TJ Friedl homered twice in the first game but the Rockies offense was too much as they took game one. In game two it was all Cincinnati as the Reds scored 10 runs with it being capped by an Aristides Aquino grand slam in a 10-0 win to split the day’s games and take the series victory over Colorado.
Game One
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies (57-77) |
8 | 8 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds (52-79) | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| W: Marquez (8-10) L: Kuhnel (2-3) |
|||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Offense
Cincinnati didn’t have a hit until the bottom of the 4th inning when TJ Friedl hit a leadoff homer to give the Reds a 1-0 lead. He would also have the team’s next hit when he hit his second homer of the day – another solo shot – in the 6th inning.
Trailing 5-2 when the bottom of the 8th began, Colin Moran started the inning with a walk. Jonathan India then extended his hitting streak to 16 games with a 447-foot 2-run homer to cut the Rockies lead to 5-4. After the Rockies added to their lead in the top of the 9th, Cincinnati got a 2-out walk from Spencer Steer but Jose Barrero flew out to center to end the game.
The Pitching
Nick Lodolo was dominant in game one for the Reds. The rookie left-hander went out and allowed just two hits and a walk in 6.0 shutout innings while striking out nine batters. With the Reds holding a 1-0 lead in his time on the mound he was pitching in a close game throughout. Cincinnati would score another run in the bottom of the 6th to give him a 2-0 lead as he exited the game.
With Lodolo out of the game things started to go the Rockies way. Joel Kuhnel entered the game and allowed all four batters he faced to reach, including a bases loaded walk to bring in the first run for Colorado. Buck Farmer took over with the bases loaded and no outs and struck out Garrett Hampson. The Rockies called Charlie Blackmon off of the bench to pinch hit and after a wild pitch brought in the tying run and moved the other two runners up a base, Blackmon singled them both in to make it a 4-2 game. All four runs were charged to Kuhnel.
Colorado extended their lead to 5-2 in the 8th on a walk and a bloop double that was just out of the reach of Jonathan India with two outs. In the 9th inning the Rockies padded their lead on a fielders choice where Jose Barrero threw wide of the plate to make it 6-4. Art Warren then served up a 2-run homer to make it 8-4.
Game Two
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies (57-78) |
0 | 4 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds (53-79) | 10 | 9 | 0 |
| W: Law (2-1) L: Urena (3-6) |
|||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Offense
Cincinnati picked up a single in each of the first three innings but they couldn’t do much with it. But in the 4th inning they came through with runners on. Kyle Farmer walked to start the inning and scored on a Jake Fraley double. Then Nick Senzel, Alejo Lopez, and Jose Barrero all followed with singles. Chuckie Robinson grounded the ball to third and Ryan McMahon came up firing home to try and beat Lopez to the plate but threw the ball way past the catcher and both Lopez and Barrero scored to make it 5-0.
Cincinnati added to their lead in the 6th inning when Nick Senzel led off with a double, stole third base, and then scored on a fielders choice when Alejo Lopez grounded the ball to shortstop and Alan Trejo’s throw was up the first base line a bit to allow Senzel to score. That was just the beginning of things. Jose Barrero and TJ Friedl would both walk after a pitching change to load the bases before Aristides Aquino unloaded them with a grand slam to make it 10-0. That was the last time the Reds would cross the plate but it was more than enough to earn the split on the day and pick up the series win.
The Pitching
Chase Anderson had to pitch in extra’s the other day and that likely kept his pitch count a little lower than it otherwise would have been on the day. Still, he wasn’t expected to go deep as he’d been a reliever for the last month in the minors, but he gave the Reds 2.2 hitless innings. When he exited the game there were two runners on base via the walk, but Derek Law stranded them both. He would then pitch a shutout 1.2 innings moving forward before giving way to Ian Gibaut who entered with the bases loaded and two outs in the 5th, but he was able to get Charlie Blackmon to fly out to end the threat.
Gibaut would toss a shutout 6th inning before giving way to Dauri Moreta for the top of the 7th. Moreta had to work around two walks but he fired off two shutout innings as he held the Reds lead at 10-0. Hunter Strickland took over for the 9th and had to work around a 1-out walk, but he did just that to complete the shutout victory for the Reds.
Notes Worth Noting
Jonathan India’s hit streak ended at 16 games when he had to exit game two after fouling a ball off of his calf. After the game manager David Bell noted that the team wanted to be precautionary given the leg issues India suffered during the Field of Dreams game. He was checked out and everything was fine.
David Bell says all is OK with Jonathan India after he was examined. Just precautionary after his Field of Dreams leg injury. India should be good to play Tuesday in Chicago.
