The Cincinnati Reds (60-93) will begin their final road trip of the 2022 season. It all begins tonight at the beautiful PNC Park against the Pittsburgh Pirates (56-97) at 6:35 PM. The Reds ended their three game losing streak yesterday with a late inning victory. The Reds need to go 3-6 or better in their final nine games to avoid 100 losses this season.
The Reds are 7-9 against the Pirates this season, and would need a sweep to avoid their first losing season against the Pirates since 2019. The Reds had a streak from September 28, 2019 through May 13, 2022 where they were 26-10 against the Pirates.
Starting Pitchers
Chase Anderson will get another start for the Reds. He hopes to continue on his success of late. Anderson has a 2.16 ERA/3.96 FIP over his last 4 starts, and surprisingly, he has not been allowing a lot of hard contact. He hasn’t pitched very deep into games – likely intentionally by David Bell. He has yet to throw more than 5.0 innings or more than 89 pitches. This will be Anderson’s first start against the Pirates this season. He has a career 3.41 ERA against the Pirates in 19 starts, but he has only faced them once since 2019.
Roansy Contreras has had a very successful rookie season for the Pirates. He entered the season ranked as the #80 overall prospect by Baseball America. The Pirates have had a lot of disappointments with pitching prospects in the big leagues in recent memory, so they have to be very excited with what Contreras has put together in 2022. Contreras has dominated the Reds this season, with a 1.80 ERA in 2 starts: 10.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 10 K.
Starting Lineups
Stuart Fairchild continues to earn playing time with the Reds. He is hitting an unbelievable .284/.369/.527 with a 148 wRC+ in 84 PA this season.
Miguel Andujar will be making his debut for the Pirates tonight. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner-up (2018) was claimed off waivers from the Yankees. He was unhappy in New York and reportedly requested being traded. He has really struggled in New York since his rookie season, hitting .228/.255/.318 with a 56 wRC+ in 376 PA since 2019. He has however had a 113 wRC+ at AAA this season and last season put up a 166 wRC+ at AAA in 63 PA.
2023 MLB Draft/Odds
The Reds are 4.0 games ahead of the Pirates for 4th place in the NL Central. The Reds currently have the fourth worst record in MLB. For the 2023 draft, MLB will be implementing a draft lottery to determine the order. The Reds would have the highest odds should they fall into the worst three records in MLB.
-How the odds work explained by Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline.
All 18 non-playoff clubs will enter a lottery for the top six picks. The percentage chances of each team getting the No. 1 choice, in reverse order of winning percentages: pic.twitter.com/lzWR3PeOqW
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) March 11, 2022
-Current bottom of MLB “standings”
–Tankathon current MLB Draft Lottery Odds
Conclusion
Nine games left in the season. The Reds bats have really been struggling, but it would be nice to see some players fighting for 2023 jobs finish strong against the Pirates and Cubs. Go Reds!
Since the Reds aren’t showing a great deal of ability at drafting and developing talent, e.g., Senzel, Hendrick, tanking for draft position would qualify as an exceedingly braindead move. Tanking to line Castellini’s pockets by continuously spending zip, well that’s the current Reds’ way.
They can’t tank too much…Because the higher the pick, the higher the signing bonus in most cases
yeah, we suck at drafting:
Stephenson, India, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Diaz, Antone, McGarry, Kuhnel, Santillan, Alejo, Votto, Fairchild, Siani, Friedl (sort of), Mahle (till the Reds didn’t feel they could afford him)
Ervin, Blandino, Senzel, Trammel, Downs, Hendrick, Howard, all Reds 1st round picks since 2013. All either gone or not developing. Stephenson, Green, Lodolo, and India are the exceptions. The others aren’t first round picks and thus not applicable to a discussion of tanking to improve first round positioning.
Sometimes I wonder if the people who complain about the Reds being cheap, and the people who complain about Votto’s contract are the same people. They hopefully aren’t the same people, but these are the things I think about during a disappointing season.
If you think you have to be a super power to win, This are some ranks for Cleveland.
27 wins in final AB (1st)
12 extra inning wins (1st)
26-16 in 1 run games (2nd)
18 % strikeout rate (lowest)
103 stole bases (3rd)
116 HR’s (2nd Lowest)
Bullpen ERA (5th) – but the best since July…I would BOLD this if I could
Team Payroll – 54 million….3RD LOWEST… again BOLD
Average age 26 (youngest)
Yes, the players play the games, but Francona and his coaches are a large part of this.
+5,000
That’s the difference between a serious “small market” team and the Castellini Reds.
I’m curious to see how Andujar does with the Pirates–didn’t think he’d make it very far down the waiver wire.
Since the start of 2019 he’s hit .228/.255/.318. I’m surprised he was claimed. He’s hit like a “good hitting pitcher” for several years running.
True, although playing time has been very spotty for him as his performance waned. Personally, I think the Yankees held on to him for too long.
getting into the home stretch here
At one point, I had considered attending this series … but I nixed that idea. No regrets on that decision.
