There’s a pretty big decision coming for Nick Castellanos. What he decides will be big for both him and for the Cincinnati Reds. Once the World Series is over players and teams will have five days to pick up or decline their options.
Nick Castellanos has a player option to decide on. If he picks it up he will remain with the Cincinnati Reds for both the 2022 and 2023 season and make $16,000,000 in each season. There is also a mutual option for the 2024 season for $20,000,000 that includes a $2,000,000 buyout if Castellanos were to choose to exercise the option but the Reds were to decline their side of it.
When it comes to money, it’s pretty simple: Nick Castellanos can either take a guaranteed $34,000,000 for the next two seasons (including the $2,000,000 buyout), with a possibility of $52,000,000 over three seasons, or he can try to get a better contract offer from someone else this offseason.
Given the season that he just came off of, one in which he hit .309/.362/.576 with 38 doubles, a triple, 34 home runs, 95 runs, and 100 RBI in 138 games played, it seems likely that he would indeed be able to get more money on the open market than he would by choosing to remain in Cincinnati by opting to return to play for his remaining deal.
However, sometimes things aren’t always as they seem. When Castellanos signed with the Reds he was coming off of a season in which he had hit .289/.337/.525 and was two years younger than he is now. While his current season he’s coming off of certainly was better overall, what Castellanos did after being traded to the Cubs midseason was not. In 225 plate appearances with Chicago he hit .321/.356/.646 and posted a 153 OPS+ (he was at a 136 OPS+ this season with Cincinnati).
With the combination of being two years older, and a very uncertain idea of what’s going to happen with the upcoming collective bargaining agreement that expires on December 1st – well after he must make his decision – there could be some reason, even financially, to remain with the Reds. Having $34,000,000 locked up moving forward for at least the next two seasons, and potentially having $52,000,000 over the next three seasons is nothing to sneeze at. It’s certainly possible that a team would be willing to top both of those numbers, too.
Of course, not everything is about money. Sure – a lot of it is. Not all money is equal, though. While many players aren’t going to live somewhere long term, so the cost of living probably doesn’t matter as much as it may if you or I were to move somewhere else for a job, taxes do matter to a point. Some states do not have income tax, and while players are only taxed in state for games played there (for example, the players for the Reds are taxed by the state of Ohio for the games played in the state, but taxed by the state of Pennsylvania when they play in Pittsburgh, etc.). For states with no tax, that can make a difference of accepting a similar deal and it actually being for “more money”, even if it’s not on the surface.
Back to the whole point that not everything is about money, though. The opportunity to compete for a World Series may matter. The organization and how you feel about it (players, coaches, staff, etc.) may matter. How your family likes the city and what it is that they like to do could matter, too.
When it comes to this very specific decision, if Nick Castellanos chooses to return to Cincinnati then the Reds will have decisions to make on how to allocate the payroll, but they’ll have right field and a middle of the order bat locked down.
If Nick Castellanos chooses to opt out and test free agency, then the Reds have multiple decisions to make. The first, which would seem to be an absolutely easy choice, would be to make a qualifying offer to Castellanos for $18,400,000 for one season. Depending on what kind of free agent deal he would sign, the Reds would pick up a 1st round or 2nd round draft pick. Assuming he wouldn’t re-sign with the Reds, they would also then have to figure out how to find a new right fielder. Whether that’s some sort of internal movement, a trade, or free agency to acquire someone.
In about two weeks we will know how most of this plays out. The decision will be made within that time frame. If Castellanos opts out we don’t know the plan for Cincinnati when it comes to how they’ll replace him immediately, but we will know that they have to figure it out and perhaps where they will be looking.
Between now and the end of the World Series we will continue to look at all of the options that are on the table for the Reds and players and try to present the different roads everyone could take and why each could make sense.
Doug, if he looks at tax rates it’s for sure he wouldn’t want to play in the NL WEST with wellover half his games in California but, if the Astros or Rangers offer It says Texas has no income tax.
Texas and Florida have no income tax. Certainly, he can sign with one of the teams in those states. I’m guessing he’d be very popular in Miami.
If I’m the Reds, I offer him extra years in cincy at close to his current annual salary. I don’t think the Reds can afford to add much more to his annual salary but they can easily extend him. Those last few “stinky” years would be well worth the next few all-star years.
