Robert Dugger’s International League Pitcher of the Week that he received on Monday did not translate into success at American Family Field on Friday night. Dugger replaced the departed rotation spot of Tyler Mahle, and his first start back with the big league club did not go well. Dugger allowed a pair of home runs and four walks in just four innings. Dugger departed with the Reds trailing 5-0.

The Reds bullpen held down their end, but the offense struggled for a fifth straight game as they lost players at the trade deadline. The Reds have scored just 9 runs over the last 5 games.

Final R H E
Milwaukee Brewers (58-48) 5 7 0
Cincinnati Reds (42-63) 1 7 1
W: Lauer (8-3) L: Dugger (0-1) S: Williams (7)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Robert Dugger allowing a 2-run home run to Rowdy Tellez with 1 out in the first inning, giving the Brewers a 2-0 lead. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 16.7% (from 45.0% to 28.2%).

Positives

Nick Senzel had 2 more hits tonight. He entered play hitting .275/.333/.420 with a 108 wRC+ since July 4th. It is nice to see him hitting better and near the top of the lineup. A big finish and a clean bill of health to finish the season for Senzel would be very encouraging.

Kyle Farmer had 2 hits and an RBI in his debut as the Reds new apparent third-baseman. Tonight was Farmer’s first start at third base since April 26, 2021.

The Reds bullpen threw four scoreless innings. Ross Detwiler and Luis Cessa each pitched a scoreless inning after taking over for Dugger, Ian Gibaut retired 5 of the 6 batters he faced with 4 strikeouts, and Reiver Sanmartin was able to sneak out of a jam in the 8th.

Negatives

Robert Dugger‘s final line was rough: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. He allowed 9 hard hit balls according to Statcast. The Reds #5 prospect according to Doug Gray started tonight for AAA-Louisville. He didn’t have a great start tonight (suffered some tough luck from what I saw), but he has been pitching well of late. You have to wonder how many starts Dugger would get before they give Williamson a shot.

Jose Barrero is 0 for 6 with 3 strikeouts in his start to the season after being recalled on Wednesday. He was pinch-hit for by Mike Moustakas in the 9th inning.

Jonathan India had his 7th error of the season when he air-mailed a throw to first base that he should have just put in his pocket.

Not so random thoughts…………..

I really enjoyed the AppleTV+ broadcast. It was fun to have a very different style broadcast, and some of the camera angles were especially good. I also thought that play-by-play announcer Melanie Newman did a nice job.

Up Next:

Reds at Brewers
Friday, 7:15 PM
TV: FOX
Nick Lodolo (4.23 ERA/3.79 FIP) vs Aaron Ashby (4.13 ERA/3.75 FIP)

66 Responses

  1. SteveO

    Zeuch will make the start on Sunday in place of Greene. To keep inning limits in line, we might also see Dunn, Williamson and in September Overton. Last 2 months will be good to evaluate these pitcher to see who will take the lead heading into ST ‘23.

    Reply
    • GreatRedLegsFan

      The starting rotation for 2023 looks set with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Overton plus one of Williamson, Dunn or Stoudt.

      Reply
  2. Bdh

    Jake Fraley has reached base 7 of the 13 plate appearances he has had since returning and has only struck out once.

    Insert heavyweights “this pleases me” gif

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      The media coverage of him as he came back suggests he “went to school” on himself while he was out injured. Also, he looks to me like he spent some time in a weight room. Hopefully he hasn’t been previously hopelessly typecast as the Reds often seem prone to doing with folks.

      Reply
    • Jim Walker

      I don’t see it in the linked article that Bell blindsided Farmer. A guy can be called in and told something in a talk that leaves him with the feelings Farmer spoke of having. Given Barrero’s struggles at the plate in AAA all season, who wasn’t surprised to see him brought up and named the everyday starter at SS? So, yeah, it must have been a setback for Farmer to be told he was now a 3B candidate moving forward.

      By comparison, Aquino was on a 3-4 week run at MLB where he was OPSing at ~.800 when he was injured then stepped up in rehab and posted a 1.000+ OPS at AAA over a 3 week period, so it figured he was going to get another shot at MLB.

      Reply
    • AMDG

      On the Reds’ pregame on WLW it sounded like Farmer was aware of the switch, and on board with it.

      Farmer is a mediocre hitter and an ‘ok’ SS. He plays hard, but didn’t really go out there an “win the job”. If he had played well enough, perhaps they would have been able to get something for him at the trade deadline.

