Cincinnati’s win on Saturday night tied the series up and the Reds will look to win on Sunday to take the series victory over the Detroit Tigers and hold onto the top spot in the wild card race.
Starting Lineups
Detroit Tigers
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
| Akil Baddoo – CF | Jonathan India – 2B |
| Jonathan Schoop – 1B | Tyler Naquin – CF |
| Robbie Grossman – LF | Nick Castellanos – RF |
| Jeimer Candelario – 3B | Joey Votto – 1B |
| Eric Haase – C | Mike Moustakas – 3B |
| Niko Goodrum – SS | Kyle Farmer – SS |
| Victor Reyes – RF | Tucker Barnhart – C |
| Willi Castro – 2B | Max Schrock – LF |
| Casey Mize – SP | Luis Castillo – SP |
Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo
Outside of that one disastrous start in Cleveland on August 9th, Luis Castillo’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three months. Even accounting for that 8-run, 3.1 inning outing his ERA since the start of June is 2.84.
The splits for Luis Castillo are similar, but different. Righties have hit .260/.313/.421 against him this season. Lefties have hit .248/.353/.378 against him this season. The difference in OPS is just 4 points, but righties get there with more power and far fewer walks. Lefties show less power but draw walks more than twice as often. He’s pitched significantly better at home. His OPS against is 72 points lower in Cincinnati and his ERA is 3.57 (5.07 on the road).
Pitch usage from 2021
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Change | Slider | |
| Velo | 97.1 | 97.2 | 88.1 | 86.2 |
| Usage | 29% | 24% | 29% | 18% |
Casey Mize
The 1st overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casey Mize is having a heck of a rookie season for Detroit in 2021. He’s made 25 starts and has a 3.59 ERA while throwing 135.1 innings. He doesn’t walk many batters, giving up just 39 free passes on the season, but he also doesn’t miss many bats – he has just 104 strikeouts on the season.
The splits are dramatic for Mize. Lefties have hit him well, posting a .258/.331/.533 line against him on the season with 16 home runs in 252 plate appearances. He has dominated righties, though, holding them to a .215/.281/.328 line with just 7 home runs in 299 plate appearances. His home and road splits are quite similar when it comes to OPS against and ERA. The one thing notable between the two, though, is that he’s allowed 15 home runs on the road in 74.2 innings and just 8 at home in 60.2 innings.
Pitch usage from 2021
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Splitter | Slider | Curve | |
| Velo | 93.9 | 93.2 | 85.8 | 86.1 | 81.3 |
| Usage | 27% | 24% | 14% | 28% | 7% |
When and Where
- Game time: 1:10pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 74°, cloudy, 17% chance of rain
News and Notes
Brad Brach activated, Alejo Lopez optioned
Prior to the game today the Cincinnati Reds activated Brad Brach from the 10-day injured list and optioned Alejo Lopez to Triple-A Louisville. You can read more about that here if you’re interested.
Young Joey
September 5, 2007: Joey Votto bangs a homer for his first major league hit. #RedsVault pic.twitter.com/2QxOxiZf7l
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 5, 2021
NL Central Standings
Playoff odds via Fangraphs
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff % |
| Brewers | 83 | 54 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Reds | 73 | 64 | 10.0 | 56.9% |
| Cardinals | 69 | 65 | 12.5 | 6.2% |
| Cubs | 62 | 75 | 21.0 | 0.0% |
| Pirates | 48 | 88 | 34.5 | 0.0% |
Here’s my hoping for today and going forward. A win puts us 10 over .500 and keeps the pack of followers at bay. From there through the end of September, I’m really hoping we can stay double-digits over .500. That would mean we’re winning more than we’re losing and we keep our seat at the #163 table (even if it means a trip out west).
I’m thinking I’m much more of a Bernie Brewer fan now. If they end up on the top of the NL heap and we win Game #163 (hoping it’s against SF), then we at least get to play the Bernies for the next round. All that, unless I’m totally mistaken about who we’d play, would make an exciting October. But we still have to get through September first.
Here’s to LC and pitching on a day where it isn’t blistering hot, but it’s not cold weather either. Let’s hope he can be efficient and send those Tiggers back up I-75 with a tear in their eye and some bad memories of today at GABP.
I would think that the wild card team would have to play the team with the overall best record. 1 v 4, 2 v 3. I’m not totally sure about this tho
The weather thing and Castillo has never been a problem till this season. It had nothing to do with the weather. He was simply not making good pitches early in the season.
Today is a good day to start a winning streak!
