Back-to-back series against the St. Louis Cardinals? Yep! The Cincinnati Reds will welcome their National League Central foes to Great American Ball Park tonight to kick off a 3-game weekend series coming out of the All-Star break. Neither team has played since they faced off on Saturday. First pitch is set for 6:40pm ET and it’s going to be a hot one. You can watch for free on MLB.tv if you are out of the Cincinnati market.
Starting Lineups
Here are the lineups for this evening’s game:
St. Louis Cardinals
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
| Tommy Edman – SS | Jonathan India – 2B |
| Tyler O’Neill – LF | Brandon Drury – 3B |
| Paul Goldschmidt – 1B | Tommy Pham – LF |
| Nolan Arenado – 3B | Joey Votto – 1B |
| Nolan Gorman – 3B | Tyler Stephenson – C |
| Dylan Carlson – CF | Kyle Farmer – SS |
| Brendan Donovan – 2B | Tyler Naquin – RF |
| Lars Nootbaar – RF | Donovan Solano – DH |
| Austin Romine – C | Nick Senzel – CF |
| Adam Wainwright – SP | Graham Ashcraft – SP |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB | K |
| Graham Ashcraft | 54.2 | 4.45 | 1.35 | 12 | 32 |
| Adam Wainwright | 111.0 | 3.00 | 1.23 | 31 | 89 |
| Links: Graham Ashcraft’s Stats | Adam Wainwright’s Stats |
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Graham Ashcraft
After a disastrous start to end June against the Cubs where he couldn’t make it out of the 3rd inning, Graham Ashcraft has pitched well the last two times out against the Mets and Yankees.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 117 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 | .349 | .393 | .514 |
| LHH | 124 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | .209 | .258 | .261 |
Pitch Usage
| 2-Seam | Cutter | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 96.8 | 97.4 | 85.9 | 90.0 |
| Usage | 18.2% | 51.3% | 29.4% | 1.1% |
Adam Wainwright
Cincinnati may have caught a little bit of a break here as Adam Wainwright is much worse on the road compared to pitching at home. Away from St. Louis his ERA is more than double what it is at home, with a 4.10 road ERA while allowing more home runs, walking more batters, and striking out significantly fewer batters.
When it comes to splits against hitters he’s got some reverse splits going on. Right-handed hitters hit for a better average, get on base more (but walk significantly less), and hit for way more power. Lefties walk twice as often, but they don’t find nearly as many hits and they don’t hit for any power, either.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 227 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 48 | .276 | .313 | .439 |
| LHH | 228 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 41 | .226 | .303 | .348 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Cutter | Change | Curve | |
| Velo | 88.3 | 88.8 | 84.8 | 82.5 | 72.9 |
| Usage | 10.2% | 29.9% | 24.2% | 7.7% | 28.0% |
When and Where
- Game time: 6:40pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 89°, sunny, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
Reds sign more draft picks
Cincinnati announced the signing of four draft picks earlier today. Two players beyond those four have confirmed they signed, too. You can check out and keep up with all of the signings over at the Reds Minor League Draft Tracker page.
Reds sticking with a 6-man rotation for now
The Reds are sticking with a 6-man rotation, at least for now, David Bell said. Luis Castillo will start either Tuesday or Wednesday. If Wednesday, could be his last start as a Red
— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) July 22, 2022
3M taking an extra day off?
Let’s see if the friendly confines help us undo the WLB’s tonight.
I like the 6 man rotation. It gives Castillo 1 less start post AS break and stretches out Greene’s season and gives Lodolo and Greene some bullpen time to work out the kinks. Most importantly, if and when Castillo or Mahle get traded, the replacement pitcher is already in the dugout and you flip back to a 5 man rotation. The 6 man rotation is probably the strongest clue that at least 1 pitcher is being traded in the next week+.
Also looks like Wainwright pitches better against lefties, so nothing to read into with Moose on the bench in favor of Solano.
Alright signees, get your bags packed and start heading out to Goodyear, possibly direct to Dayton and Daytona too!
Seeing the stadium over Annie’s shoulder … crowd getting there early … not!!
Chattanooga line up 1-4 tonight
Siani CF
Elly SS
McClain DH
McGarry 1b
Thats intriguing. Hopefully Reds have 2-3 more roster additions to Dayton and Chattanooga in a week.
May have to keep an eye on that game as well.
AA will be the most compelling team in the organization for the remainder of the season. They have 4 or 5 guys that if things go well for them they could break with the 23 Reds out of spring.