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) September 4, 2022
Dauri Moreta gave up five earned runs without recording an out on May 11th. It was the 4th straight appearance he allowed at least one run and at least one homer. His ERA was 9.88 after the game and he was sent back to Triple-A Louisville. He returned on June 19th and has been up-and-down a few times since then, but he’s made 17 appearances for the Reds since then and has thrown 20.0 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 5 walks, 17 strikeouts, and has allowed just 2 home runs.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Tuesday September 6th, 7:40pm ET
Justin Dunn (1-2, 4.63 ERA) vs Wade Miley (1-0, 2.84 ERA)
Good team win.Starting to wonder if Friedl or Fraley or both could be part of the outfield next year.Could either hit 20 homers and get on base at league average?Friedl also has speed and plays a good centerfield.No reason not to give them a shot IMO and see.We need some more lefties swingers and maybe you balance it out with Fairchild from the right side for at least half of the season
Still don’t see the appeal of Fraley. Not a good defender. And strictly a platoon player. Can’t hit LH. I’d say put the money elsewhere.
Two years how was calling Winker a poor defensive platoon player and then he only hit .300 and became an all star
Fraley has just over 400 career ABs – not quite time to slap with “platoon” label yet
DHud, in his all star year, Winker hit .177 against LH and .346 against RH. His OPS split was .572/1.070. Fraley, this year, is .091/.282 with an OPS of .258/.925. Both are platoon players. Winker was just better last year than Fraley this. Trading Winker was a good move. The return could have been. Maybe Williamson and/or Phillips make good. But, Fraley and Dunn, I’m very skeptical.
And as for the number of ABs, remember Barrero has about 200, Aquino about 600, and at least half the folks here have written them both off. Castellanos, last year, had L/R splits of .306/.310 and Benintendi, whom some here are advocating as a FA signing has splits of .269/.318. Those are the kind of OF’ers that Cincinnati needs to compete, not platoon and utility players.
And do you think those players that are good vs both RH and LH are easy to find? Benintendi is great by me, but i highly doubt they sign him. Seems more like we should be using what we have and if that players strength is a platoon then why wouldnt you take that route?
Nothing wrong with platooning as long as both halves of the platoon are good. Without checking, I’d bet that handedness splits have always been there. Really good players might minimize the fall-off and/or provide too much value defensively to platoon.
Reds platooned LF in 1961. Again LF in 1970. Also 1B in 1990. It works.
Friedl, Fraley, Lopez – all age 26-27, peak years analytically. Is there any chance any one of them becomes a late developing-borderline star akin to Justin Turner (alas a former Red MiLBer)? Unlikely.
Is each pretty clearly proving to be a useful MLB player? Yes, but even with platoon play and situationally excellent managing, is there any excelling trait which can pull a team into contention? Again, unlikely.
They need to be competing for the 5th/6th position player slots. It will not be a real good team if 2 or 3 of them are on the 26 man roster.
Friedl has speed, defense, on base ability, some power, and is probably the best bunter in the league. Those are all useful traits for a contender. I don’t like today’s mindset where those aren’t considered desirable traits. Someone who can consistently bunt is a unicorn that is missing from the modern game and can put a team over the top.
Optimist- have you looked at the stats for iur outfielders that got the majority of the starts the first 3 1/2months of this year. An outfield of fraley, Friedl and Fairchild would be much better. Certainly not all stars but they couldn’t be worse. Senzel, Almora, and Aquino we’re absolutely horrible offensively this year. Naquin was the only one who was borderline league average.
Friedl may be the most appealing of these 3 largely due to defensive ability, and less so for the offense, bunting included, though that is tremendous skill but with little value in today’s game.
Redsvol, it’s extremely doubtful that anyone on this years roster would be “much better” than anyone else on this years roster in the OF. Leaving Aquino aside for a moment, the 3 Fs are essentially younger, and very unproven, versions of Pham, Almora and Naquin. They may develop, but into what? That was my point. All 6 of them are essentially league average OFers, at best – the three older ones have proven so, the three younger ones may become that.
Winker and Aquino are differing wildcards – Winker does have a notable all-star platoon skill, and managed around his limitations is much more than a 4th/5th piece/league average player. Aquino, of course, is a classic very high ceiling player, but the floor is proving to be incapable of getting managed into the role Winker is carving out.
It’s not overly optimistic to see next year’s team finish the season with a nice infield, and a promising and deep starting staff.
Alas, they’ve shown they can find a barely average outfield, and a disastrous bullpen. I’m a realistic optimist so I’m still waiting to see if they can improve either of those.
Bunting well has tremendous value in today’s game. The mindset that it doesn’t is part of the problem. A good bunter can wreak havoc against today’s defenses and with all the players unable to get a bunt down when needed, it’s even more valuable a tool. So I strongly disagree with that assessment.
