The Cincinnati Reds (58-89) will welcome the Boston Red Sox (71-75) tonight at 6:40 PM to Great American Ballpark for the first time since 2017. The Reds are just 2-13 all-time in regular season games against the Red Sox. One of those wins came this year at Fenway Park in Boston behind a dominant start from Luis Castillo. The last time the Reds beat the Red Sox in Cincinnati was on June 13, 2008, behind seven shutout innings from Aaron Harang, and home runs from Jay Bruce and Adam Dunn off Justin Masterson.

The Red Sox have had a disappointing season by their standards. Coming into the season, the Red Sox were projected to win 86 games, which would have put them in the postseason. They have dealt with a lot of pitching injuries. To the Red Sox credit, despite being out of the race, they are 8-7 in September with a +20 run differential.

Two of the biggest struggles for both of these teams has been their bullpen. The Reds bullpen has actually improved significantly in the second half of the season. The Reds bullpen has a 3.39 ERA in the second half (3rd best in the NL). Reds relievers have pitched the 5th most innings in MLB in the 2nd half (212.2 IP) and have the 4th best fWAR in MLB (2.6). The Red Sox bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the second half. They have a 5.52 ERA (30th in MLB). They do have a 4.00 FIP and 4.24 xFIP, so they might not have been as bad as the ERA suggests, but it has been rough for the Red Sox pen of late.

Starting Pitchers


Nick Lodolo has been some kind of roll. Over his last 3 starts, he has 31 strikeouts and just 1 walk (2.21 ERA/1.78 FIP). He absolutely looks the part of a future ace. He will have a good test tonight, as the Red Sox have a 113 wRC+ vs LHP this season (9th best in MLB). Lodolo has a 5.40 ERA in 3 inter-league games starts this season.


Brayan Bello was the #24 ranked prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America in their 2022 mid-season update. Bello started this year in AA, where he dominated with a 1.69 ERA/2.85 FIP in 7 starts. He got promoted to AAA in May, and has pitched well there too with a 2.76 ERA/2.64 FIP in 10 starts. Bello has been up and down from the big leagues three times this year with some early struggles. Since he got promoted back to the big league club on August 24th, he has pitched very well. Bello has a 2.84 ERA/2.16 FIP over his last 5 starts. One of the most impressive stats with Bello is that he has not allowed a home run in 42.1 innings so far in his big league career. This will be quite the week for him to try to keep that up: tonight at GABP and then on Sunday Night Baseball against Aaron Judge.

Bello’s sinker and fastball average 96 MPH, but his changeup has been his best pitch. Hitters have a .153 expected batting average against his changeup. His hardest thrown pitch of the season was 98.7 MPH.


Starting Lineups

Tommy Pham has hit .246/.319/.384 with a 102 wRC+ hitting mostly leadoff for the Red Sox since being traded by the Reds.

News and Notes

-Graham Ashcraft will be returning to the Reds rotation soon.

Reds #2 ranked prospect by most publications, Noelvi Marte homered today from Spain in the World Baseball Qualifier.

-Tommy Pham is back and is still talking about fantasy football

Conclusion

Brayan Bello has yet to allow a big league home run. The Reds have not been a great home run hitting team this season, but this game will be played at Great American Ballpark. How about the Redlegs give Bello a nice welcome to GABP and the Reds get their first win against the Red Sox in Cincinnati since 2008? Go Reds!

111 Responses

  1. Melvin

    One of our “Big Three” Lodolo is pitching so we have a chance. 🙂

    Reply
    • David

      At least it’s not the “little two”. 🙂

      But frankly, Cessa has pitched (overall) pretty well in his last 4 starts.

      Boston typically eats left handed pitching alive (the Green Monster in Fenway), but we shall see tonight.

      Reply
  2. Rednat

    I don’t understand the advanced stats. But I do see we are batting 239 as a team and have 54 stolen bases. Not sure how many home runs but I am sure it is well below 100. Not sure how you win with these stats. I know people are excited about the pitching but our offense has to improve a lot for us to be competitive again. Hopefully with the rule changes and some young talent coming up in the minors we can develop a well balanced offensive attack. Haven’t had a truly balanced offense since the 99 team. That team hit over 200 homers had 160 stolen bases and team batting average in the 270s. I think we have to get back to those numbers if we are going to win again

    Reply
    • LDS

      The Castellini Reds don’t care about winning. That’s pretty obvious. And besides ’99 was just over 20 years ago. We have time before the Reds are as futile as the Sox or Cubs once were.

      Reply
    • Chris

      Yes, I could do with putting standard stats up. Also, anyone know what the asterisks stand for?

      Reply
      • Mark Moore

        +10,000

        Put them both up for those of us who see the advanced stats as an eye chart.

