Luis Cessa and the Cincinnati Reds bullpen were dominant on Sunday afternoon, holding the St. Louis Cardinals to just two hits in a 3-0 win in the season series finale.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (58-89) 3 10 1
St. Louis Cardinals (87-61)
0 2 0
W: Cessa (4-3) L: Montgomery (8-5) SV: Farmer (2)
Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

The Offense

Cincinnati got on the board in the top of the 3rd inning after Jose Barrero singled with one out and moved up to second when Jonathan India worked a 9-pitch walk. Spencer Steer then came through with a 2-out RBI single into center.

In the 5th inning the Reds were threatening again. Chuckie Robinson snapped an 0-25 streak with a 1-out double off of the wall in center. Jonathan India followed up with a walk to put two runners on for Cincinnati, but the next two batters struck out and left two men on. In the 6th inning the Reds came through as Stuart Fairchild followed a Nick Senzel single with a 2-run homer to extend the Reds lead to 3-0. The Reds threatened in the top of the 9th after back-to-back singles from Matt Reynolds and Jose Barrero, but a fly ball from Jonathan India and a perfect throw to the plate from Lars Nootbar led to an inning-ending double play.

The Pitching

Luis Cessa was getting the job done through the first two innings, but he ran into some trouble in the third with a little help from his defense. After retiring Yadier Molina to begin the inning, Cessa walked Nolan Gorman. A hard one hop ground ball towards Jose Barrero at shortstop got by him as he tried to grab it on the side of his body went down as a single. The next play saw Matt Reynolds bobble a grounder that could have been a double play and instead loaded the bases. Cessa clamped down and got another grounder and this time Barrero fielded it and flipped to Reynolds to turned and threw to first to complete the inning ending double play and keep the Reds in front 1-0. Cessa would retire six in a row over the next two innings to complete his day with 5.0 1-hit innings of shutout baseball.

Derek Law entered the game to start the 6th inning with a 3-0 lead. He had to work around a 1-out walk, but he came through without letting a ball leave the infield. Law returned for the 7th and picked up the first two outs of the inning with ease. But he walked Lars Nootbaar and then gave up a bloop single to Yadier Molina to bring the tying run to the plate. David Bell made a pitching change to bring in Joel Kuhnel to try and get out of the inning and it worked to perfection as he fired three straight fastballs by Nolan Gorman to end the inning and kept Cincinnati up 3-0. Kuhnel returned for the 8th inning and needed just 11 pitches to get through it unscathed. Buck Farmer came out to try and pick up the save, holding a 3-0 lead. Farmer needed just six pitches to record three outs as the Reds held on for the win.

Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday September 20th, 6:40pm ET

Brayan Bello (1-6, 5.10 ERA) vs Nick Lodolo (4-6, 3.81 ERA)

66 Responses

  1. Mark Moore

    A win against the WLB’s in their house after that marathon day yesterday feels pretty good. I say the boys can take the day off tomorrow 😀

  2. Dennis Westrick

    Nice win! At least Pujols didn’t get his 700th career HR against the Reds!

  3. TR

    The five game St. Louis series did not quite turn out as the disaster predicted. Cessa looks like a possible #5 starter for next season with his ability to keep the ball on the ground. The bullpen is looking better. With the Red’s potential, they’re not that far behind the Cardinals.

  4. Hanawi

    I’d like to see Fairchild get some regular playing time. He’s produced when he’s played but he’s only had like 30 at bats in the last month

    • DaveCT

      It’s good to see Fairchild getting to some of his power. His last year in college saw this, though with questions if he could carry it forward.

      I think the issue he’s facing is similar to when he was with us in the minors, that he’s somewhat redundant to others alongside him. With Senzel slugging .306, Fairchild may not be that dramatically different. And with Friedl and Fraley, too, though from the other side of the plate.

      • Hanawi

        Not sure how Fairchild and Senzel are anything alike. Fairchild is the better player from what I can see and has certainly has way more power. He has as many HRs in 57 at bats as Senzel does in 372. The problem he has is making contact.

      • DaveCT

        Separate the body types and both Fairchild and Senzel are light hitting outfielders, as much as that defies logic with Senzel.

      • DaveCT

        A bit more.

