**Before I get into all the details of the game tonight, I want to acknowledge that I know I made a mistake in yesterday’s game preview when I referred to Cubs pitcher Justin Steele as a right-handed pitcher. He is, in fact, a lefty pitcher, and I somehow did not catch that before posting the article. I’m usually so good with details, but apparently yesterday, I missed a big one. Ok, now on with the rest of today’s article**
The Cincinnati Reds (26-48) and the Chicago Cubs (29-46) will play a third straight night game at Wrigley Field in the rubber match of this three game series. Graham Ashcraft will be on the mound for the Reds and will be opposed by right-hander (yes, I triple-checked that this was true) Kyle Hendricks.
Details:
- Time: 8:05 pm ET
- Place: Wrigley Field
- Weather: 87 degrees; partly cloudy
- TV: Bally Sports Ohio
- Radio: 700 WLW
Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
|
Chicago Cubs |
| 2B Jonathan India | RF Rafael Ortega |
| 3B Brandon Drury | DH Willson Contreras |
| LF Tommy Pham | LF Ian Happ |
| 1B Joey Votto | 3B Patrick Wisdom |
| SS Kyle Farmer | SS Nico Hoerner |
| DH Mike Moustakas | C Yan Gomes |
| CF Nick Senzel | 1B P.J. Higgins |
| RF Max Schrock | 2B David Bote |
| C Michael Papierski | CF Christopher Morel |
-Several Reds players in the lineup tonight have home runs off Hendricks in their career, including Kyle Farmer, Mike Moustakas, and Nick Senzel. Joey Votto has hit two off him with four RBI in 25 at-bats.
Starting Pitchers
| Name | IP | ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| Graham Ashcraft | 41.1 | 3.27 | 3.23 | 3.74 | 3.58 | 1.09 | 15.8% | 4.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | 75.1 | 4.90 | 5.22 | 4.87 | 4.62 | 1.30 | 17.2% | 6.6% |
REDS
I’d say Ashcraft is the biggest surprise of this 2022 Reds season, but if you have been following his minor league career the last few years, you aren’t surprised at all. In 2021, he had 2.33 ERA and a 2.25 FIP at High-A, and then a 3.36 ERA and a 3.19 FIP in 72.1 innings at Double-A. Earlier this season, he pitched to a sparking 1.65 ERA at Triple-A. He’s just carrying that over to the major leagues.
A large part of Ashcraft’s success has come behind his cutter. He’s not just locating his cutter; he’s throwing it at 99-100 mph. I mean, just look at this pitch from his most recent start in San Francisco.
Graham Ashcraft, Vicious 99mph Cutter. ? pic.twitter.com/mFiwVFWY9R
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 25, 2022
Between the cutter and the slider, Ashcraft really hasn’t had to use his sinker or his change up. He will occasionally mix in the sinker (19.0% according to Fangraphs), and even that can be a nasty pitch. His BB% is only at 4.1% and his K% is only 15.8%, but you have to look at the complete picture when looking at his stats. He’s never been a strikeout pitcher. His walk and strikeout totals are lower in part because he pitches to contact a lot. He forces more ground balls than anything else. His GB% is at 57.5% (almost 60% of the pitches hit against him are ground balls).
CUBS
While the Reds are putting a rookie on the mound, the Cubs are going with the veteran Kyle Hendricks. He’s been in the league since 2014 and in 2022, he’s having one of the worst seasons of his career. His ERA is just shy of 5.00, and his xERA currently sits at 5.22.
Hendricks has never been a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s also never been one to walk batters either. He has a career 20.0% strikeout rate and a career 5.5% walk rate. That hasn’t changed this season, with a 17.2% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. However, what has caused a lot of his struggles this season is that, unlike previous seasons, he’s giving up a lot more fly balls. In 2021, his FB% was at 33.8%. Currently in 2022, it’s at 43.0%. That’s a ten percent decrease in one season. To correlate that, his GB% is down to 36.3% from 43.1% in 2021.
News, Notes, and Pregame Reading
Tyler Naquin begins a rehab assignment today with Triple-A Lousiville, and there’s good news about Tyler Stephenson as well. You can find that all here.
Redleg Nation writer Richard Fitch wrote about Nick Senzel this morning.
Old friend alert: former Reds prospect Narciso Crook was called up to the big leagues by the Cubs today. It will be his MLB debut when he plays.
The #Cubs today selected OF Narciso Crook from @IowaCubs and placed OF Jason Heyward on the 10-day IL (retroactive to 6/27) with right knee inflammation.
Additionally, OF Michael Hermosillo has been transferred to the 60-day IL. pic.twitter.com/MtiKFf7EbB
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 30, 2022
Reds Memory of the Day
This game was one of the all-time great Reds games, at least in my lifetime. The comeback leading up to the 9th, the grand slam–it had everything. I’m pretty sure I scared everyone in the house at the time when I screamed at the TV as Dunn hit that ball.