Luke, I agree on Friedl’s bunting being a good skill to have, especially as a LHH. And I’m not very fond of the (sacrifice) bunt in general. Essentially he can erase the potential of a shift against him because he’s always a danger to lay one down the 3B line.
A Suicide Squeeze is one of the most exciting plays in the game, and that isn’t going to happen if you don’t know how to bunt. As the Reds get younger, maybe we’ll start to see the plays that speed can produce.
Friedl has all of the tangibles to bring a team to the next level. His tenacity and speed will bring players next to him up to the next level just because. Think about the fact that he has spent most of the season in Louisville, yet when he comes back to the Reds, he still leads the team in stolen bases.
His personality seems to be more about the team, and not as an individual, which we all know has brought down many teams in the past.
They have a good core outfield, and a decent infield. I personally would like to see them figure out the bullpen.
@Roger I think you will see both Friedl and Farley on the team next year. Actually I think next year will be a continuation of this year. We may see some 1 year signings like Minor and Pham but any real spending will not occur until Votto and Moose are off the books. They will keep walking some prospects up the ladder and build more innings on the young rotation but once again the bull pen will be filled with low dollar vets and youngsters.
Also Bell will be the manager. He like us knows this is about budget and keeps his mouth shut. He is also able to do it with keeping the older players and youngsters co-existing while this process plays out. It will be another year of non competitive baseball.
I agree, they won’t be competitive. Sadly, they won’t be competitive after Moose & Votto are gone. And if they had a decent FO/GM, Moustakas would be gone now.
There is not going to be in new spending even after Votto and Moustakas’ contracts expire.
This is why people become disappointed. There has been no indication by Nick Krall or the Castellinis that the Reds are going to spend money after Joey and Moose’s contract expire. In fact, it has been quite the opposite. The plan is to go as far as the young players will take them. They may sign some one year deals at the end of Spring Training, but a lot of people are going to be disappointed if they are counting on The Reds to jump into the Free agent market anytime soon. They likely won’t even extend the players who come up through their system. The Castellinis and multi year contracts are through.
Horrible to consider if they start missing on the position player 1-year FA/waiver pickups like they’ve been missing on the bullpen signings/pickups.
You really think they should say something about what will happen in 2 years? No business man would do that
Maybe with that negative attitude there won’t be competitive baseball!!!
You need to have confidence and swagger, confidence = winning. Trust me on this one!
Disagree with many of these comments. Reds are aligning payroll to resources. The Reds lost money in the covid year. The Reds payroll and resources should support a $120-150M payroll in future years. They could save some money in 2023 and invest in prospects or roll the money into 2024 for more payroll and free agency in a future year. When Votto and Moose come off the books, that’s almost half their payroll available to spend. The Reds will spend in free agency in 2024 or 2025, or they will make trades to add good players that have a decent salary. I don’t see the Reds sitting on a $40-50M payroll in 2024 and 2025. They haven’t done that in the past and have shown no sign to do that. The real question is what will they spend their extra $75M or so annually in payroll in 2024 and 2025. This will be what determines how good they will be. They will spend and I hope they spend/get some really good players to push the team over the top to contend. A lot of the Reds moves have been great. They are set up well to compete with a lot of flexibility in payroll and a good farm system in the upcoming years.
Not that confidence is a bad thing, but if a duck were confident that it could whip a grizzly bear, the outcome would still be a few feathers drifting in the breeze and a bear licking its chops.
@Alex, I agree with you. Krall said he wanted to avoid extremes. If he doesn’t spend money in 23, and 24 we will likely have an extremely bad couple of seasons, 23 especially.
Minor 10M, Castillo 7.35M, Shogo 7M, Pham 6M, Mahle 5.2M, Solano 4.5M, Naquin 4M, Farmer 3.15M, Wilson 2.3M, Strickland 1.82M, Cessa 1.8M
That’s 49M coming off in 23.
Moose gets a 2M raise, Senzel if they keep him will probably get a 1M raise. I can’t see Sims getting much of a raise, maybe Hoffman, but he’s likely nontended. Dunn might get a 1M raise, but we are dealing in small potatoes here.
Lets say the Reds, after arb, and league min guys are added to replace the slew of contracts lost, there should still be 40+M available in 23, and in 24 we’d shed 43M more. We are at 115M this season which is probably 5M under Krall’s budget. So he’s going to have almost 90M to play with, some will go to our young guys in Arb, but most will be available to FA’s over the next couple of years.
You better believe they will be. Align payroll with resources, remember. And they’ve done pretty well with their opportunities. Best if both worlds for the FO.
I kept shaking my head and laughing at the state of Lopez’s uniform. You could barely make out his number for the mud on the front.