To quote the Hawk — “He gone”
I think he will opt out. With the NL considering the designated hitter it will increase the market for his services. While I think he likes Cincinnati and the team maximizing your prime earning years is very important. Hope he comes back but I think he is gone.
If Castellanos declines free agency, my guess is Boras (his agent) sees Armageddon ahead in the CBA situation with the likelihood of an unpredictable and probably player unfriendly outcome.
I think you nailed it!!
This will be interesting to see how it plays out. Guaranteed 34 million (with buyout). Based on performance that would be a steal and normally I would say opt is all but guaranteed. Having said that there is so much uncertainty right now with a potential lockout/strike coming).
In the end I think he opts out and bets on himself
Expecting the worst (Castellanos leaving), hoping for the best. But the worst is doubly bad. Not only would the Reds lose a big bat and a strong clubhouse motivator, but they become even more lopsided at the plate. The Reds were very vulnerable to left handed pitching this year. To compete for a division title in 2022 they will need an improved Suarez, and a healthy India, Stephenson, Senzel, and Suarez AND another right handed impact bat to replace Nick C. I don’t trust the front office to acquire his replacement and come anywhere close to matching Castellanos’ production. The only possible saving grace would be an emergent Barrero – IF the Reds are smart enough to play him every day. I am sadly not optimistic about retaining Castellanos, finding a strong right handed replacement, or seeing Barrero at SS every game.
A starting SS who’s accomplished nothing is a scary thought and hopefully the Reds know it.
If they split him between cf and SS I could live with that but replacing Farmer with this kid now oh heck no
Kyle Farmer and all of his, uh, accomplishments of being a career utility player who has been the starter once in his life and been a below-average player. Yes there is no reason to replace a below-average player. Print the world series tickets now.
A starting second baseman (and hitting leadoff no less) who has accomplished nothing? What a scary… oh wait, nice Rookie of the Year trophies there Mr. India. That’s a very short sighted assessment. At one time that described literally every major leaguer. Kyle Farmer had a career year, and still couldn’t crack 90 with his OPS+. Barrero is by strong consensus a better glove at SS than Farmer, with a much higher upside at the plate. Go look at Barry Larkin’s first 600 at bats or so – he turned out okay. If Farmer was actually an above (or even average) Major league hitter then maybe I’m slow to replace him with an inexperienced rookie. But well below average? I’d give Barrero an extended chance to stick at SS every day and twice on Sundays.
To Frankie,your ignorance isn’t worth responding to
To CFD Berraro has had 2 chances in mlb and has failed twice.
I hope that Barrero becomes a great player for the Reds. And it’s true that all players, when they are just starting their MLB careers, have yet to accomplish anything at that level. A truism, actually. A few things to say about Farmer: This year was really his first chance as full-time starting shortstop, and he was playing a good part of the year with a difficult strain. Since Larkin was invoked, it’s worth remembering that he praised Farmer’s play all year. Is it necessary to belittle Farmer in order to make the case for Barrero? He saved the Reds’ bacon.
Burt – you could argue that Farmer had a whole year of chances and failed. OPS+ 86. We only accepted that because Suarez was even worse. I’d hardly call Barrero’s 2021 a real chance. To put it in perspective, Alex Blandino played in more than twice as many Reds games as Jose Barrero this year. But we can respectfully disagree. You’d prefer the surer thing of a decent Kyle Farmer. I’d prefer the less sure thing of a potentially much better Jose Barrero. Most major leaguers even the eventually great ones struggle very early in their careers, including Barrero obviously. That convinces you he’ll never be great. I don’t think he’s had any where close to enough regular playing time to convince me. I hope he’s the regular SS in 2022.
Interesting…bet on Barreo…can’t judge his potential with his limited playing time…but how long do you give him? This site is not kind to someone underperforming.
Green Mountain – I don’t mean to downplay the role Farmer played this year. On a team without a true SS he stepped up when Suarez was truly awful on defense and offense. He was clutch. But big picture he’s never been an above average major league hitter. I think Farmer serves the Reds best as a tough, versatile, utility guy who can fill in whenever and wherever needed without a huge dropoff in production. But it doesn’t make sense to waste that versatility by installing him at SS when the Reds have a true SS with a much higher offensive ceiling in Barrero. At the least I’d like to see Jose starting every day for a few months. Farmer will still get his playing time and help the Reds wherever injuries create a need.
