The final game of the month of April was a near perfect representation of the brutal first month of the season for the Cincinnati Reds. Connor Overton was called up and gave the Reds an incredible performance through 5.1 innings. The Reds offense had hit the ball hard off Rockies starter Chad Kuhl, but when Overton left the game, the Reds only had a 2-0 lead.
Art Warren entered the game replacing Overton having only allowed 2 runs in his last 23 appearances. Four runs scored off Warren (3 officially charged to him), and the spectacular start from Overton was quickly washed away. Aramis Gracia homered in the 8th inning, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Reds from losing again. The Reds finish the month of April with a record of 3-18. That ties the 2018 team for the worst start in franchise history. The Reds are now just one loss away from the worst start in franchise history. The Reds have lost 9 in a row on the road.
The Reds have lost 16 of 17 games for the first time since August of 1945. This is only the 4th season the franchise has had such a stretch (1914, 1930, 1945, 2022).
— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) May 1, 2022
| Final | R | H | E |
| Colorado Rockies (12-9) | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (3-18) | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| W: Kuhl (3-0) L: Warren (0-1) S: Bard (6) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Biggest Play of the Game
Source: FanGraphs
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Art Warren allowing 2 runs to score on a Charlie Blackmon double with 1 out in the 8th inning (throwing error by Jake Fraley allowed the 2nd run to score), tying the game at 2. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 26.0% (from 65.4% to 39.4%).
Positives
Connor Overton was simply spectacular for the Reds in his debut. He had the Rockies hitters off balance all night, and over 5.1 innings left with a 2-0 lead and only a single runner on first base. Overton only allowed a total of 4 hard hit balls on the night at Coors Field, against the Rockies – who lead the NL in team OPS. It seemed like this was just a spot start for Overton, but it’s hard to see after this performance how he isn’t worthy of at least one more start with Sanmartin and Gutierrez’ struggles. Overton’s final line: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K.
Tyler Naquin hit the first pitch of the game 375 feet for his second home run of the season. Naquin had been struggling since returning from illness, so this was nice to see.
Aramis Garcia hit his first home run as a Red to make it a 4-3 game in the 8th. Garcia hit 5 home runs in spring training.
Aramis Garcia vs Chad Kuhl#ATOBTTR
Home Run ?
Exit velo: 103.6 mph
Launch angle: 28 deg
Proj. distance: 436 ftNo doubt about that one ?
That's a dinger in all 30 MLB ballparksCIN (3) @ COL (4)
? 8th pic.twitter.com/3EoCuRcy1V— Would it dong? (@would_it_dong) May 1, 2022
Lucas Sims and Dauri Moreta combined for 2.1 perfect innings of relief.
Negatives
Art Warren simply didn’t have it tonight. It was a real shame after Overton’s performance. Warren got a brutal ball 4 call on a clear strike before he allowed the tying double to Charlie Blackmon. Who knows if that might have changed anything.
Joey Votto was 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts. Votto is now hitting .129/.291/.143 on the season.
Not so random thoughts…………
The hot topic of the night will be David Bell‘s decision to pull Overton after 75 pitches. It felt like one of those decisions that you could be second guessed either way you go. Overton just worked his way up to 92 pitches at AAA, but had only thrown 54, 48 and 80 in the three starts prior. Art Warren had allowed a grand total of 2 runs in his last 23 appearances. Of course 4 runs scored with him on the mound with how things are going for the Reds.
Up Next:
Reds at Rockies
Sunday, 3:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Reiver Sanmartin (10.91 ERA/4.34 xFIP) vs Kyle Freeland (6.16 ERA/3.76 xFIP)
Time to retire Joey Votto, pay him 35 million and say goodbye. It’s becoming painful to watch at this point.
Of all the great Reds players I saw over the years (Robinson, Rose, Morgan, Bench, Perez, and others) only Rose could still play his best at age 40.
Batted .325 and led NL in hits. All-Star, Silver Slugger, top 10 in MVP voting in 1981.
The Reds gave up on Rose and Perez a few years (3 and 4, respectively) too early. They did let Morgan and Foster walk at just the right time, however.
Votto had a nice bounce back season last year, but other than that it’s been painful to watch FOR YEARS. He’s one guy who has been affected mightily by the shift. He just doesn’t seem able to adjust to it.