He’s a good man to have on your team. Whether the Reds will keep him?….I doubt it. if Senzel and/or Farmer are gone. Maybe.
I hear everyone keep carrying on about Friedl( believe he is a keeper) Faichild, Fraley and now Steer, but nobody mentions this kid, who plays great defense, a good baserunner, and CAN HIT. Lopez should stick no matter what.
There are a couple of guys in AA that could be good ML outfielders.
Mike Siani is one; but again, speed and not much power.
Many have speculated that De La Cruz destiny is in Centerfield. He would (potentially) bring a lot of power to that position.
There is also the possibility that has been voiced (elsewhere) that Jonathan India’s future is in left field.
This could be a lineup in 2024
Friedl (Leadoff, right field), or Mike Siani (both left handers)
India (left field)/ Fraley could play some games against RH pitching
De La Cruz (center field), switch hitter
Steer (Third base), RH hitter
McGarry (1st base, left hand hitter/Encarnacion- Strand right hander)
Tyler Stephenson (catcher, or bat him 5th instead of Steer)
McClain (2nd Base , or Alejo Lopez, who will have less power but hit for a better average)
Jose Barrero (Shortstop)
Potentially, a very talented but a very young and “green” lineup, except for India and Stephenson
Looking at these guys, this could be a pretty good team, if the rotation gets better (with experience) and they can build a good bullpen (money available with Votto and Moustakas gone).
This is a future to get excited about. Some of these guys may appear in 2023 in Great American ball park.
Hopkins and Cerda are also OF’ers in AA (or above now in Hopkins case) that are having solid years. Cerda has some contact/hitting for average issues he needs to work on, but is very skilled across the board and his currently sporting an OPS higher than Siani. Both should be in the future OF mix conversation.
i know this will never happen but I wish ownership would use the money saved when Moose and Votto come off the books to invest in gabp. I would like to see a retractable roof, artificial turf, higher walls moved back about 10 feet.
the weather actually has been pretty good for baseball up until this weekend for the reds but it is unpredictable in Cincy. I think this weekend would have been a fairly highly attended weekend if not for rainy weather. Look at how much success the Brewers have had when they moved from Milwaukee county stadium to Miller park. I think attendance would really pick up and at least would be more consistent. you could at least take the variable of weather out of the equation when budgeting
I’ve always liked the idea of a retractable roof. Don’t know that it will ever happen though. Maybe some day.
My father was an engineer and worked on Riverfront Stadium. He always felt they could have designed that Stadium with a dome without much additional cost. Before they built Riverfront, one plan had Hamilton County building a dome stadium in Sharonville, north of downtown.
Astroturf… ew
I have never attended a baseball game under a dome. I attended a game in Milwaukee once but the roof was opened. I have been to football under a dome and did not care much for it.
The money saved on Votto and Moustakas would amount to less than 10% of what it would cost to put a retractable roof on the Stadium. With the space limitations in what was called the Wedge, there probably isn’t even room to do it as you would be building a new structure around the existing one.
Fraley gives you a nice at bat. His stats are skewed in 2022 by a woeful April in which he went 5-43, hitting .116 with an OPS of .443.
Since coming back from injury and since the AS break, Fraley is raking at a .302/.387/.573/.960 clip.
I’m not willing to label him a platoon player yet for sample size reasons. But, if you want to play the platoon game, you have to look at the other side of the splits too against RH pitching which is 3/4 of starting pitching and at bats. Against Righties, Fraley is an All-star.
.274/.363/.538/.901.
Fraley is a nice lefty hitter at major league minimum salary who certainly fits into the 5 man OF puzzle.
I did a little deeper dive into Fraley’s handedness splits for 2022 at BBref. Verus LH pitching, he is an unmitigated disaster with .258 OPS, but it is only 24PA, so small sample warnings are in order.
However, in the games he started when the opposition starting pitcher was LH (4), Fraley has a whole game OPS of .758 (32PAs). This is because the figure includes all PAs in the games, including versus relievers who were RH pitchers.
The bottom line as I see it is to avoid Fraley facing a LH pitcher in a leverage situation at virtually any point because the outcome will likely be bad. However, if the opposition lacks LH relievers to spot against Fraley as the game progresses, he will do damage when facing a RH reliever later on in the game.
These are great points. No hitter is going to have favorable matchups in every plate appearance. But the available value Fraley brings against RHP will far outweigh the small percentage of PAs where the Reds can’t avoid a bad matchup in a high leverage situation.
What’s everyone’s thoughts on how long Senzel gets to keep regular ABs? Career -1.2 bWAR over 990 PA. Career 75 OPS+ (69 this season). Baseline statistics are just a tick below last season’s but just a tick above in advanced stats due to league offense being down overall. Below average CF according to DRS. And of course there’s the injury issues that have plagued him. Does that excuse his lack of output, even with regular playing time this season? Does that make it more likely he doesn’t reach the level of hype that he had as a prospect?