I’m following McGarry because the Reds need a new first baseman yesterday.( DH in the NL so calm down V4L). Micah Greenhill over at Reds Content plus- a data driven Reds site- has an article up on Reds defense. His main point is if the Reds were simply average to a bit above average defensively with Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs saved , that would be meaningful enough to translate to a 3rd place instead of 5th place.
His comment on Joey Votto’s defense are spot on.
Votto OAA is -9 and runs prevented is -6.
“Among active first baseman, he is the worst in OAA and 4th worst of all position players in MLB…..the incredibly slow Votto is in the 11th percentile in speed, but hes in the 1st percentile for OAA”
But hey, hes only got 1 error as someone recently posted.
McGarry keep raking.
Spoiler alert- Farmer OOA and defensive runs saved 2nd worst on the Reds.
You get that game on MILB?
JB – yes on MiLB.tv … no blackouts there
Old School I have been following Scary McGarry too. I am very high on him.
Yep. The actual Reds game may be my 3rd choice to watch tonight after AA (young lions) and AAA (rehab guys, Barrero and the Reds hot Friedl)
Jim keep us posted on AA
Using history to judge that (120M) payroll is probably the limit of where Bob will let the payroll reach, the below template is designed to maximize payroll flexibility. No player should be over 15% of the payroll, 15% would equal (18M). The team would consist of 6 FA’s, and 20 “system guys”.
3 FA’s on contracts up to (3Y x 18M), and 3 FA’s on contracts up to (3Y x 6M) for a total of (72M) accounting for 60% of the payroll.
I’m using round numbers for the “system guys”, of (1M) for years 1, 2, and 3. (3M) for year 4, and (6M) for year 5. That would add up to (48M) for the “system guys” accounting for the remaing 40% of the payroll.
*FA’s*
1 FA signed up to a (3Y x 18M) contract, and 1 more FA signed up to a (3Y x 6M) contract each season. The 3rd year of the FA contracts should be mutual option, in order to give both the player, and the team flexibility. Every year 2 FA’s would fall off the payroll, and 2 would be added, maintaing the clubs 6 FA’s slots.
The team would be free from deals that are too long, or too expensive for their budget. I think there would especially be a lot of FA position players that would like to hit at GABP, boosting their stats on a short contract in order to get a larger contract from a big market team. They would be your tier 2 or 3 type of FA’s.
*System Players*
Every year add 4 “system players” to the roster. Trade “system players” after 5 years service time in order to refill farm system.
If there is a “system player” that you’d like to retain, use one to the 2 available FA contracts that come up annually. You would be buying out the 3rd, and final year of Arb + 2 additional years, with the final year being a mutual option. If your unable to sign the player, trade him.
The farm system would be replenished not only by the draft, but also by the trades every year.
P.S. Baseball shouldn’t leave me alone for so long in the middle of the season, I start to lose my mind a bit, so the above is the ramblings of a bored fan. I apologize to people who read this far down.
I might have to come back and read this. My brain is on shutdown right now.
Interesting take on how to spend money on players at the major league level. I have a totally different approach on how money should be spent. Spending money on players would come a little later in my approach. I believe first, money should be spent in the areas of player development at all levels of the minors, domestic and international scouting, nutrition, off-season training specifics to limit in season injuries and headhunting key personnel in these areas from teams that are successful in building their farm systems like the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners to name a few. The Reds need to build this foundation for sustainability and to be competitive at all levels year in and year out. Also, the organization must place emphasis on winning, in combination with development. Coaching staffs at all levels starting from the Reds, must be reviewed and changes made at the end of this season with proven winners, especially the managers. I believe spending money in these areas first and building a solid foundation will lead to having to spend money on FAs, as we will be developing the majority of the players on the Reds vs. getting them from other organizations.
Less money on FAs
MBS
Interesting analysis. I think the Reds will continue to attract free agents. They may sign one here or there who are unsigned at the end of Spring Training. Those players will likely to demand opt out clauses (like Castellanos) so they cash in on big years hitting in GABP.
Regardless, I don’t think it will be enough to make this team competitive. To accomplish that, team payroll would need to be around the $150 million mark annually. I don’t see the Castellinis willing to maintain that type of payroll.
The only chance this team has to be competitive is the Castellinis selling the team to someone who is willing to spend what it takes to make this team competitive. I think that is unlikely, as the Castellinis have pretty much destroyed the Cincinnati market.
Say what you want about Dick Williams, but he was taking this team in the right direction. It is just too bad, they wouldn’t stick his plan long enough.
* I meant the Reds will continue to have problems attracting free agents
and the break is over…. the rush towards the deadline begins….. will the Reds get on a 20 game winning streak forcing them to be buyers? stay tuned
Don’t make me give you negative points before the game even starts, sir!!!