It’s hilarious with all the dead weight on this team some people can’t help themselves but attack Votto. Which Brennaman are you?
If I was a betting man I’d say Votto spends a lot of his time these days throwing up over what’s happening with this organization. He IS THE consummate professional but he also is human. That’s most likely his BIG problem. I WOULD NOT bet on him being “over the hill”. Not for a second.
I have to say watching Joey’s at bats have been kind of painful to see. Not really sure what has changed in him since last season. I do know he typically starts slower, but this is really bad.
Tomorrow will mark the one week anniversary of the Reds’s last victory. It seems like a month ago.
Reds have lost 15 of 16….that is hard to do.
Wonder if our AA team would have had at least four wins?
What a humbling start for ownership. Almost everything is going wrong, which while some things they arent on control of I think it all pointa back to leadership. Phil Castellini you hope has been humbled in a good way. Im concerned will Greene and Lodolo really turn out to be above average starters for the Reds. If Greene has to pitch 100mph to be good that is a concern. I dont understand the injuries, wondering about the Reda medical staff, or just when you are really bad, is that part of the downfall also that playets aren’t as alert, as aware, and leads to more injuries. It almost seems like the trades and Castellini comments havr put a bad vibe around the whole organization. You can handle rebuilding, and some down times, but man the way they are going about it is very discouraging.
Nick Kirby, nice recap. Although this season is a nightmare, I really do appreciate all the work you, Doug and all the other writers do here.
Thank you! Hopefully brighter days are coming.
This is who the Reds are and will be for the next 10 years…or more!! The organization is damaged beyond any repair as long as it stays in Cincinnati. Which due to the lease with the city, is a very long time. Cincinnati can no longer support a baseball franchise. Its sad but true. No matter the ownership, its only a matter of time before they panic and decide to dismantle when the team is good.
Ken it is my belief ownership is doing its best to not only destroy the franchise but also the fan base. And the reason why is to move the team. Phil C hinted at that in his opening day comments. I don’t think it will be ten years. Leases can be broken
Curious, new to this blog
Who’s the statue for the pic headlining this post
Well I thought tonight was a good game and the Reds were at least competitive. Great game by Overton. Yes the Reds continue to find ways to lose but at least they were in a position to win today…baby steps…
“Four runs scored off Warren (2 officially charged to him)…”
Should read 3 runs charged to Warren. He allowed the one inherited runner to score, and allowed 3 of his own. He walked a batter, gave up a double, walked another batter, got an out, then gave up a triple before recording an out. All 3 runs were earned after he gave up the triple.
Thanks, I fixed it. I swear that the box score said that he only got charged for 2 runs at first, but it’s 3 now.
Article quotes a tweet from Joel Luckhaupt claiming the Reds have lost 16 of 17 games for the first time since August of 1945. That is not correct. The Reds have lost 15 of 16 not 16 of 17. You will have to wait until tomorrow to see if the Reds lose to match that mark.
I want to correct this paragraph:
Should read 3 runs charged to Warren. He allowed the one inherited runner to score, and allowed 3 of his own. He walked a batter, gave up a double, walked another batter, got an out, then gave up a triple. Lucas Sims came in and got the final out of the inning. All 3 runs were earned after Warren gave up that triple.
Who are the two coming off the roster for May 1st? It wouldn’t surprise me if Overton was sent back down.
Not trying to sound flippant, but does it matter? At this point I’m just hoping some trade bait guys get hot and Increase their return value.
When you only score one or two runs a game and get beat 4-2 it’s the equivalent of a good old fashioned butt whippin. That’s what’s happening virtually every game. We’re really not close to winning. I hope MLB is paying close attention to what’s been going on after the comments by the son of Big Bob.
With this bull pen I think Bell would have been much less second guessed had he stayed with Overton a little longer. This is his 4th year and he still has no feel for the game and I don’t think he will ever get any better. I continue to ask the question when will the record be so bad that a change has to be made just to try and save face. I think we are past that time and will 3 and 22 coming home on Friday be the end. God I hope so.
100% agreement. Bell has a terrible feel for the game. Overton had 1 on & 1 out. He wasn’t struggling. Let him try and finish the inning.
