Luis Castillo shut down the Cubs for six innings at Wrigley Field on Tuesday evening. Castillo did not allow a run and struck out 11 batters. The Reds offense was lead by Jonathan India, who hit a three-run home run in the top of the sixth inning to put the Reds up 5-0. The Reds bullpen, as they often do, made things interesting, but they were able to hang for the victory. Cincinnati has now won three of their last four games.
|Chicago Cubs (28-46)||3||10||0|
|Cincinnati Reds (26-47)||5||12||1|
|W: Castillo (3-4) L: Thompson (7-3) S: Strickland (4)|
|FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread|
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Brandon Drury’s RBI double with 1 out in the 6th inning, giving the Reds a 1-0 lead. That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 17.8% (from 50.3% to 68.1%).
Luis Castillo was sensational on Tuesday evening. We are likely about to enter the final month of Castillo in a Reds uniform, and he gave a vintage performance. His final line: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K. (more on his pitch count below)
Jonathan India hit his second home run of the season. After not hitting his first home run until game #67 of the season, India has 2 bombs in his last 6 games. Hopefully this is the start of a summer full of long balls for the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year.
Brandon Drury just keeps on raking. He had two hits and walk, including a RBI double to put the Reds up 1-0. Drury now has an .867 OPS on the season.
Donovan Solano continues to make me incredible sad that he was injured the first 2+ months of the season. Solano had a pair of doubles to continues his strong start.
Nick Senzel reached base two more times tonight. Senzel is 9-16 (.563) with 2 walks over his last 5 games.
Aramis Garcia had a 3-hit day for the first time since 2018.
Art Warren and Hunter Strickland each pitched scoreless innings of relief. Strickland is now remarkably has 4/4 in save chances for the Reds this season.
Joel Kuhnel gave up 3 earned runs in the 7th inning to allow the Cubs to get back in the game after the Reds had a took a 5-0 lead in the top of the inning.
Not so random thoughts………….
David Bell elected to leave Luis Castillo in the game at the start of the 6th inning at 93 pitches. Castillo ran into some trouble, but worked his way out. He ended up with a career high 123 pitches. I’m sure this will be highly controversial, but I really don’t understand Luis Castillo setting a new career high in pitches a few weeks away from the Reds almost assuredly looking to trade him. I understand that pitch counts are an arbitrary number, but I also don’t understand with the stage the Reds are at that it was a good idea for Castillo to throw the most pitches of his big league career tonight (a career of now 133 starts). Like it or not, the Reds are placing a fairly large stake in their future on the return of Castillo in a few weeks. I would be doing absolutely everything possible to make sure that I’m doing all that I can to keep him healthy.
The most pitches by a Red since Johnny Cueto had 123 on 5/9/15.
— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) June 29, 2022
Reds at Cubs
Wednesday, 8:05 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Hunter Greene (5.66 ERA/4.11 xERA) vs Justin Steele (4.59 ERA/3.58 xERA)
I agree with you Nick on the pitch count.Scouts in the stands maybe had something to do with it but that’s too many.Bell could have just been watching the game. No worries I am sure he has a very good reason.Risky but well we are pretty healthy.
The 6th inning was huge for Castillo. I hear the talk about his pitch count, and it crossed my mind too. However, the book on Castillo’s weaknesses is that he gives up runs in the half innings after his offense scores, too often doesn’t clean up his messes and leaves his team short an inning in the process.
Tonight he took care of all three of those issues in a style that should enhance his value. For himself and the Reds, he needed to do what he did to make himself a true top drawer trade piece to bring back what folks are expecting.
I agree 100%. He choked against LA when given a 3-0 lead so they needed to give him a chance to close them out under pressure and he did it!
Side note….what would it take to sign Drury to an extension? Seems like that would be a feel good for the whole organization to get that done! They could pay him whatever it takes and it wouldn’t raise the payroll from this season.
I watched Castillo pitch the 6th. Yeah, he was done. He walked the bases loaded. l thought he was going to walk one in. What reason was there to even start the 6th ? It didn’t prove anything to me.
