Tonight the free falling Reds open a five game series versus the Central division leading St Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The best news for the Reds may be that when the dust settles on this five game four day affair, they get a day off on Monday.
Starting Pitchers
Chase Anderson squares off against the Cardinals Miles Mikolas in a match up of right handers.
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Chase Anderson | 9.0 | 9.00 | 1.67 | 22.5% | 27.5% |
| Miles Mikolas | 181.1 | 3.42 | 1.04 | 4.6% | 18.7% |
| Links: Chase Anderson Stats | Miles Mikolas’ Stats |
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Chase Anderson
Anderson makes his fourth start in his fifth overall appearance with the Reds. His results have not been good as the numbers above shout out. He faced the Cardinals in his first Reds start then was brought 2 days later to face them in relief. The Cardinals had their way with him both times. The better news for Anderson and the Reds is that he posted relatively stronger results in his latest appearance, against the Brewers 5 days ago, allowing 2 earned runs on just 1 hit (but walked 3) in 4 innings of work.
Both right handed and left handed batters have an OPS > 1.100 versus Anderson. Maybe if he cut his BB rate by 2/3, he would fare better, particularly versus RH batters?
Trying to manage 6 pitches might be a mistake when sporting a BB rate of 20%. Anderson’s curve and sinker both have significant negative value ratings. Perhaps he would be well served to drop both and throw more cutters and change ups?
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | .177 | .318 | .848 |
| LHH | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | .231 | .444 | .983 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | Cutter | Sinker | Slider | Change | Curve | |
| Velo | 92.8 | 91.2 | 93.3 | 84.1 | 84.2 | 78.6 |
| Usage | 37.7% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 21.6% | 14.9% |
Miles Mikolas
Mikolas makes his 30th start of the season tonight. He is a grinder, averaging just short of 6.1 innings per start. His handedness splits are essentially neutral. With an ERA just a tad more than 10% better than league average and a WHIP half a tad over 1.00, Mikolas is having one of the strongest seasons of his career despite a winning % right at .500 (plus 7 no decision starts). However, the Cardinals have won 17 of his 29 previous starts (.586 winning % versus an overall team winning % of .587). The Cardinals have won 2 of 3 games versus the Reds started by Mikolas in 2022. His only 2022 decision against the Reds was the loss.
Mikolas mixes his stuff among 5 offerings. About 50% of his pitches are fastballs, slightly more of them are 4 seamers than sinkers. He throws about the same percentage of sliders as 4 seamers and essentially uses his curve as a change up although he occasionally slips in a straight change. With a combined K%+BB% of just over 23%, Mikolas is clearly a pitch to contact guy.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 376 | 86 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 17 | 70 | .244 | .283 | .384 |
| LHH | 346 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 65 | .214 | .254 | .362 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | Sinker | Slider | Change | Curve | |
| Velo | 93.6 | 93.0 | 88.7 | 82.6 | 76.2 |
| Usage | 26.8% | 22.3% | 25.9% | 4.2% | 20.4% |
Bullpens
REDS
Joel Kuhnel, and Derek Lowe are probably unavailable tonight following heavy pitch counts on Wednesday. Reiver Sanmartin and Kyle Dowdy may still be limited after throwing over 30 pitches each on Tuesday. Reinforcements arrived during the afternoon in the form of Dauri Moreta and Raynel Espinal. Luke Farrell (DFA) and Justin Dunn (15 day IL) are off the active roster to make way.
CARDINALS
Jordan Hicks is very limited or unavailable after throwing 25 pitches Wednesday. Packy Naughton may be limited on the heels of a 27 pitch outing on Tuesday.
Lineups
| REDS
SP: Chase Anderson |
CARDINALS
SP: Miles Mikolas |
| 1. T.J. Friedl (LF) 2. Jonathan India (2B) 3. Kyle Farmer (SS) 4. Jake Fraley (DH) 5. Donovan Solano (1B) 6. Aristides Aquino (RF) 7. Nick Senzel (CF) 8. Spencer Steer (3B) 9. Austin Romine (C) |
1. Brendan Donovan (2B) 2. Tommy Edman (SS) 3. Paul Goldschmidt (1B) 4. Nolan Arenado (3B) 5. Albert Pujols (DH) 6. Tyler O’Neill (CF) 7. Alec Burleson (LF) 8. Yadier Molina (C) 9. Lars Nootbaar (RF) |
David Bell would probably say this is the best lineup he can field versus the Cardinals who are in the midst of a playoff chase. Take a breath or two to think about this.best.lineup.
