Jon Heyman, who seems to tweet out that the Cincinnati Reds are interested in trading anyone with a pulse nearly every day over the last two offseasons, is doing it again. This morning the reporter from MLB Network said that the Reds front office is still fielding interest in starting pitchers Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Sonny Gray. But not only did he say that, he said that there’s a chance for a trade to happen today.

Update: MLB Network’s Jon Morosi is also reporting that the Texas Rangers have reached out to Cincinnati about Castillo, Mahle, or Gray as they continue to work on adding to their rotation for 2022.

Of course, it’s been over a year now since he was first suggesting that Cincinnati was potentially moving guys like Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, and well, they both pitched for the Reds all of the 2021 season. This offseason has been a little bit different than last year, but both did seem to begin with what appeared to be the giving away of players in order to save some salary.

With all of that said, today is a very specific day. And it’s an important day, too. There is almost assuredly going to be a point during the day in which the owners lock the players out and all transactions will cease. That means no trades (unless they involve minor league players that are not on the 40-man roster). It means no signings of players to big league contracts (guys can still sign minor league deals). Teams and agents aren’t supposed to engage in contract talks.

So if teams are trying to get something accomplished, today may be the day to get it done. While we don’t know how long a lockout could last, teams certainly would prefer to have a better idea of what their team will look like before they enter one. That allows them to plan better, especially if the lockout is going to last a bit. Even if it’s not expected to impact games, if it gets into February before a deal is struck and agreed to, it’s going to cause a rush before spring training as teams try to fill out their rosters at the last second and everything will be truncated. Getting a deal done today makes all of that a little bit easier to handle down the road.

Of course, if the Reds were to trade one of those three pitchers, it would be a huge story. Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray have been All-Star caliber pitchers in their time with Cincinnati. Tyler Mahle was better than both of them in 2021 and has been getting better each year over the last several seasons. You would imagine that the return would be noteworthy in any deal.

Maybe this all is just another way of saying “The Reds are still answering the phone when teams call” and Jon Heyman is once again just tweeting to get people engaged. We’ll find out together.

129 Responses

  1. redsfan4040

    If they were to trade one of them, hopefully a AL West bidding war could happen. Angels need arms to deal with Rangers’ revamped lineup. Rangers just need arms. Be cool to see the Reds get a bigger return because neither team wants the other team to have whichever player.

    • Luke J

      What do you mean?

      I fully expect him to compete for a spot in the bigs next year. He missed a little time in the middle of the season with a blister, and was shut down a little early with “shoulder fatigue”, but was very impressive in the 2021 season. Reason for excitement if you ask me. His time in AA was flat out amazing. And he only got 6.2 innings at AAA after the promotion.

  2. Klugo

    Hope Krall doesn’t get too trigger happy and shoot himself in the foot.

    • Doug Gray

      I’m begging you, and everyone else, to please stop with these crappy, immature nicknames you (general you, not necessarily YOU) give people. Calling David Bell, “Tinker” is the dumbest thing in the history of the world. “Barney” Krall is up there, too. Just please stop. You can very easily get your point across without it.

      • Votto4life

        I agree the name calling is immature but to call comments here the “dumbest in the history of the world” is a bit of hyperbole don’t you think?

      • m2

        One: Who cares what word choice others use assuming the absence of vulgarity or hateful comments?
        Two: The repeated rants on how “cheap” the ownership group is – makes one giggle. Again don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. See 2019-2020 expenditures for affirmation. The pandemic induced revenue drain was particularly disastrous to Reds ownership. And equally important what did all the high price acquisitions do for the club (see Shogo , Moose et al.)
        Three: Status quo produced a mediocre outcome in season 2021. Those who advocate retention of the squad largely as is apparently seek more of the same?
        Four: Putting a competitive team on the field means jettisoning some of the players/contracts that are not or are projected to not be useful to the Reds future – as in sell high or dump if all else fails (my candidate here is Winker, Jesse – unless he can find a way to consistently hit left handed pitching, learning to catch a flyball, or equally be available to play 150 games a season).

        Thanks Reds fans.

      • J

        I’m also tired of the childish nicknames, and I’m tired of hyperbole like “dumbest thing in the history of the world” — which is similar to a response I received from Doug when I said something to the effect that Bell’s decisions often give the impression he’s not actually trying to win games. There’s a lot about this site to like, which is why I keep returning, but the rules of engagement aren’t one of them. I do like the fact that commenters theoretically aren’t permitted to engage in personal attacks, but when someone uses a nickname for Reds management, or offers an honest assessment of Bell’s managerial decisions, and is told their comments are “the dumbest ever” or whatever, I’m not sure why that doesn’t constitute an attack. Saying “that was the dumbest comment ever” and “you are dumb” are almost indistinguishable to me. Either one of those could be intended as playful humor or a serious insult. (It reminds me of Michael Scott telling Toby “I hate so much about the things that you choose to be.” We all understood what he meant even if he carefully avoided saying the words “you’re an idiot.”) Maybe I’m overly sensitive, but if someone says my comments are the dumbest words ever spoken, I’m apt to take that as a personal insult rather than a factual observation.

      • Doug Gray

        Saying someone said something dumb and saying someone is dumb are very different things.

      • Klugo

        Tinker Bell was brilliant, actually, whether you agree with the fact that he tinkers too much or not. Hehe.
        It’s harmless really. I think the Reds fan in all of us is very sensitive and volatile right now- not in the mood for jokes, I get it. Okay. No problem.

