The New York Mets just continue to roll, with their latest victims being the Cincinnati Reds. The Mets have now won 14 of their last 16 games. The Reds suffered their first series loss of the second half. They will try to salvage a game in the series finale tomorrow afternoon at 1:10 PM.
|New York Mets (72-39)||6||9||0|
|Cincinnati Reds (44-65)||2||8||0|
|W: Carrasco (13-4) L: Minor (1-9)|
|FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread|
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Mike Minor allowing a 2-run home run to Francisco Lindor with 1 out in the 3rd inning, giving the Mets a 2-0 lead. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 19.3% (from 42.4% to 23.1%).
Jake Fraley continues to impress since returning from the IL. He his a 439 ft home run off Carlos Carrasco. Fraley entered today hitting .421/.450/.579 since returning on 7/30.
Donovan Solano just keeps on hitting. He had another 2-hit night and reached base another time with a walk.
Austin Romine had his first multi-hit game of the season in his 17th game of the season in the big leagues.
Mike Minor was fine, I guess: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR. The Mets are third in MLB in runs scored, so it’s hard to be all that upset with this performance from Minor. He has now allowed 18 home runs in 12 starts, so that is not good. It’s kind of impressive the Mets only scored 4 runs off Minor with him allowing 2 bombs.
The Reds offense is really not doing poor Mike Minor any favors. The Reds have now scored a whopping 31 runs in his 12 starts. That is just 2.6 runs per start.
Not so random thoughts…………..
David Bell made a very puzzling move in the top of the 8th inning when he pinch-hit Alejo Lopez for Jose Barrero with the bases loaded. The Reds were down 4 runs with 2 outs. Put aside the fact that this is a lost season where most of what you are doing should be about the future, and you’d think that one would want to show confidence in Barrero – Alejo Lopez has a whopping 2 extra-base hits in 84 big league at-bats (both doubles) and the catcher Austin Romine was on-deck.
Reds at Mets
Wednesday, 1:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio / MLB Network (out-of-market only)
TJ Zeuch (3.63 ERA/3.65 FIP at AAA) vs Taijuan Walker (3.45 ERA/3.62 FIP)
One COULD say it was a puzzling move. Oh well. It will make for good discussion on here anyway.
Nothing much to explore here…. Outmatched at all phases, including manager’s, by a serious WS winner team contender.
David Bell should not be the Reds manager. Period. Certainly not in 2023.
I will be mildly shock if the Reds fire David Bell before his contract is up. Maybe they fire him at the all-star next season, but even that seems unlikely.
Just as the Reds are not going to pay Moose not to play, they are not going to pay David Bell not to manage.
But it’s not that the Reds are just cheap, I think the Castellinis believe that David Bell is doing a good job with what he has to work with. I think there is at least some merit to that.
The Reds are a mess right now and will likely be a mess next season as well. Firing David Bell is not going to change that. Why fire him and then have to pay another manager? This isn’t my logic, but I think it’s the Castellini’s mindset. They also love David’s father.
If it was up to me, David Bell would have been fired after the team went 3-22. But the team has played near .500 since then and with Bell being forced to use the Mike Minors of the world, it’s a small miracle the team has done as well as it has.
I heard Bell had a 3-year extension, not just a 2-year extension.
This statement is in jest
I have it on good authority, Phil Castellini does not think Bell is doing a good job. They clash all the time.
If Phil thinks Bell is the wrong guy for the job, then he must be the right guy
I’m not sure surrendering 4 ER in 5 IP is “fine”?
Even for Mike MInor.
His ERA (which started above 6.00) actually went UP after yesterday’s outing.
It’s always of interest when facts get in the way of a theory. I’m with you. Four runs in 5.1 innings is a 6.75 ERA for Miley’s part of the game. That pretty much explains why he is 1-9. If that is a fine performance then Hunter Strickland is an ace top drawer reliever who is doing fine work.
Everyone around the team seems to grade him on a *MAJOR* curve. I’m sure he’s a great guy, but yeah, the numbers didn’t get any prettier after last night’s outing.
I think David Bell is a very knowledgeable baseball manager. He lacks a talented roster. His players give there all and he is navigating trying to balance the vets playing time with the rookies. Not a easy task. He has done that very well. While the 3-22 start was beyond terrible he has over achieved going 500 after that. The manager is not the reason we are in the spot we are in.