I was glad Warren escaped unscathed, and Bell stuck with his newly designated closer for the 9th. With these Reds you can’t have enough of a lead going into the 7th, 8th, and 9th…
Jim, I agree with you. It was extremely important to give Castillo the opportunity to close out the inning. Yeah, I was also aware of the pitch count but felt it was more important for him to show that he get out of a tough spot. Johnny Cueto was very adept about pitching out of trouble back in his day. Castillo became much more valuable tonight.
He had a shutout working, was sitting in the high 90’s with his fastball, and Bell was trying to win knowing he had little in the pen to bail him out. I don’t think one game with such a high pitch count will affect his trade value at all.
123 pitches is not too many. At most a few extra pitches will tend to lead to more fatigue later in the season, but there has not been any significant connection made between immediate injury and 100 vs 120 pitches. It just doesn’t actually change the risk much. So the need to showcase him to the scouts FAR outweighed the low risk that he might be fatigued in August or September, and even more so outweighed the miniscule and insignificant risk that he would be injured in those extra 20 pitches.
Absolutely correct Luke J. If Bell would start pushing all of his starters to that level, this team would win more games. For that matter, all managers should be doing this, unless their bullpen is top among the league.
So……What’s up with Votto?
Not really a hard hit ball tonight by Joey.
He’s batting .210, his OPS is .695 (or was, it might be a touch lower now).
He kind of caught it in the comments on the game thread tonight.
Should he still be batting clean-up, or even playing…at all?
Maybe some of those David Bell “specials” and sit on the bench for a few days?
Drury plays first and bats clean-up.
Solano plays third (until he gets traded)
Pham plays left. (until he gets traded)
Max Schrock is the DH until he shows he can’t hit.
And the pitch that killed Kuhnel tonight was his slider. I think just about every slider that was near or in the Strike Zone got tattood.
I agree it is doing neither the team nor Votto any good to keep running him out to the plate in the #4 slot day in and day out.
Start giving him at least 2 days off a week. Plan them ahead to utilize team off days and night games following day games to give him longer breaks. And drop him down in the order until he starts consistently performing better.
Well, he’s no longer a namesake thread. With so many IF options available now it’d make sense to do some lineup changes here and there.
Votto’s best numbers have been batting 3rd. He has no biz hitting 4th. Drury is crushing it and deserves to bat cleanup. I just don’t get Bell’s lineups. Solano should bat 2nd or 3rd. It’s so obvious to everyone except Bell. I’d go India, Senzel, Solano, Drury, Farmer, Pham then Votto.
When batting order has been analyzed, what has emerged–beyond its relatively insignificant role in determining a team’s success–is that having the best hitters batting at or near the top of the order is the best configuration.
Kuhnel is terrible although the one “double” was misplayed. Warren hung pitches over the plate too and got lucky. He was throwing 94 which is nothing when you’re all over the place and often behind in the count. Why not bring up Ben Lively asap (7 day IL now) and let Hoffman try high leverage. He’s been better then Kuhnel and Warren all year.
Thats my problem with Bell….he’s too slow to fix what ain’t working? Same old same old is fine when you’ve got a veteran team above .500, but thats not our situation. His timing was good with Senzel! He gave him some run at leadoff and he wasn’t hitting so he dropped him way down. He needs to do that with everyone whether its hitters or pitching. I’ve seen this movie though….Minor will make 15 more bad starts and where was Moose? He’s a fixture vs righties so I’m guessing he stumbled coming out of Golden Corral
Maybe MM injured his back carrying his food tray from the serving area to his table 😉
If you were in charge instead of the about to be 51 different players to appear in a game this year.
It would be 151.
Different suggestion every night. Have you saw Lively pitch this year?
We know Doug has. Maybe he can chime in. I’m sure there is a reason he is still in AAA. It’s not like he would have to be throwing the ball great to claim a spot.
Tells me he is not or he’d be up.
