The Reds (18-35) hope to end a 3 game losing streak and resume their quest for respectability in the start of a 4 game series tonight with the Arizona. The Diamondbacks (26-29) are surprisingly hanging around the edges of the Wild Card chase. However they arrive in Cincinnati on a 2 game losing streak, winners of only 3 of their last 10 games. For what it is worth, or not, the Diamondbacks are playing only marginally better than the Reds versus teams with a .500 or better record (.333 vs .290).
SP: Hunter Greene
|1. Daulton Varsho (DH)
2. Josh Rojas (3B)
3. Ketel Marte (2B)
4. Christian Walker (1B)
5. David Peralta (LF)
6. Jake McCarthy (RF)
7. Alek Thomas (CF)
8. Geraldo Perdomo (SS)
9. Jose Herrera (C)
|1. Nick Senzel (DH)
2. Brandon Drury (3B)
3. Tommy Pham (LF)
4. Joey Votto (1B)
5. Tyler Stephenson (C)
6. Kyle Farmer (SS)
7. Albert Almora Jr. (CF)
8. Alejo Lopez (2B)
9. Aristides Aquino (RF)
Reds rookie righthander Hunter Greene is scheduled square off against veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner of the Diamondbacks.
|Links: Hunter Greene’s Stats | Madison Bumgarner’s Stats
The narrative about Hunter Greene says he is perhaps a generational talent given his ~100MPH fastball and put away slider. Nevertheless the 22 year old phenom has struggled at times to close out batters. Contact with his pitches when made has often been very solid. He has also walked a few too many batters. Thus the disquieting WHIP, Slugging and OBP numbers for him in our tables.
However, the most important information in our tables is that Greene has essentially been a 2 pitch pitcher; and, that simply doesn’t fly for a starter in MLB. The task ahead for him is to refine and use his change up effectively. He would also be well served to add a 2 seam fastball to his repertoire.
The good news is that Greene seems to be a very self aware hard worker who is determined to succeed at realizing his potential. There has been a lot of back and forth as to whether Greene should have started to season at AAA to finish the work still ahead. The decision taken, right or wrong, is in the rearview mirror now. Our job is to take a step back and give the kid a chance to show what he is made of.
Perhaps a bit of surprise it is the RH hitters have really hurt Greene more than LH hitters, especially with the long ball.
Madison Bumgarner is at the opposite end of the career arc from Hunter Greene. He is just shy of 40 career bWAR, with two top 5 seasons in Cy Young voting and two other seasons in the CYA top 10. He has also won an NLCS and World Series MVP award.
After a couple of seasons where Bumgarner looked to be on the brink retirement, he has to date put together a very solid 2022. Looking over his career pitch usage and velocity stats, the amazing thing is he hasn’t really changed that much who he is as a pitcher, He isn’t quite as quick as he once was; but then, he was never a true power pitcher. His K rate is down significantly from his glory years with the Giants; but, he still strikes out 2 for every batter walked. Probably more importantly, his BB rate is in the same range it was in his prime years. He is pitching to contact and getting people out.
Art Warren threw 21 pitches Sunday. Jared Solomon threw 13. Warren is probably limited or unavailable today. Alexis Diaz topped 30 pitches on Saturday. He may be questionable.
Keep in mind that the Reds are in the 6th game of a run of 16 games between off days. Teams are still permitted to carry 14 pitchers; however the minimum time for an optioned pitcher to remain in the minors (except as an injury replacement) is now 15 days instead 10 days. This could impact how the bullpen is used.
Sean Poppen and Kyle Nelson worked Sunday throwing 22 and 17 pitches respectively. They appear to be the only players who may be limited today.
News and Notes
Mike Moustakis has been put on the IL. TJ Friedl has been recalled to fill the roster spot. Here is our Redleg Nation in depth report.
