Cincinnati grabbed an early lead but it didn’t even last an inning before the Brewers tied the game up and eventually took a lead that they would never relinquish as Milwaukee topped the Reds 5-3 on Friday night and send the home team to their 92nd loss of the year.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers (81-70) |
5 | 11 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds (59-92) | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| W: Perdomo (3-0) L: Cessa (4-4) SV: Williams (14) |
|||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Offense
Cincinnati’s offense got the game started right as Jonathan India led off the bottom of the 1st with a walk, Spencer Steer followed up with a single, and then they both scored when Kyle Farmer doubled on a line drive down the left field line to put the Reds on top 2-0. Cincinnati would get two walks after that in the inning, but a fly out would end the inning with no more damage done. In the 3rd inning the Reds would get back-to-back 1-out singles but two strikeouts ended the inning.
Cincinnati didn’t get much going again on offense until the bottom of the 8th when they were trailing 5-2. Aristides Aquino walked and Stuart Fairchild followed up with a single. Alejo Lopez grounded into a force out at second, but the throw to first on the double play attempt was nowhere near the bag and led to Aquino scoring from second and Lopez advancing to second base. That cut the lead for Milwaukee to 5-3. Needing to score two runs to tie the game up or three for the win, the Reds had to face Devin Williams in the bottom of the 9th and he struck out the side to end any idea of a comeback on Friday night.
The Pitching
Luis Cessa wasn’t scheduled to start on Friday night, but the Reds placed Mike Minor on the injured list earlier in the day and Cessa returned to the rotation. He walked the leadoff batter, but was able to get three fly outs to end the inning. After Cincinnati grabbed a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st, Cessa couldn’t hold that lead in the next inning as a 1-out walk was followed by a single and a double that plated two runs to tie the game up. The Brewers would get back to it in the 5th after back-to-back singles led off the inning and a run crossed the plate on a force out on an attempted double play that gave Milwaukee a 3-2 lead. That would be the final pitch thrown for Cessa as Fernando Cruz entered the game for the final out of the 5th – a strikeout of Luis Urias.
Cruz returned and pitched a shutout 6th inning before Buck Farmer took over for the Reds in the 7th. He ran into trouble when the Brewers put together a 1-out rally with a walk, single, and then a 2-run double by Andrew McCutchen that extended their lead to 5-2. Ian Gibaut had to work around two hits in the 8th, but he did just that to keep the score the same as when he entered the game. After the Reds got one of the runs back to make it 5-3 it was Hunter Strickland’s turn to pitch and he tossed a shutout top of the 9th that ended on a strikeout of Victor Caratini on a slider that hit him in the knee. Cincinnati’s offense couldn’t get the job done in the bottom of the inning as they dropped their second in a row to the Brewers on this homestand.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds
Saturday September 24th, 6:40pm ET
Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.12 ERA) vs Graham Ashcraft (5-3, 3.97 ERA)
11 to go. Going to be tough to reach 102. Still 3rd place, even sweeping the last 6 from the Cubs is looking unlikely. Come on off season.
Four more wins are looking harder and harder to come by in order to avoid that #100. The “Big Three” back in the rotation may save that from happening although it’s hard to win if you don’t score many runs no matter who’s pitching.
Start 3-22, lose 100 games. I predict Bell gets an extension. And maybe they retain Minor & Strickland. They have become an absurdity, so predicting the next ridiculous thing they do is actually entertaining. The crazier the better.
You forgot to keep the bullpen intact for next season also.
+1000
Starting to think the Reds really are gonna lose 100 or more because I noting it seems it doesn´t matter to anybody in the team, it just related to end the season no matter if it is a win or a loss… Barrero is pathetic and while he is playing the team loses… The lineup is so vulnerable with Aquino, Barrero , Romine/Robinson and India who is struggling a bit too…
The only way to win a game counting on that offense is the pitching throwing a gem so hoping a 1-0 or 2-1, max 3-2 score…
Is the draft pick lottery like other sports where the last place finish gets the most chances and incrementally less the higher the finish? If that is the case maybe finishing third would not be that positive.