For the record and for those who care (few, I know) it’s homemade chicken salad tonight. Grilling tomorrow – two nice T-bones in the fridge. 😀
Almost time to Kick this Pig!!
Good focus by Ashcraft, especially given he had to strike him out twice.
Stephenson out
Hard foul ball to right shoulder..
Was about to say at least it was in the shoulder/ collarbone area and not Stephenson’s head but the way he walked off was not very encouraging. Suspect the issue is more than a nerve stinger.
Stephenson is starting to remind me of Nick Senzel
This is not good
Stephenson. Good lord it’s been a rough year for him.
That may put an end to my watching tonight. Losing TySteve this early is NOT a good omen.
The look of pain on his face when he cocked his arm to throw … 😮
Any word on Garcia?
Papierski is headed on the path from waivers to most innings caught after being claimed on the team that claimed him!
At least its not a concussion, but wake up people. He’s too valuable a hitter to go through this. Devin mesoraco anyone?
He is exactly who I thought of. Meseraco 2.0
Kal Daniels as a catcher. Not gonna work
Hopefully it is just a bruise and nothing is broken
For those that want to keep Stephenson at catcher, it’s time to let that go. He must go to first base, outfield or DH. That is a;so why they need to get a catcher for Castillo and a good one.
Stephenson is not nearly as valuable as a first baseman or DH.
But way more valuable than sitting on his couch or back home in Georgia selling insurance and coaching 12u players and running a baseball academy.
And fans wonder why we should be looking for a catcher to allow us to move TySteve to first base and Joey to DH.
We both agree on that point. Now the General Manager has to go out and do his job.
Yep. We need outfielders and a catcher, not SS and P prospects.
And the wheels loosen a bit. Have to think the disruption played a part. We know a throw would have gotten Goldy at first.
Papierski better put his throwing hand behind his back like TS learned or Kyle Farmer may have to become our first string catcher.
Hail of bullets dodged. The “man down” really hurts tonight. The bats had better show up big time.
Stephenson needs moved from catching. For whatever reason, he seems like an easy target.
Now, wait for MRI results on the shoulder. Farmer the emergency catcher today in case something happens to Papierski. If results are negative, Stephenson to the IL tomorrow and Garcia activated or Kolozsvary called up. It’s a good thing we’re not playing for anything this season. Hopefully, results positive and rest for a couple of days only.
Stephenson is just too valuable to keep behind the plate. I hope some people finally get this into their heads. Hopefully, the injury is not too serious but it didn’t look good.
+10,000
The pain was evident. Kind of a freak accident.
His value as a catcher is much higher than his value as a 1st baseman. That is just the fact of the matter. I think they can limit his time behind the plate by getting a real 2nd catcher but moving him to 1st permanently weakens the team.
Hes literally their best hitter. What weakens the Reds is his bat not in the lineup. Catching keeps his bat out of the lineup. We arent talking theories of good hitting catchers catching..were talking about real data and conditions on the ground. The conditions on the ground are Stephenson cant stay healthy catching. That’s the deal.. Move off your hypothetical stance and live in the real world. Stephenson not in the reds lineup is the option you arent considering…..again and again and again.
His value healthy is higher than his value injured. His value injured is zero. His health is the preeminent consideration. The injuries are piling up for the young man, and these can have a cumulative effect, especially the concussions. I’d put him at DH and then reassess in the off-season.
We don’t even know if he can play 1st as some are suggesting. I agree his value is behind the plate or as a DH
Hanawi,
You are correct. He is one of the top offensive catchers in the league.
It has simply been a bad year for the Reds in every form, not only performance but luck.
Umpire is all over the place.
Ashcraft struck out Nootbarr and Edman. Ump sucks
Just wow…
Bring Okey up. The time is now. He can’t do much worse than their current back up
Lovely strike zone again tonight …
I swear, if the WLB’s score here, we’re cooked.
Sorry … I guess I jinxed it
This is on the umpire. Edman couldn’t hit that pitch on the outside corner, wasn’t where Edman wanted it, so he took the strike and the umpire gave him the call of a ball. Absolutely terrible. Ashcraft up over 50 pitches in 2 innings. Mostly because of this poor umpire.
That would be the 3rd K of Edman. He whiffed 2x in his first AB courtesy of a bad call.
At least he squeezed Wainwright
Meanwhile in Chattanooga … the Lookouts have dug the same early hole. Still waiting for our half of the 1st.
Alright, parpirski and farmer with the eye and the bat get second and third
and Naquin ties the game…. nice
And just like that, we were tied again …
Lookouts finally coming to bat down 3 runs. Let’s see how the young studs perform.
and now solano…. everyone picking up for Stephensons absence
What’ going on with the Ump ?
