The Cincinnati Reds had four picks on the first day of the draft, covering the first two rounds. They selected two third basemen, a catcher, and an outfielder on the night. There are still 18 rounds to go over the next two days, but day one seemed to go quite well for the organization.
1st Round, 18th overall: Cam Collier
In what feels like the steal of the 1st round, Cam Collier made it down to the 18th pick in the draft after being almost universally rated in the top 10. The youngest position player in the draft graduated from high school early and then enrolled at Chipola Junior College in order to be draft eligible this year instead of next year (where he was the highest rated high school player).
Despite not turning 18-years-old until this upcoming November, Cam Collier more than held his own at one of the premiere junior college baseball programs in the country where he hit .333/.419/.537 with 20 extra-base hits, 25 walks, and 32 strikeouts in 52 games played.
The third baseman may have one of the best hit tools in the entire draft, above-average to plus power potential, a plus-plus arm, and strong and advanced approach at the plate.
1st Round, 32nd overall: Sal Stewart
It feels like deja vu all over again! Cincinnati’s second pick on the night was another young third baseman. Sal Stewart comes out of Westminster Christian High School in Miami, Florida and was one of the top bats in the high school class this year.
Stewart has an above-average hit tool, above-average to plus raw power, and is known for his quality at-bats and ability to handle good secondary offerings. No one really seems to question whether or not he can hit. The questions at hand for Stewart revolve around whether or not he can remain at third base in the long term. Already 6′ 1″ and 225 lbs as a high school senior there are more than a few scouts who believe his ultimate destination on the field will be first base.
This draft pick was available for the Reds due to compensation from losing Nick Castellanos in free agency.
2nd Round, 55th overall: Logan Tanner
Cincinnati went to Mississippi State to select catcher Logan Tanner with their 2nd round pick. There’s not much argument that he’s the best defensive catcher in the draft this season, showing off a big time arm and good receiving abilities behind the plate.
At the plate is where he has some areas he needs to work on. He never hit better than .287 in his three seasons at Mississippi State. His hit tool is considered to be below-average. Tanner does have some power potential, and he showed good power in 2021, but it regressed in the 2022 season as his slugging percentage dropped by 100 points.
2nd Round, 73rd overall: Justin Boyd
For their final pick on the first day of the draft, the Reds selected outfielder Justin Boyd from Oregon State. The 2022 season was the first year he played every day, but he took advantage of it as he hit .373/.490/.577 with 24 stolen bases in 62 games.
Primarily a right fielder in his two seasons at Oregon State, Boyd’s best bet for an every day job in the big leagues will be if he can slide to center because his power just doesn’t profile enough for a corner position. He’s got good speed, but he does lack the experience there. If he can play center it takes a little pressure off of his bat compared to if he can’t play center and he has to maximize every aspect of his game to profile as an every day guy.
Doug, assuming all 4 sign, where would you rank them in your prospect list right now?
Draft: I thought they would have taken at least one Pitcher so far!
Was taking 3b’men back to back wise?
It sounds like the Cather might be a reach!
The 3rd basemen wouldn’t necessarily end up playing third. Doug mentioned that Stewart, in the opinions of some scouts projects more as a 1st baseman.
Collier has the speed and arm to play OF and was a consensus Top 10 pick–picking him was the heist of the day.
Positionally, Stewart will have to work to stay at 3B.
Bottom-line: these guys are so far off, I want the Reds to take the best player available. If we’re fortunate enough that both earn their way to the Reds, Collier has the athleticism to move to other spots. It doesn’t concern me at all that both are listed at 3B by the draft pundits.
I don’t see a problem with it. A 3B could also play 1B, DH, or corner OF. Even if they both stick as 3B there is no guarantee either force their way onto the Reds roster in four years. If both become All Star 3B, worst case scenario you trade one to fill other wholes. If the Reds don’t screw up the rebuild they will eventually need prospects to trade at the deadline for someone else’s Castillo.
If the best players available are all 3B take one with every pick
You have third basemen play 2B and CF now. Position changes are probable.
Votto was signed as a catcher.