One last point I have very little faith in ownership that if they did fire him they would get the hire right
Barrero had 3 ABs and struck out all three times. Lopez continued the trend. Who has any confidence that Barrero could have even put a ball in play? It’s harder hitting at the MLB level than at AAA. Barrero is proving it. Barrero has 21 AB and has struck out 12 times. That, sports fans, is a 57% K rate.
My thoughts exactly. This is why Barrero was pinch hit for. There’s a better chance Lopez would have laid his bat on the ball than Barrero. Alas… it didn’t work. But, it wasn’t a bad call by Bell.
There was a lot of interesting chatter on Twitter last night about whether it was better to spend that last out of the 8th inning on a guy who had a better chance of not making an out but almost certainly would not hit a game tying salami or on a guy who was more likely to make an out but also very capable of tying the game with a single swing of the bat.
I am not sure there is a right or wrong choice here, just a choice between a rock and hard place where one takes the result and gets on with life.
Got to hit the ball to hit a salami. Slider, slider, slider. Can’t hit ’em.
“It’s harder to hit at the major league level than at AAA”. So true Doc. This of course doesn’t just apply to Jose Barrero. It applies to Marte, De La Cruz, McClain, Arroyo and the rest. There will be some hits, but there will be lots of misses as well. Which is why penciling all these guys into the 2024 Reds line up is beyond silly.
It is silly, who knows who will pan out, but I’d rather have my rose colored glass’s on that begrudge every move made by the organization. I was a big proponent of signing Drury to a 3 year deal. I currently think they should resign Solano. I want to sign Benintendi, and a legit backup catcher. I want to sign a Closer and a setup man. My wish list will probably not happen, even though there is money available for it. So if they aren’t going to get FA’s to fill holes, then it will be the prospects we have coming up. Which ones turn out to be good, and which are going to be AAAA players is yet to be determined.
MBS, yeah I was just looking at the upcoming free agent class. No one really caught my eye but Edwin Diaz. I’m sure there will be a lot of bidders for his services. Even if the Reds were willing to spend money, this is probably not the off season to do it. I suspect they will sign a couple of relievers, even if they are in the same class of the ones we already have. Perhaps they will sign an outfielder FA who remains unsigned at the end of Spring training. Overall, though the 2023 Reds are going to look pretty similar to the team we have now. Hoping for a better result.
I like the name, T.J. Zeuch, a native of Mason, Ohio, just up the interstate. The Reds need a win in the getaway game.
Aside from the fact that his last name is fun to say (phonetically pronounced Zoyk) I am looking forward to seeing him pitch. Mind you I hope neither of these scenarios play out, but I can’t help but imagine one of the Mets hitting a Zeuch pitch hard and the word ZOYK! flashed across the tv screen (Batman style). Or one of the Reds uttering ZOYKS in his best Casey Kasum voice (Shaggy of Scooby Doo fame). You younger readers will just have to Google it!
I am certainly not a fan of David Bell, but his lifting of Barrero in favor of Lopez was the right move and did not surprise me at all. If Barrero had batted it would have taken three sliders and he goes back to the dugout. Lopez is a contact hitter and had a much better chance at success.
Who can forget Jerry Narron pinch hitting Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton in 2007?
I know, I can forget. Managers….overmanaging. Playing knifey-spooney, lefty-righty.
Happens a lot with kind of lousy teams. Grasping for a win.
The Reds will likely lose today against the Mets. As someone else said, they are overmatched against a team that might make it to the World Series, and win.
The Mets and Dodgers are likely the best teams the Reds regularly face (they beat the Yankees 2 out of 3, and who can figger that?) in 2022. It is no surprise that they are overmatched. We have started a guy that is re-habbing (Dunn) and a guy who can no longer pitch in the Majors (Minor). No surprises.
Don’t expect too much from Zeuch today, either.
Limping to the end of the season…….
How much is that we’re paying Minor per win? Can’t do math (glad it’s one and not zero or makes for even more confusing math) but sure it’s a bargain!