  3. Mark Moore

    Let’s take this first one from a BoSox team that hasn’t lived up to their press release. Everybody wave at Tommy Pham 😀

    Here’s to another great outing by Lodolo!

    Reply
  4. Bet on Red

    was that “must bat third” tommy pham batting first?

    Reply
  5. Mark Moore

    If he starts out with the nibbling after his last couple of outings, that’s a regression in my book. Throw strikes, Nick.

    Reply
  6. Mark Moore

    OK, that’s a better finish to the inning. K’s and weak contact.

    Reply
  7. Mark Moore

    And Nick’s HBP count continues to rise. After getting ahead 0-2 … SMH Extra Hard Again

    Reply
  8. Daytonnati

    Props to Sadak tonight. He knows not to interrupt Votto and Larkin riffing.

    Reply
  9. Mark Moore

    Nice to see Donnie Barrels get one … especially after the Chumpire called that first strike

    Reply
  10. SOQ

    I’ve always enjoyed the perspective of former players in the booth. I have to admit, (and I’m probably in the minority here), I never really warmed up to Marty, having grown up listening to Waite Hoyt call the games. Mighta been the big hair thing

    Reply
    • Daytonnati

      And that is the story of the 2022 Cincinnati Reds.

      Reply
  11. Mark Moore

    Massively disappointing inning. Small victory in running up the pitch count a bit. But failure to execute kills us again.

    Reply
  12. Bet on Red

    bases loaded no outs….. no runs… so ready for the season to be over

    Reply
  13. VaRedsFan

    Kyle doing OK in the wife department…as most players do.

    Reply
  14. RedsGettingBetter

    Bases loaded but the paperbats were struckouts. Reds are going no where with Senzel and Barrero in 2023 if they continues their pathetic poor performances…

    Reply
    • Ryan

      Lance Mc Allister will still be slobbering over their greatness

      Reply
  15. Old-school

    Senzel and Barrero have had opportunities in 2022 and there are more questions at the end of 2022 than in spring training. Cardinals sent star rookie Gorman back to AAA( Cardinal way)for horrific September and 2nd half 37% strike out rate. See what the Cards do when players strike out 37% of the time and compromise winning? They go to AAA. There is a standard. Cards understand no players help you win at 37% K rates.

    Reply
    • VaRedsFan

      I agree with the premise, play poorly, get sent down. But the teams are in 2 different situations. One is battling for playoffs, one is not. The playoff teams can’t afford a weak link. The Reds can use the the opportunity to evaluate guys.

      Factor #2 – The Cards probably have someone at AAA that might do better. The Reds don’t.

      Reply
      • Old-school

        37% K rates are a non-starter

        No additional data needed

        At any level

        You cant hit . Go back to the hitting tunnel

      • VaRedsFan

        That’s fine if you are prepared to live with Matt Reynolds playing SS.
        Then you’d have no data on the young guy. Now you do.

        The hitting tunnels and coaches are more equipped to help a player at GABP rather than Louisville.

  16. SOQ

    So, the Reds don’t score with the bases loaded and no outs, but Sox score 2 on a freak injury with 2 out. Sounds like a Reds game

    Reply
  17. wallyum

    Darn. Senzel hurt on that play at the wall. And just after he looked so good on that bases loaded strikeout last inning.

    Reply
  18. PTBNL

    I hope Aquino was playing near the RF line because Friedl had to come a LONG way from LF to throw the ball back in from right center. Aquino should have been closer to the ball than that in backing up the play.

    Nick made a good effort. Hoepfully he is not dinged too bad/

    Reply
  19. MK

    Think a team would give a dozen new and a dozen used balls for Senzel. Might take an old Fungo bat instead of used ball, as long as it is held together by just one nail and tape.

    Reply
    • Kevin H

      He hustles and plays the game hard. I take that over a player who doesn’t back up on a play.. Aquino

      Reply
  20. SOQ

    Just saw that Maury Wills has passed. His was a coveted card in my youth

    Reply
  21. Dennis Westrick

    Besides the epic failure to score a single run with the bases loaded and NO Outs, what’s up with this Reds pitching staff issuing what seems like a walk an inning! Runs up the pitch count to the magic 100 pitches which Bell has determined NO pitcher shall pass! Frustrating team to follow when we can’t score in an obvious scoring situation plus high pitch counts that assure the starter will likely not pitch late into the game!

    Reply
    • Doc

      Have the Reds never pitched their way out of a bases loaded, no outs situation? And if they have, do you applaud the pitcher for bearing down and getting out of the inning? I suspect that is what Sox fans were doing. You are just complaining about baseball in general because these things happen throughout the year. Slow pitch softball would be different, but this is not slow pitch softball where the batter has considerable control over what he does.

