MLB started tracking pitch velocity officially in 2008. The record for pitches thrown 100+ MPH was 33 from Jacob DeGrom. Tonight, Hunter Greene threw 39 pitches above 100+ in his hometown of Los Angeles.
Greene dominated the mighty Dodgers for five innings. Unfortunately for Greene and the Reds, an elite hitter in Trea Turner caught up to a fairly well located 98.9 MPH fastball and blasted it into the left field seats. Greene would leave later in the inning after 80 pitches, but finished the night throwing just shy of 50% of his pitches above the century mark.
The Reds offense was completely shut down again in Los Angeles until a too little, too late rally in the 9th. The Reds collected just four hits on the night in route to their 5th straight loss to fall to 2-7 on the young season. The Reds missing Jonathan India, Nick Senzel, Donovan Solano and Jose Barrero is certainly not ideal, especially in a four game series at Dodger Stadium, especially against really good left-handed pitchers.
| Final | R | H | E |
| Los Angels Dodgers (6-2) | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (2-7) | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| W: Urias (1-1) L: Greene (1-1) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Biggest Play of the Game
Source: FanGraphs
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Hunter Greene allowing a 2-run home run to Trea Turner with 0 outs in the 6th inning, giving the Dodgers a 2-0 lead. That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 23.7% (from 37.7% to 14.0%).
Positives
Hunter Greene was absolutely electric. For a second straight start, the only damage he allowed was in his final inning of work. No matter how much of a struggle it is right now for this team, Hunter Greene should give Reds fans plenty to feel good about for the future. The most impressive thing for me is that Greene did not walk a single batter in 5.1 innings at Dodger Stadium against that ridiculous lineup. Greene only has 2 walks through his first 10.1 innings pitched. His poise is just remarkable. Greene’s final line: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K.
Hunter Greene pitch-tracking era records tonight:
– 100 mph pitches in game (39)
– 101 mph pitches by SP in game (13)
– 101 mph K’s by SP in game (2, tied w/deGrom + Verlander)— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 17, 2022
Hunter Greene's 59 pitches of 100+ mph through his first two MLB starts are more than the Twins, Orioles, Brewers or D-backs have recorded as a team over the entire pitch-tracking era (since 2008).
— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) April 17, 2022
Tyler Stephenson had a pair of hits. He broke up a no-hitter in the 5th.
Kyle Farmer finally got a hit in the 9th, but had two very hard hit balls for loud outs prior to that: 102.0 EV, .680 xBA lineout in the 4th; 98.0 EV, .450 xBA flyout in the 6th.
Tommy Pham finally got his first hit as a Red in the 9th inning. That ended an 0 for 22 start to his Reds career. Hopefully getting that out of the way will help get him going. Despite the 0 for 22, he has had some good plate appearances drawing walks and hit the ball really hard yesterday.
Negatives
Tyler Stephenson had a pair of passed balls. Both were very tough plays, but this is certainly the one flaw of his game at the moment.
Joey Votto went 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts. It’s been a slow start for Votto as he is hitting .129/.270/.161. Last year, Votto’s Statcast numbers showed a lot promise during his early season lack of results. Entering play today, Votto’s expected-weighted on-base average (xwOBA) was .288. MLB average for that stat is currently .335.
Aquino, Moustakas and Drury each struck out twice. That is a pretty rough bottom of the lineup for the Reds right now.
Not so random thoughts……..
Tomorrow will be a pretty big start for Tyler Mahle. It is clearly the best matchup of the series for the Reds facing a SP with a projected 4.22 ERA. It’s still very early in the season, but you can see how the season could quickly go off the rails for the Reds. Mahle has pitched very well in his first two starts for the Reds. They need a big one again tomorrow.
ICYMI, an update on Nick Senzel:
Nick Senzel was placed on the COVID IL, which has no minimum number of days on the IL. He was at the ballpark yesterday, but was sent to the hotel when he was feeling sick before first pitch.
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) April 16, 2022
Reminder on the COVID IL: You do not have to test positive to be placed on it; just showing symptoms. Nick Senzel has NOT tested positive, but he has been sick for a couple of days.
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) April 17, 2022
Up Next:
Reds at Dodgers
Sunday, 4:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Tyler Mahle (1.00 ERA/1.96 FIP) vs Andrew Heaney (0.00 ERA/1.45 FIP)
The Votto, Pham, Aquino and Moustakas foursome have played most of the games so far and Votto has the highest OPS at .430. Just brutal. Could add Fraley with an OPS of .514 and that’s more than half of the lineup that has almost zero production. They have faced some tough pitching but whew
And then you had two RH hitters (Senzel and India) being out at exactly when they face a spate of LH pitching, and they have absolutely no chance.
They started 4 LH hitters last night (Naquin, Votto, Moustakas and Fraley), none of which have been any good against LH pitching in the last few years, against a very tough lefty in Urias. They never had a chance last night, and won’t against another lefty today.
