Happy Schrocktober everyone! The Cincinnati Reds (82-77) will begin their final series of the 2021 season tonight at 6:35 PM against the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-100). The Reds are coming off an ugly series at the White Sox, where the Reds were outscored 13-2 in the two game series. The Reds would like to finish their already winning season with a strong final weekend.
The Reds are 12-4 against the Pirates this season. The Reds have not won 14 games against the Pirates in a season since 1957.
Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo will look to complete a strong finish to his 2021 season tonight. Castillo has a 2.77 ERA since June 1st, and his 3.2 fWAR over that span is the 11th best among all MLB pitchers. Castillo has a career 2.35 ERA in 11 starts against the Pirates, but a 4.95 ERA in 4 starts at PNC Park. Surprisingly, Castillo has not faced the Pirates since his second start of the season on April 7th. He shutout the Pirates over 7 innings, allowing just 4 hits, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts.
Castillo can get his season ERA below 4 with 4.2 innings or more of 1 ER or less. If he allows 2 ER, he would have to go 7.2 innings to keep it under 4. Castillo has not had his season ERA below 4 at any point this season.
Wil Crowe has made 24 starts this season for the Pirates. He has not made it through five innings in 13 of those starts. His only start against the Reds this season on August 4th did not go well: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 3 HR. Crowe has the 4th worst HR/9 of any pitcher in MLB with 100+ IP this season.
Starting Lineups
1. Jonathan India (2B)
2. Max Schrock (LF)
3. Nick Castellanos (RF)
4. Joey Votto (1B)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Kyle Farmer (SS)
7. Tucker Barnhart (C)
8. Jose Barrero (CF)
9. Luis Castillo (P)
UPDATE: 5:58 PM: Kyle Farmer scratched from the lineup
Kyle Farmer was scratched from the lineup with left ab soreness. Jose Barrero now starting at SS. #Reds pic.twitter.com/DMf2bPBQdK
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) October 1, 2021
Conclusion
83 wins feels like a better season than 82 wins. 84 wins feels like a better season than 83 wins. 85 wins……well, you get the picture. Sure, the results of this series don’t mean anything really, but when you look back on this team, it would be nice to see this team more than one game over .500. It is also always nice to continue the domination of the Pirates. We will all be wishing for some baseball come January. So kick back, relax and enjoy the last weekend of the season. Go Reds!
Glad to see Barrero starting again but he should be at SS. Stephenson should also be starting. Let the vets sit
What do you suppose the over/ under is on the Reds opening day 2022 OF being Barerro in CF flanked by Winker and Naquin? Maybe Matt McClain will have an all universe run in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training to become Farmer’s foil at SS next year?
Farmer is the “feel good” story David Bell can’t/won’t get away from. Barrero is quicker, has better range, and a better arm. Period. But….:)
We all love farmer
Hes been scratched tonite.
My concern is Reds plan for 2022 is field the cheapest team with Suarez at 3b votto at 1b and moose DH and Akiyama 5 th OF . Castellanos leaves and plug the holes internally from there. Barrero CF is insurance and cheap and depth with cheap senzel if healthy and cheap farmer and india and stephenson cheap up the middle . Naquin cheap in RF
Reds FO
Had a bad off-season cost cutting in 2021. Why would we expect different?
@OS> Agree about Farmer. My gripe is not with him but how he has been used. There were plenty of opportunities for him as SuperSub which could have helped the team even more if hadn’t been anchored at SS.
And given the team they had this year, he definitely needed to be playing (somewhere) versus LH pitching which he does quite well against (.789 OPS/ equivalent OPS+ 113)
Saw an article today with the LVP ( least valuable player). The Two main NL players were Francisco Lindor and Didi Gregorious. In the AL two main players were Andrelton Simmons and Gleyber Torres. Funny 4 guys a lot of people here were screaming for .Thank goodness we ended up being stuck with Kyle Farmer.
I don’t know about the others, but Lindor has 3.2 WAR this season. When I last checked, Farmer’s WAR was hovering around 1.0 for the season. Even with Lindor dealing with an oblique injury, he has still been 3 times more valuable than Farmer, whose WAR suggests he’s barely a replacement-level player.
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
Like the Reds could afford to pay Lindor. Farmer has done an outstanding job at SS and can hit. Period.
That Farmer exceeded expectations is not the same as saying he’s been outstanding. Adequate but below average. But he’s the kind of player Bell likes and since the Reds FO thinks Bell is “the guy”, I guess it’s the fans that once again will be on the losing end of the bargain.
@Jimbo44
Suspect Lindor’s salary vs output is what got him onto that list.
Farmer is fine vs LH pitching but not so much so versus RH pitching.