      Reply
  22. Mark Moore

    Back from my walk. Greeted with us being down 2-1 and Lodolo not pitching in as sharp or efficient a manner as the last three outings. It happens … I guess.

    Reply
  23. Dennis Westrick

    Lodolo does not have it tonight! Bring on the Fun Bunch, better known as the bullpen!

    Reply
  24. Mark Moore

    Nice K then GIDP to get out of that mess. Extra nice that Pham hit into it 😀

    Reply
  25. Old-school

    This team cant hit. Winker and Castellanos are gone.
    Votto is hurt and old. Stephenson is hurt. India 4-33 and AWOL. Farmer is 0-15 and 32. Aquino is 0-13 with 6 K’s and strikes out 37% of the time and hasn’t hit in 4 years. It might be time to admit the Reds current roster as its constructed cant hit and new blood is needed. Krall needs to spend money on 2 -3 hitters until the AA/A guys mature. This is the worst hitting team I’ve ever seen.

    Arguing over barrero and Aquino and Senzel is silly. None of them can hit in 2022. Barrero is 24 so dont quit on him .

    Reply
    • Doc

      Friedl is new blood.
      Fairchild is new blood.
      Barerro is new blood.
      Steer is new blood.
      Lopez is new blood.
      Robinson is new blood.

      Reply
      • Old-school

        Talking Legit everyday players. Steer may be. Barrero has a tough year ahead of him to get back in that conversation. Otherwise arguing about 4th or 5th OF. Lopez might be a good 26th guy. Reds need Franchise hitters.Silver Sluggers. All Stars. They had 2 AS OF last year.

      • LDS

        Remember, Winker killed RH’ers, but couldn’t hit lefties. I have lots of criticisms of the FO and the field management, but trading Winker isn’t one of them. Nor Suarez, for that matter.

    • LDS

      You do realized that prior to the last series, Aquino was the hottest bat on the team?

      Reply
      • Kevin H

        Trading winker and Suarez were terrible moves by front office..

        Dunn isn’t good and Fraley, well to be continued

      • LDS

        It’s not the trading of Winker and Suarez that is the issue. It’s not getting a decent return. Note, I said I agreed with trading them. I did not say Krall did a good job or that he got a decent return.

      • TR

        For me, trading Winker and Suarez was not the main issue for this season. Trades are a part of the game. No action, from top management to shakeup the Reds after the 3-22 start, is the issue for the fading 2022 season.

  26. Mark Moore

    And the squandered innings come back to bite us in the heine.

    Reply
  27. Kevin H

    Can someone explain to me why Friedl came running from left field to get the ball after Senzel crashed into the wall. The ball going into right center field.

    Where was Aquino? Napping?

    Reply
  28. Dennis Westrick

    This 2022 Reds team lacks in basic baseball fundamentals, from running the bases, hitting behind runners, backing each other up in the outfield, executing sacrifice bunts and on and on!

    Reply
    • Mark Moore

      See, that’s the kind of stuff I tend to lay at the feet of DTBell and his coaching staff. I know the players have to execute, but seeing this much sloppy and inconsistent play on that front makes me wonder. ?

      Reply
      • Kevin H

        10000%

        Aquino not backing up kinda puts that in our faces I think

        It’s not just that one play…

      • Mark Moore

        The players are not off the hook in my book either. So does that mean they are not “capable” of taking the coaching? (asking for a friend)

  29. Kevin H

    Dusty baker in the playoffs again with Astros. A great manager who wins. Reds made a mistake getting rid of him.

    Reply
  30. Dennis Westrick

    And, as I predicted, Bell removes Lodolo after 5 innings and 92 pitches! The 3 walks and one hit batter prevented Lodolo from pitching at least one if not 2 more innings! Nonetheless, if the offense can only generate one run it doesn’t matter who’s on the mound for the Reds!

    Reply
  31. Kevin H

    Moreta could be a big cog next season. If I remember correctly he had one bad month that ballooned his era…

    Reply
  32. Kevin H

    @lds true…

    I just didn’t like the trade. Especially when you had team control in Winker and Suarez in middle of a big contract. Time will tell though as I mentioned Fraley has potential but time will tell.

    Reply
    • LDS

      @KevinH, the problem is that Fraley has worse L/R splits than Winker and isn’t a particularly good defender. But, water under the bridge. We fans are stuck with mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

      Reply
  33. Old-school

    Farmer 4-27 and year OPS threatening below .700
    India 3-25 and year OPS same
    Aquino 5-26 and year OPS .612

    Fraley only regular hitter over .800 OPS

    Reply
  34. VaRedsFan

    Votto can come into the booth whenever he wants, but please don’t let him do play by play anymore.