Now for some really exciting news! Jonathan India will start his rehab assignment Tuesday with AAA Louisville. Donovan Solano will also start his rehab tomorrow with Louisville.
Per a C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic’s tweet, the Reds hope to have India ready for the home series coming up with the Brewers on June 17.
Thought Of The Day
On a glorious spring weekend in Cincinnati, the Reds combined announced attendance for Saturday and Sunday came up 492 sold seats short of 40,000. I found myself wondering how many of the fannies not in empty seats at GABP had taken the implicit (Phil) Castellini challenge to find something better to do.
When and Where
- Game time: 6:40pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 76°, Scattered T-Storms, 50% chance of rai
Data and stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fangraphs and Baseball Press
Solano is another 30+yo, 34 I believe, the excitement builds
What the 26 man and 40 man rosters are going to look like a month from now barring further injuries is anyone’s guess. And it is probably even a bigger guess how they get there, i.e. via trades, DFAs or options.
Kind of scary to think about. 🙂
Barrero activated and optioned to Louisville
Word that this was likely leaked over the weekend. Barrero needs (at least) a full spring training experience coming off the hamate injury/ surgery. He came out of the chute strongly at the start of his rehab but has slumped badly over the last week or so.
I’m sure he is not happy about going on the option rate salary (minimum $114K vs active MLB min $700K) and losing service time but the move is almost certainly going to be best for him personally in the long run too.
It’s not like Bell would play him anyways.
agreed, but also explains why they maxed out his Rehab start
How many ABs constitute a “full spring training”? Barrero will top 50 ABs this evening.
By the time everyone gets back , this team will be to far out to care. The 3 games lost to the Nats was pretty much the ending. I thought they could win a few games in this stretch and get back towards 500. My bandwagon is basically parked and mothballed for the season.
I admit I thought they could get back to playoff talk with everyone coming back. This past weekend though has caused me to pause that thought process. I want to see improvement from the core players..
Excellent write up Jim!!
Roster will look different two weeks from now. I do think Reynolds stays.. maybe release Moose and Lopez will be optioned back.
Kevin , I agree when they get a couple more guys back. It’s time to cut ties with Moose. Wither they will or not is another question.
I agree with Kevin … excellent job teeing up this ballgame, Jim. Thank you!
Wonder what the odds are they will start and complete this game. Just checked The Weather Channel for Cincy and it looks rather wet with some electrical activity in the air.
Still storming off and on here. I am 3 hours north of Cincy. In north west Ohio.
FWIW, I am in the NNE “corner” of the Dayton metro area about 55-60 miles north and bit east of GABP. Between 4:30-5:30 it got extremely dark here with some wind and rumbling thunder. Then starting about 5:45 a steady rain fell for 30 minutes or so. Now it is still gray but much brighter with some drizzle but no electrical activity I can see or hear from indoors.
Video feed shows tarp on and rain falling. That’s at least a 45-minute delay to get the field ready. Likely takes it into the next window for more significant rainfall.
I’m thinking tonight’s game won’t happen. Time to go for that post-dinner walk my doctor has recommended. Catch you all in a bit.
Reds Spanish language twitter just tweeted first pitch at 6:50!
Don’t ask me why but the last several days the Spanish twitter has been antes ingles para mi! 😉
TV Crew indicated that there will be only a 10-minute delay. If the game goes, I need Greene to go nuts on Strikeouts. Pham, Votto and Senzel my picks for today. WOuld like to see them get the game in
Hopefully Greene doesn’t have an issue gripping the baseball if it’s still raining when the game starts.
Beautiful Strike em out throw em out DP
Varsho bunts and beats the shift. Imagine that. I’ll never understand why more guys don’t do that
I will be glad when shift is gone. In my opinion it has made the game less interesting.
Question to all:
Do you see Hunter Greene as the Reds future closer?
No he needs to be in the starting rotation with Lodolo and Ashcraft.
Yes, hopefully they learned their lesson with Chapman.