        Minor league career numbers
        Fairchild, 394 games: 273/.359/.446
        Senzel, 253 games: 308/.383/.499

        ML career numbers:
        Fairchild, 44 games: .228/.305/.458, .763 OPS
        Senzel, 272 games: .240/.304/.360, .664 OPS

      • Hanawi

        Senzel of the past is not the Senzel of today. He slugged .300 in almost 400 at bats. He is also an average OF with a well below average arm. They should DFA him. Fairchild has actual power.

      • DaveCT

        I think your take is pretty far off in a couple of places.

        First, it’s not a slight to say Fairchild and Senzel are redundant. That’s actually a complement to Fairchild, given his ML total of 44 games.

        Second, career minor league numbers split over hundreds of games CAN be a good indicator of what’s to come. That’s true of both guys here.

        Third, you describe Senzel as a mediocre outfielder. Sorry, Jesse Winker is a mediocre outfielder. Senzel is a satisfactory outfielder with a satisfactory arm. I personally would like to shift him back to the infield and even give him Votto’s job until Joey makes it back. But Senzel isn’t nearly as bad as you make him out to be.

        Last , no organization would DFA Nick Senzel. Not one. They would all do as the Reds have, which is continue to invest resources into helping this guy succeed more, while they have team control. A DFA is just not happening. Especially in an organization with so few major league players on the field after a huge rash of injuries.

        Again, that Senzel, Freidl, Fraley, Fairchild, even Ronnie Dawson at AAA are considered relatively equal (“redundant”) isn’t a bad thing. Depth is good. Lack of a true standout talent in the outfield is not a good thing, however.

        And that’s where we are.

      • AllTheHype

        @Dave, Kiki Hernandez is a comp for what Senzel has evolved to become, similar positional flexibility, similar offensive output….the Red Sox just recently extended Hernandez for $10M next year. That provides insight into Senzel’s value. For those thinking the Reds might DFA or non-tender him, no chance. He’s worth way more than he is making.
        Some posters don’t understand the value of a guy with positional flexibility, who also may still have upside in the tank.

      • Indy Red Man

        Kiki Hernandez lifetime OPS is .737 and Senzel’s is .663

        Kiki has seasons of 17, 20, and 21 HRs. Senzel can’t even hit double digits playing at Gabp. Most seasons he’s hurt most of the time.

        I see no comparison to Senzel except maybe to Jose Peraza. A scrub that can play a few positions (half donkey I might add) and just snags a paycheck until prospects eventually blow past him and they need the roster spot.

        2-3 years Senzel mania? Ok I got it, but didn’t agree. Now it should be apparent what he is. Should be playing 3B or replacing Joey? With 5 HRs? In Gabp? If the guy ever had a .925 OPS in a month then I GUARANTEE what happens next…..trips over a drain and goes on the IL for 3 months

    • Hotto4Votto

      I agree. Some have written Fairchild off, but I want to see him in the regular OF mix next season.

  5. Brad

    Great write up as usual Doug. You wrote “Luis Cessa and the Cincinnati Reds bullpen were dominant”. I don’t think I have seen you use the word “Bullpen” and “dominant” in the same sentence all year. I am sure you meant that Cessa was dominant and the bullpen didn’t collapse.

  6. Old-school

    Aquino played a legitimate MLB pitching staff. Cubs and Pirates arent MLB pitching staffs. It’s September so gotta look through blurry cataracts on outcomes with a grain of salt.
    What did Aquino do against a playoff team? 0-12 with 6 K’s last 3 games.

    Havent we seen this before? Billy Hamilton delusions all over again except Hamilton was actually a good player on a balanced team hitting in the 9 hole.

    • Harry Stoner

      In his last at bat Aquino saw 5 or 6 straight curveballs thrown to the exact same location on the plate.

      He couldn’t lay off them.
      He couldn’t foul them off.
      He couldn’t hit them.

      I’m wondering if he could even see them.

      This seems like it ought to be a fixable thing.

      How much longer does he want to let himself be embarassed like this?

    • Melvin

      hahaha You’re kind of leaving out him going 4-8 in the first two Cardinal games plus his performance against the Brewers aren’t you? He’s still a work in progress offensively and progressing for the most part nicely. Add that to the fact that there is no one with a better arm in the majors (probably none as good) and he has value to say the least.