    Reply
    • Mark Moore

      It’s a little wooden and forced, to be sure. When he’s doing color analysis he’s bangin’ … 😮

      Reply
    • Melvin

      Would you rather Sadak do it? The Cowboy, when he first started, was pathetic. Now he’s the best we got.

      Reply
      • VaRedsFan

        Agree about Cowboy.
        Yes…Sadak over Joey as of Sept 2022

  35. Kevin H

    Moreta 4 strike outs and 1 hit. On 24 pitches. He is gone. Next pitcher can’t throw strikes and walks 2 batters.

    I know Moreta had 24 pitches, and who knows if his arm is tired, however seems like he had better control than this pitcher.

    But hey where u gonna go

    Reply
      • Kevin H

        For a relief pitcher it is alot when you factor in warming up. Plus who knows if he was running out of gas. All possibilities. Just seemed to me though he was in the zone.

  36. Dennis Westrick

    The Reds would do well to heed the “talk” the manager of the Durham Bulls gave his struggling team in the movie Bull Durham. I believe the line was “This is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.”

    Reply
    • Kevin H

      But we know it ain’t that simple.

      Trying to hit a baseball, pick up the spin of a baseball and a matter of 1/4 of a second is amazing.

      Then pitching of said baseball and the ball coming g off the bat. Mlb is not as easy as it appears on tv.

      Reply
      • Joe Henry

        A few days ago a video of Luis Castillo showed up on my newsfeed. He threw a pitch with a 19 in late break! How is any batter going to hit that pitch? MLB is an incredibly difficult sport.

  37. Redsvol

    We’ve actually outhit the Reds 8 to 4 yet have scored 2 less runs. The play giving slow man JD Martinez a triple hurt. Also hurting is the 5 walks issued by Reds pitchers as opposed to 2 by the Red Sox.

    Walks will haunt you every time. That and the fact that the Red Sox actually have some hitters I have heard of. Farmer, Aquino, Senzel, Barerro and Romine are almost automatic outs. That leaves 4 guys to get us some runs. That is a lot of pressure on 4 players when 5 have almost no chance.

    I’d love to see Fairchild, Lopez, and Steer get the at bats rest of year that Farmer, Solano and Senzel are getting. Makes no sense to play those 3 the rest of the way.

    Reply
  38. Kevin H

    Of course Gibaut had thrown more pitches than Moreta. Trying to figure out Bell’s strategy is useless. Dude makes no sense.

    Reply
    • Dennis Westrick

      When you figure out Bell’s strategy for the relief pitching please let us know! I certainly can’t figure him out after 3 years!

      Reply
    • VaRedsFan

      Actually, it’s pretty simple. You are allowed to pitch exactly 1 inning….You can continue to pitch in the next inning as long as the guy batting is bats with the same hand you throw with

      Reply
  39. Mark Moore

    8 hits. EIGHT FREAKING HITS … and we only get one across. That’s the inconsistency and inability to execute that just sticks in my craw!

    Reply
    • Kevin H

      And walks too. Starting to think coaching philosophy is the problem. Analytics is how Bell manages and it doesn’t work.

      I mean we hardly ever see a hit and run, a bunt or squeeze play. A double steal.

      Mostly it seems base to base

      Reply
    • LDS

      Come on, the game is still in reach. It’s time for Strickland. As far as figuring out Bell: to paraphrase Jack Nicholson in “As good as it gets” – think of what you would do and take away all reason and accountability. Like bringing Strickland into a 2-run game and immediately give up a couple of runs. Bell is predictable in some scenarios. This was one.

      Reply
  40. Mark Moore

    And that’s a Clete for me. Shouldn’t be a surprise given it was Strickland. Back at it tomorrow … I guess …

    Night all.

    Reply
  41. Kevin H

    Man Bell is a clown… brings in Strickland and it happens again. My patience is gone with this dude. Why not Farmer or Diaz in the 9th. Strickland is terrible

    Reply
    • ryan

      Agree Kevin, you can’t be trying to win if you bring in Strickland

      Reply
    • LDS

      You answered your own question twice. And why is Strickland still in there despite being hit hard and given his pitch count!

      Reply
  42. Dennis Westrick

    Can always count on good old Strickland to turn a cliffhanger into an avalanche!

    Reply
  43. Dennis Westrick

    Only 10 more losses after tonight to reach that 100 loss milestone! Shameful!

    Reply
    • LDS

      Bell will likely be back next year regardless. So let’s go for 102 and erase the ‘82 Reds.

      Reply
    • Moon

      I do not think the Reds will quite make it 5o 100 loses. I am thinking they will end up with 98 loses.

      Reply
  44. LDS

    Bad bullpen management matters. Bell and Strickland brings it home for the Red Sox.

    Reply

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