He’s just plain bad … like so many others in the league.
Umpire says wait minute here. I’ll control this game.
3 up, 3 K’s for the Lookouts.
Doug pointed out Wainwright’s road splits.
Like to see Ashcraft in the rotation as long as his innings limits go this year.
Ump was awful missing strikes and balls.
Is that Jim Day on WLW tonight? It doesn’t sound like Thrall.
Or maybe it’s both of them?
BUT BUT BUT Its the second half baby
But … but … but … BANG!!
Votto would be a fine Dh if he weren’t blocked by Moose.
+10,000
Mentioned it before but I’ll say it again. Votto has clearly benefited from time on the IL and other rest periods the last few years. He can be a very productive player if the Reds would be smarter about his playing time. Could easily play 5 out of 7 games or something like that with more DHing next year.
+5,000
And McGarry whiffed. Our first 4 all out the same way in Chattanooga.
Why 2023 is completely hopeless and decisions should be based on 2024. i mean were talking about someone named Michael papierski has gotten most of the catching reps mid summer 2022.
Apparently the Who were playing a gig somewhere in the Midwest (Ohio, I think) and drummer Keith Moon passed out at his kit just as the concert was starting.
Pete Townsend went to the mic and asked out into the crowd: “Are there any drummers out there?”
Apparently some young kid went up to the stage, they confabbed for a bit and he sat in with the band for the gig.
Not conflatting the Who with the Reds….but I was thinking about this tale when Papierski was called up.
Todd Snider has a pretty analgous story about it, being in the right place at the right time.
Not sure if the TV feed has said it, but Nuxhall’s wife died on Thursday. She was 93. I always love hearing the Old Left-hander call a game. Day’s choked up a bit … and he’s sitting in Joe’s old seat in the WLW booth.
That’s a sad tale, but likely (hopefully) a long enjoyable life for her with Joe and family.
I grew up listen to JN listening to WLW on the car radio in Houston.
One thing I enjoyed about Nuxhall were the times he’d be alone in the booth.
Joe was pretty laconic anyhow, but I’d swear a minute or more would go by with him saying anything.
You’d here the crowd, some crickets and maybe Nuxhall chewing on something or dragging on a coffin nail.
Sometimes you’d hear the crack of the bat and the crowd response and it would Joe 5 to 10 seconds to respond.
He had to swallow or put down his cig or something.
Slow paced broadcasting for a slow paced game.
I loved it.
Long gone but not forgotten.
+1,000,000
The ol’ lefthander was quiet like you say if the other team got a hit and sometimes if the Reds got a hit but he could really get excited when the Reds were knocking the cover off the ball or hitting a HR.
Oh, agreed, Mr. Adams. Nuxhall was real, in the positive sense, one way or the other.
When he was in the Dog Days of Summer #62 or when he was unabashedly, genuinely excited.
He never faked it.
Reds in good shape. Its a bullpen game. Only need 12 more outs.
I was hoping this would be a blowout one way or the other.
Not sure I want to start off the 2nd half of the season watching the Reds pen try to hold a one run lead over 4 inning.
That looked like it was gone off Drurys bat
Stephensons clavicle is broken, multiple reports
Yikes.
Bad injury, however common.
I broke mine in a bicycle accident 30+ years ago.
Still feel it now.
Stephenson done for the year with broken collar bone.
Anyone still saying he’s a good hitting catcher despite the fact he never plays catcher? He also not injury prone . Thats a weak attempt to assassinate his character to defend your wrong take…kinda like attacking Senzel for getting Covid.
C’mon Hanawi and Kevin H and VFL and others? You still saying Stephenson should be a catcher or are you going to admit you are..wrrrrr….wrrron…..wrong?
It might be too, late, actually.
That’s a tough injury to get full shoulder operation afterwards.
Hopefully, things have gotten better since I broke mine.
They need to find a catcher in a trade and move Stephenson to first base.
Maybe in Spring Training 2023.
Sounds like he’s out for the season.
Ugh.
Clavicle will heal. But it will take more time than we have season left. At best, he’s back in late September when we could put all 40 on the roster.
Poorly designed joint the A/C….according to some kineseology folks I talked to after I broke mine.
A lot of weird rotational stresses on a thin bone and strange connection to the clavicle / shoulder bones.
I hope TySteve just shuts it down until next year.
What’s the point of rushing it?
He’s done this year no doubt. My left shoulder is barking at me with simple things. Trying to reach back for the seat belt is awkward. Connecting your arm to your chest on a throwing shoulder for a catcher is a big deal. This is a huge injury.