I have been saying for years that Bell never lets his starters get a chance to get out of their own jams. He pulls starters too early, and I don’t want to hear about how 5 innings is the average start stuff either. If a guy is under 90 pitches still and isn’t getting clobbered, you keep him in a little longer or let him finish the innings at least.
I have never felt bell was going to be or has been a good manager for this team. Time to move on.
Had to do a double take but confirmed MLB scheduling is stupid. After they lose tomorrow they get 3 at MIL, 4 v PiT, 3 v MIL, 4 at PiT….
Anyway I really hope the Reds draw under 100K for next 7 game homestand. They really loaded up the promotions though so I’m afraid
As one of Bell’s most consistent critics, I find it hard to imagine too many people would have “second guessed” him for leaving in a starter who’d been cruising along and thrown just 75 pitches. For the most part, Bell gets criticized for his dumb decisions, not his reasonable ones. He makes plenty of dumb decisions to keep the critics busy; we don’t need to invent reasons to complain about him.
100 percent agree.
I think the team being so bad is really hurting Votto. Compare the player you see now to the one who was miked up for the season opener. He looks like he is embarrassed to be a part of this mess even though truth be told he has not helped at all. Hopefully this will be his last year, nobody can enjoy this especially at his age. The truth is the players look like they are embarrassed, and they should be. That is why Bell needs to go asap, get another voice in there and in a small way start all over again.
Have said it before but truly believe that the Winker/Suarez trade did more harm than just taking those bats out of the lineup. It really set the tone for the season and they lost a lot of clubhouse leadership with those guys gone.
Agree 100%. Miley and Gray were fierce competitors too. All gone.
Take a look at what the former Reds are doing around baseball. Lorenzen, Iglasies, Suarez, even Garret. Sad too think how good we would be with those guys around. OH, and by the way,
SELL THE TEAM BOB.
Yes, certainly Suarez. Likeable and a clubhouse leader.
This season’s collapse of the Reds is the result of controlling ownership not having sufficient resources to compete in present day money dominated ML baseball.
Votto isn’t hitting very well. Lots of factors at play such as age, consistent slow starts later in his career, small sample size, the shift, etc. But I do think the roster does him no favors. He has no protection, there’s no Winker and Castellanos hitting ahead of him or behind him. He’s taking walks at a solid rate, likely because he isn’t being given a whole lot to hit.
Still, he needs to capitalize on the balls he can hit. Easier said than done, especially when ownership has stripped all the joy out of playing.
This falls directly on the shoulders of Bob and Phil Castellini. When Kyle Farmer is the most consistent hitter in your lineup that is all you need to know. The fans were sold a bill of goods. This team doesn’t even look like a rebuilding ball club. It looks like a bad ball club. Who do you trade to get better? Who do you bring up to get better?
Amazing that the 2 worse opening season for the Reds are under Bob and Phil!!!!!! Hahahahaha!!!!!! Hope their sleeping well. Hey does anyone out there know Elon Musk??? Maybe he’ll buy the Reds and help give us a winner again. I sure hope things turn around very soon. I have tickets for Reds/Cardinals game in St. Louis in June and if the Reds lose it’s going to be a long car ride for me. And Wow!!!!! How about that former Red that Bob and Phil let get away. José Antonio Iglesias, .322 Batting Average would look good in a Reds lineup. Done for the Day, Hopefully I don’t have to rant tonight. Thanks for the Vent.
In spring of 2020, I was scheduled to go to Tesla for a meeting and Elon was supposed to be there. Then covid hit and the meeting was never rescheduled.
But, as far as the Reds go, I doubt the guy who’s worried about making us an interplanetary (on the way to making us an interstellar) species worries too much about baseball games.
He leaves things like Baseball to the mortals like us.
You have to remember this is exactly what Reds ownership wanted. A team doesn’t lose this badly because of bad luck. Ownership stripped this team of most of its best players just before the season started. There was very little to gain by doing that by this franchise. They didn’t save hardly anything as far as payroll. They got almost nothing in return talent wise. They certainly had no concerns about how the fans might react based on the comments by Phil C on opening day. This franchise is a farce. It’s a major league team in name only. There’s absolutely zero hope of competing. I admire those here who still follow this team and even find positives in this dumpster fire. Unfortunately they aren’t helping things. Every fan should be outraged.