News and Notes
The Reds shuffled the deck chairs this afternoon to reinforce the bullpen. Doug Gray, reporting from the media lifeboat, has the details here
Jim’s Thought Of The Day
Today is MLB’s Roberto Clemente Day. Clemente is my all time Reds opposition hero. As a kid in sitting in the grandstand at Crosley field one afternoon, I watched in amazement as Clemente climbed the up the chain link fence in right field attempting to catch a moonball. I don’t recall if he was able to make the play; but from that day forward, I was hooked on him.
My other enduring remembrance of Clemente on the field is him pressed against the wall in right centerfield of Riverfront Stadium looking up helplessly as Johnny Bench’s game tying 9th inning home run soared over his head in the deciding game of the 1972 NLCS won later in the 9th by the Reds.
Sadly for Roberto Clemente and the world, there would be no more Clemente moments as he was gone from this realm less than 3 months later, dying while trying to improve the fate of humans in distress.
When and Where
Game time: 7:45pm ET
Where: Busch Stadium St. Louis, MO
Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
Forecast: 77°, some clouds possible, 1% chance of rain
“The free falling Reds” … what an appropriate phase to describe our band of castoffs and AAA/AAAA players. I do believe I’ll take my walk starting at 7:30 and then join the game in progress. Candidly, I don’t anticipate anything much on our side for the first 15-20 minutes anyway. If I’m surprised, then so be it.
The big question is, will Anderson or another Reds pitcher tee one up for Prince Albert to move him closer to that 700-HR mark? Tune in to find out.
I’ve pretty much stopped trying to “Kick this Pig” … I’d just like to see a decent showing.
I was seriously tempted to use the Tom Petty Free Fallin’ chorus lyric as a block quote somewhere in the post but I didn’t want to get Doug in trouble or cost him $$$ for a possible licensing fee/ violation.
So everybody who knows the song just think of it, count to 3 and cut loose if things go wrong as they often will for the Reds tonight!
If you don’t know it, well you won’t have the tune but just shout “Free Fallin’ I’m Free Fallin'” several times!
+1,000
Actually Mark, I hope Pujols gets 3 HRs tonight so the media will move on to something else! He’s a great player and I could like him more if he wasn’t back plating with the Dirty Birds!
Yeah if Albert had plagued the Reds with about any other team he would probably be 2nd to Clemente on my list of All Time favorite Reds opponents.
Same here, Dennis. Let him have a three-fer and get it over with tonight.
I wouldn’t mind seeing history when he gets #700.
“playing” NOT “plating”
Got to take the good with the bad of autospellers and correctors. Overall they are the greatest thing since my mom used to “spell correct” school papers she was typing for me back in the middle school day and often made what I wrote better for it.
My best lineup would be Lopez instead of Steer, but Steer is also young and has the higher ceiling so its just small fish. Would like to see India at 3rd and Lopez at 2nd someday.
You are being contrarian! That would be consistent with both their natural positions. I think with the recent pitching troubles, they are holding Lopez back for possible late inning pitching. But of that whole lineup, I still think his batting approach is top 2 at least but he just doesn’t seem to have found favor with Bell.
I’d like to see Senzel on the bench. Can’t remember his last hit.
Yes. There is an argument to be made of Lopez instead of Senzel and just shuffle the outfield a little.
mm, yeah you can shuffle Fraley out of the DH spot, I hadnt thought of that.
small fish though, Lopez started the last four gamedays. I’m fine with Senzel seeing the field, everyone on the roster should be getting playing time.
I believe Lopez can play some LF too.
Lopez in his last 15 games: .409/.435/.591
Senzel in his last 15 games: .137/.241/.157
I certainly would use Lopez in the OF since UTIL is his most likely spot in the bigs.
Who are you playing instead?
The player with the higher BA is generally better, right? Asking for a friend.
hm, this was covered already above and I at least gave it thought, something your friend may not be able to do.
Flew up and took my 11 yr old (she was tracked out of school) to the games against the Pirates, other than the make up game Tuesday day.
Glad she loves the zoo, the aquarium, Graeters, and our extended family who lives there. Tough for her to feel anything about them other than “they suck dad”.
Glad she got a ball, wish it had more meaning. Anyway, tough to make Reds fans these days, so Phil et al better be careful with their assumptions. My bet is neither of my kids gives a rat’s arse about the Reds once they can avoid my influence!
Haha, realized 2nd paragraph my kid is referring to the Reds, NOT our extended family! ?
lol
+5,000 for the memories even Phil can’t dampen.
Bright spot: Aquino in his last 15 games.
.288/.339/.586 with only 12 Ks.
Something to keep an eye on to see if he can keep it up.
