Luis Castillo is heading to the Pacific Northwest to be re-united with former Cincinnati Reds teammates Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. Jeff Passan of ESPN broke the news that the Seattle Mariners were finalizing a deal to acquire the Reds ace at 10:21pm. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times is reporting that Cincinnati will be acquiring four minor league players, including their top prospect Noelvi Marte.
Castillo will be a free agent after the 2023 season, but Cincinnati felt that now was the right time to move him. The right-handed starter was perhaps the biggest name and best player on the trade market and it certainly seems that the Reds were able to get Seattle to pay a big prospect price. The 2-time All-Star has made 14 starts this season with a 2.86 ERA. In his six seasons with the Reds since being acquired for Dan Straily prior to the 2017 season, Castillo has made 137 starts and compiled a 3.62 ERA in 792.1 innings while racking up 860 strikeouts.
This trade signals that Cincinnati isn’t looking to truly compete in 2023, but building for a date to be determined in the future. There’s just no likely path forward for next season that would be a better one without Castillo and with the prospects acquired in the deal. That isn’t to say that the deal isn’t the right one for the long term future, but it is one that makes it incredibly difficult to see a path to contention for the Reds next year, too.
Coming back in the deal from Seattle is four minor leaguers and it’s a big return for the Reds. Noelvi Marte was the Mariners top rated prospect according to Baseball America. Edwin Arroyo was their second rated prospect. Both are coming over in the deal. They’ll be joined by Levi Stoudt, who was their 10th rated prospect, and Andrew Moore who was their 26th rated prospect.
It’s Noelvi Marte that headlines this deal. The 20-year-old shortstop was ranked as the 47th overall prospect in baseball just a few weeks ago by Baseball America. He’s a 5-tool player with above-average hitting ability, plus power potential. Defensively he’s got a chance to stick at shortstop, but there’s more than enough bat if he has to move to third base in the long run.
Edwin Arroyo is another shortstop and the 18-year-old is crushing the ball in Low-A this season. Last year’s 2nd round draft pick (48th overall) is hitting .315/.384/.513 with 21 stolen bases, 18 doubles, 7 triples, and 13 home runs in 86 games played. On Baseball America’s mid-season update he was rated just behind Marte and was 48th on their Top 100 list.
Levi Stoudt has had some struggles this year in Double-A. His ERA is sitting at 5.28 in 87.0 innings where he’s walked 22 batters to go along with 82 strikeouts in 18 starts. The righty throws in the mid-to-upper 90’s with a good change up and two solid breaking balls.
Andrew Moore is a reliever in his first full season after being drafted last season. He’s dominated in Low-A, posting a 1.95 ERA in 32.1 innings where he’s walked 17 and struck out 58. He’s shown both a good fastball and breaking ball this year.
I like this trade. Added to the Naquin deal the Reds have added 6 good prospects to the organization in the last 2 days. I also really like Cam Collier who they just picked up in the draft. Reds have some really decent talent now in the minors. Castillo was great but I think, as Doug wrote, now is the best time to trade him. Best of luck to him and thanks for the great performances he gave to the Reds.
I like this trade. It was important to get a top 25 prospect for Castillo. Since the Yankees would not include Volpe I was hoping they would be out. I really like both Marte and Arroyo. I am not sure if Marte or De La Cruz is the Reds #2 prospect but whichever one is it is a very good second best prospect.
Arroyo should jump into the Reds top 10. Two very good trades. 5 or 6 more over the next 90 hours or so.
Boom, there it is. I love Marte. He had to be included in any Seattle deal. To get Arroyo as well is pretty sweet. Liking this deal overall. Wish Castillo well, he was great for the Reds.
Thanks Doug. Unlike the Reds Management and many players on the Reds, Doug is very efficient and great÷
Of note, Andrew Moore is a 2021 draft pick from Chipola JC. We’ve added 3 players from the JC with Collier and Huggins
Would’ve preferred Dollard or Hancock instead of Stoudt. Thought the Castillo trade would get done near the deadline, but I guess Krall felt that he couldn’t get a return package better than this. The scouting dept. must’ve done extensive research on these players prior to the Winker/Suarez trade and maybe the main reason Krall pulled the trigger so quickly
The reports are that he didn’t pull the trigger quickly, but that the other teams in play put out their best offer and Seattle’s blew them away. And frankly, given the return for Castillo, this was an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Looking beyond 2023 most likely. Not much for next year. Hope it works out in the future. We’re full of short stops. Generally speaking a SS can play most anywhere though.
Travel back in time to 1982. That is where the 2022 Reds are.
They didn’t contend until 1985. They contended but finished second four years in a row. 1985-86-87-88.
What makes me go ? is how a guy with Stoudt’s stuff gets knocked around like he has
That said, great haul. Enjoy your prospects and no more WS rings, Yanks!
Was reading some Yankees fans responses on Twitter about this deal and they were pretty salty. They wanted Castillo and felt Yanks management blew this.
Nice lol. They had better prospects than Seattle, but if they want to keep coming up short, that makes the rest of MLB happy
I’m thrilled he won’t be playing for the Yankees or Dodgers
I looked a little bit into Stoudt last night. The first thing I tend to look at with minor league players is the league they play in. Some of the leagues have drastic effects on stats (FSL is pitching friendly, suppressing power, Cal league is hitter friendly etc).
The Texas League tends to run slightly on the hitter friendly side, if memory serves me correct. The league average ERA this season is 5.10.
I also consider the level. While he made three successful starts at AA to end 2021, he’s really pitching at the level for his first go-around. AA is the hardest jump in the minors so some adjustment time may be needed as well.
Looking further his FIP and xFIP are 4.74 and 4.73 respectively. The walk rate is really good. The Fangraph grades for FB (50), Slider (55), and Command (50/60) are also good, while the Changeup (30/40) lags behind. If he can learn to throw a better changeup (sometimes something that comes with time and practice) it’ll improve his chances of sticking as a starter. Upping the K’s and limiting the HR’s a bit on both percentages are areas of improvement to keep an eye on.
I agree with all of the comments above.
Although I would have preferred SP Emerson Hancock over SP Levi Stoudt but I’m greedy like that.
Good haul for the Reds
ESPN is reporting 29 year old outfielder Dylan Moore (not Andrew Moore). Is that a mistake?
It is Andrew Moore
The only thing I don’t like about this deal, I believe, at least for now, is we probably won’t see the benefits of this trade for another 4 years, if any.
I agree, but the Mariners top 30 prospect list didn’t have a single player above AA. So, the timeframe is pushed back by at least a year, and there’s more risk, but the Reds needed help up the middle and Marte and Arroyo are excellent prospects (let’s just hope the Reds don’t mess them up…lol).
Steve I agree and four years India and Stephenson will be in the free agent years, with Greene and Lodolo one year behind them.
This would be my concern too steve. I live marte but I would have like a little more sooner return. Deloach, the outfielder in AA would have been nice because our outfield depth is terrible near term.
I also thought we could have gotten 2 top 50 baseball America Propect plus filler for castilllo. I think krall could have held out for one of their better pitchers but that’s probably nit picky. Glad we didn’t take the overhyped Yankees Propect package. The current and future Seattle rotation looks quite strong. They might make the World Series this year.
Hard to complain about Krall tonight. I’m watching Seattle play the Astros as I type and they just reported the trade. They said They thought the Mariners really wanted Castillo as they gave up a tremendous amount in their opinion.
