Two of the hottest teams in the National League (yes, you read that correctly) will square off for three games at Citi Field in Queens, New York, starting tonight at 7:10 PM. The Cincinnati Reds (44-63) are 16-9 in their last 25 games and 6-1-1 in their last 8 series. The New York Mets (70-39) have won 12 of their last 14 games.
The Mets are fresh off an impressive series against the defending World Champion, Atlanta Braves. The Mets won 4 of the 5 games in the series, pushing their lead in the NL East to 6.5 games. The Mets are projected by Fangraphs to win 101 games, and have a 100.0% chance of reaching the postseason. It would be the Mets first postseason berth since they lost in the wild card game in 2016.
Starting Pitchers
Justin Dunn will finally make his anticipated debut for the Reds tonight. It has been a wild ride for Dunn to get to this point, but hopefully this is the fresh start that he needs. Dunn was drafted by the Mets, which should make tonight fun for him. He was traded by the Mets to the Mariners along with our old friend Jay Bruce and Jarred Kelenic for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz in December of 2018. Dunn was a top 100 prospect for the Mariners in 2019 and pitched in the Futures Game that season. Dunn got called up for just 6.2 innings at the end of 2019 and actually made a very rough debut against the Reds.
Dunn made the 2020 rotation for the Mariners and pitched the entire Covid-shortened season. His final ERA was a solid 4.34 in 10 starts, but he had an ugly 6.54 FIP and 6.20 xERA mainly because he had a 6.11 BB/9 rate. 2021 was better for Dunn before he got shutdown with the same shoulder injury that has kept him out until he returned recently. Dunn had a 3.75 ERA in 2021 in 50.1 innings, but still had a concerning 4.74 FIP and 4.95 xERA, once again because of a high BB/9 rate of 5.19. Dunn was able to get out of the jams he created in the very pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle. It’s hard to see him surviving that many walks with his home ballpark being Great American Ballpark.
Dunn has only thrown 102.2 big league innings. He was more of a lottery ticket for the Reds in the Winker/Suarez deal with Williamson and Phillips being the pitchers the Reds are really hoping to be big league starters. However, there was a reason that Dunn was a top 100 prospect just a couple of years ago. Dunn could really be a dark horse to turn the off-season trade into a really good one long-term for the Reds. Graham Ashcraft struggled with walks last year in the minors, but that has been his biggest strength so far this year. Could Derek Johnson work his magic yet again?
Dunn’s pitch mix according to Statcast is: 4-Seam Fastball (51.7%) Curveball (32.2%) Slider (14.8%) Changeup (1.3%). Dunn’s fastball was sitting around 92 MPH in his last start at AAA according to the Indianapolis Indians MiLBtv broadcast.
Chris Bassitt was acquired this off-season from the Oakland A’s, and he has been stellar for the Mets. He has been even better at Citi Field, posting a 3.06 ERA/3.10 FIP in 10 starts. Bassitt has only faced the Reds once in his big league career, back on May 9, 2019 at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. He took a tough loss on that afternoon as the Reds got a gem from Tanner Roark.
Starting Lineups
Over the last 30 days, Jonathan India has a 148 wRC+ and Joey Votto has a 125 wRC+.
UPDATE 6:49 PM: Kyle Farmer was scratched with neck stiffness and replaced by Mike Moustakas at 3B (from DH) and Donovan Solano from the bench to DH.
Tyler Naquin will face off against the Reds for the first time since being traded. He is 8 for 23 (.348) with 2 home runs since joining the Mets.
Wednesday Starting Pitcher
T.J. Zeuch appears to be the Reds starting pitcher on Wednesday, replacing Robert Dugger who was placed on the IL today to make room for Dunn.
RHP T.J. Zeuch, a Mason native, is here with the Reds in New York and expected to start Wednesday vs. Mets.
Zeuch had a 3.63 ERA in five Triple-A Louisville starts with 26 strikeouts and 10 walks in 22 1/3 innings.
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) August 8, 2022
Zeuch will be the Reds' 15th different starting pitcher this season (Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Minor, Gutierrez, Sanmartin, Overton, Hoffman, Cessa, Moreta, Dugger, Dunn, Zeuch).