I’d prefer that the better of the two start at shortstop. I was reacting to the bad-mouthing of Farmer: I base a good deal of my esteem for him on eye test, to be sure, and on the esteem of his teammates and Larkin. I think he was more valuable than his OPS+ alone indicates. He clearly is not the shortstop of the future, and Barrero should certainly have a generous chance to unseat him, but Farmer, playing injured, had a number of key hits and made a number of key plays for the Reds last year.
CFD3000, I should have read your additional comment before I wrote. I largely agree with your assessment.
Kyle Farmer had an OPS+ Of 86 this year. He’s not Babe Ruth! He has had one good month and one great month in his whole career. He’s 31 now. Do you really think he’s going to get better? Barrero should be the starter at SS next year. If he’s not, Bell should be fired! He’s not smart enough to run the team.
Adam Duval? He hasn’t been hurt & produced Bigly the last 2 seasons. Also a good defender – somehow playing CF 4 the World Series Braves?
I hope the Reds never make a contract like this again, 2 opt outs! That might have been the cheapest way to get a deal done, but it puts a lot of stress on the front office. It’s tough to have a plan when you sign a contract like that. I am crossing my fingers right now, get it done Nick.
I agree. If they do well and earn their contract, they are almost automatically gone. If they go the other way and play badly, then you are stuck with yet another bad contract. It is a no win situation for the Reds. Essentially, if they earn their contract, it is a one year deal. Covid and the short season is probably the only reason he didn’t opt out after last season. His stats wouldn’t justify it.
This contract on top of Moose’s and Akiyama doesn’t bode well for the front office in that regard. On the other hand, they have made some good decisions in scouting and drafting as well as BP pickups at the deadline.
I don’t mind the contract. The Reds trusted their scouting and received ample production for what they paid, thus far (he’s really been quite a steal to this point). Structuring the contract in this way did also let NC on himself for another shot at a “big” FA contract. While I see some of the downsides you (and many others) have mentioned, to date this deal has worked well for both sides. That’s what good contracts do–deliver good value to both parties.
I can see what you are saying, but it was essentially a one year contract. Covid wiped out any gain for the Reds in the first year. This past season was a bargain as you mentioned for the Reds.
Overall, I think the contract far favored NC rather than the Reds for the reasons mentioned in my other post. Hindsight is 20/20 and Moose is a perfect example of how you can get burned if you sign them for too long. It is much harder to cover your mistakes. Again, if you look at the NC deal as essentially a one year signing, then it was a good deal. Instead, it was billed as a multiyear signing with an option year. From that view, it was a bad signing because that was far from what it was.
I think this contract was a great idea. I don’t think Castellanos comes without the opt outs. I think the Reds should continue to follow this model to get good players to come to Cincinnati and increase their market value for a big payday. I have no problems with Castellanos using the Reds to help him with a big payday this winter. The Reds got plenty of value from him.
Just as important, the Reds should take this idea to other hitters in the market and suggest that their coming to Cincinnati would be great for their bottom line. Cincinnati provided Castellanos with said opportunity and look what happened for him. Castellanos will get this shiny new contract thanks to a .939 OPS. But point out to prospective FA that his OPS on the road was .772 and his OPS in GABP was 1.109 and hitters will understand that GABP is a great place to build market value.
Remind Corey Seager of the home and away splits for Castellanos and point out that his splits for 2021 were a .827 OPS on the Road vs. a .666 OPS at home.
Remind Mark Canha of the home and away splits for Castellanos and point out that his splits for 2021 were .684 on the road and .602 at home.
Remind Kyle Schwarber of the home and away splits for Castellanos and point out that he hits a HR in 8.6% of his AB at GABP and only 6.8% away from GABP with a OPS of .870 at GABP and an OPS of .834 away from GABP. These lopsided stats for Schwarber are with 0 games played in Cincinnati in his monster 2021 season.
Start using GABP as a means of bringing players here to build their resume.
Instead of the almost constant litany of negativity about GABP, it’s nice to see some positivity about the ballyard and the opportunity it presents good ML hitters to pad their stats in Cincinnati. It’s time to bring back a version of the hard hitting Redleg teams of the 1950’s at Crosley Field.
love it!!!