Recent returnee to the PNW. This is a great trade for both teams. The M’s have Julio, and he is the real deal. They have Crawford at SS, Frazier at 2B, Geno at 3B snd Ty France at 1st. With Julio, Winker, Kyle Lewis Kelenic, Trammel snd others in. the OF. It’s a very fun team. I can’t wait to go see Castillo, that that big park. With gold gloves at SS, 2B and more.
Would have been nice but probably would not have gotten Arroyo then. I liked getting two potential impact bats that will more than likely play premium defensive positions
Looks like a solid return. Let’s go Mariners.
I thought Marte had to be included if the trade was with Seattle. So, I am very pleased to see his name. They have two top 100 prospects together with two other prospects who clearly they like. Time will tell the story. I have no problem with it.
Marte was the lead get – I’m surprised they got Arroyo as well. I expect Hancock was off limits, and it may have been Dollard or any 2 others. It’s not about next year for the Reds, so volume is good, and this seems like a very good deal regardless of the ETAs of these guys.
Barring injury, Marte and Elly should both be up briefly at the end of next year. SP looks good toward the end of next year as well. Shedding contracts and building a bullpen remain TBD.
2024 for both.
SP is also TBD. It is better than BP for sure.
If they perform thru this year and next, I won’t mind seeing them next Sept. – As another old timer I’m recalling the days of expanded rosters and playing time if you’re not in contention, which they won’t be. Granted it’s different now, and the stupid service time rules, but still . . .
As for SP, I’m an optimist after all, and if they keep Mahle the rotation should be getting clear by the second half next year. Aside from Antone, I don’t see anyone granted a spot to lose in the pen.
Best of all, I’m trying to recall the last time they had a farm system this deep – maybe the 60’s with Bench and the young pitchers? Doug’s value just increased – everyone should follow him on Patreon to see why.
Yeah, from what I read a while ago, the roster only expands from 26 to 28 in September. Many of the BRM players got a Cup Of Coffee with the Reds in September before they stuck all year.
Reds had really minor league talent in 1980s. Also pretty good in the 2000s.
PS I’m thinking Mahle will be traded also.
Also with the timing, the FO is showing that they are not messing around, therefore increasing packages teams will offer for Mahle and Drury
I have no idea if this is a good trade but I am greateful they didn’t deal with the Yankees. I know who I’ll be rooting for the remainder of the season.
Goodbye LC you will be missed my friend.
+500 or the Cardinals.
V4L, it is a great trade. Marte and Elly? For real? I’ve recently moved back to the PNW. I know the M’s, and I am PSYCHE to get Luis! I also know the system. They gave up Julio Rodriguez, Part II.
It’s definitely bittersweet to lose Castillo. But two top 100 prospects (one a top 20) and 2 more prospects is the kind of return the vast majority of us asked Bull to get for him. Hopefully, the Bull trades Pham, Solano, Reynolds, and maybe Minor or 3M. If Drury won’t sign an extension he has to be traded as well. I’m really hoping for a top 5 farm system after the trade deadline.
This looks like the return that many here (me included) wanted to see; top talent as opposed to “major league ready” talent. Stinks knowing that next season will likely turn out like this one, but hopefully this move is part of a brighter future in 3 or 4 years. I like this trade.
I don’t expect the Reds to win anything next season, but it could be fun to watch some of the young guys develop and get experience. Not really happening this year outside of the rotation.
If we’re going to tank, let’s make it worth it and fill up the tank! That’s what Krall is doing. And we still have chips to trade and we’re on pace for another top 5 draft pick.
Surprised the Dodgers nor the Yankees got L Castillo, that would have made each a world series favorite. But each team probably didn’t want to give up their top prospects. Hopefully these prospects work out for the Reds, especially Marte and Arroyo.
Hard to imagine why two teams 30+ games over .500, would spend very much for yet another good pitcher. Of course, there is greed is suppose.
Partly–at least–because they might meet each other in the series.
The Reds will probably make some more Pham like deals with outfielders in 2023 and 2024. This trade has no outfielders. It is not a criticism, just an observation.
Maybe benintendi in a reds uniform next year? Yankees way over the luxury tax line next year.
That is something they should definitely explore. Maybe if he wants to return home he gives the Reds a shot. However if it is one of those contracts with opt outs after a year or two, then I would pass. A six year deal would keep him around for the next window of hope and wouldn’t push him too far into his 30s
It is very likely that one of either Marte, Arroyo or Ely de la Cruz will move to the outfield. Plus we have McClain, Hinds and Hendrick that are all expected to make debuts in the next year or 2. So, depending on development, we could have a power hitting, athletic SS, 3B, and all 3 OF spots from this group. Of course, this is best case scenario……
No complaints here. Once again, upside and youth (quality) over quantity and they still got solid quantity.
Kralls two deals have me feeling better about him as far as trading GM duties. At least we didnt end up with 5 24-25 year-olds that no long have any upside or promise.
Hopefully another solid prospect for Drury and maybe even trade Mahle, though not as urgent now.
The Yankees probably spent too much time trying to cheat the Reds, and the GM got tired of it.
Does Marte join the Lookouts? Definitely the team to watch now and if he’s added, the march for the Southern League title is on! Will be interesting where each prospect is placed in the organization. Marte has spent the whole year at High A with a .275/.363/.462/.825 stat line in 342 ABs, so a move to Chattanooga would seem likely. Arroyo at Low A .316/.385/.514/.899 in 364 ABs and a promotion to High A Dayton seems right. Stoudt joining the rotation in Chattanooga to strengthen the staff there will enhance the chances for the Lookouts to win the second half division title with a chance to play for the Southern League title. Moore has already made 25 appearances 1.95 ETA, 2-1 with 58Ks in 32.1 IP for Low A Modesto and should be in line for a promotion to Dayton.
If Marte joins Chattanooga, it will be must watch tv!
Marte AND Elly? Mercy!
C – Vellojin / Free
1B – McGarry
2B – McLain
SS – De La Cruz
3B – Marte
LF – Hopkins
CF – Siani
RF – Cerda
DH – Johnson/Quintana
P – Abbott/Phillips/Stoudt
Look out! Hit the deck!!
Matt McLain, utility?
Chattanooga is coming over to play in Huntsville in mid August. I am going to go to a couple games and my interest level just went way up!
We had a guys trip planned to watch those games and play somd RTJ golf courses. Unfortunately we had to push it back to September.
I live just 90 minutes from Chattanooga. Hmm. I might have to go see a game on the weekend and maybe when I get some PTO at work. Have to check schedule to see if home games line up with my days off.
I hope the Mariners play the Yankees in the AL playoffs and Seattle (and our three former Reds) kick their tails all the way back to the Bronx.
Luis will thrive coming into the Bronx, again. I can’t wait, honestly. He’s gonna carve up the AL West. It’s not gonna be pretty.
Man I thought 2014-2019 was the dark ages for our reds. It’s going to look like the golden ages compared to the next 5 year stretch. Looks like we are trying to now build around Collier. I would look to see India and Stephenson to be traded this off season. Maybe Green and Lidolo as well.
I am 72 years old. Looks like our competitive window will begin in 2027 or so. This stinks for old guys like me but such is 21st century baseball I guess. I guess ownership learned they can survive with about 17 k attendance per game which they averaged last year due to the pandemic and somewhat surprisingly are averaging this year as well.
1945 to 1955 was the dark ages for the Reds in “modern” times although most of 1930s were also bad.