Just back from my walk and before I refreshed the page, I asked my wife for the update on TySteve. The kid has just been a magnet for stuff this year. I guess that explains why he couldn’t make that throw. A little surprised he could throw back to the mound.
On a happier topic: Hating the Cardinals.
Why do they bring out for NL fans the same contempt as the Evil Empire does in the AL?
The two are merging into one.
Edman and Arenado have stepped right in the shoes of the loathed Carpenters.
If I were Bell I’d be throwing at Edman (back, leg) out of sheer principle.
+1
They are who we want to be. I do hate them, though.
Agreed, in some respects.
Dietrich was about the jaggiest Red in a while.
Guy was unbearable.
He wouldn’t even get a tryout for hatability on the Cardinals.
The Houston Asterisks are likely the only other team moreso.
reds just keep on pounding here. Too bad Ashcraft got squezed out of a win today
Easy….it’s still early.
Naquin in “trade me!” mode.
Not that many French surnamed players in MLB. Nice to have had one for awhile.
well even if…. he wouldnt qualify cause he was pulled earlier then 5 innings
Check.
A little rugged out there for GA.
I liked the version of Ashcraft when he first came up getting so many groundouts instead of going for Ks.
I wonder what has change?
My wife cant hear and usually doesnt watch the Reds or listen to any of the game. She just said “ who is this announcer? Hes awful. He sounds like a guy at a carnival or a fair “
Good for you and your wife that she still recalls what somebody sounds like at a carnival or a fair.
Went to an music instrument auction at South Austin Music a couple weeks ago and they had an old boy in calling the bids who must make his living with cattle or horse auctions.
His vocal delivery was awesome.
Like at the carnival or fair…a lot better to hear live.
So Sadak has a career post Reds?
If he learns Spanish and wants to work down here or SOTB.
What do I know, maybe he does speak Spanish.
Too funny. I’m enjoying Day sitting in with Thrall. His comment of the inning the last WLB set was “couldn’t hit that with a boat oar”.
So some of the Bell Bullpen theory just got played out again.
“Pitch your best reliever against their best hitters, no matter the inning.” is my take on it.
So Diaz got sent in to face 3-4-5 in the Curds order even though it’s the 7th inning.
Shut them down now in a seesaw game.
Maybe some sense behind it?
Day and Thrall had that take on it
That’s interesting.
Seemed like Bell backed off it for a little while and tinkered trying to find a couple set sequence of relievers (with this woeful lot) such as what some folks here were calling for.
For some teams the classic sequence is probably just right.
There’s such a huge chasm between “mediocre at best” and “the rest of the Reds’ relievers” that maybe the Bell strategery is worth a try.
Now India Joins the fun
I like the Senzel-India-Dury setup in the lineup.
Would enjoy seeing this unfold for a little while.
Isn’t time to Pham down in the order.
way past time. Doubt anything will change tomorrow. A lefty on the mound.
Past time
Had to rewind to see that monster shot by RoY
Top 5th
Blue Jays 25, Red Sox 3
I saw that. Most runs ever scored at Fenway. they might need a pitcher????
or two
an inside the park grand slam
Walk Corey Dickerson … SMH!
wait, we are at home, where is barry
Gibaut should be keel-hauled in my managerial debut with the Reds.
Two outs. Two strikes on a .202 hitter and you walk him
What does he understand his job to be at the moment?
Who is reminding him of that?
His job is to just let it rip as hard as he can just like very other pen piece.Same sermon for last 2 years and maybe just maybe they ain’t getting it.
He was throwing what you’d think would be an interesting mix: cutter, 4 finger fastball, change, slider.
Things were all over the place though.
The pitch to Edman after a dozen fouls was right over the plate.
Edman waited him out, fouling off junk.
Got to be tougher than that.
OK. Three more outs and we start back up with a win.
Bell is a joke as a manager.Why on earth is he still here?One inning at a time with these guys and you know whats going to happen.Five days off and we can’t ask a guy to start another inning with a pitcher warming.Of course not he had this scripted and he will not change anything.
He has no idea how to make in game adjustments. You can’t have everything scripted, no idea where he got that idea.
He’s part of the “in crowd” … but we all know that. His position is among the most secure in the organization.
Looking forward to Papierski’s slow ascent to the Mendoza line.
You can do it Pap!
Pap has walked twice tonight!
That’s “Tiger” Papierski to you, big fella.
Feels good.
Reds Win
Tough to say it, but the Bell bullpen tinkering strategery worked tonight.
Pitch your more dependable guys against their better hitters, no matter the inning.
Diaz in the 7th was the right move.
Of course, AD performed…..