      Reply
    • Bill

      I don’t know if he is really upset about it or not, but I wouldn’t be too worried about it. This is the guy Larkin wants to make captain of the team, so if he is really that type of person he should be willing to do whatever is best for the team. He is still starting everyday and the alternative was the Reds traded him to a team that would likely use him off the bench.

      Reply
  3. Jim Walker

    This was a tale of a couple of pitches perhaps deciding the entire game. With the bases loaded in the top of the 1st, Aquino fouled off a hitters’ pitch and then was caught looking at strike 3. In the bottom of the inning, the Brewers guy didn’t miss his hitters’ pitch.

    And am I allowed to say without being labeled as a hater that the 2 GIDP by Votto then slammed the door on any possible Reds comeback? He really needs to be batting 5th or 6th. I know, especially with Stephenson out, there is no real alternative; but, maybe try Aquino or Almora? At least they’d have a fighting chance of beating the back end on a GIDP opportunity.

    Reply
    • LT

      You are allowed to say that Jim. I asked Nick why Votto’s 2 double plays were not mentioned in the Negative section? Indian’s error, I think it did not lead to any unearned run, was called out.

      Reply
  4. BK

    That’s interesting that he didn’t see a potential move coming with the Reds top position player prospect over the last two seasons being an outstanding defensive SS. Also, the article does not say Bell didn’t speak to him.

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      Krall made an announcement of sorts about both Barrero and Aquino. I saw video of it. If in fact Farmer was blindsided maybe that was because Bell himself had been blindsided by Krall and didn’t have a chance to speak with Farmer prior to him hearing what Krall had said.

      And I can hardly believe I am going out of my way to defend Bell; but, it really does seem out of character for him not to have spoken with Farmer.

      Reply
  5. LT

    Nick, should Votto’s 2 DBs be called out under Negative?
    We still have a chance to win the series with Lodolo and Green pitch the next 2 games. Go Reds.

    Reply
    • Nick Kirby

      Votto did reach base in the other two plate appearances, so I just decided that his overall night was a wash and didn’t include him in either positives or negatives lol

      Reply
      • LT

        Thank for taking the time to reply. I thought the impact on the game was key. DP killed any chance of rally.

  6. GreatRedLegsFan

    Reds may finish this season just how it started, so +100 losses is again very likely.

    Reply
    • Earmbrister

      Fortunately, the Reds have added 3 new prospects to their top 7 and overall 7 new prospects to their top 30 prospect list. Collier will soon add his name, probably to both lists. It’s all about playing the youngsters now.

      Reply
  7. GreatRedLegsFan

    Seen Barrero’s at bats since called-up and it’s not pretty, swinging at many pitches out of the strike zone and struggling with breaking balls. Unless he figures it out between now and ST, he may loose this last chance.

    Reply
    • Redsvol

      We are going to have to have an extreme amount of patience the next 2 months with all the young guys. We will not be as good as we were in June and July.

      Gonna have to find the positives in little bites until they get 500 at bats or 100 innings under their belt. No way around it. Even senzel didn’t have 500 at bats coming into this year. Seems like he’s been around forever but was injured too much to get the experience.

      Reply
  8. CFD3000

    I’m a big Votto fan, but three key at bats killed the Reds chances on the offensive side last night. Votto’s two GIDP were rally killers, especially when he went from 3-0 to GIDP in the 8th. Rough night for Joey in spite of a hit and a walk. And Solano’s inability to drive a run in with the bases loaded and only one out in the first was a huge missed opportunity as well. Dugger looked like a true replacement level pitcher and the fewer starts he gets, the better but the offense was disappointing too.

    On a different note, I agree that Apple TV+ games dilute the already diminished value of MLB.TV, but the quality of these Friday night broadcasts has improved a lot since week one. I actually enjoyed the call and the overall presentation. Interesting stats, camera angles, and insights, and a competent, enjoyable team in the booth. Dare I say, refreshing?

    Reply
    • Nick Kirby

      I say it’s refreshing as well. As long as they keep these games free on AppleTV, I don’t have an issue with it as an MLBtv subscriber myself. If they start charging for this + the Peacock games and whatever else, I sure hope the MLBtv price goes down.

      Reply
    • Tomn

      I gotta say I’m very, very tired of a player being ‘mic-ed up’. I rarely find whatever they say interesting, thoughtful or amusing. With votto being the lone exception.

      Reply
  9. wkuchad

    I was not able to watch yesterday’s game. How was Farmer’s defense at 3rd? Did he get many chances?

    I’m good with him at 3rd this year and next. He’s not blocking anyone that’s ready. In 2024, I would like to see Farmer back to that super utility role, always starting somewhere against left handed pitching.