      • Old-school

        @ melvin

        Youre conveniently leaving out his entire putrid hitting career

        But go ahead and pick 6 days out of 6 years if that works for you.

        Hes turning 29

        I really cant comment to people who say Aquino is the franchise RF as the Reds are at that bottom of a decade.

        Aquino is the Savior just like Billy Hamilton was. Good luck with that

      • Melvin

        I took a quick look and if I’m not mistaken Goldschmidt and Arenado had four hits in the five game series and Pujols had one. Happens to the best of them.

      • Oldtimer

        Old-school, remember hearing about Frank McCormick? He was 27 YO rookie in 1938 and NL MVP in 1940. Some develop later than others.

      • Pete

        Others who blossomed late: David Ortiz and Jose Bautista. I must say though when Arístides looks bad he looks really bad. He doesn’t want a 0 for 12 streak to turn into a 2 for 20.

    • Jimbo44CN

      Man you just hate on him, comparing him to Billy Hamilton! OMG come on.

      • Pete

        In defense of Old-Timer, right now Arístides much like Billy Hamilton is a novelty. This is his chance to overcome that and become a real every day ball player. The odds are stacked but the talent is there. We still have a couple of weeks to go to see.

      • Old-school

        I dont hate Aquino

        He plays hard

        I just want the Reds to win and hes not part of that equation

        Some people still think he is. I disagree with them

      • Melvin

        It’s certainly okay to disagree. It would be pretty boring if we all thought the same way.

  7. Steven Ross

    I doubt he’s in the mix for next season but Cessa has been a nice surprise. Getting better with every start. I also have faith in Law and Farmer. A rarity for bullpen guys.

  8. David

    This weekend was illuminating in many respects.

    The end of the weekend shows the Cardinals won the series 3 -2.
    That makes for a .600 winning percentage, which is actually about where the Cardinals are against the whole league (season) @ 0.588.
    The Reds were on the short end of this, with a 0.400 winning percentage over the weekend. Which, coincidently enough, is pretty close to their winning percentage against the rest of the league (0.395).
    A lot of people have said that the Reds are really close to being a .500 team this season, except for that abhorent start of 3-22.
    Yet, that WAS part of the season, and part of the reality of who the Reds were this season.
    They are who they are. Losing all four games against the Pirates was not saying they are a potentially good team (yet).
    Pitching wins games and wins pennants. The Reds are 13th out of 15 in ranking of Team ERA. Only the Rockies and Nationals are worse. Not surprisingly, the league is led by the Dodgers (1) , Braves (2) , Mets (3) and then the Cardinals (4). The Padres are 6th.
    Arguing who should be in the outfield next year, while not irrelevant, is secondary as to who should be pitching for the Reds next year. And really, it is hard for the typical fan, even the most well- informed, to judge that. We know who is really bad and who should go (Minor, Dugger, Strickland, etc), but it is hard to know how some of these guys, regardless of how bad their stats look at times, are really progressing, improving, not improving or just going backward.

    • Optimist

      Accurate summary – as to the pitching next year, given they need 1450+/- ip, this year they’ll get 300-325 from Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft, and that included injuries and almost surely some pitch count limits. So – next year, let’s expect 500 ip from those 3.

      And there’s the problem with moving up to the top 1/2 of the league in pitching – where do the remaining 1,000 ip come from? Sure it likely cannot get worse, but how will it get better? Lots of guys coming off injuries, and some promise in MiLB, but other than Diaz it seems there’s a lot more hope than expectation from the remainder of the staff.

      The consolation may be that moving up from 13th to say, 7th or 8th, is a noticeable improvement, and would likely put them within shouting distance of a .500 record, which also means they are within sight of a final wild card, but the real chances of that are even longer than this sentence and with more qualifications.

      As to the offense . . .

      • David

        Bronson Arroyo, the Reds turn their lonely eyes to you…..
        Bronson and Johnny Cueto were the LAST Reds starters ( I think) to consistently hit 200 IP per season.
        Realistically, the Reds need about 800 innings from starting pitching. 1000 IP from starters would be amazing.
        Starting pitching IP: some simple arithmetic
        162 games x 5 IP = 810 IP
        (this is likely scenario for 2023)
        162 games x 6 IP = 972 IP
        (somewhere in here would be great!!)
        162 games x 7 IP = 1134 IP
        (this would likely mean we would be a contending team!)