Yeah, yet another Cards retread starting for the Reds today, ugh. Will it set a record for the last alphabetically to start a game in Reds history?
Rooting for the corn field to win on Thursday. Corny I know.
That would be a rain out? Don’t know for a given fact but guessing the reason for the “travel day” on Friday is because it is really a rain make up day. So the house has the odds stack against the corn field!
That would be about $10 million per win, right now. Not counting the offset for trading Amir Garrett away for Minor.
Jake Fraley is on a roll. Time to move him up in the batting order to see if he can sustain at that level.
Otherwise, thankfully I had the distraction of the Bally and Spectrum streaming not working right at my location Tuesday night. The rest of the internet and other streaming services were not impacted. So, maybe it is legit to say the Reds broke part of the internet?
We still have a TV tied to traditional wired cable; so, I could follow along with the game. However, it was something of a more enjoyable (retired) busman’s holiday to chase after figuring out and trying to correct whatever the streaming issue was.
The report on the streaming front is that Microsoft and Google OS devices were back in order in time to play the Reds fold in the 7th (or was it 8th) but Apple devices took until some time after my bedtime to start cooperating again with the Spectrum app. What else is new?
Jim, I had the same problem in Mason. I tried everything, including downloading the Bally app to my Roku menu. Alas, it asked me for my provider, which is Spectrum, and it was another fail. The TV in the basement is on cable, so I was still able to watch, but those who couldn’t were probably better off.
I pine for the days when all you had to do was walk over to the TV set and turn a knob to one of a handful of channels in order to get the Reds game. Yes, I am old … 😉 Nevertheless, the current situation of looking for, finding, logging in, and being able to watch a game is like trying to navigate through molasses. MLB needs to fix this pronto. Why does it need to be so difficult for fans to watch its product?
I am in Spectrum’s Dayton loop which seems less intertwined with the Cincy loop than it was several years back but still….
Bally Twitter picked up on one of my tweets and engaged me in an exchange of DMs. The issue was inside Spectrum. Bally had their app back up and running with the game, even on Apple, quicker than Spectrum did theirs.
This surprised me because it looked like an internal routing or passing of authentication issue inside Spectrum. The retired network guy in me is still puzzling how if Bally could get back their authentication verification from Spectrum, that Spectrum could not pass the info where it needed to go within their network. Oh well.
I know the Reds are averaging well under 3 runs a game when Minor pitches, but what is their record in his starts? In order to just play .500 ball the Reds have to win at a .625 clip when he doesn’t pitch, because they’re losing every time he does. He would single handedly taking this team out of playoff contention next year if he remains in the rotation in 2023. Of all the baffling moves the Minor acquisition is for me the biggest head scratcher. I know somebody has to start every fifth game, but I’m reeeeally hoping that’s not Mike Minor much longer.
The Minor trade was horrible, but it isn’t entirely his fault they lose, and whatever bargain bin find the Reds signed to fill out the rotation probably wouldn’t do any better with no run support. Spending $10 million for Minor was a horrible idea only because they could have gotten the same results for cheaper.
You should probably just accept he will be pitching every fifth day for the rest of the year. There isn’t anyone left that is not on the IL, even the minor league waiver claims in AAA are hitting the IL right now. After the season the Reds will give Minor $1 million to go away and hopefully not attempt another $10 million reclamation project in 23
Donnie Barrels keeps getting it done. I’d like to see him and Schrock platooning DH next year.
Send both Minor and Moustakis packing. Bring up McGarry and Steer and see what they can do
One of the guys you bring up to replace them would have to be a starting pitcher.
This may be very unpopular, but they could always start San Martin again. He was a starter. At least you are giving a young guy some experience.
They could also add Williamson to the 40 man now and bring him up.
Another guy that will HAVE to be put on the 40 man sometime after the season is over.
Bell can let Moose play all year and bat in all types of run scoring opportunites and continue to fail. In a game that means nothing, winning is not the main thing. If it was the Reds would have kept their pitchers instead of trading them. Now in a situation where Barrero could have accidently hit a home run and gained tons of confiidence, Bell didn’t give him a chance. The Reds may not know it but winning a game now means absolutely nothing this season except maybe losing draft position next year
It would have been great if Barrero had batted and hit a homer. But he’d struck out three times already, and it’s pretty clear that the Mets know how to pitch him. I think he’ll figure out how to deal with sliders, but he hasn’t yet, and striking out again would possibly have hurt his confidence more than succeeding would have helped it.