Very good point. Like I said I’m not watching most of the games. I am rooting for my 2nd favorite team the Blue Jays and man are they fun to watch. Their lineup is sick. They have a pretty decent bullpen, and their starting staff shows their ownership is trying to win.
I pray some major changes start happening with the Reds Something has to give or make some kind of change right now.
From 2 and 2 to 3 and 18 that is losing 16 out of 17. They almost matched the Cardinals 17 game winning streak last year in the opposite direction. The strange thing is despite 17 wins a row the Cardinals fired their manager but we just can’t seem to be rid of Bell.
I still blame the owners on this one. They control the Bank.
I think Krall and Bell are to blame as much as the ownership
Like in any organization, ownership makes the policy. Managers below carry it out.
A great comparison of two long-time rival teams. And by the way, the principal owner of the Cardinals is a Cincinnatian.
That’s a brutal start for Votto. I fully expect him to find his groove, but don’t you have to change something? Anything? Move him up in the lineup – or down. Give him a day off against a leftie – or three? Let him DH. Something. He’s not the reason they’re so bad, but if the Reds are going to be decent, they need Joey Votto to hit and to lead the team by example. Time for some kind of shake up.
Two outs in the ninth, Reds need one run to tie. A homerun is needed. Joey takes a hittable pitch down the pike and then strikes out on a ball in the dirt. Game over.
I do not know if it is true, but there is media reporting that Votto has requested a trade.
Please share a link to the article you’re referencing- can’t seem to find anything like this myself
It would seem you (and others) fell for a parody account on twitter.
Who would want him?
One thing that is certain with Bell…he always has to insert himself into the game ( like tonight 6th inning) to let you see how smart he is ….unfortunately it usually shows how incredibly incompetent he is ….absolutely no feel for the game
The Reds current manager of certainly no Lew Pinella.
“Ask not for whom the Bell toils, he toils for thee.”
Cinci deserves a better team, sell the team Bob!
With each passing loss I actually feel more and more relieved. Real change will be coming. Not just with the Reds but with the league itself. I do think the Reds are going to crush the 1962 Mets loss record this year and possibly next year as well. And, I don’t think they will be alone. The orioles and Nationals may lose 120 as well. And this is not because they are “tanking “. They are simply not that good.
The way I see it,there just aren’t enough good position players in the league right now. The rich clubs have bought them all up so there are many teams like the reds who really don’t have any good offensive players at all. I’m not sure the league can survive with a bunch of 20-30 win teams so it will be forced to do something to get more offense in the league. I think the shift ban, oversized bases will come sooner rather than later at the very least
Another way of looking at things is there teams are as bad as they are stands as proof they are successfully tanking.
You got that right Jim. Only took 20 million a year to sign Castellanos and they didn’t even call him. They spent 18.5 on Pham, Moran and Minor. This team is clueless. Let a great player go and signed 3 below average players to keep the tanking going. Oh well, those 10,000 people at a game will dwindle to 5,000 .
Hey Phil. I purchased a game off Steam 8 years ago for 10 bucks. Been playing that during the Reds season. That’s where I went. Good luck!
The Reds are at 16 pitchers on the active roster and can have no more than 14 by game time Tuesday. I can’t imagine the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth that must be going on among the group which sets the roster.
With the 3 batter rule and universal DH, how can a team need more than 13 pitchers (if that many)?
And it will get even “worse” come June when the limit does drop to 13 plus the pitchers’ minimum IL stint and minimum time required to stay in the minors when optioned increases from 10 to 15 days. Oh, the pain! Maybe we will finally see some offense again?
“With the 3 batter rule and universal DH, how can a team need more than 13 pitchers (if that many)?” The answer is obvious. Since our offense is clicking on all cylinders and we already have the DH as you said there really is no reason for extra position players. See? It’s simple. 🙂
Reading all the suggestions and criticisms on the teams performance I offer the following up for discussion. If you were to imagine yourself on the roster and witness day after day a player making $22M a year bat under .150 would that MOTIVATE you? I’m afraid baseball is no longer a FUN GAME for players. I’ll say it again, Votto has made enough money to retire better than any Reds fan ever will. Yet, he grabs for more money blocking opportunity for other rookies to play. Pete Rose has no reason to hang his head in shame. The old argument that he is paid for PAST performances is a joke. Ask any owner if the spend millions in a free agent for their past perforce years ago. The truth if the matter is Votto won’t ask for a trade because he’d be embarrassed to learn no team wanted him. My hope is Votto ends up with a BA of under .100 for the year. That will reduce his all time average to where his entrance into HOF is ZERO.