Affirm. Fangraphs projects 98 loss season and 5th worst record resulting in 10% lottery odds. It looks like 4th worst is possible but the worst 3 with best loytery odds seem set: Nats, A’s and the Yinzers
The 3 worst records all have the same % chance of getting the top pick (16.5% each)
As I type the Reds are in 5th worse (10% chance of 1st pick).
They are 3.5 games better than 3rd (the nearest 16.5% slot) and 3.5 games worse than 6th (7.5% chance).
The Tigers (4th worst record, 13.5% chance of 1st pick) are only half a game worse than the Reds. So, the odds appear to favor the Reds finishing with the 4th or 5th worst record. However with 1st six picks being chosen by the lottery, the Reds mathematical floor pick appears to be 10th or 11th.
I’m hoping for a top 5 draft pick. But I’ll take a top 10. That would give us 3 drafts in a row that would presumably be well ranked.
I am rusty (to say the least) on crunching derivations of probabilities but with an 80.25% chance of the 1st pick coming from in the 6 worst, it seems like the odds of any of those 6 teams dropping more than a couple of spots are really long.
Parent club still in the race for a wild card slot. Crunch time.
Yep, not much left to play for if that isn’t obvious from the effort on the field or lack thereof. No chance for 3rd place but 2nd worst record in the 162 game era (54-98) still able to be avoided if anyone cares. Louisville is still keeping pace with the Reds at 57-89 for whatever that means. They are in the vortex also with no chance of touching the all time worst record (the 2012 season of 51-93 courtesy of David Bell) but maybe they have a better future once we return most of their players. Don’t know if we should expect a post mortem or another hopeful epithet from the front office. Maybe they will surprise us (not likely) but at least relieve us by dribbling out all the players who won’t be on next year’s team. Meanwhile, we now have a core of very good starting arms and still no outfield to speak of. What else did we learn from this season of Red’s baseball?
2015 record is 64-98 of course.
Doug was looking through Reds minor league records yesterday and tweeted that Louisville has not had a winning or even a .500 season since 2011, the year before Bell was manager there. Ahead of that, Louisville had a run of 6 consecutive winning seasons under manager Rick Sweet.
All the other current Reds affiliates have had at least a .500 season since 2020. Daytona was the furthest of them removed from an outright winning season (2018).
All stats here via @dougdirt24 aka Doug Gray.
https://twitter.com/dougdirt24/status/1573349162128654336
Of the Reds 62 managers since 1882, Bell has moved to #13 on games managed. Of those above him, only Bryan Price has a losing record. On games under .500, he’s tied for 10th worse, again still trails Price. And on winning percentage, he comes in at #38, trailing even Rose, Knight, and Narron. In five seasons, coaching minor league teams, he never had a winning record. His best record was with Carolina in the Southern League, when the team went 65-74 (.468). So how long does the Reds front office double down on nepotism and pretend that Bell knows how to manage. There’s a lot of young players and prospects whose careers will be hampered by the team’s development strategies and bad management.
Perhaps the inverse of the theory that Dusty Baker always seems to win because teams with good players are the teams that hire him???
Perhaps, but contrary to the popular book, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I point to things like Ward tinkering with Senzel’s hitting and Bell moving him around to different positions. Couple all that with his fragility, then there goes the #2 pick in the draft. The only way, we fans will ever know the answer is if the Reds fired the management and started over. And that’s not going to happen.
I will say, from what I’ve read, that the players like David Bell. Unfortunately likability does not necessarily translate into wins. Often it’s the opposite.
Dusty, even with good players, doesn’t win much in the playoffs which was why he was fired. He will get you there more often than not. If a team has Baker for a manager maybe it would be wise to let someone else manage the playoffs. Kind of like the best of both worlds. 🙂
Like maybe, but do they respect him? Most of us have had a boss we liked drinking a cold one with, but hated how they ran things. I know I have.