    Reply
      • wkuchad

        If he’s ready, I agree with you. I thought he was more 2024, maybe later 2023.

      • MBS

        Hope India gets 3B. I’m sure he’d agree, since he is a third basemen. No need in 23 to continue to play him out of position. I don’t really know a lot about Steer yet, except he played SS the other day for Louisville and his profile had both 2B and 3B as his positions. I’m hoping Steer good defensively up the middle, but have my doubts.

    • VegasRed

      Farmer is not an everyday player, he’s a utuilityman. Very important position on a team and he is really good at it.

      But he isn’t an everyday SS or 3B, not on a winning, competitive MLB.

      And this is proven fact through his history. What the reds don’t know yet is who in the organization can be that SS or 3B. In the meantime, Bell will give farmer lots of AB’s.

      Reply
  10. JA

    For me, to really have an evaluation pf this team from this week and one is to check Reds games against the other AAAA+ teams. Reds new players potential evaluation should be against cubs, pirates, nationals and the alikes…. After all the movements of the trade line, Reds is and will be outmatched against playoff contenders….

    Reply
  11. Jim t

    DBell is being asked to walk a very fine line. Play the youth and avoid a 100 loss season. He also has to deal with the issue of dealing with the vets who are giving up playing time to players in some cases weren’t tearing the cover off the ball in AAA. All players want to play. Vets and Rookies. Vets in some cases are playing for their next opportunity. I think some fans forget that.

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      Agree but the only veteran position guys left now that truly have much at stake are Farmer and Almora who are arbitration eligible. What they do between now and the end of the season could determine if they are even tendered an offer for 2023; and if they are, the offer will set the bar for negotiations leading into possible arbitration.

      Votto and Moose both have a guaranteed year left in 2023 at full salary plus a healthy option buyout coming at the end of that season (JV $7m; MM $4m) against a 2024 salary neither ever really figured to collect.

      Solano is well established as an RH hitting platoon player who has done enough to demonstrate he has another year left in the tank. Reynolds is a career 4A guy who is going to be signing a minor league deal and hustling for a spot somewhere next spring regardless; and like Solano, he has done enough already to earn that shot.

      Reply
  12. Roger Garrett

    Reds lost Drury and Naquin who had missed a bunch of games and did not play against lefties.Reds vets all have been underachievers on offense and defense and the stats show it.Three of them are under contract next year.Almora Solano and Reynolds are the only ones I see that are playing for there next opportunity’s.It is a big change for Bell because he plays vets and he prefers them regardless how they perform.If there was a concern about losing 100 games that concern should have been no greater then after 3-22 start and not after the trade deadline.Krall set the direction and told Bell to play Barrero and Aquino but last night told me all I need to know about Bell.In a meaningless game down 4 he hits for both in the 9th inning.I am sure both got the message that if it were up to him neither would play.Bell’s job is safe because nobody will fire him.Bell was told and even said it that the club needed to look at Barrero because he didn’t get enough of a sample last year.That lasted 2 games and 6 at bats.

    Reply
    • Jim t

      I have no issue with Bell hitting for either player in that spot. They both got multiple at bats and Bell used lefties against righties for one at bat to try to win the game. He served both purposes in how he managed last night. It’s a shame some can’t see that.

      Reply
      • Roger Garrett

        I see exactly what Bell did and it had nothing to do with trying to win the game.Down 4 in the ninth,not down 1 or 2 runs it was 4 runs down in a meaningless game and the odds of coming back or going ahead is less then 1 percent.

      • BK

        Absolutely Jim, the young players played and Bell will continue to make moves to put the team in the best position to win and develop our young talent.

      • Kevin H

        They don’t want to see it. Just because some want to see the young players play no matter.

        I for one want to see then win. If that means pitching hitting then so be it.

  13. RedsGettingBetter

    The Reds offense and starting pitching is depleted now and there are no answers to fix that. So many losses are coming the rest of the way… Aquino just play due the poor team quality showed currently by the Reds.. It is curious that when the team had been winning more frequently for the first time in the season and the pieces they had were engaging so the trade dealine came and spoiled the momentum… Well we wiil wait for the top prospects development…

    Reply
  14. Indy Red Man

    Yep 100+ losses is definitely back in play. No offense and shutting down our young arms for the 88 mph stylings of Mr Robert Duggar. I’d rather have one of his 17 brothers or sisters. What happened to Ben Lively? I saw 7 day IL and then he disappeared. Released or TJS? He’s better then Duggar by far.