Lively has a career 4.80 era in mlb with over 100 innings. I doubt Kuhnel or Warren ever make 100 innings in the bigs, but I guarantee they won’t have a sub 5 era if they make it. Not in Gabp. And yes I keep the wheels turning for better or worse
Lively went on the IL with a flexor strain june 23
He wont be pitching in gabp for awhile if at all
Neither Lively nor Hoffman were available for Bell to use last night.
I thought that Kuhnel threw the ball fine last night.
Rivas slapped a ground ball hit the opposite way. Bote was hit by a pitch (admittedly, bad pitching). Morel hit an easily catchable fly ball on which Senzel and Almora pulled an Alphonse-and-Gaston. Ortega grounded out. Contreras hit a high chopper to short for an infield hit. Happ grounded to second, and Wisdom struck out.
It was really only one hit, the leadoff hit by Rivas that was no bullet. In all, he hit a guy, gave up 4 ground balls and a fly ball that would be caught 98+% of the time, and struck a guy out. Kuhnel also sacked up when he needed to, after the outfield fiasco.
The Cubs lucked into 3 runs. Kuhnel was fine.
Watched it today and you are absolutely correct. If a couple of plays were made, Kuhnel gets out of it without a run scored.
What a pity the Reds can’t hang on to a pitcher of Castillo’s ability.
He’s been one of the bright spots over the last years.
People talk and talk about ‘prospects’.
He was a ‘prospect’ they traded perhaps their top pitcher for at the time.
Now he’s trade bait in the hands of an inexperienced GM.
And a tight-fisted owner.
The cycle continues.
Luis, we hardly knew ye.
I would say the Reds front office leans more towards “dumb” then tight-fisted. They pay people alot of money to not perform.
As for Luis. He’s one of my fav Reds pitchers ever, but has too many games like LA where he walks/hits people and gets the other team back into the game when he’s given a decent lead. More often though they don’t score for him and bottom line is he’s under .500 as a Red. Why? Mostly because of their offense and bullpen. So if you can deal a pitcher with rising costs and pickup offense/bullpen with controlled costs then thats a win for our Reds!
Unfortunately thats a huge “IF”
Here is the Castillo conundrum. Last year the team lost 2/3 of the games he started (11-22). He got the decision in 2/3 of the starts and 2/3 of his decisions were losses (8-16). The bullpen got 1/3 of the decisions and lost 2/3 of the decisions charged to it (3-6).
Castillo’s average in game ERA for games the team lost was >6. For games the team won it was <2. To me, this says he had a lot more to do with the team losing many of those losses than the pen doing him wrong and costing him a win or hanging him with a loss (via inherited runners scoring) when he had pitched well.
Remember, Jim, that he got off to a terrible start last year. I’m too lazy and computer-challenged to look it up, but it seemed as though he’d never win another game. I never heard an explanation. It does seem that, aside from the huge factors of defense, hitting and bullpen, he gets himself in more trouble than a pitcher with his talent should.
I agree Indy.Reds have potential good starting pitching on the way up and Castillo has proven his worth just hope Reds do get value for value
@greenmtred Back in the day, I liked to try and compare the approaches of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.
From watching them pitch and listening to each talk about his craft and performances, I came to view Harang as an artist and Arroyo as a down and dirty street fighting competitor.
Castillo is Harang and from we’ve seen so far, Graham Ashcraft is Arroyo.
Furthermore, the hitters of the world should be shaking in terror at the thought of facing Hunter Greene in a year or 2 because he is showing signs of becoming an absolute hybrid of Harang and Arroyo in the same package.
Great observations, Jim. Ashcraft as Arroyo but with 99mph at his beck and call should scare the hitters, too.
Without any particular 3B prospect in near sight, it’d be wise to consider offering a contract extension to Drury. With almost half season on the fold his overall playing performance deserves it.
I agree. He isn’t hitting the ball this hard and this consistently by luck. He also as a financial matter needs some certainty. I could see where he might be interested now in a 2-year deal with an option for a 3rd year at a similar salary, under terms that would work for the Reds. His other option is to become a free agent, but that exposes him to the market risks of either getting hurt or not performing well from here on.