Since you and I are only one year apart in age, remember the Reds were mediocre from 1957 to 1960. Then, voila! The Reds were very good from 1961 to 1965 averaging 92 W.
Fear not rednat. I think these guy will move quickly. Should another 100 lossos next year, but I see them in the mix in 24 and possible WS favorites by 25.
This is exactly how to build a real winner in my opinion.
Guys like Henrick better figure out the strike zone quickly or be buried by all the guys passing him.
I’ll take that bet. You can have the Reds in 2025 and I’ll take the rest.
The Reds have been in six WS in my lifetime. They were favorites in two or three (1972 was a tossup) and underdogs in the rest.
I am 61 and I feel you. It’s hard to see how even India and Stephenson will be around by the time this team is competitive again.
As you have mentioned the Reds should entertain offers for anyone currently on the major league roster. Not necessarily now, but over the next yeah or so.
Greene, Lodolo, India and Stephenson would bring a nice haul of players who are more in Line with the 2027 time line we are looking at.
The next few seasons are going to make this year look like the good old days.
Hope we are both still around to enjoy the other side Rednat!
Everybody doesn’t have to arrive at MLB at the same time. Ty or India, or the pitchers, could very well sign extensions into their early 30’s. All the great teams have a slew of vets complemented by emerging young stars.
I think your assessment of when the young stars reach the majors and are competitive is way off. They are absolutely building for 2024 and 2025. Not 2027.
Pretty pessimistic take, IMO. EDLC is already at AA. Along with McClain, Siani, Cerda, Abbott, and Phillips and now Stoudt. Marte may join them soon. Barrero and Williamson in AAA. Plus the possibility of adding more. There’s no reason to assume those guys won’t be ready by some point in 2024. Maybe they all don’t pan out but that’s a lot of talent collected to boost the odds.
At that point Stephenson and India will have 3 years of control left. Greene, Lodolo, Ashcroft, Diaz will have at least 4. Plenty of time to make a run.
Given Reds new strategy of no long term contracts, I suspect we have India and Stephenson for 3 more years. Hopefully some of these guys will be joining them before they leave.
India’s going to have significant completion at 2B in the coming years. He’s going to have to play great to stay ahead of what’s coming.
I really like what happens to this team in 2024-2025 and beyond.
We’ve been bashing ownership and the front office all season that’s there’s no strategy. But this look like a pretty darn tight strategy.
Now it’s like Christmas – I want to see what Krall gets for Mahle and Drury.
I’d be very surprised if they traded those guys. And while it’s far from a sure bet, I think they will be better–and better to watch–in 24 and maybe even next year. The young starters may well improve and won’t have as restrictive innings limits, and it’s hard to imagine that they’ll have such bad luck with injuries.
I think the Yankees failed badly. Castillo just might be the pitcher that beats them in the playoffs. Good job Seattle! They have a good one coming there way. Win win for both teams. It is the way trades should be.
It would be great to see, the Yankees or Dodgers fall short. It gives us a rooting interest in Seattle. How great would it be if Luis knocks them out?
Awesome and I am rooting for Seattle and Castillo and Winker and others. Glad the trades were made, but can appreciate these were solid players for the Reds. I won’t miss Castillo’s slow starts to the seasons, but I will miss his torching hot runs in June/July/August.
I said in the other thread I preferred Oswald Cabrera to Marte but overall this trade package is crazy good!
The trade value simulator has the reds giving up 41.2 with Castillo but receiving 63.1 back. Trying to put packages together on there I never would’ve guessed the reds would’ve got that lopsided of a deal
Excited to see what the Yankees or Twins give for Mahle now that the bar was set with Castillo. If it was the twins I had Wondered if they could’ve got woods-Richardson, Steer, and Wallner out of them. On the simulator that would be a 27.1 value for Mahle’s 24.4 but now I think they’ll get a better return than that
Marte is Rodriguez, Redux.
Excellent trade. Perhaps great. Make no mistake, Marte is a crown jewel. This will sting the M’s. But, c’mon, Luis in THAT stadium? It’s money! And now my other home team, selfishly, has another reason to get to more games. Imagine Castillo with run support.
Seattle now has the pitching to be a very tough out in a short series.
It’s the correct and critical move.
Kudos to Seattle for going in.
Kudos to Krall, the complete and total underdog in every reference to him before, during snd, likely after. Such is fame, Nick! Mercy!!!!!
I’m out here as well, and saw the Ms twice this week – they need one more offensive star and they’ll be serious for the WS. Never say never to trader Jerry, but I don’t think it will be Soto. I expect this year to be the wild card spot to break the playoff drought, and they spend freely on the big star in the off season – was interesting to see the very mild disappointment when they only got Ray/Winker/Suarez last winter.
I think the return of Kyle Lewis will help. And of the underachievers, Winker, Frazier, Kelenic, etc, one should break out, you’d think at least.
Ageee. Love this trade. Now gotta get the others done by Tuesday. Keep the young talent coming
Does this not feel completely different from the Chåmpan, Cueto, Bruce, and other trades?
They are going to need an outfielder or two. I guess they can move Barrero there but still will need more.
This is the type of trade I was hoping for. Krall did well on paper. Time will tell though.
The Reds need to sell anything that is not nailed down. No need for more Mike Minor and Tommy Pham’s of the world. Bite the bullet and realize the next two years are going to look pretty much like this season. No need to over pay for it. With the exception of votto, moose, Stephenson, Senzel and India everyone one else should be earning league minimum next year. Don’t waste money on signing end of spring training free agents.
Why write off 23 and 24? They should have 45M available in the budget in 23, and another 45M more in 24. That can buy a lot of missing pieces.
Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Dunn, Overton, Williamson, Abbott
CL FA, Diaz, LHP FA, Santillan, SanMartin, Moreta, Antone, Sims
C Stephenson, 1B McGarry, 2B Farmer, SS Barrero, 3B India
DH Votto, LF Fraley, CF Senzel, RF FA
C FA, U Schrock, U Santana, OF (Aquino/Friedl/Gilliam)
By 24 add De LA Cruz, Marte, and Mclain, Phillips, Petty, Boyle
Do you mean, ML level talent?
It’s still painful.
This deal, just did some sandblasting. We’ll see
Wait. Marte AND Arroyo?
Matt McLain, Utility player?
He’s been hitting like one for sometime now
Would this mean the front office doesn’t believe in José Barrero? Or that he us going to move to the OF pretty soon?
Barrero hasn’t proven he can hit the slider. That’s the gap.
Given one of our five SS in our top 12 will certainly flame out and another will outgrow SS, will be interesting to see who stays at SS, who moves to 2B/3B or OF and who gets traded for upgrade somewhere else.
Too many SS now, but in three years it won’t look like this. It’s not a bad problem, better 5 SS than 5 plodding 1B that can’t hardly be traded.
I just saw a 2025 Reds roster where their top 5 SS are SS, 2B, and all 3 OF spots. That would be a very good defensive team, with India and McGarry on the infield corners, and Stephenson behind the plate. I’m all in, hopefully we can extend Stephenson, even if he needs to DH more than C, because that would be a beautiful team.
No need to keep Tyler Mahle now.
I hope these kids arrive sooner rather than later. India and Stephenson will become expensive in a couple of years. Greene and Lodolo will be right behind them.
For this to work, a couple of these guys are going to pretty much need to be established by 2024.
Next year is going to be pretty ugly.
Don’t worry… Krall will go out and spend on a bunch more reclamation projects like he did this year. How’s that working for him?