Definitely seeing improvement. Key is sustainability.
This series could be a bellweather for AA. The Cardinals know him, have decent pitching and are playing for position in the new seeding scheme.
Pretty good start tonight don’t you think? 🙂
Whether it be the ball, aging, GABP or just the ebb and flow of seasons, Nick Castellanos is not having a good season.
He injured his oblique sept 2 and may miss most of the month of September
-0.4 WAR. OPS+ 96, slugging .397. 2022
3.2 WAR. OPS+ 138, slugging .576. 2021
He’s owed 4 years and 80 million from 2023-2026 and turns 31 in march.
Im disappointed the Reds have had no cornerstone franchise level position players develop at the MLB level to add to India and Stephenson in 2022. Im not disappointed that Krall didnt sign more huge over 30 contracts that paralyze roster construction and winning.
It seems Castellanos misses GABP.
Philly aint no pitchers park, trust me
Terrible at bat by Friedl
Not ready to play. Bunts then doesnt bunt on 2 strikes and takes strike 3 right down the middle. If your going to that which 99.9% of players dont do( bunt with 2 strikes), better be definitive
So how many runs will the Cards score in the first two innings? And how many will Anderson walk? Side bets are about all we have left.
Just started reading the comments here in the 4th inning. I see your fist two comments were about Senzel and now Anderson. Please keep ragging on players. The reds may just win this series as every player you rag on prives you wrong. lol
I like the take on the 3-2 count, AA … but he did nail you. Don’t PO the umpire as well.
The pitch before was low middle and he took that too, hittable pitch. I’d like to see more aggressiveness but at least he’s not wailing at everything low and away.
I agree AA did not give them a free strike in that PA. There wasn’t much he could have done with any of the 3. As the Ol’ Lefthander used to say, sometimes just tip your cap and vow to yourself to get them next time
Nick Senzel home run by a lot?
Is it a full moon?
Nope. 75% waning, actually … 😀 (my personal weather station)
Surprise, surprise, surprise!!!
A no-doubter by Senzel.
There you go Nick Senzel
I wanna see Pujols finish the year with 699
So, I took one look at Mikolas’ K rate and BB rate combined at 23% and brazenly wrote he was a pitch to contact guy. Then he gets 3 Ks on in the 1st 6 outs! Is it me, Mikolas or the Reds hitters????
Where were these guys vs. the Pie-rats?
Anybody but The Lettuce Guy on 3rd and we challenge the Nootbaar
That’s better.
How many more games must we suffer through,… i mean are left in the season
We home and home with the Stupid Cubs into the first weekend in October. So, probably too many.
India, what on earth happened there?
We’ve seen the same play and result several times.
Bell seems determined to use that delayed steal attempt to score a run when they have 1st and 3rd, decent speed on the bases and the batter gets an 0-2 count.
And there are 2 outs in the inning
I hadnt considered the count, strange play though since he had it stolen.
I really dont understand stopping there, strange play if that was planned, esp with our best hitter at the plate
Not sure if I’m happy we tried that move or not. India did his job. Friedl was just half a step too late.
Frankly, I think we could have challenged that.
I was hoping they’d ditch that Little League crap.
1st/3rd with the best hitter up….just dumb
Agree. That stopped working in U12
Haha Our “little league” play failed again. Maybe try some hit and runs instead some times. Anyway that play worked for Billy Haywood in Little Big League. Oh well.
That MAYBE wasn’t the best time to try that since we would have had two runners in scoring position with Solano at the plate.
David Bell insulted Solano. He said our best chance to get that run in is a 10 year old trick play.
@OldSchool>> Pretty much, I agree. Bell’s decision says he thought the best chance of scoring Friedl once Solano was down 0-2 was the trick play.
Bell was also hoping if it didn’t work Solano would get on ahead of Aquino to start the 4th so they wouldn’t pitch AA like it was the 7th inning of the 7th game of a playoff series b/c the risk of ending up with 2 on and no outs.
Bell came up snake eyes all the way around.
@ Jim
Sacrifice bunts and hit and runs are better at run creation than that nonsense.
sac bunts… ew
That is what is so frustrating. DB thinks he can outsmart other managers….and they say scoreboard…
That play reminds me of the old Pony League when you are 7-8 years old. The manager would yell “pickle” at the right time and of course the run would come in every time. Don’t remember seeing that “stunt” in the MLB.
Even Thrall was able to tell how they screwed up. Friedl is certainly fast enough.
Two base runners with no hits … sounds about right.