Only the 2003 Reds (17) and 2017 Reds (16) had more. https://t.co/IApal6kO6B
— Matt Wilkes (@_MattWilkes) August 8, 2022
Conclusion
The Reds recent good play has resulted in series wins over the Yankees, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, Orioles and Marlins. All of those teams except the Marlins are over .500. All of those teams except the Marlins are within 2.0 games of a playoff spot. It’s highly unlikely that the Reds can keep up that type of play against good teams, but it has been fun to watch this team still competing even after losing so many good players at the deadline. The Mets could be overlooking the Reds a little bit sandwiched in-between series against the Braves and Phillies. It would be cool to see the Reds go into Citi Field and win a series. Go Reds!
Going back to the 1996 season, the Reds average about 26.1k fans per victory.
In 77% of those seasons they had 26.1k +/- 4k fans per victory.
They only fell below that range twice in 26 seasons (once was 2021 covid affected). They finished above that range 5 times.
Conclusion… If they win, they will draw fans.
Thanks for providing the advanced stats matrix. Pretty shocking and telling to see the difference in red colors. And again I will point out that Votto is one of the best hitters the Reds are putting out there right now and he has zero protection in the lineup. For those that want to dump everything on him. Reds have very little on the current roster that will contribute to the next winning team.
Farmer was scratched due to a neck stiffness and Moose is moving to the 3B and Solano will be the DH… this series is another David vs. Goliat scenario….We should be prepared for a likely Mets sweep but if the Reds could win 1 out of 3 it would be pretty good and win the series superb… Go Reds!!
That’s a major head-scratcher. I have to believe Solano plays WAY better D than 3M does.
Nope. Solano was quoted in a positive manner today saying hes here for a reason and wants to help Barrero and India and the young players and hes happy to be a DH and a leader and a mentor. Moose is 30% below MLB avg as a hitter and we know more awful on defense and not happy about accepting the fact hes no longer a credible MLB player and he ain’t accepting anything other than 3b.
Cubs are releasing Jason Hayward and his $22 million for next year and moving on. Hes a positive clubhouse presence so hes staying on this year.
Moose is the worst FA signing ever and its not close.
Pray for rain 🙂 we don’t have to face degrom and scherzer in this series right? Luck is on our side already:) let’s go win it Reds
Reds are likely going to need some good pitching performances if they are going to get a win or 2. Hoping Dunn can give us one today!
It’s kind of fun to watch them right now.
Hey what’s with the metric system with the stats in the lineups? 🙂
+500
😀
Five starters under the Mendoza line in August…wow!
Five “hitters” batting below .200 in the line up today…
How can a team win with those stats ?
Everytime I go to espn predictor reds chances are lower or about 30% and still somehow the team is finding ways to win. Betting against Reds has been counter productive…. Hope this continues…
At least our 3rd and 4th hitters are batting .400 … COMBINED!!!
Mighty Moose Mendoza batting 3rd. The fear Bassitt must be feeling
“Mighty Moose Mendoza”
i read it with the tone of “funky cold medina”
Hhahhaa
“Why you so fly?” 🙂
No idea how Dunn will fair, but the offensive potential looks less than promising. Hope Pap can keep Dunn calm and his head in the game, especially after a first batter like that.
If the Reds really wanted to show their fans that they cared they would eat Moose’s contract now. He looks horrible and way over matched. How can they continue to run him out there, let alone bat him 3rd.
And put a glove on him when there are other options … you know, the one batting DH tonight.
Cutting Moose wouldn’t show Reds fans they care, it would only show they realize what everyone else does, that Moose is finished and that money is forever lost. Cutting Moose would be an empty gesture, that wouldn’t cost them anything. Baseball’s equivalent of “thoughts and prayers”
If they wanted to show their fans they care, they would extend India and/or Stephenson this winter.
Nimmo to score. That was quick $.
Dunn doesn’t have the electric stuff he had before
Let the tanking begin.
Cowboy is reciting Dunn’s AAA stats … and they aren’t pretty. Thinks he’s not quite ready for The Show. Then again, who else are you gonna pitch and where are we gonna go?
