Final R H E
Chicago Cubs (64-76) 3 8 0
Cincinnati Reds (74-66) 4 10 0
W: Miley (12-5) L: Sampson (0-2) S: Givens (6)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

The Cincinnati Reds needed a their offense to get jump started and a big outing from Wade Miley.

The Reds got both tonight.

The Reds had failed to score first in nine consecutive games entering tonight. Jonathan India hit a home run to leadoff the game to change that.

Two batters later, Nicholas Castellanos homered as well.

Wade Miley was vintage Wade. He dominated the Cubs over seven brilliant innings at Wrigley Field.

Mike Moustakas and Kyle Farmer drove in huge insurance runs in the 8th. Mychal Givens closed the door in the 9th for a huge win. All eyes turn to San Diego as the Reds move to 0.5 games back with 22 games to play.

Biggest Play of the Game


According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Mike Moustakas RBI single with 2 outs in the 8th inning, giving the Reds a 3-1 lead (runners on 1st & 2nd)That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 12.1% (from 74.1% to 86.2%).

Player of the Game


Wade Miley: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K.

Miley is just incredible. He dominated the Cubs over 7.0 innings. The only run that he allowed was a solo home run that was only a home run at Wrigley and no other ballpark in MLB. Miley now has a 2.89 ERA on the season. Miley’s $10 million option next year is looking like a steal after Charlie Morton signed a 1-year, $20 million extension yesterday.

Positives 

Jonathan India hit a big leadoff home run (19) to allow the Reds to take a deep breath. He later doubled to cap off a great night.

Nick Castellanos hit his 27th home run of the season in the first inning. He tied his career high in home runs in 2019.

Kyle Farmer had a great night for the Reds. He drove in what proved to be the winning run in the 8th, and made an incredible over the shoulder catch that proved to save the game. Farmer’s incredible catch came with a 2-run lead, but the next batter hit a solo home run.

Mike Moustakas drove in a huge insurance run in the 8th. The Cubs intentionally walked Votto in front of Moose with 2 outs, so that had to feel really good for him.

Negatives

Michael Lorenzen gave up a pair of solo home runs. He is having his first rough stretch of 2021. He did not allow a run in first 12 appearances of the season, but has allowed 7 runs over his last 5 appearances. In fairness to Lorenzen tonight, the home runs that he allowed tonight are probably doubles in just about every other park.

Not so random thoughts…………….

Wade Miley is just cut from a different cloth. He had pitched six brilliant innings at Wrigley Field and was standing in the on-deck circle. The camera caught Wade just having a casual conversation with Cubs fans while taking practice hacks.

Up Next:

Reds at Cubs
Wednesday, 7:40 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Vladimir Gutierrez (4.17 ERA/4.31 xERA) vs Alec Mills (4.25 ERA/4.55 xERA)

53 Responses

  1. CI3J

    This was much needed. Reds really can’t afford to squander their chances to get wins against terrible teams.

    1-1 so far in their 16 games against the Cubs, Pirates, and Nats. If the Reds don’t win at least 10 of those games, they have no business being in the playoffs, either.

    Reply
  2. DaveCT

    Please remember to pick up his option.

    “That’s a lot for a No. 4 starter.

    That’s nothing for Wade Miley as tour no. 4.

    Reply
    • Hotto4Votto

      He’s a steal at that price if he pitches like he has this season.

      Reply
  3. Slicc50

    What a crazy sport baseball is. Ian Happ has hit 1/4 of his 81 career HR’s against the Reds!

    Reply
    • RedsMonk65

      Wow. I knew it was a lot, but did not think it was that much. Maybe we should acquire him. At least then he wouldn’t beat us.

      Reply
  4. LT

    Wade is great as expected, but boy those 2-out ribbies by Moose and Farm proved pivotal. Good teams add on lead. Good teams lock in and get 2-out ribbies. Reds are not a good team, but sometimes good luck strikes.

    Lorenzen is gonna be Lorenzen.

    Jack Mayfield, come to cincy and I’ll treat you to Greaters, best ice cream in the world!

    Reply
  5. SteveO

    Cheering for the Angels against the Padres tonight and former players in the Reds organization Packy Naughton(5),Jimmy Herget(2)and Raisel Iglesias(1)combined for 8 of the 9 shutout innings in the 4-0 victory.

    Reply
  6. Hanawi

    Reds tied again for the WC lead. Doesn’t seem like any of the five teams vying for the 2nd WC are capable of running away with it. Unless the Reds completely fall apart should at least be in it until the end.

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      My guess is at least one is going to get onto a run of some length. Actually, the Phillies have been having a pretty good go with just a couple of stumbles. They might just slip past the Braves, so keep an eye on the Reds record vs Atlanta’s record too.

      Reply
  7. CI3J

    Pads get one more “easy” game against the Angels tomorrow, then the rest of their schedule is all Dodgers (6), Giants(10), Braves(3), Cardinals(3).

    Pads will be lucky to go .500 from here on out.