June 30, 2006: Adam Dunn sends everyone home with a walk-off grand slam missile. ? #RedsVault pic.twitter.com/5pqHNW7bSz
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 30, 2022
Perhaps it skips a game and we pound the Stupid Cubs tonight.
Jury’s still out on 3M and his contributions … we shall see.
Remember exactly where I was at.Visiting family near Athens and heard the call on WLW
The Reds have split the first 6 with the Cubs. They need to make a statement tonight. Humiliate the Cubs. Beat them like a drum. Otherwise, the Reds lose a game in the standings vs. when they arrived in Chicago, pretty much eliminating the myth that they are the better team. Splitting with teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago is truly unforgiveable.
+5,000
Buckle down, Graham
Not a good start. Nick wasn’t paying strict attention to what was going on there. Cost an extra base (Happ).
Terrible play by Senzel. Not paying attention, throwing the ball with no chance to get runner. Yes, he has speed but he is not a center fielder. Ashcraft in a jam now.
Cowboy and Thrall saying he should know how aggressive Contreras is and should have thrown in to 2nd. He just wasn’t paying attention as you said.
NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
If there is a drawback with playing Drury at 3B, it’s his defense. He looks stiff and his arm isn’t the best. I’d rather see Solano at 3B.
If we somehow get out of this only giving up one run, I’ll be moderately pleased (or at least not as PO’d).
Tootblan. Bologna Welsh. Run everything out. Cowboy probably let him have it
WOW Reds not ready to play again.Saw this before last in Frisco.Reds on the bus already to the plane.Losing culture,don’t expect to win and won’t.
Cub players have been fired up the last two games. . Playing like it’s a playoff game. . Reds playing like they have no care.
Reds come out sleep walking, but they only get 1. Senzel’s arm is kind of weak so thats another hurdle to playing CF regularly. I think Contreras is one of the better baserunners I’ve seen in the NL.
There’s a lesson there…if you’re jogging to first base, you shouldn’t try to take second.
Votto? Omg? Not running and then gets thrown out easily. HOF? Ok, but what have you done for me lately? Zero leadership skills and a garbage baserunner and fielder so if you can’t hit then how exactly do you help this team?
Reds haven’t had a leader since Scott Rolen.
Cubs will run at will tonight,they are paying attention and are focused.Look at Ross and then Bell who would you want to lead your team.Right
To paraphrase William F Buckley, I’d rather the Reds were managed by one of RLN readers than David Bell. I guarantee a better outcome.
You’ve outdone yourself LDS. That may be the most ridiculous post I’ve seen on RLN in quite some time, and that’s saying something. 🙂
Great hustle there MVP
What else are you going to do?
Just a joke of an inning by 3 old players.Votto doesn’t run,Moose strikes out on 80 mph and Farmer is running.What on earth are we doing?Its laughable.Goodness please isn’t there anybody that can or will put a stop to this little league mess.
Basically a hit and run with Moose of all people at the plate. Lol
This may get ugly tonight. The manager needs to embarrass the whole team in the dugout after this half inning. A football coach would call timeout and pull the team together and rip them to shreds.
Manager is an embarrassment
If he does that he for sure is.
At least it wasn’t Happ.
Got up from my game of dominoes with wife and DD#1 after that shot. I just called Clete. I really don’t like Wisdom.
This team. I’m going Awol for a long while. They suck. Young guys struggling is to be expected, but they don’t even come out like they’re ready to play half the time. If they don’t care then why should we?
Have a nice holiday!
I’m with you Indy Red Man! I’ll check back in after Independence Day!
Well, to paraphrase Mark Moore: “I’m gonna have to clete on this one. Gotta go eat a good dinner and take a long walk…Goodnight everybody!”
I am out as well.
My 31-61 at all star break is looking better. When you are 30 games under 500 at ASB , there needs to be changes. Somehow I doubt it.
Oh man, I forgot how ugly those vests style unis were.
Now we know unequivocally who the better team is. Time for a change that will never come.
Graham’s ERA just went from 3.27 to 4.36 in 2 innings against a team almost as bad as the Reds.
It’s not that the Cubs have a better roster. It’s that they are better managed. Lackluster performance falls to a manager that won’t KA&TN. No excuse for performing like this.
Haha, sure is quiet in here. Am I in this thread by myself? If so, it’s quite cozy.
No. Soon but not yet. My opening comment was dead on. I just had the teams reversed.
eh, I’m happy just to have baseball on since I’m at home rn. I keep laughing when I look at the score and then the inning.
It wouldn’t be so bad if just anyone in the organization or on the roster would stand up and say “we’re playing like little leaguers” and there’s going to be some changes immediately. Won’t happen. Just more Bell’isms in the post game and more of the same tomorrow.
You actually watch the postgames?
Excerpts the next day sometimes. They are excruciating.
hm, maybe look for other videos then.