    Barrero? Looks like Tarzan plays like Jane. That ship has sailed. Plus we have 13 new shortstops waiting in the wings. Aquino? More of the same. Great defensive player! If a team had the luxury of carrying him and spotting him against guys with bad breaking stuff then he could help as a defensive replacement, but we’re not that team. Its going to be a long couple of years. Its already been a long couple of years or 10

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      I am not quite ready to give up on Aquino. It was starting to happen for him at MLB when he got hurt in June (.283BA/ .798OPS/115OPS+ from call up in May till injured in June over about 50 PAs). Then he jumped all over AAA pitching in the rehab, 1.000+ OPS; 179 wRC+ with about 50 PAs again.

      However, I wonder if AA is a one month leash? If they get Fairchild untracked from being thrown off the from several weeks of sitting the MLB bench, they may bring him back to MLB in September for a legitimate look?

      Reply
  15. Jim t

    If I’m Greene, Ashcraft,Lodolo. India and Stephenson I’m protecting myself the best I can and counting the days I can leave Cincinnati. Ownership will not surround them with anything other then prospects who may or may not work out. The idea of using prospects to bring in some established talent will not be utilized because they would have to pay them.

    I keep hearing people say fire Bell. Who would want to manage this team?Maybe Krall could hire somebody from RLN. ?. This is a second rate team with a third rate ownership. I have been a fan since late 1950’s. Never have I been more embarrassed or disappointed in our franchise. Winning is hard in small markets but it is especially difficult when ownership considers winning impossible and much easier to hold its fan base hostage. Remember, “ where are we going to go”.

    The recent sell off saved them money and bought them more time with the fan base. It was the path of least resistance. As the home of baseball we deserve better!!!!

    Reply
    • Votto4life

      Jim T,

      I suggest that even if ownership would offer to extend Greene, Lodolo, India and Stephenson, I would guess there would not be any interest on their part to stick around any longer than they have to.

      The same goes for free agents. The Reds had difficulty attracting free agents when Dick Williams was spending money like a drunken sailor. The only way they could convince Castellanos to sign here was to offer him plenty of opt outs.

      So, I sure hope these prospects are really amazing, because they’re not going to get much help from the outside.

      Reply
  16. Mark A Verticchio

    I think they deserve until 2024 if they haven’t become competitive by than it’s time for a lot of changes. This is their last chance, so don’t blow it guys. However they should get rid of Bell after this year, he is not the man to turn it around and yes there are good people out there. Maddon or Girardi would be an improvement.

    Reply
    • Jim t

      Your making assumption they would take this job. At the end of the year their will be other openings. My guess is better jobs then working for this group.

      Reply
      • MBS

        If there was some reluctance of managers accepting the position in 23, that reluctance would be gone by 24. Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft in their 3rd seasons, and EDLC and company graduating the minors. It will be an exciting time in the Queen City!

      • Jim t

        @MBS we shall see. I hope your right but a lot can happen between now and them. Injuries and prospects don’t always pan out. My point is ownership has to utilize all its resources to build a winner. If I was a manager looking for a Job Thos would be far down the list of jobs I would take.

      • Old-school

        GMR has nominated LDS many times.

      • LDS

        Thanks, Old-school, that’s funny. But at least my threshold for success wouldn’t be particularly high. A couple of things would change under my regime, like telling Moose to get in shape or he’s heading to the waiver wire. And Votto wouldn’t be starting every day, batting 4th, regardless of circumstances. That’s not a task that Bell is up to – clearly.

      • greenmtred

        Don’t make that assumption, LDS: You’d be held to the highest standard, regardless of how bad your players were.

      • LDS

        Kind of like investing in the late 90s, a blind monkey could outperform Bell.

      • greenmtred

        If the blind monkey managed the BRM, he probably could. Bell or most other managers.

    • Redsvol

      Wow. Did you see what Maddon did with Angels with Mike Trout and Ohtani? Did you see what Girardi did in Philly with a payroll of almost 200$ million. Philly has played much better since Girardi was let go. Maddon just couldn’t seem to get anything out of his younger players.

      Reply
  17. Mark A Verticchio

    I will agree to disagree with those saying there will be no interest in this job next year. There is a lot of young talent that would be fun to develop. However, I am sure they are stuck with Bell next year, unless the end of this season goes off the rails, 100 plus losses. I hope that doesn’t happen but it is possible.

    Reply
    • Steven Ross

      There’s always interest with any Manager’s opening. It’s probably time to move on from Bell. I honestly think the Front Office is looking for a new direction as well. Bell’s lineups are head scratchers. Votto still batting cleanup is a joke. I also listen to what Larkin and Brantley have to say and the undercurrents of change are palpable. They question many of his moves.