      • Oldtimer

        Bell has two straight winning (W-L % above .500) seasons as Reds manager.

        (In the past 30 years of Reds history) Before him, Dusty Baker in 2012 and 2013. Jack McKeon in 1998 and 1999. And Davey Johnson in 1994 and 1995.

        Those are three pretty good managers. Bell has been pretty decent, all things considered.

      • Old Big Ed

        In a baseball sense, I don’t see how anything can ever be dumber than trading Christian Yelich for Lewis Brinson.

      • J

        “Saying someone said something dumb and saying someone is dumb are very different things.”

        That’s the stupidest thing anyone has ever said in the history of language. I cannot imagine how a person can possibly say something so stupid. It boggles my mind that such a stupid comment could ever be made by a human. But, to be clear, I’m not insulting your intelligence, because that would be rude.

    • Greenfield Red

      For the most part, name calling is for those who are ignorant of a situation or have no ground to stand on. If you are in a disagreement with anyone, and that person resorts to name calling, you know you are in the right.

      That said, I thought Doo Little and Place Holder were pretty good nick names.

  3. AllTheHype

    I don’t think a trade will happen today. There is really no benefit from Reds’ standpoint to trade before the lockout.

    GMs can continue negotiating trades after the lockout, they just can’t execute them. With most FA SPs off the board, demand for top flight SP is hot and Reds just need to take their time and wait to be overwhelmed.

    • Stock

      I am not sure about this. Based on what players are getting in FA the cost of a FA has gone up. This makes controlled players more valuable. But if the new agreement suddenly makes it more appealing for players in year 4-6 financially the value of Castillo and Mahle plumment. Gray’s value would go up even more in this scenario. Makes sense to trade Castillo/Mahle today to avoid this risk.

  4. RedBB

    At this point since we aren’t serious about competing I would go all in and trade Castillo and Gray and get 3 or 4 top prospects to fill our holes in the lineup.

    • PTBNL

      What holes would be worth trading those two:
      C= Tyler Stephenson
      1B= Joey Votto (for a couple more years)
      2B= Jonathan India
      3B=Geno Suarez/Nick Senzel/Lopez/Schrock
      SS= Jose Barrero/Kyle Farmer
      LF=Jesse WInker
      CF= Nick Senzel/Shogo/Friedl
      RF=Tyler Naquin/A. Aquino

      SP: Castillo/Gray/Mahle/Santillan/Lodolo/Greene/Ashcraft/Gutierrez/San Martin/Hoffman
      RP: Sims/Cessa/Wilson/Garrett/Moreta/Warren/Wilson and any loser in the SP battle

      • KG

        I agree with you, there aren’t any massive holes to fill, but we could sure use one above average outfielder and a couple of quality bullpen arms.

      • MBS

        CF, RF would be the 2 most pressing holes. But you also have to think post 23 team makeup. Moose, and Votto will be gone, and all 3 of these arms (Castillo, Gray, Mahle) will be gone. We seem to have a nice system working now. Hopefully that will get to the point where we are the reloading team, not the rebuilding team. It’s really the only hope we have with a tight walleted owner.

      • AllTheHype

        All three OF spots need help. Only strength is RF and LF against RHP. Who plays against LHP? DH weak also against LHP. Relief pitching is very weak. Start Pitching needs some youngsters to perform very well to fill the loss of 6 WAR starter.

        76 win team.

      • LDS

        If this is the lineup the Reds go with this year, It’s going to be an ugly year.

      • jon

        I see holes at 3rd,at least 1 outfielder,1st base, and bullpen. The players you listed couldn’t make the playoffs last year and has a huge collapse the 2 mths. of the season.You don’t see any holes? SMH.LOL.

    • Michael E

      I agree with you RedBB. If we’re just going for near-mediocrity, go ahead and trade the big trade pieces now and get a quick influx of a few prospects added to our top 10 list.
      By the time Reds can clear out underperforming/overpaid players, Castillo, Gray and Mahle will be free agents and we’ll lose all of them for nothing just when we might be ready to compete again.

      Trade them. When negotiating for one of our pitches ask for the other teams top prospect and if they balk, say fine, we’ll take the next TWO on your list then. If they balk at all that, then tell them they have to take Moustakas and Akiyama instead.

  5. Votto4life

    It amazes me how many people are eager to trade 3/5 of the Reds rotation. Yes it may bring back prospects, who may or may not pan out, but they would be giving a lot of proven talent away for a Hope and a prayer.

    You would think we would have learn something from the last rebuild.

    • Alan Horn

      Agree. The key phrase is giving them away like Miley and Barnhart.

      • jon

        it doesn’t pay to give a backup catcher 7.5m.

    • AllTheHype

      “You would think we would have learn something from the last rebuild”

      Hopefully they did. And that would be, don’t do what Jocketty did, and hold on to your high value players (Cueto, Leake, Chapman, Bruce, Frazier, Cozart) until their free agent walk year and trade them for peanuts.

      “I think a couple of tweaks here and there and I think we’ll be very competitive next year.” – WJ in 2015

      Hopefully the current Reds’ FO does not think the same thing. Tweaks are not what will make the 2022 team competitive.

    • Stock

      learned something like don’t wait to long to trade and get nothing in return?

      All in or all out. They gave away Miley and Barnhart so they are not all in. That means they should be all out. I am not sure a 70 – 80 win team has any value. Build for 2025.