        Which would tend to hide the apparent weakness in the bullpen. The bullpen looked lousy (at times – actually a lot!) just partially because those guys were tired out from over-use (and got TJ Antone surgery for his troubles in 2021). And that also includes the times that they got up and warmed up, but never got into the game and entered into an actual appearance.
        So if Ashcraft, Lodolo and Greene can give them 500 innings, about 166 innings apiece (and maybe a wee bit more!), then they need 300 innings from some combination of Cessa, Overton, and some other warm bodies. Dunn? Brandon Williamson?

        Which is why, I think, that the Reds “brain trust” (haha) will go dumpster diving and give us another version of Mark Minor in 2023.
        Actually, Overton was kind of one of those dumpster dives, as he was a “career” minor league pitcher, who just caught lightning in a bottle for the first part of 2022. Then got hurt.

        Just looking at the Braves pitching staff: their 5 main starters have 738 IP, through 144 games. About 100 innings or so was taken up by about 4 other guys. So their “starters” may reach 900 innings. And they have the third best record in the NL. Just behind the Mets.

      • Optimist

        And anyone else remember Mike Leake? Surprised that he faded away with the pandemic, considering his stats didn’t drop quite so far as Bronson’s. Perhaps the layoff just took too much away such that his return was not worth it – still, a classic league-average, consistent-as-clockwork-appearance performer. Certainly earned his payday. 10 solid years, no major injuries.

        I’m afraid you’re correct in that we can expect another Minor-type FA signing, and it will be impressive if they get anything near a Leake-like performance for it.

      • MadMike

        Optimist, if i remember right, Leake’s father was a carpenter, fell off a roof and broke his neck just before the covid outbreak. The timing was such that Leake walked away to help care for him. It’s a sad story.

      • Bill

        It’s not a Mike Minor type signing I am afraid of, it is a Mike Minor price tag that worries me. There is nothing wrong with giving a million to a reclamation project, worst case you spend a little more than league minimum. If it works out you get solid production for cheap and a potential trade chip. The problem with Minor was they actually traded someone for a $10 million contract. A low cost guys like Drury is the way to go, or if you want to compare pitchers – Alfredo Simon, waiver wire pickup who became an All Star and was traded for Suarez before he regressed back to below average

  9. Votto4life

    As long as we are discussing the likes of Aquino, Senzel, Fraley and Stuart Fairchild, this team is going to struggle. Each of these players are fourth outfielders at the very best. Let’s face it, none of the players mentioned, would even be on the major league roster of a good team.

    The Reds have maybe three or four legitimate major league hitters.

    • GreatRedLegsFan

      Sadly you’re correct, none of the current five outfielders in the active roster is a legitimate regular. I foresee their chances to stick in next year’s roster as follows: 1. Friedl 2. Fraley 3. Senzel 4. Aquino 5. Fairchild

      • 2024WSChamps

        I think Fraley is a legit mlb player, just has to be platooned against Lefties. He is just 27, plays perfectly adequate defense, and has hit 100+ OPS+ each of the last two seasons. I think Friedl is a good 4th OF, as he plays good defense in all 3 spots. The other 3… I really don’t see it. Aquino maybe could stay as an mlb player, just due to his unbelievable defense. I have lost patience on Senzel, and I’m not sold on Fairchild either. Reds need to spend on a legit Corner OF this offseason

  10. Rcsodak

    They need 2-200 inning pitchers and the youngun to up theirs to 125-150. Then a bullpen full of rp’s that can pitch multiple innings and a closer.
    The bad boys, once the 7th inning hit, is what we need

    • Doug Gray

      There is a solid chance that the entirety of Major League Baseball has 1 pitcher throw 200 innings this season. There were only five that did so last season. Expecting a team to have multiple guys do it is like hoping that a unicorn delivers you the winning lottery numbers on your way to Utopia in your flying car.