He was younger 2 years ago. The Reds’ offer was the best he received. He took the best offer that had 2 opt outs. In 2020 like most players his production declined. He stayed. In 2021 he hit really well at home with OPS of 1.109. Away from the friendly confines of GABP his OPS was 0.772. All of his stats decline away from GABP. I don’t know how to calculate his OPS+ for home and away but there is a drop. Maybe there is another park where he could duplicate his production at GABP. His RF defense seems to have improved… eye test no stats, but is he a guy who is built for GABP who will not be an all star in a different park? Is that a totally off the wall thought?
I tend to agree with you that his stats won’t be as good playing in another park. On the other hand I doubt he cares. He will be like most players taking all the extra millions and running.
Its not so much if he cares…its what the owner of other ballparks care.
Why do I have a feeling that, if Nick opts out, the Reds will replace him with Aquino and Naquin?
I don’t expect to see Aquino back with the Reds. He’s out of options and I just don’t see the Reds keeping a player on the 40-man roster that produced negative bWAR offensively and defensively. AA has had sufficient playing time. I think the Reds are smart enough to stop trying to chase a reprise of August 2019.
I agree. Maybe sign him to a minor league contract.
@Klugo, because that is very likely. He hasn’t earned a spot with his performance, but we have so many injury risk OF’s that you have to have someone available. If not him it would probably be a more expensive veteran FA, who has little upside. I would love for him not to crack the roster, (and I like AA) because that would mean we’ve made some sort of improvement.
Maybe Naquin…if they keep AA, it would be to platoon against lefties (for what that would be worth). But, they will have $16M to shop for someone else. What other potential FA outfielders are there (pls not an old one, like, say McCutchen).
I think the Reds will have to sweeten the deal or NC will opt out. I’d like to see them guarantee 2024 and offer an extension into 2025. There’s an amazing class of shortstops available this year and some pretty good starting pitchers, too–all should get big contracts. Kris Bryant will likely be more attractive on the market as he could play RF and bring more versatility than NC. I don’t think it will take a $100M contract to land NC, but the Reds need to make him a respectful offer. He seems to like it here and the Reds need his game-changing bat in the lineup–it’s a really nice fit for both sides.
I also hope they will sweeten his deal. He was a major cog in our offense and it will be hard to replace him even at less money. The money has to be within reason, but the Reds are at the point of moving forward not backward.
Castellanos made it clear when he signed with the Reds part of the reason was the Reds gave him the opportunity to be an everyday RF.
Castellanos wont sign somewhere to be a DH.
I could see the Astros, Braves or White Sox paying him big money during their winning windows. Its also being reported that a labor stoppage is a virtual certainty Dec 2.
Castellanos will want to move forward with the opportunity to leverage his 2021 season for a max contract as soon as the labor issues are resolved and go to an organization that is World Series material.
Would Castellano stay if we offered him a additional 4 million a year, but let the third year stand-he could take the third year at 20 million, or take a 2 million dollar buyout after the second year. He’d only be 31, and if he has two more huge years, he will still be in his prime if he elects to leave. 8 million is a lot of money, but it would probably match up with what he would get in free agency. I hope we offer it, and ,of course, I hope he takes the deal.
That is my line of thinking. If we pay him an additional 4-6 million a year, would he stay? We probably would have to extend the contract.
Nick has said himself he is worried about the CBA. There is 90% chance of work stoppage and financial issues ahead. Castellanos would in my opinion take 20 million for two years and a third year player option of 20 million with a small buyout and rest easy. I could easily see this happening.
No one in the business thinks there’s anywhere near a 90% chance of a work stoppage ahead.
My guess is Castellanos opts out and the Reds extend the QO but don’t go out of their way to re-sign him. I think his departure will likely doom Barrero to CF with the others shifting to right. Unless the Reds surprise me, I’m not optimistic about 2022. Implicit in Doug’s write up is the GABP effect on his stats and Wrigley before that. He’s smart enough to know the park is a major factor. Let’s hope that plays in somewhere and protects the Reds from their own negligence.
I think we all are anxiously awaiting the signal the Reds send up as far as contending in the future. I think that signal indicates how well the majority of the fans lend their support in the future.