It is not up to Votto to offer $40-45M back to the team. By WAR value, he had earned every cent in the contract years ago. All sides entered into the deal aware of how the system works and how old Votto was going to be by the last couple of years.
The onus is on the team to find a dignified way out of the situation
Exactly Jim. Can’t place the blame on Votto. This one is on ownership giving him a contract thst goes into 40. Instead of 10 it should have been a 7 year. Just up the money per year. Votto just signed what the owners offered him.
Votto has an OPS of .434, which ranks him 174 of 178 MLB players with enough PAs to be qualified.
Yet they hit him in the middle of the order. They at least oughta hit him 6th of 7th.
He fanned 3 times yesterday swinging at ankle-high pitches. This is not your father’s Joey Votto.
Let’s not forget Moose breathing down his neck at a blistering OPS of .433. Fraley has had significant playing time and .441.
Non-competitive at bats by all 3.
Moose and Votto wont be this poor at the plate but what a terrible April for both.
How long do Votto and particularly Moose, whose numbers were never all that great (Career OPS+ 101 when signed by Reds), continue to get a pass before the obvious, that age may have caught up with both of them, is said aloud?
If I was in the Reds front office, to the extent the CBA allows, I’d have both these guys undergo a battery of testing of their sight, reaction times, hand/eye coordination and the like. If it is gone, it is gone; but better to know that than plod along like they are.
Exactly my point. He has no business batting cleanup right now. Bell is always tardy making obvious changes. Votto should be dropped in the order. Good post.
Votto was electric last year. 36 HR in 129 games. Homered in 6 or 7 consecutive games. How does he fall off that far and that quick? Is the team so bad that he has just sort of quit?
I believe that may be part of his problem, but that is no excuse. A man that wants to be in the HOF can not have such a horrible start to the season no matter how bad his team is. Just look at Ernie Banks for example played on many lousy Cubs teams but I don’t think that was ever an issue with him.
I’ve read that one of the hushed beliefs of many MLB players is that some guys can “lose it” to age almost literally overnight.
Pete Rose was supposedly obsessed with this possibility as it related to his former BRM teammates (Concepcion and Perez) who along with himself were still playing when he returned to the Reds as playing manager in the 1980s.
Rose himself, keeping in mind he was his own manager at this point, completed 1985 with 501 PAs and an OPS+ of 99. Then in 1986, he was essentially an everyday player starting and playing complete games about 5 days a week until the last 10 days of July when he had a run of using himself off the bench in 5 of 7 games while making no starts.
Beginning July 30 through August 16, he made 6 starts/ complete game appearances and 4 off the bench appearances (in 17 team games) before making his final career game appearance off the bench on August 17, 1986.
As I recall Rose just simply quit using himself as a player then was quietly moved to the retired list in the off season.
Maybe it is time for a private man a mano conversation between David Bell and Joey Votto in which Bell poses the question to JV what would JV the manager do with JV the player?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=rosepe01&t=b&year=1986
This is a great historical reference. Rose went from a Lou Gerhig, Cal Ripken style work horse to 50 percent player in just a single season.
This team is a dumpster fire, but everyone knew it would be. What I don’t understand is all the Votto hate in the comments. We all know he is past his prime and will not provide production to match his paycheck. That is how long term contracts for stars work and is the price you pay to keep a player of that caliber. When he was producing 6-8 WAR a year and competing for MVPs for half the pay no one had a problem with the contract. Also Votto has always been horrible in April so the chances are he will improve, just probably not compete for an MVP trophy.
If you want to talk about bad contracts, Moose and Shogo we’re horrible from day 1. Trading for Minor with a $10 million contract, releasing Miley, trading Winker to get rid of Suarez (who is hitting better than anyone in the roster right now) and taking on just about as much payroll in mediocre free agent signings. Those are all bad decisions. Votto, while unfortunate and a huge hit to the current payroll is not the problem with the Reds
I only caught the highlights. What particularly stood out to me was the errant throw from the outfield that didn’t get cut off. With a team desperate for a victory you would think one of the two cutoff men could have at least attempted to dive to glove the ball. Says a lot about why this team is where they are.