Thats a play where any good team above 12 understands as a defense the goal isnt to get the runner on first out. It’s dont let the runner from third score. If that means the runner is safe and gets back to first base…ok
Cardinals understand that and they played it to perfection…they were goading the runner at third to run with the SS preventing India’s advance to 2b and not caring if they got India out.
This is the second unacceptable Reds play that has nothing to with bullpen talent or Barrero swinging at sliders.
Friedl half hearted at bat to lead off the game striking out on pseudo bunt attempt with 2 strikes and baserunning out.
This will never get transmitted from Bell to Friedl or any other player.
Likely Friedl will come away from both plays clueless about what went wrong and Bell will blow it off by saying “We look for that kind of aggressiveness….”
Farmer showed why he is perhaps the only guy on the team except Aquino to consistently turn in a quick, on the money throw to the plate. Beautiful execution.
Re-thinking that little “show”, the words of Jimmy Duggan to Dottie Hinson come to mind …
“What are you, stupid? Bunting with our best hitter up?”
Aquino back to Aquino
K and a 1 handed soft infield pop up.
Pump the brakes on Aquino.
Pittsburgh and Chicago in September on 95-100 loss teams dont count.
The AA car is barely going 15 mph. I think it can safely coast to a stop on its own.
If can hit at all I’m all in with him as a 4th OF, its nice that we’ve seen even a little success. Unlikely he ever cements himself as a starter but he can still be a nice piece for the team.
+500
He also had .273/.333/.545 series vs the Brewers in among that.
You tell him, Jim. haha 😉
Brewers 14-21 since the hader trade deadline until they took 3 of 4 against the Reds. Not exactly the Dodgers or Cards either but the Billy Hamilton ……er Aquino fans can keep hoping.
Never seen Billy Hamilton with hit with power or throw someone out from near the warning track. haha 🙂 Just playin with ya buddy. I AM an Aquino fan. Not ashamed. 🙂 I will say Billy Hamilton has/had much unrealized potential but not near as much as Aquino.
Wad ya say? 😉
Good catch but it seems as though Fridl is TRYING to get hurt tonight. Glad he’s not.
Friedl *
I’m not too excited about Friedl in general but I thought that was a fantastic catch. He didn’t gamble, he had no choice because of where the ball was hit. He twisted to secure the ball after the catch and I would think a top athlete could survive a little belly flop at the end….Ouch, the hit in the knee AB lots worse.
I was thinking he was in danger of a broken wrist there.
When your hand gets caught up like that it makes for an awkward and uncomfortable slide, I’ve been there
Steer with a professional at bat.
And great baserunning
5 innings from Anderson. Solid ones at that. Maybe he goes 6, maybe he doesn’t. But I’d call it a good night to this point anyway.
I can’t keep up with all the pitchers that come and go on this team but Anderson is mowing them down with a good pitch count after 5. Not getting on any bandwagon but this is a welcome surprise.
Hit that one right on the Nootbaar … too bad.
Dunn to the DL with shoulder tightness. Another pitcher/player injured this year. Something has to be wrong with the Reds strength and conditioning regiment and/or the coaches. No other team has this many injuries to their pitchers/players. Reds doing something wrong!
and yet, most of the commenters want Bell to overextend his best relievers
Should the use of the word pitcher there really be plural?
Apologies, should have said relievers.
Ooops … the 70’s stache guy hung that one
Punisher!!!!!
on a low and away pitch too, nice HR
Just checking in. Anderson has 1 hit the Cards through 5 and Senzel & AA have both homered? I need to check my temperature. I must be having a COVID relapse.
Better take a test buddy. 🙂
Haha. Don’t care to have COVID for a third time. But, you have to admit Anderson going 5, giving up only 1 hit, and walking only 2 is a bit surrealistic.
Maybe but we’ll take it. 🙂
I didnt even consider the pitch clock contributing to a player rushing so much they maybe get injured. Gonna be a weird adjustment for the game esp in the l;ater innings where I as a fan dont want it rushed. Stupid rule but we’ll see how it plays out.
What scenario do you see a player getting hurt because he’s throwing a pitch every 20 seconds, or a batter having to be in the box?
Five innings, one hit, 80 pitches. Why can’t Anderson continue? Now we have 3 or 4 relievers that have to come through to make good on the 71% chance of winning. Like most everything else, it seems like a computer program is managing this game.
Because at the end of the day its still Chase Anderson, so I really dont think it matters. I’m fine with pulling him around where he’s been getting pulled as far as pitch count, but if he left him in I wouldnt have been upset either.