Collier seems like a steal! He was often 4-5 in mock drafts.. the other picks seem kinda long shots but who knows. I guess they will go college pitchers tomorrow?
I have to assume the 3 guys selected after Collier were “over drafted” to pay them less than their draft slot, so the $ could be used on Collier?
Would have selected Beavers with the comp pick (who went next selection).
Realize he didn’t hit for a high average (.291) but on-base percentage was .427.
So appears to have a good eye and good power.
Collier followed the path many top football recruits/ prospects follow these days by coming out of high school early. Then he doubled down by enrolling at a jr. college instead of a 4 year college which gave him the 1 year later access window to the draft.
Perhaps he fell from the top 10 projections because old school baseball organizations didn’t know how to fit a square peg into the round holes in their draft board?
The Bryce Harper scenario.
I think he fell because of signability issues. Why take him over a similarly ranked prospect accepting $1 million less to sign. Then he keeps falling and only a few teams can afford to sign him. The Reds took a hit with their last three picks of the day to get the money to sign Collier. If Collier was projected to be the first pick of 2023 then the Reds in essence get 2 of the top 4 picks in 2023, they just took Collier a year early.
This is a good way to look at it Stock. But I also would have preferred they shot for the moon and took best player available in the next 3 selections – so what if one doesn’t sign. The money becomes available to someone else that does sign. If you draft players in comp rounds and 2nd round who have very low upside, and therefore not much chance of making the league, then they are pretty worthless picks.
Stewart and especially Tanner were not the best players available when those selections were made. Stewart was ranked in the high 50’s and Boyd was ranked in the mid-100’s. We very likely only get 1 major leaguer (Collier) out of 4 very good picks. Could have done better.
That’s not how it works, Redsvol. If you don’t sign a pick you don’t get that slot money to sign someone else. For example, let’s say your overall bonus pool is $10M, and the #2 pick for your organization has a slot value of $2M and you can’t sign that player – you don’t get $10M to sign the rest of your players, you now only have $8M to sign the rest of your players.
I am so tickled that the Reds got Boyd. He was the 3rd OSU Beaver selected but will be the best pro of the three. He can play center as he is faster than Meckler and his bat has pop. Not the easy power of Meckler but he will be a good center fielder and he is a gamer.
Great OSU pipeline going with McGarry and Kevin Abel. It is good to see Abel throwing as coming back from surgery as he may have the highest ceiling. It will be great to see him get back to 6-7 innings. So fun
Hope our two new hitting prospects don’t take as long as Winker and Senzel to hit in the big leagues.
I don’t think Collier intends on taking very long to reach MLB; but, then he has yet to personally confront the thick molasses flow speed of the Reds development process.
I read that he had pitched some at the Jr. college and consistently worked in the “low 90s”. His first hurdle will probably be convincing the Reds development staff he shouldn’t give up hitting for pitching 😉 (only half jesting given their track record).
Senzel took 2-3 years
Winker took 4 years and was drafted at 18….come on dude. I think you have some unrealistic expectations. Not everyone is Mike Trout or Soto or Ronald Acuña Jr. or Julio RodrÃguez
But Winker was also a #49 overall in his draft class versus Collier being #18 and projected by many as a top 10 talent.
Collier is younger in chronological age but more advanced in baseball experience than Winker due to coming out early and playing the year at a high JC level. Collier has also played a season in the Cape Cod Summer (wooden bat) League.
I would think Collier sees himself on an elapsed timeline from draft to MLB of 2-3 full seasons, given normal growth, skills development, and no significant time lost to injury. He certainly did not take the trajectory he chose to sit around waiting to turn 22 or 23 just to be “old enough”.
My point is not when they made it to the bigs, its how long its taken for them to establish themselves as hitters. Winker finally did it last year to a large extent. Senzel has yet, imo.
Winker made his major league debut at 22. Not sure how much sooner you can expect a high school kid to get there sans being a superstar.
He’s 17 years old. In all likelihood he’s several seasons away from the Bigs and that is normal across MLB.
BK,
Yes, more like four or five years away. A couple years after that until he is fully established.
It’s hard for me to get excited about a player who may not make an impact in the major leagues until the end of the decade, if ever.