    Reply
    • Barryh

      Only problem is the Reds are not currently playing .500 ball.
      They still have to win ALL remaining series to avoid being caught from behind.

      Reply
      • CI3J

        Depends on what arbitrary starting point you use. They are currently .500 in their 16 game “easy” stretch, although it’s only been 2 games so far. They really should win at least 10 of those 16, and go .500 in their eight remaining “hard” games against the Dodgers(3), Cards(3), and White Sox(2.) That would be 14 wins, which will probably be more than the Pads will get from their schedule.

        I’m more worried about the Phillies now, honestly.

    • Hotto4Votto

      The Padres are 73-65 accounting for 138 games. I had to do some digging with their schedule as there is only 23 games listed. At first I thought it may set up a forced make up game if teams were within a half game at the end. I found that in the Braves series, they will resume a suspended game that the Padres are up 5-4 in the 5th. So, they actually have 4 games vs the Braves remaining (or 3 and a half).

      Reply
  8. TR

    Miley does it again. A good night for the Reds in the WC2 chase. Very important to take series today and then on to St. Louis with an upbeat.

    Reply
  9. Redsvol

    Bullpen remains a weakness. That would have been a fairly easy win without the 2 homers in the 8th. Lorenzen seams incapable of pitching a clean inning. I think he’s more suited to start somewhere else than come back as member of 2022 bullpen. Guess it will depend on his free agent market which might be strong considering he’s going to be one of the youngest out there. Someone will pay him more than he’s worth.

    Reply
  10. Hotto4Votto

    Good to get back to winning ways, and back in a tie for the WC. Essentially every game here on out is a play-in game, got to treat it as such. Glad to see Givens lock it down in the 9th. Great effort by Miley.

    Reply
  11. Arthur

    Mikey is fourth – in all of baseball – in WAR. Not among just the Reds, not among just pitchers – but in all of Major League Baseball.

    Picking up his option for next season should be the simplest personnel move ever, unless he blows out his shoulder in the next 3 weeks. $10 million for this guy is as good a deal as you will ever find.

    However, playing Barrero at SS is also a pretty easy decision, and they have cocked that up, so …. never ever underestimate the front office’s capacity to blow easy decisions.

    Reply
    • MBS

      Miley is a no brainer. The Reds really need to be serious about getting Castellanos back to. If Castellanos doesn’t pick up the option, the Reds better have a legitimate offer ready for him.

      Reply
      • Arthur

        Yup. I bet it will cost a pretty penny to re-up Nick. Certainly more than the $16 million on the current contract.

      • Alan Horn

        I wonder if 25 million per season would get it done? Votto comes off the books in 2024 and Moose plus Suarez would be off by then(assuming both are still with us).

  12. Dennis Westrick

    Unbelievable! All of the teams battling for the 2nd WC spot with the Reds lost last night except the Mets! Let’s keep winning and catch the Padres, pass them and keep the other wolves (Cards, Phillies & Mets) in the rear view mirror!

    Reply
    • TR

      IMO the Cards are wolf #1 and they’re coming up this weekend.

      Reply
    • Bet on Red

      Dennis, lets be serious, the Mets are not fighting for a playoff spot. They are booing their own fans….lol

      Reply
  13. wkuchad

    Saw this on Rotoworld:

    Jesse Winker suffered a minor setback recently with his intercostal strain.

    There had been some hope that Winker might be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend, but that plan is going to have to be delayed at least a couple of days. The star outfielder was batting .307/.395/.560 with 24 home runs, 71 RBI, and 77 runs scored in 109 games played for the Reds when he went on the IL on August 16.

    SOURCE: Mark Sheldon on Twitter

    Reply
    • Jim Walker

      Bell made the source statement to the media beat group Tuesday in his pregame remarks.

      Reply
  14. SultanofSwaff

    I think the front office needs to make a serious effort to extend Miley. They could rework his contract…..something like 2 years/$28mil with a $20mil 3rd year club option with a sizeable buyout. You have to figure Castellanos is gone so you could use some of that money to extend Miley, Mahle, and Castillo. Like the Brewers, run prevention could be our path to perennial contention.

    Reply
  15. realist

    I am a big fan of Farmer, without him in the lineup the Reds lose this game. Not sure why though the Reds couldn’t move him to 3rd base and bring Barrio in to play shortstop. It would eliminate the need to ever play Suarez. Having Suarez bat 4th and Cabrera 6th was possibly the very worst lineup the Reds had all year Monday. Since Suarez is the worst offensive player in the league there is no excuse to ever play him. The base running blunder was no excuse blunder that probably cost the Reds Monday’s game.

    Reply
    • Alan Horn

      I too am big on Farmer. He has played a solid SS. I have been saying for a while to try him at 3B and try Barreo at SS. If it works you also have your backup SS and if it doesn’t(Barreo) you can move him back to SS. I am pretty sure he is a FA making well under 1 million. The Reds need to resign him to a multiyear contract as well as Castellanous and Miley. At this point we have no clue that Greene and Lodolo will be successful ML pitchers.