Except the nearest thing the Reds had for a plan was to be stuck with Eugenio Suárez at SS and Kyle Farmer to be the super sub or alternately the “3rd catcher” on ice at AAA making $175K on the split contract they forced him into by non-tendering him last December.
Kyle Farmer c
1 year/$640,000 (2021)
1 year/$640,000 (2021)
re-signed by Cincinnati as a free agent 12/2/20 (split contract with salary of $175,000 in minors)’
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/
No. Tell me about 85 wins. Just kidding. Good job Nick. Here’s to hoping India reaches 100 runs and Votto and Casty reach 100 RBI. As far as Suarez getting to .200. I’m glad hes’ hitting better but I think I would be embarrassed to have people talking about that if I were him.
You’re in luck with your “it would be nice” to see the Reds finish more than one game over .500. With 82 wins already, the worst they can be is 82-80, which is more than 1 game over .500.
We need to talk Nick into recording and posting a karaoke of the Beach Boys’ “Wouldn’t It Be Nice?” with lyrics about the Reds! It would be a great off season project! 😉
I like it! Make it happen Nick….
I’ve already got a good 1st couplet; and, a lot of the rest could almost be single word substitutions at the strategic/ needed spots
Wouldn’t it be nice to make the playoffs
Then we wouldn’t need to wait so long
To see the Reds win the world series
and prove the critics wrong.
but how about that comeback last night.
I generally expect the worst from the Red’s front office and they usually deliver. If they replace Nick with “internal” candidates it would be just what I would expect.
I suppose they may fool us and somehow acquire a poor man’s Nick Castellanos. I’m not sure who that would be, but far less than the real deal.
Maybe they could sign Greg Vaughn or even Gary Sheffield. He is swinging the bat well these days 🙂
https://youtu.be/lHFfcqqvmPU
I am by no means a a Bell supporter, but I give credit when credit is due. I love positional flexibility I think Berrios is our shortstop but I love the fact they put him in centerfield it is something nice to know down the road. I always thought Billy Hamilton value would of been so much greater if they didn’t tag him as a centerfielder he should of played ss and 2nd base with the Reds
John Sadack emphasized need to sweep series to finish the season with a winning record on the road. As if thats remotely relevant
Chris Welsh then said I wonder how many Reds players know that.
Jim day and reds announcers now using Phil Castellini marketing talking points on incredible Naquin season 2021 and role next year.
Meet your new cheap starting Castellanos RF replacement
Write it down
RLN loves to label Senzel as injury prone and while I like Naquin… hes the President and card carrying member of the injury prone club.
Yet- looking like Plan A in RF in 2022
This is
God, I hope you’re wrong. I know you’re right.
Great response, I don’t think the players know or care. That was a nice double play, I would like to see the bats wake up a little before I watch Iowa and Maryland play in a game that means something.
My guess is the players are thinking more about their travel plans home next week than they are about the 2021 road won/loss record.
+500
Based on one hit thru 4 innings by our pitcher its highly probable you are correct.Castillo better spend some money at Christmas on the hitters cause they sure didn’t help him this season.Kind of figured these last 3 games would help some Reds pad their stats some but well you know.
Castillo looks like he’s battling to me. Not very sharp or efficient.
But that gunning down Alford worked.
Welsh just obliterated Sadack again
Tucker throws out a no name for the 5th time this year. Sadack says no reds catcher has done that since bo diaz threw out Will clark 5x
Huh??? Who cares?
Welsh then says clark stole 4 bases that year and got thrown out 7x
What was Will Clark thinking
You cant make this up from Sadack
Haha Now that is funny. lol
+1,000
Welsh doubles down
Sadack says how do u handle the bullpen the last series? Do i get guys in in the game and ket them finish the season
Welsh – you play to win the game like always
Cy Crowe just sounds odd doesn’t it.Keep swinging and harder if you can.
Wow, you have to give Bell credit it looks like his team is going to play hard until the bitter end. LOL
Castillo has our only hit and pitchers don’t hit next year. We could be in trouble. 🙂
Even in this kind of game, the Reds don’t helping Castillo with run support… Will Crowe has 5.00 + ERA but he is throwing a 1-hitter shutout
Lead off triple and a groundout and the game is over.WOW
Theres an off season to talk about this but I think SP in 2022 is suspect
Castillo and Mahle are entering their prime
Sonny gray is fading fast
After Alex Wood 2019 and miley 2020… i dont trust Miley health at 10 mil in 2022
Id go back after Disco and find a cheaper lefty . Greene and lodolo can step in at Memorial day if ready
I have thought the same about Disco. I might also bring back Casali and play Stephenson more at 1B and Votto at DH or vice versa. As hard as it is, they need to just cut bait with Moose.