      • Greenfield Red

        Stock, you are singing my tune. I’ve been saying this for years. Red hot or ice cold. Luke warm does nothing. No chance to win the Series.

        Good is the enemy of great.

        Not only should trading Castillo, Gray, Mahle, and even Winker bring back at least 8 to 10 top 100 prospects, the Reds should lose 100 games next year and draft 1st.

        And the thing is, they may only have to be terrible for 1 year. They would have a tremendous amount of young talent just a year away.

    • Frostgiant80

      I don’t know if I am for a rebuild or not. We have so much young talent I think we should be in spend mode. However, I do think a rebuild can be done right if we trade everyone with value and actually get good value. That was not done with the last rebuild.

      • Alan Horn

        Agree. We are on the fence either way. Much of the Red’s lack of success last season was due to injury. Also, the front office waited too long to make moves and relied too much on injured or over the hill veterans.

    • greenmtred

      Wasn’t the common critique of the last rebuild that it wasn’t all in? That the Reds kept too many older players? My critique of it was that the new guys weren’t good enough. The new guys now may well be. Two of them clearly are. I agree that we need outfield help and more relief pitching, but what’s past isn’t necessarily prologue.

    • Michael E

      Votto, trouble is, these are good, not great SPs with 6 or 8 bad starts for each of them every year. Sure, they also fire up 6 or 8 really good starts, but they’re hardly division-winning SPs. They may be our 1, 2 and 3 starters, but on contenders, they’d be 2, 4 and 5.

      The key piece of all this to me though is that we aren’t going to compete this year and their trade value will receed with each passing week in 2021. All three will be gone to FA by the time we’re ready to compete again (and maybe we won’t be for many years, who knows). I think that is the key argument. We can stink with 3 replacements from AAA and FA waiver pile just as well as we can stink with Castillo, Gray and Mahle.

      I don’t want to give any of them away. I only agree with trading them if we do get high upside prospects or some mix of a good prospect and making the other team take Moustakas or Akiyama or other subpar/overpaid players off our hands.

    • Michael E

      …and add in the benefit of forcing management to give Greene, Lodolo and other young, but no longer too young of prospects a REAL shot and a long look come spring. They’re be inning limits (I have no idea when this started or why, it only serves to lessen the value of a good player, but I digress), but there will no matter when they make the rotation, so might as well be in 2022, so that by 2023 they’re ready to go 200+ innings, barring blisters and turf toe..or splinters from resting too much.

    • JayTheRed

      I don’t want any of them to go. Starting pitching has been good for us the past few years and I would like that to continue into the next 10 years plus.

      I really wish the team would extend some of our starting pitching.

  6. SteveO

    Castillo and Suarez to Texas for Kiner-Falefa, Jung, Winn and Leiter.
    Gray to Dodgers for Pages and Nastrini
    Mahle to Angels for Detmers and Bush

    Kiner-Falefa and Farmer utility and backup C, starting IF of Stephenson, Votto, India, Barrero and Kiner-Falefa. Moose/Farmer DH, starting OF Winker, Senzel and Naquin or Senzel at 3B and Kiner-Falefa in LF with Naquin in CF and Winker in RF. Shrock, Shogo and Aquino bench.
    Growing pains SP of Gutierrez, Sanmartin, Greene, Lodolo and Detmers.

    • Michael E

      Well, I think all three teams laugh uncontrollably at those demands, but if we got half of each of those trades, I’d be pretty stoked.

    • jon

      got to get rid of moose and Suarez with these deals.

  7. RedsFanInFL

    I understand Castellanos opting out and probably not resigning for next near was an expected outcome. But I was hoping the Reds would keep the remainder of the roster intact. Reds were competitive and in the wild card race until their late season dive. Adding a couple of players from the farm system +\- 2nd or 3rd tier free agents to fill out the roster and I think the Reds could still be competitive. With the money being spent on free agents this off-season, Miley and Barnhart contracts would be considered bargains. Not sure what direction they are going. Either try and win or go all in on the rebuild and maximize returns on future prospects by trading all veterans that they can.

    • Chris Holbert

      Is wildcard really the goal…why bother?

      • JayTheRed

        That’s the intent of the owners. By adding more playoff teams, it will make it easier for owners to say we made it to the playoffs what is everyone complaining about. Well, if there are half the teams making it then it’s not really that special for a team to be in the playoffs anymore

        I am really hoping that more teams are not added to the playoffs at this point.

      • Doc

        Wild card teams have also been feted as World Champions. Got to get into the playoffs before you can win them.

  8. DataDumpster

    The Reds want to trade one of them and the prices received for several other SP has been extremely generous. They have already decided before the season was over not to compete for the division title the next 2 years, so why not? Krall needs to prove he can make a good trade and put a team together that Bell can manage. The iron is hot now, it may not be after the new CBA is agreed to. Not trading one of the three doesn’t seem right as they certainly have more pressing needs elsewhere than SP.

    • Michael E

      Exactly. No point in holding on to all three if one of them has very high value and will get us top upside talent in return. We’ll lose a few more games, but not like we’d contend with those three and well below average offense anyway. Our best hitter is gone and one of the other better ones is injury prone. the last one is old and might regress again. The rest…meh, we’ll be bottom three in NL in runs scored, so holding on to three non-aces won’t net us much, if we’re REALLY lucky we sneak up on .500, but reality is more like .450

  9. Bill J

    I look at it this way, when spring training begins everyone is a prospect. Last year Senzel, Winker, Moose, Suarez, Lorenzen and even Castillo were supposed to give the Reds a very good team but, things don’t always work out. So let’s not say out roster is full because we don’t know what may happen over the winter or in spring training.