Don’t get me started on why they activated another relief pitcher in these circumstances, instead of using Alejo Lopez off the taxi squad.
At the end of this road trip — they face 2 more LH pitchers in San Diego, apparently — they need to DFA Aquino and Moran, and start to take a hard look at doing the same to Pham and Moustakas. Pham has shown some signs of life off of a shortened spring training. He at least acts like he hates playing poorly.
I figure that Fredo Phil has decided that the Reds need to give Moose about 100 ABs before deciding whether to release him. Moose is a zero-tool player at this stage. Can’t hit, can’t hit for power, can’t field, can’t throw, and absolutely cannot run. What he can do is eat and cash paychecks.
The only good thing about the Moustakas contract is that it has taught the Castellinis to never, ever give out a long-term contract to a hitter in his 30s. Phil is pretty thick, but his cheapness is a virtue with this lesson learned.
I don’t think you will find the Reds releasing Moose and eating $32M. More likely, I believe will be some type of trade similar to the Suarez move. Something like Moose and a Top 10 prospect for a semi competent vet with a moderate salary like $10M for one year. A rebuilding team should be more than willing to take on a little salary in exchange for a top 10 prospect like Hinds or Santillan. Otherwise, I think you will find Moose holding a roster spot on the Reds. It is going to take some pain to get some gain here IMO.
They have stated repeatedly that they won’t attach a prospect to get rid of a contract, and they haven’t done that yet. They gave up Winker (and his future salary) to get rid of Suarez, but they also got back Williamson.
The one thing that is certain in all of their deals since the end of last season is that they are accumulating prospects. Say what you want about the Reds, but Krall fully understands that Moustakas has a contract worth about Negative $34 Million. Every other team understands that, too, and nobody is going to take it on, unless they throw in Elly De La Cruz AND Matt McLean, which the Reds won’t do.
Prospects are worth money, too. There is no point to giving up $40 million in prospect value to save $33 million on Moose’s contract. And that is why the Castellinis, cheap or not, are not going to do that.
They will eat Moustakas’s contract; it’s just a matter of when they do so.
@OLD I’m thinking they’ll attach Mahle & Moustakas, but get back a decent return, obviously diminished by attaching Moose. It will need to be a team with money left under the cap.
OBE, I think we are on the same page re: Moose and that he likely is with us thru 2023. I am aware also of the repeated Krall statements around not trading prospects. But if we really want to move Moose and his $32M burden, we are going to have to attach a very sweet piece. We only have about 3 interesting trade pieces on our roster – Mahle, Castillo, and Senzel. And maybe Barrero and Santillian. One of those combined with Moose might get an interested party. But seriously, I do not think we can gut this team anymore without total embarassment and an MLB inquiry. That is the sole reason why I said I think we will have to attach a Top 10 prospect. Look, this thing has totally collapsed around Krall and Bell, and the current team needs to be improved like now. I totally appreciate sentiments that this team is going nowhere but right now we need some semblence of pride and capability. Not having a lead all week says we are at a AA or AAA level. If the upcoming home games result in more losses than wins, then Krall wont survive. He can say what he wants about not trading prospects to rid big contracts but he or his successor has no other choice at this point. Or we can hold onto Moose and have the same dilemma into 2023.
The schedule this month could really sink the Reds overall. May has some tough parts but much easier than April.
Hunter Greene – ace in the making.
Let’s hope his career isn’t wasted like Mario Soto.
Just popped in on the stats of Seattle. Our supposedly great Winker and Suarez are both batting .172. Now let me see, who got the better deal so far? Also saw that Gray had to leave the game over elbow injury issues. I’m beginning to be of the opinion MLB is fast turning into a baseball WELFARE/DISABILITY program. Getting paid to do NOTHING. Let’s face it, baseball is no longer the GAME it was. As I see it it now resembles our governments form or taxation: take from the middle class and give it to the upper class. Like myself, some fans on this forum decided to stop feeding the GREEDY REDS MACHINE (owners). Maybe the citizens and fans in Cincinnati can establish their team that resembles the Green Bay Packers – no owners per se. As a fan I too go back to the days of the early 60s. Right now I am 2 years into my self designed REHAB program to cut completely loose from my Reds addiction and the sport of baseball. I eliminated streaming games but I still check in on game results and player stats. I mainly do this to sort of “get a good laugh.” And I certainly do get a good laugh. My rehab will probably end by game #150 or so. I hate to say it but REHAB is the only way out of being CONNED by the owners of the team. Has anyone called Elon Musk yet? Maybe he has a sympathetic heart. Maybe if the city BEGGED him to buy out the owners the city would be proud again. How about a billboard encouraging the city to PETITION the owner’s businesses. Hit them in THEIR pocketbook so they can feel what the fans do. Uh, Oh I’m slipping back into my addiction mode again. Gotta go !
I don’t have issue with your takes on Winker and Suárez.
