Two of the hottest teams in the National League (yes, you read that correctly) will square off for three games at Citi Field in Queens, New York, starting tonight at 7:10 PM. The Cincinnati Reds (44-63) are 16-9 in their last 25 games and 6-1-1 in their last 8 series. The New York Mets (70-39) have won 12 of their last 14 games.

The Mets are fresh off an impressive series against the defending World Champion, Atlanta Braves. The Mets won 4 of the 5 games in the series, pushing their lead in the NL East to 6.5 games. The Mets are projected by Fangraphs to win 101 games, and have a 100.0% chance of reaching the postseason. It would be the Mets first postseason berth since they lost in the wild card game in 2016.

Starting Pitchers

Justin Dunn will finally make his anticipated debut for the Reds tonight. It has been a wild ride for Dunn to get to this point, but hopefully this is the fresh start that he needs. Dunn was drafted by the Mets, which should make tonight fun for him. He was traded by the Mets to the Mariners along with our old friend Jay Bruce and Jarred Kelenic for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz in December of 2018. Dunn was a top 100 prospect for the Mariners in 2019 and pitched in the Futures Game that season. Dunn got called up for just 6.2 innings at the end of 2019 and actually made a very rough debut against the Reds.

Dunn made the 2020 rotation for the Mariners and pitched the entire Covid-shortened season. His final ERA was a solid 4.34 in 10 starts, but he had an ugly 6.54 FIP and 6.20 xERA mainly because he had a 6.11 BB/9 rate. 2021 was better for Dunn before he got shutdown with the same shoulder injury that has kept him out until he returned recently. Dunn had a 3.75 ERA in 2021 in 50.1 innings, but still had a concerning 4.74 FIP and 4.95 xERA, once again because of a high BB/9 rate of 5.19. Dunn was able to get out of the jams he created in the very pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park in Seattle. It’s hard to see him surviving that many walks with his home ballpark being Great American Ballpark.

Dunn has only thrown 102.2 big league innings. He was more of a lottery ticket for the Reds in the Winker/Suarez deal with Williamson and Phillips being the pitchers the Reds are really hoping to be big league starters. However, there was a reason that Dunn was a top 100 prospect just a couple of years ago. Dunn could really be a dark horse to turn the off-season trade into a really good one long-term for the Reds. Graham Ashcraft struggled with walks last year in the minors, but that has been his biggest strength so far this year. Could Derek Johnson work his magic yet again?

Dunn’s pitch mix according to Statcast is: 4-Seam Fastball (51.7%) Curveball (32.2%) Slider (14.8%) Changeup (1.3%). Dunn’s fastball was sitting around 92 MPH in his last start at AAA according to the Indianapolis Indians MiLBtv broadcast.

Chris Bassitt was acquired this off-season from the Oakland A’s, and he has been stellar for the Mets. He has been even better at Citi Field, posting a 3.06 ERA/3.10 FIP in 10 starts. Bassitt has only faced the Reds once in his big league career, back on May 9, 2019 at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. He took a tough loss on that afternoon as the Reds got a gem from Tanner Roark.

Starting Lineups

Over the last 30 days, Jonathan India has a 148 wRC+ and Joey Votto has a 125 wRC+.

UPDATE 6:49 PM: Kyle Farmer was scratched with neck stiffness and replaced by Mike Moustakas at 3B (from DH) and Donovan Solano from the bench to DH.

Tyler Naquin will face off against the Reds for the first time since being traded. He is 8 for 23 (.348) with 2 home runs since joining the Mets.

Wednesday Starting Pitcher

T.J. Zeuch appears to be the Reds starting pitcher on Wednesday, replacing Robert Dugger who was placed on the IL today to make room for Dunn.


The Reds recent good play has resulted in series wins over the Yankees, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, Orioles and Marlins. All of those teams except the Marlins are over .500. All of those teams except the Marlins are within 2.0 games of a playoff spot. It’s highly unlikely that the Reds can keep up that type of play against good teams, but it has been fun to watch this team still competing even after losing so many good players at the deadline. The Mets could be overlooking the Reds a little bit sandwiched in-between series against the Braves and Phillies. It would be cool to see the Reds go into Citi Field and win a series. Go Reds!