It’s actually working quite well. He is building a real winner here. It takes time.
GF Red, that’s exactly right. Krall is building a sustainable winner. And next year doesn’t have to be horrible – there’s definitely talent.
Yeah, Drury and Solano suck.
Minor was the only BAD signing and it was very bad considering he hasn’t done much the past three years and Krall and Reds big against themselves. He should have been a vet minimum signing, not two years and 8 mil, ick. What were they thinking?
That said, the other signings are looking good compared to costs. Might have gotten another solid prospect for near league minimum FA (Drury).
Until reds have a new owner every year will just be more of this. Castellini doesn’t want a ring. He wants to turn a profit and keep developing good players into great players then selling them. Reds will always be a farm team for other owners that have more money and more balls.
The real win here is that LC wasn’t paired up to make a salary dump rather than leveraging him to shore up the farm system.
Even if the prospects we received in this deal move up quickly and are on the Opening Day ‘24 roster, that doesn’t negate the fact that the Reds are wasting at least three controllable seasons of top draft picks India and Stephenson. If the Reds tried to extend them with deals beyond 2026, things would be a lot brighter for fans. I believe both are eligible for arbitration after next year, which under the Bob Castellini model, means they will be on the trade block in 2025 due to being too expensive. So they ***might*** be around for one playoff team.
I think trading in the 5th year is the right thing to do on a bad team. This will not be a bad team in 25 for sure… maybe 24.
Reds need to end cycle of rebuilding by planning to be WS contender from 2024-2030. They should be having extension talks, now, with India, Stephenson, Greene, and Lodolo, setting team control of that group through 2030, coinciding with team control of Barrero, De La Cruz, Marte, McClain, etc. The Reds will not be able to afford extensions if they wait until ARB years. Follow Rays example with Wander Franco, and avoid Washington’s fate with Soto.
Nailed it Andy.
Couldn’t agree more
As soon as the trade deadline passes they should be offering extensions to guys like Stephenson. Even if it only buys two years of extra control
With Minor, Pham, Moose and Votto coming off the books in 2022 and 2023 having the funds to sign Stephenson and India should not be a issue. A major part of this rebuild is centered around moose and Votto being gone.
I assuming since the Reds now have 4 SS prospects they will not be following Barry Larkin’s advice and signing Kyle Farmer to a long term contract.
Some of those shortstops may well move to other positions. DLC looks to have tremendous potential, but he’s also very tall for a shortstop.
Farmer still would have a lot of value if he signs a team friendly deal. First off, he can play just about anywhere, and serves as an emergency catcher. He can play short, 3rd, 2nd, (probably) 1st and both corners in the OF. And he has a pretty good bat too. No need to throw him away just yet
Some talking about the Yankees here. We still have Mahle. The Yankees may go after him now.
I was thinking about that. No need to insist on one of their big two. Dominquez and the pitcher (Wal something), and 1 or 2 more 18 to 19 with upside should do it
Mahle is tough outside GABP.
Added to the $1.5M saved from the Naquin trade, BC saves another $2.75M today from Castillo trade. How many people can make $4.25M in 24 hours?
Nick Krall has made a specular trade of Luis Castillo.
He’s succeeded in acquiring both elite talent and above average depth pieces. He’s relieved the club of both salary and unneeded attention.
Ok, credit given where credit is due!
We’re not worthy! We’re not worthy! We’re not worthy!
All of that is true, and he left the Yankees at the alter. That may be the best part. Maybe NK said Peraza and Dominquez and refused to come off of it. Good for him.
Maybe the Yankees didn’t get to set the terms. Remember just two days ago the piece was written somewhere: “Yankees Just Waiting on the Reds Now”.
Question is, are they still waiting?
Mahle on the mound tomorrow for probably the last time. I see that Williamson is projected to start for the Bats. I’m good with Williamson taking the spot of Mahle in the rotation instead of Dunn. The only thing is that they would have to start his clock and add him to the 40 man roster. They have to add him by Dec., so maybe they’ll do it earlier. Another possibility is adding Duggar to the 40 man roster. The next scheduled start will be 8/5 against the Brewers after an off day on 8/4. A transaction will be made tomorrow with Dunn and Solomon the only 2 on the 40 man currently.
Solomon has a 9.78 ERA at AAA. I think they can safely DFA him to make room on the 40 man if needed.
Dunn more likely to replace Mahle if all that happens.
Not that I have any faith whatsoever in this organization, but I don’t quite understand all the comments along the lines of “this means the Reds can’t possibly compete next year.” If the Reds were actually going to be competitors with LC next season, then they can be competitors without LC by making up for his loss in other ways.
-Spend Minor’s $10 million on a decent starting pitcher rather than a terrible one.
-Allow the best players to play as much as possible rather than worrying about who’s making the most money or whose feelings might be damaged if they don’t get to play every day or hit in a certain spot in the order.
-Find a place for TS in the lineup every day
-Either replace Bell or demand that he start making better decisions
-Get a couple decent relief pitchers, a legit catcher, and an outfielder who can hit with all the money you’re not having to pay Shogo, LC, Pham, Farmer, Solano, Naquin, Strickland, etc.
-Sometime during the year, if you’re not hopelessly out of it, trade a couple of your five or six SS prospects for an affordable quality starter (such as LC).
Not that I expect the Reds to do any of these things. I’m just saying the loss of LC, while significant, doesn’t HAVE to mean next year HAS to be awful. It probably will be, but that’s only because the Reds consistently refuse to do the things they need to do.
Yes, it does (along with other trades this week).
The Reds will not be good in 2023. They may be decent in 2024 and good in 2025.
Johnny Bench played C only in 1968 and 1969. Then from 1970 on, he played other positions (1B, 3B, OF) to get some days off as C. He rarely played C in the 1980s. That could be the path for Tyler Stephenson.
It never ceases to amaze me how so many baseball fans can somehow KNOW what will happen in the future when this sport is so unpredictable. Did anyone predict Drury would be the MVP of this team and an (almost) all-star? Did anyone think Ashcraft would have the best W-L record on this team in August? When the Reds were 2-2 after Atlanta, did anyone really believe they’d be hopelessly behind three weeks later because they’d basically go winless in that span? India was ROY in a season he wasn’t even expected to be on the major league roster! We have no idea what the Reds might do with all the $ they’ll be saving with all these contracts off the books next year. They surprised us by signing a lousy starter for $10M, maybe next year they’ll surprise us by signing a good one for $12M.
It’s true that this organization has given us little reason to assume they know what they’re doing, and they’ll *probably* be bad next year, but predicting a future season with absolute certainty (especially when we don’t even know half the guys who’ll be on the major league roster) is never a great idea.
Man, what is the SS hierarchy now? We have Barrero, EDLC, McLain, Marte and Arroyo. Not to mention Hernandez, Torres, Steiger, Minier, Balcazar, Jorge, Cabrera, Valencia and recently drafted Faltine .Did I miss anyone? Lol. And they are all 17-24 years old. Who will eventually wear the crown in Cincinnati? Of course, some will move off of the position and others may be traded away. Or maybe because they say that SSs are the best athletes, we’ll eventually have a lineup with all of them starting. You heard it here first, the 2025-2026 Reds will have 9 of these players in the starting lineup.
Or they won’t make it to the major leagues at all
No, no. SteveO is right. He has to be!
They need to give SS to Barrero today.
With this influx of SS’s, it makes me want to move both McLain, and De La Cruz to the OF. They both got the speed, and arms to be good OF’s, and are both probably the weakest defenders at SS of the group.