I wonder why Elly De La Cruz is still in Dayton. I just watched him hit a home run. His stats are off the chart. Why not move him up? They must have a reason.
Since he didnt get promoted I kind of figured they’re just going to leave him there this season. He’s actually very young for that level as it is. Maybe late season?
They’d like to see some plate discipline because it’s only going to get worse as he moves up.
He’s the only chance this franchise has at an all star, not even superstar, just all star.
Him and possibly Stephenson if he stays healthy and at catcher.
Perhaps Cruz is too good for this Red’s team?
lol, hilarious play, go shift. Youd think guys have played enough shifts to know you need to know where guys are.
I guess they need to bad the shift because of player safety.
July 1st tomorrow. Only have to watch Moustakas for another Year and half.
Don’t be so sure.
Cubs, Brewers and Cards could work a deal wherein they jointly pick up Moose’s salary and extend him with the condition that the Reds have to play him every day.
lol +1
If I’m the Reds I might actually do it, since thats what they are doing anyway. I bet a lot of teams would for their bad contracts.
Moose looks good, ha ha. Just pay him his money and get rid of him. He made fools of the Reds, huge contract, came in out of shape and never tried to get in shape. What a poor excuse for a professional athlete. I am sorry, but watching him play and knowing what he makes is very upsetting.
As bad as Moose has been, all the hitters below him in the lineup have actually been worse.
He is definitely the poster boy for bad contracts.
Look at the ERA’s of the Reds’ pitchers. Compare it to any competitive team. I do not see how they will be competitive before 2025. This is one of the worse Reds teams since I started watching them in the 1970’s.
Winning doesn’t just happen. You need a plan. When I see people talking about 2023 or 2024 I just laugh. The Reds have no plan to get better. They will continue to watch there payroll and sign a couple cheap free agents available at the end of Spring training and hope for the best.
There is no reason to believe this team will be better in 2023,2024,2025,2026, 20027 etc.
The Reds will be 23 games under .500 at the end of the night. They will likely be 35 games under .500 by the end of July. Yet, no one gets fired.
The only thing I am interested in right now is seeing what kind of return the Reds will get for Luis Castillo. Nothing else really interest me about the rest of the season.
After the trade deadline, I will focus on football. The Reds are making it really difficult for me to care about baseball these days.
Rather than analyze the game- analyze the roster.
Look at the box score
Which of these players other than India are on this roster in 2024? Whats the career trajectory of Pham Votto Farmer Moose? Why watch these 4? No hope
No future
Just old men on their last stand
I love Drury career year but hes a FA in 3 months and a one hit wonder
Not coming back
This is a bad baseball team and deserving of 100 losses
What a mess
BUT BUT BUT I AM BACK…. was at a dinner litterally the first thing I saw
and as I look, his second RBI of the night
Checked the comments here and yours made me go to Gameday and watch it. MAN! He gave that a ride!
yep
Votto’s first hit was a bit of a fluke. That one was NOT. I’d love to see him on a tear. India, Drury, Senzel, Votto, and the two soon to return – Stephenson and Naquin – could be the basis of a pretty good offense. Scrounging for reasons for optimism here, but Go Reds!
It seems Votto gets most of his hits when the Reds are down by 6-7 runs. When they need a hit in a close game he sputters. Maybe that is not the case but it sure seems that way.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
Yep, but like Suarez last year, once a week he gives a ball a long ride and fans start thinking “he’s back”. Wish he was but that’s not to be again.
McGarry went deep again tonight. He is hitting .328 with an ops of 1.017 at Chattanooga. What would it hurt to call him up for the second half? He can’t be any worse. At least give your fans a reason to watch.
New pet peeve…hearing Sadek refer to the batter as the “batter runner”. So annoying to me!
It is hard to believe that I am still watching this game. The Reds will get even worse after the trade deadline.
This may be a 100 loss season.
The owners are so gracious in giving us such a competitive team.
three hit night for the walking corpse
Moose 0-3 with 3 K’s
What are the Reds doing?
Votto is 30 th worst first baseman yet Reds best lefty bat?
I dont understand those who say Reds can win in 2023
Great Job by moose, walking corpse now actually seen running and scored
Schrock might not be our go-to position player pitcher
Bell’ism #4938, his supply is bottomless.
There have been plenty of jokes about pitchers throwing “batting practice” in a game.
This is the real deal.
So, we don’t have any one pitcher that can clean up one inning in an 6 run deficit game? So, let’s rub Schrock’s nose in the dirt so that the Cubbies get 5 more runs. What a disgrace. Maybe Reynolds refused to do it. Says a lot about David Bell and the example he is setting for this team…and well reflected in the play tonight.
Pham bam… what if we had actually had a pitcher in
Schrock says, “Hey the relief pitchers for the Reds always give up runs, let me pitch I could do no worse than them”