Graham Ashcraft and Connor Overton struggled in their returns to the mound for the Reds. In what turned out to be a piggy-back type start, the two pitchers combined to give up nine earned runs over seven innings. It got uglier for the Reds in the ninth inning, when position player Alejo Lopez gave up a bomb to Rowdy Tellz to make it a 10-2 ballgame. That would be the final score.

The Brewers have won four straight games to really start putting some pressure on the Phillies and Padres for the final wild card spot. The Brewers are now 1.5 games behind the Phillies for the final spot, but could get to within 1.0 game of the final spot with a late night loss from the Padres.

Final R H E
Milwaukee Brewers (82-70) 10 13 0
Cincinnati Reds (59-93) 2 4 0
W: Burnes (11-8) L: Ashcraft (5-4)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Graham Ashcraft allowing a 2-run home run to Hunter Renfroe with 1 out in the 4th inning, giving the Brewers a 2-1 lead. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 18.8% (from 59.6% to 40.8%).

Positives

Stuart Fairchild had a hit and a walk against Corbin Burnes. Fairchild continues to make the most of his opportunities. He his hitting .286/.375/.543 on the season.

Matt Reynolds also had a hit and a walk against Corbin Burnes. Reynolds’ hit in the 7th inning drove in a run and chased Burnes from the game.

Aristides Aquino ended a streak of 0-for-24 at the plate with an infield single in the 7th inning.

Joel Kuhnel pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout.

Negatives

Graham Ashcraft started out strong in his first start in over a month. Ashcraft retired the Brewers in order and threw 9 of his 13 pitches in the first inning over 100 MPH, topping out at 101.3. Ashcraft got double-plays to get out of both the 2nd and 3rd inning, but it all fell apart in the 4th inning. Ashcraft allowed 5 hits and hit a batter in the 4th. His final line on the day: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR.

Connor Overton didn’t give up a ton of super hard contact, but struggled through 3.0 innings in relief of Ashcraft. The big blow to Overton was a pretty cheap 360 ft. home run with an expected batting average of .070. It was Overton’s first appearance since May 17th, so it would probably not be wise to make much out of it. Overton’s velocity was just a tick down from his normal speed. Overton’s final line: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR. The home run allowed was first one for Overton in 27.2 innings this season.

Not so random thoughts……………

The Reds will need to go at least 4-6 over their final 10 games to avoid 100 losses. The Reds remaining games: Brewers (1), Pirates (3), Cubs (6).

Up Next:

Brewers at Reds
Sunday, 1:40 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Nick Lodolo (3.90 ERA/3.37 xFIP) vs Freddy Peralta (3.45 ERA/3.77 xFIP)

32 Responses

  1. JB

    We have to get Blandino back. Lopez cannot close it out. Make Blandino priority one this off season.

    • Still a Red

      Now this sarcasm has a bit of humor to it.

    • Doc

      Sarcasm aside, when you have a terrible BP all year and are in the process, at least one hopes, of trying to sort out a few things for 2023, why do you waste an inning having Lopez pitch? Give that inning to someone you need to see for off season decision-making. If you are going to waste it on someone, bring in Aquino. Maybe his cannon arm can make him the next F. Cruz. At least you would be evaluating someone for something.

  2. DataDumpster

    A sad game for sure but the fireworks starting about the 7th inning really threw me off as well as the announcers. They were rather quiet with little intensity but also appreciated by fans who probably wanted to get out of Dodge as the score ballooned in the wrong way. The show concluded, the Reds offense sputtered to the finish and rising star Lopez finished off the 9th with a pitching performance comparable to those who came before him. There is still 1 to take.

  3. Jim Walker

    I see I made a solid decision to watch the Ohio State football game because at least the team I follow was on the good side of that rout.

    • Jim Walker

      Things to do (watch) today aside from the Reds in season exhibition game or pro football circus> Both ends of an NHL split squad CBJ doubleheader are being streamed for free via the team website.

  4. Rednat

    i don’t know, I look at all these reds players and they seem the same to me. You look at Senzel, India, Reynolds,Almora, Fraley, Friedl, Barrero, Lopez, Steer, Fairchild, Siani. They all can play multiple positions which very adequately which is nice a I guess. They all seem to have some speed but basically looked lost and timid when they get on base, like they really don’t know what they are doing out there.

    And most of the time these guys look overmatched at the plate. they all seem to have a similar “close your eyes and swing for the fences” swing.( Lopez seems to be an exception so far).

    I assume the other guys from the trades and the guys in the minors right now are the same way. I just think it is the trend in baseball right now. Y ou have to have older veteran position players to be competitive and they are just far too expensive right now for the reds. The good news is that these older guys WILL eventually retire with nobody really that good to replace them so eventually the reds will be competitive again but that will probably be a few years off.