But the top 10% of taxpayers pay 90% of the taxes. Why? Because people like Musk get $100 million tax bills. I am not sure what he “stole” from the middle class but he creates a ton of middle class jobs
I don’t think the Reds are this bad, especially if they can get a little healthier. But I do think they are digging themselves a hole they won’t be able to get out of.
Nah they are this bad. Probably worse.
They aren’t quite this bad. They have been missing India, Senzel and Barrero, and will be much, much more athletic when those 3 are playing. They also haven’t gotten around to figuring out that their usual crop of retreads — Moran, Fraley Pham, etc. — aren’t really going to help. Plus, they have faced a ton of elite pitching due to a tough schedule.
By about June, they will have stabilized, but will be out of it by then.
Missing Barrero ? He’s never done anything in the majors how can they miss him
It’s unlikely that Votto, India and Senzel will finish the year hitting under .200 or slightly above it.
This kid seems to be the real deal. It would be exciting to see him develop with a franchise that was actually trying to build a winner. Unfortunately the Reds are not that franchise. Instead they see him as a trade bait at some point. And hopefully he won’t get hurt because the Reds have a legacy of sore arms.
I would have liked to see him pulled after five last night. He was around 70 pitches as I recall. A shutout appearance against a loaded team in his hometown. It would have lowered his ERA and not cost him an L.
Just the opposite. I wished Bell would have left him in after Stphenson’s bungle. He maybe even more so than other pitchers needs built up. After 79 the first outing, I was hoping for 90. Pampering time with both him and Lodolo needs to end. They both are now filling the role of a starting pitcher which means 100 pitches. Not necessarily with the abbreviated spring training but say early May. Looked to me like he was trying to push through and might have been well served with some additional patience. I am not concerned with Greene personal stats. I am a lot more interested in the Reds record short and long term.
I liked the Bell’s decision to pull him when he did, his velo and loc was fading. I think after 2 more starts, most pitchers will be full go. I don’t think we need to risk our talented arms for a W, in a season where we are not likely to do anything. Don’t get me wrong, if everything falls our way we could make a run, but the health would need to improve greatly and get some career type years for a couple of guys.
Yeah looking at Suarez and Winker. Not so good. Miley is out Gray had to come out. Castellanos is doing well but he had no intention of resigning. All in all until everyone gets well we’ll have to wait and see. Just need to tread water hopeful.
I just want to watch the kids play. Get rid of the old guys and bring up the kids. Bring up Cedrola and elevate Siani to AAA with a later call up. Bring up Friedl.
Yes. If Fraley is the answer, it is a bad question. Both Cedrola and Freidl are better players. Etc., etc.
Remember, though, that Jose Barrero instantly makes this team much faster and better defensively.
@ED> is it just my old biased eyes or are we seeing the clock strike midnight on Farmer as a SS whether or not a Barrero type is in the wings?
Farmer is at that age; and, it appears (to me) game in and game out, he has lost a tick of quickness and sure handedness on defense. And it is still the early days of the season before the wear and tear of the grind becomes a factor.
Jim- I like Farmer but I would like to see the young kids play. I wouldn’t mind flipping Farmer to third when Barrero comes back and using Schrock and Farmer at 3rd. Farmer can also spell Barrero as well. As well as Votto at first and India at 2nd when they need days off.
+1000
Reds might as well start selling individual players in place of a winning team. “Come see Hunter Greene and his Bionic Arm every 5 days.”
Which is why I am still fearful of Big Bob pushing Greene to the bullpen, a la Chapman. Buy a ticket and you “might” get to see him ANY night …
Have to wonder had they taken the approach of using Greene as the closer last year, if they would have made the post season. May have been their last chance for awhile.
Reds had 2 rookie pitchers shut down the best lineup in MLB for 5 innings each. Greene and Sanmartin. Both have very different styles, and can give hitters two completely different looks to adjust to.
Might be…just might be enough to keep me interested this year.
I’ll say it again, Greene will be the Reds second consecutive ROY.
I really like how he lives on the edges with his fastball yet doesn’t issue walks. As with his first start they didn’t get to him until the third time through the batting order…so some of the blame there could be the pitch calling.
And could be he was losing a little finishing life on the fastball and sharpness on his breaking ball even if the velocity did not seem down. All part of the learning process for Greene and whoever is catching him.
He has been close to the dominating pitcher I saw watching him At Class AA via MiLBTV last season. He was good to very good but not that dominating when he got to AAA last year. So, a big step forward if he can retain his stamina across the season.
It’s been a tough week for the Reds, having last won a week ago.
Greene looks more than ready to be a future #1 and perhaps sooner rather than later. This was not a year he was going to make 30 starts and throw 180 innings so might as well get him going early so hes ready for that next year. His fastball location looks like he’s learned under Bauer ,Gray, and Mahle and of course DJ. Build his innings mileage and endurance and refine his change up and slider and he’s that SP 1 by next year.
I’m excited to watch him develop at age 22 and pitch every 5th day. Ill buy tickets to watch him pitch at GABP.