167 Responses

  1. AMDG

    Going back to the 1996 season, the Reds average about 26.1k fans per victory.

    In 77% of those seasons they had 26.1k +/- 4k fans per victory.

    They only fell below that range twice in 26 seasons (once was 2021 covid affected). They finished above that range 5 times.

    Conclusion… If they win, they will draw fans.

  2. Hanawi

    Thanks for providing the advanced stats matrix. Pretty shocking and telling to see the difference in red colors. And again I will point out that Votto is one of the best hitters the Reds are putting out there right now and he has zero protection in the lineup. For those that want to dump everything on him. Reds have very little on the current roster that will contribute to the next winning team.

  3. RedsGettingBetter

    Farmer was scratched due to a neck stiffness and Moose is moving to the 3B and Solano will be the DH… this series is another David vs. Goliat scenario….We should be prepared for a likely Mets sweep but if the Reds could win 1 out of 3 it would be pretty good and win the series superb… Go Reds!!

    • Mark Moore

      That’s a major head-scratcher. I have to believe Solano plays WAY better D than 3M does.

      • Old-school

        Nope. Solano was quoted in a positive manner today saying hes here for a reason and wants to help Barrero and India and the young players and hes happy to be a DH and a leader and a mentor. Moose is 30% below MLB avg as a hitter and we know more awful on defense and not happy about accepting the fact hes no longer a credible MLB player and he ain’t accepting anything other than 3b.

        Cubs are releasing Jason Hayward and his $22 million for next year and moving on. Hes a positive clubhouse presence so hes staying on this year.

        Moose is the worst FA signing ever and its not close.

  4. LT

    Pray for rain 🙂 we don’t have to face degrom and scherzer in this series right? Luck is on our side already:) let’s go win it Reds

  5. Moon

    Reds are likely going to need some good pitching performances if they are going to get a win or 2. Hoping Dunn can give us one today!

  6. Melvin

    It’s kind of fun to watch them right now.

  7. Chris

    Hey what’s with the metric system with the stats in the lineups? 🙂

  8. DW

    Five starters under the Mendoza line in August…wow!

  9. JA

    Five “hitters” batting below .200 in the line up today…
    How can a team win with those stats ?
    Everytime I go to espn predictor reds chances are lower or about 30% and still somehow the team is finding ways to win. Betting against Reds has been counter productive…. Hope this continues…

    • Daytonnati

      At least our 3rd and 4th hitters are batting .400 … COMBINED!!!

  10. Indy Red Man

    Mighty Moose Mendoza batting 3rd. The fear Bassitt must be feeling

    • JA

      “Mighty Moose Mendoza”

      i read it with the tone of “funky cold medina”


  11. Mark Moore

    No idea how Dunn will fair, but the offensive potential looks less than promising. Hope Pap can keep Dunn calm and his head in the game, especially after a first batter like that.

  12. Mark A Verticchio

    If the Reds really wanted to show their fans that they cared they would eat Moose’s contract now. He looks horrible and way over matched. How can they continue to run him out there, let alone bat him 3rd.

    • Mark Moore

      And put a glove on him when there are other options … you know, the one batting DH tonight.

    • Votto4life

      Cutting Moose wouldn’t show Reds fans they care, it would only show they realize what everyone else does, that Moose is finished and that money is forever lost. Cutting Moose would be an empty gesture, that wouldn’t cost them anything. Baseball’s equivalent of “thoughts and prayers”

      If they wanted to show their fans they care, they would extend India and/or Stephenson this winter.

  13. Indy Red Man

    Nimmo to score. That was quick $.

    Dunn doesn’t have the electric stuff he had before

  14. Mark Moore

    Cowboy is reciting Dunn’s AAA stats … and they aren’t pretty. Thinks he’s not quite ready for The Show. Then again, who else are you gonna pitch and where are we gonna go?

  15. earmbrister

    Well Dunn is working quickly …

  16. Hanawi

    Think the Reds are going to need to find another starter or two in the offseason. Even just to eat some innings next year. Not sure I have much faith in any of the minor league guys right now.

    • Kevin H

      And this is why they should of kept Mahle or Castillo. Injuries and no depth at triple A…

      But hey it is what it is. Or where you gonna go.

      • Hanawi

        Disagree with that. They got good value from the trades.

