The Cincinnati Reds (53-79) will start a three game series at Wrigley Field tonight at 7:40 PM against the Chicago Cubs (56-78). The Reds still have 9 games remaining against the Cubs this season. In fact, of the Reds remaining 30 games, 28 of those games are against teams in the NL Central (the Reds have a lone two-game series at GABP against the Red Sox later this month).
The Reds are coming off a series win against the Rockies, which was capped by grand slam from Aristides Aquino in a 10-0 blasting of the Rockies in the second game of a doubleheader on Sunday. The Reds are surprisingly 24-25 in their last 49 games, and 50-57 since the 3-22 start. There are 10 MLB teams with a worse record than the Reds since May 6th.
The Cubs were playing some solid baseball until recently. The Cubs went 18-8 from July 17th through August 20th. The Cubs are however just 4-11 since. They were swept over the weekend in St. Louis, and they were shutout twice by the Cardinals in that series.
Starting Pitchers
Justin Dunn has pitched really well over his last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 13 K, 6 BB, 2.40 ERA. Dunn unfortunately had to leave his last start after four very strong innings against the Cardinals with right shoulder tightness (a move that he was upset at the time about, but later said to the media that it was probably the right decision by David Bell and Derek Johnson). Dunn was cleared to start tonight. Hopefully he is good to go and this isn’t going to be a long-term issue with Dunn, as he already missed over 400 days with this injury.
Tonight will be Justin Dunn’s first career start at Wrigley Field. His only other career start against the Cubs was his second start this season: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HR.
Wade Miley will be making just his fifth start of the season tonight, and his first start since June 10th. This will be Miley’s first start against the Reds since they controversially placed him on waivers last November. Miley’s 2022 season has been full of injuries, including inflammation in his elbow and a right shoulder strain. Miley was quoted in the Chicago Sun-Times for saying “he hasn’t pitched pain-free in five years” and that he is try to prove to people “that he is not broke.” Miley was gracious in his comments this spring about his time with the Reds and GM Nick Krall, but did question if the Reds are trying to win.
Miley has looked good this season when he has pitched. Miley has made four rehab starts with the Cubs (3 at Triple-A, 1 at High-A) with a 2.84 ERA/3.27 FIP. However, he had a setback between starts #3 and #4, and went 15 days between starts. Miley only threw 55 pitches in his last start on 8/31. It’s unlikely that Miley will be able pitch very deep into the game tonight.
Miley has a career 3.11 ERA in 11 starts against the Reds, with the last start coming back in 2019. The Reds beat Miley in a surprising sweep at GABP of the eventual American League champion Astros.
Starting Lineups
Update: Nick Senzel was scratched from the starting lineup and replaced by Albert Almora Jr.
News and Notes
Albert Almora Jr. was activated from his rehab assignment and Colin Moran was designated for assignment to create the roster spot. This leaves the Reds will only one backup infielder (Alejo Lopez) and six outfielders (Almora, Senzel, Fraley, Aquino, Friedl and Fairchild). This might make one believe that Nick Senzel will see some more time in the infield over the final few weeks of the season.
Hunter Greene is set to make his second rehab start with the Triple-A Louisville Bats tonight at 6:35 PM. Greene threw 28 pitches, and some additional in the bullpen following his first rehab start. If all goes well tonight, Greene could make his next start with the big league club. Matt Reynolds is also in the Bats lineup tonight making another rehab start.
Jonathan India is back in the lineup tonight after having to leave Sunday’s game after fouling a ball off his leg. This appears to be a good sign for India, who has had a very difficult season with injuries. India has turned his season around, hitting .304/.386/.489 with a 139 wRC+ in the second half.
Conclusion
Tonight should be a fun game against a former pitcher, despite being in the middle of a lost season. Wade Miley is the exact type of pitcher that seemingly would have had his way with a much better Reds roster a year ago, but this year the Reds have actually hit LHP (.712 OPS) much better than RHP (.682 OPS). Kyle Farmer (.901 OPS vs LHP) and Donovan Solano (.854 OPS) have been the Reds best hitters vs LHP, but watch out for Spencer Steer. Between all levels this year, Steer is hitting .333/.411/.616 with a 1.027 OPS vs LHP. Steer has destroyed LHP for his entire minor league career.
Go Reds!
Love Wade but let’s beat him up tonight. Steer has not had a hit since debut, right? Due for a big game or not 🙂 he might got all his hits of the month in that first game. Go Reds, beat them Cubs.
Nick Senzel scratched with a r ankle sprain. That must have been the play in CF where he came up gimpy and the runner tagged to 2b.
Well nuts!!!
Poor Senzel. If there is a way to get injured his body will. Still though comparatively speaking he’s been one of the more durable players this year. Crazy.
Let’s beat up the Stupid Cubs in their own house tonight.