    • Michael E

      Well, everyone is a lowly prospect at some point. Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Kershaw…all prospects that some on this board would not have wanted because they’re “just prospects likely to bust”

  10. realist

    I am not sure if I even hope the Reds will be successful with this current management team. Of course I love to read Doug’s articles and if the Reds are ever good in this century and if I am still alive I will root for them. Now though, I kinda hope they fail so bad that Bob has to sell the team and Nick Krall is never in charge of anything in baseball again.

  11. AllTheHype

    It’s not a re-build – it’s a re-tool, ala the Rays. Can compete in 23 if done right, or certainly by 24.

    • scotly50

      “It’s not a re-build – it’s a re-tool, ala the Rays. Can compete in 23 if done right, or certainly by 24.”

      It’s the Reds you are talking about. They have no clue how to evaluate players correctly. Either their own or others.

      • realist

        Reds management is undoubtedly riddled with incompetence in fielding a successful baseball team. They are competent at making lots of money so they might be good business people. A meddling owner, cronyism and nepotism would stunt any team and the Reds are chock full of these qualities.

      • greenmtred

        How on earth did they manage to get India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, etc? This is hard to explain in light of your narrative.

      • realist

        How is that hard to explain? a few prospects here and there pan out so what, but the team hasn’t won a playoff series since 1995, mic dropped, nuff said.

      • greenmtred

        Not enough said. If “the Reds have no clue how to evaluate players,” how did they end up with a number of good ones?

    • Michael E

      “if done right”

      There is ALWAYS a catch.

  12. Indy Red Man

    Miley? Didn’t sweat it that much because he’s old and doesn’t perform in September. Plus 88 has no margin for error (see Keuchel being left off playoff roster). Gray? Little guy…not as durable….velocity down a little. Isn’t he 32 or 33? Tradeable!

    Castillo though? Here’s a guy that can dot 100 and go out and win a Cy Young or 2 if he gets it together. Plus he’s still in his 20s and not making a ton. Cmon? No team with a brain trades guys like this unless they get back a ton of high end prospects. Mahle? Even younger and making strides. Not making much either. Why would you trade him? To force teams to take Shogo too or something?

    Reds dump while Marlins and Tigers spend? I don’t know how anyone can put a positive spin on this?

    • AllTheHype

      Rays traded Chris Archer trade before the 18 season, similar scenario, 2 years of control left. They netted Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and current uber prospect Shane Baz. Following that, they had an 80 win season, a 96 win season in 19, went to the WS in 20, then won 100 games in 21.

      Rays do this all the time.

      They seem to be what you call “no team with a brain”. Yet they are the small market team that is the most competitive year in and year out. They are the blue print.

      Perhaps you have it backward?

      • AllTheHype

        or that means the Rays lack a brain I guess, whatever the opposite of “no team with a brain” is.

        Sign me up for lacking a brain. Let’s be brainless like the Rays.

      • David

        I think the cogent point is (from Scotly50) above, is that the Reds have not shown that they have a system for evaluating talent.
        A few years ago, before Craig Counsell was hired by the Brewers, he interviewed for the manager job at Tampa Bay. He was not hired (of course), but in a later interview, he discussed how Tampa Bay had a great system of metrics for evaluating players, and how impressed he was by this.
        And this is the difference. The Rays do “rebuild/retool”, and are not good every year. But they DO have a system, and it does appear to work. The Reds DO NOT have a system, and things are kind of …random. I think Dick Williams (the younger) was TRYING to institute some kind of system and try to bring consistent coaching and instruction into place, but …he also made some mistakes (in retrospect after the debacle of the 2020 season), and was forced out.
        And he is also the son/nephew of one of the minority owners of the Reds. Who else could be secure in the job and want to make some real evolutionary changes than someone who was actually RELATED to the team ownership? Yet, he could not be tolerated.
        The Reds aren’t the WORST managed team in the Majors, but they are on their way to being contenders for that.
        And the reason is that they are NOT being analytical, they are just making guesses. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong. It’s a spin of the roulette wheel every time they do something.

      • BK

        I think the Reds problem has little to do with player evaluation and much to do with the inability to formulate and stick with a strategy. That’s the biggest difference between them and the Rays.

      • Old Big Ed

        Hype, the Chris Archer trade doesn’t count.

        The Pirates made a painstakingly stupid trade. The Reds can’t count on any other team in the next 20 years doing anything similar. I agree that a good, solid trade is out there for the Reds to make for Castillo and that the Rays management is excellent.

      • Stock


        The complete history is
        2007: Rays trade Delmon Young to Twins for Matt Garza
        2011: Rays trade Matt Garza to Cubs for Chris Archer
        2018: Rays trade Chris Archer to Pirates for Glasnow and Meadows and Baz.