    In the meantime I think next year will be all bout getting Joey through the finish line with some dignity and respect. I think Bell is the best manager for that. They seem to have a mutual respect for another. Then the reds may give Bell a year or 2 to see what he can do in the “post Votto” era. hopefully by then the teams in the divison will be more evenly matched when Guys like Molina , Puljos,Yellich, McCutchen retire and we can have some brighter days!

    • LarkinPhillips

      If we have another season like this and that extend Bell for two more “post votto” seasons, my Reda Fandom of 35+ years will come to an end. I honestly think he should be fired after this year, but I don’t think it would have made a difference who the manager was this year.

      • Votto4life

        When the Reds didn’t fire David Bell after the 3-22 start it was clear to me that ownership didn’t care about winning. I don’t hate David Bell. But when you are 19 games below .500 after just 22 games, the manager gets fired. Plain and simple.

        Looking back, I wonder if David Bell would have signed onto this mess when the Red’s approached him about managing here. I’m sure working with his dad appealed to him. But it’s hard to see him every again landing a major league manager’s post. M

        Now, I suppose David Bell will finish out his current contract or at least most of it.

    • Steven Ross

      Not sure I can take two more LONG years with Bell. In fact, I’m not really looking forward to one more year of him.

      • Votto4life

        Steven, David Bell is only under contract through next season. Unless of course, the Reds extend him again.

  5. GreatRedLegsFan

    The season started ugly and it’s ending uglier.

    • TR

      Ugly: an excellent word to describe the Red’s 2022 season. Here’s hoping for positive moves in the offseason, especially in regard to leadership from ownership.

      • Doc

        They were not ready to start the season on time, and they are too ready to finish the season ahead of time.

  6. CI3J

    I literally don’t care how many the Reds lose in these remaining 10 games. The point is, they actually made some good trades and there might actually be a glimmer of hope for the future.

    2023 will tell the story. If they let the kids play, then 2023 should be an interesting season that will probably be a struggle to finish .500, but will provide a clearer view of the future. But if they bring in a bunch of retreads and has-beens and we never see any of the talent in the minors sniff the big club, then I’m not sure if there’s any reason to watch or care about this team.

  7. Mark Moore

    Perfect headline. We’re doing our part for Bernie.

  8. Hotto4Votto

    I’m glad guys like Friedl, Fairchild, Lopez, Steer, Siani, and Barrero are getting time and opportunity now. I hope it continues into 2023 while hopefully also seeing some others mixed in (EDLC, McLain, CES, etc). It’s valuable, not only in showing us who will step up to the occasion, but also in showing the guys what they need to work on. These guys getting time now will have a leg up this off-season when they begin working on adjustments to be more successful big leaguers.

    • steven ross

      I had serious doubts Barrero will ever hit. He looks lost. I hope he figures it out but don’t be surprised if the Reds move on from him at SS.

      • Jim Walker

        He certainly didn’t look lost at AAA during the 2021 season. Maybe a couple of months away then some pre camp work will have him ready to go in better form come 2023. But I think he has “earned” starting 2023 at AAA versus with the Reds.

        All in all I view him as a cautionary tale for the Reds with all the highly rated prospects coming through the system.

        First, never count on results until they are actually produced in the majors.

        Secondly, a when highly rated prospect is at the top level of the minors and looking like he is totally ready to move up (Barrero in 2021), move him up and put him into the everyday MLB lineup; or, alternately flip them while their stock is high for a big return. I strongly believe that just as there are “windows” for a team to step up and compete, there are windows in player development when a guy must be moved ahead or face an increased risk of never reaching his potential.

      • Pete

        Looking at the Reds as objectively as I can as a fan, the starting 8 probably need a complete overhaul with ironically enoughthe possible exception of Jose Barrero.

        Jonathan India is rated dead or near last in defense for 2B, both this year and 2021. His dWar in 2021 was -6.5 the next lowest was -3.4. This season it’s -4.5 and he is ranked 47 of 50. Where else can he play and atleast be adequate in the field, maybe 3B, 1B or LF? Will his bat justify any of these positions? Because of his seeming leadership skills and no questioned makeup, I was all for a long term extension but would it be wise?

        Tyler Stephenson? Can a 6’4″ catcher survive physically in MLB? Even if he can is maybe ~400 AB’s enough for a player of his hitting capability? The Reds need Tyler to be in the lineup everyday if this means a position change, they should make it. To me, he looks like a number 3 or 4 hitter probably the only guy currently on the club.

