There’s a pretty big decision coming for Nick Castellanos. What he decides will be big for both him and for the Cincinnati Reds. Once the World Series is over players and teams will have five days to pick up or decline their options.
Nick Castellanos has a player option to decide on. If he picks it up he will remain with the Cincinnati Reds for both the 2022 and 2023 season and make $16,000,000 in each season. There is also a mutual option for the 2024 season for $20,000,000 that includes a $2,000,000 buyout if Castellanos were to choose to exercise the option but the Reds were to decline their side of it.
When it comes to money, it’s pretty simple: Nick Castellanos can either take a guaranteed $34,000,000 for the next two seasons (including the $2,000,000 buyout), with a possibility of $52,000,000 over three seasons, or he can try to get a better contract offer from someone else this offseason.
Given the season that he just came off of, one in which he hit .309/.362/.576 with 38 doubles, a triple, 34 home runs, 95 runs, and 100 RBI in 138 games played, it seems likely that he would indeed be able to get more money on the open market than he would by choosing to remain in Cincinnati by opting to return to play for his remaining deal.
However, sometimes things aren’t always as they seem. When Castellanos signed with the Reds he was coming off of a season in which he had hit .289/.337/.525 and was two years younger than he is now. While his current season he’s coming off of certainly was better overall, what Castellanos did after being traded to the Cubs midseason was not. In 225 plate appearances with Chicago he hit .321/.356/.646 and posted a 153 OPS+ (he was at a 136 OPS+ this season with Cincinnati).
With the combination of being two years older, and a very uncertain idea of what’s going to happen with the upcoming collective bargaining agreement that expires on December 1st – well after he must make his decision – there could be some reason, even financially, to remain with the Reds. Having $34,000,000 locked up moving forward for at least the next two seasons, and potentially having $52,000,000 over the next three seasons is nothing to sneeze at. It’s certainly possible that a team would be willing to top both of those numbers, too.
Of course, not everything is about money. Sure – a lot of it is. Not all money is equal, though. While many players aren’t going to live somewhere long term, so the cost of living probably doesn’t matter as much as it may if you or I were to move somewhere else for a job, taxes do matter to a point. Some states do not have income tax, and while players are only taxed in state for games played there (for example, the players for the Reds are taxed by the state of Ohio for the games played in the state, but taxed by the state of Pennsylvania when they play in Pittsburgh, etc.). For states with no tax, that can make a difference of accepting a similar deal and it actually being for “more money”, even if it’s not on the surface.
Back to the whole point that not everything is about money, though. The opportunity to compete for a World Series may matter. The organization and how you feel about it (players, coaches, staff, etc.) may matter. How your family likes the city and what it is that they like to do could matter, too.
When it comes to this very specific decision, if Nick Castellanos chooses to return to Cincinnati then the Reds will have decisions to make on how to allocate the payroll, but they’ll have right field and a middle of the order bat locked down.
If Nick Castellanos chooses to opt out and test free agency, then the Reds have multiple decisions to make. The first, which would seem to be an absolutely easy choice, would be to make a qualifying offer to Castellanos for $18,400,000 for one season. Depending on what kind of free agent deal he would sign, the Reds would pick up a 1st round or 2nd round draft pick. Assuming he wouldn’t re-sign with the Reds, they would also then have to figure out how to find a new right fielder. Whether that’s some sort of internal movement, a trade, or free agency to acquire someone.
In about two weeks we will know how most of this plays out. The decision will be made within that time frame. If Castellanos opts out we don’t know the plan for Cincinnati when it comes to how they’ll replace him immediately, but we will know that they have to figure it out and perhaps where they will be looking.
Between now and the end of the World Series we will continue to look at all of the options that are on the table for the Reds and players and try to present the different roads everyone could take and why each could make sense.