The Cincinnati Reds have non-tendered right-handed pitcher Brandon Bailey. He missed the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in February. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic is reporting that Bailey has agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Cincinnati is bringing back the other 10 arbitration eligible players on big league contracts.
That means that the Reds will be bringing back pitchers Luis Castillo, Luis Cessa, Amir Garrett, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Mahle, and Lucas Sims, as well as position players Kyle Farmer, Tyler Naquin, Nick Senzel, and Jesse Winker.
MLB Trade Rumors projects the salaries in arbitration for those players to be as follows:
- Tyler Naquin – $3.6MM
- Luis Cessa – $1.6MM
- Luis Castillo – $7.6MM
- Amir Garrett – $2.2MM
- Jesse Winker – $6.8MM
- Tyler Mahle – $5.6MM
- Kyle Farmer – $2.2MM
- Jeff Hoffman – $1.1MM
- Lucas Sims – $1.2MM
- Nick Senzel – $1.1MM
Teams and players can come to agreements for new contracts before they reach arbitration. Those deals can simply be for the 2022 season, or they can be longer than that if the sides would like. Agreeing to a contract for the 2022 season does not mean that the player would become a free agent after that, unless they were already due to become a free agent at that time.
Tendering the contract also doesn’t mean that the team is on the hook for all of that money. A player tendered a contract, but who is cut/released in spring training is only due 45-days of that pay by the team, not the full season’s amount.
For a player who struggled last season, such as Amir Garrett, but who has found some success in the past, how he looks in spring training could really come into play. Assuming that the MLB Trade Rumors projected salary of $2.2M is correct, but he is released during spring training, that would mean that Cincinnati would owe him $541,000 instead of the full amount.
As things stand tonight, the Cincinnati Reds 40-man roster is at 38 players.
Fine with all of these reports. I thought they may also non tender Jared Solomon. Same situation with coming off of tommy john. I guess they see something they really like in him.
interesting they couldn’t have done the Bailey deal before exposing Cionel Perez to waivers. He seemed to improve later in the year in Louisville but I realize he really stunk in April & May. Its just strange to see an inexpensive, young left hander go for nothing.
Was hoping Garrett would be non=tendered, more so because of his tiring antics and bench-clearing tendencies.
Also the fact that he gets a raise after that putrid year makes me want to retch.
How about Sims and Senzel. A couple putrid seasons who get raises.
Flip side is how little he (and others) make when they are really good. That makes me want to retch, as you say.
Wait, MK, Sims had a putrid year? By what metric?
I’m glad they retained him. What “makes me retch” is organizations like the Reds just throwing away talent, talent that might simply thrive somewhere else, just to save a buck. This happens to be something I see many around here griping about lately, rightfully so.
Maybe this year, he’ll focus on baseball instead of being an SJW.
Reds payroll now should be ~115 million. If they match last years budget ~125 million, they have about $10 million to address a back up catcher, multiple bullpen arms, an outfielder, a RH bat and SP depth. That’s about $1.5 mil per needed player per hole to fill in for the losses of Castellanos, Miley, Barnhart, Givens, Lorenzen plus the holes that were never filled in 2021 in the bullpen and hitting lefties.
All the Reds did is cut payroll to a level that allows Bob to make a bit of profit on the field and a ton of profit off the field and allow the marketers to work their magic. Zero actual baseball plan to win the NL central this year or plan to win next year or 2024.
The Reds plan is let the Akiyama contract expire in 2022 and Moose c and Votto contracts expire in 2023 and Suarez contracts expire in 2024, have the accountants give them the budget every year and let Krall fill in the gaps with AAAA’s or bounce back Veterans to break even and market the players that they can market. Winning?
This is a 74-79 win team.
I was reading the various news items, tweets, etc. tonight and wondered if the Reds had a more optimistic fan than Nick Kirby. You may qualify. I’d be happy to see 79 wins but with the way things are shaping, I’m afraid 74 may be too optimistic. By the time Bob is done, it could be another 90+ losses. Maybe they’ll surprise me but paraphrasing Doug on another thread, they have chosen not to.