Just when we had gotten to only 20 games under…
We got what we expected from Minor … sadly.
The bigger challenge remains finding a way to get consistent offense. The current sorting is painful. Pointing out this is the first series we’ve lost since the break makes it even more so.
And while DTBell isn’t blameless (some of his moves are very puzzling), I’ll readily admit he was dealt a very weak hand by the FO.
We shall see if we can salvage the getaway game. No doubt the Mets are on a tear and we’re the victims of that streak in part.
It is not like the Reds didn’t have chances Tuesday night. Aquino and Senzel also had big PAs that could have changed the game and struck out in them. For Senzel it was with 2 men on in the 7th. Then Aquino K’d 2 batters ahead of Lopez with 2 men on in the 8th. Aquino also just missed a HR on a flyout with a man on in the 7th,
It is my hope they get Fairchild spun back up at AAA and then give him a legitimate shot at MLB. I understand some folks disagree and get bummed at me saying this; but, how does a team in the Reds situation just walk away from a 26 year old with a career OPS of .900 at AAA (350 PAs over 2 seasons) who can competently cover all 3 OF spots just because his first 30 or so MLB PAs suck? By that logic, Johnny Bench would have been classed a 4A guy in his 1st September MLB look.
Jim, I do enjoy reading your insight and post.. I just disagree with this. Fairchild is a career minor leaguer and while yes he hasn’t had much of a chance, when he has. Its not been pretty.
Also as we know Bell isn’t committed to playing the rookies. While I think it was right decision last night to bring Lopez up as Barrero struck out three times. I can see the other side of the discussion.
My own thought is Bell isnt as bad a manager as some including myself say and or post. He hasn’t been given a fair chance. Last year’s roster proves what they can do and that was in spite of bullpen woes. I truly believe if Bell managed the Yankees he would win.. As they have talent at every corner.
@Kevin>> What makes a guy, any guy, a minor leaguer after 45 MLB PAs, especially a guy who has a career in AAA, not composite minor league, but specifically AAA, OPS of .900 in going on a full season worth of PAs at AAA?
45 PAs is less than 10 games if a guy was just put into the lineup and left there. But in Fairchild’s case, his MLB exposure has been piecemeal which is quite an adjustment, aside from the jump to MLB from AAA, for a guy who has never been a bench player.
If this link transfer correctly, here is Fairchild’s composite AAA record. The top line is his totals. He K’s just under 25% and walks just under 10%. His OBP is .368 out of a .917 OPS. BABIP is .327, ISO is .270. wRC+ is 127.
I just don’t see what there is in those numbers that say he isn’t worth a longer look with a team in the Reds spot. IMO, worst case he is likely as good of a placeholder as Senzel, Aquino or Almora for 2-3 years at a much cheaper pre-arbitration salary.
We used to have good starting pitching and no offense. Now we have neither. Hard to win with neither.
Good starting pitching keeps you in the game and gives you a chance to win.
excellent point. I am not worried about the pitching at all. the offense is obviously our main weakness. Just worried that EDLC, Marte, Arroyo are all “D and 3 guys” like Barrero and Aquino.
D AND 3- good defense, occasionally will hit a home run, occasionally leg out an infield hit and occasionally steal a base. but most times just swing and whiff type players. that is the risk for trading established players for prospects. at least we knee Drury and Naquin could hit
Luis Castillo continues to haunt Yankees
Three starts, three team wins for Castillo. Cashman traded Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals, and Montgomery promptly beat the Yankees. The Cardinals then turned around and shelled Montas, whom Cashman got to replace Montgomery.
I’ve been watching the Yankees, and they are not playing well right now. They are essentially a one-man offense. Rizzo and Stanton are hurt and ; LeMahieu is 34; Gleyber Torres is pretty much so-so; and their SS has 0 homers and a mediocre glove.
And last night, they all ran the bases like they had just dropped acid.
The Astros finally caught the Yankees yesterday, and their pitching is better.