That might be the only time I like a sac bunt in a lineup with a DH
I’m still not that enthused with them, even there. Why give up an out, and a runner at first with no outs is still a high chance of scoring in an inning
I’m not that big of a fan either but when you only score eight runs in a four game series against the Pirates, at home, it might be time to try something else at least temporarily. haha I will say David Bell is trying to manufacture runs even if I don’t agree with his “Little League” run down managing call earlier.
The Punisher hammering some baseballs tonight. That would be Nick Senzel the Punisher.
Per baseball savant.
2 hardest hit balls in the game are Nick Senzel @ 106.2 mph and 105.6 mph and the longest home run as well at 421 feet.
Good for Nick.
Happy for him. I wouldn’t mind having lots of “Punishers” if they do that.
I liked the contact he made in his second AB, his swing looked a bit more fluid to me. He’s been struggling with power all season so its nice to see him swing hard at some.
Jim if I’m not mistaken Clemente was the first player to wear a helmet the whole game. One play i remember was when Clemente was into 2nd base standing up to stop Temple from throwing to 1st for a double play but, Temple threw and hit him in the helmet. They said Clemente always slid after that.
Bill, If you saw it or knew from reliable sources, I don’t doubt it but I have no specific memory of it.
I would have been less than 10 years old, lived 50 miles away, only got to few games in person and heard the rest that I heard on radio or talked about by family adults, little to no TV.
Fraley will go down as first out of the 8th in the score card but his AB was some bad luck on the call and he pushed the Cardinals pitcher forcing a change in the first game of the series. Good, quality AB
Yep
Cowboy saying if Fairchild had already been running, we’d be up 4-1
Did he or anyone suggest this before the double?
Despite what I’ve said this year, I think the Reds have their right fielder next year. What a difference a few tweaks has made.
Second good month in 4 seasons.
The umpire had the best view of that ball that Fraley hit, why the dinos in NY thought they had a better view is beyond me.
Because … 😀
First, why is The Neck Tattoo wearing rouge?
Really good throw by the Lars Nootbaar. No nougat on that one.
Nice play by Steer to nail him.
Spencer Steer flashing some leather at SS shift.
I don’t understand why Bell burned two players there late in a close game when he could have moved Senzel to 3B and Steer to 1B.
Good point. Though given the play Steer just made, it worked out. I don’t think Senzel coming into the infield cold makes that grab and throw.
well, as you said its late in a close game, I dont consider that the time to save players like Reynolds because they arent going to have much impact on an extra inning game. So it doesnt bother me, but I still would’ve done it the way you said. He must not be comfortable placing Senzel there defensively, and I dont do it with India either if he hasnt played there. Either way the substitutions dont bother me, its how I would play the later innings too. Everyone says they want him to be more aggressive, and then want more conservative managing which I guess I dont understand.
So everyonecan can get into the game. Gotta keep ’em fresh…
IDK
Spencer Steer looks like a ball player. He’s making adjustments and had some struggles but he looks like part of the solution and is competing. Hes in my 3b/1b/DH rotation in 2023 for sure.
I like him too especially his hitting approach and plate discipline. We’ve seen he’s able to flash some leather as well. I wish Bell would just leave him at 3B until he gets settled in the majors though.
Can’t offend Farm Dawg that way … not that it really matters. And I do believe he’s been told to play Barrero more days than not at SS.
Dis dudn’t wook good do it? 🙂
It’s because they sucked us in again, Melvin.
hahaha!!!
Could be setting up some pretty high drama if Albert comes to the plate.
Kind of like this AB here.
Ooooh Boy
Indeed
Great choice to throw to 3rd by AA. Very close.
Plus two hits including a homerun by AA.
Walk this guy now? That run doesn’t matter.
They put a flyer on 2nd
Fun game, nice win
Woah good play by Steer and we dodged a bullet in that game.
Defensive indifference when the guy steals 2nd as the winning run?
Thats a David Bell thing
Steer is the reds new 3b..just move on. Great defense.
Farmer can play SS until someone moves him off.
Great win
Yes, competitive in all phases and the late, home-team, playoff push was diverted.
If Senzel rediscovers his power, then all bets are off.
I like Barreo but he needs vets, not subs, in the the lineup around him or he’s exposed.
Lots of debate but TJ and Jake look like keepers.
Wow … what a way to start this marathon series.
Back at it tomorrow, friends. Time to shut it down and head for bed.
Nearly had a heart attack there! Whew!
Steer can play wherever you put him. You aren’t hurting his feelings by moving him around. This is the majors…you don’t need to baby guys anymore.
agreed
It’s games like this that keep this Reds junkie hooked!
That was a good baseball game despite some reds poor execution on offense.
Reds pitchers beat the cards offense and senzel and aquino hit well.