There are six INF on 28 man roster. India, Farmer, Barrero, Solano, Steer, and Lopez.
Two of those can be back-up if an OF serves as DH.
I do hope Miley pitches well.
Funny how a year later Reds r in shambles when all they had to do was let 2022 season play out. Reds could be in thick playoff run. We will never know.
Thank you Reds organization.
Looking at the lineups realizing I don’t care about the analytical stuff.
Analytical and metrics have ruined the game. Thankfully the shift is going away. Maybe baseball will be exciting again with bunting, hit and run, stealing,
I couldn’t agree more. “Modern” baseball feels reminds me of the 4 corners offense in basketball- boring.
Man, I wish we had an edit button
We agree again LDS.. hahahaha
Edit, and Thumbs up would be nice
Tend to agree. Maybe not “ruined” it, but if we take it so seriously, we might as well be playing stats baseball via computer.
I’ll be glad to see the shift go away. I do wish more teams would emphasize basic hitting and bunting rather than swing for the fences. I miss that kind of a game.
I was a proponent of advanced metrics for a long time, but I agree Kevin, it may be smarter baseball but it is far from entertaining baseball.
I don’t care what a batter’s advance metrics say, if he is hitting under .230, in my view, he stinks.
I am also among the older set, but I think OBP indicates a batter’s value better than the batting average.
A good hitter will take a walk if that is there for the taking. BA does not acknowledge or give credit for that.
Notice that lopez after yet another multi hit game is gone……. missing
and now the Cubs are redding in the feild
Greene 48 pitches, 28 strikes to get thru 2 innings. Struck out 6, allowing 1 ER.
Why do we even pitch to that guy?
Isn’t insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result?
Just walk Happ every time. Far less damage.
But hey, at least we touched up Wade for 2 and ran his pitch count way up for the first inning.
Well, we’re letting Miley off the hook with his pitch count now. Let’s reverse that trend, please.
Happ is the ultimate Reds killer. Giving him anything decent to hit is just asking for punishment.
Happ is a FA in 2024 and played at UC and loves GABP. Ultimate Swiss army knife with versatility and Switch hitter
Crushed it for a lazy fly ball
thank goodness we have catchers that can throw out base stealers
Cowboy … “If you want to get India out of the lineup, you’re going to have to slit his throat.”
The man knows how to turn a phrase 😀
Farm Dawg!!
Hardest parts of the cycle in the books.
@Kevin H and others regarding the analytics and shift:: Also relegated to the dustbin with 4 corners Hoops was the old Wishbone (3 RB format) and “4 yards and a cloud of dust” of the 1970s college football heavyweights. Players and coaches adjust, I just find it disturbing that baseball wants to force the shift issue with a rule. Get the right guys on, hit singles like Donnie Barrels or Lopez and even David Bell will call a double steal or hit and run.
Learn how to bunt, adjust timing to where it’s pitched, “hit them where they ain’t” and figure out why the defense plays Kyle Farmer straight away.
If hitters can’t learn how to do these things and starting pitchers can’t establish enough command to go 6-7 innings most outings, they don’t belong in a starting lineup.
The 1975 Reds had 4 coaches under Sparky Anderson and used about 30 players. The 2022 Reds under David Bell have 13 coaches and have used at least double the number of players. Time for a different approach to say the least.
And then we see the “pistol” which somewhat brings back the RB situation you noted.
In the end, the fact that players couldn’t or maybe wouldn’t adjust is problematic.
That comparison of the number of coaches is astounding. Just how specialized do you need to get?
+1,000,000. Guys like Carew, Brett, Rose, Gwynn, and countless others would be having a field day.
@DD
Enjoy reading your posts. But, young players at 13-14 years old do what their Dads and coaches tell them to do and its now back to 10 years old. My son played on a young travel team years ago that taught a productive out to the right side with a runner at 2nd and no outs was something to be celebrated. He got high fives hitting the ball the opposite way or making a productive out to score a run. They were taught to start batting practice hitting line drives to the opposite field and let the ball travel and do your job to score runs for the team. Then, in high school it all changed. It was launch angle and exit velocity and new wave coaches and that’s what college coaches and prospect camps want. You cant teach Austin Hedrick to hit to the opposite field. its too late. Hes been conditioned for 5-7 years on how to hit(or not hit)
The only way to go back to real baseball is to set rules that disincentive the 2 outcome at bat and get back to action.
Correlation vs. causation. Descriptive vs. prescriptive. There are domains in corporate America pulling back. Baseball will eventually, though it may take someone winning the WS with a cheap payroll and a non-analytics approach. And it may take another generation. Modern baseball is simply revenge of the nerds.
We see the shift differently. Football has the offside rule. To me regulating the shift is analogous to the offside rule. Or, from another angle, it matches up with requiring the offense (in football) to be set until the ball is snapped.