His OBP at home is .940, so he likes the ballpark, and he seems like a good fit overall.
I don’t think the Reds will trade him at the deadline, because most teams will be reluctant to offer a top prospect, in light of Drury’s short track record. The Reds know more about him than any other team, so they may value him now more than any other team.
Drury reminds me of Justin Turner, who had some prior success but exploded at age 29 in his first season with a new team.
Youve got India at 2b
No one mentions it but the real fight for 2023 money is at 3b
Farmer is going to get north of $5 mil in arbitration and he’s aging defensively as a SS. Hes potentially a $6 million dollar man and a non-tender
Reds dont spend that in arbitration if they arent the future
See Peraza, Jose ; Hamilton, Billy; barnhart, Tucker ; Garrett, Amir
Drury is 2 years younger and a better hitter and flexible but also about to be an AS. His price tag is skyrocketing though
Drury’s agent will take him to FA
Reds might as well trade him and engage again in the offseason. Teams not giving up a big haul for a utility guy with a career year and said utility guy going to FA to get a life altering contract can both be true
He could bring back a good AA reliever
I’m not sure if Castillo pitched so many pitches because:
1) It’s one of his last starts, let’s get as much as we can from him
2) let’s audition him a little more
3) a 5 run lead is not safe over 4 inning with this bullpen
Regardless, it was good to see them keep him in for the entire 6th inning, because the bullpen is quite adept at letting runners score.
All of the above!
Time for Senzel to start slugging. He has the body. Jonathan India has two home runs- twice as many as Senzel.
That double off the wall wasn’t slugged enough for you?
*single (I forgot it should have been a double standing up, but the runner ahead of him made a bonehead move).
Agree, both Solano and Drury should be signed.
Agree on Drury, as stated above.
I need to see more on Solano, but he has a Nelson Cruz type of feel to him, where he can keep hitting as he ages. He is 34, but extending him another year with an option, and hoping to get 350 PA/year from him is not unreasonable.
Drury is one of those guys who is more valuable for us than he would be to another team. If we traded him at the deadline, we’d get an underwhelming return.
Sign him to a 2-3 year low-cost deal and plant him at 3B. He’s certainly an upgrade from Suarez at (presumably) a much cheaper price.
I think that is probably true. But, while Drury did have some good years with Arizona, they cut him loose rather than sign him to a big contract. Kind of makes you say…hmmm.
He is a good ML Player, but he may also be having a “career year” with the Reds, playing in GABP rather than the bigger park that Arizona plays in, and he was motivated to have a good year to stay in the Bigs. This year may be the best year Drury ever has in his career, in other words. He might be this year’s Scooter Gennett.
I understand the “playing in GABP” argument, but that’s what he’d have a chance to do if we signed him to an extension. If he’s made for this ballpark, keep him here.
And btw, Scooter had TWO really good years with the Reds.
Really would like to see the reds build around:
The shame is we have to give up some of our young core to acquire prospects who may or may not work out.
Castillo is a legit #2 capable of starting and putting his team in a position to win post season games with cost control and an additional season in 2023.
His value is tremendous
Berrios last year got the Twins a top15 prospect and a top 75 prospect. Castillo is better. Berrios was younger
Thats the ask. Pretty simple
My concern is many teams dont have that elite prospect capital and are excluded as partners.
Tapped out with the same score as we saw at the end. Game was just running too late for me. Happy with the end result.
Always love it when we beat the Stupid Cubs.
Almora could’ve had that ball in the gap easily but he deferred thinking Senzel would call him off because THAT’S WHAT CENTER FIELDERS DO. Last week Senzel called AA off late and almost caused a collision….AA’s facial reaction said it all. Senzel simply doesn’t have the instincts for CF. Corner outfield is the only sensible place for Nick, yet the Reds are hellbent on shoehorning him into CF to save face.
Sultan I think you maybe a bit off on your assessment of Senzel’s fielding. He has very good range and a nice arm. I think some of the things your seeing will be corrected with more time on the field and some more familiarity with the players in right and left field. He runs down a lot of balls out there.