Please no! We wasted two talented pitchers by letting them fall in love with the closer role. IMO they both became headcases and there was no turning back.
No no no. He’s a starter, although he probably needs a third pitch, a split finger or a change up.
Wow not a strike thrown according to game day strike zone. In Senzel ab
I don’t know if Senzel is trying to mirror Stephenson’s patience at the plate, but he’s taking too many called strike threes. If it’s close with 2 strikes you have to swing.
Drury oppo shot
cleared 2.5 HRE 1st inning third day in a Row
Man, “watching on Gameday”, I look away after the 7th pitch and come back to a HR. I promise to keep looking away …
You go, Brandon!
Joey Half way there, Lets go Ty Steve get him in
Nice line-hugging double by Joey
I think everybodys favorite umpire is in this crew. Hernandez. Can’t wait until he calla a game.
Angel is at second
Oh brother … at least you don’t have Angel and Wendelstedt on the same crew.
Mad Bum is battling … I like that
Only 1 run seems like a tough break, but running his count to 31 pitches is definitely a bonus. He didn’t look sharp for most of the batters.
Solid inning by Greene. Let’s back him up with some runs, please.
Will not argue with productive outs Nice at bat Aquino
Senzel clears with a hit and RBI, halfway to money. Lets go Reds
I know he hasn’t shown much pop as he did in his rookie year but this kid has tools and the Reds just need to let him play.
Got to love a tomahawk line drive single.
I believe you mean a Guardian line drive single …
No, but I did remember more than a few I hit like that in church softball leagues.
I was a member of two very good softball teams in two different leagues. Unfortunately, I think it was in spite of my play. I hit the cooler harder than the opposing pitchers.
Good start from the offense … Mum’s the word beyond that.
Jeopardy is over in my area. Time to listen to the audio along with the video feed.
Lopez double at 105.1 mph
Senzel RBI 96 mph.
Tack on a run and run up the pitch count. I’ll take that pretty much every inning.
Back to you, Hunter Greene …
Drury and Pham battled hard just came up empty.Good to see Senzel swipe 2nd base.Both India and Barrero have speed as well
Senzel 6 game hitting streak hitting .304 in June with obp of .333
Defense is solid and good speed.
Just leave the kid alone and let him play
Hunter Greene looks like he is pitching tonight instead of throwing.
India in Mid May of last year after 84 PA had a slash line of .208/.304/.312/.616
People said a bust
People said should have traded him in the minors.
People said send him to AAA.
Small sample sizes are just that. You need hundreds of at bats(really 1500) to draw conclusions and players need to play 24-25 days a month to get in rhythm and get regular reps. There no reason to play an every day 4 on this team. Drury leads the team in HR and ties with TS in fWAR. Hes controlled in 2023 and makes under a mil. There’s your RH cheap utility player. Farmer might be a trade deadline salary dump at $3.4 mil and arbitration eligible next year at ~5 mil?
Yet, Drury is not a SS. Still need a SS, both starting and backup.
Reynolds’s can back up SS.
Indeed. I was surprised that Matt Reynolds is not Arb eligible until 2024 (!!!). He’s looked like he belongs to date this year.
IMO, Farmer should be traded, for both his benefit and the club’s.
He probably has one shot at getting a decent contract, and it will never happen here. Put Farmer on a competitive club and let him go for it.
The club simply needs to clear the way for Barrero, without him having to look over his back and the likelihood of too much tinkering with his playing time. If Barrero flops (he isn’t) then move on to the next middle infield prospect. Reynolds is a solid backup.
I’ve been a fan of Farmer, but I’m just as big a fan of playing Barrero every day at short. The hamate injury delayed Winker’s development. Hopeful that Jose can move past it and start contributing in Cincy.
Need to play the youngsters. Never gave it much thought, but a trade of Farmer (as much as he’ll be missed in the clubhouse) makes more sense than a move to 3B.