We won’t know for sure how the regulation of the shift will work until the specific rules are announced. However, all indications are it will require that 2 infielders must lined up on each side of 2B. At some point they will be released to move. Most likely that is going to be when the pitcher releases the pitch.
Presume a fielder in the 3B zone is aligned as closely as allowed to SS, a fielder in the SS zone is aligned as nearly up the middle as allowed (presumably almost directly behind 2B and as deep as permitted) and a fielder in the 2B zone is as close to 1B and as deep as allowed.
From these positions, if the fielders are in motion as soon as permitted, they are not going to be that far removed from where most shifts are aligned now when a pitch reaches the plate. They could even play games with the batters by not switching some times or jumping into traditional alignments at others.
The result could end up to be more movement and excitement than ever before.
.
supposed walking corpse wash up kyle farmer is now only a double and a single away from the cycle
Dawg is hungry, taking big bites today
When are the Reds pitchers going to stop throwing meatballs to Ian Happ of the Cubs? He has feasted on Reds pitching for years and in this old Reds fan’s opinion is one of only a couple of Cub batters who can hurt you at the plate now that Rizzo is gone!
Apparently the 12th of never
Ok. Way to go Kyle. Crushing washed up lefty .
Let’s review this again September style:
Kyle Farmer stats in 2022:
Against lefties:
.301/.380/.520/.900
Against righties:
.243/.300/.307/.607
Donovan Solano:
Against lefties:
.338/.390/.465/.855
Against righties:
.293/.347/.383/.730
If I am going to spend $5 mil on a vet DH and righty bat in 2023 to mentor young guys…its on Solano.
Make Kyle Farmer the backup catcher and backup 3B. See if he’d sign a cheap extension. A backup catcher hitting what Farmer does would be one of the best in the league.
Solano as main DH next year.
Big Q is how much it would cost for both?
We have no idea if Farmer can handle catching anymore. He’s been out of that game for quite some time. And how much did he actually catch at the MLB level before his move to our club?
I think it’s time to let him go somewhere else. And I like the guy. I really do.
You never know. He’s an athlete and would be much better offensively than any backup we have now. Try it in Spring Training and see if it would work.
KF loves CIncy and would like to stay. Maybe this is the wy to t=do it.
Right there with you Mark
For Mark and anyone wondering>>>
Kyle Farmer (per BBRef) has made a grand total of 19 MLB appearances as a catcher. 4 of them with the Dodgers and 15 with the Reds in 2021.
Ready accessible minor league data is sketchy but from what a could find, catcher was never his primary post in the minors. He seems to have been a jack of all positions with more emphasis on 3b/2b/1b.
Deeper digging on Farmer turned up data that he did catch quite a bit in the minors, maybe about 350 games. The Dodgers eventually proofed him at 3B then brought him up to MLB and used him very little as a C.
If Farmer really wants to stay a Red then backup catcher would be his best shot.
couldn’t we have 2 vets to mentor our young guys Old School? We only have $45 million on books for 2023. I’ve held my tongue on Senzel all year to give him the benefit of the doubt. That is over, Nick is simply not worth a roster spot. I believe he is estimated to make $3M in 2023. He simply isn’t worth that.
I don’t want Farmer at shortstop but I do believe he brings more value than Senzel at this point in their respective careers. He is certainly more durable.
I’d say to do that, the FO needs to lose about 230 pounds of Moose.
Seriously, though, the 40-man and how we protect the stable of prospects plays into all of this. I may not be ready to throw it in on Senzel, but I do get your point.
Look at the aging curve at 32 for infielders at skill positions
Scooter Gennett-fell off the planet at 29.RLN wanted $50 million
Zack Cozart -couldn’t finish his contract.RLN wanted $50 million
Didi Gregorios-DFA’d by the Phillies. RLN wanted $50 million
Andrelton Simmons-shadow of himself
FreddY Galvis-awful
How’s Mike Moustakis looking at 33? RLN got $64 million. 33 year old utility players who cant hit righties cant play SS either.
How do you know if Solano wants to be a Red. If I was him I wouldn’t.
+500
Because he said he wants to and to mentor Barrero and others and the Reds FO said they will keep him to be a mentor and a pro and an example and he said he liked that role.
And the squeezing of yet another HP Chumpire is erased with a GIDP.
Anybody else listening to the WLW audio feed? Cowboy just took a HUGE swipe at the ump. It was very funny and quite appropriate.
Again, time for a robo ump to indicate balls & strikes! This from a baseball traditionalist who still doesn’t like the DH in either league!
+500 and I’m right there with you, Dennis.
Dunn left in just one batter too many.
Umpire missed a strike on pitch before the homer. Umpires don’t realize thst missed call changes the whole at bat.
Not so sure they don’t recognize it. I think they really don’t care. They are supposed to review their performance and improve, but I really don’t see evidence of that. And some are just plain terrible at their jobs.