2 very young position players with first 2 picks. I love the Collier pick because he might move fast given the JC experience. But Stewart will take the typical 4-5 years and using both picks on basically teenagers mean the current core (India, Stephenson, Senzel) won’t get any help from them before they are ready for their free agent destination. We could have taken a player with much more experience that might have arrived in 2-3 years to help the core. There were many good college at bats and pitchers available at the #32 pick.
Save the $ to sign Collier with the later picks at #55, #73, and # 94 &123.
I wonder how well Cam Collier can run? We already have a “load” of 3rd basemen. Could he play left field (or right field, if he has a great arm?).
Logan Tanner looks like Chris Okey all over again, but maybe he develops as a hitter. A little old to see that happen, though.
Sal Stewart looks like a big man, and maybe the next 1st baseman for the Reds.
To me, it looks like these guys start out in Rookie ball (Montana) this summer. Maybe Collier gets promoted to Low A before the summer is out, if he tears it up at Rookie ball. So at the very least, most of these guys start 2023 at Low A. (unless Collier is THAT good and he starts at High A next season)
Maybe High A by mid Season for the rest.
2024; AA ball, with maybe promotion to AAA by the end of 2024. That’s being totally optimistic, with no injuries, setbacks, etc.
I think the SOONEST any of these guys touch the ML is 2025.
I would hope the same thing does not happen to Cam Collier as has happened to Nick Senzel; pulled from their natural position in the infield to the outfield.
Lots of people say this, but what’s a “natural” position? It would be interesting to see how many MLB teams keep all or most of their draft picks at the positions they played in high school. It has been mentioned here recently that lots of MLB players (Eric Davis, for instance) played shortstop as amateurs. Good athletes can adapt, and many teams besides the Reds ask them to do so. Don’t you think that Senzel’s injury history is the root cause of his struggles?
I rarely agree with greenmtred, but I agree here completely. Switching Senzel to the outfield is not the cause of his issues. Maybe you can blame a swing change on the reds, maybe. But overall, his health and lack of consistent playing time has led to the vast majority of issues people have with his performance.
I do think Senzel’s early years of hitting outfield walls is a root cause if his struggles.
Maybe, but it’s not as though 3rd basemen don’t run into walls or get run into, and running into walls is a hazard for all outfielders.
Billings is no longer affiliated with the Reds in the minor league mandated pare down instituted by Manfred.
However, Arizona is still affiliated and the only rookie league team we have. He could start out there.
OOps! Really? All that’s left is the Arizona League? Well, they start there, and maybe the best talents go to Low A this season.
Thanks, I think I read that but forgot it.
The current setup takes some getting used to. The Billings team and the league (Pioneer League) still exist. The league is called an “MLB Professional Partner League” and receives money and other support from MLB but the individual league teams are not affiliated with individual MLB teams.
The teams now sign and pay their own players. Many of these undrafted players are the guys who would have previously been drafted before MLB cut the number of rounds in the draft.
It would be interesting to know how much less the amount of MLB pass through money via the league to the teams is than what MLB was paying the players and providing in other support to the individual teams as full affiliates.
Very happy with the Collier pick. This draft went much better than I expected. I try to be fair with peopl3. I have given the GM constructive criticism for weeks. I give him the credit due now. Good job GM!! Keep it up and land gold mine of prospects for Castillo. Then, I will probably shut up.
Just an FYI. Billings is history.
You might want to tell them this 😉
https://www.billingsmustangs.com/landing/index
The Billings Mustangs still exist. They are just no longer affiliated with a Major League Baseball team and now operate as an independent league team.
Collier is listed on MLB.com’s draft pages as a “50” runner–which is league average on the scouting charts.
I saw Katuska say they were confident they would sign all 4 but especially the 1st 2. The Reds received a gift from the rest of the teams ahead of them and Collier is a touted in several places as a “sure thing”. If so, that will be a nice change in fortune.