I am increasingly of the opinion that Farmer has tremendous value to a playoff team as a really good RH hitter against lefties and a Swiss Army knife on defense who can play SS/3b/2B against lefties or fill in for an everyday starter in September that tweaks something and needs to rest a player for a week or hits the DL and needs a fill in every day for 3 weeks.
I agree earmbrister.
Reds and some of us are quick to say bust or star but Old school is right you just have to let guys play.After the 1500 or so at bats or IMO 30 to 40 starts in the big leagues a story starts to develop and then you can make better decisions as to who can or who can’t.Throw in that players start peaking at 30 then you have another group of players with enough data to tell you more.No need to even not consider playing the payers that don’t have a story on this team.Its a losing team period and it will remain if younger players get older without giving them a shot while older players just get older.Again look at the Cubs and Bucs.The only reason we won’t have 3 teams with 95 losses in the Central or more is that we play each other.
1500 ABs is what, about 3 seasons?
A good 4 innings from Greene. Looks very much under control and mixing things up. Keeping the D-Backs guessing.
Let’s add on and let Hunter pitch one more inning. Then the skies can open up and pour.
A productive out, bloop double…. Aquino is doing it right tonight
Makes up a little for all of those hard hit balls that were outs.
Aquino’s walk-up music in that mostly empty stadium was haunting.
Nice hustle by AA … but it looks like he’ll head back to the bench anyway.
It’s an XBH Lallapalooza
In this case, not
If I was a betting man (and I’m not), I’d bet the Reds are done scoring until at least the 8th inning. That’s been their pattern here lately. Score early, and then score late with nothing in between.
Greene hits the over. Just waiting on Pham and Votto now
Yeah the Reds have had chances then as you say they disappear in the middle innings.Need 2 or 3 more to get some breathing room.Bloops and GABP first row homers are common.
MadBum more than a bit grumpy today.
Drury went out on a 3-1 pitch and Pham never took the bat off his shoulder and was called out.Reds hitters asleep again.r
Cowboy and Thrall are saying the tarp crew appears poised and ready to act at the end of this inning. I’m thinking any delay could be significant.
Solid job by Greene
Get him thru 6 and get Hoffman up as the radar looks bad and I doubt this game goes 9 innings. Don’t Need Greene laboring out there in the slop.
Great Job Farmer. Now just waiting on Pham
The video feed lagged but the WLW audio did not. I’m hearing things before I see them.
For once we take advantage of opportunities in a middle inning. Let it pour now …
2 out rally. 2 runs so far. Glad to be wrong.
Farmer with a good at bat right there.Big and I mean big two out hit to plate 2 big runs.
He’s just a professional. Lotta respect for him.
I don’t think Greene needs to go down to AAA. 🙂
Outstanding job by Greene. The kid bounces back from adversity. Kudos to him.
Was reading through the comments earlier and was stunned to see some commenting that HG should be used in bull pen.
He has a excellent game plan tonight. He is pitching not just throwing. He has hit 100 but he has changed speeds and thrown his slider early in the count. Looks very comfortable tonight. If rain holds out he will go 7 tonight.
Yeah, I held my tongue on the BP comment. I think the idea was quickly shot down by the masses. TOR pitchers are so much more valuable than late inning relievers. Not even close. And Greene is not even 23, despite the time lost to TJ.
Post Aroldis Chapman Reaction
Yep, I was shouting from the CT rooftops to keep Aroldis in the rotation, but my voice doesn’t carry …
Shame his stay in Cincy ended the way it did.
I made the comment I curious what others thought.
I made the comment about future closer. Not being moved to bullpen. I was curious as to what other people thought. Just having some sports blog conversations.
As I am a big Greene fan.
Thought the wheels were starting to come off for Greene on that first batter in the 6th. Got the K on the high heat and then worked quickly for the final 2 outs.
He just looks under control, no matter the results. This is the start of a long love affair for Reds fans.