      • earmbrister

        Yeah, no. I’m done with struggling to make the playoffs. Strip it bare of the 5+ year vet regulars and stock up on the prospects. Let the youth be served and let them serve us a consistent playoff presence.

  17. LT

    Counting on Aquino and Barrero to provide the power, let’s say a couple HRs, to win this game. Keep the game closed, of course, Dunn

  18. Rut

    Joey Votto is the worst defensive first baseman that has regularly played the position for the Reds that I can recall. Only thing he does well is receive the ball and scoop the short hop.

    And he is no doubt the worst base runner I have ever seen in any team.

    He really is a modern day Ted Williams– a savant as a hitter and disinterested at best with the rest of it

    • Old-school

      Reds content plus did a defensive analysis on the Reds.

      Votto at first was in the 11th percentile for defense of MLB players.

      That paled in comparison to his baserunning/speed. He’s in the last 1 % percentile.

      Who is playing 1b and 3b tonight? Vets Votto and moose.

      • Hanawi

        The entire infield defense has been bad. India is a below-average second baseman and Farmer is a below average shortstop. Shifting Farmer and inserting Barrero is a good start, but I’d also think hard about moving India back to 3B for the future. Obviously they need a Votto replacement still as well.

  19. docproc

    Just read that the Cubs plan to eat the last year of Heyward’s contract next season (22 mil).
    Sure wish the Reds would do the same with Moose.

  20. Old-school

    Aquino with the 56.7 mph jam shot dribbler infield hit.

    No hitter is over.

      • Melvin

        He drove in two runs recently with the same kind of dribbler. Hope he’s doing it on purpose with the shift.

  21. Old-school

    Papierski with the 57.3 MPH 4-6-3 double play ball.

  22. Mark Moore

    If Dunn can be this serviceable, I’d be pretty happy. I keep seeing that he’s a “lottery ticket”. Sometimes those pay of at least a little bit. I’ve got one on the door I need to go cash in sometime.

    • Mark Moore

      Typed before the Vogel-boy did his thing

    • JB

      He seems to have a good smoke in the dynamite shed though.

  23. Bet on Red

    Dunn seems like an unfinished product. Moments of Brilliance but otherwise unready

    • Mark Moore

      That’s what Cowboy was saying earlier.

  24. Melvin

    Too bad it was offline. Would have had him.

    • earmbrister

      AA’s had some stellar throws this year. Every once in awhile you uncork a dude.

  25. Kevin H

    Okay let’s see a bunt or hit and rub or straight steal. Anything that resembles baseball.. lol

    • Daytonnati

      I think a hit and rub is what got Robert Kraft in trouble.

  26. Mark Moore

    That’s some tough luck right their for India

      • Bet on Red

        Mets 2B is doing the drop ball routine for plays

  27. Bet on Red

    ok once… it happens… more then once, thats dirty, I do not care what the rule book says

  28. Mark Moore

    Manufactured a run there … so at least the shut-out is off the table. Small victories.

  29. Old-school

    Moose with a 102 mph laser.

    India,Senzel,Votto all under 75 mph but it produces a run.

  30. Mark Moore

    I’m thinking the one Fraley let go was the one he wanted to smack.

  31. VaRedsFan

    Moose lifted.
    Couldn’t get to 2nd on his hit that most of us 50+ year old could have made easily.
    Pulled up rounding 1st… could have still crawled there.

    • Bet on Red

      Moose hammy, india also out. Senzel to third, Renyolds to second Almora to Center

  32. Old-school

    Holy Moses.

    Senzel at 3b. Moose looked like a hammy.

  33. Daytonnati

    Senzel FINALLY makes it to 3rd.

  34. VaRedsFan

    India out too.
    What the fudge?
    Senzel on 3rd

    • earmbrister

      What the heck happened to India?

      • earmbrister

        I saw your response below, never mind. I’m about 5 min behind on the telecast

  35. Old-school

    Who had Senzel at 3b and Barrero at SS 2 weeks ago?

    Raise your hand.

    • Mark Moore

      Uh … yeah … I’m gonna have to say no and ask you to come in Saturday … Sunday as well …

  36. VaRedsFan

    India came up lame legging it out down 1B.

    Paging a new training staff for 2023.