Reds need Fraley to perform. Beside Votto and Moose…only lefty (not counting our two switch hitters)
Friedl has come around to have a really strong year at AAA (AAA seasonal OPS/wRC+ of .828/121; slightly better .874/132 in the ~2 months since he was last in MLB).
In terms of position, I am not sure where he would fit with Fraley in front of him because like Fraley, he is also a LH thrower which limits them both to 1B and OF.
Lots of folks here giving up on Barrero already. This time on for Lopez, a guy Bell and most here were done with weeks ago. Remember, we’ll send Lopez down when Schrock is available. That didn’t work out well. Bottom line, Barrero is probably the best shortstop candidate for the next 2 years and possibly longer. Assuming the other Reds SS prospects continue to progress, they’ll likely shuffle off to other positions. Consequently, it doesn’t matter in the short run if Barrero strikes out 4 times a game, 3-4 games a week. There’s still an upside. BTW, he’s striking out a lot for far less money than Suarez last year. And there are folks here wishing he was still a Red.
Suarez has nothing to do with Barrero, and yes I would still love to have him on the team over Moose, There are probably very few that are upset Suarez was traded. The problem is he was traded while value was low, in what was described as trading Winker to get rid of the Suarez contract. Which hurt the return for Winker and the Reds immediately used any savings on Pham, Salano, and Minor. They were only bailed out because Drury had a career year.
Suarez currently has a OPS+ of 116 and multiple years of control. Drury has only produced slightly better, and Suarez is far better than Farmer with the bat. My guess is Suarez would have at a minimum been a good trade piece this year, certainly not a salary dump.
Barrero probably would have been better off at Louisville until next year. He probably isn’t 100% and is currently being exposed by ML caliber pitching. There is no reason to write him off, he has all year next year to prove he belongs
Agree. Barrero looks great in the field. Looking at his overall track record, 2022 is an outlier statistically–his offense was solid in all other seasons. Given his early season hamate injury and struggles at AAA, expectations should be tempered for the remainder of this season.
Please don’t compare Barrero to Suarez. Suarez is a much better player and in time maybe Barrero will be too. Barrero right now has 12 strikeouts in like 21 ab’s..
This is for OLD SCHOOL in reply to his post last night. Vada Pinson who he did not see had the following numbers.From 1959-1963 , runs 942, hits 985, 2b 186, sb 119 and from 1959-1967 he averaged playing in 154 games. He was a fabulous cf’er who played at the same time as Mays,Flood, and Clemente and thusly only one gold glove. Great player who did not have a great second half of his career. But who does have numbers better than some HOF’s. He is also the only player in history with more than one season of 200hits, 20 hr’s and 20 sb’s. He did it 3 times. I will leave the comparison to Joey to you. I loved them both.
thanks GW. Ill leave it as Votto is the best lefty hitter of the modern generation. Joe Morgan was the best lefty hitter for a multi-year span but played more years as a non-Red in MLB than as a RED and Vada was an under-appreciated 5 tool lefty hitter and one of the greatest Reds ever. Big Klu’s numbers are ridiculous as well.
++on Vada, my first childhood Reds hero and just having him as my #1 Reds hero in the early 1960s led to me learning so much about life in this country aside from the playing fields.
Every time I look up, Barrero is down 0-2 in the count. Yet he’s part of our future & Lopez is not. Let Barrero bat.
Minor needs to go now. It’s not working. Minor gives up another HR! Imagine that.
I feel Bell needs to go. His lineups drive me nuts. Maybe Solano at Cleanup? He hits. Votto isn’t.
Who do you suggest replacing him with?
How about promoting Pat Kelly from AAA?
The front office got so many shortstops at the deadline along with the ones already in the minors they know Barrero is not part of the future
Minor isn’t going anywhere simply because they dont want to pay all that money
It’s comical that some people whine about Bell’s lineups,in the off season the front office started the house cleaning and finished at the deadline
The worst players in the league and they losing games
Who would’ve thunk it ?
I was totally onboard with trading Suarez and Winker. Of the guys gone from last year, only Castellanos was worth trying to keep. Did the Reds get an adequate return for Suarez and Winker? Sure, doesn’t look like it. But Suarez isn’t near what he once was and not worth the money and the roster slot even with his “bounce back” this year.