      • m2

        Some continue to cry the only way to victory is to spend, spend, spend. These same folks over value players in the Reds system and have no concept of how to assemble a club. Clearly there is a place for stats and analytics but this should compliment not push aside an accurate assessment of talent – including strengths, weaknesses, probability of worth, fit with club, and overall value. I once challenged a very grumpy and narrow-minded writer about trading Jess Winkler and was told that would be foolish because “Jesse rakes.” But he ignored the disclaimer (not in fine print) “Beware this player has performance red flags including can’t field and can not hit lefties and oh yeah health issues (back and more) Similarly some are stating the Reds should not have let Tucker leave. Beyond the emotions of the statement, should we think that Tyler isn’t ready to be an everyday backstop? Should the club pay several million dollars annually because someone is a likeable guy? And keep Miley? Well again a very nice guy who had a solid year, but do you expect this to continue in 2022? 2023? Seems like a big gamble for 10 million given his history. Personnel decisions are not so easy and often if effective run counter to fan (spelled fickle) wishes.

      • Michael E


        We overvalue Castillo. He has been mostly good, rarely great and more often subpar. He has peaked with the Reds. He might find the next tier with another team, but that doesn’t mean he would have with the Reds. I am fine if we trade him and he goes on to win a Cy Young, so long as we get back a Rays type of package in return, we still win.

        Holding on to Castillo serves NO purpose at this point. Our offense is going to be abysmal, unless Winker manages to stay healthy and Votto somehow repeats 2021 in 2020 (highly unlikely given the prior two seasons). We’re gonna be bottom 3 in NL in runs scored. Castillo, Gray and Mahle are the foundation of a league average rotation, not a contender, not with this offense and team defense behind them.

      • Indy Red Man

        You’re talking about one of the dumbest trades in the history of the sport imo with Archer. The bloom was off the rose wayyyyy before Pitt even tried to pick him up?

        Thats not apples & oranges…..thats apples and hand grenades

      • Indy Red Man

        These kids today?

        ADD is running rampant…..dude can’t even finish reading my sentence before he takes off on a tangent?


        you’re welcome

      • Indy Red Man

        Also we’re not overvaluing Castillo. 3.72 career era with a ton of Ks and GABP as your home base is not bad. Thats probably 3.40 in Shea or the West coast.

        Stroman career era 3.63 (Just got 24 mil a year X 3)
        Castillo 3.72 (whats Luis make?)

        Not to mention Stroman needs a slick SS. Castillo’s SS has the range of Vin Diesel

    • greenmtred

      Indy, they haven’t dumped Castillo yet. If they do trade him, it may not be a dump: they may get good value in return. Young pitchers are one of their strengths.

      • Michael E

        I think even most of us jaded fans expect they’ll get a solid return for Castillo (if not surprisingly good) and just a tick less for either Gray or Mahle.

        If they get some other teams #8, 10 and 30 prospect, I’ll be ready to give up following the Reds.

        If they net a player that slots into our top 4 prospects and another that slots in top 8 or so, I’d be okay with that, anything better and I’d be all in on such a trade.

  13. Stock

    Following SteveO

    Gray to the Dodgers
    Pages (OF), Nastrini (RP) and Wilman Diaz (SS) to the Reds

    Mahle to the Angels
    Detmer (SP) and Arol Vera (SS) to the Reds

    Three way trade:

    Friedl (from Reds) and Kiner-Falefa (from Rangers) to the Yankees

    Castillo and Farmer to the Rangers (Reds need to trade Farmer so Bell is forced to play Barrero at SS)

    Austin Wells (C) from Yankees to the Reds
    Mark Leiter (SP), Luisangel Acuna (2B), Evan Carter (OF), Ezequiel Duran (2B), Ronny Henriquez (RP) from the Rangers to the Reds

    • AllTheHype

      Would love to get Detmer back. Not sure Angels do that unless it’s Castillo tho. Castillo and Gray, give me Detmer, Adell (or Marsh), ++

      I could see Dodgers or Angels targeting a bigger Castillo/Gray package.

      Angels start with Detmer/Adell (or Marsh)
      Dodgers start with Lux and someone else in their top 4.

      • Stock

        I agree. If Angels trade Detmers they may want two SP in return. I think Adell + Marsh + Detmers = Gray + Castillo. Maybe Reds throw in Naquin and Friedl for Arol Vera.

    • Melvin

      Too bad we have to trade Farmer to ensure Barrero plays short but you’re probably right.

      • JayTheRed

        Reminds me of Moneyball, Play Scott Hatteberg. over and over again the GM said, and the Manager wouldn’t do it for a long time.

      • greenmtred

        We know that Barrero can play short. We don’t know that he can hit. He’s almost certainly going to get a chance to demonstrate whether he can or not, particularly given the loss of Castellanos. If he can’t hit, though, we’d need Farmer. If Suarez and Moose can’t hit, we’d need Farmer. The Reds were in contention last year with Farmer at short. Plenty of managers would have been very reluctant to replace him with a rookie under those circumstances.

      • old-school

        Farmer was a valuable player the 2nd half of the season against left handed pitching for a team that was exceedingly poor against lefties.

        That said, I don’t know that we can say that he can hit. In fact, I think we can say, at least against right handed pitching, he most assuredly CANNOT hit.

        Against RH pitching

        Career OPS .676 wRC+ 76
        2021 OPS .717 wRC+ 87
        2020 OPS .478 wRC+ 33 ( 44 at bats)
        2019 OPS .620 wRC+ 50

        Farmer turns 32 in August. He has no proven track record as an everyday shortstop. Similarly aged shortstops with elite track records- Freddie Galvis, Jose Iglesias, Andrelton Simmons are all in precipitous decline and jumping from team to team now.