    Too many soft tissue injuries.

    • earmbrister

      India missed a couple of months with a hamstring problem. Hopefully this is just a tweak.

    • Daytonnati

      Do they even stretch before games?

  37. Mark Moore


    Scrambled line-up now. Farmer looks pretty much unavailable with that patch on his neck.

  38. JB

    Get your gloves ready guys. Bell might need us.

  39. Roger Garrett

    Well does that mean guys being called up or do we play 3 guys down for a week or so

    • Bill J

      Moose said if was supposed to touch his toes GOD would have put them on his knees.

  40. Old-school

    Barrero professional at bat. Line drive right field

    • VaRedsFan

      Loved the 2 strike approach there.

  41. AMDG

    Who in the world called for a fastball to Barrero?

  42. Doc

    Do they have enough position players to finish the game? Which RP will be manning the field?

  43. Mark Moore

    Nice oppo by Jose. Too bad AA couldn’t pull that another couple of feet.

  44. VaRedsFan

    Barrero’s next gig will be a role in The Matrix

  45. Mark Moore

    Thank you for that gift, Mr. Bassitt!

  46. JB

    Bell- Farmer, India and Moose are day to day.
    10 days later reds still playing with one man bench.

    • Kevin H

      You all heard it hear from JB… and sadly wouldn’t be surprised if that happens.. lol

    • Mark Moore

      I’m hoping 3M gets an IL stint. Hammy with his history and … um … conditioning might nag him the rest of this season.

      • Melvin

        That man needs to get in shape or give it up. He may have been injured anyway but his conditioning or lack thereof didn’t help. That’s one thing you don’t have to worry about with Votto.

  47. JB

    Amazing. Dunn is already better than Minor.

    • VaRedsFan

      Now that’s a low bar.
      He did clear it though. Lots of base traffic, but he survived.

  48. Roger Garrett

    I played second let’s see 52 years ago so I could give it a go but hit me ninth and then hit for me.Oxygen I assume will be hooked up and available

    • Old-school

      We re a station to station team. No worries. Waiting for the 3 run homer from Indy.

  49. earmbrister

    Vogelbach looks like he swallowed Bartolo Colon.

  50. Mark Moore

    Field first, throw second Escobar

  51. Roger Garrett

    If Mets continue to give us chances somebody will make them pay.Go Reds

  52. Mark Moore

    Oh so close that inning … 😮

  53. LT

    We’re outhitting the Mets. Just need a big hit to drive in runs.. let’s go

  54. Dennis Westrick

    Just got online and noticed that all 3 of the Mets 3 runs scored so far were the result of a HBP followed by a HR and then a walk to Lindor, then a SB followed by a run-scoring single! Regardless of the Reds pitcher du jour they need to limit the free passes regardless of the opponent! As was stated earlier, I am hopeful the Reds can win one of the 3 games versus the Metropolitans!

  55. Old-school

    C Trent is saying India hamstring and Moose calf. Thats not good for India.

    As for the soft tissue injuries, the players insisted in Mid March to a 162 game season. A compressed season with no off-season input from MLB trainers and a shortened spring training …its august. of course injuries.

    • Roger Garrett

      Lets call up another player or two and roll on.I hate it for both players but they will be back next year.Lets see if we have somebody else that is hungry for a shot in the big leagues.No better time or year to find out.

    • Kevin H

      Bad break for India. Maybe shut him down rest of year. Truly no reason to come back

      Moose well… lol

  56. JB

    The ball was in the catchers glove before Paps bat got into the zone.

  57. earmbrister

    So many threatening rallies, with just one run to show for it.

    • Dennis Westrick

      Yes, too many LOBs against a team as good of the Mets!

    • SteveO

      Great! Next week, move this whole starting lineup to Daytona and send back the players there, except Arroyo and Allen to Arizona. Lol

      • SteveO

        Hunter, the other C taken is also there. All 6 drafted position players in Arizona.

  58. Melvin

    What is wrong with our bullpen tonight? They all look good so far.

    • Hanawi

      I think the bullpen has actually been pretty solid for the last few weeks. We all remember the blow-ups, but it has been markedly improved overall.

  59. SteveO

    Nice to see Gibaut pitching his way onto next year’s roster. He’s been really solid recently.