Well Dunn is working quickly …
Think the Reds are going to need to find another starter or two in the offseason. Even just to eat some innings next year. Not sure I have much faith in any of the minor league guys right now.
And this is why they should of kept Mahle or Castillo. Injuries and no depth at triple A…
But hey it is what it is. Or where you gonna go.
Disagree with that. They got good value from the trades.
Yeah, no. I’m done with struggling to make the playoffs. Strip it bare of the 5+ year vet regulars and stock up on the prospects. Let the youth be served and let them serve us a consistent playoff presence.
Counting on Aquino and Barrero to provide the power, let’s say a couple HRs, to win this game. Keep the game closed, of course, Dunn
Joey Votto is the worst defensive first baseman that has regularly played the position for the Reds that I can recall. Only thing he does well is receive the ball and scoop the short hop.
And he is no doubt the worst base runner I have ever seen in any team.
He really is a modern day Ted Williams– a savant as a hitter and disinterested at best with the rest of it
@RUT
Reds content plus did a defensive analysis on the Reds.
Votto at first was in the 11th percentile for defense of MLB players.
That paled in comparison to his baserunning/speed. He’s in the last 1 % percentile.
Who is playing 1b and 3b tonight? Vets Votto and moose.
The entire infield defense has been bad. India is a below-average second baseman and Farmer is a below average shortstop. Shifting Farmer and inserting Barrero is a good start, but I’d also think hard about moving India back to 3B for the future. Obviously they need a Votto replacement still as well.
Just read that the Cubs plan to eat the last year of Heyward’s contract next season (22 mil).
Sure wish the Reds would do the same with Moose.
Aquino with the 56.7 mph jam shot dribbler infield hit.
No hitter is over.
Loved it! Great hustle.
He drove in two runs recently with the same kind of dribbler. Hope he’s doing it on purpose with the shift.
Papierski with the 57.3 MPH 4-6-3 double play ball.
Hated it! Way too predictable.
If Dunn can be this serviceable, I’d be pretty happy. I keep seeing that he’s a “lottery ticket”. Sometimes those pay of at least a little bit. I’ve got one on the door I need to go cash in sometime.
Typed before the Vogel-boy did his thing
He seems to have a good smoke in the dynamite shed though.
Dunn seems like an unfinished product. Moments of Brilliance but otherwise unready
That’s what Cowboy was saying earlier.
Chris Farley can hit.
+500
😀
Too bad it was offline. Would have had him.
AA’s had some stellar throws this year. Every once in awhile you uncork a dude.
yeah
Okay let’s see a bunt or hit and rub or straight steal. Anything that resembles baseball.. lol
I think a hit and rub is what got Robert Kraft in trouble.
That’s some tough luck right their for India
What happened. On gameday.. if u don’t mind sharing lol
Mets 2B is doing the drop ball routine for plays
Never mind lol
ok once… it happens… more then once, thats dirty, I do not care what the rule book says
Yep..
Manufactured a run there … so at least the shut-out is off the table. Small victories.
Moose with a 102 mph laser.
India,Senzel,Votto all under 75 mph but it produces a run.
I’m thinking the one Fraley let go was the one he wanted to smack.
Moose lifted.
Couldn’t get to 2nd on his hit that most of us 50+ year old could have made easily.
Pulled up rounding 1st… could have still crawled there.
Moose hammy, india also out. Senzel to third, Renyolds to second Almora to Center
If you pulled a hammy you wouldn’t of made it to second…
Holy Moses.
Senzel at 3b. Moose looked like a hammy.
Senzel FINALLY makes it to 3rd.
India out too.
What the fudge?
Senzel on 3rd
What the heck happened to India?
I saw your response below, never mind. I’m about 5 min behind on the telecast
Who had Senzel at 3b and Barrero at SS 2 weeks ago?
Raise your hand.
Uh … yeah … I’m gonna have to say no and ask you to come in Saturday … Sunday as well …
India came up lame legging it out down 1B.
Paging a new training staff for 2023.
Too many soft tissue injuries.
India missed a couple of months with a hamstring problem. Hopefully this is just a tweak.