Marte could be our AA SS, and Arroyo our A+ SS. If Barrero does well this year and the next, those 2 could transition into other spots. Marte has wheels, so he could also wind up in the OF, and Arroyo being a plus defender at SS, could pair up with Barrero as a dynamite double play combo up the middle.
Barrero has to hit better at AAA before he is starting SS for Reds.
Robin Yount and Paul Molitor were INF converted to OF.
Don’t sleep on Arroyo guys. He is going to sky rocket up the top 100 list like Elly De La Cruz did and still will do. Look for the same in Arroyo .
3 big time studs here .
Elly De La Cruz
Arroyo will be in everyone’s top 100 if not top 50 though. Elly will be a top 20 in most as well. Would love to see him start playing CF some I think he could be elite there. McLain will move out of many top 100’s though as he probably should.
De La Cruz has to move off the SS position, doesn’t he? I see him projecting as a 3B of the future, although I think he’d be fine in the OF as well.
Reds prospect list is getting really interesting, lots of young pitching and hitting in the pipeline now, the only question is, who is the 1B of the future? I know a lot of people want Stephenson to move there, but I’d really like to see him stay at catcher.
It’s really strange to think India, Stephenson, and Senzel are set to become the elder statesmen of the (fingers crossed) next great Reds team. Heck, given that Senzel is already 27, maybe they should look at trading him too, as he’ll be pushing 30 by the time the Reds are ready to compete.
Hopefully the Reds can find takers for Drury and Pham and keep stockpiling young talent. 2024 should be the target now.
Why not De La Cruz at first base? He’s 6’5″, right?
He is the fastest guy in the organization, and he has an elite arm. First base would waste both those assets. I can see SS, 3B, RF or CF, but not first base.
Looking forward to 2023, the starting rotation should comprise Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Dunn and Overton, with Williamson and Abbott in the mix.
Nick Krall has done a nice job replenishing the farm system. This team is going to build from within and it’s stacking up to be a top farm system. Gone are the years of Louisville having nothing but crud for players. Everybody wanted a Tampa team and a farm system full of potential major league players, well Krall is building it. I love it and it’s not over yet.
This is pretty much the direction I thought the Reds should have taken last season. Of course, Castellanos got hurt right after the all-star break and it kinda ruined things.
I was less than impressed with the Grey, Barnhart, Miley, Winker and Suarez deals. I was infuriated at the Pham signing and Minor trade.
But this is the type of trade that reassures me that Nick Krall might just be an effective GM. I am willing to give him more rope to work with anyway.
The tough decisions though are coming up. If the Reds truly want to be like the Tampa Rays, they will make two very tough decisions over the winter and trade Jonathon India and/or Tyler Stephenson.
By the time this team is ready to win, both players will be expensive distractions. If India and Stephenson get off to good starts in 2023, Nick Krall must take advantage of it, by trading the pair while they are at peak value.
I would also not rule out trading Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo if they have a good first half next season.
Nick Krall has taken a big step this evening to make this team relevant again. If this trade is the defining trade of Nick Krall’s career (which I believe it is). Nick Krall has passed with flying colors
Every move the Reds make for now on should be about 2027. That means any player on the 40 man roster should be available.
Senzel, India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft should be available. I will say however, the reds should move these players when they are having a good run in order to receive the optimal retire.
Tonight is the starting point to the next great Cincinnati Reds Team.
Thank you to Louis Castillo for being such of an amazing pitcher. Now go out and get that ring!.
To Nick Krall thank you for
Having the vision and guts to make
This trade. You have started the Reds on road to recovery. I said some terrible things about you but I am wrong. You do have a vision for
This baseball team.
Now we got the prospects to trade for Soto!
Lol. That would be awesome if thats the idea.
Not really, we wouldn’t be able to extend him. Wasted here. He was offered, supposedly, near $400 million and turned it down. No thanks. No chance the Reds F.O./ownership pony up and if they did, they’d whine for 10 years about being broke and we’d ONLY have Soto and a bunch of independent league players in the lineup and rotation.
a successful team is built three starting pitcher and five top releaver who can give three good innings if he hits home runs walk him his Era will drop cin is building a team step by step go back in time when rose,bench,Morgan,foster played for cin those players were players of a team
Krall and the Reds go in the right direction, a stocked farm system. Strength at shortstop has always been a key to a competitive Red’s team. I’ve been a fan ‘forever’ and look forward to seeing the Red’s develop as a real good team. We’ll miss LC but I’ll root for him and Suarez and Winker in the playoffs.
Queue the Michael Scott/Office “GIF” of “It’s happening” as chaos reigns supreme with everyone running to and fro.
That’s Doug Gray at his headquarters processing all the Reds prospects movement.
Updated MLB top prospects puts Marte as new Reds #1 and Arroyo at #6.
Shaping up to be a really strong farm system. I might be watching more MILB than the Reds.
I said they should get exactly what they got.Just a great deal for the Reds and now let’s get what we can for some of our older players on one year deals.Hope we see some minor league guys get some serious playing time the rest of this year.Bell in my mind was put on notice that you will not be here in 2024.Krall isn’t acquiring young talent so they can go for coffee and doughnuts.Roster in 2024 will be young athletic and fun to watch something we haven’t had in years.Keep dealing Krall.Great return for Castillo.
Yep, cup of coffee days are done and playing older veterans is coming to an end. The front office is doing what most of us said would be done. Stockpiling for 2024 and waiting for Moose and Votto contracts to come off the books.
Interesting I was looking at the reds top 30 prospects, and all four from seattle are listed, yet the met prospects are not.
I like this trade more than the Naquin trade. Stock piling the farm system is what needs to be done. I still say they can compete next season. Revamping the bullpen is in my opinion a must. I still say keep Mahle as you can never have to much starting pitching. Yet if Williamson is ready why not see what can do this season.
I don’t see Pham or Solano, Drury drawing much of a return. I would like to see Farmer go to a contender. I would just release Moose and take the hit.
Time will of course tell the story.
A couple of months of a 4th OF is not the same as a year plus of a #1 SP. The return Naquin got is the same you will get for Pham, Drury, and Salano – a few low level prospects that you hope at least one of them makes the ML roster at some point
Like many others, I’d like to see them consider keeping Drury and giving him time at first base.
Interesting to see BA having Marte ranked so much lower than the other services (Law, Kiley, FG and MLB Pipeline all have him in the top 20). Guessing it has to do with the fact that he likely won’t stick at SS.
The next four days could be very interesting and revealing. The Reds now have a glut of high end SS talent. There is also Cam Collier who just signed for top 10 spot money as a 3B.
Mahle who could bring a similar return to what Castillo brought. Dury should bring a strong piece or two. Solano, Pham, and Farmer are probably all also very marketable. If several more of these MLB guys are moved for similar prospect capital where are the Reds going to put all the incoming talent?
Maybe something else is going on here. By moving early on with the likes of Naquin and Castillo, perhaps Krall is gathering pieces for a move or multiple moves higher up the development chain as the deadline approaches.
I’m waiting until the deadline has come and gone before I spend any time and energy surmising who might fit where and when with the Reds until I see who is still with the Reds organization when the deadline bell rings on Tuesday.
The Reds have proven over the last four years that being super conservative with top prospects, playing older players, and putting together a patchwork bullpen has not worked. Prioritize bullpen development and fast track the young talent. You never know, maybe we catch lightning in a bottle and field a competitive team sooner than later. Hope springs eternal.