      Reply
      • Jim Walker

        Farmer is making $640K per Cot’s contracts. Last off season he was non-tendered by the Reds but subsequently signed a “split” contract which called for the 640K at MLB and $175K if he was on option to the minors.

        This year, he will be arbitration eligible. The earliest he would typically be out of arbitration via service time is after the 2024 season; but, he could always become a free agent before then via the non-tender route (again).

        Recall that Farmer’s projected role in 2021 was as the third catcher and sometime sub at the corner infield and outfield spots. Thus, the split contract because he figured to be “parked” at AAA unless needed due to injury.

        How the Reds view him moving forward this offseason will be interesting. I suspect they will offer him a very modest 2-3 year deal ahead of the tender date. If terms are not settled by the tender date, it will be anyone’s guess whether they offer arbitration or instead non-tender him again.

      • Alan Horn

        Thanks JIm. So it is up to the Reds on whether they retain him for next season. That is an easy choice in my opinion.

    • Doc

      And a bunch of other games this year. Farmer is the quiet MVP of this team.

      Reply
      • Frankie Tomatoes

        Kyle Farmer is currently 12th on the Cincinnati Reds in WAR. He is not anywhere near the most valuable Red this season.

      • Alan Horn

        Castellanous, Winker and Votto are ahead for MVP but he has certainly been valuable at SS as has India at 2B. Stephenson has been pretty good also as well as Naquin against RHs. Getting back to Farmer at SS. He lacks a little bit on range but has been great otherwise. His bat has been decent also for a SS.

      • Frankie Tomatoes

        Jonathan India has 3.6 WAR. Kyle Farmer has 1.4 WAR.

        One of those players is above average and one of them is below average.

  16. Jim Walker

    Lorenzen has been back right at 2 months and may be going through a bit of a tired arm period. Hopefully, the Reds can have someone (Sims, Cessa, or Santillan?) step it up a bit to let him get a little extra rest over the next week or so.

    Reply
    • Dennis Westrick

      Mikey Biceps lives or dies with his fastball. Right now the coroner is sitting in the outfield bleachers and collecting his mistakes!

      Reply
      • A

        The jury is out for me on whether to attempt to resign him and Givens. Givens has a somewhat better track record with the Reds. I think a better decision can be be made on both at season’s end.

      • redsfan4040

        I want Michael Lorenzen in the Reds bullpen next year. I don’t think he resigns here though. He’s been vocal about wanting to start, and I don’t think he has that opportunity in Cincinnati. He’s a California kid, so, my gut tells me he ends up back out west with a team he could start with (hometown Angels?).

        I’d be fine with the Reds resigning Givens, too, at the right price.

      • Jim Walker

        The first HR off Lorenzen was a changeup per MLB Gameday. Brantley also remarked at the time that Lorenzen’s changeup had been “flat” the last several outings and explained why in his opinion (finer positioning).

        The Happ HR was a fastball. Brantley’s comment about it was if you throw the same pitch in the same approximate (vertical) location 4 consecutive times, after the 2nd or 3rd pitch, a decent MLB hitter is going to be ready for it.

      • Alan Horn

        I think Lorenzen winds back up on the west coast as well. I wouldn’t overpay that much to keep him. He is so bulked up he is almost an injury waiting to happen. That being said, he has been a good reliever for the Reds when healthy.

      • Jim Walker

        I think Lorenzen goes somewhere that he thinks will give him a legitimate shot at being a two way player. That’s always been his dream. This is probably his first and only chance to try and chase it on anything resembling his own terms.

        The various sources such as Cot’s Contracts indicate that by the end of 2021, he will have made around $14M in signing bonus money and MLB level salary exclusive of any endorsement money. Unless someone blows him away with a huge contract just to pitch, I think he takes less for an opportunity to be a two way player.

  17. Dennis Westrick

    Given the Reds obvious deficiencies in CF, why not play Lorenzen there? He’s got the arm, some experience and his hitting is better than Shogo.

    Reply
    • wkuchad

      Until Winker is back, I really like our current starting outfielders vs righties (Cast, Naquin, and Schrock). I think the offensive output of these three is worth the hit to defense.

      Now, against a lefty, I’d may give Lorenzen a chance over DeShields.

      I really wish Senzel would have been healthy and returned. I’d love to see him (at a minimum) in CF against all lefties right now.

      Reply
      • TR

        I’d love to see Senzel at third base and not centerfield.

      • Alan Horn

        Senzel is one of many 3B candidates we have for next season. Senzel, Farmer, Lopez, Schrock along with Suarez and Moose. I hope we can move the latter two some way some how by next season. I worry about Winker’s back going forward. Is it a recurring type of injury. Retaining Castellanous will be big. If we lose him, we would possibly need new 3 OFs for next season if Winker isn’t healthy and assuming we get a RH bat to spell Naquin(whom we have to resign) in CF. We would still need some more OF bats for the bench as AA and Akiyama don’t seem to be a solution. The off season for the Reds will be critical.l

      • Jim Walker

        One step at a time. Let’s just get Senzel healthy and go from there.

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