I was stanning for Friedl before he came up. I am also in favor of giving Fairchild and Fraley regular time as we move into next season. A comparison for the season –
Friedl: 1.1 bWAR 115 OPS+ in 142 PA 3 DRS in 2022.
Fairchild: 0.5 bWAR 144 OPS+ in 41 PA 3 DRS in 2022 with the Reds.
Fraley : 0.2 bWAR 114 OPS+ in 159 PA -6 DRS in 2022.
Senzel: -0.6 bWAR 69 OPS+ in 374 PA -9 DRS in 2022.
Obviously we are working with small sample sizes overall for everyone other than Senzel, especially Fairchild. But, is anyone convinced Senzel is a better hitter or defender than the others? Probably a better defender than Fraley due to the fact that he can play CF capable-ish. They’re all pretty close in age with Senzel and Fraley 27, Friedl and Fairchild 26.
It’s easy to mix in the 4 (especially as two are RH and two are LH hitters) in the OF to get everyone playing time. I’m not saying give up on Senzel, as he is only now reaching his prime. I’m just not sure he’s an automatic “starter” going into next season. I’d definitely not stunt anyone’s development to try to get lil Senzi “going”, so it may all come down to how everyone starts off next year.
Thoughts?
For 2022, I’d like to see Friedl and Fairchild in the lineup every day. The key for both players is to see if they can sustain their production and that’s something we can only learn through playing time.
I see Fraley as a platoon player, but one with great value. He’s among the Red’s best against RHP and RHPs pitch between 75 and 80 percent of all plate appearances. Senzel is historically very strong against LHP, so there’s a potential pairing. Senzel is an enigma. To my untrained eye, he appears to have lost strength at the plate. After dealing with a slew of injuries, the offseason may provide the time he needs to get his body back into top playing condition.
Defensively, the best lineup using these 4 players would be Fraley/Senzel in LF, Friedl in CF and Fairchild in RF. Fraley’s main defensive weakness is his arm–LF mitigates his weakness.
A month ago, I was hoping the Reds would target Benintendi as a free agent in the offseason. But coupling his injury with the production Fraley, Friedl and Fairchild are generating, I’m reconsidering my position.
Makes sense. I can see Fraley and Senzel forming a platoon. May even see a guy like Hopkins get some time in the OF too.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them non-tender Senzel. I suppose that they will try to trade him before that deadline comes up, but he is pretty much a replacement-level guy right now. The three F-Troop outfielders — all of whom were seen as replacement level before this year — are at least as productive now as Senzel has been.
I do not dismiss the idea that Senzel could improve with a regular off-season — one where he is not rehabbing an injury but instead just getting time for some rest/recovery and then building up for next season. But I think at this stage Senzel just isn’t quite good enough. He looks a tad robotic to me, both at the plate and in the outfield, whereas Friedl plays looser and more gracefully.
I am a “no” on Benintendi. He will want $12-15 million more per year than Friedl, and his production isn’t 10 times better than Friedl’s, or really much better at all, though he certainly has a longer track record. If they are going to spend the extra $12 million on a player, use it toward positions where they are thin, such as a one-year contract for a Johnny Cueto (or for that matter, Wade Miley), as a veteran presence for a young staff.
@ED>>> agree on Senzel (and also Farmer) being prime nontender candidates.
Steer is going to displace one of them if he has a solid month of September; and, they could be gone otherwise too.
Don’t look past Matt Reynolds who the Reds held onto at the deadline as a “supersub” candidate. He is Farmer’s age but more importantly perhaps to the Reds, he is not arbitration eligible next for the 2023 season.
While I agree Senzel is vulnerable, he’s not going to command much of an increase over his $1.25M salary via arbitration. He’s actually below replacement level. If the Reds think he’s at his peak, they’ll nontender him. If they believe he needs a “normal” offseason, his salary will not be a factor.
Cmon, the best defensive outfield has Fairchild in right? I know most on this site just remove Aquino, but he is undoubtedly the best defensive outfielder on this team, period.
@Jimbo … “the best lineup using these 4 players would be Fraley/Senzel in LF, Friedl in CF and Fairchild in RF”
No mention of Aquino in my post … at all. Yes, he’s the best defender in RF, and it’s not close. He’s also so bad as a hitter that even as a GG-caliber fielder, he’s still non-playable on a good team. I wish things were different.
Fairchild please, lol, or you might if you heard the way I said in my head. I have to admit, I am not excited for him to get any playing time. I’d rather watch Aquino in RF to end the year, than a AAAA player getting his shot. Next season I don’t want either on the roster, but if we had to have 1 it would be Aquino. If you’re going to have a AAAA player it might as well be one with a plus plus tool.