The offense in Daytona could be loaded next year:
C: Tanner
1B: Stewart
2B: Jorge
3B: Collier
SS: Balcazar
LF: Alcantara
CF: Valdez
RF: Almonte
DH: Antonia
Maybe even the next month or two in AZL. I could see all nine of these players in the Reds top 25 come November 2023.
glad the reds went all position players yesterday. plenty of pitching out there now in the league. plenty of guys like Mike Minor and Wade Miley that can give you some quality starts. what we need now is position players that can hit. hopefully at least one of these guys is up here in a few years contributing with the bat
Sure, but it is hard to tell what the organizational needs will be by the time these guys are able to contribute.
We could be set for pitching right now, but an injury or two and we could be right back to #getthepitching.
Redcoat, I respect your baseball knowledge but I disagree with this. We can never have enough pitching, regardless of what is in the current pipeline. Pitchers get hurt constantly and future performance is very difficult to predict. Experienced league average pitchers get more and more expensive $ each year. Many journeyman starting pitchers got free agent contracts averaging 5-8 million$ last year.
Leave average position players are easier to find, develop, cheaper and carry more predictable performance. I would have preferred they got a pitcher or two in those first 4 picks. We have enough catchers in the system that can’t hit or recognize breaking pitches.
*Rednat
Bats! They’re taking bats. Except Tanner, which Doug has noted in that excellent defensive Cs can always find a place. Sounds like he’s already at the Okey level, so perhaps his bat can improve from that.
I like the approach, particularly avoiding high pick HS pitchers – too much risk considering so many college pitchers, with much more scoutable history, fall into the later rounds.
Just hope the analytics staff has thoroughly examined and correctly picked the bats, as opposed to focusing on SSs who can be moved later.
Ive been a big proponent of all-in for 2024 and 2023 can be a nice transition year to a new core. Pump the brakes on that. A perfect storm is brewing.
1.) Reds traded proven 2023 controlled players in Jesse Winker( good lefty MLB hitter) and Eugenio Suarez(proven power bat) yet no credible replacements for either in 2023.
2.) Reds about to trade Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle – proven MLB starting pitchers and controlled for 2023. Only hope left for building a credible roster in 2023.
3.) 1 year budget Fillers in Pham,Drury, Solano, and Minor are gone very soon. Not helping 2023.
4.) Upper levels of minor development not going well. Barrero AAA and McClain AA have stalled. Bad news for 2023.
5.) Austin Hedrick 2020 #1 draft is a bust. Not developing. Not helping 2023.
6.) Hunter Greene ( #2 pick)light years behind fellow draft pick Kyle Wright Braves (#5 pick) who was top pitcher in 2017 draft yet Reds took a pass. Maybe ok in2023.
7.) Reds drafting 17 and 18 year olds and with a no hit tool catcher in top 3 picks in 2022 draft and not ready till 2025…maybe.
Reds new Orioles. 2023 is a lost cause.
i wouldn’t mind being the new orioles in 2023. They look pretty impressive in June and July and have moved Candem yards fences back about 15 or 20 feet making it a more pitcher friendly park. The reds should do that too. the orioles won what, ten in a row in July?
Man, Old-School, might want to pick up some Tony Robbins tapes or something. That’s some major league pessimism you got brewing.
I guess it’s just hard for me to get too excited about a player who just got his drivers license a year ago.
No way of determining when he will be in a Red’s uniform, but it likely won’t be for years and years.
By the time this kid makes it to the major leagues India, Stephenson, Senzel and Greene will all likely be long gone. I would have preferred a college bat, who would have been ready in a year or two.
Personally, I think the Reds got the steal of the draft in Collier. You’re likely right that he’s several years from contributing, but he is exactly the type of high-ceiling player I want them to go after. The next college bat selected, catcher Daniel Susac, was one college bat I hoped the Reds would avoid due to the number of Ks he’s racked up in college. Doug’s pre-draft scouting report is below:
https://www.redsminorleagues.com/2022/07/03/2022-mlb-draft-scouting-report-daniel-susac/
Take a look at the #s of Reds 5th round pick, Cade Hunter. Most of Susac’s value is in his defense (solid average) compared to Hunter (average)–perhaps a 50+ FV for fielding vs. a 45+. Reading their scouting reports for hitting, both crush FB, but have questions about how well they hit off-speed pitches. I think we got a better defensive catcher in the 2nd round. The next college bat was picked at #25. In short, I think the best of the college bats were gone at #18.