        I mention Barrero as possibly the only keeper because his FanGraphs Future Value (FV) has him at 55 which is very, very high. He is strong in all catageories execept hit skill and that is still at an acceptable level even at his projection. He must stop swinging at everything under the sun – an orgainzational problem as we all know. In comparision India is at a FV or 45 and Tyler is 50.

        I would start by overhauling the organization’s player development personal – I don’t think they are very good and I believe recent history backs that up. There is a lot of talent, raw and otherwise, in the system and it can’t be wasted. 2023 is a very imporatnt year in this regard. I accept the fact the Reds will not win as many games as we wish next year but how does the team, and orgnaiztion on the whole, progress from April to September. This is the real question to keep an eye on.

      • Hotto4Votto

        Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. That’s what this final third of the season and the majority of next season should be about, finding that out.

        Things I know about Barrero: He hit at every level on the way up. In 2019 at A+ he posted a 131 wRC+ as a 21 year old in a hitter friendly league. After missing most of the season of in-game development (he got 68 PA after being rushed to the big leagues in 2020) he came out and posted a 135 and 158 wRC+ at AA and AAA respectively. He then received very inconsistent playing time and was asked to learn an entirely new position at the ML level while also being asked to do this as the Reds chased a playoff spot as a 23 year old. Then this spring he broke his hamate bone in his wrist and hasn’t hit at all this year, in AAA or in the majors.

        Is the book written on Barrero? I don’t think so. Barrero has shown he can hit at the highest levels of the minors. The injury is a plausible explanation for his offensive downturn. That’s not to say there’s not other adjustments to make, but he does seem to be working with the coaching staff to make those adjustments. Even now, after playing fairly regularly, he’s only accumulated 271 PA in parts of three seasons. That’s less than half a full season’s worth and it’s been sporadic and at inopportune times.

        There’s a possibility that he won’t ever hit. That’s a good possibility for any prospect, the odds are stacked against them. Should the Reds write him off when they haven’t written off Senzel or Aquino (yet) who have had far more chances? 2023 isn’t going to be a competitive year, it’s going to be a sorting year. Let Barrero continue to play and get opportunities. If he’s still struggling by July next season, then consider a change.

  9. Still a Red

    Hah, Bell doesn’t really have any choice but to play the youngsters.

    • Jim Walker

      Bell has only recently turned 50 himself. He may be taking swings in the cage and at BP to see if he is good to go himself to get some increased veteran presence into the lineup 😉

    • Pete

      Well he has managed to stick Reynolds back in the lineup today so as long as Bell has options he’ll find a way I guess.

      • Jim Walker

        Guessing here that Fraley and Solano are both not available and Barrero is too undesirable? Wonder why no Siani?

  10. west larry

    Washington, Baltimore and Anaheim have announced their teams for sale. Bob and Phil, why don’t you join your cronies and put the reds up for sale? You would be doing the city, team and fans a big favor.
    I don’t like what I see behind Stevenson as major league catchers. Make your first three draft picks catchers this upcoming draft. Extend India and Stevenson, along with Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft while you can still afford it. I hope Fairchild, Lopez, Friedl and Barrius are given until the all-star break as starters to see if they belong.

    • Doc

      You don’t like what you see behind TS, but those include multiple draft picks so you want to fix the problem by drafting more catchers because the ones you drafted aren’t good?

      My head is hurting from banging it against the wall. I know, I’ll stop it from hurting by banging it against a different wall.

      • west larry

        Okay, I may have gone overboard by saying use your first three draft choices to find a future catcher…. I am really frustrated watching the backup catchers. They have many problems, but the reds need to prioritize the catching position, especially if Stevenson is moved off his catching role.

  11. Kevin H

    What are the numbers behind the Era mean? More analytical nonsense?

    Keep the game simple. Before we know it robots will be pitching cause analytical stats say so. LOL

  12. Jim Walker

    Early Sunday Reds lineup has been posted. Friedl and Lopez are the only 2 LH bats against Freddy Peralta.

    I don’t see any significant indication of reverse handedness splits in Peralta’s 2022 stats, so I’m wondering if Fraley is unavailable.

    Despite a 2 and 3 hit game for Fraley since he was beaned, his numbers since are well off his seasonal rates. Some examples (seasonal/ since beaned)> OPS .792/.593; wRC+ 114/57; K% 22.1/39.3; BB% 10.6/3.6.

    Also of interest in Sunday’s Reds lineup is Fairchild getting the CF assignment instead of Friedl who is in LF (AA in RF).

    • BK

      Of our “F-Troop”, I believe Fairchild is the best defensively, mostly due to his arm. Hoping he plays every day.