Barrero is not taking advantage of this chances, He isn’t contributing to his own cause so this way don’t get Bell’s confidence …
Haha Hard to stay sharp on your in game double play flips from CF.
SO glad we had barreros defensive prowess on display there, turned a DP into a near first and third, if not for quick work by the Replay guy. 2Ks as well…. oh yea….sooooo much better then Farmer
Right over Geno’s head. Lucky Gamel made his mistake.
Geno made zero effort.
Didn’t even try and jogged by the bad.
Welsh mentioned byproduct of the shift and no roles at 2b.
This is a poor game.
Reds non Castillo line up1-20 and that was a Suarez blooper
Wouldn’t you think there would be a level of embarrassment on the umpires part considering how many calls they miss.
Unmitigated arrogance. That’s the only explanation that makes sense to me. That and zero accountability.
But…is it still a miss if it is corrected on review?
It is on the one making the original call. If that’s not important still than why do we have base umpires.
This could have been an inmaculated relief from Sims… couldn’t be?
The Reds are swinging and missing a lot tonight, boy the Pirates have a great staff.
Reds finishing strong.Can you smell it Bob?Bell is the man to lead this team for sure.Is anybody awake in the Reds dugout?If so send them out for more coffee and doughnuts.
Cole Tucker is singlehandedly killing us tonight
Reds have checked out in a big way.
Look at that sub 4.00 pitcher Luis Castillo lol
Yeah, and he would have a much better W/L record if the Reds would have scored more runs for him this year.
It’s puzzling to me how some pitchers just do not receive much run support. It must be some type of psychological thing among some teams.
The one thing Bell will never be accused of is being a motivator, Mr. excitement he is not.
Nope. Tinker is almost expressionless.
Well Max Schrocktober tied it up
Chalk that run up to Schrock’s speed to second base.
Sorry: Friedl’s speed.
You mean TJ. His speed and the dropped foul tip.
Nice job, TJ and Max
Don’t understand why Tyler Stephenson is a role player.
Maybe the single worst Reds Fo/managerial mistake of 2021 that this guy only plays occasionally.
Because the money plays for Tinker and the FO
And +10,000
Don’t forget TySteve coming up cold and putting it into play.
Wins arent the best metric for pitchers but this is likely Amir Garrett’s last chance to win 1 game in an entire season. Who predicted that?
How fitting. But he just had a bad April and has been fine since.
David Bell is the manager of misfit toys today. Let’s play everyone out of position and pretend it doesn’t matter
Suarez is a SS
Moose at 290 pounds is a 3b
Barrero is a CF
Stephenson is a LF
Why?
David Tinker Bell
He is the worst manager I can remember the Reds having in the last 60+ years. This team is in shambles. It lacks direction and at least for me is very difficult to watch at this point.
They thought Moose could play 2B when they signed him.
Well mike has noone to blame but himself as he is bleeding money off that FA contract next year with this garbage
I do hope this is the last time we get to “count on AG”. And possibly Lorenzen as well. Not thrilled with either.
This game is another Bell special. Sure glad they re-signed him.
Per stat cast , Lorenzen has thrown 22 pitches. Only 3 over 95 mph
He’s throwing cutters and sliders and sinkers and change ups and only (3) 4 seam fastballs.
6 years and still doesn’t know who he is. A 5 pitch reliever.
Or Lorenzen is not 100%. Or he is tired of fighting with his catcher over what to throw. Recall the mid August game in Phillie when he just stood there and stared down TB till he got the pitch calls he wanted.
That inning in Phillie turned out to be one of the most successful high leverage innings of the season for the Reds bullpen in what was one of the highest leverage games and series to that point of the season. It was the 7th inning with the Reds leading 4-3. The outs in the inning were made by Segura, Realmuto and Gregorius sandwiching a careful pitch around of Harper. The Reds then scored 3 times in the 8th to salt the game away and secure a series win.
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/reds-vs-phillies/2021/08/15/632891#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=play-by-play,game=632891
Agree.
And that pretty much wraps it for tonight. Won’t be able to watch tomorrow or Sunday. Y’all have made this last stretch way more bearable.
+5,983,216 to Doug and crew. I’m out of points for 2021.
I hope both Lorenzen and Garrett are both gone. They need to get rid of as much of the old blood as possible.
alot of people worried about there overs just got taken care of
I agree feels like a 3 to 4 year broken record with both of those 2……Knowing Bob C. Lorenzen will be a guy they pay.
Maybe. Juuuuusssst maybe, Suarez will reach the Mendoza line this year. He’s getting close and I hope he makes it.
its possible….