I thought the same thing. You can’t let that ball get by. Votto was second in line. He has to make every attempt to stop that ball. This team has given up. You think they are miserable now, wait until the summer when it’s hot out and they are getting pummeled.
My sons little league team had better defenders than Votto. And that is not an exageration.
+1000
That was one botched play on a number of parts as I saw it. Looked like Fraley came up looking to go to 2B with the throw but the 2B was set up to relay to 3B or home and Fraley tried to change his aim in mid motion with the throw ending up between the 2 destinations. Then how some aggregation of the 2B, Farmer, and Votto didn’t manage to corral the ball on the ground is another whole matter.
In the Wednesday night game, on Machada’s RBI double in the 9th inning, it appeared Fraley either did not see, misread, or simply gave up on the ball that in the end looked playable as it splashed down either on the track or low on the wall. There were 2 outs at the time and no reason not to sell out going for it at the wall.
The night before there was the “no man’s land” ball on which Naquin appeared to downshift to cruise mode because Votto looked like he had the play covered and then the 2B (again not India) came in late and all 3 froze with the ball parachuting among them.
This team deserves Bob Boone coming back as manager!
NOBODY, including this current Reds team deserves Bob Boone, , ,
Not even Phil the Phool?
Why does it seem the 4+ run innings are the harbinger of a loss this season? And we gave them runners to boot again.
Heavy sight …
Why wouldn’t you let Overton go 90 pitches.He was just what the team needed!A GREAT start from your AAA callup.Worst case scenario if you leave him in, they tie the score. then go get him. Another game lost by bad overmanaging..A good manager wins 7 to 10 games a year by knowing how to manage. a bad manager loses 7 to10 games by NOT knowing how to manage. Last year BELL had 13 losses. You can say he doesn’t have the horses this year but he had the horses last year. He is supposed to be bringing the reds into the new analytic age of baseball but he just doesn’t have it as a manager. sorry to be so negative but this ridiculous if you’ve been a reds for 60 years like I have. In Bells defense, it’s hard to replace 100 hr’s and 300 rbi’s.The front office let a virtual MURDERERS ROW get away. For the first time Votto had a bona-fide
leadoff man and protection for Votto two deep in each direction in the lineup.they have guaranteed Votto won’t play in a world series. Sell the team to Nick Lachey and let him put the 180 million dollars that they get from BALLYS and ESPN to better use!
If no one has been fired from the Reds technical staff overall at this moment with a 3-18 record this only means one thing; the Ownership recognizes its fault in this catastrophe…
The ownership was clueless to extend Bell after last seasons collapse ….that’s all you need to know about this ownership group….total incompetence all the way around
It may have been just as well that they kept Bell, because they would have stunk with Sparky or any other HOF manager. The new guy would have been blamed.
Now, they can get a new guy in as things turn up, and he doesn’t have the baggage of having managed the ’62 Mets.
I think it’s good they kept Bell now because now we all can see just how bad he is. Though I have to say ownership cutting payroll so much was the main reason to blame, but to replace guys with guys we had that would have been better at around the same salary just makes me sick.
Read Bell’s comments on the pitcher change last night. Brought up the usual 3rd time through the order BS. That statistically, the opposing team hits the pitcher better the third time through the order DOES NOT MEAN pull the pitcher before he faces the opposition a third time. That is the problem of treating descriptive statistics as inferential statistics. That underlies the entire “analytics” myth. That the average homerun has a launch angle of 29 degrees +/- 1/2 a degree, with an EV of 101 +/- 4 does not mean that every player should strive to match that launch angle. That’s simply will not and hasn’t worked. Some guys aren’t sluggers and trying to be one simply ruins what they are good at. Hey, Joey are you listening? Understanding sabermetrics by Costa et.al. is a good overview by a couple of math professor/baseball junkies. Baseball is being destroyed by the abuse of statistics. It’s sad and destructive to many individual careers and the game itself, especially when wielded by the clueless like Bell.