Thanks, Jim, I was vaguely aware of that. It is also interesting that the Carolina Mudcats AA team played in the 2008 finals of their league and were then subsequently brought into the Red’s organization. However, the next 3 years were all losing seasons under manager David Bell. At that point, the Reds divested from the team as it was downgraded to A+ and David Bell was then sent to manage the Bats to the 51-93 record previously mentioned.
Thank Doug. 😉
I know the two websites are Doug’s day job but still, I am always amazed at how he generates so much good content on a consistent basis.
So the Reds hiring Bell is akin to them trading for Minor, and castoffs like Humbree, Doolittle, Strickland, Anderson, Zeuch, etc.?
And Bell continuing to run Minor, Strickland or Hembree out there despite the losses?
Familiar. Cheap. Don’t raise a fuss.
I have a feeling that losing 100 games won’t mean a thing to Bell or the Reds ownership.
Bell will drone on some platitudes to the complacent press corps and muddle on into the offseason.
Muddling on won’t get him fired.
A second 3-22 start in a row might, but that’s not likely.
7-16, 10-22, 15-31 all will mean job security for Bell.
This isn’t the team Bell signed on to run nor the boss (Williams) he signed on to work for/ with nor the organizational roster building philosophy he thought he would be working with.
Looking at the organization when Bell signed on, he could have reasonably seen a path to become Pres/VP of baseball operations under Dick Williams as overall CEO. Then blood turned out to be thicker than water and money, DW was gone, and Phil C was the obvious CEO in waiting with Nick Krall the head honcho of baseball ops.
Maybe Bell will surprise us all and be the guy to break the cycle because of the complacency above him in the food chain? We can always hope.
The only questions I have: does Krall have the authority to fire Bell and any deadwood throughout the organization as far as player development goes? As far as the direction of the organization, I couldn’t be more pleased with his approach. But that being said if they don’t develop the talent they have, which seems to be considerable, it will all be for not.
My biggest problem with Bell is his a apparent unwillingness to put veteran guys on the bench so as many youngsters can play as possible. Stuart Fairchild and Lopez are great cases in point.
They not only need to develop the talent, they also need to be able to make timely correct decisions on who to keep and get under contract early on through arbitration/ several years of potential FA and who to flip to keep refreshing the pool. Finally, there has to be a willingness to judiciously sign free agents to fill gaps they haven’t filled internally.
@ Jim, would you look to extend India this off-season and buy out say 2-3 of his FA seasons and sign him to 7 year extension? I think I would simply because the price would be cheap AAV, he wouldn’t break the bank and he ‘s a solid righty bat and fan favorite and you get him in his prime.
I have followed the Reds since 1971 and I can say with out hesitation. This organization stinks. I can not watch or listen any more.
Just another disappointing and painful loss. Winning 4 more to avoid 100 losses seems like an even fainter hope than at the start of this series. yes, it’s only the Pie-rats and Stupid Cubs for the final stretch, but still …
I was also wondering if any of the games next week get rained out and we aren’t able to double-up, do they just get cancelled? They are inconsequential at this point for the teams involved. I know there is one off day and the distance between Pittsburgh, Cincy, and Chicago isn’t that big. But I can’t think MLB wants anybody playing “regular” games once the post-season begins.
Hoping we can take one of today or tomorrow and inch us a little closer. Sad that 99 losses is actually a “goal” this year, but given the deep hole to start the year, it all kind of fits.
Past precedent is that there would be games simply canceled if the weather intervenes. Looking back through historical final standings tables, it is not that unusual to see half game differences among teams not in playoff contention which is indicative of games not played.
Look no further than 2021:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-standings.shtml
The Braves won the NL East with only 161 games played. Everybody else in the division played the full 162 which makes all the “games back” column numbers be X.5. For the record, it looks like the game the Braves did not play was against the Rockies who finished 74-67, far from playoff consideration.
uh…… Rockies finished 74-87 for those paying attention to the math 😉
Tropical storm Ian is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane and hit Florida mid week. Probably up the East coast though and not Midwest.