Do they even stretch before games?
If I had to guess, India yes, Moustakas no.
Yes they do
Oh.My!
Scrambled line-up now. Farmer looks pretty much unavailable with that patch on his neck.
Ive muted the audio. what is the issue with Farmer?
stiff neck
Get your gloves ready guys. Bell might need us.
Let me stretch first. Okay I am ready!!
Haha doing the Moose calisthenics?
Well does that mean guys being called up or do we play 3 guys down for a week or so
Moose said if was supposed to touch his toes GOD would have put them on his knees.
Barrero professional at bat. Line drive right field
Loved the 2 strike approach there.
Who in the world called for a fastball to Barrero?
Do they have enough position players to finish the game? Which RP will be manning the field?
Nice oppo by Jose. Too bad AA couldn’t pull that another couple of feet.
And then that UGLY steal attempt.
Ummm
That ultimately worked … we’ll take it
He made it
you mean “beautiful” steal attempt 😉
Those who have given up on him are wrong in my opinion. Wrist injuries take time to heal.
Time will tell.. Time will tell..
Never fear David Bell. RLN is coming to play. Haha
Let me grab a beer first
LOL
I’m got dibs on DH.
Done
Fine. Hey look if you can’t hit , Bell will bat you 3rd.
Ive got long relief. The knuckler still plays and the fastball is now a change up.
You taking Blandinos old spot
Let’s roll lol
Barrero’s next gig will be a role in The Matrix
Thank you for that gift, Mr. Bassitt!
Bell- Farmer, India and Moose are day to day.
10 days later reds still playing with one man bench.
You all heard it hear from JB… and sadly wouldn’t be surprised if that happens.. lol
I’m hoping 3M gets an IL stint. Hammy with his history and … um … conditioning might nag him the rest of this season.
That man needs to get in shape or give it up. He may have been injured anyway but his conditioning or lack thereof didn’t help. That’s one thing you don’t have to worry about with Votto.
Amazing. Dunn is already better than Minor.
Now that’s a low bar.
He did clear it though. Lots of base traffic, but he survived.
Great grab by AAJ.
I played second let’s see 52 years ago so I could give it a go but hit me ninth and then hit for me.Oxygen I assume will be hooked up and available
We re a station to station team. No worries. Waiting for the 3 run homer from Indy.
Let’s go lol but we will pitch foe u in 9th. Lol
Vogelbach looks like he swallowed Bartolo Colon.
Laughed at that one.
+1,000
😀
Field first, throw second Escobar
Let’s go AA!!!
If Mets continue to give us chances somebody will make them pay.Go Reds
Oh so close that inning … 😮
Get’em next time
We’re outhitting the Mets. Just need a big hit to drive in runs.. let’s go
Just got online and noticed that all 3 of the Mets 3 runs scored so far were the result of a HBP followed by a HR and then a walk to Lindor, then a SB followed by a run-scoring single! Regardless of the Reds pitcher du jour they need to limit the free passes regardless of the opponent! As was stated earlier, I am hopeful the Reds can win one of the 3 games versus the Metropolitans!
Gibaut has been a nice bullpen piece
C Trent is saying India hamstring and Moose calf. Thats not good for India.
As for the soft tissue injuries, the players insisted in Mid March to a 162 game season. A compressed season with no off-season input from MLB trainers and a shortened spring training …its august. of course injuries.
Lets call up another player or two and roll on.I hate it for both players but they will be back next year.Lets see if we have somebody else that is hungry for a shot in the big leagues.No better time or year to find out.
Bad break for India. Maybe shut him down rest of year. Truly no reason to come back
Moose well… lol
Good point Old School.
The ball was in the catchers glove before Paps bat got into the zone.
Let’s go Nick Senzel
8 of those
So many threatening rallies, with just one run to show for it.
Yes, too many LOBs against a team as good of the Mets!
First round pick Collier getting his first game action (2022 picks Stewart, Tanner, Boyd and Faltine as well).
https://www.milb.com/gameday/acl-reds-vs-acl-brewers-blue/2022/08/08/710264#game_state=live,game_tab=,game=710264
Great! Next week, move this whole starting lineup to Daytona and send back the players there, except Arroyo and Allen to Arizona. Lol
Hunter, the other C taken is also there. All 6 drafted position players in Arizona.
dunn was great
What is wrong with our bullpen tonight? They all look good so far.