My view of pitching changes is that one should never take out an effective pitcher, especially just to satisfy some analytics metric. Very high pitch counts are an exception, but pretty much the only one.
Whether the metric is the “3rd-time-through-the-order,” or “everybody gets a fresh inning,” or whatever the reason, there is very rarely a reason to replace a pitcher who is very effective that day, because the pitcher you replace him with may well not have it that day, even if he Rollie Fingers or Lee Smith.
Bell is the king of it, but it happens almost every day in baseball.
It is almost like they forget that the object of the game is to win. It’s like a football team that is gaining 8 yards/run, but then insists on throwing the ball. Or a basketball team that goes on a spurt playing up and down the court, but then start to sit on the ball in the final 5 minutes.
Brantley didn’t like it, either. He noted that he thought Moustakas should have made the play on the hit. (Stop me if you’ve heard that thought before as to Moustakas’s “defense.”)
How did we get, in a matter of 30 years or fewer, from pitchers throwing complete games and 250+ innings every year to calling something a quality start with 6 innings of 4.50 era results, to fawning over getting 175 innings, to pitchers who can’t make it through the fifth inning, and being said to have a quality start for 4 innings with 0-2 runs given up.
My opinion after reading about a lot of past stars in The Baseball 100, is that pitchers no longer know how to pitch, they only know how to throw. Control is no longer a high priority. Adjusting to the flow of the game is no longer a learned skill. Hunter Greene gets WOW headlines for averaging 100 mph while lasting 4 innings and giving up 3-5 runs. (To his credit he talks about the last two outings as though there is something he is working on so that could be a long term plus.) Everybody has obsession with speed, but velocity is ignored. For the non-scientists, velocity is a combination of speed and direction. Someone who throws it fast, speed, but doesn’t know where it is going, direction, has good speed but terrible velocity.
And spin rates. Don’t forget spin rates. Not many pitchers throw a screwball these days. They’ve fallen out of favor due to the perception of elbow damage. The higher incidence of pitcher injuries and Tommy John surgeries are surely just coincidences and not related to the quest for velocity and spin. I liked baseball much better when 300 innings, sub 3.00 ERA, double digit complete games, etc. were the yardstick by which pitchers were judged. The modern ERA doesn’t matter is absurd as is a starter averaging less than 5 innings per start.
How’s the top of this draft class?
To paraphrase Jack’s Joker ‘This team needs an enema’
It is apparently a good, deep draft, especially offensively. The Reds, being the Reds, will not pick first via the lottery, but sixth.
Just saw this headline on CBSSPORTS.COM: “Reds complete one of the worst Aprils in MLB history with 3 wins in 21 games”……and yet everyone in a leadership position in this organization still has a job…..i purchase the MLB pkg. every year so I can watch my beloved Reds, since I don’t live in Cincinnati… so i wasted that this year (not a great loss) but I feel for the Reds fans who spent their money on season tickets and have to watch this disaster on the field all year…..maybe management can give away free hotdogs at all the home games just as a small “thank you” to loyal fans who flushed thier hard earned money down the toilet buying season tickets
SanMartin probable Sunday with a chance to set the record.
Sad, but in all likelihood.
No india in lineup
I still think someone will be fired tomorrow. I don’t like to see people lose their jobs, but if someone isn’t fired tomorrow, I will be disappointed.
And unless it’s Krall, it won’t make an ounce of difference. Or unless Bob sells the team.
It won’t make a difference if it is Krall. His replacement would likely be another insider yes man. Firing Bell and the coaching staff would be more impactful. Especially if Krall’s marching orders were to hire someone that actually knew what they were doing. Not someone that knows baseball. Someone that knows how to lead and manage.
No one will lose their jobs regardless.Reds are just who they are and nothing will change unless the ownership changes.I don’t watch any of the games but it isn’t surprising to read what others do say about what I will call lack of fundamentals.The Reds are just stuck in a losing culture that again can only be fixed from the top.All I hope for this year is to see all of our younger players to get healthy and stay healthy and see them on the field.Watching India,TySteve,Barrero,Senzel,Lodolo and Greene play gives me hope for the future.I love the old guys but the reality is that Moose,Farmer,Joey and Pham will be long gone before the Reds ever compete again under this ownership.