Great observation and so true.I know I upset the nation sometimes by saying play the young players but if you want to build a team that competes year after year you have to do just that.Watching 4 and 5 tool players in the early 20’s is going to be really fun.Players who can win a game in multiple ways is where baseball is at now.Sure you need a thumper at first and at DH but the rest of the players must have other skills beyond hitting cause when they don’t or can’t hit they have no value.
Roger my question is how long will long will these 4 linger in the minors? I see the O’s top 2 draft choices from last year’s draft are in double A and doing well.
This Castillo trade is setting the blueprint for how the Reds can sustain being competitive year in and year out in the future. The better players will now start their trade clocks 2 years out from becoming a FA. As much as we don’t want to see our better players leave, the haul brought back in this trade shows that young top talent can be brought into the organization. Ideally, they will do the same when it comes to Stephenson, India, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft. I’m not saying that they all will have trade value equaling Castillo when that time comes, but it should be something that management needs to seriously consider if they don’t want to spend big on FA. Recent big money FA failures(Moose and Shogo) should have management viewing FA in a different way. No more long term contracts and the Reds should not have players over the age of 35 on the roster in the future.
Agree. I love what Krall is doing. Gone are the days when players can stick around for their whole career. You want to win or keep holding on to has beens? I think Steveo that 35 might be high. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds lower that to around 32-33.
Yes, ideally you’re right. If management continues to follow that plan, we shouldn’t need to have players older than 32-33.
Reds will presumably have $16 mil coming off the books by the end of this year with Minor and Pham gone and then another $43 mil following 2023 assuming Votto and Moose options aren’t picked up for the 2024 season
Arroyo is the youngest of this new group and projected ETA is 2025
That’s almost $60 mil a year by 2024 to convince Stephenson, India, Greene, and Lodolo to stick around through that 2025-2028 window
Remember, the Reds traded Dan Straily for Castillo. Castillo more than did his job for the Reds this year, making himself into the top pitching trade target. And Krall has leverage that into vastly improving the farm system and increasing the odds of championship baseball returning to Cincinnati.
Castillo didn’t get there on his own. That a a credit to Derek Johnson (coaches), David Bell for managing Castillo to maximize his value, and for the catchers!
We owe a huge thanks to Castillo for all he did for Cincinnati!
And… Krall’s not done.
You are correct. And Luis Castillo is obviously a talented and nice guy. I wish him and the M’s success.
Yes, you can say that Straily turned into the 4 prospects after 5 plus years with the Reds.
The Reds have squeezed the Seattle farm system this year:
Reds got : Marte, Arroyo, Stoudt, A. Moore, Williamson, Phillips (aside Justin Dunn hopes of a likely recovery)
Reds gave: Winker, Suárez and Castillo… 29-30 years-old premier players…
Could ELDC become the next Mickey Mantle? 5 tool switch hitting greatness?
No. The only thing he has in common with Mantle are that both are switch hitters.
EDLC is fine prospect. Mantle was an all-time great.
Like some I still feel the Reds will be competitive in a so so NL Central next year. This year’s experience for Greene, Lodolo & Ashcraft is huge. Along with Mahle is a really good rotation. Hopefully we get Sims and Antoine back. These were trades made were really good. Gotta keep some butts in the stands. Does anyone think we can package one of the younger minor leaguers with Moose to free up his money to sign a decent outfielder? Like I said I’m thrilled with the returns. Being I’m 67 with stage 4 cancer sure would like them to contend next year. But been hanging my hopes on the Reds for 61 years so that won’t change.
Krall just the max for Castillo and the Mariners are going for it this year and next.Its a win for both clubs and I can begin to see that Krall is doing what he said he would do to build from within.Exciting times if the Reds continue to move forward.
This is Krall’s chance to either make it or not as a strong GM for the Reds. With continued success he could have the authority to make a managerial change when he’s ready.
Krall was handcuffed when he had to trade Winker, Suarez, etc. to cut payroll. Nice to see him make what looks like an excellent trade without those restrictions. Mahle is the vet now( I don’t consider Minor as part of the rotation after this year) and might be an affordable keeper.
Have the Reds ever had such a gaggle of promising middle INF in the minor leagues?
Yes. Early 1960s. Cardenas and Chacon. Rojas and Tovar. Rose and Helms. All became MLB players. Some for the Reds. Some for the rest.
I think that the reds got 4 good players for Luis Castillo. Although It is a bummer that we lost a great All-Star pitcher I am excited to see the players that we got rise up to the majors.
Robert Hassell was my #1 wish.
I had Kelenic, Arroyo, Brash and Hancock coming to the Reds in a Seattle deal.
Would have loved to have gotten Kelenic maybe instead of one of the SS, but who knows, maybe he will be a multi-year AAAA player and not quite make it over the hump. Would have been a nice time to buy a bit low though.
This trade reminds me of another Reds trade in 2011. In terms of 1-for-4 numbers only. Circumstances were different but the numbers were the same.
SDP traded Mat Latos to CIN for Volquez, Alonso, Grandal, and Boxberger. The latter three were among the Reds most prized minor leaguers in 2011.
The Reds got what they wanted. Latos was their best SP on the 2012 division champion Reds. He pitched three good years for the Reds.
The Padres got what they wanted. Four major leaguers in return. Grandal and Boxberger are still major leaguers today.
Arguably Latos and Castillo had comparable records as SP before the trades. SEA will very likely get what they wanted (ace SP) in Castillo.
At least two or three of the prospects the Reds acquired will need to become major leaguers for this trade to work for both teams.
Yes, except for that last point. If ONE of these guys becomes the next India, the Reds have won the trade by a lot. They’re much better served by 5 years of India than 1.5 years of Castillo (especially when we’re talking about a team that isn’t too likely to win the World Series in those 1.5 years).
I don’t think so. At least two need to be major leaguers for the Reds.
Castillo is an ace SP in his prime.
What’s the value of having an ace in his prime for one year if you’re not planning to surround him with a playoff caliber team? He’s having arguably his best season this year, he’s 4-4, and the Reds are awful. That’s what an ace in his prime has done for this team. I’d much rather have another India-ish player available for 2024-2030 seasons than an ace in 2023. It’s not even a close call.
The Reds haven’t had many ace SP whether in their prime or not.
Tom Seaver was one from 1977 to 1981 but the Reds didn’t trade him.
Two or three of the four prospects have to become major leaguers. Period.
I don’t understand your argument at all. You’re basically saying it’s more important to have one great pitcher on a lousy team than one good shortstop for five or six years on what might be a very good team. I suppose if you really love pitching more than anything else it makes sense, but if the goal is to win a championship (or even have a shot at one), it doesn’t.
The Reds didn’t trade Seaver after his great 1981 season. They had him to anchor the staff in 1982 when they lost 101 games and finished 28 games back. Call me crazy, but I think the team would have been better off with one good young major leaguer from 1983-1989 than Seaver in 1982.
Cheer this trade if you want but it’s just another trade like the Reds have made before over the years. What have the results been? One WS title and a handful of playoff appearances in the last 30 years. Even if these prospects develop into quality players they won’t be here long either. It will be another round of trades because of course we’re “small market”. And it ensures years of losing until these players develop and developing players isn’t a strong suit of this franchise. Celebrate if you want but for me and other fans it’s the same old same old.
