Hunter Greene was absolutely electric in his return to the Reds rotation. He shut down the Cardinals down for six innings, striking out eleven batters without allowing a walk. Greene broke his own records of most pitches 100+ MPH, and most strikeouts on pitches 100+ MPH.
Unfortunately for the Reds, Jose Quintana was dominant on the mound for the Cardinals as well. He threw seven shutout innings, and the Reds had just two hits off him. It did not get better for the Reds offense against the Cardinals bullpen either.
Reiver Sanmartin, Buck Farmer and Alexis Diaz got the Reds to extra-innings in a 0-0 game. Things got dicey for the Reds in the bottom of 10th inning after they failed to score in the top of the inning. The Cardinals had the bases loaded with just one out against Alexis Diaz in his second inning of work. TJ Friedl make a nice catch on a shallow fly ball, avoiding a collision with Jose Barrero, and proceeded to throw out Corey Dickerson at the plate making a poor decision to try to score the winning run.
The Reds again failed to score in the top of the 11th inning. The Reds would score just one run over 20 innings of baseball on Saturday.
Fernando Cruz, the starting pitcher for the Reds yesterday, came in for the bottom of the 11th. He did not retire a batter, and the Reds lost on a walk-off, fielders choice. Paul Goldschmidt hit a ball to Nick Senzel, who was playing the third base line as the fifth infielder in the do-or-die situation. Senzel tried to throw out the winning run, but the ball hit the runner Andrew Knizner on his throw home. Reds broadcaster Chris Welsh broke down the play eloquently, stating that while Knizner DID deliberately make the throw home difficult for Senzel, that was a legal play because he DID NOT throw his body into the throw as it happened.
The Reds were swept in the double-header today in St. Louis after losing the first game 5-1. The Reds have now lost three straight games. The Reds need to go 6-10 over their final 16 games to avoid 100 losses.
| Final | R | H | E |
| St. Louis Cardinals (86-60) | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (57-89) | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| W: Matz (5-3) L: Cruz (0-1) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Fernando Cruz allowing a bunt single to Tommy Edman, to load the bases with 0 outs in the bottom of the 11th inning. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 12.7% (from 19.2% to 6.5%).
Positives
Hunter Greene was incredible in his first start since August 1st: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K. He destroyed his own previous velocity records as documented by the great Sarah Langs:
most 100+ mph pitches in a game, pitch-tracking era (2008):
Hunter Greene: 47, Tonight thru 6 IP
Hunter Greene: 39, 4/16/22
Hunter Greene: 38, 7/26/22
Hunter Greene: 38, 7/9/22His 33 pitches at 101.0+ mph are also a pitch-tracking era record
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 18, 2022
most 100.0+ mph strikeouts in a game, pitch-tracking era (2008):
Hunter Greene: 9, Tonight thru 6 IP
Hunter Greene: 6, 7/9/22
Joel Zumaya: 5, 5/8/10— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 18, 2022
Reiver Sanmartin retired all four batters that he faced with 3 strikeouts – including a strikeout of pinch-hitter Albert Pujols after a roaring ovation from the Busch Stadium crowd. Sanmartin now has a 2.76 ERA this year as a relief pitcher.
Stuart Fairchild had the hardest hit ball of the night from either side – 107.1 MPH EV double in the 7th inning off the dominant Jose Quintana.
Negatives
The Reds scored just 1 run in 20 innings today. Aristides Aquino came into today scorching hot, but was 0 for 8 on the day. Kyle Farmer was also 0 for 8, and Nick Senzel was 0 for 7 with a walk.
Not so random thoughts……………
It has been so refreshing to see three starting pitchers that were drafted and developed by the Reds have the kind of success that Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft have had this season. Just the fact that none of the three have needed to be sent back down to AAA this year is remarkable. How many big pitching prospects have we seen in recent memory get called up and have to go back down to work on stuff? These three young arms are a pretty good foundation to build a team around.
In their last 3 starts, rookies Lodolo and Greene have combined for 0 walks and 33 strikeouts.
— Reds Media Relations (@RedsPR) September 18, 2022
Here is Chris Welsh and his team over at Baseball Rules Academy explaining the final play of the game.
Here is the base path throwing lane rule explained. With Paul Goldschmidt showing how to do it. https://t.co/BOjZ0iJQOm
— Chris Welsh (@thinkpitch) September 18, 2022
Up Next
Reds at Cardinals
Saturday, 2:15 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Luis Cessa (5.25 ERA/3.97 xFIP) vs Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA/3.45 xFIP)
Hunter was spotting up his pitches over and over and over again tonight. The league won’t stand a chance if he can do that consistently.