        Zach Cozart was an All start in 2017 but injured his quad in July in his age 31 season. Cozart played a total of 96 games the rest of his career.

        Middle aged shortstops dont age well after 30.

  14. SultanofSwaff

    I’d give up Castillo and Gray for Jung, Leiter, and the CF Taveras. Otherwise, Castillo for Jung or Leiter. Either player fits into the core.

    I’d think the only impetus for a trade today would be for the Rangers in order to work out an extension prior to the lockout.

    I’m shocked to not be reading about a salary floor in the CBA talks. One of the main gripes by the union is the lack of competition. It would be a self-own for them to prioritize the handful of players signing the mega-deals over the rank and file by insisting on a much higher league minimum.

    • BK

      I tend to agree with you. I will be interested to see if MLBPA prioritizes raising the soft salary cap over establishing a floor. I’m glad both sides are largely avoiding media posturing. I’ve seen MLBPA reps speak openly about wanting a more competitive landscape–I believe this should be a top priority. The more teams that enter a season built to win, the better.

  15. Kevin H

    What is the logic trading 3 starting pitchers? I mean seriously what is the logic? Maybe I am too ole school, but that would be the most foolish thing to be done by this organization.

    • Greenfield Red

      They will not win the Series in the next 2 years with them. If you trade them now for great prospects, the Reds would have a shot at the Series in 24.

      l this talk about being competitive is nonsense. Good is the enemy of great.

      That’s why you trade them all and Winker too.

      • SultanofSwaff

        Gray’s the only one who wouldn’t be part of the next competitive window. Of course ownership will claim they tried but Castillo, Mahle, and Winker could/should be plausibly inked to extensions as well. That it’s a given they are too ‘expensive’ is what’s wrong with this ownership group.

      • Greenfield Red

        You said it Sultan, “competitive window”. I couldn’t care less about competitive. I want the Reds to win tbe Series… not be competitive.

        Good is tbe enemy of great.

      • Michael E

        Sultan, NONE of them will be part of the next competitive window. They’ll all three be done when they reach FA. The Reds wont pay (and probalby shouldnt) to keep any of those three, you know it and I know it. So in two years, none of them will be on this roster. Get value for them NOW so we have a couple of promising players with 4 or 5 years of team control left that the Reds can’t consider waiving trading for nothing.

      • Michael E

        We need to be more like Tampa and less like the Pirates. We’re much more Pirate than Ray at this point.

        I agree on “competitive” being the enemy. I’d just as soon lose 100 games two years in a row and be a real, top 5 MLB contender for 3 years and then back to 100 loses, then contantly being .500 ish and stoked about winning 80 games for 10 straight years and never winning a playoff series.

        Right now, this roster as all of about 6 or 8 players worth keeping that would be more than just unplayable utility players on a real contender. Lets clean this roster up, save the money (assuming ownership will again splurge a few years like they did in the mid/early 2010s) and pump the farm system up to top 5 in MLB so we have a nice supply of cheap, young and HUNGRY talent. We have too many unhungry middle-aged players just glad to get that first post rookie contract, contract.

    • Bob Purkey

      OMG, a man with a clue!

      Thank you Kevin for a very reasonable thought!

      • Michael E

        Reasonable, yes. Practical given its the Reds? No.
        Remember all three will be gone in two seasons…there is this FA thing and the Reds won’t pony up 20+ million per year. They only resign if the fade/stink the next year or two and then, whats the point?

  16. Bob Purkey

    When the contracts of Votto, Moose and Shogo are finished in a couple of years, they should be able to retain a couple of those guys. . .

    • Michael E

      They’ll be worth retaining if they pitch good next two seasons. If they do, the Reds will NOT pony up 25 or 30 million a year for 5 or 7 years to keep them. If they pitch below expectations (average or worse) they won’t be worth signing long term or even short term.
      Our best bet is to try and get a bit lucky with a prospect or two that does meet or exceed expectations, on the cheap for 5 or 6 controllable seasons, all cheaper than a “good” Castillo, Gray or Mahle will be.

  17. Steve Schoenbaechler

    I would have no problem trading anyone. There’s so much more to trading than people think of. Some think of just letting a guy go; they don’t think of who’s taking their place. Some think of just bringing in a guy; they don’t think of who they are letting go.

    Now, myself, I would rather not trade Mahle. I could see giving Castillo another season. I could see trading Gray. But, in addition to all of that, if you trade them off, you have to answer, “Are you bringing someone in to take their place?” Or, “Do you have a plan B already in place?” Like with Tucker, we already had a plan B, Tyler. So, we are essentially still set there.

    I mean, come on, people, you wouldn’t take a trade like Castillo for Tatis Jr? I would in a heartbeat. Possibly. The “business aspect” of it I’m a bit hazy on, still.

    • Michael E

      This is how I feel. Losing Castillo wont be a gaping hole, just a step down for a season or two maybe, but we might gain more than we lose in the long run and at a much more payroll friendly rate. If we hold on to all three, we don’t get any better (and we’re going to be a losing team in 2022 given the loss of Castellanos and likely step back with Votto) and their value drops, barring a very unlikely sub 3.00 ERA in 2022 (none have come close recently to that).

  18. Greenfield Red

    You said it Sultan, “competitive window”. I couldn’t care less about competitive. I want the Reds to win tbe Series… not be competitive.

    Good is tbe enemy of great.