Yes, Almora catches that ball easily as the RF if he trusts his CF to give way and stay clear. He had already slowed to a trot because he saw the Senzel freight train barreling down the warning track right at him.
Senzel also had the same sort of situation more than once with the “other AA”, Aquino. However Aquino was enough taller, he just went on about his business and made a couple of nice catches despite Senzel.
Part of the reason Senzel is in CF rather than a corner is likely because he seems to have lost his power at the plate. If he is in RF there’s no way they justify keeping him there when Naquin returns for his trade deadline showcasing.
Kuhnel has caught a lot of flak today, but that misplay was key to his “bad” inning. Senzel has now logged just over 1 full season defensively in CF. Remember, he was an infielder at college and in the minors. He’s essentially been asked to learn the position in the majors. I think the Reds play him there exclusively because they understand he’s still learning the nuances of playing OF and that moving him to a corner would only add to the challenge. Senzel’s success in the majors will hinge on his bat which has begun to show some life. The Reds need to keep playing him daily and give him every opportunity to grow into potential this year. It will be a huge miss for the organization if he can’t become a reliable starter for the Reds.
I understand the empathy for the player. The question we should be shouting is why this organization always has a project of this sort going on with one of its top prospects at MLB i.e. Barrero and Senzel almost simultaneously last year. And why was Hunter Greene up from the get go this year at age 22 and 1 full season of professional experience versus at AAA honing his change up and/ or adding a 2-seam fastball?
Correct. Kuhnel gave up 4 groundballs, 1 flyball (the Senzel-Almora play), and hit 1 guy and struck out another. One of the grounders went into left field; the other was a high chopper to Farmer. He pitched fine, but got unlucky.
@Jim, I tend to agree. While a lot of Senzel’s struggle relate to his health issues, they asked a lot of him to master a new position while breaking in.
Barrero is another matter. His first time in the majors came during COVID and represented a promotion from High-A. How often do players jump from High-A to the majors successfully? I think we got a predictable outcome. Last year, I’m really not sure why the Reds didn’t promote him–he was hitting the cover off the ball. Missed opportunity. This year, he’s in AAA recovering from a hamate injury–those usually take a while. So, while I won’t criticize him being in AAA this year, we’ve blown the 2020 and 2021 seasons with him.
As I’ve said many times before, the Reds struggle to set and follow a coherent strategy. While they enter each year at a structural disadvantage, it’s hard to argue this is a well-led franchise.
This is the clearest post on the Senzel issue that I’ve read.
Senzel in CF, Barrero in CF? Suarez at SS?
All these misplacements come about because of the Reds seemingly ham handed drafting and signing.
Reds sign Suarez to a good multi year contract, and draft another 3rd baseman in India.
Reds sign not one, but two international shortstops for big bonus money.
Reds locate a journeyman utility player at short and then draft another shortstop (McLain) while their top hitting prospect (De La Cruz) is a shortstop.
Meanwhile, they sign Moose to an expensive contract to play 3rd setting the merry go round in motion.
Senzel has no business in CF. He is a toro bravo at best. A good athlete who has accepted the challenge.
But it’s another sign that the Reds don’t really know how to manage their player development in a coherent manner.
Hopefully Senzel quits diving after uncatchable balls, stay wary of the wall and hopefully other outfielders.
A muffed play now and then is okay.
An injuy inducing collision is another thing altogether.
Let alone a ripped up shoulder diving after some ball.
I’d like to see Senzel’s highlight reel come from the plate, not the outfield.
WHAT IF the Reds simply choose to run it back next year with nearly the same roster? Would it make the playoffs? I kinda think yes. I mean the rotation would be very good, the bullpen would have Sims and Antone back to pair with Diaz. Sure, you have some offensive holes to fill, but keeping Drury and Pham as placeholders for McClain and DeLaCruz (CF, Senzel to RF) makes sense.
2023 would be a one year stopgap type roster to give the younger prospects a bit more seasoning before we move forward with the new core of youngsters.