Good pitching in game two for sure. Greene is awesome especially. Not optimistic of avoiding 100 losses. The way we’re playing there’s a better chance of having the worst Reds team record ever. Lost 9 of 10 and only two games ahead of the Pirates.
Not a good day for Aquino 0-8…but there wasn’t a whole lot of hitting going on all day from either team.
Goldschmidt 1-8
Orenado 1-6
Pujols 0-3
That walk off play could not be challenged? Wow it’s an interference from here to China…please God
The rules are clear: Not interference.
Mr Doug, what is the rule that applies here? The runner can go on the grass?
The runner is not avoiding a tag. The catcher doesn’t have the ball yet. The runner can take whatever path he chooses. Not interference.
The pitching has been good enough to compete for a long time for the reds. We haven’t had a real strong , well rounded line up since the 1999 team. So frustrating
Ehhh…. The 2012 team was probably one of, or possibly the best, team in the majors. No real weaknesses, prime Votto, Choo, Bruce, Phillips, aging but still productive Rolen, and a nightmare pitching staff for opposing teams.
The loss to the Giants in 2012 after leading 2-0 in the league series, in my opinion, still affects the Reds. A rejuvenation of the organization is needed.
No Choo in 2012 (2013 only), but they had Frazier. And a resurgent Ludwick.
Bull pen is also pitching right?
Some consistent good hitting should emerge from the loaded farm system in the next year or so.
Look at the runs produced and allowed this year Rednat. This team has procured runs like a .500 ball club – admittedly the last week has been bad. This team has given up runs like a 100 loss team. There may be some bright spots but overall team pitching has been horrible this year. It’s a team game.
It does not look like either Barrero or Steer are the answer for 2023 given their current numbers and how they have looked since being brought up. I think both start the season in Louisville.
I think there is a better chance that Siani, Christian-Strand, and EDLC will be given a chance to show what they can do out of spring training. Marti is a long shot to jump up from A ball to the big club if he performs well in ST. That could put EDLC at 3B, Strand at 1B, Siani in CF , Marti at SS, India at 2B, Friedl in LF, and Fraley/Aquino in RF. Of course the line up is improved dramatically with the presence of Stephenson at C.
RE:Marte> He has not even played in AA yet and several sources are questioning whether he is going to be too heavily built to play SS at the MLB level. He is going to play in the Arizona Fall League. His performance there could go a ways toward deciding whether he will be a SS, a 3B, 2B or a corner OF.
I suspect Fairchild is being eyed as the platoon partner for Fraley. Prior to Saturday, Fairchild had a .937 OPS in 48 PAs with the Reds. He had a double and a walk for 3PAs Saturday; so, that’s going to go up when the numbers post overnight.
AA is going to be the RF or gone. Not sure where this leaves Friedl.
Who cares if they have 100 losses!? Better drafts picks should ALWAYS be paramount at this stage.
Feelings are for Karen’s.
Draft picks don’t always work out. Plus won’t help the reds for 4-5 years . Can’t always depend on the draft
But a lot of times they do. Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft were both selected by the Reds in 2019. Greene was selected in 2017 but underwent Tommy John surgery setting him back or he would have been in the Majors sooner.
For me, one of the areas the Reds need to get better at in development is not taking so long to get guys to MLB. The COVID situation has thrown another factor in by costing the guys in mid and lower levels a full year or more of development time to a process the Reds already seem slow at compared to other teams drafting at slots like them.
This said, it is encouraging that India came through so quickly but he was largely the other side of the COVID coin and profited by being in thre right situation at the right time. Lodolo has moved quickly too and also Greene. Maybe this is the start of a trend.
The new draft lottery system means the teams with the three worst records will all have the same odds of getting the first pick, 16.5% each.
It is also mathematically possible, but not probable that any or all three of these teams could fall below the 6th pick in the draft since every team not making the playoffs will have at least a minuscule shot at the #1 pick with the 1st six slots being determined by the lottery draw.
The only thing guaranteed by having the worst record is that the team will have a 16.5% chance of winning the top pick and an absolute floor of the 7th pick.
As of Sunday morning, the Reds have the 5th worst record which gives them a 10% chance at the #1 pick and sets their absolute floor at 11th. The Pirates hold the last 16.5% slot, 2 games worst than the Reds.