    • JayTheRed

      Thank you for this. I too hate the term Competitive Window. Either blow it up and rebuild or start making some trades and signings to help this team get to the World Series.

  19. Old Big Ed

    I think that throwing in Senzel as a sweetener in a trade of a pitcher to a team like the Angels might get a much better prospect. Senzel seems to need a change of scenery, and he would certainly draw interest.

    It would be better, of course, if they kept Senzel and he performed up to his own expectations, but …

    • greenmtred

      More than a change of scenery, Senzel needs a change of soft tissue. He might be interesting to another team, but he has a shocking history of injury, so how much would he really sweeten the pot?

  20. LDS

    I guess a trade could still happen tonight but with the lockdown about underway, it seems less and less likely as the minutes tick away.

  21. Old-school

    Just reading comments

    TJ friedl is apparently a credible everyday outfielder on a playoff team

    Kyle Farmer is a starting SS on a credible playoff team

    Hypothetical backup catchers are fine

    Hypothetical OF to replace All star Silver Slugger Nick Castellanos are game

    Losing TJ antone and Michael givens and Michael lorenzen in a bullpen that was the worst in baseball until givens came aboard… is fine

    The team that had a playoff spot collapsed offensively when Winker got hurt doesnt need Winker because hes a bad left fielder ??? When did left field defense matter? Adam dunn?

    Oh and joey votto turns 39 and apparently got some juiced baseballs to hit from MLB in 2021 second half

    • AllTheHype

      Yeah I read those smh. Apparently a couple tweaks, or maybe none at all, and we’re an 86-90 win team.

  22. AllTheHype

    As the night ticks away and the baseball world soon becomes locked down, let’s revisit a recent transaction from the envied FO of the Rays.

    Wander Franco signed an 11 year deal with a guaranteed $182M.

    He gets a $5M signing bonus now. Then, we note that the first 3 years of the deal are worth $1M, $2M, and $2M. Of course, this is a bump from ML minimum, BUT, and an important BUT, the CBA negotiations are focused squarely on upping the earning potential of those three years for all players, the pre-arb years. The players union has made that a priority. I would surely bet that when the agreement is eventually made, it will be seen that Franco left significant $$$ on the table for those three years.

    Secondly, the arb years in his contract call for $8M, $15M, and $22M, reasonable, a bit higher than comparable players.

    But the meat of the contract, the free agent years that the Rays bought out, years 7-11 of the contract, which are his age 27-31 seasons when he will be in his absolute prime…..will be $25M AAV. And then the Rays get a club option for his age 32 season @ 25M.

    Compare this to Corey Seager, who as a free agent just signed 10 years away for $325M. That is his age 28-37 seasons for $32.5 AAV. But the key point is they have to pay him thru age 37.

    Those free agent years will prove to be a steal for the Rays. And most likely, when he has just the right amount of value left, let’s say his age 31 season with 2 years of control left on the contract, they will trade him for an unbelievable package of talent to keep the motor churning.

    If only we had an FO with that type or foresight. We have players we could make a commitment to, namely India, Stephenson, and Castillo. Sigh…..

    • Old-school

      I think Castillo is the biggest issue for this franchise.

      He has medium internal value in 2022 because the Reds arent really committed to winning. Yet, he is young-ish and a potential ace who throws 99 with a ridiculous change up and has a Cy Young ceiling.

      I’d sign him now for 5 years and 100 million.

      But, Reds arent about winning in 2022/23. They are about making budget and Castillo gets expensive very fast for a franchise who is lukewarm about its commitment to winning in 2022/23 and comfortable finishing behind the Cardinals….again.

      • Chris Holbert

        and the Brewers and probably the Cubs…..

      • AllTheHype

        They handed out a similar contract to Bailey a few years back. I suspect that Bailey contract still sits as a sore that won’t heal in Bob’s mouth. It shouldn’t be a factor in decision making, but I bet it is.

        I’m also not sure that Castillo would cheaply sign away 3 free agent years, his age 30-32 seasons, and then hit the market at age 33. Those 3 years alone would probably cost the Reds a premium, say $100M given where the market is today. Add to that his arb years, probably $120M it would take.

        I want to give Krall the benefit of the doubt, and hope he just had a bad winter last year and he’s going to turn it around and set the team up to compete long-term, but I am not sure that a) he is focused on competing long term or b) that he is savvy enough to do so or c) that he has organizational control to do such.

  23. AllTheHype

    So Delmon Young in 2007 became Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz in 2018. Wow.
    Reds could have a story like that. Dan Strailly in 2017 became (fill in the blanks) in 2021.

  24. LDS

    Looks like the Reds are shooting for 4th place. The Cubs signed Stroman. The Reds? More coaches and coaching promotions.

  25. Bill J

    Don’t know if he would take a minor league contract with an invite to ST but how about Matthew Boyd or Andrew Vasquez, last year generated 61.8% groundball rate in AAA. Looking for a backup catcher, Yohel Pozo, had a slash line of .337/.352/.622 at triple A.

    • AllTheHype

      Matthew Boyd was non-tendered because he will not play in 22 due to TJ.

  26. Schottzie

    If Stromans market is 25 mil per, than Castillo is worth around 4x his current salary.

    If it’s the Rangers, then Leiter and Jung straight up is a rational trade for both sides.

    If it’s the Angels, Marsh and Deitmers with likely a throw in is also fair.