I have know issue running it back but I would want them to sign Mahle and Castillo to extensions. With Votto and Moose accounting for almost 50 mil coming off the books in 2023 it should be very doable. With whatever is left full some remaining holes and role the dice. I really don’t think contending next year with them still on the books is a possibility.
I think the playoffs in 2023 with this crew are a stretch.
The infield defense is an absolute mess. Something would have to be done about that. Farmer is losing it defensively at SS before our eyes even as he is making a strong case that there should be an everyday spot for him somewhere. Maybe Farmer is the 1B versus LH pitching and super subs on other days in 2023? Or maybe they just sell high on him at the 2022 deadline?
They also need to get some offense out of the 2nd catcher.
Pham’s option is a mutual option with a $1.5m buyout against a $6m salary. Unless he falls off the end of the world or ends up the commissioner’s (or the real) police blotter, he’s taking the buyout and signing with whoever puts the most guaranteed money on the table for 2023.
Almora and Naquin would both be final year arb salaries.
Drury would have to be signed as an FA.
Seems to me there are too many moving pieces at potentially above value prices to fit the same crew together for 2023 even if a person wanted to.
Here’s a thought: Our good friend Nick Kirby pointed out in recent days that India has a -12 defensive runs saved (I think that’s the correct term) for his career at second base. He played third base in college at Florida. How about moving India to third, Farmer (who is showing that he can hit on a consistent basis) to second, and Barrero at short? I’d then try to sign Drury to a one- or two-year extension and make him the primary first baseman, but Drury is going to be able to cash in elsewhere after this season, most likely. (If he does, move Stephenson to first.) 😉 Garcia can definitely do the job defensively at catcher.
You can’t build a bullpen that counts on either Sims or Antone at this point, with their injury histories. If either or both comes through, that’s just a nice surprise. The bullpen has to be completely redone, and by this time next year I believe you’re going to see some of the pitchers who are now starting in the Reds minor league system being used as relievers.
Maybe also Mike Minor? They can’t possibly keep him in the rotation when Lodolo returns.
Amen Tom. I was getting long and running out of mind and finger breath 😉
Tom, I am on the bus for Minor in the bullpen as soon as Lodolo is back. He was super effective in the pen for the Royals in the past and seems to get through a lineup once alright. He won’t be a world beater in the pen, but could give us a reliable left hander and a veteran in the pen.
He’s definitely going to be gone after this season. No reason to keep giving him starts if you have five healthy, capable starting pitchers.
Castillo, Greene, Lodolo, Mahle, Ashcraft
Closer FA, Diaz, Antone, Sims, Santillan, Moreta, Warren, Hoffman
1B Votto, 2B Farmer, 3B India, SS Barrero, DH Schrock, C Stephenson
LF Drury, CF Senzel, RF Almora
Catcher FA, U Solano, U Santana, OF (Fraley/Friedl)
That would be a competitive squad, but I’m not sure if it would be the smart thing for the organization. The return for Castillo could be huge, Mahle not as much, but still good. Mahle hurt his brand with his start this year, but he has turned it around. I say explore trade returns, but don’t give them away for only a slightly better return than the Comp pick we would get if we hung onto them for 23.
Somehow I forgot Pham.
LF Drury, CF Senzel, RF Pham bench OF Almora
That would be even better, although this squad would be lacking in LH bats, but I’d be ok with that.
That basically is the team which is currently 26-47 and in last place.
Cessa-can’t keep the Ball in the park
SanMartin- has been terrible
Solomon- young needs more innings
Moreta- young needs more innings
These are the guys left in the bullpen last night. Personally I would have went with Kuhnel, Warren and Strickland. This bullpen is bad.
As for Castillo throwing a 123 pitches.. come on people. You all act like the guys arm was going to fall off. Castillo would throw 105-112 anyways. What’s another 10. You all scream at Bell when he pulls him at 95-100 and yell at him when he leaves him in for 20 more pitches. 123 and still throwing gas is better than anybody in that bullpen.
i would like TS to be the everyday first baseman for the rest of the year when he returns. i would like to see Bell use Votto like Pete Rose used Davey Concepcion at the end of his career. spot starts and coming off the bench.