      • Optimist

        Am I being too optimistic that Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft get to 500ip? That’s 90 5-6ip starts each. I agree there’s no way they find any one SP close to 200. They’ll need 8 starters, with 6 getting over 100ip. I suppose Cessa/Overton/Hoffman/Guttierez may get close to 100, but each is very unproven to do so effectively, and that further strains the pen. After that the Reds are into rookies and FAs, and still need more arms for the pen.

        I guess it could happen successfully, but better to plan on more testing and improvisation considering they’ll be watching Sims/Santillan/Antone, and others returning to the pen, let alone the ongoing offensive tryouts.

      • Redsvol

        Exactly. You said it a lot more succinctly than I would have. Even the best starting pitchers don’t throw 180 much less 200 innings anymore. Certain lt don’t want to do it with guys that haven’t even broken the 150 mark as professionals.

      • Joey Red

        It’s impossible for the Reds to have those type of pitchers but not the rest of baseball. If the Yankees or Dodgers or Red Sox wanted a staff of pitchers like that they would find them or at least try. But not the Reds. The chances of the Reds having just one is a unicorn story. And if they had one he would have been traded to one of the teams I mentioned. The unicorn dream of those teams is to actually win. Winning to them and their fans isn’t some pipe dream that’s always around the corner or a couple of years away. That’s the unicorn story of the Reds and so many here continue to buy into it. Despite going 2-3 in St. Louis that many here see as hop, the hated Cards once again schooled the Reds as to how an actual baseball franchise should be like. And they are headed to the playoffs again. For the Reds that’s a unicorn.

      • Doug Gray

        Let me repeat myself: There is a good chance that all of Major League Baseball is going to have ONE 200 inning starter this year. The Yankees, Dodgers, everyone can look all they want and they aren’t going to find them. That guy doesn’t exist.

      • Jonathan Linn

        @Doug – would that be still due to COVID 2020 season + the trend of more bullpen usage and understanding most pitchers don’t have the stuff to go three times through the lineup? Sandy Alcantara has been a beast this year. hope he wins the Cy Young Award and will be the only pitcher hitting 200 innings

      • wkuchad

        The Reds last 200 inning pitcher was in 2014, and they had two of them (Cueto at 243 and Leake at 214). Simon just missed out with 196.

        I think this was a trend before Covid.

      • Joey Red

        You missed the whole point Doug. It wouldn’t matter if the Reds had more than one or even just one pitcher in that category. That pitcher would have been traded away before the season started. Any pitcher that fits that description will be traded away in the future if the Reds are lucky enough to have one. That’s because that’s the way the Reds do things.

      • Doug Gray

        I can’t believe you spend time in your day posting about the Reds.

    • Joey Red

      Why? Because I speak the truth and don’t hang on your every word? This is a blog right? People are allowed to have differences of opinions right? And I spend very little time on the Reds. That’s because they are an unmitigated disaster. Just because you won’t say that doesn’t mean that others won’t or can’t.

      • Doug Gray

        Because you seem to be miserable about following the team and seem to have no belief whatsoever that it’s ever going to change.

        And if you don’t think I haven’t said this team is a disaster you clearly haven’t been reading enough of what I write.

      • Joey Red

        Why would me calling the Reds a disaster also mean I’m miserable lol? If that’s the case most of the Reds fan base are miserable. Those who criticize the Reds here are often called “miserable” or “fair weather fans” by the writers and those posters who disagree. Just like this conversation. I simply pointed out if the Reds had a quality pitcher or pitchers who fit your description the Reds would eventually trade them. I wasn’t disagreeing with your point that very few pitchers fit that description. My point was that the Reds trade quality players which is why the current “rebuild” or whatever it is doesn’t matter. That’s because if they were lucky enough to land good players in the spring training exodus of just about every decent player on the team those players who do succeed will be traded away. Every writer here should make that clear instead of praising the Reds. The ownership deserves zero praise. I haven’t read every article you have written. Maybe you have pointed out that the Reds are a disaster. As you should and as should every writer here.

  11. MBS

    Cessa and Cueto for the 4 and 5? I like it, Dunn (6th) IL status seems to be a persistent problem. Overton (7th) looked good, but is far from a pitcher that I’d want to count on. Williamson and Stoudt would be the 8th, and 9th pitcher in AAA. Ben Livly could be the 10th, or a similar FA pitcher. My hopes would be Williamson or Stoudt take it to the next level, and push their way into the rotation at some point in 23.