  27. Michael E

    Keep in mind the E.R.A.’s the three just posted:
    Castillo – 3.98 (this
    Gray – 4.19
    Mahle – 3.75

    Castillo is 24, Mahle is 27 and Gray is 32. Castillo could rebound, I get it, he is just entering his prime, but he is very inconsistent to this point.

    Gray and Mahle, this is who they are. This is about as good as they’ll ever be. Why is ANYONE so annoyed by the thought of trading them to a team that is hoping beyond hope they suddenly become 2.50 ERA pitchers and willing to trade as if they were?

    Castillo, due to age and two solid seasons in 2019 and wacky covid 2020 should net a very nice prospect package. If he does, I’d rather trade him now. If you cant get another team to give up two of their top 4 or 5 prospects, then yeah, in that case I’d rather keep him and hope (like we do with prospects) that he somehow meets or exceeds expectations.

    So, I am half in on a Castillo trade, but it has to be very promising return. If we get back a couple of 25 year old AA players, then we should all quit even thinking about this franchise any more, much less watching or posting about them.

    • Optimist

      A few points – 1 – Castillo is 2 years older than Mahle, he’ll be 29 in 2022, Mahle will be 27. 2 – Castillo is who he is, and may get better, but seems to have peaked – Mahle OTOH, has basically, if slightly, improved each year. 3 – As is, Castillo is arguably better than Mahle, and certainly is in the aggregate career to date, but again, Mahle is 2 years younger.

      Neither has significant injury history, and I don’t know enough about mechanics to guess a prognosis going forward, or as to career longevity.

      I wonder, though, if Mahle is actually a better trade chip, and I suppose it comes down to the age difference vs. that changeup/fastball combo.

      Gray is valuable in his own way, but I doubt he factors into the opportunity discussion like Mahle or Castillo.

  28. AllTheHype

    Rays have had 10 winning seasons out of the last 14, and two of those losing seasons were 80 wins. Only one season less than 77 wins, and their highest payroll in any of those seasons was just under $77M.

    Reds are trying to trim down to $120M.

    For the life of me, I don’t understand why more small market teams don’t adopt their strategy. It’s a proven blueprint over time.

  29. Doc

    I suggest everybody join a fantasy league with the proviso that you have to take the players, and get rid of the players, that you constantly want to acquire or jettison. Then report back at the end of the year how your fantasy team did.

    • LDS

      Actually, a decent simulation based game would work better, something more sophisticated than the Strato-matic game. Haven’t looked at baseball gaming since my teens some 50 years ago (Strato, and APBA were the games back then). I’m sure some of the forecasting sites use something. Don’t know if it’s a commercial solution, etc. Fantasy sports can be fun (if there’s money involved) but it’s less than rigorous. Something Monte Carlo based for example that lets a user simulate an entire season quickly with varying rosters, assumptions, etc. Probably something out there but I’m not up on the market.

  30. Eddiek957

    Does anyone know what became of the Old Cossack?

  31. VegasRed

    Interesting board tonite. What stands out to me is those that are advocating trading off the marketable starting pitchers for stocking the talent to try to emerge in 24-25 with a competitive team probably have the best plan if what we want is another little window of action.

    Those that resist that want to enjoy the best chance to win now, and really, who can blame them or anyone who would vote for that?

    The really tough thing is that everyone on here is a fan and understands that the club has put every fan in a losing proposition. And only the fans seem to care.

    Doug is frustrated because he has worked his butt off to provide a forum for the fans to follow the reds as best they can. I think he’s done a great job of that and probably everyone agrees. But it’s the reds team we all chose and regardless how much we care, or the individual way in which we express how and why we care, it’s still the reds at the end of the day.

    I confess I started “tinker bell.” I didn’t try to create an iconic nickname but the image of an ocd character like David bell puttering here and there with no consequences from ownership because he will defend and do whatever nonsense the owner/FO demands, just fell into place, and later use, and it darn sure fits doesn’t it?

    Sorry Doug. I respect you but I don’t respect the reds regime and their flunkies. And that lack of respect is the natural reaction the reds regime is reaping from me and many others because the reds regime has disrespected us fans for almost 2 decades. And sadly we all know it.

    Baseball is in an extremely fascinating shape right now with less than half of the teams being competitiveness.

    The ones who are are spending bucks like there is no tomorrow. And indeed, with inflation likely to rise precipitously, maybe the ones spending knowing the future dollars promised just won’t be worth that much anyway.

    Personally I think mlb is gonna tank unless it ensures an overall cap and floor like the other professional leagues all have done. It’s just not much fun for all the alsorans.

    So make your rules for your board and I will abide cuz I’m still interested due to my bittersweet,cursed reds fandom but, if lack of respect for the reds regime is what you are seeing, try not to make the mistake of taking it personally.

    Cheers for all you do.

  32. west larry

    Well, it’s official. A lockout has been instituted and no trades or signing of mlb players is allowed. The winter meetings have been cancelled, and it looks like a long winter for baseball fans.

  33. Redhaze

    The Brewers just traded Jackie Bradley back to the Red Sox for a player who hit 31 home runs and 90 some RBI (Renfroe). Come on Krall. These are the moves we need to see for the Reds to stay competitive. See if the Royals will take Moustakas back for Whit Merrifield. Ha ha.

    • Max BRAGG

      Krall is to worried about who is singing fOR the 4th of JULY LOL!

  34. 2020ball

    Great “reporting” Heyman, as usual (heavy sarcasm).