I see Barrero is out of DTBell’s dog house for tonight. Let’s kick some Pie-rat tail!
C Trent has an article up today. Bell is quoted as saying they are getting Barrero regular time to focus on hitting and hes made progress just hasn’t translated into on field results but he will play the rest of the year as the shortstop. Also said reds Hitting coaches will visit him in Florida this off-season as well to work on things.
Depends on the coach. If it’s Eric Davis, he has hope. If it’s Zinter, his career is over.
I hope these will be new Red’s hitting coaches who will be visiting Barrero this offseason in Florida.
+billions, billions
Dog house???
Nice oppo by India to get us rolling. Too bad TJ didn’t manage to get on base.
Way to bear down by India! It ended up being a pretty good throws.
Just a note, Farmer would have walked on the first 4 pitches based on what I saw 😀
India sprinted hard home to score by a whisker.
He is running on a leg and prayer though. Hopefully it all gets healed over the winter
Now I have a Bon Jovi ear worm 🙂
Lot of work to put up stats that many of us have no clue what many of them mean. I understand that many like all the new numbers, but in reality most baseball fans still like the standard stats.
A good starting point, at least it was for me, was to consider that OBP is the percent of the time a plate appearance did not cause an out. And when I stopped to think about that, it seemed to me that for most purposes, OBP was probably more indicative of overall offensive performance than batting average
I’m good with OBP. Great stat, but I also like the traditional stats as well. Not a big fan of the newer stats other than to use them to expand upon the traditional stats, but certainly not to replace them.
I like the K rate and BB rates. If the walk rate is double digits, thats a marker for plate discipline. If the K rate is above 30%, big time red flags…1-9 then turns into 2-31 with 14 K’s.
Yep. This is how I knew something was going on with Fraley even when he eeked out those 3 singles in the one game. His K rate had gone from low 20s% to 33% and his BB rate had dropped from just almost 11% to well under 5 %. So my eye test he was swing at and missing a lot more pitches was confirmedd
1-0
Double by India. Good way to start and score on a sack fly by farmer. Farmer is a good player.
If you want to see something cool they are slamming a satellite into an asteroid in a test today
That is awesome.
you tube nasa live…. it is expected to impact in 15 mins
Just watched the full report on that on PBS Newshour. pretty interesting stuff. Very narrow margin of error in terms of when they will “acquire” the target. like 30-80 minutes before they need to strike it.
they just acquired it…
2.5 minutes
Anderson is working pretty hard, but he’s throwing mostly strikes. Wondering how long he’ll be able to last tonight before he’s out of gas.
The big 3 are in the rotation next year but after that, reds are going to need to find 3-4 more options until the next wave of young pitching ready. Tyler Anderson is 32 yo lefty for the Dodgers, ERA under 3, fWAR 4. Projections are 2/22. Sign him to a 2 year reasonable AAV contract as sp #4 and bridges into 2024. Reds going to need to find another SP5. Cessa might be SP6 and long reliever.
I hope Aquino is released this off season. He is of no value to this team. Strikes out way to much. Can’t hit other than the occasional home run
Darn it, Anderson is growing on me. Could he and Cesa bridge the gap in starting rotation next year??
Stay tuned
Friedl out of the stadium….booom
I’ve said this about Reds pitchers a thousand time….down and in to a lefty…NO-NO
Friedl just has a knack of making things happen. He is always in the middle of runs being scored.
I also don’t understand Cowboy saying he can’t play center. Just because he can’t throw to home plate from CF. The key to playing center is getting to the ball before it hits the ground or gets past you. He can do this just fine…..until someone better comes along.
Fredl hits a moonshot almost simultaneously as Nasa shoots at moons…. true story lol
+10,000
Man they hit that thing square! Maybe one of the NASA folks could come be our batting coach?
I work for NASA.
Where do I sign up?
1st rule…only swing at strikes.
How’d I do?
+50,000
You’ve got my vote
I used to work at the cape. Was part of the Delta II program. Complex 17 A&B.
I’m at Langley here in VA.
Awesome VA. Great stuff. Unfortunately if you are a hitting coach in MLB and your FO has given you players who dont know how to identify a strike or ball….hitting coaches cant teach that. they can teach mechanics and approach and swing plane and hitting to the opposite field and be short to the ball….etc…..they cant teach in 0.47 seconds do or dont swing.
Not saying this is a good thing, but I can see Cessa, Dunn, and Chase Anderson in Goodyear starting games in ST.
We may get 5 from Chase after all. Seems he’s settled down.
Weather delay? I guess it’s time for my evening walk. I hope this doesn’t go too late, assuming they get back to playing.