Yep! Plus the mandatory walk to start the inning which scored on the HR!
Of course … those just continue to bite us in the behind.
Honestly I have no problem with Dunn as 5th starter next year. I think he has done a decent job so far this year after not pitching for so long.
+100
For the record, as much as I detest walks, I was OK with the BB of Happ! Now let’s get those 2 runs back and send the Cubbie fans to the neighborhood bars to drown their sorrows!
still up in the air, as either a late starter or an long reliever…. not horrible that day
A little too much elevation by AA.
Now it comes down to the bullpens! In Bell;s case it’s Reliever Roulette!
Be patient. Strickland will close this game down.
Lol one way or another.
How many calls is this HP Chumpire going to miss tonight? It’s beyond ridiculous.
Now Sanmartin not doing himself any favors. SMH!
At least we’re down to needing just one out to escape this inning.
Bell’s obsession with handedness continues. Morel hits .262 against RH and only .205 against LH. So much for analytics.
Time to switch screens and only casually follow the massacre for a bit. And against the Stupid Cubs no less …
Bell delivers. Over managed again but at least he doesn’t have to worry about running out of pitchers now
HP umpire has to be a Cubs fan or a Chicago resident or both!
Good grief! Three (3) walks in the inning! Let’s get Leslie Nielsen to call balls & strike!
At least Happ struck out for the final out to limit the damage!
Chris welsh just said it.
Reds 2nd most walks in MLB.
Thats the first rule of pitching. Throw Strikes. Derek Johnson doesnt throw strikes.
Derek Johnson has never had to coach pitchers who face similar hitters. Hes a Vandy guy who gets high school All Americans to pitch against hitters from Mercer and Arkansas state and Mississippi State. How easy is it tell Sonny Gray to miss bats at Vandy against Mercer.
Reds walkfest misses bats for sure. Job well done.
I played ball for Mercer. What you got against the Bears?
Thats awesome BR.. Literally random name pulled out of a hat from the South…because they play good college baseball there. Congrats to you. Hitter or pitcher?
Position?
Who is worse? Kuhnel or Warren?
Yes
I’ve been watching on and off tonight — nine walks, one HBP. I hope nobody here is counting on any of these relief pitchers for next year. It’s been absolutely pathetic.
If they start with the bullpen there are not going to be a lot of problems with clearing the 40 man roster over the winter for 1st time eligible rule 5 guys they want to protect.
And with that run I formally Clete.
Catch you all tomorrow.
Awful, nothing else to say.
talk about a colapse
Just wait Tom! We haven’t seen Strickland yet!
Warren, Strickland, Kuhnel should all be DFA’d (clever, I know)
Diaz is the sole RP the Reds should bring back next season! Trade or DFA ALL the rest of the RPs!
2023 needs to be a complete transition year
New manager
New pitching coach
New hittting coach
New roster.
Blow it up.
Old-school, I 100% agree. No way this “coaching” staff should be in charge of developing the young players coming up.
Works for me – start now. Fire Bell, Zinter, and DJ tonight
The problem with the hitting is not Zinter. Tonight’s final four batters in the starting lineup had averages under .200. You can coach guys relentlessly but it won’t matter if they can’t hit.
Tom, it’s seems to be Zinter’s pattern. Certainly the case in SD. Regardless, he’s responsible and the team isn’t performing. In my former world, you’re fired.
Release Warren… Overall the Reds pitching have been poor against the Cubs this year, it has been really embarrassed to get consistently crushed and giving a lot of walks …
Eleven (11) walks and one HBP! Absolutely ridiculous! Worst bullpen staff in MLB! And like Mark Moore, I’m out!
Pitching horrible, can’t say much for the hitting either except Farmer. I also feel the entire staff should be let go, but I know it will not happen. Next year will be as bad or worse than this year unless major changes are made. Good night.
Farmer? You mean the only Red with a hit tonight? This game is a stellar exhibition by the coaching staff, pitching, hitting, managing. But, everyone is happy.
In the 2020 season, David Bell’s Reds rallied a bit at the end to squeak into the playoffs with a 31-29 mark. Then, they set a record in futility by being held scoreless for 22 innings in the WC. In 2021, at the point of the same number of games played as this year, the Reds were 71-61 and in a strong position for another playoff berth until the wheels fell off. Seven straight series were lost and the Reds gave us a preview of this season by winning 40% of their remaining games. This year, after another record in futility with the 3-22 start, the team has become fairly resilient since and lost just 7 more games to the .500 mark. Having about 75% of its roster facing early retirement or a minor league continuance at best has showed some good survival skills to lift the team up periodically. Can they continue after this horrid game or is this the start of the 3rd season ending swoon that may even reach the depths of the dismal 2015 season at 64-98? A finish like last year or the record of all of this year would check that box.