+500
Be strong today LC! The win last night recovered the game lost in the NL Wild Card standings against the Cards & the Phillies! Let’s keep the positive vibes going! After their home game against the Astros today the Friars have a short 2 game home series against the Halos! Then they start a brutal 10 game road trip against the Dodgers, Giants and the Dirty Birds. Depending on how they fair against their NL West foes may be rooting for them to win against the Cards!
Straight uphill climb for the Friars, especially with LA and SF.’
I still have my sights set on the 23rd and 24th. Hope we can meet up. Still looking at the long-term weather before I buy seats for either game.
SO we are actually trying to keep Brach….interesting
NO WALKS!!! Please … nothing good EVER comes from walking the opponents.
Need one of our GIDP’s right here, right now.
Would Castillo stop trying so hard to make his pitches dart this way and that all while painting the corner and just throw a dang strike?
All it’s doing is running up his pitch count.
Half of these pitches aren’t even competitive
OK, I can breathe now …
Way to many walks by the Reds pitchers. To many base runners and just as important driving up pitch counts. Look at Mahle last night 5 innings, thus bull pen had to cover 4 innings, not a winning formula.
Nope … cannot consistently let the oppo’s have free passes and pile on pitches.
>>>
Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But they haven’t figured that one out yet. And when we don’t give up a walk, we go 3 and 2 too often. The Reds pitchers are constantly behind in the count,..which leads to always pitching in a hitter’s count, not to mention the number of pitchers. The Reds pitchers are non-stop laboring throughout the game. Someone should notice that besides the fans, and do something about it. Miley is the only one who is not AFRAID to throw a strike!!! None of the rest of them believe in their ability to actually throw a strike without it getting hammered. It’s not true, of course. They have good stuff. They just do not have confidence in their stuff,..i.e. the are cowards!!! Sparky would not have ever put up with a bunch of pitchers who are afraid to throw a strike.
Cy Young Mize mowing us down …
And I do realize he was a former #1 overall.
Moose just looks so slow with the bat.
He definitely does.
Farmer at least gave it a ride.
I really don’t like waiting until the 2nd time through the lineup to start hitting with authority, but if that’s what it takes …
Now to see if LC can settle in to a more efficient inning.
Not sure how Badoo got out of the way of that one.
Time to go low and away … but not so he pokes one out for a base hit!!
Matrix audition?
+250
Nice reference!
How many DP’s have we turned vs. the rest of the league or MLB? It seems like a TON of them, often in critical situations. I know the 5 we pulled off in that game tied a record.
I may have to look that up.
Hmmm … if I’m reading this right, we’re in the middle of the pack. Big boost over a year ago, though.
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/double-plays-per-game
top 2 are KC and Miami.
3 of the bottom 4 are very good pitching teams.
Seems like the pitchers that allow fewer base runners get fewer DPs
Interesting stat there – a huge improvement indeed over last year. I suggest that the difference there is India vs Moustakas at 2B. No comparison there between the athleticism of those two.
Also – no Trevor Bauer this year. He just didn’t allow many baserunners, and he had a mess of strikeouts.
I think those two differences may explain at least part of the welcome rise in double plays turned by the infield defense.
Mize out after three… how about that
Is Shogo still in the active roster? Haven’t seen or heard of in a while.
Active … yes. Invisible … apparently.
Indy Reds fans guy Urena in. One of the many players he wanted the Reds to trade for.
Do not understand why they got rid of Mize so early and at a low PC. Reds taking advantage though
Inning limiting
I’m thinking he’s on 2nd with nobody out … yep
That sets up some trouble if LC can’t set them down.
That works. Another K for Grossman would be nice.
Now we really need one of those GIDP’s
And that’s probably all she wrote for today unless we can really find the sticks. I realize we have 4 more sets of AB’s, but so far we’re just not figuring these Tiggers out AGAIN!
Can’t beat teams like this at home won’t win wildcard – plain as that . Reds can’t handle their own business against subpar teams , and at home on top of that .
This will be 4 series losses in a row, 12 over to 8 over. Let’s all be honest this does not look like a playoff team right now and time is running out.
Not going to make the post season winning once every 3 or 4 days. Winker’s bat is really missed. Can’t compete with three #8 hitters in your line up.
Just as well be a 10 run lead – that’s how these dudes acting . Going thru motions … gonna find themselves sitting at home when playoffs start .
ALWAYS playing from behind , ALWAYS
This has been 2 bad weeks for the Reds, lose today that’s 8 of 12. The upcoming 9 game road trip is vital, they must have a winning trip or the season could be over.