I think the bullpen has actually been pretty solid for the last few weeks. We all remember the blow-ups, but it has been markedly improved overall.
Agreed
Nice to see Gibaut pitching his way onto next year’s roster. He’s been really solid recently.
So I’m thinking we don’t win this one tonight, but our guys really have hung in there. Dunn did a serviceable job and didn’t throw BP to the Metros. We had a couple of bad breaks and missed some opportunities. But the Mets are a good team.
Looking at the lineups the Mets should have blown the Reds out. But they are a scrappy bunch.
Curious to know if Votto looks frustrated with his batting. I mean has to be for him. I know it happens to the best of players.
Aquino had his pitch and he missed it on the first strike.
Other than the outfield, the roster for 2023 is pretty much set.
The Naquin trade might have brought back the best prospects although they are not as highly rated as the ones from the Mariners and Twins. So far, Acuna has thrown 9 innings with an unearned run and 10 Ks and Rodriguez is hitting .500 in Arizona.
Any chance Steer gets called up for India or do they call Lopez? I know with Steer they need to open a spot on 40
I’m thinking Lopez, who’s already on the 40 man roster gets the nod. I think they’ll wait till December to add Steer, along with the others like EDLC, Williamson, etc. Jmo
Steer will definitely get a lot of PT in Louisville the rest of this season.
Depending on the severity of the injuries to both India and Moose, Friedl might also be called up and Senzel starts at 3B with Almora starting in CF.
Or more likely Farmer at 3B and Senzel at 2B?
Per Bobby Nightengale, if catchers interference were counted as a BB or HBP, Nick Senzel OBP would be .336
Reds got 9 hits tonight, but only 1 run. Proving…that somewhere in this rebuild they need a couple big bats in the lineup. In the next 2 to 3 years, can they find a couple 25-30 hrs a year plus 80-90 ribs a year. Remains to be seen…
I am disappointed…. us sending Naquin to a winner, and he doesn’t show his appreciation to us by striking out deliberatly….smh
AA just isn’t familiar enough with that outfield to get to that ball. He turned and checked himself a little too late.
We hung around for 8 innings. Back at it tomorrow.
That’s the first ball I’ve seen him misplay. Sprint back to the fence… then jump….he just drifted
He was tentative … that’s what I saw. Unfamiliar and tentative.
Exactly. He should of had that. Drifting killed him.
If he played it correctly he didn’t need to jump. Not gonna get anything from our bottom three. Bring up others before the end of the year.
Aquino has a cannon but not much else is showing with some playing time. Hes hitting. .187/.216./.308/.524
Hes got 3 home runs. Its august.
If you cant hit for average or get on base…you better hit a home run more than once every 40 at bats. I gave up on him last year and see no reason to think hes ever going to be a major league every day right fielder.
He hit .190 in 2021
He hit .170 in 2020.
Hes hitting .187 in 2022.
And who do you go with? Friedl? Fairchild? Fraley? No evidence that any of them are better. AA is actually 12-39 ABs coming into this game, mired by the injury in the middle.
I dont care in Rf as the Reds have no credible right fielders in th short to medium term. If they want to give Aquino another 100 at bats the next month, sure. He’s just not the answer on the next reds good team nor is anyone else on the 40 man roster. Exactly why the Reds arent winning in 2023. They have no outfield hitters or corner infield hitters and India and Stephenson cant stay healthy.
No argument there. I question if there’s next good team. EDLC, Marte, and a few others are probably headed for position changes to build out the future OF. Senzel and AA don’t seem like the future. Shut down India for the rest of the year and give Steer a shot at 2nd for the rest of the year. What’s it going to hurt?
We have released him at least twice and none of the other 29 teams picked him up off waivers. That is a mouthful but makes your point. Only the Reds give him any at bats and 175 keeps repeating itself. Insanity.
Uncanny how often Reds relievers get two quick outs, then crater.