I bet we wouldn’t have a rain delay if Nasa was in charge of the decision lol
😀
+1,000
how long are they saying it is going to be
810 restart
Every weekday at 11:45 there’s a 3-5 minute segment talking with Jeff Brantley on WLW. Question to Cowboy: who will be starting shortstop next year leaving spring training. Cowboy said there’s ZERO chance it will be EDLC. Now, is there a chance soon after? Maybe. His bet will be Kyle Farmer. Again, Brantley’s opinion…
Anderson per baseball savant is throwing 4 pitches mixing speeds and frustrating hitters. Hes throwing a high 70’s curveball, low 80’s change up, high 80’s cutter and 90-92 mph 4 seam FB.
He and Overton might be good competition for a change of pace guy from the right side in the rotation with Greene and Ashcraft 100 mph heat. Find a lefty veteran complement to Lodolo.
I’m thinking for every good LHSP like you describe there are a dozen Minors out there. Everybody wants one.
Back online. Looks like I didn’t miss anything.
nope lol
Anderson hit his limit?
Anderson hurt? or Bell being Bell LOL or analytics told him so LOL
Little League / Bush League execution on our part. Left home plate completely nekid.
Reds playing for a playoff spot tonight or what LOL… 3 picthers in 5th inning?
It would appear … and it ain’t working.
So was defense that bad Mark, or just bad luck
More than a little of both. Mark Reynolds is out of position at 1st, so that compounds things.
Dodged a hail of bullets and self-inflicted wounds after getting knee-capped.
Offense needs to pick it up here.
Is it just me, or the boys swinging like they’re thinking about offseason golf?
At least we got an out before the compulsory walk
Bell gonna pitch everyone tonight? LOL
Barrero is 14-103 with 44 K’s
Aquino is 1-30 with 13K’s
Farmer is limping to the finish line at 3-24 and below 2021 and career stats.
Back to our old ways! Four pitchers so far and four (4) walks! And, of course, one of those walks scored!
I’m thinking AA realizes he’s playing his last week for the Reds and maybe at the MLB level. Might be time to think about Japan. His arm just seems “off”.
Barrero is depressing… He can¿t be in the majors in 2023 if he continues being an out by rule… How can the Reds be solid when Barrero makes a costing miscues at SS and is unable to hit in every game …
I’m sure for Barrero the season can’t end soon enough.
I’m not giving up on him, nor do I think the Reds should.
ST he’s going to have some more folks breathing down his neck for the job and he’ll either step up or continue to look absolutely clueless at the plate.
He’s clearly lost and running him out there every day really isn’t helping at all.
Back to AAA. Or AA.
It would be reckless to just cut him loose at this time.
Barrero has no place in the majors. Had enough chances this year. Could never hit now he plays lousy defense . Give the other guys their shot at short in the spring. It’s like he’s going through the motions instead of a young man trying to make a team.
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I just got a “Clete Loading” message on all my devices.
And Kevin, DTBell might just get a chance to pitch everybody tonight … even Alejo Lopez.
Not really sure what is going on. So far from what he normally does.
I am out for the night
Clete now 90% loaded …
Mismanagement of bullpen again in my opinion. Anderson was doing just fine
Classic Bell managing like a Little League manager! At least everyone gets a trophy!
Reds 60-94 with Detroit and KC playing next series. Doubt reds finish any better than 5th worse and 4 looks more and more plausible.
The Reds have a good shot at last place in the division if the Pirates sweep them – again. These game will clinch the season series for the Pirates. That alone should cause heads to roll.
I see the Pirates lineup and it is evident that is much better than the Reds right now and maybe only the pitching could be even so, actually, this series is very tough …The 100 loses are closer….
Just as a note, I did my part today. I wore multiple pieces of Reds gear. So this game isn’t on me … 😀
And with that nifty little piece of glove and footwork, my Clete is fully loaded.
Night, all.
Fundamentally we are horrible. How Bell survives is hard to understand. Someone has to be held accountable. Getting beat by the Brewers and Cardinals is one thing but getting our rear ends handed to us by the Pirates is unacceptable.
I agree! Bell has got to go!
Punisher punishes… on almost last pitch of the game
5 straight losses to the last place team in the division. Lost the season series for the first time in several years. This team isn’t even trying anymore. And that’s on the manager. Period.
Reds had 5 hits against one of the few teams worse than they are. Two hits were by rookies. One hit was by a second year player and two were by whatever Aquino is considered. Not clear to me why we need experienced free agents. Get Stephenson back with Garcia as backup. Quit the Barrero experiment at MLB until he spends enough time in the minors to re-learn how to hit. Get a couple more hungry youngsters in the lineup. Start grooming Votto as an instructor.
Based on a comment yesterday about eyes, perhaps the Reds need an ophthalmologist to test field of vision and ability to see spin with each position player!
Pretty much agree with all you said, except I’ve had the impression that Votto doesn’t want that kind of responsibility. As for the eyes, I’ve been suspicious of Aquino’s eyesight for a while. Might explain his affinity for the exaggeratedly open stance, e.g. poor peripheral vision.