+500
The only consolation to this season is that the Cards nor the Dodgers are in the World Series.
Doomed to centerfield. A grim fate.
I will donate $100 to a charity of Doug’s choice if Castellanos does not opt out. With baseball being a business, and given the year he had, it would seem odd (but celebratory) that Nick would not opt out.
I can see him accepting it, but I dont think its likely. I’ve gone from a 0% chance to something like a 15% chance in the past few months. I can see him accepting the QO too. Would still be surprised by either, he’s likely gone.
Here is a thought for folks who think Nick C is not going to opt out. The only world in which he might do worse than declining to opt out is if there is a long CBA lockout that ends on disastrous terms for the players.
Even if it is a heartfelt desire and intent to stay with the Reds, logically, in subsequent negotiations they are not going to offer him less than the contract he just walked away from.
His worse case scenario would be to wait and take the QO which is $2.4m more than he would make under the current contract in 2022 and leave him in a position to become a free agent after 2022.
Hopefully, the Reds have realized this and reached out to him with an offer that starts with at least $18.4m for 2022 and builds from there, although doubt that would make any difference in his decision to test the waters.
Makes sense.
Nick is mindful of the CBA. He himself has mentioned it. I could see the Reds giving him 20 million for two years and a third year player option of 20 million with a small buyout. Nick might take that with the uncertainty ahead.
95% chance of work stoppage here. Winter labor meetings have already been cancelled. Players want a BIG Change. They have walked away from the negotiating table at this point, literally.
No meetings have been cancelled. No one has walked away from the table. Where are you getting this stuff from?
I think Nick will opt out but I don’t see it as a terrible outcome – as long as the money free-ed up by him leaving gets spent elsewhere. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love Nick C. to opt in as I loved watching him play but I don’t agree with improving the offer. The more cost-conscience teams that make the playoffs routinely prove that you don’t need 2-3 massively paid players to compete in the MLB – especially offensive players.
The Athletics, Giants, Braves, and White Sox are competing by paying decently for a few offensive players – but never these $20-30 million AAV contracts – platooning their outfielders, DH, and one or more of their corners, and having a lock down bullpen. Don’t get me wrong, they pay for performance – just not these ridiculous AAV and long term contracts that are so risky. If Nick C. can’t play for < $20M per year then I'd be happy with the Reds getting 1-2 right handed free agent outfielders and 2 very good late inning relievers with the money saved. Improve 3 positions for the cost of locking down 1 very good player. Get several 2 WAR players instead of going after 4-6 WAR players. Replace AA, Shogo, Senzel, Lorenzen, Wilson, and Givens.
Under such scenario where Castellanos opts out, the OF picture will be very dark. Adding two under performers players (Akiyama and Aquino) and three often-injured players (Naquin, Winker and Senzel), front office will have to be very creative to come with a reliable roster.
Aquino hasn’t underperformed he simply isn’t a good player
Through terrible drafts and trades the outfield will be in shambles and they will be trying to say how great the team will be
True. The FA market has Garcia , Chris Taylor and Starling Marte. All might price themselves out of the Reds range. If NC leaves the Reds will almost be forced into trading a starter for a RH hitting OF who makes less money.
add in Duvall, Pham, Canha, Villar, Soler and Mccutcheon and I believe 1 or 2 of these will be available for the Reds. There are simply too many decent free agent outfielders this year. Supply will exceed demand but it won’t be free. Several of these guys will have offers of 5-10$M annually. I don’t think any will get $15-20 million offers – unless the Dodgers get silly.
I’m in the minority but still convinced he’s going to take the guaranteed money and will stay with the Reds. Some of his comments lead me to believe he’s happy in Cincy both from a family standpoint and that his skills work well in this ballpark. He certainly understands that if he opts out that’s a good chance he won’t have a new contact until after the labor standoff which might not be resolved until before the 2023 season with no baseball in 2022.
I am hopeful the Reds and NC renegotiate his contract before or after his opting out. That is sort of meeting in the middle for both sides.
The chances there’s no 2022 season are almost non-existent. The overwhelming belief in the industry is that things will be settled before spring training is even set to begin.
I will be shocked if there is a lockout/strike. Both sides know whats at stake.
Especially after the owners claim they took an absolute bath in 2020.