I would sign Drury to a 2 year extension and Solano for another year to DH. Nobody in the minors is ready for 3rd or better than Drury right now. I would keep Farmer and platoon him with Barrero and as a utility guy. He can play first when Votto sits against Lefties. Drury and Farmer arent going to bring a good prospect. They would be worth more to the team than a low prospect. Votto. The old Joey isn’t coming to the park anymore. He needs to sit against lefties and bat lower in the lineup. For all those who say he has no protection behind him are kidding yourselves. He does not bring fear to the eyes of the picture anymore. He will have his moments but he is a liability now and that’s hard to say or watch. Willie Mays his last 2 years with Mets had 195 and 209 at bats. If the Say Hey Kid can sit , then so can Joey. Love Votto but it’s time.
Well said about Joey V. By any measure he has already earned every cent due him from the contract. More progressive (and financially capable) ownership would find a way to pay him while giving him a hero’s send off without making him and us go through the remaining season and a half.
Your assuming he doesn’t want to play the remaining year and a half
He needs to be treated right.Joey can’t be allowed to just fall of the cliff even if he wants to.Work him into the DH spot against certain guys and lets see.He has earned his money regardless of what anybody may think.It would be just awful to see him try so hard and fail so miserably.
I agree on Drury and Solano. Those guys can hit. They would be excellent backups on a good team, and decent starters for a team that has no minor league position players ready to make the step into roles as major league starters. It does not make sense to me to trade any of the starting players on this team for a fringe prospect. A guy I really want to see more of is Schrock. I think if you start next season with him and Solano platooning at DH, you could do a whole lot worse than that.
A plus for the offense to go with good starting pitching and hopefully a strengthened bullpen.
Don’t sleep on outfielder Stu Fairchild. He has hit 4HR and has a .950+ OPS at AAA in 11 games since returning to the Reds org. He was nothing but jerked around by Arizona and a couple of other orgs after he was involved in the trade that brought Archie Bradley to the Reds.
His composite total career AAA line for 314 PAs in 2021 and 2022, OBP/SLG/OPS. is .373/.544/.917. I don’t have an OPS+ for those figures, but the similar wRC+ metric is 126. His K rate was 24.2% and BB rate 10.5%.
Fairchild has played all 3 OF spots but projects best as a corner man. A sane organization in the Reds situation leave him at AAA through the All Star break then get him up to MLB (and most importantly) give him regular playing time, at least 5 days a week, to see if he is the real deal or another 4A flash.
It would be great if he could become an effective starter and hitter in the bigs. Right now, I’m looking at the entire Louisville roster through T.J.-Friedl colored glasses — a bunch of Class AAAA players. I hope I’m wrong.
What is the big to do around here with Schrock? He appears to me to be the definition of Utilityman/LH bench bat to me. I don’t see anything about his AA .801 OPS, AAA .693 OPS, MLB .715 OPS to suggest he’d be starter material. He’s basically a nice guy to have around when someone goes down for a bit at 2B/3B/LF/RF. His ceiling is basically Jeff Treadway.
Fairchild’s 2021 standalone AAA OPS in the Arizona org was .945 (188PAs), with virtually the same OBP/SLG ratios as with the Reds org in 2022.
He cratered at AAA this spring for Arizona but came back to post an OPS>1 at AAA for Seatle before his short lived tenure in Frisco.
At the MLB level, he has all of 28PAs (most of them in 2021 for Arizona). That’s hardly enough of a sample to even call a small sample size.
Despite being a 2nd round pick, Fairchild was actually picked 11 picks earlier in his draft (38th overall in 2017) than Jesse Winker was picked in his draft as technically a first round (compensation sandwich) pick (49th overall in 2012).
This is Fairchild’s age 26 season. To me with his AAA numbers it makes no sense why he can’t get a real look at MLB.
I find Schrock interesting.
Career MilB stats .299/.352/.408/.760
GABP against righties might profile well as a platoon DH.