Are we really taking shots at people being optimistic now? Is that actually an insult in the Reds fanbase culture? Thats actually sadder to me than what the organization is doing. I get where its coming from, but come on.
With the proposed expanded playoffs that could be a playoff team record.
I’ve not read too much on the CBA negotiations but what little I’ve read leaves me solidly on the player’s side. The owners wanting expanded playoffs (14 teams), more changes to gameplay etc., strikes me as pure greed with little interest in the game itself. Could be wrong, as I’ve said, I’ve not been following closely. It would be in keeping with recent trends.
Players have proposed 12 team
Owners 14… so it seems minimum of (1) additional team per year. Reds would have been that team in 2021
Usually 86-87 wins gets you in if go back in recent years if 3 WC instead of 2
Why the Reds need a plan to win 88 games instead of 78
@LDS – This specific comment, 100% agreed. +1
Doug,
How about keeping a list of all the predictions and the moniker of the predictor, then doing a brief piece monthly during the regular season to see how all the GM wannabes are doing.
Feel free to keep your own spreadsheet. I don’t want this to sound rude, and I swear I’m not trying to be rude – but the amount of time it would take to do that is astronomical and I simply don’t have that kind of time, nor would it be worth my time spent doing so. I don’t even have enough time to read all of the comments left most days, much less also try to then keep track of who has said what. That’s an endeavor for someone with much less on their plate.
What if we assume for a minute that there are a few folks in the Reds brain trust that may know a little more than we do (from the outside looking in). And lets try not to hold Krall accountable for the sins of GM’s in the past. Lets also assume that Nick C is going to be overpaid by some other team, so he was never really coming back. What do we have left….how about a lineup of….Friedl CF, India 2b, Winker LF, Stephenson C, Votto 1B, Suarez 3B, Naquin RF, Farmer SS. Those top 5 get on base a ton, Suarez produces at his September rate, and Naquin/Farmer are good enough. A bench of Schrock, Senzel, Barrerro, and Moose. Castillo, Mahle, Gray, Gutierrez, Sanmartin are my starters. Hoffman had the best year of his career (not great, but improvement), Sims, Cessa, Santillan, Garrett (bounceback year). And we still have the hot pitching prospects in the minors. We lost one big bat when Nick left, but Miley is 35 years old (i hope he does well, but old men cant play ball), and as much as we loved Barnhart he couldnt hit. What if the production from Stephenson (3 war) and Friedl (2 war) is equal to the lost production of Nick C (4 war) and Barnhart (1 war)? If the DH comes to NL, and Moose gets in shape, he could be a contributor. If Farmer doesnt hit, in goes Barrerro. Senzel becomes a super sub (plays all over the infield and outfield). Depth is a concern, injury histories tell us we need depth. That is my biggest concern. The Reds probably wont be world beaters, but they will score runs, and if the pitching is good, they will win more games than most here think. I at least will keep an open mind and see where we are at the all star break.
Have we not been assuming that since Mr C bought the club with all his promises? I think so. And has he yet netted a WS? Now we are back to the small market tactics with a muzzle on the mouth piece. Gonna be easy to not support the Reds this year and I may be following the Cards a bit more.
I’m with ya, a whole lot of hoping everyone stays healthy/has a bounce back season. Usually never happens that way though.
I agree, but fully expect that Barrero will get a good hard look at short–as the regular. Or maybe center. If he proves able to hit with some consistency, the situation is even better than the one you suggest. It certainly doesn’t seem as dire as many feel it is. For years, we’ve had people–quite reasonably–saying that the Reds need to get younger and develop more good players. It looks like that is what is happening now.
So, basically the same as the 83 win team from ’21 without Castellanos (3.2 bWAR), Miley (5.6 bWAR), Barnhart, and some relievers? Add Barrero (unknown impact), Friedl (no upgrade), and maybe Greene.