    • SultanofSwaff

      Abbott will probably start in AAA, but he seems likely to grab a spot if one opens.

      • MBS

        With the finish to the year that Abbott had they might move him up to AAA. I was guessing more of a midseason move, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he started the season in Louisville.

        I think Phillips will get a midseason promotion to AAA. He had less time in AA, and seem to adjust, but did not finish as well as Abbott.

  12. Steve Schoenbaechler

    Could there be something to making Cessa a starter?

  13. Jim Walker

    I don’t understand why virtually no one considers Stuart Fairchild a legitimate candidate moving forward. He has a career AAA OPS of .889 (409 PAs). His career MLB OPS is .763 (82PAs). His 2022 MLB OPS is .849 (65 PAs) with a wRC+ of 133. With the Reds (54PAs) his OPS is (drum roll please) 1.041 with a 181 wRC+. Clearly that 181 wRC+ would seem to be beyond the pale of sustainability. However, there is nothing in Fairchild’s underlying stats to suggest that an .800+ OPS is not sustainable for him.

    Fairchild is a solid OF. He probably projects as a corner guy in the long term but looks capable of handling CF on an interim basis. He has good speed and runs the bases well.

    By comparison, while 2023 will be Fairchild’s age 27 season (DOB is mid March 1996), 2023 will be the age 28 season for Senzel and Fraley, Friedl’s age 27 season, and Aquino’s age 29 season.

    Clearly, something went off the rails between the DBacks and Fairchild. But as many or even more strange things seem to happen there as in the Reds org of recent years. The falling out resulted in him bouncing several times a couple of earlier in the 2022 season. Notably though, he never cleared waivers and maintained his MiLB production in multiple landing spots until ultimately earning his way to MLB with the Reds.

    Just maybe Stuart Fairchild is a RH bat everyone hoped (and daresay most expected) Nick Senzel to be? Rather than tagging him by the apparent shortfall of someone else, hopefully, the Reds will give him the chance to reach for the potential he has shown so far with them since being promoted to MLB.

    • Bill

      Unless the Reds do something unexpected in free agency I see no reason not to go with the three Fs and Aquino in the OF. Senzel is evidently going to a utility role. Between injury and performance it will eventually sort itself out until a prospect forces themselves onto the roster. The infield situation seems to be the more confusing part to me. Moose is still holding a spot, Farmer deserves to play somewhere, Senzel will be available as the utility guy, Votto isn’t leaving 1B. Steer, Barero, and potentially others coming up are eventually going to force some veterans off the roster

      • Grand Salami

        The OF platoon of avg guys in their peak years seems fine.

        The IF must produce at the big league level. Steer and Barreo need to prove that in particular. A serviceable catcher is also a must.

    • BK

      @Jim, I would love to see more of Fairchild. If he could produce on the RH side of a platoon with Fraley, the Reds would have top-tier production at one OF spot. Perhaps Fairchild has more to offer, but a platoon partner for Fraley would be a win!

      Also, hats off to you. You noticed his performance-based potential months ago. His AAA numbers are solid–it’s surprising that two organizations gave up on him so quickly.

      • Jim Walker

        I am not surprised that the 2 organizations that exposed Fairchild to waivers (Mariners and Giants) didn’t keep him on their MLB rosters. He became available to them after rosters were set for the season and had no history of success at MLB.

        However he was optionable and was initially optioned by both; so, I was surprised to see him bouncing around as a DFA on the waiver wire after just a few AAA games where he seemed to be regaining the traction he had lost at Arizona. In 9 games at AAA (42PAs) with Seattle and Frisco, SF combined, he had an OPS of 1.007 with a K rate in the low 20% range and BB rate of 18%.

        One can only surmise both organizations were previously satisfied with their 40 man roster OF situations previous to acquiring Fairchild and hoped to slip him through waivers to outright when they needed a 40 man roster spot. Keep in mind this is exactly what the Reds did with Aquino in late April of this year.

    • Jim Walker

      When I asked that Fairchild not be tagged by the apparent shortfall of others I had 2 specific situations in mind.

      The first was Nick Senzel’s situation. The Reds need to avoid the trap of thinking that because Senzel has not panned out as well as expected as a #2 overall draft choice Fairchild cannot do better than Senzel since he was a #38 overall choice the year following.