23 Opening Day
LF India, CF Friedl, RF Fraley, 4th Gilliam/Hopkins
23 Once the Cruz missile arrives
LF India, CF De La Cruz, RF Fraley 4th Friedl
I think Nick Senzel is who he is at this point. He will continue to get opportunities though until someone better comes along or he reaches free agency, whichever is first. I wouldn’t extend him though.
I think Fridel has beat him out for 2023 with their combined performances the last month.
The Reds might just have an emerging outfield roster crunch?
They’ve got 14 pitchers and 14 position players for September
Almora is about ready and will come back on the 28 man roster. Do you carry 6 OF’s? Only if Senzel becomes 1/2 OF and 1/2 back up at 2b and utility INF. But, that would mean Alejo Lopez gets sent down?
They could send Colin Moran to AAA but then have no lefty bats on the roster x fraley/friedl. Moran wont be here next year but neither will the Reds keep all 6 outfielders on the 40 man either.
SO who goes to AAA or gets DFA’d when Almora comes up.
1.) Fairchild gets demoted to AAA
Or
2.) Senzel becomes backup 2b and Lopez gets demoted to AAA
Or
3.) Moran gets demoted to AAA and Reds have no lefty bats in the infield or bench
Or
4.) Aquino gets DFA’d
In Bells current use patterns, with Almora coming back up and Friedl,Fraley and Senzel pretty set in their roles, Fairchild and Aquino are redundant.
They either demote Moran or DFA Almora. I think Lopez deserves the extended play that he’s been getting, and as a switch-hitter, he will be another LH bat to go with Friedl and Fraley.
They’ve gone this far with Aquino, and he is finally making some adjustments, so they may as well see what he does in September. I do think there is a chance that he ends up in Japan next season.
I like Almora as a 5th outfielder, but he is caught in a roster squeeze.
I’m just wondering how much of a roster squeeze is coming and do the Reds start that process now. It seems that lost year of 2020 not only crushed minors player development but also took a year of MLB assessment away on the Rule 5 time clock.
If anyone has a great list on the number of Reds eligible for the rule 5 draft for the first time in December who the Reds cant let leave, that would b great. My quick review and could be wrong, but of the top 30 prospects, Brandon Williamson, Mike Siani, Ivan Johnson and Tyler Callahan would need to be added.
Then there’s non top prospects not on the 40 like Hopkins AAA and Quintana AA( tucker trade) . Reds also have 7 guys on the 60 day IL that will need roster spots in 2023 from Antone to Santillan,Gutierrez, Stephenson, Votto, Overton etc.
Moose and Sims presumably as well.
At some point you gotta make a decision on who is core and who is fringe. You cant have innumerable 4th and 5th outfielders in Fairchild and Aquino and Almora and Senzel and stash Allan Cerda in AA and soon to be Mike Siani in AA and then 2 more presumably core MLB OF’ers in Fraley and Friedl and probably need a FA too next year.
I am sure I messed up on some of the Rule 5 details but the big picture is it seems a roster crunch is coming and that may impact decisions on the 28 man roster starting now.
These are the 20 Position players I’d have on my 2023 40 man roster.
21 STEPHENSON (C)
22 FA C (BENCH) or ROBINSON
23 FREE (AA) ADDED
24 BARRERO (SS)
25 CES (3B)
26 LOPEZ (BENCH)
27 SENZEL (SU)
28 VOTTO (DH)
29 JOHNSON (AA) ADDED
30 MARTE (AA) ADDED
31 McGARRY (1B) ADDED
32 STEER (2B) ADDED
33 QUINTANA (AAA) ADDED
34 FRALEY (RF)
35 FRIEDL (4TH)
36 INDIA (LF)
37 CERDA (AA) ADDED
38 DE LA CRUZ (CF) ADDED
39 GILLIAM (AAA) ADDED
40 SIANI (AA) ADDED
I’d vote to DFA Moran, and have Senzel move around the field. (though I’d DFA Aquino before sending down either Fairchild or Lopez). I’m not concerned about handedness matchups for the rest of the season. I’m concerned about development and playing time. Get guys that are part of the future as many PA’s as possible.
Another potential roster clogger is Matt Reynolds. He’s also on rehab assignment and would necessitate another roster move, which may be they just DFA Reynolds.
I would dfa Moran, Reynolds, Senzel and Strickland. I would definitely keep Lopez, Fairchild, Fraley and Friedl through all of 2023 to see how they do with extended playtime. Aquino might be the 26th player in 2023,
Senzel is also optionable.
Just saying.