He profiles as a lefty DH bat on a team who has no lefty bats. In a lost season, this should be a good time to see how he does. Instead , Moose is the DH on the depth chart.
HE might not be any good. We know Moose isnt.
Schrock’s 5-5 with a HR against Marcus Stroman opened some eyes I think to his potential.
i wonder how much Senzel would bring back in a trade? this is the best he has played since his first year. he may be at peak trade value now
If you think he has turned the corner why trade him?
Odd question, Jim, Tom, TR, etc. but how do you get a picture added to your profile?
Try the #1 option in this article: https://wpeverest.com/blog/how-to-add-profile-picture-to-wordpress-user/#:~:text=Simply%20log%20in%20to%20your,comments%20on%20the%20comment%20section.
That’s what I did.
It was a bit difficult for me to get the picture added, and I didn’t write down what finally worked. I would say go to the top heading of this Blog and hit ‘Site Info.’ and go from there. Good luck.
Reds need to continue to sort and sort and sort.So far by default I guess we have found out about Drury and so far whats not to like.Solano could always hit and now lets see about Schrock.No problem going in to 2023 with all 3 playing a lot as some have said but there is much more to do.Got to find out about Barrero,continue to play Senzel as well.We know about Moose,Joey ,Farmer as they battle father time.Pham is gone,Naquin probably will go as well.Rest of year is critical so that 2023 becomes clearer and sets up 2024 and beyond.Not concerned about starters and the pen is a whole other issue.That will require spending some money in 2023 unless some of the starters wind up in the pen which I have always thought was a good thing.Usually pen guys have 2 pitches but when they have 3 well they are so so much better.
Good outing for Lodolo. 4 2/3 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 78 P
Lodolo walked his last batter and run scored on a double against Pidich.
Assuming there is no trade of Castillo or Mahle in the next week, he should replace Minor in the rotation. So, only one more Minor start on Friday to get through…. hopefully….
I think they might go at least temporarily with a 6 man rotation until they see who is and who is not around a month and 3 days from now. This could explain why Bell was in no hurry to pull Castillo last night, knowing he might be pushed back an additional day or 2.
I really hope we don’t go to a 6 man rotation. With the limit of 13 pitchers on the roster, it makes an already crappy bullpen shorthanded. I would guess a trade happens, and this problem takes care of itself.
Lots of folks on here lauding Solano. I like him too, but he’s 34 and not cheap. Think about him as good trade bait at the deadline, not part of our future.
How about extending Drury for 3 and Solano for 2? I’d like to see more of Solano to see if he atleast has some Gabp power, but he looks good! I’d deal Pham and reluctantly deal Castillo too.
Alot of talk about the bullpen lastnight. Etc etc.. question who would you go too? Sims, Satallin, Diaz and Hoffman on injured list. Who would you of put in, not defending bell but what is he supposed to do? Castillo pitched good baseball, and taken out after 6.
Pen is a big issue of course but it won’ be fixed this year.Best hope is guys come back and we continue to see Diaz and Tony in action.Sort is still going on and should continue.DH allows teams to keep an older player around cause he can hit.Reds for next year must decide who that is going to be
Saw the line up tonight, one question. Why is Votto in the line up against a lefty? He isn’t hitting right handed pitching, let alone a lefty. Joey is an all time great but the reality is, he isn’t what he once was. There are so many better ways to handle his decline than this and that is on Bell. There is no way he should be batting clean up against a lefty.
I agree Mark but the Reds or Bell are just not going to address it any time soon.You are correct and it hurts to see this happen to Joey and of course it hurts the team when he doesn’t perform.Lets hope he does good but its just not there any more as you said especially against a lefty.The numbers don’t lie.
Line ups are out, The Cubs are starting a lefty.so it’s not a Suprise that Votto is the only lefty in the lineup. Like most of you, I wish Votto was hitting eighth or ninth in the lineup, instead of fourth,
Hope Hunter Greene has a solid outing tonight. Maybe 7 innings or so and his location is solid. Reds future is bright on the pitching front. I think Castillo could be the ace of this staff for a few more years.