      The second situation is the thinking that Fairchild should be seen as a platoon partner, currently for Jake Fraley. Fairchild’s MLB data set is still woefully small (82PAs). However, currently he is markedly better versus RH pitchers than against LH pitchers. In fact his career wRC+ versus RH pitching is better than Fraley’s (125/118).

      While Fraley appears to need a platoon partner vs LH pitching (44 wRC+) from the data we have now, using Fairchild as that platoon partner might be counter productive.

      • Pete

        To me fair child has shown enough that he should be getting much more playing time. Maybe they should just rotate the four outfielders on a cycle so everyone of them plays three out of four days. The Reds are not a position to ignore guys that are showing any potential whatsoever. It’s opportunity cost going down the toilet otherwise.

      • Jim Walker

        @pete> Dumb me actually thought they would use a 5 man outfield rotation the last 6 weeks to 2 months. At least 4 of the 5 are viable short term CFs, so why not? A 6 game week offers 18 starting slots. That would be 3 guaranteed starts each with 3 slots left open for guys with a hot hand.

        Instead Aquino started 15 straight games in 13 days. No wonder he looked to be running on empty Sunday when he K’s 3 times!

    • Indy Red Man

      Didn’t Fairchild play AAA in the PCL? THats why his AAA numbers don’t matter much.
      Dilson Herrera was a PCL monster once so almost anyone can do it.

      I like him though. He was a top 10 college hitter at Wake and obviously has more then enough power to do damage! He also tries to be selective unlike Jose “gone fishing” Barrero

      • Jim Walker

        Fairchild played in the PCL/ AAA West (or whatever MLB calls it nowadays) with DBacks/ Mariners/ Giants and then in the IL/ AAA East with the Reds

        Here are his AAA stats breakouts by: PA,OBP,SLG,OPS,wRC+

        ALL AAA (2021-22)
        409, .367 ,.523 ,.889 ,123

        PCL (2021-22)
        231 ,.381 , .528 ,.909 ,123

        IL (2022)
        178 ,.338 ,.512 ,.851 ,121

        Not a lot to choose from between the 2 leagues.

        Same holds for his BA and K rates; but he did walk a tad more out west.

      • Jim Walker

        Fairchild seems to me to be rowing upstream against at least 2 biases.

        He played his college ball in the AAC instead of the almighty SEC.

        Then he came into the MLB draft under rules that had moved around the various compensation choices; and, at #38 overall was tagged as a “2nd Round” choice. Had he been chosen a year later (or earlier) or virtually every other draft within 5 years on either side at #38, he would have been a “1st Round” pick.

  14. Indy Red Man

    Just play Fairchild, Fraley, and Friedl vs righties with Senzel/Aquino platooning for Fraley/Friedl. They could also move Senzel around if they want. What difference does it make? They could actually sit Farmer, Solano, or India on a rotating basis.

    I definitely don’t see what Aquino or Senzel have done career wise to be ahead of Fairchild?

    • Jim Walker

      It is the Reds way. They had Senzel and Aquino highly placed in the preseason pecking order.
      Fraley got favorable insertion into the order because he was the highest healthy return in the “blockbuster” trade.
      Friedl had never been traded away which kept him ahead of the prodigal returnee, Fairchild.

      Ironically, when the dust clears, the two most promising seasons will probably have come from the two guys at the bottom of the list since Fraley is shaping up as an even worst hitter versus LH pitching than Winker was.

    • Pete

      No one should have an outfield job nailed down at this point. This is the perfect opportunity to begin to separate the starters from the back ups. Play Fairchild against righty and lefty pitchers. Would do the same with the other four. In a perfect scenario they would rotate the five outfielders on a daily basis regardless of who is pitching for the opposition. I really hope they don’t blow this opportunity.

      It would be best if everyone comes to the conclusion that 2023 is truly a year for development and evaluation. Nothing more. Don’t expect any more. Do not sign any high priced talent in the free agent market. If any money is to be spent it’s to offer longer-term contracts to the young talent especially in the rotation. The Reds need to set a year that they believe they could start competing and I would think that year is 2024 with starting in 2025 having a real shot to win a championship.