Stephenson getting back to normal after a rough stretch, Farmer staying red hot and Greene having a signature performance. Really good rebound from the dreadful game last night.
While Senzel isn’t killing it right now I hope he can stay healthy. He is playing well in the field, being patient at the plate, showing some speed on the bases. I think the arrow is pointing up for him if he can stay healthy
That’s the easiest pitched inning of the season. Hunter threw only 5 pitches and got 3 outs. Well done!
Five (!!!) pitch 7th inning for Hunter. Wow. He has been mowing them down tonight.
Might just be a perception rather than something based on stats, but when Greene is going well, he’s near unhittable, but when he’s off, it seems to snowball and really go downhill quickly. Seemed to be the case in a few starts at AAA and then happened a couple of times this year. Not sure if he gets into a pattern that hitters are picking up on or just loses some concentration. Could be one way to take a step forward.
Think it’s because he’s 22 years old in the major leagues.
Never betting on Pham again, otherwise impressed with the team tonight
Just checking in, how’s tonight’s starter doing?
Fair to middlin’
His spot in the rotation is in question.
Got a man crush on Stephenson , that kid can hit!
Getting it in for that rain delay win
OK at least we get Pham up for another at bat
Lopez with a couple hits.
Hope no one has a heart attack trying to pull that tarp
It’s 7-0. Just call it. Game over
Mother Nature and Father Time always win
Would Greene get credit for a shutout if the game is ended due to rain?
I run out to fetch ice cream for DD#1 (visiting for about a month) and come back to see it’s the bottom of the 7th, we’re up 7-0, and it is POURING while the crew attempts to put the tarp properly on the field.
I’m thinking we’re done for the night. Did Greene pitch the 7th?
Catch you all tomorrow.
yes he pitched the 7th. Rain delay prob ending it at that
You’re always eating. 🙂
He didn’t ask us if we wanted ice cream.
Menu says burgers on the flat-top griddle tomorrow night. At least that’s the plan at this point.
Tell me about it. He’s always making me hungry for something. 🙂
Don’t know it I’ve ever seen a tarp get “stuck” like that and not cover the whole infield.
Kudos to Greene. He appears to be learning to pitch.
Just checked in and see Greene is only at 87 pitches through 7? Need to see more games like this. Weather radar looks like the rain is here to stay? Will they call it soon and if so, does it wipe out the bottom of the 7th?
I wanted to see a complete game. Do they still throw those? 🙂
Aren’t complete games against the rules decreed by the gods of analytics? It’s been so long since I’ve seen a rainout that I can’t remember the rules. They always seem to be completed the next day and I’m too lazy to look up the rules.
It will be great if the game ends, but I guess they will lose all of 7th inning stats if it’s called.
Lopez, Almora, Ty, and Drury hits get nullified.
Had a thought! Maybe we can acquire Mad Bum for $10M and team him up with Mike Minor!
I assume that some weird rules put in place during Covid revert back to the long standing precedents now. The game is official after 5 ABs by the visiting team when they are behind. Thus, the Reds win and all stats are recorded as they happened. All that needs to be done now is a little Kubuki Theatre for the umpires to officially deem the game a “rain out” as it will obviously not resume with the tarp issues and amount of standing water elsewhere. Nice win and I think Hunter gets an official shutout and CG but not entirely sure.
Thanks for all that.
It’s a win regardless since that pond that is now third base won’t find dry dock until sometime tomorrow.
+1,000 for the Kabuki Theatre reference … that made me smile
Sooner or later, Hunter Greene is going to throw a non hitter! In the meantime, let’s enjoy the W.
Good night all
Game called. Final Reds 7, Diamondbacks 0
In the books as 7-0? Could have sworn the bottom of the 7th would be wiped but I’m not as young as I once was and maybe I’m remembering incorrectly.
Me neither. Good for the guys that get to keep their 7th inning hits.