position.
Agree
Well, they didn’t clear the bases and we got another out. That’s all good stuff, right?
Nightengale has an article up also talking up the bullpen development and improvement in 2023???? This is Reds narrative going into the off-season. Reds are hoping returning pitchers from injuries- Antone,Sims, and Santillan will add to Diaz.
Buck Farmer and San Martin special mention as well plus the Reds will rely on a “couple” of the combination of Kuhnel,Cruz,Law and Gibault.
David Bell “ To me, it has the makings of a really strong bullpen”.
Get your season tickets early.
As I tell my clients and students, “hope is not a strategy”
Then again, what else do we have?
I know you are being sarcastic, but there is no “bull pen” development.
Diaz has emerged as a raw talent, but that’s about it.
I don’t know if you can count on any of these guys that are injured in coming back, especially Sims, Antone (two TJ surgeries, now) and Santillan.
Cruz has good stuff, if you use him properly. Set up man or closer. Good for 1 inning at a time.
The rest are questionable. The Reds will still have Bullpen problems next year if this is the way that they think. And maybe they can injure Diaz too, with enough mis-use.
I agree on the injured guys. The same is true of Moustakas and Votto. Votto is 39. Moustakas shows no signs of being committed to being in shape. I’ve seen reports that say Antone won’t be ready by ST anyway. The Reds need a strategy besides hope (and confidence that the fans, however few remain, keep spending).
What’s even worse is that the Bengals played Thursday and I can’t even go watch them instead of this garbage
7 months ago:
David Bell: “we are getting better in a really weird way.”
How little things have changed.
I said back then, the quote should have been, “we’re getting weirder in a better way”
Makes about as much sense, especially 158 games in.
Yep.
“When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” – Hunter Thompson
I hope gabp is sold out the last 3 games. Cub fans fill the stands. I agree with something needs to change. 2 winning seasons since what 2014? And a second “rebuild” since 2014? I feel like I am off a year.
Ownership doesn’t care who fills his pockets as long as they’re filled
I’ve done the math on the attendance at GABP and revenue. If you estimate a conservative $40 per head all-in and draw 2M fans in a season, you get $80M in the coffers. That’s gross margin, of course, so the profitability on high attendance isn’t where the dollars roll in. Even if you get to a $50/$60 per head gross, the net isn’t that much in the bigger picture.
Now, fill the park with 40K fans each of the 82 home games, and the numbers grow substantially. Even at 30K fans average, it’s bigger than the conservative numbers I threw out.
For me, it still falls to the ownership group who don’t appear inclined to care much about the actual product they put on the field. So, at that point it becomes a Catch-22.
And with that money they could sign a couple good players but it won’t happen
Agreed, burt. It’s only part of the equation and could be used as an edge for a higher-end player. Then again, said player needs to WANT to play at GABP for this team and ownership. And I’m with you … ownership won’t do it anyway.
Siani has made some tough catches in CF battling the sun. His arm and instincts look good as well. Unlike Friedl, who missed multiple balls and had some bad throws a few weeks ago in the Wrigley conditions.
Siani is a major league CF. Friedl is not. Hitting is a different story and TBD.
How is it still the 4th inning?
Because the 1st inning took 4 hours to complete 😀
Thrall and Cowboy seem baffled at times with the HP Chumpire’s Flex-o-Zone
Started the season 3 and 22. Could end it 4 and 22
Is it Thursday yet?
I do think that Lopez will survive the upcomming cuts
He’s a versatile, switch-hitting, contact guy … I would think he survives.
What about San Martin?
yea he does as well
He does in my book
Congrats to Albert for swatting #702
If the Reds and Pirates finish tied, reds get in the top 3 because of Pirates series win advantage correct?
Looks that way to me. Reverse tie breaker application. 😉
No shut-out today … that’s a positive, right?
Siani is probably part of the 2025- 2027 competitive team. I doubt he will be a starter, but his defense is elite. This team will need such a player. He has two years to improve his hitting. I think they should try playing Eli De La Cruz in centerfield. I just want to see how well he can do at that position. It might be his best fit for the 2025-2027 team, if he can play CF well enough.
I’d agree based on the limited knowledge I have. ELDC needs to play next season in CF and maybe get Eric Davis to directly coach him. There seem to be other SS options with better glovework in the pipeline.
Then again, I have to remind myself that almost all of these kids played SS, pitched, caught, or CF … if not multiple of those positions … in their amateur careers. We’re seeing top athletes for the most part. That’s who rises to this level across the board.
According to what they said DLC will be a ss in the majors.It was said during an interview with minor league big wig
If the Reds are going to try that experiment, I hope they get a dedicated coach who can really work with him to build skills but also common sense.
I’d hate to see DLC crashing into walls and diving after uncatchable balls.
The Reds need him for his bat and speed on the bases.
I’d play him somewhere safer.
And with that little gem, I’m calling it a Clete. Just more of the same from this beat-up bunch today.
Probably catch y’all tomorrow for a bit … depending.
Can we just wave a white flag and call it a day?
I just did that 😀
There’s perhaps nothing more withering or infuriating about this Reds team than relief pitchers habit of walking the first batter they face.
And nothing more daxxing of the manager and pitching coach for tolerating it and doing nothing to fix it.
“We’re down by seven runs, it’s the bottom of the eighth. Throw strikes.”
ca$tillini=losing
Look, this club badly needs some offensive production and 2022 has shown that we better not count on India, Votto, Moose, Fraley, Romine, Friedl, Lopez, Senzel, etc. for such. And I don’t think we are talking over achievement from 1-2 guys in 2023 as being the cure all. We were 20 games under 500 in 4 months with Naquin, Drury, Pham, and Stephenson included. Another 20 games under in 2 months!! without them. I don’t know the 2023 goals but if we are targeting a 15 game improvement (75 wins), then doesn’t the math suggest we need about 4-5 personnel improvements on offense over the second half roster? I am not projecting that this will happen but just offering how far away we may be from mediocrity. Looking back, I think the Reds positives from the year are the 3-4-5 young pitchers. The negatives have to include the injuries, the bullpen, the offensive production of the young guys, the loss of Luis, and the continued salaries of Joey and Moose.