Old-school, fangraphs has a decent list of Rule V eligibility, De La Cruz and Marte for starters
Thanks MM.
I guess the 5 years before age 18 really starts young for those Latin players signed as 16 yo teens. Wow. Roster crunch even more than I thought if EDLC and Marte lead off the 40 man newcomers.
Since Votto is iffy for April, if not forever, Moran might survive on a release then a minor league deal while putting him on big league roster for opening day.
I think it’s weird that MLB didn’t schedule the Reds and Cubs to play today on a national holiday–both had scheduled off-days on September 1st. The off-day could have been shifted to Thursday … have I missed something or is this another MLB marketing blunder?
Another strange day for a MLB team to not be playing baseball don’t you think?
Yes.
I had a co-worker I asked Friday if he was watching college football Saturday and he dejectedly said no…he agreed awhile ago to go to the reds game Saturday night with a family group not realizing at the time first true weekend of college football.
Phil knew OSU game, UC, high school , FC cinci and holiday weekend and staffing is horrendous everywhere so Reds probably had no problem taking the off-day knowing last year they wont be good and Football in Ohio is big. Phil knew Reds fans would be watching football this weekend and doing other things on Labor Day.
Did they show the Buckeyes versus Irish on the big screens during the rain delay prior to the cancellation?
Walk up attendance has grown worse and worse al over major league baseball on summer holidays including July 4, Memorial and Labor Days. This is the reason for fewer games. Unlike 10, 15, 20 years ago there are so many more family activities to compete with MLB today, from youth sports tournaments to community festivals. It is a business and they are trying to make money.
If MLB can’t draw crowds on Memorial Day, Independence Day, and Labor Day then baseball is losing it and in big trouble.
I’m sure Phil was disappointed because fans had many other sports options.
Yes, and the Reds also did not play on Memorial Day this year. Baseball, Hot dogs, Apple pie, BUT not Reds I guess is the new thing.
However, Labor Day had to be about the Cubs. Looks like their last scheduled day off was the Friday after the Field of Dreams game (Aug 12). That’s 19 straight days.
The Cubs are in a major slump because of it now holding only a 2 game lead on the Reds before the upcoming 3 game series. It is also worth noting that these same two teams finish out the year with a very unusual 6 game series (to cover PP games).
So, we could witness a competitive drive for 3rd place, which sounds much better than 4th but really isn’t when a win total of about 67 would probably do the trick. Maybe David Bell has an incentive clause in his contract and/or the GM could reiterate “He’s our leader” (again) if 3rd happens. Or, more likely it won’t happen and they will be quiet and “the leader” will still return.
Someone, please tell me there is another possible outcome!
Reds best players who need to be added to the 40 man between now and Dec if Im reading the fangraphs site correctly.
1.) EDLC-20 yo but signed July 2018 as a mid teen
2.) Marte-20 yo but signed early bySeattle
3.) Williamson-Suarez Winker trade.Future lefty SP in 2023 maybe.
4.) Siani-2018 4th round pick in AA CF. C Trent says best defensive OF in Reds system
5.) Levi Stoudt-Acquired in Mahle trade
6.) TJ Hopkins
There are others but I dont think MLB roster-able in 2023.
Matt Reynolds, Aquino, and Almora have no options. They have to be on the 28 man roster.
40 man Roster gymnastics will be starting soon and continuing for a long time.
There are several rules and situations to keep in mind.
>Players on the 40 man roster or 60 day MLB IL at the end of the season must that are not eligible to become free agents must be exposed to outright or release waivers if not retained on the 40 man offseason roster.
>Players NOT on the 40 man roster or 60 day MLB IL at the end of the season that would become Rule 5 eligible do NOT require waiver exposure if NOT placed onto the 40 man roster. They simply become Rule 5 draft eligible.
>A player selected in the Rul5 draft must remain on the 26 man active roster of the selecting team the entire following season or placed on waivers and if not chosen on waivers offered back to the team he was selected from. (Note: a selected player can be placed on the MLB IL but if placed on the IL, he must still be on the 26 man active roster for a minimum of 90 days or the Rule 5 restrictions continue into the following season).
>>>Considering the above, a team doesn’t need to burn a 40 man spot on a player they believe no other team would carry on its 26 man roster for the entire 2023 season.
>>>>>Who in the Reds organization among 1st time eligibles would another team be likely to carry all season on their 26 man roster aside from EDLC?
>>>on the other side of the coin, I think it is likely neither Antone nor Sims are put back onto the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft. They are both very high risks for very uncertain return both on the waiver wire and at Rule 5 time.