Could it be that Hinch, despite his past cheating ways, knows how to get the absolute best out of his team right now? Flares the other way, flexibility on multiple fronts, some good young pitching that knows how to find the strike zone? I know they aren’t the team to beat this year, but it does make you wonder what 2022 and beyond might look like.
Just throwing it out there given the current score.
For the first time in a long time, I think the Tigers are a good, up-and-coming team with some real promise in the near future. They got off to a horrible start early in the season. If it were not for that, they might be competing for a playoff spot right now. At the moment, overall, I think the Reds are a better team and should be beating them. But the Tigers are young and athletic, and should be a force to be reckoned with in the next several years.
As for Hinch, I’ve thought him to be a good manager, and he probably still is, but my respect for him dropped considerably with the cheating scandal and how he personally responded to the situation as it unfolded.
+250
And his comments about Jack Morris didn’t help my perception of him, either.
Let’ face it they played 6 against the Marlins and Tigers and won 2, the only reason they still have any chance is because nobody else has won much either.
Yesterday was the first time Votto came thru in a clutch situation in the last couple of weeks….his slump along with no Winker is killing the reds
I agree Winker not playing and Votto not doing much is killing this team.
Moustakas still can’t get it going. I know he had the injury, and it is taking time to get back in to the swing of things for him….but I think he has had enough time. Maybe he is starting to decline in his career, and getting older, obviously, Reds really need to get Winker back asap!
This maybe the worst game for the offense all year, when you consider what is at stake, this has got to change on road trip or season is over.
It really gets old watching Moose/Suarez, Farmer, Barnhart and the left fielder du jour fail at the plate game after game.
Brach in….which means David Bell waving the white flag, giving up on this game. Look for the Tigers to add a run or runs this inning off of Brach.
Dude should have been DFAed first time around – and you called it , already allowed run soon as he gets opportunity . Pathetic effort all around today . Beach has no
business back on this roster . But let’s let the kid in AAA who hasn’t allowed a run just sit there .
Dumbest front office in MLB .
..meant Brach
Another one of those “must win” games against sub-.500 teams that is slipping away.
Yeah, Votto is in a slump. He was so hot, did you expect it to last the rest of the year?
A team is just as good as their record says they are. The Reds’ bullpen was just awful for part of the year, and still loses games.
As Sparky Anderson used to say…The cream always rises to the top. If you don’t rise to the top, maybe you don’t have no cream anymore.
They don’t play well under pressure. I expect them to go on a tear once it no longer matters.
Castillo should be leading the MLB pitchers in lack of run support and poor defense… wow he has had very bad luck aside of the first outings he made which were really struggles
Sure seems like it!
That’s the final nail in our coffin for today and this series. Now we rely on the better play of others to see if we hold on to #163 for today or let that slip away once again. Only 8 over .500 (barring a near-miraculous comeback) isn’t a good position from where I sit. Road trip will be crucial and, likely, brutal.
The Reds still have two more innings to pull this one out. But I think their problem is no home runs = no win.
They rely too much on home runs. They don’t have many innings where they string together singles, doubles, etc. and score runs. I don’t know if it’s a matter of faulty lineup construction or if they just don’t have consistent hitters with men on base.
Better minds than mine can debate this.
Reds are only in the wild care chase because the Cards, Padres, Phillies, and Braves are not setting the league on fire.
The Reds “luck” may be running out if they don’t start scoring more runs.
Yes. I don’t quite know what the solution is, but I think you’re right. They’ve reverted, it seems, to relying on the home run. Early in the year, as I recall, they were spraying the ball all over the place one after another and scoring loads of runs with only the occasional HR.
Home runs are good, obviously, but they cannot be the focal point of one’s offensive philosophy.
Bell wastes not time getting Brach into a game.
Road trip is important coming up. Reds can go 7-4 or 8-3 would be huge. What a fun time to be a Reds Fan.
It is a fun time. It’s also frustrating because we’re in September playing for a spot in the post-season party. And we’re underperforming and in slumps. But that has to serve to remind us that we’re a better team than we have been.
Picked a bad time to slump for sure, but with the way the bullpen was. Who thought we would be in a playoff spot Sept 5th.
Good thing speed doesn’t matter in baseball anymore (sarcasm).
Reds give up stolen bases left and right. That guy scored all the way from first base on a single. Every team the Reds play are running the Reds ragged. My eyes tell me that other teams are far more athletic than are the Reds. The Reds management better figure out how to start adding some speed to the team starting this off-season.