Guess that’s about a luke warm 78 win club if things go right, as has been discussed above. Good enough to keep fans interested for awhile, make some profit, and strip player prospect capital from the ’24 team.
I’m a glass half full guy, I’ll project 83 wins.
Add Stephenson getting many more at-bats. Barrero is an unknown quantity as a MLB hitter, but could chip away at the deficit. Lots of questions (Suarez, certainly) but the cupboard is far from bare.
Old men can’t play ball? Tell Mad Max that to his face.
I will not be on the “players side” if the MLBPA keeps trying to funnel all of the dollars into the top handful of players while allowing rookies to languish at minimum salary for 4+ years.
I see all of these massive contracts this year, and I know all of them would destroy the Reds. The only one that maybe, maybe makes sense is 3/130 for Scherzer. Very high AAV but short term might work. But 5/110 for Kevin Gausman, who was so amazing he was released by multiple teams 2 years ago? 6/140 for Javy Baez? 10 year contract for 27 year old Seager? We all wish Reds were trying to add and improve, but I think we all know those contracts would not end well for them.
Player’s union has got to find a way to even out the salary curve. Winker and Castillo above are the ones hurt… playing at all-star level, but stuck on year-to-year contract for a fraction of what free agents make. Union should push for higher AAV, shorter term contracts like NBA. MLB should not still be paying Albert Pujols for his production 8 years ago. The owners would still be spending the money, but with short contracts teams will have payroll free up more often and be paid to newer stars.
I am all in favor of high-revenue teams getting stuck with terrible contracts. The Albert Pujols contract (along with paying Josh Hamilton and others way too much) has crippled the Angels for years. How can you not like the Yankees’ being stuck with Gerritt “Spider Tack” Cole’s contract?
The stupidity of high-revenue teams is what gives the lower-revenue teams like the Rays and Reds a fighting chance. One of the great rules of life is that any entity — baseball teams, local governments, 23-year-olds, you name it — wastes money if it has too much of it.
Old-school is on target. No tanking but a test for Bell to beat the 2019 record (75-87) the next two years and an opportunity for Krall to see if he can get a good value trade out of Castillo or possibly even Joey. With most of the sunk costs (and manager) clear in two years, it still looks like the farm club prospects and emerging talent might be ready to be a force to be reckoned with given the right leadership in the 2024 season.
Well dont be surprised if the “give-a-way” trades continue till nobody wants to pay for the franchise.
This article about MLB using two different baseballs in 2021 is pretty interesting. Has some quotes from Doolittle and some data from a couple of balls Votto hit during his HR streak.
https://www.businessinsider.com/mlb-used-two-different-balls-in-2021-2021-11
Can’t imagine that’s going to make the negotiations with the players any easier.
Iglesias just signed 4 for $58million. And reds gave him away for nothing. Bob is an absolute idiot.
Bob might be, but the guy who signed Iglesias for that much might be an even bigger idiot.
A good comment by greenmtred. Iglesias was not so effective in his later Reds years and he seemed to feel he should only relieve when he had a chance to get a save. I agreed it was time for him to go elsewhere.
Still baffled by this move last season, then watching the bullpen cripple the Reds last season has made it even worse. Sell. Bob.
I think that this is going to be a very interesting story as more details come out:
1. I assume that MLB tracked which balls were being used for each game.
– Which stadiums were they used in, and how often.
– Who chose the games/sites for the specific balls.
– Were different balls used and have any effect in post season.
– etc., etc.
Once again, MLB has egg on its’ face.
Everyday that passes, the Reds cutting Miley loose looks worse.
James Paxton, and all of his 6 games started and 6.5+ ERA over the last 2 years got 1 year 10 million dollars. You can’t convince me that there would have been no market for Miley.
Paxton had TJ in April last year and won’t even be avail til mid-summer. But the club options on the deal and Paxton’s history give the Red Sox some upside with that contract. It’s not comparable to Miley.
The one that may be “somewhat” comparable to Miley is Cobb, 2/$20M with the Giants. That one makes Miley look more like market value.