Collier was a consensus top 10 pick, ranked as high as #2 (The Athletic). His numbers as a 17-year-old playing JC ball are impressive–he should have been in high school. Several analysts stated he would have projected as the #1 or #2 player in next year’s draft. It’s incredibly hard to predict how these players will develop, but it’s very hard to argue the Reds placed the very best they could at #18.
I found some video of him (Cam Collier). He is a VERY impressive young man. He sort of reminds me of Josh Hamilton. Hamilton was very young when he was drafted, but even then, he looked like a man playing alongside boys.
I think Collier could be a really SUPER talent. I would not be surprised, barring injuries, if he was in the Majors by his 20th birthday.
I like their draft……every one that has been picked especially the high picks have a plus hit tool. Hopefully they will hit on a high draft pick catcher, but it seems like they find value with pitchers in rounds 3 or later I think they have done so this year
Love the pick and enthusiasm for Collier. He’s got the baseball pedigree from Lou and clearly came up with a plan to navigate his course through 2 years of Covid Shutdown. But,,he’s 17 and dominating junior college for a spring against guys who have had shutdowns the last 2 years or perfect game tourneys against 17 u high school players trying to a get a d1 look…but going to d3 instead after a covid shutdown doesnt mean hes on the fast track to the major leagues. It just means he found a way to navigate through covid and stay on his goals.
Hunter Greene was the #2 pick in June 2017. it’s July 2022 and Greene is getting crushed at the MLB level. Nobody drafted the last 48 hours is helping this team in 2025- let alone 2024 or 2023. A couple might help in 2026.
Why is Elly De la Cruz still in high A? One reason. The reds are failing miserably in 2022 developing players and need a positive story. keep EDLC raking. Krall cant afford a slump from his one star. Barrero? McClain? Hendrick?Greene? F,C,F,D.
The story of 2022 is quickly becoming a Reds faceplant at developing players all the while they are claiming the positive for a 100 loss team is a focus on player development.
If the Reds don’t have the resources to sign lots of free agents, then the only path forward is through massive player development. But you’re saying this hasn’t happened. So, does it even make sense for us to pay attention to the Reds for the next 5 years?
The International draft is another avenue where they can add talent…That’s where they really need to make their mark.
I’m pretty indifferent towards this pick. I’m not ecstatic about it or necessarily opposed to it. I just wish the Reds would have selected a college player instead.
It was a safe bet for whoever was responsible for making this selection. That person will be long gone by the time this young man makes it to the big leagues or flames out. So no one will be held responsible for this pick.
With so many good young hitters playing D1 college baseball, it just seems to me that the Reds could have selected someone closer to the big leagues.
Which college player would you have preferred?
I don’t know. I don’t follow college baseball all that closely. But, I do know there are 299 Division 1 baseball programs. Surely, out of all those teams, there was at least one impactful hitter the Reds could have drafted.
Juan-Michael Soto-Trout sadly wasn’t available to be picked.
I think the Reds took the best available player and I applaud them for it. I wish they had taken a college hitter or a pitcher at #32 instead of another young 3B. Tanner was a good pick; he might develop into a MLB catcher. They selected a couple of promising arms on Day 2. Overall, a solid draft.
All players drafted will take time to develop.Guys like Acuna and Soto don’t happen often.Pitchers take even longer to develop.Pick you favorite pitcher and go back and look what they did the first year or two or three.See anybody that came on the scene and dominated?Its rare if they do just like position players but one thing all had in common they got a legit chance at the big league level.For a very number of players it takes 30 or 40 starts and 800 to 1000 at bats before you can truly know if they can or can’t.If Swanson in Atlanta were a Red he would have been thrown under the bus half way through his first season yet now in what his third or fourth season he has just started to hit.Drafts are important but unless you actually give players a legit chance in the majors it means little who you draft.Patience with young players is critical and yes they need to perform in the minors but getting hitters out or hitting major league pitching is always the last things to happen.