>>>>>Both have missed essentially the entire 2022 season, will be arbitration eligible for 2023 and may well require IL time at the start of the season. Antone who will be in his age 28 season is coming off his 2nd TJ surgery; and, the odds for success are long in that situation. Sims will be his age 29 season and has had a variety of health issues. Teams picking them would become responsible for their ongoing rehab. For all these reasons, I think they are poor risks for other teams in both the waiver wiew and Rule 5 draft.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/rule-5-draft
There are a few other tanking teams that could take on year long projects: Cubs, A’s and Nationals come to mind, probably others.
Another risk is that a claimed player gets their development all messed up even when returned to the original team. Its not an ideal situation.
Jim, good points about Sims and Antone. It’s really disappointing about Antone. He was one of my favorite pitchers last year, but overcoming a second TJ surgery is a bit of a long shot.
The Reds could cut about half the 40 man roster without doing any major damage. The entire outfield and most of the bullpen could go. I mean would this team suffer, all that much, if it cut ties with Fairchild, Fraley, Almora, Aquino, Senzel, Reynolds, Moran and the like?
No, but they have to field a team in 2023 and there is a limit to how much can be turned over in a single off season. I’d start with the bullpen though. Write in Diaz in ink. Pencil in Moreta, SanMartin, and if healthy Santillan. That’s about it.
Also, any one or more of Fraley, Fairchild, and Friedl may be keepers even beyond the next couple of years.
Yeah, I mean sometimes teams have to make difficult choices when deciding who gets a coveted roster spot. I just don’t see that much difference in a lot of the Reds players on the bubble.
With all things being equal, I would go with the younger players. I don’t see a light going off for players like Aquino, Reynolds, Moran, Almora or Senzel. I suppose I might give Nick another season, otherwise I don’t think there is much risk letting the others go. Chances are some of them will be around in the Spring, if the Reds want to offer them a minor league contract.
Why would you want to cut players like Fraley, Friedl and Fairchild that are producing at the MLB level? I’ll note Fraley and Friedl are quickly exiting the small sample size zone.
BK, I am not sure if you are responding to my comment, but I guess it depends on what you consider as producing. Fraley is 27, has had over 400 major league at bats and has a career batting average of .212. Fairchild is 26 and has been released at least two times that I know of. I didn’t mention cutting Friedl.
Fraley and Friedl seem like our 2 best current outfielders. I wouldn’t cut either until we have better players on the MLB roster.
@Votto I know you didn’t add Friedl into the mix, but I consider those two 1A and 1B. The rest of the names you mentioned are very cutable.
@VFL> Fairchild has never been released. He was DFA, then claimed on subsequent waivers.
It is not easy to track roster status with all the special COVID related special rules; but it appears Fairchild, even with the bouncing around , has always been on an MLB 40 man roster since prior to being traded to the DBacks for Archie Bradley in 2020.
Something wasn’t right between he and the DBacks org. Clearly they dumped him in a change of scenery deal. Despite doing well in AAA with both Seattle and Frisco, neither gave him an honest look and he was claimed off waivers first by Frisco then by the Reds from Frisco.
The constant through has been the .850-.900OPS range he maintained at AAA through all of this. He is also a more than competent OF at all 3 slots. In his first 41 MLB plate appearances with the Reds, his OPS is .900+. What’s not to like until he demonstrates differently?
V4L, batting average is only one component of hitting. I define production compared to league average. OPS+ and wRC+ are useful metrics:
114 OPS+
116 wRC+
He was above average in both categories last year, too. In short, his production is objectively above average and his trends are positive. If the Reds would play him exclusively in LF, his defense becomes positive, too.
Sorry about lumping Friedl into the discussion when you hadn’t mentioned him.
BK,
I realize some of Fraely’s other metrics are not as bad, I just feel a .212 batting average is still a .212 batting average. Kinda like when people say Arizona is a dry heat, yeah it’s a dry heat, but it’s still 112 degrees lol. Seriously, I just think Fraley is 27 and players don’t usually improve markedly after their 27th year.
I mean it wouldn’t hurt to keep him around, as MBS mentions, just like it wouldn’t hurt to keep Nick Senzel. I just don’t think they are going to be much more than what they are right now.
Jim, you are correct Stuart Fairchild was DFA’d twice before, not cut. Still it seems a distinction without a difference. Two teams decided they were OK with losing him. Perhaps it was a number crunch or any number of other reasons, but it has happened twice, so I don’t think it that far fetched it could happen again.
Until EDLC and a few other prized prospects arrive, I think the Reds should go in the very important rightfield position with Fraley hitting against righthanders and Aquino against lefties. AA, with his sterling defense, can be used in late innings. Let’s face it the evidence is in, AA is not a consistent hitter for long term.
Almora activated, Moran DFA’d.
https://blogredmachine.com/posts/reds-aristides-aquino-keeps-front-office-dreaming-about-what-could-be?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email