I think the Reds were hasty by putting Miley in waivers, but ultimately they probably wouldn’t have gained much exercising and waiting for a return on trade. I’m ready to move on and give them a pass on that one, and see what they do with the rest of the offseason.
I was unaware of Paxton’s TJ. Still though, I think we can agree that Miley for nothing was a bad move.
The years under this ownership group will be labeled “The Era of Mediocrity.” Not just about money. It has has to do with a lack of baseball savvy.
Not sure why the Reds would waste time and money on Garrett and Senzel. One can’t pitch and the other can’t stay healthy. In Senzel’s case his numbers have never been good even when healthy and now the Reds have players who are better than him at each and every position he tries to play. Barrera, Farmer, and India are not scared of the former #1 beating them out. I say trade him for a bag of balls if that is all you can get. As far as Garrett, cut him loose, maybe a change of scenery will help.
What annoys me the most about this franchise is they just give away talent for nothing, and I’d be going out on a short limb here to say that it probably annoys you too. So why in the world would you just dump guys with talent when it only costs you 3.3MM?
Clint Frazier to the Cubs for $1.5mil. If the Reds can’t afford to take a flyer on a guy like this when they have an opening in their outfield, then ownership needs to sell the team. Gheesh!
Then again maybe the front office has somebody better in mind for the outfield.
I understand that I am in the minority on this, but I don’t really think that Miley’s contract was worth much in trade, despite his having some very strong moments last year. Miley was very good last year, in fact — until he wasn’t.
Miley now has an extended track record of wearing down completely later in the season. In the last 5 season, he has only been healthy in 3 of them, the odd years of 2017, 2019 and 2021. He pitched a very effective 80.2 innings in 2018 (for DJ in Milwaukee), and only pitched 15 innings in the Covid-restricted 2020.
In those 3 non-injury seasons, Miley has collapsed in September in each of them. In 2017 for Baltimore, Miley had 5 of his 32 starts in September and went 0-5 with a 9.74 ERA, while yielding an OPS of 1.006. In 2019 for the Astros, he had 5 of his 33 starts in September and went 1-2 and 16.68, while yielding a 1.205 OPS. (He only mustered 11.1 IP in 5 September starts and was left off the ALCS and WS rosters.) In this past year with the Reds, Miley went 1-3 and 8.35 in September, while yielding a 1.188 OPS.
His contract history shows that MLB teams have been skeptical of Miley’s durability. After the 2017 season, the Orioles paid $500,000 and declined his $12mm option, and Miley took until May 2018 to sign with the Brewers, where he eventually had a good half-season under Derek Johnson. He signed with the Astros in 2019 for one year for what turned out to be $5 million by his hitting performance incentives. The Astros, though, declined to offer him a renewal after his horrid September, and he signed with the Reds before 2020 for $6mm/$8mm + the $10mm option and $1mm buyout.
So, in very similar situations when Miley was finished by Labor Day and when he was younger than his now-35 years old, no team has offered him $10 million for a year. The Reds, then, were not unreasonable to believe that Miley’s market would not be $10 million this year, either. They saved $1 million by the Cubs’ claiming him, and I don’t think that they had a reasonable chance of doing a trade that netted them a prospect whose contract would be worth $1 million.
And, if the Reds exercised the option, they absorbed the risk of Miley’s getting hurt in spring training or in the off-season, and therefore of their having to eat $11 million. In that regard, bear in mind that the Reds have better medical information on Miley than all other 29 teams.
(Miley was good against the free-swinging Cubs, going 3-0, 2.40 in 5 starts, with an ERA a full run higher against the rest of the league. Cubs gonna Cub.)
Chances are Miley might start against the Reds on Opening Day.
If ownership just wants to make money, why don’t they sell the Reds to someone who seriously wants to own a baseball team and maybe get to the WS. Then take all that money and have fun and games investing in cyber$?
Seriously. Isn’t Castellini getting bored by now?