I wonder if Dipoto and Krall are buddies, which would be a good thing in general. Reds sort of look like they are following the Mariners model and Reds of today roughly corresponds with Seattle of 2018. Of the top of my head, this was:
* Dipoto traded everyone for young major league ready players, saying he could accelerate his rebuild by years..but most turned out to be AAAA players. (Fraley was part of this failed set of major leaguers from 2018)
* Dipoto collected alot of young and highly rated prospects at A (dunn i think was one of those, from yanks or mets)
* The entire scouting and player dev system was overhauled, with a lot of investment into training, sports medicine, analytics, scouting, mental health, international academy and scouting, etc. Have not seen this
* Establish an org philosophy on how to bat, how to field, and how to pitch. Have not seen this
If the Reds follow this model, they will be really bad for 2 years, a necessary pre-req to provide high draft picks to keep the farm system stocked since not everyone pans out, and then the team will start looking good at year 3 or 4. That would be 2025-2026 in Cincinnati.
Remains to be seen how many more Reds players are traded. Exciting to watch!
Of those 4 points, I think they have done the third – that was DW’s work, and though Boddy left I believe some of his staff and philosophy remain in place. But, oh my, the 4th point – where is any evidence of that?
Jon Morosi has a tweet up the Reds did very well and arent done.
Mahle, Drury, Pham, and Solano all generating interest.
If they could unload Pham and Solano, that would be great.
All four of those may not be Reds by Tuesday (August 2).
The Reds are pointing for 2025.
What about Farmer? Surely some contender must need an RH bat that beats on LH pitching as he does. Yeah, Solano is a lot of the same profile but lots of teams need that kind of guy, right? Plus, Farmer is younger and comes with 2 years of team control.
I could be wrong but I believe Farmer will stay through the deadline and then cut a deal for 2023. Reds have Stephenson and India but add Votto and Farmer as fan favorites to help sell tickets in 2023 and populate all the commercials.
I know to begin this trade period we all hoped the reds would go for the best players possible
With the returns we’ve already gotten, I now would like to see Moose’s stupid contract jettisoned so we can pay India, Stephenson, Greene, and or Lodolo
Keep that core around long enough for the cream to rise to the top
Yankees get Mahle and Moose for two more 18 year old lottery tickets or an 18 year old lottery ticket and a MLB ready reliever
Moose might be sent packing with Tyler Mahle but I think it would be a mistake to assume the money saved would be used to extend India or Stephenson.
I think they days of signing players to long term contracts are over for the Reds. The front office will be looking to move Stephenson and India in 2024 if not before.
Nick Krall has talked a lot about sustainability and that means play the young guys until they become expensive and then trade them. I doubt we will ever see any contracts over three years and probably not more than two. .
The Reds will just keep churning over talent in hopes it makes them competitive most years.
With all the people the Reds have on the 60 day IL and all the trade return coming in at 2:1 numbers or higher, it should be a zoo when the Reds get around to trying to set their 40 man roster for the winter.
If they seem busy now, imagine what it may be like between the end of the season and the date to lock in the 40 man.
Trying to see if any of the remaining, anticipated trades will land any catching. With Stephenson’s injury, it makes you wonder if they will look for more depth in the minor leagues. However, with Tanner and Hunter drafted in the 2nd and 5th rounds of the Draft, they have addressed at least the 2022 A level, if not A+.
Guessing Jones moves up to A+ next year. Guessing Nelson moves up to AA next year. Assuming Trautwein stays at A+ to start next year. From there, it gets questionable.
Astudillo likely becomes a minor league F/A. Vellojin is exposed to this winter’s Rule V Draft. I’m guessing they do not add him at the MLB level, but may protect him at the minor league level. If he remains, I’m guessing he slots at A+ or AA and CIN will need to see if he can make it to the AAA level. They will only have him 1-2 years before he becomes a minor league free agent.
Yang likely remains at AA. Robinson will become a minor league free agent. CIN will need to determine if Free stays at catcher. He’s expose to the Rule V draft this winter. He won’t be added to the 40MR, so we’ll see if CIN protects him at the MiLB level.
Okey and Kolsvary can become minor league free agents and I do not expect CIN to keep either on their initial 40MR. However, they could get minor league offers with invites to Spring Training. Same goes for Robinson and quite likely, Papierski. Garcia is a free agent this winter and I doubt he is back.
Stephenson is obviously the guy. However, I bet CIN looks to add a catcher to the 40MR this winter that can share catching duties with Stephenson as CIN decides if his future is at catcher or 1B. I can see CIN adding either Austin Hedges, Curt Casaili or Sandy Leon to a deal. Leon could get a minor league deal with incentives.
I’m not sure how teams will value Hedges. His defensive metrics could price CIN out of the contest. His hitting keeps them in the mix.
Casali is very interesting.
Outside chance of Barnhart coming back, but for way less money. I think there is a team out there that still thinks he is an A catcher though. CIN would doubtfully pay for such.
Signing either Hedges or Casali and then inking Leon to a minor deal (again) gains some depth. CIN can then turn to minor league contacts to fill out AAA.
There is some room to add a catching prospect in a trade but I doubt they want that player to block Tanner or Hunter, nor Nelson. Perhaps a window for a A-level catcher that can move up to A+ in 2023.
With all due respect, if Frank Robinson was an “old 30”, Barnhart would qualify as an “ancient 32”. I haven’t followed the Tigers to know his health status, but he has only caught in 61 games (60 starts) to date. His OPS is .496 and OPS+ 45.
Also, the Reds appear to have moved on from his philosophy of game calling. Castillo and Mahle relying more on their fastball and elevating their outcomes is a sign of that. As Chris Welch used to say in gentle veiled criticism, every pitch, even a waste pitch should look like it has a chance to be a strike out of the pitcher’s hand. The Reds are more to that spot now than they were with Barnhart who called a more traditional game.
Frank Robinson played from 1966 to 1971 as an Oriole at 30 to 35 YO. He averaged 30 HR and 90 RBI with .300 BA and .401 OBP those six years. His OPS .944 with Orioles was about the same as his OPS .943 with the Reds. His teams won 4 AL pennants and 2 WS titles.
He wasn’t old 30. Barnhart did a good job as Reds C.
Barnhart did OK with the quality of the pitchers he worked with. He developed a style to try and minimize their exposure and thus maximize their possibilities. But by and large, the pitchers who had the stuff to go right at batters did not prefer working with him. Castillo never really clicked with him. Gray and Bauer both appeared to favor working with Casali.
Miley and Barnhart turned out to be two old soulmates on the last roundup together. That’s something to recall and treasure.
And sure as the world, Robby wasn’t old at 30; but ancient is well beyond old, just this side of prehistoric.
I agree 100%, Jim.
Hard to follow a team like the Reds. Yes, it’s a business and stock pile the farm system is a priority, however who’s to say these prospects work.
I still believe players coming out of college are better prepared to make it than 18 year old unproven prospects. Time will of course.
More in likely 3 out of the 6 total prospect will make it to the Majors.
Unless, they are willing to leverage some of these prospects they’ve acquired over the last couple years for MLB talent, we are probably looking at 2027 before we are competitive again. That’s after the last “rebuild” yielded one Wildcard sweep. That’s it.
But, hey, where are we gonna go anyways??
I doubt it takes five top 100 prospects 4/5 years to move through the minor leagues. The ETA on many of these guys is 2024 Plus the Reds will over $40 million from the Moose and Votto contracts expiring to pay a couple of free agents. If a couple of these guys aren’t at least in AAA by the end of 2023 I would be surprised.