  60. Mark Moore

    So I’m thinking we don’t win this one tonight, but our guys really have hung in there. Dunn did a serviceable job and didn’t throw BP to the Metros. We had a couple of bad breaks and missed some opportunities. But the Mets are a good team.

    • JB

      Looking at the lineups the Mets should have blown the Reds out. But they are a scrappy bunch.

  61. Kevin H

    Curious to know if Votto looks frustrated with his batting. I mean has to be for him. I know it happens to the best of players.

  62. JB

    Aquino had his pitch and he missed it on the first strike.

  63. GreatRedLegsFan

    Other than the outfield, the roster for 2023 is pretty much set.

  64. SteveO

    The Naquin trade might have brought back the best prospects although they are not as highly rated as the ones from the Mariners and Twins. So far, Acuna has thrown 9 innings with an unearned run and 10 Ks and Rodriguez is hitting .500 in Arizona.

    • JB

      Any chance Steer gets called up for India or do they call Lopez? I know with Steer they need to open a spot on 40

      • SteveO

        I’m thinking Lopez, who’s already on the 40 man roster gets the nod. I think they’ll wait till December to add Steer, along with the others like EDLC, Williamson, etc. Jmo
        Steer will definitely get a lot of PT in Louisville the rest of this season.

      • SteveO

        Depending on the severity of the injuries to both India and Moose, Friedl might also be called up and Senzel starts at 3B with Almora starting in CF.

      • SteveO

        Or more likely Farmer at 3B and Senzel at 2B?

  65. Old-school

    Per Bobby Nightengale, if catchers interference were counted as a BB or HBP, Nick Senzel OBP would be .336

  66. Jeff Morris

    Reds got 9 hits tonight, but only 1 run. Proving…that somewhere in this rebuild they need a couple big bats in the lineup. In the next 2 to 3 years, can they find a couple 25-30 hrs a year plus 80-90 ribs a year. Remains to be seen…

  67. Bet on Red

    I am disappointed…. us sending Naquin to a winner, and he doesn’t show his appreciation to us by striking out deliberatly….smh

  68. Mark Moore

    AA just isn’t familiar enough with that outfield to get to that ball. He turned and checked himself a little too late.

    We hung around for 8 innings. Back at it tomorrow.

  69. VaRedsFan

    That’s the first ball I’ve seen him misplay. Sprint back to the fence… then jump….he just drifted

    • Mark Moore

      He was tentative … that’s what I saw. Unfamiliar and tentative.

    • JB

      Exactly. He should of had that. Drifting killed him.

    • Beaufort Red

      If he played it correctly he didn’t need to jump. Not gonna get anything from our bottom three. Bring up others before the end of the year.

  70. Old-school

    Aquino has a cannon but not much else is showing with some playing time. Hes hitting. .187/.216./.308/.524

    Hes got 3 home runs. Its august.

    If you cant hit for average or get on base…you better hit a home run more than once every 40 at bats. I gave up on him last year and see no reason to think hes ever going to be a major league every day right fielder.

    He hit .190 in 2021
    He hit .170 in 2020.
    Hes hitting .187 in 2022.

    • LDS

      And who do you go with? Friedl? Fairchild? Fraley? No evidence that any of them are better. AA is actually 12-39 ABs coming into this game, mired by the injury in the middle.

      • Old-school

        I dont care in Rf as the Reds have no credible right fielders in th short to medium term. If they want to give Aquino another 100 at bats the next month, sure. He’s just not the answer on the next reds good team nor is anyone else on the 40 man roster. Exactly why the Reds arent winning in 2023. They have no outfield hitters or corner infield hitters and India and Stephenson cant stay healthy.

      • LDS

        No argument there. I question if there’s next good team. EDLC, Marte, and a few others are probably headed for position changes to build out the future OF. Senzel and AA don’t seem like the future. Shut down India for the rest of the year and give Steer a shot at 2nd for the rest of the year. What’s it going to hurt?

    • Rob

      We have released him at least twice and none of the other 29 teams picked him up off waivers. That is a mouthful but makes your point. Only the Reds give him any at bats and 175 keeps repeating itself. Insanity.

  71. Doc

    Uncanny how often Reds relievers get two quick outs, then crater.