I agree, but never underestimate Rob Manfred’s ability to bollix things up.
I think both sides can sense the atmospherics well enough to know that now is just not the time for an in-season stoppage. It will make for a wild February, though, if no real player decisions can be in December and January.
I do not doubt this but it is going to be one wacky and ultimately crazy off season till things are settled. There are already rumblings today that the winter meeting’s will be scratched. My guess is this means the tender date which typically falls just after Dec 1 would almost certainly be held in suspense to with a resulting freeze to arbitration. That of course begs the question of whether arb would follow the old rules or new rules coming out of the new CBA.
I think you are optimistic with the winter labor meetings already being cancelled. The players have walked away from the table at this point. I could easily see a shortened 2022.
The meetings haven’t been cancelled.
I agree with you. I think NC will play out his contract with the Reds, the reasons being he’s comfortable with the team and the ballpark and sees, especially with the young pitching, a chance to be on a winner. And his family likes Cincy, which is big but not too big. But the Reds will have to sweeten the pot to make it happen.
My comment was a reply to Gonzo Reds.
Yeah why would we want Adam Duvall? .175 with nobody on base but over .300 with risp! Strict analytics kids would tell you that its all random and clutch hitting isn’t real. All I know is he gets a ton of big hits and he did it in Miami/Atlanta which are 2 of the biggest parks in the NL.
Led the NL in rbis which again rbis are random and don’t matter. Idk? The game is scored by runs scored and he drove in more then anyone else in the NL. He didn’t even have that many guys get in scoring position in Miami and he still capitalized on opportunities. Oh and he led the NL in assists when he was with the Reds. I’d take him back in a heartbeat as long as its not a 4 year deal or something.
I’ll take the middle road here by trying to offer a possible explanation which fits both sides.
Having men on base, especially in scoring position impacts how most pitchers pitch. They have less margin for error. All but the very best are going to be more likely to leave a more hittable pitch in the hitting zone of a guy like Duvall. Maybe they throw a fatter fastball or a breaking pitch gets seriously hung. Whichever, Duvall pounces.
Too often we miss this as Reds followers because the Reds hitters are often situationally insensitive. They get themselves out chasing bad pitches even when the count is in their favor.
On the other hand, think about how often Reds pitchers fritter away count advantages then end up having to throw a really good pitch to avoid the risk of walking a guy only to have that pitch be “too good” and get blown away.
Good logic Jim.
I have mixed emotions on the Castellanos decision.
On one hand, Nick’s home/away spilts are concerning. He isn’t much better than an average hitter on the road. Should the Reds offer an expensive, long term contract to a player who is average half of the time?
On the other hand, Nick Castellanos is an outstanding hitter at GABP. I think he is the one player who is truly irreplaceable for the Reds.
Without Nick’s bat in the line up it’s hard to see this team competing for a WC spot, let alone a division title, next year.
I think if the Reds are able to retain Nick Castellanos they have a shot at the play-offs in 2022, especially if MLB adds a couple more wild card teams.
If Nick signs elsewhere, the Reds will not compete next season and the front office needs to move to the next re-build.
Worst case scenario, and the scenario which i think is most likely to happen, Nick C. will walk and the Reds front office will delude itself that the team can still compete. The Reds will finish in fourth place and it will be a wasted year.
The outcome of the Reds 2022 season will be determined in a couple of weeks. How often does that happen in early November?
I’ll take an average LEFT handed hitter on the road. That is a real commodity.
The front office needs an exit strategy when Castellanos leaves. Maybe it takes 2 players to replace him. Look what the Braves did when they lost Acuna for the season. Duvall and others are stepping up for the Braves, Nick will be missed but the Reds can improve their defense and use the money ball philosophy to try replacing his production in hitter friendly ball park. Just don’t trade any of your starting pitching,
Is it just me but wouldn’t you all be terrified of losing $34 million guaranteed money in between the time he opted out and possibly signed with another team? What if he had a freak accident or a sudden health problem? I know MLB players live in another world than the rest of us but……man. Can you imagine? He’d still be 31 or 32 and probably still hitting well. He can take the guaranteed money and still maybe land a one year BIG contract. Maybe multiple years. Worse case scenario he’s still got $34 MILLION dollars….I’d stay.