Joey Votto spent 6 years in Reds minor leagues (2002 to 2007).
Ideally the best prospects spend 1 year each at Rookie, A or A+, AA, and AAA then join the Reds in their 5th year.
Among HOF Reds, Frank Robinson spent 3 years in minor leagues. Tony Perez spent 5 years in minors. Johnny Bench spent 3 years. Pete Rose (HOF caliber) spent 3 years.
Feeling 2025 is the more realistic year for this team to really be a strong contender.
Ken Rosenthal at the Athletic has a great article on how the Castillo trade damaged the Cardinals who badly need SP. The haul the Mariners gave up increases the value of Frankie Montas and even some of the rentals and puts the Cards in a difficult position as they dont want to match the prospect capital Castillo returned but they desperately need SP.
Forgot the Cardinals blew the Marcel Ozuna trade December of 2017. They traded both Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen for Ozuna as well as Daniel Costano, the pitcher injured the other day. That trade didnt age well for the Dirty Birds.
Great point. Any dig at the WLB’s is a good thing in my book.
Never does with these long term deals that take players in to the mid 30’s.Reds even without Wink,Casty and Eugenio still have a boat load of DH’S.Look at our roster even today.Where is the power speed defense and arm strength in the line up today?Fraley is getting his cup of coffee today by the way?Krall is moving this organization forward now for sure.Glad to see a plan and hope he sticks with it.Won’t bother me a second to watch a bunch of young guys play and even lose cause its got just awful watching a bunch of older one dimensional players play a kid’s game.Go Reds.
Very sad to see Castillo go, was hoping that it would be with Toronto, but I am glad he gets to reunite with some former teammates. Seattle’s rotation looks pretty impressive.
I’m hoping at this point we go full rebuild and get rid of everyone that has value still. It’s going to be a rough few years in 2023, 2024. I think if these guys pan out with what we already have this team could be knocking on the door to the playoffs by 2025. In the meantime, I’ll enjoy watching the Blue Jays compete.
I am also looking forward to seeing what we get in the rest of the trades we hopefully make in the next few days.
Just wanted to say Castillo was my 2nd Favorite pitcher behind Rijo and in front of Cueto that I have seen as a Reds fan since 1988. Really going to miss him. Who knows, maybe the Reds resign him as a Free Agent after next season.
None of this is as exciting as winning real games with real major league players. Not one of these 4 players have experienced life in ‘the show’. Will they all 4 be as outstanding as some of these posts suggest? Maybe…but it is more likely that only one of them even gets to play In Cincinnati at all, much less obtain the kind of stardom some of you project.
I can’t even project the possibilities for EDLC, or Hunter Greene…a guy who nearly everyone has projected as a ‘can’t miss’ player for the last two years or more! How is that going? Many of the same people clamoring for him prior to his making the roster back in the spring, are now shouting about how straight his stuff is, how poor his command is, and a few other things. For the record, I think he will become a stud. Hopefully by next year, but who knows?
What we DO know, is that prospects, no matter how highly touted, are just that…prospects! Before we go all ‘googoo’ over them, allow a little time to elapse. Like, let them get through their sophomore seasons at least. Let’s see if they ever make the 26 man roster, period. Or become the next Nick Senzel, waiting for over 3 seasons to even begin to show us what he really is as a ball player. And what exactly is that, by the way? Even now, although showing a LITTLE progress, a LITTLE stability, he still is not measuring up to all his accolades over the years.
Losing Luis Castillo is a big blow! Who’s taking his turn in the rotation? Now, not only is our pen a disaster, but we only have 4 real starters, unless you care to consider Mr. Minor such. If they were to send Tyler Mahle to some fortunate team, we would be down to 3.
And that doesn’t even take into consideration innings limitations for Greene and Ashcraft. Spahn, Sain and pray for rain, anyone?
I don’t think for a minute our problems have been resolved by this trade, or that we have discovered some new magic fountain, making us contenders in 23, 24 or even 25, as many suggest. Neither do I believe this organization is suddenly going to turn around and stick to a real plan. We seemingly, haven’t had one for the last decade or so. And even at that, it simply does NOT work as smoothly as all that, Rays or no Rays. The only real path to success is to have deeper pockets than what Bob Castellini has. Color me…meh!
I agree with you. I admire the zeal of those who post here, but I do think many of the posters here wear rose colored glasses.
A couple of these prospects look very promising, especially Noelvi Marte, but as you point out they are still just prospects. There are no sure things when it comes to prospects.
All four of these prospects may pan out, but it’s more likely 2 or 3 won’t make it. It’s quite possible none of them will pan out.
Naturally, when the Reds make a trade, we focus on the return. We forget to think about what we are giving up.
Luis Castillo is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Castillo is a two time all-star and as of last night, he is no longer a Cincinnati Red.
I wasn’t against trading LC and from all I have read the return was very good. But you rarely get equal value when you trade a player like Luis Castillo.
Now, all we can do now is hope one or two of these guys pan out. But by no means, should we be penciling any of these guys into the line up. In fact, as you point out, even the ones who make it to Cincinnati could end up being role players instead of starters.
Also, one other thing, for those thinking the Reds will be competitive by 2024. Your expectations are totally unrealistic.
Successful re-builds take time. Look at teams like Detroit, Baltimore, Toronto, Seattle and San Diego. Their re-builds have been going on for a long, long time and appears they all have a ways to go.
Also, keep in mind, some successful rebuilds never result in a World Series title.
Just want to make it clear I think 2025 is the earliest that this team starts being a contender.
Let the SS analysis begin.
Farmer is at the MLB level. He is well below average in range this year. He is solid average in fielding. That means he can start on a second division team. That means he can keep the spot until a prospect takes it from him. He is solid and steady but unspectacular. He is going to get more expensive too.
Barrero’s range is now pretty good at AAA. I don’t know his long-term chances if he cannot improve upon his BB/K ratio. The inability to walk and the inability to keep from chasing sliders down and away will doom an MLBer. He has the tools to become a star though and we have seen flashes of brilliance.
McLain’s range is below average at SS and we are now starting to see him play 2B. I envision him a 2B or 3B.
Now what to do about De La Cruz. His range metrics are fringy. If he switches to 3B, I’m not sure that is the answer. His speed and arm would be fantastic in CF. In any event, he is an everyday SS at AA. Tough decision for CIN soon. AZFL will tell the story this Nov.
Steiger has great range but cannot compete with these other names.
Marte has below average range and I can see him shifting to 3B soon. That is another reason why I see De La Cruz going to CF. Marte is wasted athletically if he shifts to 1B.
And then you have Arroyo. He arguably has the most range of them all. I think he is the CIN SS of the future, unless Barrero matures his plate discipline. Nevertheless, Barrero could have 2+ years to prove his worth before Arroyo attempts to push him. That’s right in line for the arbitration years for Barrero.
Although it is a SS focus, we have mentioned 2B (McLain) and 3B (Marte and De La Cruz). I honestly think CIN needs to determine if India has the range for 2B. With the shift going away next year, I think it will show even more. Curious to see what a move to 3B would do for him.
I also think the elimination of the shift will help identify players with and without the adequate range necessary for SS. Right now, there is not much separation. If you look at the minor league RF/G metrics for the last 10 years of NL Gold Glove winners (Crawford, Baez, Ahmed and Simmons) their range factors were all in the high 4’s and low 5’s in the minors. Nobody in today’s game sniffs those metrics, so you have to adjust for that.