I am a bit surprised that the floor for the 3 worst records can drop a team as many as 6 slots based on the lottery results.
I follow the NHL which uses a similar system but with the provision that no team can be dropped more than 1 spot below their “natural” spot. For example, in the NHL, the team with the worst record is guaranteed to pick no lower than #2 regardless of the lottery outcome.
Also in the NHL, where the top 16 spots are assigned by the lottery, a team can advance a maximum of 10 slots based on the lottery results. If a team with better than the 11th worst record wins the lottery, the #1 pick stays with the worst record and the lottery winner advances just 10 spots, i.e. the ceiling for the 12th worst record is the #2 pick and so on.
Oops, Had an error in my NHL comp. Only the top 2 spots can are decided by the lottery. Correct that 16 teams are in the lottery and that no team can be dropped more than 1 spot or advance more than 10 based on the lottery results.
If the Reds’ plan is to compete in 2024, then next season really has to be the “Season of Sorting” (remember that?).
This is where the Reds currently stand for the future:
SP Greene
SP Lodolo
SP Ashcraft
SP (Gutierrez)
SP (Dunn)
CL Diaz
RP (Santillan)
RP (Sanmartin)
RP (Hoffman)
RP (Cessa)
RP
RP
C Stephenson
1B
2B India
3B
LF
CF (Senzel)
RF (Aquino)
DH
The “()” indicates players who have to prove they belong on the 2024 team with a good 2023 season. There’s a lot of question marks, and a lot of holes. But I have hope that with the deep pool of SS talent the Reds have, they can produce players that can play SS, 3B, and CF in the majors. It would also be nice if Barrero could rediscover whatever magic he had in the minors and bring it to the majors.
The nice thing is that in 2024, Votto, Moose, Farmer, and Minor will all be off the books, so the Reds will have plenty of cash to bring in some free agents to help fill the holes.
The Reds biggest needs for 2024 are at 1B and LF. LF they could probably solve through free agency or internal candidates, but for 1B, they will probably need to make a trade, as there are really no good FA 1B who will be available, and the Reds have nothing in-house unless they move Stephenson there, but then that just opens a hole at catcher.
In other words, 2023 should be an interesting season if the Reds keep pushing to prepare for 2024. By this time next year, the hope is that the Reds will have a young team of players that show they belong in the majors.
If that is our rotation in 2024 you are saying 40% if the starting rotation is bad (Dunn & guiti). I hope that’s not the case. And Senzel and Aquino can’t be starters for a contending team. I have more hope for steer, edlc, and ces to be starting in 2024 than those 2.
The difference between a winning organization and a losing organization can be knowing the rules. St Louis obviously instructed their base runner to run inside the baseline on the game winning fielders choice. Smart baseball! The Reds? They had no clue. They thought the play was interference. If Bell and coaches knew the rule they would not have come out to challenge the play. The runner did not pull a “Reggie Jackson” LOL! Very smart St Louis!
I did not hear or see that final play. Did Bell actually try to challenge the non-call? If so, it is completely embarrassing. One Manager actually knows the rules and how to use them to his team’s advantage, and the other doesn’t? That should never happen in Major League Baseball. Ever.
But hey, the Reds lead the world in double switches.
Bell came out and seemed to discuss the call but didn’t really get spun up and argue. I’d almost suspect his head knew it was a done deal but, in his heart, and for the players’ sake he was showing the colors.
I don’t buy this at all. The Reds know the rule. But interference is a judgment call of the ump. A player can run inside the baseline on 3rd, as opposed to 1st, but he is still not permitted to intentionally jump in front of a thrown ball. So it’s up to jedge intent of the runner. And it’s always reasonable to argue intent. I don’t believe for one second they didn’t know the rules.
Hunter Greene IS the future. If the Reds waste his tenure in Cincy, I dont know if I’ll ever forgive them. This kid is special.
Great pitching from the Reds.
Greene, Farmer, Diaz and Cruz.
What a great ball game. Came up a bit short, but still way to compete
Ot looks to me like Greene worked on creating backspin on his fastball rather than sidespin. I haven’t looked at the statcast data to verify, but previously his spin was about 2 o’clock and result in an absurd amount of horizontal movement. Which is actually bad because hitter can hit a ball moving horizontally. When hus fastball has more backspin instead, it won’t move as much horizontally, but will miss a lot more bats. And that’s what it looked like to me happened last night. His fastball at the top of the zone with straight back spin will be unhittable. Good sign from Greene tonight.