+1
Just because they activated Brach does not mean he should be inserted into the game today. When he went in I asked “why?” The guy has t pitched in forever and he wasn’t very good much of that time. Granted, the offense is the issue, but why out him in there when the last couple guys looked so good. Sure enough, he walks the speedy lead off hitter, who scores and racks on insurance run. Hard enough to come back down 3 but he made it even more difficult.
After fallowing this team last year the last two weeks have almost made me wave the white flag. As for Votto nobody expected him to stay as hot as he was, but I didn’t see him going ice cold either at least he is not alone.
Ownership has embraced losing why would the outcome be different
I don’t think it’s an “active embrace”. I see it more as a wimpy, whining “We’re just a small market team” smoke screen that doesn’t foster a competitive, do what it takes to win attitude. Instead, they play the high-paid veterans and then scratch their … um … heads while the team slumps and younger players (read “the future”) don’t get playing time.
Absolutely embraced
15 years and 4 seasons of winning records
The big signing of the off season was Doolittle
Votto’s been taking too many close pitches. Also, he has nobody behind him in this lineup that might a force a pitcher to throw him better pitches.
At least Schrock battled for 13 pitches and got on base.
He has a good swing and he battles. He can hit to all fields. We need more guys like him.
I don’t think Brach is long for this team. Winker is surely being missed right now
When the tigers just scored that run from first on a hit & run….I started to think : when was the last time the reds had a hit & run?…..this year?
We were talking about that the other day and the answer i can’t recall.
Great point. I can’t think of one time off the top of my head. It just points out the lack of speed on this team.
A little inside-out flare on that inside pitch. Nice work, RoY.
Billy Hamilton could still be here. Yet, in today’s game speed and defense seem not to matter. He has done well for whitespace.
Pitch hitting for Naquin. I quit today’s game.
Finally score on a wild pitch! We’ll take it. Drive in some more!
This is what we signed Cabrera for, right?
That was the press release … he “pounds” lefties
Well, at least he got the BB
I think they brought in the closer too early…. TIme for a Blastianos
Well … this sets up an interesting situation.
Now up to JV
Rats.
We needed more out of that mini-rally.
And no…. but we did get 20 pitches out of their closer.
That is something. And I believe Soto is a “typical closer” where getting over 20 pitches and having to extend for another inning doesn’t usually fare that well. Problem for us is we’ll send up the lower part of our order. And they can do it … but we’ve not seen much of it happening of late. Not to the extent we really need right now.
K’s from our studs on stuff well out of the zone. When it rains, it pours … and we’re in a hurricane at the moment.
In fairness. 99mph heat followed by 85 slider. I know they get paid to hit, but still…
I always say baseball players are phenomenal with here hand/eye coordination
Absolutely. But still, it is what those two guys in particular get paid to do.
Votto overmatched. Again.
I think Votto, Moustakis and Cabrera would be a great core to build a church softball team around. Look the part, slow and old.
Garrett??? I mean, really Tinker??? You actually giving up for reals???
Inning set up for your big hitters (and big paychecks) to come up big ….not!
Not bad at all AG not bad at all
I hate to say this but the way this team looks I am not 100% convinced they will play over .500. After today 24 games left do they have 9 wins left in them. As you can tell I am very frustrated with this team right now, from top to bottom. Bringing up Schrock may have sealed the deal.
We may disagree on a few things, however I am right there with you. I try to stay positive etc, however with Bell’s management style and stuff. With no hit and runs or bunting a runner over. Bullpen wasn’t his fault earlier in season, but now that area is better. I hate to say it but 9 or 10 wins may not be happening
Well, well, well … that was a pleasant surprise. AG was efficient and on point.
Last chance for our guys to spoil the party heading back up I-75.
While I’m consoling myself with that Geno out being opposite field …
Have a great day, everybody.
Enjoy your Sunday everyone
Would be nice if the Brewers played like the ‘27 Yankees against the Cardinals like they do when they play against us.
and once again we are here asking the Houston Astros for their support
Really pathetic effort by the Reds today, you can’t lose 2of 3 to the Tigers either, horrible!!!!!!!!
If the Reds are going to continue losing series to teams like the Marlins, Cardinals and Tigers (and next the Cubs?), then they had better beat up on the likes of not only the Pirates, but the Dodgers and White Sox as well!
Votto, last 15 games hitting 178. Pathetic. Hopefully there’s a DH next year. Looks tired and old.