      Reply
  18. Old-school

    The Reds are in full rebuild mode, transitioning from one core of players to another. It started after the 2020 season -not prioritizing Iglesias or Archie Bradley or a bullpen and has been a steady march since.

    This is what a rebuild looks like folks. 2022 is the completion of the elective component to the demolition of the 2018-22 Reds. 2023 will be Votto’s swan song and the final write off of Moose but also an important transition year for progression of prospects I n the minors and at the big league level. Will they all pan out ? No. But the under the radar guy for me is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Reminds me a little of Adam Duvall with just big time power and might be Votto’s replacement at first base.

    2024 will be the new frontier of Reds baseball. Sure, it could be swamp land instead of the Great Plains but I dont agree with those that lump everything together from prior transitions. Yes, the ownership is the same, but the situations are different and Krall is doing things no FO has ever done. If the Reds lose 97 games this year and secure a top 5 overall pick, great. Thats what a rebuild looks like. Krall is simply fast-forwarding things and ripping off the band-aid and loading up on prospects.

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      The (relatively) easy part is over. Now the real test starts. Do the Reds have the organizational skills to evaluate, classify then develop the apparent windfall of talent into a cohesive effect winning core?

      Nothing in the history of this ownership suggests they do. Jocketty fell into an outstanding maturing core group and then moved from hot mess to hot mess afterwards, spinning his wheels in the mud. Williams did what he did and was stopped because (higher) ownership didn’t want to pay the bills.

      What is going to happen when Krall decides he needs to bundle some of the young talent for an established (and more costly) player or two or sign a free agent to fill in the gaps which appear as the talent is developed? That will be the test of the pudding.

      Reply
      • JB

        Not sure why Williams gets a pass from everyone. To me he was horrible. Krall had done more in a month than Williams did his whole time. And Krall has done it with Williams 2 huge mistakes- Akiyama and Moose. I thought they were bad signings then and worse now.

      • Jim Walker

        @JB> I think Williams has to be given an “I” for incomplete.

        By all accounts, he modernized the baseball ops department. Some people pushing back against that along with the money situation are rumored to have been parts of his decision to leave or Big Bob’s decision to ask him to fall on his sword; or whatever the combination of factors it was.

        Under Williams, the stench of losing was purged. In 2020 they had the first .500+record in 6 seasons. And as brief and unsatisfactory as it was, the team made its 1st postseason appearance in 7 years.

        The 2021 team that also finished better than .500 was at its core Williams’ team. What we don’t know is what that team would have looked like had Williams been given leeway to continue with his plans in the off season between 2020-2021. Perhaps Williams would have tackled rather than been shackled by the brewing issues with the Moustakas and Akiyama contracts. Maybe he would not have blown up the bullpen. We will never know, so, incomplete is his mark.

        Krall came in and did what he was instructed to do. The easy part just ended. Virtually anyone could have auctioned off the talent he just did for favorable immediate results. The test is whether can he use and/ or leverage it to build a consistent contender given what financial restraints he apparently be operating under.

  19. Jim t

    I hope you guys are right but I don’t think 2024 will be our year either. Votto and Moose off the books is great but only if they use the money to hold into our core and that remains to be seen.

    I guess I believe in the saying screw me once shame on you screw me twice shame on me.

    Reply
    • Old-school

      I get it and I hear you( i think its fool me….). I’m giving Krall the benefit of the doubt for a minute. Hes done a lot right the last month and Jim Bowden, who knows a thing or 2 about the Reds, said ownership has never done what they are doing now- letting the GM do his job and Bowden has given the Reds high grades for the draft and and deadline deals.

      Reply
      • Votto4life

        The same Jim Bowden who never won a World Series? who thought Wily Mo Peña was the second coming of Babe Ruth? and the same Jim Bowden who was a forced to resign as GM of the Nationals, because he was a target of an FBI investigation for skimming bonus money off of kids in the DR? That Jim Bowden?

      • Old-school

        C’mom V4L

        The post had nothing to do with lets open up a debate on the character and lifestory of Bowden

        Bowden knows the reds ownership dynamic better than anyone and is also a respected contributor at the Athletic.

        He also hired Nick Krall in 2003

    • MBS

      I think Krall will spend money on FA in 23. He did this year we just ran into a lot of injuries, and being a team that was getting thinner, the injuries really hurt. After we got people back we’ve basically been a 500 club. Time will tell.

      Reply

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