Since this season is for the future why isn’t Friedl playing against LHP?
This just in, Hunter Greene is a strong young man. Future looks bright if we can surround him with some bullpen pieces and improved defense.
Man you got to feel good about the pitching, Lodolo, and now Greene are pitching like studs since returning. Ashcraft has had his 1st rehab, so hopefully we start the year with 3 young guns anchoring our rotation. Krall needs to drop some $$$ on the pen, then our starts won’t be wasted.
We appreciate the rules explanation so much! Fine piece of writing there. You could tell Romines was complaining the base runner was going too wide which doesn’t apply in this case. The fielder and catcher have to practice throwing to the outside in that case, instead of the inside.
Regardless of anybody’s thoughts on that last play, the fact is we couldn’t execute when we had the chance and we let it all come down to that. We ran with the big dogs for a while, but then we couldn’t finish.
Great outing by Greene. Hope to see him finish strong and to get Ashcraft back for a couple as well.
Think I saw you mention that like myself you are a college football follower. For me the ghost runner situation is just like the CFB overtime. First up/ visitor has to score. I know in baseball there tends to be a line of thought that the visiting team needs play for multiple runs. However, I think it is almost imperative to get at least 1 to turn the heat up on the home team.
I am and it does match up. Failure to execute when the opportunity presents itself is key.
My beloved Syracuse Orange got their shot yesterday with less than a minute remaining and pulled one out of their hip pockets. That was precise execution and a lot of luck to get there. We didn’t have much of either last night.
The Buckeyes offense finally hit high gear. They scored 77 and could have scored 107 against a Toledo MAC team that is likely to be a 9-10 win regular season team and go to a respectable mid level bowl.
The Bucks were pulling people before the half and very heavy on running after the half until the full second unit came on and ran the regular offense again until they had scored twice. Then a walk on running back broke a ~50 yarder for the final score anyway.
The defense did get burned by a couple of big plays though and gave up 21 total points. But then Toledo was not an everyday cake walk team.
Though I still believe the Reds would have lost last night in that same inning, for I’m still not sold on Diaz nor any of these relievers (though Diaz might be the best we have back there), Kinzer was WAY out of the baseline. He was freakin’ in the grass. He intentionally ran that far over. How he isn’t called out for running out of the baseline I don’t know.
Yep. So if there are not hard-and-fast rules, the runner could divert pretty much anywhere and approach the plate from the first base side? I find that hard to believe. And what about going into second and swinging way wide to break up a double play? That gets called. I’m baffled, but I’ve moved on anyway. As I said, we didn’t execute when we had the chance. We paid the price at that point.
That Baseball Academy explanation is quite thought provoking, to me anyways… clearly the Cardinals know the rule and the Reds do not. They used another Cardinals play at the plate as the example they walk the reader through.
Are there other rules that the Reds do not know about but other teams do? It reminds of some Gruden(?) play years ago, where the other team just stood around like the ball was dead but Gruden’s team kept running and scored a TD.
It is the rules. Good play.by Cards. Why is Romine standing on that side of the plate for a force play? Left foot should have been on the plate.
Senzel’s inexperience (although ability) to play third (brought in from the outfield to plug up the infield), showed here.
He should have moved his feet and gotten a better angle to throw to Romine. He had a second to do that. Instead, he gunned the ball to Romine and hit the Cardinal runner in the back.
It is disputable whether it was interference (the runner knew he was in the sightline-throwing line from 3rd base), but it was not a good D- play by the Reds. And Cruz put them in a lousy situation by not having good control last night.
Pitching is everything. That’s what wins a lot of games. All you have to do is look at where the Reds pitching ranks among NL teams.
And I can’t believe that people are down on Steve Steer already, after just playing a handful of games.
Hunter Greene is a huge talent, and this year has been a big learning experience for him; sometimes good, sometimes lousy. Next year will probably still be a little uneven, but probably more consistently good (or great) and rarely lousy.
I think that if I were making odds, one of either Sims or Antone will be able to pitch next year, and but I would not count on both.
This year has been another “tryout” year, throwing in whatever to find out what the Reds have in the bullpen. I hope next year is better.
I actually think next year (2023) could be a surprisingly good year for the Reds; maybe not contending, but finishing close to (or above) 0.500 baseball.
Lastly, DFA Moustakas when the season is over. And clear out the rest of the dead wood from the 40 man roster.